Characterizing weather-related biophysical and financial risks in algal biofuel production
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Energy & Fuels↗
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Results for “Global sensitivity analysis”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Development of a hybrid neural network and transfer learning model for optimized ICP-MS/MS operation
Correct function and calibration of instrumentation is a crucial assumption for any scientific experiment. One such instrument, tandem inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometer (ICP-MS/MS), has in-depth calibration settings that range across 30+ different parameters, making it difficult to determine optimal conditions without expertise and some degree of trial and error. Often, these settings are hand-tuned, a time-intensive process prone to local maxima and human error. While some automation is available, the automation also may favor local optimizations over a global optimum. In addition to these difficulties, day to day instrument variability can further complicate the calibration process. We propose a solution to this problem as a machine learning (ML) algorithm that learns how each parameter helps determine the calibration sensitivity across several elements, and re-weights parameters over time as instrument variability changes (e.g., a global neural network (NN) with a time-dependent transfer learning (TL) component). This model would be able to generate a surface of predicted calibration sensitivities and their respective parameters, and a simple multivariate algorithm would be able to pull out the optimum results with the settings associated with them. Here-in, we describe our initial findings in working towards this goal, including data extraction from historical files, exploratory data analysis, and some initial model building to better describe the data and the feasibility of our goal.
46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
The evolution of the inner regions of viscous accretion disks surrounding neutron stars
The structure and evolution of the inner regions of an accretion disk around a neutron star have been investigated with respect to variations in the mass flow rate. In order to examine the sensitivity of the general response of the disk to the form of viscous dissipation, several theoretical constraints on disk evolution are proposed on the basis of current accretion disk theory. It is shown through a series of calculations that under certain circumstances nonlocal radial energy transfer can stabilize regions of the disk which appear to be unstable by local analysis. When viscous stress was scaled with the total pressure of the disk, global analysis was found to be consistent with local analysis, and instability was manifested in luminosity fluctuations and in bursts of less than 10 s. Analysis of the bursts in their limit cycles showed that the disk remained optically thick and geometrically thin throughout its evolution. Substantial agreement was found between the theoretical results and the available observational data.
Taam, R. E.↗
Preconditioned conjugate gradient technique for the analysis of symmetric anisotropic structures
An efficient preconditioned conjugate gradient (PCG) technique and a computational procedure are presented for the analysis of symmetric anisotropic structures. The technique is based on selecting the preconditioning matrix as the orthotropic part of the global stiffness matrix of the structure, with all the nonorthotropic terms set equal to zero. This particular choice of the preconditioning matrix results in reducing the size of the analysis model of the anisotropic structure to that of the corresponding orthotropic structure. The similarities between the proposed PCG technique and a reduction technique previously presented by the authors are identified and exploited to generate from the PCG technique direct measures for the sensitivity of the different response quantities to the nonorthotropic (anisotropic) material coefficients of the structure. The effectiveness of the PCG technique is demonstrated by means of a numerical example of an anisotropic cylindrical panel.
Noor, Ahmed K.↗
Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6
The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models. We limit our scope to the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation. We also compare CMIP6 projections to CMIP5 results, especially for those scenarios that were designed to provide continuity across the CMIP phases, at the same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well as in results. The range of future temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century (2081–2100) encompassing the Tier 1 experiments based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and SSP1-1.9 spans a larger range of outcomes compared to CMIP5, due to higher warming (by close to 1.5 °C) reached at the upper end of the 5 %–95 % envelope of the highest scenario (SSP5-8.5). This is due to both the wider range of radiative forcing that the new scenarios cover and the higher climate sensitivities in some of the new models compared to their CMIP5 predecessors. Spatial patterns of change for temperature and precipitation averaged over models and scenarios have familiar features, and an analysis of their variations confirms model structural differences to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Models also differ with respect to the size and evolution of internal variability as measured by individual models' initial condition ensemble spreads, according to a set of initial condition ensemble simulations available under SSP3-7.0. These experiments suggest a tendency for internal variability to decrease along the course of the century in this scenario, a result that will benefit from further analysis over a larger set of models. Benefits of mitigation, all else being equal in terms of societal drivers, appear clearly when comparing scenarios developed under the same SSP but to which different degrees of mitigation have been applied. It is also found that a mild overshoot in temperature of a few decades around mid-century, as represented in SSP5-3.4OS, does not affect the end outcome of temperature and precipitation changes by 2100, which return to the same levels as those reached by the gradually increasing SSP4-3.4 (not erasing the possibility, however, that other aspects of the system may not be as easily reversible). Central estimates of the time at which the ensemble means of the different scenarios reach a given warming level might be biased by the inclusion of models that have shown faster warming in the historical period than the observed. Those estimates show all scenarios reaching 1.5 °C of warming compared to the 1850–1900 baseline in the second half of the current decade, with the time span between slow and fast warming covering between 20 and 27 years from present. The warming level of 2 °C of warming is reached as early as 2039 by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5 but as late as the mid-2060s under SSP1-2.6. The highest warming level considered (5 °C) is reached by the ensemble mean only under SSP5-8.5 and not until the mid-2090s.d-2090s.
Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMI↗
Tailoring Hierarchical Structure and Rare Earth Affinity of Compositionally Identical Polymers via Sequence Control
Macromolecule sequence, structure, and function are inherently intertwined. While well-established relationships exist in proteins, they are more challenging to define for synthetic polymer nanoparticles due to their molecular weight, sequence, and conformational dispersities. Furthermore, to explore the impact of sequence on nanoparticle structure, we synthesized a set of 16 compositionally identical, sequence-controlled polymers with distinct monomer patterning of dimethyl acrylamide and a bioinspired, structure-driving di(phenylalanine) acrylamide (FF). Sequence control was achieved through multiblock polymerizations, yielding unique ensembles of polymer sequences which were simulated by kinetic Monte Carlo simulations. Systematic analysis of the global (tertiary- and quaternary-like) structure in this amphiphilic copolymer series revealed the effect of multiple sequence descriptors: the number of domains, the hydropathy of terminal domains, and the patchiness (density) of FF within a domain, each of which impacted both chain collapse and the distribution of single- and multichain assemblies. Furthermore, both the conformational freedom of chain segments and local-scale, β-sheet-like interactions were sensitive to the patchiness of FF. To connect sequence, structure, and target function, we evaluated an additional series of nine sequence-controlled copolymers as sequestrants for rare earth elements (REEs) by incorporating a functional acrylic acid monomer into select polymer scaffolds. We identified key sequence variables that influence the binding affinity, capacity, and selectivity of the polymers for REEs. Collectively, these results highlight the potential of and boundaries of sequence control via multiblock polymerizations to drive primary sequence ensembles hierarchical structures, and ultimately the functionality of compositionally identical polymeric materials.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Implications of a Pervasive Climate Model Bias for Low‐Cloud Feedback
Abstract How low clouds respond to warming constitutes a key uncertainty for climate projections. Here we observationally constrain low‐cloud feedback through a controlling factor analysis based on ridge regression. We find a moderately positive global low‐cloud feedback (0.45 W , 90% range 0.18–0.72 W ), about twice the mean value (0.22 W ) of 16 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. We link this discrepancy to a pervasive model mean‐state bias: models underestimate the low‐cloud response to warming because (a) they systematically underestimate present‐day tropical marine low‐cloud amount, and (b) the low‐cloud sensitivity to warming is proportional to this present‐day low‐cloud amount. Our results hence highlight the importance of reducing model biases in both the mean state of clouds and their sensitivity to environmental factors for accurate climate change projections.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Modeled production, oxidation, and transport processes of wetland methane emissions in temperate, boreal, and Arctic regions
Abstract Wetlands are the largest natural source of methane (CH 4 ) to the atmosphere. The eddy covariance method provides robust measurements of net ecosystem exchange of CH 4 , but interpreting its spatiotemporal variations is challenging due to the co‐occurrence of CH 4 production, oxidation, and transport dynamics. Here, we estimate these three processes using a data‐model fusion approach across 25 wetlands in temperate, boreal, and Arctic regions. Our data‐constrained model—iPEACE—reasonably reproduced CH 4 emissions at 19 of the 25 sites with normalized root mean square error of 0.59, correlation coefficient of 0.82, and normalized standard deviation of 0.87. Among the three processes, CH 4 production appeared to be the most important process, followed by oxidation in explaining inter‐site variations in CH 4 emissions. Based on a sensitivity analysis, CH 4 emissions were generally more sensitive to decreased water table than to increased gross primary productivity or soil temperature. For periods with leaf area index (LAI) of ≥20% of its annual peak, plant‐mediated transport appeared to be the major pathway for CH 4 transport. Contributions from ebullition and diffusion were relatively high during low LAI (<20%) periods. The lag time between CH 4 production and CH 4 emissions tended to be short in fen sites (3 ± 2 days) and long in bog sites (13 ± 10 days). Based on a principal component analysis, we found that parameters for CH 4 production, plant‐mediated transport, and diffusion through water explained 77% of the variance in the parameters across the 19 sites, highlighting the importance of these parameters for predicting wetland CH 4 emissions across biomes. These processes and associated parameters for CH 4 emissions among and within the wetlands provide useful insights for interpreting observed net CH 4 fluxes, estimating sensitivities to biophysical variables, and modeling global CH 4 fluxes.
