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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 433 records · Page 24
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting boron coordination in multicomponent borate and borosilicate glasses using analytical models and machine learning

Accurate prediction of boron coordination in multicomponent glasses is critical in glass science and technology as it strongly affects the properties of borate and borosilicate glasses. We have collected a dataset containing 657 glasses from literature with boron coordination values and developed models using analytical functions based on the well accepted Dell, Xiao and Bray model. Good prediction of boron coordination with a R 2 value higher than 0.8 was obtained. The large variation of boron coordination from experiments, originated from sample preparations and characterizations, led to difficulties in obtaining models with better prediction performance. Various machine learning (ML) algorithms were evaluated and slightly better prediction performance was observed; however, interpretation of the ML models is less straight forward. In conclusion, this study developed various models capable of providing quantitative boron coordination predictions, providing insights into its structural roles in multi-component glasses, and suggesting fruitful areas for future research.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2012

Finite Element Models for Electron Beam Freeform Fabrication Process

Electron beam freeform fabrication (EBF3) is a member of an emerging class of direct manufacturing processes known as solid freeform fabrication (SFF); another member of the class is the laser deposition process. Successful application of the EBF3 process requires precise control of a number of process parameters such as the EB power, speed, and metal feed rate in order to ensure thermal management; good fusion between the substrate and the first layer and between successive layers; minimize part distortion and residual stresses; and control the microstructure of the finished product. This is the only effort thus far that has addressed computer simulation of the EBF3 process. The models developed in this effort can assist in reducing the number of trials in the laboratory or on the shop floor while making high-quality parts. With some modifications, their use can be further extended to the simulation of laser, TIG (tungsten inert gas), and other deposition processes. A solid mechanics-based finite element code, ABAQUS, was chosen as the primary engine in developing these models whereas a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code, Fluent, was used in a support role. Several innovative concepts were developed, some of which are highlighted below. These concepts were implemented in a number of new computer models either in the form of stand-alone programs or as user subroutines for ABAQUS and Fluent codes. A database of thermo-physical, mechanical, fluid, and metallurgical properties of stainless steel 304 was developed. Computing models for Gaussian and raster modes of the electron beam heat input were developed. Also, new schemes were devised to account for the heat sink effect during the deposition process. These innovations, and others, lead to improved models for thermal management and prediction of transient/residual stresses and distortions. Two approaches for the prediction of microstructure were pursued. The first was an empirical approach involving the computation of thermal gradient, solidification rate, and velocity (G,R,V) coupled with the use of a solidification map that should be known a priori. The second approach relies completely on computer simulation. For this purpose a criterion for the prediction of morphology was proposed, which was combined with three alternative models for the prediction of microstructure; one based on solidification kinetics, the second on phase diagram, and the third on differential scanning calorimetry data. The last was found to be the simplest and the most versatile; it can be used with multicomponent alloys and rapid solidification without any additional difficulty. For the purpose of (limited) experimental validation, finite element models developed in this effort were applied to three different shapes made of stainless steel 304 material, designed expressly for this effort with an increasing level of complexity. These finite element models require large computation time, especially when applied to deposits with multiple adjacent beads and layers. This problem can be overcome, to some extent, by the use of fast, multi-core computers. Also, due to their numerical nature coupled with the fact that solid mechanics- based models are being used to represent the material behavior in liquid and vapor phases as well, the models have some inherent approximations that become more pronounced when dealing with multi-bead and multi-layer deposits.

