Spatio-Temporal Super-Resolution of Dynamical Systems using Physics-Informed Deep-Learning
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Buildings account for a substantial portion of carbon emissions, primarily due to the widespread use of fossil fuels in heating systems. Decarbonization of heating is essential to meet climate targets and reduce the environmental impact of buildings. Heat pumps are capable of leveraging renewable energy sources and can provide heating and cooling in an energy-efficient manner. By leveraging heat pump technology, buildings can significantly reduce their carbon footprint, minimize energy consumption, and decrease their reliance on fossil fuels. The design and construction community plays a pivotal role in facilitating the transition to heat pump systems for heating and cooling. However, this transition requires specialized knowledge and expertise. This resource was developed for architects, engineers, and contractors in response to an industry need for a comprehensive technical resource that guides them through the intricacies of heat pump system design, installation, and maintenance. This resource provides detailed information on system sizing, selection of appropriate heat systems, heat sources, and integration with existing building systems. Moreover, it emphasizes best practices for ensuring operational efficiency, system longevity, and reliability. The development of this recourse was a collaborative effort between NREL/DOE Better Buildings Design and Construction Allies and ASHRAE Task Force for Building Decarbonization. This resource is composed of two complimentary portions that will be completed and released on separate time frames. The first portion will be completed and released in 2023, while the second portion will be released in 2024.
Machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms offer valuable tools for the analysis and interpretation of large datasets. These tools have the capability to uncover insights that may not be readily apparent within these datasets. In recent years, the integration of ML and AI has become increasingly prevalent in various applications within the power system domain. One of the earliest instances of machine learning in power systems can be traced back to demand forecasting, where artificial neural networks were employed for short-term load forecasting. In contemporary power systems, an abundance of high-resolution geospatial and temporal data is generated at various time intervals, ranging from sub-seconds (Phasor Measurement Units or PMUs) to seconds (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition or SCADA), minutes (Process Information or PI), and extending to days, months, and years. These datasets contain valuable information concerning system reliability and performance. This information holds the potential to offer critical insights into system operations, as well as solutions for predicting and mitigating contingencies to prevent cascading outages. Despite the immense power of machine learning tools, system operators, planners, and utilities often exhibit hesitancy in fully embracing AI-enabled system operations and planning. This cautious approach persists, even as numerous diverse applications of machine learning continue to emerge in the realm of power systems. In this chapter, our focus will delve deep into ML and AI applications tailored for power systems. These applications aim to furnish system operators with enhanced situational awareness and augment their decision-making capabilities, especially during challenging operating conditions. Specific areas of interest encompass root cause analyses of electricity market datasets and the strategic selection of representative samples from vast power system databases for training ML/AI models. Finally, the chapter will conclude with a short discussion on the future of ML/AI in power systems and possible directions that the industry is moving towards.
To reduce cost and ease maintenance, industrial control systems (ICS) have adopted Ethernetbased interconnections that integrate operational technology (OT) systems with information technology (IT) networks. This integration has made these critical systems vulnerable to attack. Security solutions tailored to ICS environments are an active area of research. Anomalybased network intrusion detection systems are well-suited for these environments. Often these systems must be optimized for their specific environment. In prior work, we introduced a method for assessing the impact of various anomaly-based network IDS settings on security. This paper reviews the experimental outcomes when we applied our method to a full-scale ICS test bed using actual attacks. Our method provides new and valuable data to operators enabling more informed decisions about IDS configurations.
River networks are crucial in hydrologic and Earth system models. Accurately representing river networks in spatially distributed hydrologic models requires considering the model's spatial discretization and computational mesh. However, current methods of generating river networks for hydrologic models do not typically support unstructured meshes. Unstructured meshes offer numerous advantages over traditional, structured meshes. To overcome this limitation, we developed PyFlowline, a Python package that generates mesh-independent river networks. With PyFlowline, hydrologic modelers can generate conceptual river networks and their topological relationships for both structured and unstructured meshes.
