Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “GROUP DYNAMICS”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 433 records · Page 24
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1995

Radar cross-section measurements and simulation of a tethered satellite. The small expendable deployer system end-mass payload

The first Small Expendable Deployer System (SEDS-1), a tethered satellite system, was developed by NASA and launched March 29, 1993 as a secondary payload on a United State Air Force (USAF) Delta-2 launch vehicle. The SEDS-1 successfully deployed an instrumented end-mass payload (EMP) on a 20-km nonconducting tether from the second stage of the Delta 2. This paper describes the effort of NASA Langley Research Center's Antenna and Microwave Research Branch to provide assistance to the SEDS Investigators Working Group (IWG) in determining EMP dynamics by analyzing the mission radar skin track data. The radar cross section measurements taken and simulations done for this study are described and comparisons of the measured data with the simulated data for the EMP at 6 GHz are presented.

Cravey, Robin L.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Quasi-biennial oscillation and tropical waves in total ozone

Westward and eastward propagating tropical waves in total ozone are investigated in 13 years (1979-1991) of version 6 total column ozone data from the Nimbus 7 total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) satellite instrument. A clear synchronization between the stratospheric quasi-biennial osciallation (QBO) zonal winds and the fast (periods less than 15 days) propagating waves in tropical TOMS data is detailed. Largest total ozone wave amplitudes (about 3-6 Dobson units) occur when their phase propagation direction is primarily opposite the Singapore QBO lower-stratospheric winds. This effect is most apparent in meridionally symmetric components. Examination of specific episodes, including cross-spectral calculations with Singapore rawinsonde wind data (10-70 hPa), reveals signatures of tropically confined eastward propagating Kelvin waves of zonal wavenumbers 1-2 during the descending eastward QBO phase, consistent with acceleration of that QBO phase by Kelvin waves. The TOMS results are also consistent with possible forcing of the westward QBO wind phase by episodes of both meridionally symmetric and asymmetric westward waves. However, in contrast to the case of eastward (Kelvin) waves the strongest westward events appear to be filtered by, rather than forcing, the westward phase of the stratospheric QBO wind. These dominant westward episodes are interpreted as meridionally symmetric westward global normal modes and tropically confined equatorial-Rossby waves 2-6. The events exhibit phase and group speeds characteristic of wave dynamics rather than simple wind advection. These results underscore the utility of the long time series and excellent horizontal coverage of TOMS data for dynamical investigations in the relatively observation-poor tropical stratosphere.

Ziemke, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Seasonal Variability of Middle Latitude Ozone in the Lowermost Stratosphere Derived from Probability Distribution Functions

We present a study of the distribution of ozone in the lowermost stratosphere with the goal of understanding the relative contribution to the observations of air of either distinctly tropospheric or stratospheric origin. The air in the lowermost stratosphere is divided into two population groups based on Ertel's potential vorticity at 300 hPa. High [low] potential vorticity at 300 hPa suggests that the tropopause is low [high], and the identification of the two groups helps to account for dynamic variability. Conditional probability distribution functions are used to define the statistics of the mix from both observations and model simulations. Two data sources are chosen. First, several years of ozonesonde observations are used to exploit the high vertical resolution. Second, observations made by the Halogen Occultation Experiment [HALOE] on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite [UARS] are used to understand the impact on the results of the spatial limitations of the ozonesonde network. The conditional probability distribution functions are calculated at a series of potential temperature surfaces spanning the domain from the midlatitude tropopause to surfaces higher than the mean tropical tropopause [about 380K]. Despite the differences in spatial and temporal sampling, the probability distribution functions are similar for the two data sources. Comparisons with the model demonstrate that the model maintains a mix of air in the lowermost stratosphere similar to the observations. The model also simulates a realistic annual cycle. By using the model, possible mechanisms for the maintenance of mix of air in the lowermost stratosphere are revealed. The relevance of the results to the assessment of the environmental impact of aircraft effluence is discussed.

