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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2012

Series Bosch System Development

State-of-the-art (SOA) carbon dioxide (CO2) reduction technology for the International Space Station produces methane as a byproduct. This methane is subsequently vented overboard. The associated loss of hydrogen ultimately reduces the mass of oxygen that can be recovered from CO2 in a closed-loop life support system. As an alternative to SOA CO2 reduction technology, NASA is exploring a Series-Bosch system capable of reducing CO2 with hydrogen to form water and solid carbon. This results in 100% theoretical recovery of oxygen from metabolic CO2. In the past, Bosch-based technology did not trade favorably against SOA technology due to a high power demand, low reaction efficiencies, concerns with carbon containment, and large resupply requirements necessary to replace expended catalyst cartridges. An alternative approach to Bosch technology, labeled "Series-Bosch," employs a new system design with optimized multi-stage reactors and a membrane-based separation and recycle capability. Multi-physics modeling of the first stage reactor, along with chemical process modeling of the integrated system, has resulted in a design with potential to trade significantly better than previous Bosch technology. The modeling process and resulting system architecture selection are discussed.

Abney, Morgan B.↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Grad-Shafranov model for compact quasisymmetric stellarators

A Grad-Shafranov equation (GSE) valid for compact quasisymmetric stellarators is derived by an asymptotic expansion around a vacuum field carried to first order. We obtain an equation for the existence of flux surfaces leading up to the GSE. The flux surface label must simultaneously satisfy the existence equation and the GSE, which generally leads to an overdetermined problem. We show how the overdetermined problem can be resolved within our model for a class of hybrid devices similar to that studied by Henneberg and Plunk [Phys. Rev. Res. 6, L022052 (2024)]. We are also able to solve the existence equation for flux surfaces analytically in the most general case by introducing a special coordinate system. This will enable us to carry out an optimization seeking to minimize the error in our GSE while obeying the flux surface existence equation, which will allow us to find solutions outside the class of hybrid devices. This will allow for a coarse-grained approximate search in the space of quasisymmetric equilibria that should be faster than a conventional stellarator optimization. Nevertheless, it would still be necessary to fine-tune the approximate solutions using conventional tools to obtain a more precise optimized equilibrium.

Nikulsin, N. (ORCID:0000000318611777)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Nanomaterial Synthesis Insights from Machine Learning of Scientific Articles by Extracting, Structuring, and Visualizing Knowledge

Nanomaterials of varying compositions and morphologies are of interest for many applications from catalysis to optics, but the synthesis of nanomaterials and their scale-up are most often time-consuming and Edisonian processes. Information gleaned from the scientific literature can help inform and accelerate nanomaterials development, but again, searching the literature and digesting the information are time-consuming manual processes for researchers. To help address these challenges, here we developed scientific article-processing tools that extract and structure information from the text and figures of nanomaterials articles, thereby enabling the creation of a personalized knowledgebase for nanomaterials synthesis that can be mined to help inform further nanomaterials development. Starting with a corpus of ~35k nanomaterials-related articles, we developed models to classify articles according to the nanomaterial composition and morphology, extract synthesis protocols from within the articles’ text, and extract, normalize, and categorize chemical terms within synthesis protocols. We demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed pipeline on an expert-labeled set of nanomaterials synthesis articles, achieving 100% accuracy on composition prediction, 95% accuracy on morphology prediction, 0.99 AUC on protocol identification, and up to a 0.87 F1-score on chemical entity recognition. In addition to processing articles’ text, microscopy images of nanomaterials within the articles are also automatically identified and analyzed to determine the nanomaterials’ morphologies and size distributions. To enable users to easily explore the database, we developed a complementary browser-based visualization tool that provides flexibility in comparing across subsets of articles of interest. We use these tools and information to identify trends in nanomaterials synthesis, such as the correlation of certain reagents with various nanomaterial morphologies, which is useful in guiding hypotheses and reducing the potential parameter space during experimental design.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2019