Chandra, Umesh↗
DOE OSTI2021

Gaussian processes for autonomous data acquisition at large-scale synchrotron and neutron facilities

The execution and analysis of complex experiments are challenged by the vast dimensionality of the underlying parameter spaces. Although an increase in data-acquisition rates should allow broader querying of the parameter space, the complexity of experiments and the subtle dependence of the model function on input parameters remains daunting owing to the sheer number of variables. New strategies for autonomous data acquisition are being developed, with one promising direction being the use of Gaussian process regression (GPR). GPR is a quick, non-parametric and robust approximation and uncertainty quantification method that can be applied directly to autonomous data acquisition. We review GPR-driven autonomous experimentation and illustrate its functionality using real-world examples from large experimental facilities in the USA and France. We introduce the basics of a GPR-driven autonomous loop with a focus on Gaussian processes, and then shift the focus to the infrastructure that needs to be built around GPR to create a closed loop. Finally, the case studies we discuss show that Gaussian-process-based autonomous data acquisition is a widely applicable method that can facilitate the optimal use of instruments and facilities by enabling the efficient acquisition of high-value datasets.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Higher-order LaSDI: Reduced order modeling with multiple time derivatives

Solving complex partial differential equations (PDEs) is essential across scientific disciplines but often requires numerical models that can be prohibitively expensive in time-sensitive applications. Reduced-order models (ROMs) address this challenge by exploiting low-dimensional structure to create fast approximations. The Latent Space Dynamics Identification (LaSDI) framework has demonstrated success in learning ROMs for parameterized PDE families, but remains limited to first-order systems. Here, in this paper, we propose Higher-Order LaSDI (HLaSDI), which extends the LaSDI framework to PDEs with arbitrary order of time derivatives. This generalization significantly expands the applicability of LaSDI-based methods to systems previously outside their scope, including hyperbolic PDEs. We demonstrate HLaSDI’s accuracy and efficiency on several linear and nonlinear benchmark problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty-Aware, Structure-Preserving Machine Learning Approach for Domain Shift Detection From Nonlinear Dynamic Responses of Structural Systems

Complex structural systems deployed for aerospace, civil, or mechanical applications must operate reliably under varying operational conditions. Structural health monitoring (SHM) systems help ensure the reliability of these systems by providing continuous monitoring of the state of the structure. SHM relies on synthesizing measured data with a predictive model to make informed decisions about structural states. However, these models—which may be thought of as a form of a digital twin—need to be updated continuously as structural changes (e.g., due to damage) arise. We propose an uncertainty-aware machine learning model that enforces distance preservation of the original input state space and then encodes a distance-aware mechanism via a Gaussian process (GP) kernel. The proposed approach leverages the spectral-normalized neural GP algorithm to combine the flexibility of neural networks with the advantages of GP, subjected to structure-preserving constraints, to produce an uncertainty-aware model. This model is used to detect domain shift due to structural changes that cannot be observed directly because they may be spatially isolated (e.g., inside a joint or localized damage). This work leverages detection theory to detect domain shift systematically given statistical features of the prediction variance produced by the model. The proposed approach is demonstrated on a nonlinear structure being subjected to damage conditions. In conclusion, it is shown that the proposed approach is able to rely on distances of the transformed input state space to predict increased variance in shifted domains while being robust to normative changes.

Algorithms↗
DOE OSTI2022

Landmark-Warped Emulators for Models with Misaligned Functional Response

Many computer models output functional data, and in some cases, these functional data have similar, but misaligned, shape characteristics. In this paper, we introduce a general approach for building emulators for computer models that output misaligned functional data when key values in the functional response (landmarks) can be easily identified. This approach has two main parts: modeling the aligned (using the landmarks) functional data, and modeling the functions that map the misaligned data to the aligned space (warping functions). As the warping functions are required to be monotonic, we give special attention to modeling monotonic functional response data. We discuss how our approach can be easily applied for a variety of typical emulators, such as Gaussian processes, Bayesian multivariate adaptive regression splines, and Bayesian additive regression trees, and how sensitivity analysis can be performed. We demonstrate our approach by building emulators for two applications: (1) a high-energy-density physics computer model used to simulate inertial confinement fusion ignition experiments, where model outputs are highly misaligned, and (2) a multiphysics continuum hydrocode used to simulate high-velocity impact experiments, where model outputs are only slightly misaligned. In case (1) traditional methods cannot be applied, while in (2) they can be applied, but the proposed method performs significantly better.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Parametric, Data-Driven, Non-Intrusive Reduced-Order Model Framework for Crystal Plasticity Simulations of Voids

