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Evolving Electricity Supply and Demand to Achieve Net-Zero Emissions: Insights from the EMF-37 Study
This paper explores the role of electricity in achieving economy-wide net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050 in the United States based on results from 17 models as part of the 37th Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF-37). In the study's Net-Zero scenario, the models use diverse pathways to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, with gross energy-related residual emissions ranging from 17.2 to 66.6 % of 2020 levels. Electricity consistently emerges as central to achieving net-zero, with models projecting rapid electrification of end-uses and rapidly declining CO2 intensity of electricity. However, the extent of electrification and the technology mix to decarbonize the power sector vary considerably across models. In the Net-Zero scenario, electricity is projected to evolve from ~20 % of final energy in 2020 to 17-63 % in 2050 across the models driven by electrification in all sectors-buildings, industry, and transportation-and, to a lesser extent by direct air capture. By 2050, total electricity consumption increases by 24-176 % (relative to 2020), accompanied by significant expansion in renewable electricity production. Together, solar and wind generation grows by 175-834 %, supplying 45-90 % of total electricity in 2050, with wind achieving slightly higher shares than solar. Electricity storage technologies are deployed at scale to support wind and solar generation. The electricity generation mix varies across models: some project almost complete reliance on renewables, while others see a substantial role for natural gas, often with carbon capture and storage. This paper synthesizes the rich diversity of modeling approaches and results, highlighting differing views on how key drivers of electricity demand and supply might evolve.
Blockchain Enabled Intelligence of Federated Systems (BELIEFS): An attack-tolerant trustable distributed intelligence paradigm
In this article, a Blockchain Enabled Intelligence of Federated Systems (BELIEFS) is proposed to conduct cooperative control for the multi-regional large-scale power system with a multi-agents system (MAS). By establishing a two levels blockchain, each regional AI agent can simultaneously manage intra-regional controllers and cooperate with other AI agents. Under the consensus mechanism, the agents, which respectively conducted distributed deep reinforcement learning (DDRL) algorithm in multi-regions, can have the tolerant capability of malicious attacks in their training process. The demonstration of the proposed approach is within a multi-regional large-scale interconnected power system. Under the mode of "centralized dispatching and hierarchical management", this article aims to definite a mathematical model to deal with the control problem of the power systems. With the comparison experiments, the effectiveness and efficiency of our proposed method in the training process are verified. In addition, malicious attacks are set on the main chain and shard chains to verify the attack-tolerant capability. We expect that such approach and results can suggest a new paradigm of attack-tolerant trustable distributed AI deployment.
Methodologies for Design, Characterization and Testing of Electrolytes that Enable Extreme Fast Charging of Lithium-ion Cells
Selection, testing and validation of electrolyte candidates for Li-ion cells are discussed, based on a 10-minute target for extreme fast charge (XFC). A combination of modeling and laboratory measurements create a timely and synergistic approach to identifying candidate electrolyte formulations. Multi-solvent systems provide a balanced set of properties, wherein lower molecular-weight solvents offer reduced viscosity, increased species diffusivity, and mitigation of concentration polarization at high charge rates. Carefully selected formulations can exhibit peak conductivity and usable conductivity range of two to three times that of the baseline EC-EMC (3:7, wt.) + LiPF 6 . Candidates are also chosen based on stability and longevity within the cell environment. Lab testing coincides with property predictions from the Advanced Electrolyte Model (AEM) and a macro-scale cell model. Furthermore, cell testing utilized coin and pouch cells having NMC532 or NMC811 cathodes with graphite electrodes. Results indicate combinations of low-molecular weight solvents are key for fast-charge electrolytes as they extend the useful conductivity range to both low and higher salt concentrations, and possess higher self-diffusivities compared to conventional solvents. This reduces impacts from concentration polarization. The choice of electrolyte also influences the tendency for lithium metal deposition at the anode, as showcased by experimental and modeling results herein.