Cerniglia, M. C.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Seasonal Variability of Middle Latitude Ozone in the Lowermost Stratosphere Derived from Probability Distribution Functions

We present a study of the distribution of ozone in the lowermost stratosphere with the goal of understanding the relative contribution to the observations of air of either distinctly tropospheric or stratospheric origin. The air in the lowermost stratosphere is divided into two population groups based on Ertel's potential vorticity at 300 hPa. High [low] potential vorticity at 300 hPa suggests that the tropopause is low [high], and the identification of the two groups helps to account for dynamic variability. Conditional probability distribution functions are used to define the statistics of the mix from both observations and model simulations. Two data sources are chosen. First, several years of ozonesonde observations are used to exploit the high vertical resolution. Second, observations made by the Halogen Occultation Experiment [HALOE) on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite [UARS] are used to understand the impact on the results of the spatial limitations of the ozonesonde network. The conditional probability distribution functions are calculated at a series of potential temperature surfaces spanning the domain from the midlatitude tropopause to surfaces higher than the mean tropical tropopause [approximately 380K]. Despite the differences in spatial and temporal sampling, the probability distribution functions are similar for the two data sources. Comparisons with the model demonstrate that the model maintains a mix of air in the lowermost stratosphere similar to the observations. The model also simulates a realistic annual cycle. By using the model, possible mechanisms for the maintenance of mix of air in the lowermost stratosphere are revealed. The relevance of the results to the assessment of the environmental impact of aircraft effluence is discussed.

Cerniglia, M. C.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Design and Testing of a One-Third Scale Soyuz TM Descent Module Spartan Conversion Project Super Loki Instrumentation

The 1992-1993 senior Aerospace Engineering Design class continued work on the post landing configurations for the Assured Crew Return Vehicle. The Assured Crew Return Vehicle will be permanently docked to the space station fulfilling NASA's commitment of Assured Crew Return Capability in the event of an accident or illness aboard the space station. The objective of the project was to give the Assured Crew Return Vehicle Project Office data to feed into their feasibility studies. Three design teams were given the task of developing models with dynamically and geometrically scaled characteristics. Groups one and two combined efforts to design a one-third scale model of the Russian Soyuz TM Descent Module, and an on-board flotation system. This model was designed to determine the flotation characteristics and test the effects of a rigid flotation and orientation system. Group three designed a portable water wave test facility to be located on campus. Because of additional funding from Thiokol Corporation, testing of the Soyuz model and flotation systems took place at the Offshore Technology Research Center. Universities Space Research Association has been studying the use of small expendable launch vehicles for missions which cost less than 200 million dollars. The Crusader2B. which consists of the original Spartan first and second stage with an additional Spartan second stage and the Minuteman III upper stage is being considered for this task. University of Central Florida project accomplishments include an analysis of launch techniques, a modeling technique to determine flight characteristics, and input into the redesign of an existing mobile rail launch platform.

Anderson, Loren A.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Photometric Analysis of the Jovian Ring System and Modeling of Ring Origin and Evolution

We have successfully completed the work described in our proposal. The work supported by this grant resulted in the publication of the following paper: Brooks, S. M., L. W. Esposito, M. R. Showalter, and H. B. Throop. 2002. The size distribution of Jupiter's main ring from Galileo imaging and spectroscopy. Icarus, in press. This was also the major part of Dr. Shawn Brooks PhD dissertation. Dr. Brooks gave oral presentations on this work at the Lunar and Planetary Conference, the annual meetings of the Division for Planetary Sciences of the American Astronomical Society, the annual meetings of the European Geophysical Society, the international Jupiter Conference in Boulder, the Jupiter after Galileo and Cassini Conference in Lisbon and to the Working Group in Non-Linear Dynamics in Potsdam, Germany. This work was reviewed in: Esposito, L. W. 2002. Planetary rings. Rep. hog. Phys. 65, 1741-1783. Planetary rings. LASP reprint 874. Online at http://stacks.iop.org/RoPP/65/1741. Dr. Esposito gave presentations at schools and over the internet on the results of this work. Dr. Brooks lectured in undergraduate and graduate classes on Jupiter's rings, and on the meaning of his research. In August 2003, Dr. Shawn Brooks received the Phd degree from the University of Colorado in Astrophysical and Planetary Sciences.