Carbon Nanomaterials for Biosensing Applications

Biosensing devices comprised of carbon nanotubes and nanofibers have been developed for astronaut crew point-of-care. Their inherent nanometer scale, high conductivity, wide potential window, good biocompatibility and well-defined surface chemistry make them ideal candidates as biosensor electrodes. Here, we report two studies using carbon nanotube and carbon nanofiber electrodes for biomedical applications. First, a 3x3 electrode device, with each electrode containing 40,000 carbon nanofiber nanoelectrodes was fabricated on silicon using traditional microfabrication processing. The device was demonstrated as a multiplexed immunosensor for simultaneous, label-free detection of cardiac troponin-I, C-reactive protein and myoglobin. Antibodies specific to cardiac troponin-I, C-reactive protein and myoglobin were covalently bound to the CNF surface and were characterized using electrochemical impedance spectroscopy and differential pulse voltammetry. Each step of the modification process resulted in changes in resistance to charge transfer due to the changes at the electrode surface upon antibody immobilization and binding to the specific cardiac protein. The real-time label free detection of the three cardiac markers from pure components and mixtures was demonstrated with high sensitivity, down to 0.2 ng/mL, and good selectivity. Detection in human blood serum did not present false positives from non-specific protein adsorption. More recently, this detection scheme has been applied to inkjet printed carbon nanotube electrodes on Kapton and paper. Printed devices have several unique advantages including simple and inexpensive fabrication. The results demonstrate that these sensors can serve a miniaturized, low cost device for detection of proteins in complex mixtures making this platform a good candidate for early stage diagnosis of myocardial infarction. Future inkjet printed devices can be fabricated have the added advantage in their suitability to be manufactured in an in-space, microgravity environment.

carbon nanotubes↗
DOE OSTI2020

A deep neural network to search for new long-lived particles decaying to jets

A tagging algorithm to identify jets that are significantly displaced from the proton-proton (pp) collision region in the CMS detector at the LHC is presented. Displaced jets can arise from the decays of long-lived particles (LLPs), which are predicted by several theoretical extensions of the standard model. The tagger is a multiclass classifier based on a deep neural network, which is parameterised according to the proper decay length $\mathrm{c}\tau_0$ of the LLP. A novel scheme is defined to reliably label jets from LLP decays for supervised learning. Samples of pp collision data, recorded by the CMS detector at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV, and simulated events are used to train the neural network. Domain adaptation by backward propagation is performed to improve the simulation modelling of the jet class probability distributions observed in pp collision data. The potential performance of the tagger is demonstrated with a search for long-lived gluinos, a manifestation of split supersymmetric models. The tagger provides a rejection factor of 10 000 for jets from standard model processes, while maintaining an LLP jet tagging efficiency of 30-80% for gluinos with 1 mm $\leq$ $c\tau_0$ $\leq$ 10 m. The expected coverage of the parameter space for split supersymmetry is presented.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS1962

Effect of Alpha-Particle Irradiation on Brain Glycogen in the Rat

The studies of Klatzo, Miquel, Tobias and Haymaker (1961) have shown that one of the earliest and most sensitive indications of the effects of alpha-particle irradiation on rat bran is the appearance of glycogen granules mainly in the neuroglia of the exposed area of the brain. Periodic acid-Schiff (PAS) positive, alpha-amylase soluble granules were demonstrated within 12 hr after irradiation, preceding by approximately 36 hr the first microscopically detectable vascular permeability disturbances, as shown by the fluorescein labeled serum protein technique. These studies suggested that the injurious effects of alpha-particle energy were on cellular elements primarily, according to the physical properties and distribution of the radiation in the tissue, and that the vascular permeability disturbances played a secondary role in pathogenesis. The purpose of this study was to correlate the histochemical observations on glycogen with a quantitative assessment of the glycogen in the irradiated brain tissue. It is felt that such a study may contribute to the understanding of radiation injury at the molecular level. A practical aspect of this problem is that the information on biological radiation effects due to accelerated particles from the cyclotron source, is employed in this study, is applicable to radiation from cosmic particles both in free space and entrapped in the Van Allen belts.