Black Carbon Deposited in Hariqin Glacier of the Central Tibetan Plateau Record Changes in the Emission from Eurasia
Black carbon (BC), by the combustion of fossil fuels and biomass, has profound effects on climate change and glacier retreat in industrial eras. In the present study, we report refractory BC (rBC) in an ice core spanning 1850–2014, retrieved from the Hariqin Glacier of the Tanggula Mountains in the central Tibetan Plateau, measured using a single particle soot photometer (SP2). The rBC concentration shows a three-fold increase since the 1950s. The mean rBC concentration was 0.71±0.52 ng mL-1 during 1850s–1940s and 2.11±1.60 ng mL-1 during 1950s–2010s. The substantial increase in rBC since the 1950s is consistent with rBC ice core records from the Tibetan Plateau and Eastern Europe. According to the predominant atmospheric circulation patterns over the glacier and timing of changes in regional emissions, the post-1950 amplification of rBC concentration in the central Tibetan Plateau most likely reflects increases in emissions in Eastern Europe, former USSR, the Middle East, and South Asia. Despite the low-level background rBC concentrations in the ice cores from the Tibetan Plateau, the present study highlights a remarkable increase in anthropogenic BC emissions in recent decades and the consequent influence on glaciers in the Tibetan Plateau.
Enhanced Oblique Decision Tree Enabled Policy Extraction for Deep Reinforcement Learning in Power System Emergency Control
Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) algorithms have successfully solved many challenging problems in various power system control scenarios. However, their decision-making process is usually regarded as black-boxes. Furthermore, how DRL models interact with human intelligence remains an open problem. Thus, this paper proposes a policy extraction framework to extract a complex DRL model into an explainable policy. This framework includes three parts: 1) DRL training and data generation. We train an agent for a specific control task and generate data, which contains the control policy of the agent. 2) Policy extraction. We propose an information gain rate based weighted oblique decision tree (IGR-WODT) for DRL policy extraction. 3) Policy evaluation. We define three metrics to evaluate the performance of the proposed approach. A case study for the under-voltage load shedding problem shows that the IGR-WODT presents a performance enhancement compared with DRL, weighted oblique decision tree, and univariate decision tree. The proposed policy extraction method could provide an intuitive explanation of the neural network decision-making process to the dispatchers when making final decisions on power grid operation. Also, the resulted rule-based controller could replace the deep neural network-based controller in many field edge devices with limited computing resources, providing comparable performance.
High-pressure phase transformation of carbonate malachite Cu2(CO3)(OH)2 driven by [CuO6] regularization and [CO3] rotation
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Monitoring and early warning system of porcine pasteurellosis based on WebGIS
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A prognostic risk model for glioma patients by systematic evaluation of genomic variations
The overall survival rate of gliomas has not significantly improved despite new effective treatments, mainly due to tumor heterogeneity and drug delivery. Here, we perform an integrated clinic-genomic analysis of 1, 477 glioma patients from a Chinese cohort and a TCGA cohort and propose a potential prognostic model for gliomas. We identify that SBS11 and SBS23 mutational signatures are associated with glioma recurrence and indicate worse prognosis only in low-grade type of gliomas and IDH-Mut subtype. We also identify 42 genomic features associated with distinct clinical outcome and successfully used ten of these to develop a prognostic risk model of gliomas. The high-risk glioma patients with shortened survival were characterized by high level of frequent copy number alterations including PTEN, CDKN2A/B deletion, EGFR amplification, less IDH1 or CIC gene mutations, high infiltration levels of immunosuppressive cells and activation of G2M checkpoint and Oxidative phosphorylation oncogenic pathway.