Esposito, L. W.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Modeling the Extended Neutral Atmosphere and Plasma Environment near Saturn

In the three years of this study we have published five papers in refereed journals. We have first examined satellite sources and their contribution to the observed neutral cloud. Based on the total calculated satellite sources and the spatial distribution of sputtered H20, we concluded that they cannot produce observed OH cloud. The E-ring contribution has been also studied in detail.In order to produce observed OH cloud we suggested that the E-ring might be the dominant source in inner Saturnian magnetosphere. We proposed a possible resupply mechanism which is needed to keep both E-ring and OH cloud in the present state: collisions between E-ring grains and remains of a disrupted satellite near Enceladus Lagrangian points. In this scenario a large amount of material, ranging from a few micrometers to hundred of meters, which is optically invisible at present, is likely to exist there. The fourth paper compares the magnetosheaths of the outer planets. A surprising result is that the hot proton component comprises about 40% of the total density, much larger than predicted by shock theory. Gas dynamic models of the boundaries show that the magnetospheres of Jupiter and Saturn are flattened at the poles. The last paper was published in GRL and is the first based of the model of neutrals developed as a main goal of this grant and which is now operational.This Monte Carlo collision code self- consistently determines the neutral distribution. from the rings and satellites until they are lost by ionization, by collisions with rings, moons, or Saturn, or by escape from Saturn. Our model is unique in that it includes the effects of plasma chemistry and both plasma-neutral and neutral neutral collisions to determine the dynamical evolution of the water group neutrals in Saturn's magnetosphere. The lifetimes of the neutrals against loss to photoionization, charge exchange, electron dissociation and electron impact dissociation are based on the model given by (Richardson et al. 1998) and vary with position in the magnetosphere. The dominant neutral dissociation channels H20->OH+H, H20-> O+H2, and OH->O+H2 are considered.

Richardson, John D.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Optical array for high-quality imaging in harsh environments

Methods and apparatus are disclosed for producing high quality images in uncontrolled or impaired environments. In some examples of the disclosed technology, groups of cameras for high dynamic range (HDR), polarization diversity, and optional other diversity modes are arranged to concurrently image a common scene. For example, in a vehicle checkpoint application, HDR provides discernment of dark objects inside a vehicle, while polarization diversity aids in rejecting glare. Spectral diversity, infrared imaging, and active illumination can be applied for better imaging through a windshield. Preprocessed single-camera images are registered and fused. Faces or other features of interest can be detected in the fused image and identified in a library. Impairments can include weather, insufficient or interfering lighting, shadows, reflections, window glass, occlusions, or moving objects.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optical array for high-quality imaging in harsh environments

Methods and apparatus are disclosed for producing high quality images in uncontrolled or impaired environments. In some examples of the disclosed technology, groups of cameras for high dynamic range (HDR), polarization diversity, and optional other diversity modes are arranged to concurrently image a common scene. For example, in a vehicle checkpoint application, HDR provides discernment of dark objects inside a vehicle, while polarization diversity aids in rejecting glare. Spectral diversity, infrared imaging, and active illumination can be applied for better imaging through a windshield. Preprocessed single-camera images are registered and fused. Faces or other features of interest can be detected in the fused image and identified in a library. Impairments can include weather, insufficient or interfering lighting, shadows, reflections, window glass, occlusions, or moving objects.

Baba, Justin S.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Estimating heterotrophic respiration at large scales: challenges, approaches, and next steps

Heterotrophic respiration (HR), the aerobic and anaerobic processes mineralizing organic matter, is a key carbon flux but one impossible to measure at scales significantly larger than small experimental plots. This impedes our ability to understand carbon and nutrient cycles, benchmark models, or reliably upscale point measurements. Given that a new generation of highly mechanistic, genomic-specific global models is not imminent, we suggest that a useful step to improve this situation would be the development of "Decomposition Functional Types" (DFTs). Analogous to plant functional types (PFTs), DFTs would abstract and capture important differences in HR metabolism and flux dynamics, allowing models to efficiently group and vary these characteristics across space and time. We argue that DFTs should be initially informed by top-down expert opinion, but ultimately developed using bottom-up, data-driven analyses, and provide specific examples of potential dependent and independent variables that could be used. We present and discuss an example clustering analysis to show how model-produced annual HR can be broken into distinct groups associated with global variability in biotic and abiotic factors, and demonstrate that these groups are distinct from already-existing PFTs. A similar analysis, incorporating observational data, could form a basis for future DFTs. Finally, we suggest next steps and critical priorities: collection and synthesis of existing data; more in-depth analyses combining open data with high-performance computing; rigorous testing of analytical results; and planning by the global modeling community for decoupling decomposition from fixed site data. These are all critical steps to build a foundation for DFTs in global models, thus providing the ecological and climate change communities with robust, scalable estimates of HR at large scales.