Wolfe, L. S.↗
DOE OSTI2023

The LSST AGN Data Challenge: Selection Methods

Abstract Development of the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) includes a series of Data Challenges (DCs) arranged by various LSST Scientific Collaborations that are taking place during the project's preoperational phase. The AGN Science Collaboration Data Challenge (AGNSC-DC) is a partial prototype of the expected LSST data on active galactic nuclei (AGNs), aimed at validating machine learning approaches for AGN selection and characterization in large surveys like LSST. The AGNSC-DC took place in 2021, focusing on accuracy, robustness, and scalability. The training and the blinded data sets were constructed to mimic the future LSST release catalogs using the data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Stripe 82 region and the XMM-Newton Large Scale Structure Survey region. Data features were divided into astrometry, photometry, color, morphology, redshift, and class label with the addition of variability features and images. We present the results of four submitted solutions to DCs using both classical and machine learning methods. We systematically test the performance of supervised models (support vector machine, random forest, extreme gradient boosting, artificial neural network, convolutional neural network) and unsupervised ones (deep embedding clustering) when applied to the problem of classifying/clustering sources as stars, galaxies, or AGNs. We obtained classification accuracy of 97.5% for supervised models and clustering accuracy of 96.0% for unsupervised ones and 95.0% with a classic approach for a blinded data set. We find that variability features significantly improve the accuracy of the trained models, and correlation analysis among different bands enables a fast and inexpensive first-order selection of quasar candidates.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
NASA NTRS2006

Radiation Challenges for Electronics in the Vision for Space Exploration

The slides present a brief snapshot discussing electronics and exploration-related challenges. Radiation effects have been the prime target, however, electronic parts reliability issues must also be considered. Modern electronics are designed with a 3-5 year lifetime. Upscreening does not improve reliability, merely determines inherent levels. Testing costs are driven by device complexity; they increase tester complexity, beam requirements, and facility choices. Commercial devices may improve performance, but are not cost panaceas. There is need for a more cost-effective access to high energy heavy ion facilities such as NSCL and NSRL. Costs for capable test equipment can run more than $1M for full testing.

LaBel, Kenneth A.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Lighting System Control Data to Improve Design and Operation: Tunable Lighting System Data from NICU Patient Rooms

The advancement of LED and controls technology, computing capacity, and software provides new opportunities for researchers and designers to work together to further optimize spaces for occupant benefit. Here, lighting system control data from five neonatal intensive care unit patient rooms was collected over a 25-week monitoring period and analyzed to better understand occupant response to a tunable lighting system with automatic transitions throughout the day. Lighting systems are very rarely refined after installation based on actual use. Objective data detailing how the lighting system is used by the actual occupants highlights the opportunities for optimization after installation and provides insight for improving the next design. As use of the data becomes more commonplace, it can be leveraged for design recommendations. The collection of the data required no additional cost beyond the time for examining the data. The analysis revealed several clear opportunities for improvement, including adjustments to the default control setting at night, re-labeling of the control stations, and adjustments to the nighttime fade rate. The patient room occupants were active users of the different zones, dimming options, and manual overrides made available by the lighting system.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2009

Using Decision Trees to Detect and Isolate Simulated Leaks in the J-2X Rocket Engine

The goal of this work was to use data-driven methods to automatically detect and isolate faults in the J-2X rocket engine. It was decided to use decision trees, since they tend to be easier to interpret than other data-driven methods. The decision tree algorithm automatically "learns" a decision tree by performing a search through the space of possible decision trees to find one that fits the training data. The particular decision tree algorithm used is known as C4.5. Simulated J-2X data from a high-fidelity simulator developed at Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne and known as the Detailed Real-Time Model (DRTM) was used to "train" and test the decision tree. Fifty-six DRTM simulations were performed for this purpose, with different leak sizes, different leak locations, and different times of leak onset. To make the simulations as realistic as possible, they included simulated sensor noise, and included a gradual degradation in both fuel and oxidizer turbine efficiency. A decision tree was trained using 11 of these simulations, and tested using the remaining 45 simulations. In the training phase, the C4.5 algorithm was provided with labeled examples of data from nominal operation and data including leaks in each leak location. From the data, it "learned" a decision tree that can classify unseen data as having no leak or having a leak in one of the five leak locations. In the test phase, the decision tree produced very low false alarm rates and low missed detection rates on the unseen data. It had very good fault isolation rates for three of the five simulated leak locations, but it tended to confuse the remaining two locations, perhaps because a large leak at one of these two locations can look very similar to a small leak at the other location.