Ueyama, Masahito↗
Measurement and interpretation of crustal deformation rates associated with postglacial rebound
Analysis of Global Positioning System (GPS) data from two sites separated by horizontal distance of only approximately 2.2 m yielded phase residuals exhibiting a systematic elevation angle dependence. One of the two GPS antennas was mounted on an approximately 1 m high concrete pillar, and the other was mounted on a standard wooden tripod. We performed elevation angle cutoff tests with these data, and established that the vertical coordinate of site position was sensitive to the minimum elevation angle (elevation cutoff) of the data analyzed. For example, the vertical coordinate of site position changed by 9.7 plus or minus 0.8 mm when the minimum elevation angle was increased from 10 to 25. We performed simulations based on a simple (ray tracing) multipath model with a single horizontal reflector, and demonstrated that the elevation angle cutoff test results and the pattern of the residual versus elevation angle could be qualitatively reproduced if the reflector were located 0.1-0.2 m beneath the antenna phase center. We therefore, hypothesized that the source of the elevation-angle-dependent error were multipath reflections and scattering and that the horizontal surface of the pillar, located a distance of approximately 0.2 m beneath the antenna phase center, was the primary reflector. We tested this hypothesis by placing microwave absorbing material between the antenna and the pillar in a number of configurations and analyzed the changes in apparent position of the antenna. The results indicate that (1) the horizontal surface of the pillar is indeed the main reflector, (2) both the concrete and the metal plate embedded in the pillar are significant reflectors, and (3) the reflection can be reduced to a great degree by the use of microwave absorbing materials. These results have significant implications for the accuracy of global GPS geodetic tracking networks which use pillar-antenna configuration identical or similar to the one used here (at the Westford WFRD GPS site).
Davis, James L.↗
Development of the GEOS-5 Atmospheric General Circulation Model: Evolution from MERRA to MERRA2.
The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications-2 (MERRA2) version of the GEOS-5 (Goddard Earth Observing System Model - 5) Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) is currently in use in the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) at a wide range of resolutions for a variety of applications. Details of the changes in parameterizations subsequent to the version in the original MERRA reanalysis are presented here. Results of a series of atmosphere-only sensitivity studies are shown to demonstrate changes in simulated climate associated with specific changes in physical parameterizations, and the impact of the newly implemented resolution-aware behavior on simulations at different resolutions is demonstrated. The GEOS-5 AGCM presented here is the model used as part of the GMAO's MERRA2 reanalysis, the global mesoscale "nature run", the real-time numerical weather prediction system, and for atmosphere-only, coupled ocean-atmosphere and coupled atmosphere-chemistry simulations. The seasonal mean climate of the MERRA2 version of the GEOS-5 AGCM represents a substantial improvement over the simulated climate of the MERRA version at all resolutions and for all applications. Fundamental improvements in simulated climate are associated with the increased re-evaporation of frozen precipitation and cloud condensate, resulting in a wetter atmosphere. Improvements in simulated climate are also shown to be attributable to changes in the background gravity wave drag, and to upgrades in the relationship between the ocean surface stress and the ocean roughness. The series of "resolution aware" parameters related to the moist physics were shown to result in improvements at higher resolutions, and result in AGCM simulations that exhibit seamless behavior across different resolutions and applications.
AGCM↗
Comprehensive review of combustion ion chromatography for the analysis of total, adsorbable, and extractable organic fluorine
Poly‐ and perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are a class of persistent organic pollutants whose high stability and appreciable water solubility have led to near‐global contamination. PFAS are bioaccumulative toxins that have been linked to a myriad of disorders and have been detected nearly universally in human blood. Liquid chromatography‐tandem mass spectrometry is the most frequent method used for quantitation, though this typically only measures a few dozen of the >14 000 known PFAS and has been shown to account for a small portion of the total organic fluorine present. Sum parameter methods such as total, extractable, and adsorbable organic fluorine have emerged as alternative measurements for PFAS determination. Combustion ion chromatography has become the preferred method for organofluorine measurement where the sorbent or extract containing PFAS is combusted and the emitted hydrofluoric acid (HF) is a measure of the cumulative organofluorine present. Herein we critically review the types of organofluorine measurement, their separation from the sample matrix, and key parameters of the analytical instrument that affect sensitivity, reproducibility, and recovery with regards to PFAS analysis.