carbon cycle↗
DOE OSTI2018

The structural and dynamical role of water in natural organic matter: A 2H NMR and XRD study

Natural organic matter (NOM) is an important component in many near-surface geochemical environments, and its properties are greatly affected by the incorporation of water. Because of its importance, the macroscopic behavior and effects of water in NOM and soil organic matter (SOM) have been extensively studied using a wide range of experimental and computational methods. The molecular scale structural and dynamical behavior of water in these materials, however, is less well understood. This paper presents a variable temperature 2 H NMR and XRD study of water in Suwannee River NOM and its fulvic acid (FA) and humic acid (HA) fractions that provides new insight into the dynamical behavior of structurally different types of water and exchangeable hydrogen environments in NOM. The results provide a basis for future studies of more complex natural organic materials and the interaction of organic materials with mineral surfaces. Room temperature 2 H NMR spectra of samples hydrated in 2 H 2 O and then dehydrated, distinguish 2 H 2 O molecules that are in rapid reorientational motion (correlation times, ν c, > 10 5 Hz), 2 H exchanged onto carboxylic sites of the NOM that do not undergo rapid reorientation at frequencies >~10 3 Hz, and 2 H exchanged onto phenolic and possibly other alcohol sites of the NOM that undergoes rapid, but anisotropic, dynamical reorientation. For samples exposed to water and not dried, the XRD results collected at temperatures from 173 to 298 K show the formation of ice-1h in samples exposed to 100% relative humidity (R.H.) but not in samples exposed to 43% R.H. 2 H NMR of those samples collected at temperatures from 313 K to 173 K show the presence of multiple sites. Near room temperature, the spectra contain a narrow resonance for mobile water undergoing rapid isotropic motion, and a broader symmetrical resonance probably due to a combination of more dynamically restricted water molecules and 2 H exchanged onto phenolic and alcohol functional groups undergoing rapid anisotropic motion. The 43% R.H. samples also yield a broader, quadrupole-dominated, resonance for 2 H exchanged onto functional groups of the NOM. With decreasing temperature the resonances for dynamically restricted water molecules and 2 H exchanged onto phenolic and alcohol functional groups become broader, reflecting a decreasing rate of exchange between the water molecules and functional groups and a decreasing rate of reorientation of the 2 H 2 O molecules. The formation of ice-1h is directly reflected in the 2 H spectra of the 100% R.H. samples as a resonance with a quadrupole coupling constant (QCC) of ~180 kHz. For the 43% R.H. samples, there is also a broad, poorly resolved resonance with typical QCCs of ~180 kHz for which the relative signal intensity increases with decreasing temperature. This signal represents 2 H 2 O molecules that are not crystallized in ice-1h but have greatly reduced reorientation frequencies at low temperature and a hydrogen bonding network with hydrogen bond strengths similar to, but somewhat weaker than, ice-1h. Such molecules are also likely to be present in the 100% R.H. samples. At both R.H.s, some of the 2 H 2 O molecules do not freeze and retain their isotropic motion down to 173 K, the lowest temperature investigated.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1986

Technical evaluation report of AGARD Technical Evaluation Meeting on Unsteady Aerodynamics: Fundamentals and Applications to Aircraft Dynamics

From May 6 to 9, 1985, the Fluid Dynamics Panel and Flight Mechanics Panel of AGARD jointly arranged a Symposium on Unsteady Aerodynamics-Fundamentals and Applications to Aircraft Dynamics at the Stadthall, Goettingen, West Germany. This Symposium was organized by an international program committee chaired by Dr. K. J. Orlik-Ruckemann of the Fluid Dynamics Panel. The program consisted of five sessions grouped in two parts: (1) Fundamentals of Unsteady Aerodynamics; and (2) Applications to Aircraft Dynamics. The 35 papers presented at the 4 day meeting are published in AGARD CP 386 and listed in the Appendix. As the papers are already available and cover a very wide field, the evaluators have offered brief comments on every paper, followed by an overall evaluation of the meeting, together with some general conclusions and recommendations.