Eucalyptus is a novel code developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory to incorporate uncertainty quantification into Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). This tool addresses the challenge of imperfect knowledge in “grey-box” systems by allowing analysts to incorporate and propagate uncertainty from component-level assessments to system-level effects. Eucalyptus facilitates a consistent evaluation of the impact of subject matter expert judgment and knowledge gaps on overall system response by Monte Carlo generation of possible system fault trees, sampling probabilities of the existence of subsystems and components. Here, the code supports the specification of fault trees through text and allows export to various formats, including auto-generated images, easing analysis and reducing errors. It has undergone extensive verification testing, demonstrating its reliability and readiness for deployment, and leverages on-node parallelism for rapid analysis. Example analyses are shown that include the identification of system failure paths and quantification of the value of further information about system components.
We establish bounds on quantum correlations in many-body systems. They reveal what sort of information about a quantum system can be simultaneously recorded in different parts of its environment. Specifically, independent agents who monitor environment fragments can eavesdrop only on amplified and redundantly disseminated—hence, effectively classical—information about the decoherence-resistant pointer observable. We also show that the emergence of classical objectivity is signaled by a distinctive scaling of the conditional mutual information, bypassing hard numerical optimizations. Our results validate the core idea of quantum Darwinism: objective classical reality does not need to be postulated and is not accidental, but rather a compelling emergent feature of quantum theory that otherwise—in the absence of decoherence and amplification—leads to “quantum weirdness.” In particular, a lack of consensus between agents that access environment fragments is bounded by the information deficit, a measure of the incompleteness of the information about the system.
This final report covers the results of the development of testing methods of occupancy sensor systems connected to HVAC controls. This project focused on the development of test methods to evaluate the performance of HVAC-connected occupancy sensor systems, including occupancy presence, occupancy counting, and CO 2 sensor systems in commercial and residential buildings. This included evaluation of the reliability, ease of commissioning, and energy savings potential of these sensor systems. The results of this work help to standardize the methods used to evaluate performance, to enable the ability to compare sensor system performance following the same methods, to understand which sensor systems perform better or worse compared to others. The U.S. building stock’s energy usage can benefit substantially from having building system operations informed by reliable occupancy recognition and CO 2 measurements, however to date, standard methods have not been in place to ensure that sensor systems’ reported performance is uniformly evaluated. The results of this work support the development of a standard or guideline that outlines the developed methods of testing. This project also included the testing of both off-the-shelf and novel SENSOR team-developed low-cost occupancy sensor systems, using the developed methods of testing. The results of this testing helped to inform further development and improvement of new low-cost sensor systems that will benefit from being used in residential and commercial buildings throughout the country.
Conventional wisdom dictates that quantum effects become unimportant at high temperatures. In magnets, when the thermal energy exceeds interactions between atomic magnetic moments, the moments are usually uncorrelated, and classical paramagnetic behavior is observed. This thermal decoherence of quantum spin behaviors is a major hindrance to quantum information applications of spin systems. Remarkably, our neutron scattering experiments on Yb chains in an insulating perovskite crystal defy these conventional expectations. We find a sharply defined spectrum of spinons, fractional quantum excitations of spin-1/2 chains, to persist to temperatures much higher than the scale of the interactions between Yb magnetic moments. The observed sharpness of the spinon continuum’s dispersive upper boundary indicates a spinon mean free path exceeding ≈ 35 inter-atomic spacings at temperatures more than an order of magnitude above the interaction energy scale. We thus discover an important and highly unique quantum behavior, which expands the realm of quantumness to high temperatures where entropy-governed classical behaviors were previously believed to dominate. Our results have profound implications for spin systems in quantum information applications operating at finite temperatures and motivate new developments in quantum metrology.
The output power of a wireless power transfer (WPT) system varies with load and coupling factor of the inductively coupled coils. This paper presents a method to control the output power of primary side LCC and secondary side series tuned WPT system using information of primary side variables. In this approach, a secondary side control system or secondary side sensors are not needed. Detailed mathematical derivations are given to identify and justify the suitable primary side variable that accomplishes the desired purpose without the need of any secondary side communications. Simulation results presented validate the proposed scheme.
