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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 433 records · Page 24
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

A scalable framework for quantifying field-level agricultural carbon outcomes

Agriculture contributes nearly a quarter of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, which is motivating interest in adopting certain farming practices that have the potential to reduce GHG emissions or sequester carbon in soil. The related GHG emission (including N 2 O and CH 4 ) and changes in soil carbon stock are defined here as “agricultural carbon outcomes”. Accurate quantification of agricultural carbon outcomes is the basis for achieving emission reductions for agriculture, but existing approaches for measuring carbon outcomes (including direct measurements, emission factors, and process-based modeling) fall short of achieving the required accuracy and scalability necessary to support credible, verifiable, and cost-effective measurement and improvement of these carbon outcomes. Here we propose a foundational and scalable framework to quantify field-level carbon outcomes for farmland, which is based on the holistic carbon balance of the agroecosystem: Agroecosystem Carbon Outcomes = Environment (E) × Management (M) × Crop (C). Following a comprehensive review of the scientific challenges associated with existing approaches, as well as their tradeoffs between cost and accuracy, we propose that the most viable path for the quantification of field-level carbon outcomes in agricultural land is through an effective integration of various approaches (e.g. diverse observations, sensor/in-situ data, and modeling), defined as the “System-of-Systems” solution. Such a “System-of-Systems” solution should simultaneously comprise the following components: (1) scalable collection of ground truth data and cross-scale sensing of environment variables (E), management practices (M), and crop conditions (C) at the local field level; (2) advanced modeling with necessary processes to support the quantification of carbon outcomes; (3) systematic Model-Data Fusion (MDF), i.e. robust and efficient methods to integrate sensing data and models at each local farmland level; (4) high computation efficiency and artificial intelligence (AI) to scale to millions of individual fields with low cost; and (5) robust and multi-tier validation systems and infrastructures to ensure solution fidelity and true scalability, i.e. the ability of a solution to perform robustly with accepted accuracy on all targeted fields. In this regard, we provide here the detailed scientific rationale, current progress, and future research and development (R&D) priorities to achieve different components of the “System-of-Systems” solution, thus accomplishing the Environment×Management×Crop framework to quantify field-level agricultural carbon outcomes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Resource-Efficient Chemistry on Quantum Computers with the Variational Quantum Eigensolver and The Double Unitary Coupled-Cluster approach

Applications of quantum simulation algorithms to obtain electronic energies of molecules on noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) devices require careful consideration of resources describing the complex electron correlation effects. In modeling second-quantized problems, the biggest challenge confronted is that the number of qubits scales linearly with the size of molecular basis. This poses a significant limitation on the size of the basis sets and the number of correlated electrons included in quantum simulations of chemical processes. To address this issue and to enable more realistic simulations on NISQ computers, we employ the double unitary coupled-cluster (DUCC) method to effectively downfold correlation effects into the reduced-size orbital space, commonly referred to as the active space. Using downfolding techniques, we demonstrate that properly constructed effective Hamiltonians can capture the effect of the whole orbital space in small-size active spaces. Combining the downfolding pre-processing technique with the Variational Quantum Eigensolver, we solve for the ground-state energy of H2 and Li2 in the cc-pVTZ basis using the DUCC-reduced active spaces. We compare these results to full configuration-interaction and high-level coupled-cluster reference calculations.

quantum computing, variational quantum solver, cou↗
DOE OSTI2025

Meteorological Variables and Energy Fluxes at the Pumphouse Site, Crested Butte, CO 2017-2019

This data contains output from the pumphouse eddy covariance tower that includes shortwave radiation, longwave radiation, net radiation, air temperature, relative humidity, as well as sensible, latent, and ground heat fluxes. Also included is calculated evapotranspiration from the latent heat flux and the latent heat of vaporization. All data are on a daily timestep and displayed in Mountain Time. The data has been processed, and Quality Assurance / Quality Control (QA/QC) was done, but any daily gaps in the data have not been filled in. This research was funded by the Department of Energy and performed as part of the Watershed Function Scientific Focus Area. This research aimed to constrain evapotranspiration in a high-elevation catchment.The dataset includes one comma-separated values (CSV) data file (EddyCovariance_MeteorlogicalVariables_CrestedButtePumphouse.csv). Additionally, three metadata CSV files are included: (1) location metadata file (locations.csv), which contains location metadata and coordinates; (2) a file-level metadata (flmd.csv) file that lists each file contained in the dataset with associated metadata; and (3) a data dictionary (dd.csv) file that contains column/row headers used throughout the files along with a definition, units, and data type.This work was supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Optically addressable molecular spins for quantum information processing