Schwabacher, Mark A.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Effect of calmodulin antagonists on the growth and graviresponsiveness of primary roots of maize

We examined the effect of calmodulin (CaM) antagonists applied at the root tip on root growth, gravity-induced root curvature, and the movement of calcium across the root tip and auxin (IAA) across the elongation zone of gravistimulated roots. All of the CaM antagonists used in these studies delayed gravity-induced curvature at a concentration (1 micromole) that did not affect root growth. Calmodulin antagonists (> or = 1 micromole) inhibited downward transport of label from 45Ca2+ across the caps of gravistimulated roots relative to the downward transport of 45Ca2+ in gravistimulated roots which were not treated with CaM antagonists. Application of CaM antagonists at the root tip (> or = 1 micromole) also decreased the relative downward movement of label from 3H-IAA applied to the upper side of the elongation zone of gravistimulated roots. In general, tip application of antagonists inhibited neither the upward transport of 45Ca2+ in the root tip nor the upward movement of label from 3H-IAA in the elongation zone of gravistimulated roots. Thus, roots treated with CaM antagonists > or = 1 micromole become less graviresponsive and exhibit reduced or even a reversal of downward polarity of calcium transport across the root tip and IAA transport across the elongation zone. The results indicate that calmodulin-regulated events play a role in root gravitropism.

NASA Discipline Plant Biology↗
DOE OSTI2025

DNABERT-S: pioneering species differentiation with species-aware DNA embeddings

SUMMARY: We introduce DNABERT-S, a tailored genome model that develops species-aware embeddings to naturally cluster and segregate DNA sequences of different species in the embedding space. Differentiating species from genomic sequences (i.e. DNA and RNA) is vital yet challenging, since many real-world species remain uncharacterized, lacking known genomes for reference. Embedding-based methods are therefore used to differentiate species in an unsupervised manner. DNABERT-S builds upon a pre-trained genome foundation model named DNABERT-2. To encourage effective embeddings to error-prone long-read DNA sequences, we introduce Manifold Instance Mixup (MI-Mix), a contrastive objective that mixes the hidden representations of DNA sequences at randomly selected layers and trains the model to recognize and differentiate these mixed proportions at the output layer. We further enhance it with the proposed Curriculum Contrastive Learning (C2LR) strategy. Empirical results on 28 diverse datasets show DNABERT-S's effectiveness, especially in realistic label-scarce scenarios. For example, it identifies twice more species from a mixture of unlabeled genomic sequences, doubles the Adjusted Rand Index (ARI) in species clustering, and outperforms the top baseline's performance in 10-shot species classification with just a 2-shot training. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: Model, codes, and data are publically available at https://github.com/MAGICS-LAB/DNABERT_S.

Zhou, Zhihan↗
DOE OSTI2024

Frost Tables, NGEE Areas B, C and D, Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska, 2012-2014

This dataset represents spatially intensive thaw depth surveys with individual point measurements spaced ~0.5 m apart. The three ~10x10m grids cover an ice wedge and a portion of its two neighboring polygons. The data contain thaw depth, frost table elevation, ground surface elevation, active layer depth and surface water inundation across three seasons (2012, 2013 and 2014) at Utqiagvik (Barrow) NGEE Areas B, C and D. There are a total of 69 extracted files separated by month, year, and area. The data were originally provided in excel workbooks, these files have been preserved within the zip "Original_Files." The files were transformed for archiving with images pulled out into JPEGs, data preserved as CSV files and some methodological information preserved as TXT files. Some functions, features, and formatting were lost during the transformation. Missing data were defined with blank cells. Additional documentation can be found in files labelled with "information.txt" file endings.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).[2024-07-15] Renamed BEO_Thaw_Depth_Frost_Table_Area_*_*_*.csv, BEO_Thaw_Depth_Frost_Table_Area_*_*_*_Plot_1.JPEG, and BEO_Thaw_Depth_Frost_Table_Area_*_*_*_Plot_2.JPEG names that had E or L to be Early or Late. Renamed BEO_Thaw_Depth_Frost_Table_Area_*_*_*_Plot_1.JPEG, BEO_Thaw_Depth_Frost_Table_Area_*_*_*_Plot_2.JPEG, and BEO_Thaw_Depth_Frost_Table_Area_*_information_Plot_1.JPEG to BEO_Thaw_Depth_Frost_Table_Area_*_*_*_Gridpoints.JPEG, BEO_Thaw_Depth_Frost_Table_Area_*_*_*_3Dgraphic.JPEG, and BEO_Thaw_Depth_Frost_Table_Area_*_information_LiDAR_DEM.JPEG, respectively. Updated BEO_Thaw_Depth_Frost_Table_flmd.csv file to reflect above updates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2008