The influence of the internal structure at micrometer length scales on the deformation of polycrystalline materials can be effectively captured using crystal plasticity finite element methods (CPFEM). However, the complexity and nonlinearity of the deformation equations CPFEM solves demand significant computational power and resources to achieve accurate predictions, limiting its broader application. To address this challenge, we have identified a reduced-order representation of the complex data in order to establish a computationally efficient reduced-order models (ROM) and drastically reduce the computational expense of CPFEM. Specifically, in this work, we developed a parametric, data-driven, and non-intrusive ROM framework for CPFEM using proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) and sparse variational Gaussian process (SVGP) regression for single-crystal microstructures under tensile loading conditions. The developed protocol enables one to compress field into a latent/low-dimensional space described by principal component analysis (PCA) via the singular value decomposition (SVD) algorithm. As a result, the high-dimensional data are reduced to a significantly smaller amount of dimensions with POD bases and POD coefficients. Furthermore, we deployed an ensemble of SVGPs—extended from the classical Gaussian process (GP) regression for scalability and handling big data—in a massively parallel manner to train and predict latent POD coefficients using known POD bases from a set of previously obtained simulations results. Lastly, using the predicted POD coefficients, we reconstructed the full-field results and showed reasonable agreement compared with the true values obtained from running CPFEM. The developed framework is validated with a set of CPFEM simulations of a single embedded void in single-crystal aluminum alloy. While the framework is broadly applicable, this work specifically focuses on single-crystal microstructures, a single load case (e.g., tensile), and a specific void geometry (spherical).

Anisotropy↗
DOE OSTI2026

Latent space dynamics identification for interface tracking with application to shock-induced pore collapse

Capturing sharp, evolving interfaces remains a central challenge in reduced-order modeling, especially when data is limited and the system exhibits localized nonlinearities or discontinuities. Here, we propose LaSDI-IT (Latent Space Dynamics Identification for Interface Tracking), a data-driven framework that combines low-dimensional latent dynamics learning with explicit interface-aware encoding to enable accurate and efficient modeling of physical systems involving moving material boundaries. At the core of LaSDI-IT is a revised autoencoder architecture that jointly reconstructs the physical field and an indicator function representing material regions or phases, allowing the model to track complex interface evolution without requiring detailed physical models or mesh adaptation. The latent dynamics are learned through linear regression in the encoded space and generalized across parameter regimes using Gaussian process interpolation with greedy sampling. We demonstrate LaSDI-IT on the problem of shock-induced pore collapse in high explosives, a process characterized by sharp temperature gradients and dynamically deforming pore geometries. The method achieves relative prediction errors below 9% across the parameter space, accurately recovers key quantities of interest such as pore area and hot spot formation, and matches the performance of dense training with only half the data. This latent dynamics prediction was 10 6 times faster than the conventional high-fidelity simulation, proving its utility for multi-query applications. These results highlight LaSDI-IT as a general, data-efficient framework for modeling discontinuity-rich systems in computational physics, with potential applications in multiphase flows, fracture mechanics, and phase change problems.

Gaussian process↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty quantification in machine learning for engineering design and health prognostics: A tutorial