Spin-bearing molecules are promising building blocks for quantum technologies as they can be chemically tuned, assembled into scalable arrays, and readily incorporated into diverse device architectures. In molecular systems, optically addressing ground-state spins would enable a wide range of applications in quantum information science, as has been demonstrated for solid-state defects. However, this important functionality has remained elusive for molecules. Here, we demonstrate such optical addressability in a series of synthesized organometallic, chromium(IV) molecules. These compounds display a ground-state spin that can be initialized and read out using light and coherently manipulated with microwaves. In addition, through atomistic modification of the molecular structure, we vary the spin and optical properties of these compounds, indicating promise for designer quantum systems synthesized from the bottom-up.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2024

FiberFlex: Real-time FPGA-based Intelligent and Distributed Fiber Sensor System for Pedestrian Recognition

In recent years, security monitoring of public places and critical infrastructure has heavily relied on the widespread use of cameras, raising concerns about personal privacy violations. To balance the need for effective security monitoring with the protection of personal privacy, we explore the potential of optical fiber sensors for this application. This article proposes FiberFlex, an intelligent and distributed fiber sensor system. Ultizing Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGA) high-level synthesis (HLS) acceleration, FiberFlex offers real-time pedestrian detection by co-designing the entire pipeline of optical signal acquisition, processing, and recognition networks based on the principles of optical fiber sensing. As a promising alternative to traditional camera-based monitoring systems, FiberFlex achieves pedestrian detection by analyzing the vibration patterns caused by pedestrian footsteps, enabling security monitoring while preserving individual privacy. FiberFlex comprises three modules: First , fiber-optic sensing system: A fiber-optic distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) system is built and used to measure the ground vibration waves generated by people walking. Second , algorithms: We first collect the training data by measuring the ground vibration waves, label the data, and use the data to train the neural network models to perform pedestrian recognition. Third , hardware accelerators: We use HLS tools to design hardware modules on FPGA for data collection and pre-processing and integrate them with the downstream neural network accelerators to perform in-line real-time pedestrian detection. The final detection results are sent back from FPGA to the host CPU. We implement our system FiberFlex with the in-house built DAS system and AMD/Xilinx Kintex7 FPGA KC705 board and verify the whole system using the real-world collected data. We conduct recognition tests on five test subjects of varying ages, heights, and weights in a fixed sensing area. Each subject experienced 20 real-time recognition tests using their daily walking habits, and the subjects were given adequate rest between tests. After 100 tests on five test subjects, the overall real-time recognition accuracy exceeded \(88.0\%\) . The whole system uses 55 W of power, 33 W in the optical DAS system and 22 W in the FPGA. Relying on its end-to-end interdisciplinary design, FiberFlex seamlessly combines fiber-optic sensors with FPGA accelerators to enable low-power real-time security monitoring without compromising privacy, making it a valuable addition to the existing security monitoring network. According to FiberFlex, more valuable research can be conducted in the future, such as fall monitoring for the elderly, migration of identification networks between different application scenarios, and improvement of anti-interference performance in more complex environments. In future perception networks, where the “eyes” are not feasible, let’s use fiber optic touch instead.

Distributed↗
DOE OSTI2024

Subnanometer Scale Mapping of Hydrogen Doping in Vanadium Dioxide

Hydrogen donor doping of correlated electron systems such as vanadium dioxide (VO 2 ) profoundly modifies the ground state properties. The electrical behavior of H x VO 2 is strongly dependent on the hydrogen concentration; hence, atomic scale control of the doping process is necessary. It is however a nontrivial problem to quantitatively probe the hydrogen distribution in a solid matrix. As hydrogen transfers its sole electron to the material, the ionization mechanism is suppressed. Here in this study, a methodology mapping the doping distribution at subnanometer length scale is demonstrated across a H x VO 2 thin film focusing on the oxygen-hydrogen bonds using electron energy loss spectroscopy (EELS) coupled with first-principles EELS calculations. The hydrogen distribution was revealed to be nonuniform along the growth direction and between different VO 2 grains, calling for intricate hydrogenation mechanisms. Our study points to a powerful approach to quantitatively map dopant distribution in quantum materials relevant to energy and information science

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2026

Interfacial Charge Transfer in Lead Sulfide/Cadmium Sulfide Quantum Dot–Monolayer Molybdenum Disulfide Heterostructures