Fulfilling global climate pledges can lead to major increase in forest land on Tibetan Plateau
The UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow spawned the enhancement and updating of many nations’ climate pledges. Previous research has investigated the effects of these pledges on limiting planetary warming, but their spatially explicit effects on land use/cover are unknown. Here, we linked the Glasgow pledges and the spatially explicit responses of the Tibetan Plateau’s land systems. We found that while fulfilling global climate pledges may not significantly affect the global shares of forestland, grassland/pasture, shrubland, and cropland, it needs a 9.4% increase in the forest area of the Tibetan Plateau. This need is an area 11.4 times the increase of the plateau’s forest in the 2010s, or greater than the size of Belgium. The new forest comes mainly from the medium-density grassland in the Yangtze River basin, calling for more proactive environmental management for the headwaters area of this longest river in Asia.
Optimization of synthesis parameters and pressure effect for layered honeycomb ruthenate SrRu[subscript 2]O[subscript 6]
Abstract not provided
Catalytic Site Requirements for N2O Decomposition on Cu-, Co-, and Fe-SSZ-13 Zeolites
N2O decomposition is investigated on Cu, Co and Fe-exchanged SSZ-13 zeolite catalysts at relatively low metal loadings. The catalysts are synthesized by solution ion exchange, and subjected to X-ray diffraction (XRD), temperature-programed-reduction by H2 (H2-TPR), temperature-programed-reaction of N2O (N2O-TPR) coupled with in-situ transmission FTIR, and finally steady-state flow reaction tests. At low N2O pressures (< 0.05 kPa), all catalysts display pseudo first-order kinetics. From Arrhenius analysis, Cu and Fe-SSZ-13 display very different apparent activation energies but similar pre-exponential factors, suggesting their similar reaction mechanisms. N2O decomposition follows a dual-site mechanism, occurring on dimeric M-O-M sites in these catalysts, and O2 is formed by the combination of two O ad-atoms from two vicinal metal sites. Under low N2O pressure (0.05 kPa) and first-order kinetic regime, the reaction is limited by N-O cleavage on bare metal active sites. In comparison to Cu-SSZ-13, the much higher N2O decomposition rate over Fe-SSZ-13 is attributed to the much lower activation barriers for the N-O cleavage step. N2O decomposition occurs on isolated Co2+ ions in Co-SSZ-13. The rate-limiting step is N-O cleavage on an O-occupied Co site in the low-pressure first order kinetic regime. This single-site mechanism leads to much higher pre-exponential factors as compared to the dual-site mechanism. This beneficial factor for reaction rate enhancement, however, is compromised by the much higher activation barriers over this catalyst.
RotEqNet: Rotation-equivariant network for fluid systems with symmetric high-order tensors
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Separation performance of hydrocyclones with medium rearrangement internals
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Revealing the working mechanism of a multi-functional block copolymer binder for lithium-sulfur batteries
The lithium-sulfur (Li-S) battery is one of the most promising substitutes for current energy storage systems because of its low cost, high theoretical capacity, and high energy density. However, the high solubility of intermediate products (i.e., lithium polysulfides) and the resultant shuttle effect lead to rapidly fading capacity and a low coulombic efficiency, which hinder the practical application of Li-S batteries. In this study, block copolymers are constructed with both an ethylene oxide unit and a styrene unit and then used as binders for Li-S batteries. Electrochemical performance improvements are attributed to the synergistic effects contributed by the different units of the block copolymer. Here, the ethylene oxide unit traps polysulfide, which bonds strongly with the intermediate lithium polysulfide, and enhances the transport of lithium ions to reach high capacity. Meanwhile, the styrene unit maintains cathode integrity by improving the mechanical properties and elasticity of the constructed block copolymer to accommodate the large volume changes. By enabling multiple functions via different units in the polymer chain, high sulfur utilization is achieved, polysulfide diffusion is confined, and the shuttle effect is suppressed during the cycle life of Li-S batteries, as revealed by operando ultraviolet–visible spectroscopy and S K-edge X-ray absorption spectroscopy.
Interactive effects of biochar amendment and lead toxicity on soil microbial community
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