On top of machine learning (ML) models, uncertainty quantification (UQ) functions as an essential layer of safety assurance that could lead to more principled decision making by enabling sound risk assessment and management. The safety and reliability improvement of ML models empowered by UQ has the potential to significantly facilitate the broad adoption of ML solutions in high-stakes decision settings, such as healthcare, manufacturing, and aviation, to name a few. In this tutorial, we aim to provide a holistic lens on emerging UQ methods for ML models with a particular focus on neural networks and the applications of these UQ methods in tackling engineering design as well as prognostics and health management problems. Towards this goal, we start with a comprehensive classification of uncertainty types, sources, and causes pertaining to UQ of ML models. Next, we provide a tutorial-style description of several state-of-the-art UQ methods: Gaussian process regression, Bayesian neural network, neural network ensemble, and deterministic UQ methods focusing on spectral-normalized neural Gaussian process. Established upon the mathematical formulations, we subsequently examine the soundness of these UQ methods quantitatively and qualitatively (by a toy regression example) to examine their strengths and shortcomings from different dimensions. Then, we review quantitative metrics commonly used to assess the quality of predictive uncertainty in classification and regression problems. Afterward, we discuss the increasingly important role of UQ of ML models in solving challenging problems in engineering design and health prognostics. In conclusion, two case studies with source codes available on GitHub are used to demonstrate these UQ methods and compare their performance in the life prediction of lithium-ion batteries at the early stage (case study 1) and the remaining useful life prediction of turbofan engines (case study 2).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Differentiable Hydrology Approach for Modeling With Time-Varying Parameters

In the analysis of observational data with mathematical models, it is often desirable to let one or more model parameters vary with time to account for changing environmental conditions or to offer more flexibility. A standard approach for dynamic models is to allow for the number of parameters to grow as a function of time, leading to a high-dimensional inference problem for long data records. We propose using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, a gradient-based Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, to perform Bayesian inference for time-varying parameters (TVP) in hydrology models. As derivatives of model error functions with regard to parameters are not available in closed form, we implemented the GR4J rainfall-runoff models in Theano/PyMC3, and Jax/NumPyro, allowing for the application of automatic differentiation techniques. A simulation experiment assessing the viability of these methods for recovering underlying temporal variation in parameters indicates that a discrete Gaussian random walk-based prior appears to be best suited across a range of scenarios while the continuous-time Gaussian process compares relatively poorly. In an analysis of 20 years of daily real-world streamflow records from the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) hydrology data set with increasing data sparsity and at multiple temporal resolutions, we find that TVP inference with gradient-based MCMC is a flexible and reliable approach for analyzing hydrology models with dynamic parameter sets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Neural network emulation of flow in heavy-ion collisions at intermediate energies

Applications of new techniques in machine learning are speeding up progress in research in various fields. In this work, we construct and evaluate a deep neural network (DNN) to be used within a Bayesian statistical framework as a faster and more reliable alternative to the Gaussian process (GP) emulator of an isospin-dependent Boltzmann-Uehling-Uhlenbeck (IBUU) transport model simulator of heavy-ion reactions at intermediate beam energies. We found strong evidence of the DNN being able to emulate the IBUU simulator's prediction on the strengths of protons' directed and elliptical flow very efficiently even with small training datasets and with accuracy about ten times higher than the GP. Here, limitations of our present work and future improvements are also discussed.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evolution of in-medium baryon-baryon scattering cross sections and stiffness of dense nuclear matter from Bayesian analyses of FOPI proton-flow excitation functions

Within a Bayesian statistical framework using a Gaussian process (GP) emulator for an isospin-dependent Boltzmann-Uehling-Uhlenbeck (IBUU) transport model simulator of heavy-ion reactions with momentum-independent Skyrme interactions, we infer from the proton directed and elliptical flow in mid-central Au + Au reactions, measured at beam energies from 150 to 1200 MeV/nucleon by the FOPI Collaboration, the posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) of the in-medium baryon-baryon scattering cross section (BBSCS) modification factor 𝑋 (with respect to their free-space values) and the stiffness parameter 𝐾 of dense nuclear matter. Here, we find that the most probable value of 𝑋 evolves from around 0.7 to 1.0 as the beam energy 𝐸 beam /𝐴 increases. On the other hand, the posterior PDF⁡(𝐾) may have dual peaks having roughly the same height or extended shoulders at high 𝐾 values. More quantitatively, the posterior PDF⁡(𝐾) changes from having a major peak around 220 MeV, characterizing a soft EOS in the reaction at 𝐸 beam /𝐴 = 150 MeV, to one that peaks around 320 MeV, indicating a stiff EOS in the reactions at 𝐸 beam /𝐴 higher than about 600 MeV. The transition from soft to stiff happens in mid-central Au + Au reactions at beam energies around 250 MeV/nucleon in which 𝐾 = 220 MeV and 𝐾 = 320 MeV are approximately equally probable. Altogether, the FOPI proton-flow excitation function data indicate a gradual hardening of hot and dense nuclear matter as its density and temperature increase in reactions with higher beam energies.