We investigate the ultrafast interfacial charge transfer dynamics in mixed-dimensional PbS/CdS quantum dot (QD)–monolayer MoS 2 heterostructures exhibiting a type-II band alignment. These 0D–2D heterostructures were assembled using oleic acid-capped PbS/CdS QDs with systematically varied core sizes deposited onto molecular beam epitaxy-grown monolayer MoS 2 . Steady-state and time-resolved optical spectroscopies revealed pronounced bidirectional charge transfer between the 0D and 2D components, involving both electron and hole exchange across the interface. The quenching of the monolayer MoS 2 A-exciton bleach and the modifications of its decay dynamics provide direct evidence for efficient hole transfer from photoexcited MoS 2 into the PbS QD core. Concurrently, attenuation of the QD ground-state bleach and the emergence of ultrafast decay components confirmed electron transfer from photoexcited QDs to monolayer MoS 2 . Both hole and electron transfer processes are dependent on the QD core size, with smaller cores enabling faster transfer rates and higher efficiencies due to enhanced band offsets and interfacial coupling. The complementary insights gained from transient absorption and time-resolved photoluminescence measurements clarify the mechanisms governing interfacial carrier exchange and highlight the importance of both hole and electron transfer as key components in the functioning of such 0D–2D heterostructures. This study underscores the potential of 0D–2D semiconductor heterostructures for advanced optoelectronic and light-energy conversion applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine-learning accelerated geometry optimization in molecular simulation

Geometry optimization is an important part of both computational materials and surface science because it is the path to finding ground state atomic structures and reaction pathways. These properties are used in the estimation of thermodynamic and kinetic properties of molecular and crystal structures. This process is slow at the quantum level of theory because it involves an iterative calculation of forces using quantum chemical codes such as density functional theory (DFT), which are computationally expensive and which limit the speed of the optimization algorithms. It would be highly advantageous to accelerate this process because then one could do either the same amount of work in less time or more work in the same time. Here, we provide a neural network (NN) ensemble based active learning method to accelerate the local geometry optimization for multiple configurations simultaneously. We illustrate the acceleration on several case studies including bare metal surfaces, surfaces with adsorbates, and nudged elastic band for two reactions. In all cases, the accelerated method requires fewer DFT calculations than the standard method. In addition, we provide an Atomic Simulation Environment (ASE)-optimizer Python package to make the usage of the NN ensemble active learning for geometry optimization easier.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

A standardized quantitative analysis strategy for stable isotope probing metagenomics

ABSTRACT Stable isotope probing (SIP) facilitates culture-independent identification of active microbial populations within complex ecosystems through isotopic enrichment of nucleic acids. Many DNA-SIP studies rely on 16S rRNA gene sequences to identify active taxa, but connecting these sequences to specific bacterial genomes is often challenging. Here, we describe a standardized laboratory and analysis framework to quantify isotopic enrichment on a per-genome basis using shotgun metagenomics instead of 16S rRNA gene sequencing. To develop this framework, we explored various sample processing and analysis approaches using a designed microbiome where the identity of labeled genomes and their level of isotopic enrichment were experimentally controlled. With this ground truth dataset, we empirically assessed the accuracy of different analytical models for identifying active taxa and examined how sequencing depth impacts the detection of isotopically labeled genomes. We also demonstrate that using synthetic DNA internal standards to measure absolute genome abundances in SIP density fractions improves estimates of isotopic enrichment. In addition, our study illustrates the utility of internal standards to reveal anomalies in sample handling that could negatively impact SIP metagenomic analyses if left undetected. Finally, we present SIPmg , an R package to facilitate the estimation of absolute abundances and perform statistical analyses for identifying labeled genomes within SIP metagenomic data. This experimentally validated analysis framework strengthens the foundation of DNA-SIP metagenomics as a tool for accurately measuring the in situ activity of environmental microbial populations and assessing their genomic potential. IMPORTANCE Answering the questions, “who is eating what?” and “who is active?” within complex microbial communities is paramount for our ability to model, predict, and modulate microbiomes for improved human and planetary health. These questions can be pursued using stable isotope probing to track the incorporation of labeled compounds into cellular DNA during microbial growth. However, with traditional stable isotope methods, it is challenging to establish links between an active microorganism’s taxonomic identity and genome composition while providing quantitative estimates of the microorganism’s isotope incorporation rate. Here, we report an experimental and analytical workflow that lays the foundation for improved detection of metabolically active microorganisms and better quantitative estimates of genome-resolved isotope incorporation, which can be used to further refine ecosystem-scale models for carbon and nutrient fluxes within microbiomes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Oddities in Lightning Measurements from Space Reveal Extreme Flashes and Thunderstorms [Slides]