Chemistry↗
Surface temperature/heat transfer measurement using a quantitative phosphor thermography system
A relative-intensity phosphor thermography technique developed for surface heating studies in hypersonic wind tunnels is described. A direct relationship between relative emission intensity and phosphor temperature is used for quantitative surface temperature measurements in time. The technique provides global surface temperature-time histories using a 3-CCD (Charge Coupled Device) video camera and digital recording system. A current history of technique development at Langley is discussed. Latest developments include a phosphor mixture for a greater range of temperature sensitivity and use of castable ceramics for inexpensive test models. A method of calculating surface heat-transfer from thermal image data in blowdown wind tunnels is included in an appendix, with an analysis of material thermal heat-transfer properties. Results from tests in the Langley 31-Inch Mach 10 Tunnel are presented for a ceramic orbiter configuration and a four-inch diameter hemisphere model. Data include windward heating for bow-shock/wing-shock interactions on the orbiter wing surface, and a comparison with prediction for hemisphere heating distribution.
Buck, G. M.↗
Newly found evidence of Sun-climate relationships
Solar radiation cycles drive climatic changes intercyclically. These interdecadal changes were detected as variations in solar total irradiances over the time period of recorded global surface-air-temperature (SAT) and have been restored utilizing Earth Radiation Budget Channel 10C measurements (1978-1990), Greenwich Observatory faculae data (1874-1975), and Taipei Observatory Active Region data (1964-1991). Analysis of the two separate events was carried out by treating each as a discrete time series determined by the length of each solar cycle. The results show that the global SAT responded closely to the input of solar cyclical activities, S, with a quantitative relation of T = 1.62 * S with a correlation coefficient of 0.61. This correlation peaks at 0.71 with a built-in time lag of 32 months in temperature response. Solar forcing in interannual time scale was also detected and the derived relationship of T = 0.17 * S with a correlation coefficient of 0.66 was observed. Our analysis shows derived climate sensitivities approximately fit the theoretical feedback slope, 4T(sup 3).
Kim, Hongsuk H.↗
Venus O2 visible and IR nightglow: Implications for lower thermosphere dynamics and chemistry
The National Center for Atmospheric Research thermospheric general circulation model for the Venus thermosphere is modified to examine two observed night airglow features, both of which serve as sensitive tracers of the thermospheric circulation. New O2 nightglow data from the Pioneer Venus Orbiter (PVO) star tracker (O2 Herzberg II at 400-800 nm) and ground-based telescopes (O2 IR at 1.27 microns) yield additional model constraints for estimating Venus winds over 100-130 km. Atomic oxygen, produced by dayside CO2 photolysis peaking near 110 km, and transported to the nightside by the global wind system, is partially destroyed through three-body recombination, yielding the O2 Herzberg II visible nightglow. This emission is very sensitive to horizontal winds at altitudes between 100 and 130 km. Other trace species catalytic reactions also contribute to the production of the very strong nightside infrared (1.27 microns) emission. This paper examines the dynamical and chemical implications of these new data using the Venus thermospheric general circulation model (VTGCM) as an analysis tool. Three-dimensional calculations are presented for both solar maximum and solar medium conditions, corresponding to early PVO (1979-1981) and PVO entry (mid-1992) time periods. Very distinct periods are identified in which zonal winds are alternately weak and strong in the Venus lower thermosphere. VTGCM sensitivity studies are conducted to assess the impacts of potential changes in thermospheric zonal and day-to-night winds, and eddy diffusion on the corresponding nightglow intensities. It appears that cyclostrophic balance extends above 80 km periodically, owing to a reversal of the upper mesosphere latitudinal temperature gradient, and thereby producing strong zonal winds and correspondingly modified O2 nightglow distributions that are observed.
Bougher, S. W.↗
SULI Research Report Paper
Hybrid-CMOS (hCMOS) nanosecond x-ray imagers are a powerful timeresolved HED (high-energy-density) diagnostic due to their sensitivity to visible light, x-rays, and charged particles. However, significant pseudosinusoidal background oscillations have been observed in these sensors when exposed to an early incident excitation, a phenomenon that has been experimentally linked the sensor’s bond wire inductance. We analyze the oscillations both in the time domain and spatially to account for variations on the pixel level. Both theoretical techniques and analysis of experimental data have shown that the oscillations are a global sensor phenomenon. In addition, we effectively describe the oscillations with a physics-based model, giving further insight into the processes affecting them. This technique allows the hCMOS user to subtract out the oscillations from their measurements and improve accuracy.