Part Marking and Identification Materials' for MISSE

The Materials on International Space Station Experiment (MISSE) is being conducted with funding from NASA and the U.S. Department of Defense, in order to evaluate candidate materials and processes for flight hardware. MISSE modules include test specimens used to validate NASA technical standards for part markings exposed to harsh environments in low-Earth orbit and space, including: atomic oxygen, ultraviolet radiation, thermal vacuum cycling, and meteoroid and orbital debris impact. Marked test specimens are evaluated and then mounted in a passive experiment container (PEC) that is affixed to an exterior surface on the International Space Station (ISS). They are exposed to atomic oxygen and/or ultraviolet radiation for a year or more before being retrieved and reevaluated. Criteria include percent contrast, axial uniformity, print growth, error correction, and overall grade. MISSE 1 and 2 (2001-2005), MISSE 3 and 4 (2006-2007), and MISSE 5 (2005-2006) have been completed to date. Acceptable results were found for test specimens marked with Data Matrix(TradeMark) symbols by Intermec Inc. and Robotic Vision Systems Inc using: laser bonding, vacuum arc vapor deposition, gas assisted laser etch, chemical etch, mechanical dot peening, laser shot peening, laser etching, and laser induced surface improvement. MISSE 6 (2008-2009) is exposing specimens marked by DataLase(Registed TradeMark), Chemico technologies Inc., Intermec Inc., and tesa with laser-markable paint, nanocode tags, DataLase and tesa laser markings, and anodized metal labels.

Roxby, Donald↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing Docking Accuracy with PECAN2, a 3D Atomic Neural Network Trained without Co-Complex Crystal Structures

Decades of drug development research have explored a vast chemical space for highly active compounds. The exponential growth of virtual libraries enables easy access to billions of synthesizable molecules. Computational modeling, particularly molecular docking, utilizes physics-based calculations to prioritize molecules for synthesis and testing. Nevertheless, the molecular docking process often yields docking poses with favorable scores that prove to be inaccurate with experimental testing. To address these issues, several approaches using machine learning (ML) have been proposed to filter incorrect poses based on the crystal structures. However, most of the methods are limited by the availability of structure data. Here, we propose a new pose classification approach, PECAN2 (Pose Classification with 3D Atomic Network 2), without the need for crystal structures, based on a 3D atomic neural network with Point Cloud Network (PCN). The new approach uses the correlation between docking scores and experimental data to assign labels, instead of relying on the crystal structures. We validate the proposed classifier on multiple datasets including human mu, delta, and kappa opioid receptors and SARS-CoV-2 Mpro. Our results demonstrate that leveraging the correlation between docking scores and experimental data alone enhances molecular docking performance by filtering out false positives and false negatives.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Human Systems Risk Network - A Ranking Analysis of Risks