Space-based sensors are well-suited for detecting intracloud (IC) and Cloud to Ground (CG) lightning over large swaths of the Earth. Current sensors also measure the signals generated by lightning that contain information about the physical discharge process and the radiative transfer effects they experience on their path to orbit. Long records of orbital lightning data reveal rare and exceptional lightning signals push the boundaries of what the sensors are designed to measure and our understanding of what lightning and thunderstorms are capable of. Space-based sensors have revealed long-horizontal “megaflashes,” highly radiant “superbolts,” extremely high flash rate thunderstorms, and more.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Classification of Dissolution Events Using Fusion of Effluents Measurements and Classifiers

Classifiers for dissolution events at a radiochemical processing facility are studied using gamma spectra measurements of effluents collected by a high purity germanium detector located at its off-gas stack. Data sets collected at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s Radiochemical Engineering Development Center under a Pu dissolution campaign spanning a three months period are utilized. Features corresponding to the activity levels of 15 radionuclides, including isotopes of iodine, krypton, and xenon, that are indicated by the target decay chains, are computed from the spectra at 1 hour intervals. A conceptualization diagram is developed to reflect the steps from the source to measurement to feature computation that depend on fission products indicated by decay chains, chemical processing, and effluents transport to the off-gas stack. A diverse set of eight classifiers based on different design principles are trained using the ground truth data for this campaign, and the outputs of top three classifiers, namely, classification trees, Ensemble of Trees (EOT), and k-nearest neighbor, are combined using EOT classifier-fuser. Our results show that for 5-fold cross validation, features associated with isotopes of xenon provide the lowest classification error among the different elements across the classifiers; the classification error is furthered improved when all 15 isotope features are used by each classifier, and it is again improved by the fusion of three classifiers. Further reduction in classification error is achieved by using a measurement window of 1-2 days which is identified based on half-life time estimates of the isotopes; it is long enough for the stabilization of feature estimates while being short enough not to be affected by the follow on dissolution events. As a net result of feature and classifier fusion, combined with the incorporation of decay chain and isotope half-life information, this approach achieves 98% detection rate while maintaining a false alarm rate under 2% for this data set.

Rao, Nageswara↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating factors influencing infrasonic signal detection and automatic processing performance utilizing a regional network

Physical and deployment factors that influence infrasound signal detection and assess automatic detection performance for a regional infrasound network of arrays in the Western U.S. are explored using signatures of ground truth (GT) explosions (yields). Despite these repeated known sources, published infrasound event bulletins contain few GT events. Arrays are primarily distributed toward the south-southeast and south-southwest at distances between 84 and 458 km of the source with one array offering azimuthal resolution toward the northeast. Events occurred throughout the spring, summer, and fall of 2012 with the majority occurring during the summer months. Depending upon the array, automatic detection, which utilizes the adaptive F-detector successfully, identifies between 14% and 80% of the GT events, whereas a subsequent analyst review increases successful detection to 24%–90%. Combined background noise quantification, atmospheric propagation analyses, and comparison of spectral amplitudes determine the mechanisms that contribute to missed detections across the network. This analysis provides an estimate of detector performance across the network, as well as a qualitative assessment of conditions that impact infrasound monitoring capabilities. Finally, the mechanisms that lead to missed detections at individual arrays contribute to network-level estimates of detection capabilities and provide a basis for deployment decisions for regional infrasound arrays in areas of interest.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Nonadiabatic Excited-State Molecular Dynamics for Open-Shell Systems

Nonadiabatic Molecular Dynamics (NAMD) of excited states has been widely used in the simulation of photoinduced phenomena. However, the inability to treat bond breaking and forming processes with single-reference electronic structure methods limits their application in photochemistry for extended molecular systems. In this work, the extension of excited-state NAMD for open-shell systems is developed and implemented in the NEXMD software. We present the spin-unrestricted CIS and TDSCF formalism for the ground and excited states, analytical derivatives, and nonadiabatic derivative couplings for the respective potential energy surfaces. Next, this methodology is employed to study the photochemical reaction of three model molecules. The results demonstrate the advantage of the open-shell approach in modeling photochemical reactions, especially involving bond breaking processes. We find that the open-shell method lowers the reaction barrier at the bond-breaking limits resulting in larger calculated photochemical quantum yields compared to the respective closed-shell results. We also address problems related to spin contamination in the open-shell method, especially when molecular geometries are far from equilibrium.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Groundwater Modeling of the RDX Plume at Los Alamos National Laboratory to Support Risk Assessment - 20359