46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
Efficient Parametric Uncertainty Analysis of an Earth Entry Vehicle Concept Using Least Angle Regression
The objective of this work was to outline and apply an efficient and accurate parametric un-certainty propagation approach to the analysis of convective heating on an Earth entry vehicle concept. The described approach was based on Least Angle Regression used to solve a sparse and underdetermined linear system in the point-collocation non-intrusive polynomial chaos surrogate method. This approach involved an iterative process to computing the non-zero terms of the underlying polynomial chaos model using only enough samples to converge uncertainty interval predictions and Sobol index values based global nonlinear sensitivity estimates. The Earth entry vehicle was analyzed at three points along a representative trajectory for a Mars return mission. 329 sources of uncertainty were identified in the computational fluid dynamics model used to predict the forebody convective heating. These included uncertainty in flow field chemical rates, collision integrals, heats of formation, surface finite rate char model reaction rates, wall roughness height, and the turbulent Schmidt number. Results from this study showed that convective heating uncertainty as high as 50% of the nominal was predicted with only about 50 evaluations of the computational model. This was far fewer than would be required for a sampling-based approach or a full basis polynomial chaos model, which would have required over 50,000 samples. Additionally, results showed that over 90% of the total convective heating uncertainty was due to uncertainty in the N2catalytic rate on the surface, while the remainder of the uncertainty was attributed to the turbulent Schmidt number and the wall roughness uncertainties.
Thomas K West IV↗
High Reynolds Number Testing of the NATO AVT-298 SWiFT Configuration at the National Transonic Facility
A high Reynolds number wind tunnel test of the NATO AVT-298 Swept Wing Flow Test (SWiFT) configuration was conducted in the National Transonic Facility at the NASA Langley Research Center during the summer of 2023. The SWiFT research model geometry has relevance to both blended/hybrid wing body (BWB/HWB) and unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV) configurations, and the test campaign was the culmination of an international collaboration under the NATO AVT-298 research task group. The main objectives of the test were to investigate Reynolds number scaling effects on low-speed stability & control characteristics and to examine the onset and progression of flow separation on the wings particularly near the wing crank. Force & moment and surface pressure data were acquired at Mach numbers from 0.2 to 0.8, Reynolds numbers from 2.5 to 34 million, angles of attack from -3 to 20 degrees, and sideslip angles from -10 to 10 degrees. Boundary layer transition detection techniques utilizing static pressure taps, unsteady pressure transducers, and sublimating chemicals were used on the model in a free/natural transition state or a forced transition state using trip dots. Pressure sensitive paint was used to obtain a global surface pressure profile on the model and an advanced laser velocimetry technique was used to obtain velocity measurements in the wake downstream of the wing crank. The results from the test showed clear Reynolds number scaling effects on the maximum lift coefficient and pitching moment coefficient at Mach 0.2, while also capturing significant hysteresis effects. The data acquired from the test will ultimately help improve computational aerodynamic analysis and design tools for application to future BWB-type vehicle configurations.
NATO AVT-298↗
High Reynolds Number Testing of the NATO AVT-298 SWiFT Configuration at the National Transonic Facility
A high Reynolds number wind tunnel test of the NATO AVT-298 Swept Wing Flow Test (SWiFT) configuration was conducted in the National Transonic Facility at the NASA Langley Research Center during the summer of 2023. The SWiFT research model geometry has relevance to both blended/hybrid wing body (BWB/HWB) and unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV) configurations, and the test campaign was the culmination of an international collaboration under the NATO AVT-298 research task group. The main objectives of the test were to investigate Reynolds number scaling effects on low-speed stability & control characteristics and to examine the onset and progression of flow separation on the wings particularly near the wing crank. Force & moment and surface pressure data were acquired at Mach numbers from 0.2 to 0.8, Reynolds numbers from 2.5 to 34 million, angles of attack from -3 to 20 degrees, and sideslip angles from -10 to 10 degrees. Boundary layer transition detection techniques utilizing static pressure taps, unsteady pressure transducers, and sublimating chemicals were used on the model in a free/natural transition state or a forced transition state using trip dots. Pressure sensitive paint was used to obtain a global surface pressure profile on the model and an advanced laser velocimetry technique was used to obtain velocity measurements in the wake downstream of the wing crank. The results from the test showed clear Reynolds number scaling effects on the maximum lift coefficient and pitching moment coefficient at Mach 0.2, while also capturing significant hysteresis effects. The data acquired from the test will ultimately help improve computational aerodynamic analysis and design tools for application to future BWB-type vehicle configurations.
BWB/HWB↗