Mabey, D. G.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Heterogeneous chain dynamics and aggregate lifetimes in precise acid-containing polyethylenes: Experiments and simulations

Melt state dynamics for a series of strictly linear polyethylenes with precisely spaced associating functional groups were investigated. The periodic pendant acrylic acid groups form hydrogen-bonded acid aggregates within the polyethylene (PE) matrix. The dynamics of these nanoscale heterogeneous morphologies were investigated from picosecond to nanosecond timescales by both quasi-elastic neutron scattering (QENS) measurements and fully atomistic molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. Two dynamic processes were observed. The faster dynamic processes which occur at the picosecond timescales are compositionally insensitive and indicative of spatially restricted local motions. The slower dynamic processes are highly composition dependent and indicate the structural relaxation of the polymer backbone. Higher acid contents, or shorter PE spacers between pendant acid groups, slow the structural relaxation timescale and increase the stretching parameter (β) of the structural relaxation. Additionally, the dynamics of specific hydrogen atom positions along the backbone correlate structural heterogeneity imposed by the associating acid groups with a mobility gradient along the polymer backbone. At time intervals (<2 ns), the mean-squared displacements for the four methylene groups closest to the acid groups are up to 10 times smaller than those of methylene groups further from the acid groups. At longer timescales acid aggregates rearrange and the chain dynamics of the slow, near-aggregate regions and the faster bridge regions converge, implying a characteristic timescale for the passage of chains between aggregates. As a result, the characterization of the nanoscale chain dynamics in these associating polymer systems both provides validation of simulation force fields and provides understanding of heterogeneous chain dynamics in associating polymers.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2012

The fate of high redshift massive compact galaxies in dense environments

Massive compact galaxies seem to be more common at high redshift than in the local universe, especially in denser environments. To investigate the fate of such massive galaxies identified at z {approx} 2 we analyse the evolution of their properties in three cosmological hydrodynamical simulations that form virialized galaxy groups of mass {approx} 10{sup 13} M{sub {circle_dot}} hosting a central massive elliptical/S0 galaxy by redshift zero. We find that at redshift {approx} 2 the population of galaxies with M{sub *} > 2 x 10{sup 10} M{sub {circle_dot}} is diverse in terms of mass, velocity dispersion, star formation and effective radius, containing both very compact and relatively extended objects. In each simulation all the compact satellite galaxies have merged into the central galaxy by redshift 0 (with the exception of one simulation where one of such satellite galaxy survives). Satellites of similar mass at z = 0 are all less compact than their high redshift counterparts. They form later than the galaxies in the z = 2 sample and enter the group potential at z < 1, when dynamical friction times are longer than the Hubble time. Also, by z = 0 the central galaxies have increased substantially their characteristic radius via a combination of in situ star formation and mergers. Hence in a group environment descendants of compact galaxies either evolve towards larger sizes or they disappear before the present time as a result of the environment in which they evolve. Since the group-sized halos that we consider are representative of dense environments in the {Lambda}CDM cosmology, we conclude that the majority of high redshift compact massive galaxies do not survive until today as a result of the environment.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS1999

Technology Integration (Task 20) Aeroservoelastic Modeling and Design Studies: Evaluation of Aeroservoelastic Effects on Flutter and Dynamic Gust Response - Part A

The HSCT Flight Controls Group has developed longitudinal control laws, utilizing PTC aeroelastic flexible models to minimize aeroservoelastic interaction effects, for a number of flight conditions. The control law design process resulted in a higher order controller and utilized a large number of sensors distributed along the body for minimizing the flexibility effects. Processes were developed to implement these higher order control laws for performing the dynamic gust loads and flutter analyses. The processes and its validation were documented in Reference 2, for selected flight condition. The analytical results for additional flight conditions are presented in this document for further validation.

Nagaraja, K. S.↗
DOE OSTI2014

Reaction Dynamics of the 4-Methylphenyl Radical ( p -Tolyl) with 1,2-Butadiene (1-Methylallene): Are Methyl Groups Purely Spectators?