Artificial intelligence (AI), and more specifically large language models (LLMs) have the potential for use in penetration testing (“pentesting”) against devices, networks, and computer systems in information technology (IT). We explore the possibility of extending pentesting from IT systems to operational technology (OT) systems, which are more obscure than IT systems in their protocols and design. A challenge therefore exists when applying pretrained LLMs to OT systems as corpora are likely to underrepresent OT systems in comparison to other more prevalent systems. We evaluate augmentations of LLMs with various methods, especially retrieval augmented generation (RAG), to improve performance of the LLMs in the OT domain. In addition to pentesting, some of the testing of these OT devices may include commissioning to ensure that the newly installed devices work correctly. Our framework may also be applied in such cases.
Reliable power system operation requires that system operators maintain a satisfactory small-signal stability margin at all times. Mode meters allow system operators to continuously monitor the stability margin by analyzing synchrophasor measurements. Experience with mode meters at the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) has revealed that mode meters sometimes suffer severe bias following transient disturbances. In this paper, a robust version of the Yule-Walker mode meter algorithm is proposed to mitigate this bias. The robust capability is introduced by modifying the estimator of the autocovariance sequence (ACS) on which the algorithm depends. Tests with field-measured data demonstrate that the robust Yule-Walker (RYW) algorithm significantly outperforms its conventional counterpart and is better able to provide system operators with accurate information about the system's stability margin.
Distribution system state estimation requires reliable aggregation of the measured data. However, the large volume of the measured data imposes a significant stress on the underlying communication infrastructure. With the challenges associated with measurement availability, current distribution systems are typically unobservable. To cope with the unobservability issue, compressive sensing theory allows us to recover system state information from a small number of measurements provided the states of the distribution system exhibit sparsity. In this paper, we evaluate the robustness of an updated Kalman filtered modified compressive sensing (KF-ModCS) technique that dynamically estimates the grid states using a small fraction of measured data. In practice, measurements used for sparsity based state estimation may also be intermittent due to communication network induced losses. Further, to understand the effect of packet losses on KF-ModCS, we provide an upper bound for the expected variances of the state estimation error for a given rate of information loss. This upper bound is further improved if the support set of the sparse signal that characterizes the state dynamics does not change over time and/or the reduced model is observable. Simulations based on two practical data sets collected from actual customers in a distribution grid validate the theoretical results.
In this work, we present a gradient-informed design optimization of nuclear reactor core components based on neutronics objectives with both continuous and discrete materials. The main argument in favor of using gradient-informed design optimization is that it scales well with increasing dimensionality of the design space. First, a challenge problem with 121 free parameters is solved with a gradient-informed method and then with a genetic algorithm. Then, a challenge problem to optimize the flux profile of a simplified assembly with eight axial zones is solved. Both challenge problems are solved using directly calculated derivatives from Tools for Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis Methodology Implementation (TSUNAMI) in the SCALE package. Furthermore, we demonstrate how a discrete optimization problem—selection of materials for 121 voxels—can be lifted into a continuous problem with mixed materials. In the continuous space, adjoint-based gradients are well-defined, and gradient descent is applicable. Then, a forcing function is introduced that with the selection of an appropriately sized hyperparameter can be used to guide the optimized continuous solution back into a discrete solution. This paper presents an account of the challenges that were faced when applying a gradient-informed optimization algorithm using a Monte Carlo calculation to estimate the gradient information and compares a gradient descent optimization method to a genetic algorithm optimization of the same geometry. Overall, this work demonstrates the potential use of adjoint-based gradient calculations in design optimization of nuclear systems.