A plume of the contaminant hexahydro-1,3,5-trinitro-1,3,5-triazine (RDX) with concentrations greater than the New Mexico tap water drinking standard (9.66 ppb) is present in the regional aquifer near the southwestern boundary of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). A risk assessment is performed for exposure to regional aquifer groundwater, with long-term predictions of RDX concentrations provided by a calibrated, probabilistic, numerical fate and transport model. The structure of the model is hierarchical, with the RDX Regional Aquifer (RA) groundwater model acting as the primary tool for analysis of downgradient RDX concentrations. The RA model is deeply informed by the conceptual site model (CSM) and is calibrated using site RDX concentration data and hydraulic head measurements, along with other analyses. The model is calibrated using data through December 2019. Where data are scarce other lines of evidence are used to inform inputs, including the multiphase RDX Vadose Zone (VZ) model and Pipe and Disk analytical screening tool. Model inputs are described with informative prior distributions using a robust approach to development that incorporates all available lines of evidence for every parameter used as an input to the RA model. Calibration is performed using a classical nonlinear optimization routine, which is then used to initialize a Bayesian calibration. The Bayesian calibration constrains the uncertainty in the classical calibration, ultimately providing posterior distributions for all model parameters. The challenges of the calibration include high-dimensional parameter space, including spatially heterogeneous hydraulic conductivities, comparatively sparse data, and low RDX concentrations. Posterior parameter distributions developed in the calibration process are then used for stochastic predictive model runs into the future. The result of the forward runs is spatially and temporally explicit estimates of head and concentration with uncertainty at all points in space and time. The probabilistic modeling approach presented here includes innovative computational and statistical methods that leverage high-performance computing (HPC) resources. It makes use of prior modeling work performed at the chromium plume site in the central LANL area, with extensive updates. The risk assessment will ultimately be used to support decision-making at the site, using multiple appropriately weighted sources of information, as well as uncertainty, sensitivity, and value-of-information analyses. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sensitivity of Neutron-Rich Nuclear Isomer Behavior to Uncertainties in Direct Transitions

Nuclear isomers are populated in the rapid neutron capture process (r process) of nucleosynthesis. The r process may cover a wide range of temperatures, potentially starting from several tens of GK (several MeV) and then cooling as material is ejected from the event. As the r-process environment cools, isomers can freeze out of thermal equilibrium or be directly populated as astrophysically metastable isomers (astromers). Astromers can undergo reactions and decays at rates very different from the ground state, so they may need to be treated independently in nucleosythesis simulations. Two key behaviors of astromers—ground state ↔ isomer transition rates and thermalization temperatures—are determined by direct transition rates between pairs of nuclear states. We perform a sensitivity study to constrain the effects of unknown transitions on astromer behavior. Detailed balance ensures that ground → isomer and isomer → ground transitions are symmetric, so unknown transitions are equally impactful in both directions. We also introduce a categorization of astromers that describes their potential effects in hot environments. We provide a table of neutron-rich isomers that includes the astromer type, thermalization temperature, and key unmeasured transition rates.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Diel cycle impacts on the chemical and light absorption properties of organic carbon aerosol from wildfires in the western United States

Abstract. Organic aerosol (OA) emissions from biomass burning have been the subject of intense research in recent years, involving a combination of field campaigns and laboratory studies. These efforts have aimed at improving our limited understanding of the diverse processes and pathways involved in the atmospheric processing and evolution of OA properties, culminating in their accurate parameterizations in climate and chemical transport models. To bring closure between laboratory and field studies, wildfire plumes in the western United States were sampled and characterized for their chemical and optical properties during the ground-based segment of the 2019 Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality (FIREX-AQ) field campaign. Using a custom-developed multiwavelength integrated photoacoustic-nephelometer spectrometer in conjunction with a suite of instruments, including an oxidation flow reactor equipped to generate hydroxyl (OH⚫) or nitrate (NO3⚫) radicals to mimic daytime or nighttime oxidative aging processes, we investigated the effects of multiple equivalent hours of OH⚫ or NO3⚫ exposure on the chemical composition and mass absorption cross-sections (MAC(λ)) at 488 and 561 nm of OA emitted from wildfires in Arizona and Oregon. We found that OH⚫ exposure induced a slight initial increase in absorption corresponding to short timescales; however, at longer timescales, the wavelength-dependent MAC(λ) decreased by a factor of 0.72 ± 0.08, consistent with previous laboratory studies and reports of photobleaching. On the other hand, NO3⚫ exposure increased MAC(λ) by a factor of up to 1.69 ± 0.38. We also noted some sensitivity of aerosol aging to different fire conditions between Arizona and Oregon. The MAC(λ) enhancement following NO3⚫ exposure was found to correlate with an enhancement in CHO1N and CHOgt1N ion families measured by an Aerodyne aerosol mass spectrometer.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Aerosols from anthropogenic and biogenic sources and their interactions – modeling aerosol formation, optical properties, and impacts over the central Amazon basin

