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At least 433 records · Page 24

Predictability of the Minimum Sea Ice Extent from Late Winter Fram Strait Ice Export: Model vs Observations

Late winter coastal divergence along the Eurasian coastline (referred to as the ice factory) – or the Fram Strait ice export, a proxy for coastal divergence in the ice factory – is a skillful predictor of the minimum sea ice extent (Williams et al., 2016; Brunette et al., 2018; Sesternikov and, 1979). Coastal divergence leads to the formation of coastal polynya where new ice grows but to a thickness that is not large enough to survive the following summer melt. This signal is then amplified by the ice albedo feedback and leads to more open water at the end of the summer melt season. In this thesis project, we will identify if this source of predictive skill in the seasonal forecast of the minimum sea ice extent is present in General Circulation Models, more precisely in the CESM2-LE, GISS-E2.1-G, GFDL FLOR-LE, CNRM-CM6-1 and the CanESM5. Since even small biases in the large-scale atmospheric circulation simulated by a model can short circuit this coupling between dominant modes of atmospheric variability (NAO and AO), coastal divergence along the Eurasian coastline, Fram Strait ice export and therefore seasonal forecasting skill of the model, failure to reproduce this coupling observed in the real Arctic will be used to identify biases in GCM. Preliminary results show that subtle changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation leads to opposite statistical relationship between Fram Strait ice area export, coastal divergence along the Eurasian coastline, and seasonal predictability of the minimum sea ice extent both in the CESM2-LE and the GISS-E2.1-G models. Differences are linked with the partitioning between recirculation within the Beaufort Gyre, ice exported through Fram Strait and ridging north of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.

Sea ice↗

Quantifying the effect of late bombardment on terrestrial zircons

The first 500 million years of Earth history is thought to be a period of intense planetary bombardment, but the timing and flux of this meteorite bombardment is poorly understood. In particular, on the basis of an inferred lunar impact history, some workers have hypothesized a ~3.9 Ga terminal cataclysm (TC) in which there was marked increase in the impact flux affecting the Moon, the Earth and possibly other terrestrial planets. Minerals that survived this enigmatic period offer a way to test early planetary bombardment models as they may contain telltale micro- to nanoscale shock features. Here, we present results from a numerical modeling calculation that assesses the probability that a zircon residing in the crust would escape shock melting or shock deformation during a TC bombardment event. Even with conservative pressure estimates for zircon shock deformation and intermediate bombardment intensities, we find that only ~6% of ≥4.0 Ga crust would be expected to survive a 3.9 Ga cataclysm without experiencing either complete melting or zircon shock metamorphism. In this study, we couple this modeling with a search for shock effects in the oldest zircons from the Acasta Gneiss Complex, which would have been present in the Earth's crust during a putative 3.9 Ga TC. Spatially correlated electron and NanoSIMS ion microscopy of 4.02 Ga igneous zircons from Acasta reveals no evidence of ancient shock. These data, together with similar results from other Hadean zircon suites, confirm that a post-Hadean TC is unlikely to have occurred. We suggest that the dearth of pre-3.9 Ga terrestrial crust and zircons is instead best explained by endogenic processes related to the mechanisms of early crust formation. Our modeling allows us to evaluate bombardment scenarios from the terrestrial zircon record by applying probabilistic interpretations to zircon shock deformation data. This approach will be valuable for other planetary bodies, allowing broader conclusions to be drawn from geographically limited datasets.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Late-Time Evolution of Composite Supernova Remnants: Deep Chandra Observations and Hydrodynamical Modeling of a Crushed Pulsar Wind Nebula in SNR G327.1-1.1