This report describes the interim progress for research supporting the design and optimization of information automation systems for nuclear power plants. Much of the domestic nuclear fleet is currently focused on modernizing technologies and processes, including transitioning toward digitalization in the control room and elsewhere throughout the plant, along with a greater use of automation, artificial intelligence, robotics, and other emerging technologies. While there are significant opportunities to apply these technologies toward greater plant safety, efficiency, and overall cost-effectiveness, optimizing their design and avoiding potential safety and performance risks depends on ensuring that human-performance-related organizational and technical design issues are identified and addressed. This report describes modeling tools and techniques, based on sociotechnical system theory, to support these design goals and their application in the current research effort. The report is intended for senior nuclear energy stakeholders, including regulators, corporate management, and senior plant management. We have developed and employed a method to design an optimized information automation ecosystem (IAE) based on the systems-theoretic constructs underlying sociotechnical systems theory in general and the Systems-Theoretic Accident Modeling and Processes (STAMP) approach in particular. We argue that an IAE can be modeled as an interactive information control system whose behavior can be understood in terms of dynamic control and feedback relationships amongst the system’s technical and organizational components. Up to this point, we have employed a Causal Analysis based on STAMP (CAST) technique to examine a performance- and safety-related incident at an industry partner’s plant that involved the unintentional activation of an emergency diesel generator. This analysis provided insight into the behavior of the plant’s current information control structure within the context of a specific, significant event. Our ongoing analysis is focused on identifying near-term process improvements and longer-term design requirements for an optimized IAE system. The latter analyses will employ a second STAMP-derived technique, System-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA). STPA is a useful modeling tool for generating and analyzing actual or potential information control structures. Finally, we have begun modeling plantwide organizational relationships and processes. Organizational system modeling will supplement our CAST and STPA findings and provide a basis for mapping out a plantwide information control architecture. CAST analysis findings indicate an important underlying contributor to the incident under investigation, and a significant risk to information automation system performance, was perceived schedule pressure, which exposed weaknesses in interdepartmental coordination between and within responsible plant organizations and challenged the resilience of established plant processes, until a human caused the initiating event. These findings are discussed in terms of their risk to overall system performance and their implications for information automation system resilience and brittleness. We present two preliminary information automation models. The proactive issue resolution model is a test case of an information automation concept with significant near-term potential for application and subsequent reduction in significant plant events. The IAE model is a more general representation of a broader, plantwide information automation system. From our results, we have generated a set of preliminary system-level requirements and safety constraints. These requirements will be further developed over the remainder of our project in collaboration with nuclear industry subject matter experts and specialists in the technical systems under consideration. Additionally, we will continue to pursue the system analyses initiated in the first part of our effort, with a particular emphasis on STPA as the main tool to identify weak or weakening control structures that affect the resilience of organizations and programs. Our intent is to broaden the scope of the analysis from an individual use case to a related set of use cases (e.g., maintenance tasks, compliance tasks) with similar human-system performance challenges. This will enable more generalized findings to refine the Proactive Issue Resolution and IAE models, as well as their system-level requirements and safety constraints. We will use organizational system modeling analyses to supplement STPA findings and model development. We conclude the report with a set of summary recommendations and an initial draft list of system-level requirements and safety constraints for optimized information automation systems.
State Estimation (SE) is the backbone of modern Energy Management System (EMS) due its capability of processing real time measurements and provide reliable information to system operators. Since its introduction to power systems in the 70’s, SE has been widely used in transmission networks. Distribution grids on the other hand lack sufficient number of real time measurements, and for that reason SE has not been widely implemented on these systems. The recent increase in the number of renewable energy sources connected to the grid at lower voltage levels, the advent of Distribution Automation (DA) and Smart Grids necessitate closer monitoring of distribution networks and thus forcing utilities to upgrade their operations and deploy Advanced Distribution Management Sytems (ADMS). Therefore, Distribution System State Estimation (DSE) is paramount to provide real time monitoring of active distribution grids. This papers investigates the formulation of the three-phase distribution state estimation where in the most general case, none of the system buses may have balanced three phase voltages. In such a case, the choice and definition of the slack bus need to be revisited. Most of the existing work arbitrarily assign the root bus of the distribution feeder as the balanced three-phase reference which may not be realistic for today’s active distribution systems. This paper addresses this shortcoming of the existing SE formulations by introducing a virtual reference bus. Here, the proposed approach is effectively validated by simulations carried out on distribution test systems.