The reactions of the 4-tolyl radical (C 6 H 4 CH 3 ) and of the D7-4-tolyl radical (C 6 D 4 CD 3 ) with 1,2-butadiene (C 4 H 6 ) have been probed in crossed molecular beams under single collision conditions at a collision energy of about 54 kJ mol -1 and studied theoretically using ab initio G3(MP2,CC)//B3LYP/6-311G** and statistical RRKM calculations. The results show that the reaction proceeds via indirect scattering dynamics through the formation of a van-der-Waals complex followed by the addition of the radical center of the 4-tolyl radical to the C1 or C3 carbon atoms of 1,2-butadiene. The collision complexes then isomerize by migration of the tolyl group from the C1 (C3) to the C2 carbon atom of the 1,2-butadiene moiety. The resulting intermediate undergoes unimolecular decomposition via elimination of a hydrogen atom from the methyl group of the 1,2-butadiene moiety through a rather loose exit transition state leading to 2-para-tolyl-1,3-butadiene (p4), which likely presents the major reaction product. Our observation combined with theoretical calculations suggest that one methyl group (at the phenyl group) acts as a spectator in the reaction, whereas the other one (at the allene moiety) is actively engaged in the underlying chemical dynamics. On the contrary to the reaction of the phenyl radical with allene, which leads to the formation of indene, the substitution of a hydrogen atom by a methyl group in allene essentially eliminates the formation of bicyclic PAHs such as substituted indenes in the 4-tolyl plus 1,2-butadiene reaction.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Charge Dependence of Local Hydration Dynamics in Poly(Acrylic Acid) Solutions

Localized measurements of hydration dynamics surrounding poly(acrylic acid) (pAA) chains are executed using Overhauser dynamic nuclear polarization relaxometry to determine the role of polymer protonation state on the polymer solvation environment. Alterations in polymer concentration and solution pH uncovered three different regimes of local water dynamics ranging from bulk-water-like to subdued water diffusivity. These experiments, combined with molecular dynamics simulations, reveal that the presence of deprotonated carboxylic acid groups promotes a hydrophilic local environment and extended polymer chain configurations that together incentivize the incorporation of bulk-like water near the polymer. This results in a stretched polymer conformation that leads to faster observed hydration dynamics in the local hydration environment. Meanwhile, protonated carboxylic acid groups are expected to engage in intrapolymer hydrogen bonding between monomer groups, resulting in a more collapsed conformation and slower observed hydration dynamics. The importance of the carboxylic acid groups on mediating hydration behavior is further illustrated by their role in dictating the solvation environment around poly(acrylic acid-stat-(poly(ethylene glycol) methyl ether acrylate) (p(AA-stat-PEGMEA)) copolymers with varying monomer ratios. Furthermore, these local hydration measurements establish a connection between local water dynamics and polymer chain conformation and may provide additional molecular perspective into poly(acrylic acid)’s classification as a superabsorbent polymer.

Conformation↗
DOE OSTI2026

Semi-Analytical Hierarchical Bayesian Inference of Nonlinear Model Structure in Stochastic Dynamics: Applied to Compartmental Models of Infectious Diseases

A Bayesian computational framework for parsimonious inference in stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems is presented. This framework enables the concurrent estimation of system states, time-varying parameters, time-invariant parameters, and the optimal sparsity structure of the model parameters. Because differential equation-based models are often simplified mechanistic or phenomenological representations, robust inference from noisy measurement data requires explicit treatment of model error and uncertainty. Model error and time-varying parameters can be represented as random processes, enabling inference while making minimal assumptions about the underlying sources of discrepancy and variability. Adopting stochastic differential equation representations affords the model significant flexibility, but can also render it susceptible to overfitting during statistical inversion, where the inferred model may track noise rather than the underlying signal. To alleviate the effects of overfitting and to enable the discovery of the optimal sparse representation of the time-invariant parameters, a Bayesian sparse learning algorithm is embedded within the framework. This sparse learning framework adopts an approximate hierarchical Bayesian setting defined by a series of semi-analytical expressions. The model structure inference framework is validated using a stochastic compartmental model for tracking and forecasting active cases of an infectious disease. Compartmental models describe population-level infectious disease dynamics through interactions among population fractions grouped by disease state. Mathematically, such models consist of a system of coupled ordinary differential equations. This example adopts an expressive compartmental model that includes multiple possible interactions between disease states, motivated by early uncertainty surrounding COVID-19 reinfection dynamics and their implications for long-term epidemic forecasting. The sparse learning exercise permits the inference of a priori unknown epidemiological dynamics from simulated public health data, discovering the nested compartmental model that optimizes the trade-off between average data-fit and model complexity. It is shown that inducing sparsity among the model parameters eliminates redundant interactions between compartments, equivalently revealing the optimal coupling structure between differential equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