The Green Ocean Amazon experiment – GoAmazon 2014–2015 – explored the interactions between natural biogenic forest emissions from central Amazonia and urban air pollution from Manaus. Previous GoAmazon 2014–2015 studies showed that nitrogen oxide (NO x = NO + NO 2 ) and sulfur oxide (SO x ) emissions from Manaus strongly interact with biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs), affecting secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation. In previous studies, ground-based and aircraft measurements provided evidence of SOA formation and strong changes in aerosol composition and properties. Aerosol optical properties also evolve, and their impacts on the Amazonian ecosystem can be significant. As particles age, some processes, such as SOA production, black carbon (BC) deposition, particle growth and the BC lensing effect change the aerosol optical properties, affecting the solar radiation flux at the surface. This study analyzes data and models SOA formation using the Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model to assess the spatial variability in aerosol optical properties as the Manaus plumes interact with the natural atmosphere. The following aerosol optical properties are investigated: single scattering albedo (SSA), asymmetry parameter (g aer ), absorption Ångström exponent (AAE) and scattering Ångström exponent (SAE). These simulations were validated using ground-based measurements at three experimental sites, namely the Amazon Tall Tower Observatory – ATTO (T0a), downtown Manaus (T1), Tiwa Hotel (T2) and Manacapuru (T3), as well as the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Gulfstream 1 (G-1) aircraft flights. WRF-Chem simulations were performed over 7 d during March 2014. Results show a mean biogenic SOA (BSOA) mass enrichment of 512 % at the T1 site, 450 % in regions downwind of Manaus, such as the T3 site, and 850 % in areas north of the T3 site in simulations with anthropogenic emissions. The SOA formation is rather fast, with about 80 % of the SOA mass produced in 3–4 h. Comparing the plume from simulations with and without anthropogenic emissions, SSA shows a downwind reduction of approximately 10 %, 11 % and 6 % at the T1, T2 and T3 sites, respectively. Other regions, such as those further downwind of the T3 site, are also affected. The g aer values increased from 0.62 to 0.74 at the T1 site and from 0.67 to 0.72 at the T3 site when anthropogenic emissions are active. During the Manaus plume-aging process, a plume tracking analysis shows an increase in SSA from 0.91 close to Manaus to 0.98 160 km downwind of Manaus as a result of SOA production and BC deposition.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty guided online ensemble for non-stationary data streams in fusion science

Machine Learning (ML) is poised to play a pivotal role in the development and operation of next-generation fusion devices. Fusion data shows non-stationary behavior with distribution drifts, resulted by both experimental evolution and machine wear-and-tear. ML models assume stationary distribution and fail to maintain performance when encountered with such non-stationary data streams. Online learning techniques have been leveraged in other domains, however it has been largely unexplored for fusion applications. In this paper, we investigate online learning for continuous adaptation to drifting data streams in the prediction of Toroidal Field (TF) coils deflection at the DIII-D fusion facility. We further address the short-term performance degradation inherent to standard online learning, which arises because ground truth is unavailable at prediction time. To mitigate this issue, we propose an uncertainty-guided online ensemble framework. The method leverages the Deep Gaussian Process Approximation (DGPA) for calibrated uncertainty estimation and uses these uncertainty measures to guide a meta-algorithm that aggregates predictions from learners trained over different historical horizons. Our results show that online learning reduces prediction error by 80% compared to a static model. The online ensemble and the proposed uncertainty-guided ensemble further reduce error by approximately 6%, and 10% respectively, relative to standard single-model online learning, while also providing calibrated uncertainty estimates to support operational decision-making.

AI↗