nuclear matter↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Bayesian Approach for Estimating Uncertainty in Stochastic Economic Dispatch considering Wind Power Penetration

The increasing penetration of renewable energy resources in power systems, represented as random processes, converts the traditional deterministic economic dispatch problem into a stochastic one. To estimate the uncertainty in this stochastic economic dispatch problem for forecasting purposes, the conventional Monte-Carlo method is prohibitively time-consuming for practical applications. To overcome this problem, here we propose a novel Gaussian-process-emulator-based approach to quantify the uncertainty in the stochastic economic dispatch considering wind power penetration. Facing high-dimensional real-world data representing the correlated uncertainties from wind generation, a manifold-learning-based Isomap algorithm is proposed to efficiently represent the low-dimensional hidden probabilistic structure of the data. In this low-dimensional latent space, with Latin hypercube sampling as the computer experimental design, a Gaussian-process emulator is used, for the first time, to serve as a nonparametric, surrogate model for the original complicated stochastic economic dispatch model. This reduced-order representative allows us to evaluate the economic dispatch solver at sampled values with a negligible computational cost while maintaining a desirable accuracy. Simulation results conducted on the IEEE 118-bus test system reveal the impressive performance of the proposed method.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1972

Digital simulation of continuous error models with application to an instrument landing system error

A digital simulation of the continuous error of the localized beam of a conventional instrument landing system is discussed. The digital simulation was developed during the analysis of space shuttle navigation capabilities. A discrete mathematical model for use on a digital computer is described. The model generates an output random sequence which is equivalent, for simulation purposes, to the desired random process. The model is a system of difference equations driven by a zero-mean Gaussian random sequence.

Merrick, R. B.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Covariances and spectra of the kinematics and dynamics of nonlinear waves

Using the Stokes waves as a model of nonlinear waves and considering the linear component as a narrow-band Gaussian process, the covariances and spectra of velocity and acceleration components and pressure for points in the vicinity of still water level were derived taking into consideration the effects of free surface fluctuations. The results are compared with those obtained earlier using linear Gaussian waves.

Tung, C. C.↗
NASA NTRS1993

X-ray light curves of active galactic nuclei are phase incoherent

We compute the Fourier phase spectra for the light curves of five low-luminosity active galactic nuclei observed by EXOSAT. There is no statistically significant phase coherence in any of them. This statement is equivalent, subject to a technical caveat, to a demonstration that their fluctuation statistics are Gaussian. Models in which the X-ray output is controlled wholly by a unitary process undergoing a nonlinear limit cycle are therefore ruled out, while models with either a large number of randomly excited independent oscillation modes or nonlinearly interacting spatially dependent oscillations are favored. We also demonstrate how the degree of phase coherence in light curve fluctuations influences the application of causality bounds on internal length scales.

Krolik, Julian↗
NASA NTRS1976

Models and error analyses in urban air quality estimation

Estimation theory has been applied to a wide range of aerospace problems. Application of this expertise outside the aerospace field has been extremely limited, however. This paper describes the use of covariance error analysis techniques in evaluating the accuracy of pollution estimates obtained from a variety of concentration measuring devices. It is shown how existing software developed for aerospace applications can be applied to the estimation of pollution through the processing of measurement types involving a range of spatial and temporal responses. The modeling of pollutant concentration by meandering Gaussian plumes is described in some detail. Time averaged measurements are associated with a model of the average plume, using some of the same state parameters and thus avoiding the problem of state memory. The covariance analysis has been implemented using existing batch estimation software. This usually involves problems in handling dynamic noise; however, the white dynamic noise has been replaced by a band-limited process which can be easily accommodated by the software.

Englar, T., Jr.↗