INTRODUCTION The Human Systems Risk Board (HSRB) is responsible for understanding, managing, and mitigating the risks associated with spaceflight. For a particular mission, the HSRB assigns each human system risk a rating on a 5x5 grid assessing its likelihood and consequence, which is ultimately used to compare and rank the risks. The HSRB approaches risk management by primarily establishing the context of each human system risk individually with the understanding that mitigating one risk might affect the likelihood, consequence, and mitigation approaches of another. To support this effort the HSRB, subject matter experts, and risk custodian teams created directed acyclic graphs (DAG), often called a causal graph, for the twenty-nine risks. In this presentation, we propose a new ranking algorithm for the risks which includes the downstream influence of each risk according to the information in the DAGs and provide an application of graph theoretic tools. METHODS In 2014, Mindock and Klaus proposed a taxonomy for human system risk influences which we have adopted to categorize the nodes in each DAG. Analyzing the nodes that correspond to the risks in this taxonomy allows us to analyze and understand how each risk influences the others. We construct an auxiliary network, which we call the Primary Risk Network (PRN), where the nodes are the twenty-nine space flight risks and, a directed edge connects Risk A to Risk B if Risk A has some influence on the likelihood or consequence of Risk B as described in the DAGS. We perform a variety of graph theoretic ranking methods on the nodes (or risks) in the PRN, including Katz centrality. RESULTS We rank the nodes in the PRN using the Katz centrality score. The ten risks with the highest score are pictured in Figure 1, colored (light to dark) according to their score. We analyze other centrality measures like betweenness centrality, eigenvector centrality, and the Estrada index, and provide the meaning of the corresponding rankings in terms of the risks. Future work includes analyzing the other categories in the taxonomy defined by Mindock and Klaus [1]. For example, we are interested in analyzing the nodes that are labeled as countermeasures or capabilities and perform similar analysis to measure their effect on certain medical conditions.

dag↗
DOE OSTI2026

Generation of random geological models using multi-randomization for machine learning

Generating high-fidelity geological models is essential for advancing machine learning (ML) methods in automated seismic interpretation. For instance, seismic images paired with corresponding fault labels are foundational for ML-based fault detection from seismic migration sections. While several open-access datasets of random geological models exist, open-source tools specifically designed to produce large volumes of such models for ML applications remain scarce. To address this gap, we present RGM (Random Geological Model), an open-source software package for efficiently generating 2D and 3D synthetic geological models tailored for ML workflows. RGM supports the creation of diverse model components, including medium property distributions (P-/S-wave velocities and density), seismic reflectivity images (i.e., synthetic migration sections), relative geological time, and discrete fault attributes such as probability, dip, strike, rake, and displacement. It also accommodates the creation of complex geological features such as salt bodies and unconformities. The model generation algorithm employs a multi-randomization strategy, yielding an effectively infinite-dimensional model space that encompasses a wide range of geological scenarios and associated seismic features. Furthermore, RGM incorporates a method to generate synthetic elastic migration images using analytical elastic reflection coefficients combined with frequency-dependent scaling. This functionality enables the creation of training datasets for ML models that leverage elastic seismic images. RGM is implemented in modern object-oriented Fortran, allowing users to flexibly control statistical parameters governing model variability. We demonstrate the capability, performance, and geological realism of the package through comprehensive 2D and 3D examples.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2022

Modernizing NASA's Risk Classification System

NASA's risk classification system dates back to an era when every new NASA space mission was a one-of-a-kind build, and the only way to obtain reliability was as a by-product through a combination of reliability analyses, extensive and stringent quality requirements, and extensive testing. Originally, there were very limited commercial capabilities to develop systems to work reliably in space, so NASA considered its own homegrown approach the only recipe for success. This approach involved very detailed and prescriptive piece-part controls and no reliance on (and to some extent a rejection of) any type of commercial practices. Often risk was considered to be the lowest when NASA had the maximum amount of control and prescription, and the highest when commercial practices were largely employed, and these principles drove risk classification in the agency. Over time, however, commercial capabilities grew, and many products became standardized and commercialized, while the agency maintained its tried-and-true approach, paying little attention to the evolution of the commercial sector. In fact, the commercial sector was developing systems that have direct, proven reliability, established over time, while NASA still maintained the approach to ignore the reality of the commercialized aspects of standard products, label them as high risk, and attempt to change them to align with the agency's piece-part control practices. A table of mission classification vs lifetime for missions launched after 2000 indicates no correlation between lifetime and classification, with the few exceptions involving missions that have very limited objectives and no valid purpose to continue after they were met. This paper steps through some of the key historical elements in risk classification and NASA's overall approach to assurance, and presents some elements being brought forward to modernize the approach and take advantage of the growing capability in the commercial sector.

risk↗