In an effort to better understand the evolution of composite supernova remnants (SNRs) and the eventual fate of relativistic particles injected by their pulsars, we present a multifaceted investigation of the interaction between a pulsar wind nebula (PWN) and its host SNR G327.1-1.1. Our 350 ks Chandra X-ray observations of SNR G327.1-1.1 reveal a highly complex morphology; a cometary structure resembling a bow shock, prong-like features extending into large arcs in the SNR interior, and thermal emission from the SNR shell. Spectral analysis of the non-thermal emission offers clues about the origin of the PWN structures, while enhanced abundances in the PWN region provide evidence for mixing of supernova ejecta with PWN material. The overall morphology and spectral properties of the SNR suggest that the PWN has undergone an asymmetric interaction with the SNR reverse shock(RS) that can occur as a result of a density gradient in the ambient medium and or a moving pulsar that displaces the PWN from the center of the remnant. We present hydrodynamical simulations of G327.1-1.1 that show that its morphology and evolution can be described by a approx. 17,000 yr old composite SNR that expanded into a density gradient with an orientation perpendicular to the pulsar's motion. We also show that the RSPWN interaction scenario can reproduce the broadband spectrum of the PWN from radio to gamma-ray wavelengths. The analysis and modeling presented in this work have important implications for our general understanding of the structure and evolution of composite SNRs.

Evolution↗

QCD axion dark matter from a late time phase transition

We investigate the possibility that the Peccei-Quinn phase transition occurs at a temperature far below the symmetry breaking scale. Low phase transition temperatures are typical in supersymmetric theories, where symmetry breaking fields have small masses. We find that QCD axions are abundantly produced just after the phase transition. The observed dark matter abundance is reproduced even if the decay constant is much lower than 10 11 GeV. The produced axions tend to be warm. For some range of the decay constant, the effect of the predicted warmness on structure formation can be confirmed by future observations of 21 cm lines. A portion of parameter space requires a mixing between the Peccei-Quinn symmetry breaking field and the Standard Model Higgs, and predicts an observable rate of rare Kaon decays.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Robust late twenty-first century shift in the regional monsoons in RegCM-CORDEX simulations

Abstract We use an unprecedented ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) projections over seven regional CORDEX domains to provide, for the first time, an RCM-based global view of monsoon changes at various levels of increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. All regional simulations are conducted using RegCM4 at a 25 km horizontal grid spacing using lateral and lower boundary forcing from three General Circulation Models (GCMs), which are part of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5). Each simulation covers the period from 1970 through 2100 under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Regional climate simulations exhibit high fidelity in capturing key characteristics of precipitation and atmospheric dynamics across monsoon regions in the historical period. In the future period, regional monsoons exhibit a spatially robust delay in the monsoon onset, an increase in seasonality, and a reduction in the rainy season length at higher levels of radiative forcing. All regions with substantial delays in the monsoon onset exhibit a decrease in pre-monsoon precipitation, indicating a strong connection between pre-monsoon drying and a shift in the monsoon onset. The weakening of latent heat driven atmospheric warming during the pre-monsoon period delays the overturning of atmospheric subsidence in the monsoon regions, which defers their transitioning into deep convective states. Monsoon changes under the RCP2.6 scenario are mostly within the baseline variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Factors affecting the reactivity of slag at early and late ages

This study investigates the difference between the reactivity of slag in NaOH solution (w/s = 100) and in cement paste (w/b = 0.4). The reactivity of slag is much higher in NaOH solution than in cement paste. When the NaOH solution is saturated with portlandite, the rate of reaction of slag decreases to approach that in cement paste. This suggests that the slower reaction of slag in cement paste might be due to the presence of calcium ions released by the clinker phases. At 28 days, relative humidity measurements indicate that water is only present in pores less than 6 nm. Above 6 nm, hydration cannot take place due to the lack of water. From a thermodynamic point of view, the small size of water filled pores may slow down the slag reaction due to the high concentration of species in solution required for hydrate growth to balance the increase of the surface energy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Impact of Pelvic Radiation Therapy for Prostate Cancer on Global Metabolic Profiles and Microbiota-Driven Gastrointestinal Late Side Effects: A Longitudinal Observational Study

Radiation therapy to the prostate and pelvic lymph nodes (PLNRT) is part of the curative treatment of high-risk prostate cancer. Yet, the broader influence of radiation therapy on patient physiology is poorly understood. We conducted comprehensive global metabolomic profiling of urine, plasma, and stools sampled from patients undergoing PLNRT for high-risk prostate cancer.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