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At least 433 records · Page 24

Advancing Precipitation Estimation, Prediction, and Impact Studies

Precipitation exhibits a large variability over a wide range of space and time scales: from seconds to years and decades in time; from the millimeter scale of microphysical processes to regional and global scales in space. It also exhibits a large variability in magnitude and frequency, from low extremes resulting in prolonged droughts to high extremes resulting in devastating floods. Improving precipitation estimation and prediction has great societal impact for decision support in water resources management, infrastructure protection and design under accelerating climate extremes, quantifying water and energy balances at the regional to global scales, and predicting hurricanes, tornadoes, floods and droughts that affect the economy and security around the world (e.g., Blunden and Arndt, 2019). Yet, despite significant advances in observations and physical understanding, precipitation still remains one of the most challenging variables to model and predict at local, regional and global scales with significant implications for our ability to quantify water and energy cycle dynamics, inform decision making, and predict hydro-geomorphic hazards in response to precipitation extremes (e.g. Maggioni and Massari, 2019).

Efi Foufoula-Georgiou↗

Substantial differences in soil viral community composition within and among four Northern California habitats

Abstract Viruses contribute to food web dynamics and nutrient cycles in diverse ecosystems, yet the biogeographical patterns that underlie these viral dynamics are poorly understood, particularly in soil. Here, we identified trends in soil viral community composition in relation to habitat, moisture content, and physical distance. We generated 30 soil viromes from four distinct habitats (wetlands, grasslands, woodlands, and chaparral) by selectively capturing virus-sized particles prior to DNA extraction, and we recovered 3432 unique viral ‘species’ (dsDNA vOTUs). Viral communities differed significantly by soil moisture content, with viral richness generally higher in wet compared to dry soil habitats. However, vOTUs were rarely shared between viromes, including replicates <10 m apart, suggesting that soil viruses may not disperse well and that future soil viral community sampling strategies may need to account for extreme community differences over small spatial scales. Of the 19% of vOTUs detected in more than one virome, 93% were from the same habitat and site, suggesting greater viral community similarity in closer proximity and under similar environmental conditions. Within-habitat differences indicate that extensive sampling would be required for rigorous cross-habitat comparisons, and results highlight emerging paradigms of high viral activity in wet soils and soil viral community spatial heterogeneity.

Durham, Devyn M.↗

Proactive Operations and Investment Planning via Stochastic Optimization to Enhance Power Systems’ Extreme Weather Resilience

We present scalable stochastic optimization approaches for improving power systems’ resilience to extreme weather events. We consider both proactive redispatch and transmission line hardening as alternatives for mitigating expected load shed due to extreme weather, resulting in large-scale stochastic linear programs (LPs) and mixed-integer linear programs (MILPs). We solve these stochastic optimization problems with progressive hedging (PH), a parallel, scenario-based decomposition algorithm. Our computational experiments indicate that our proposed method for enhancing power system resilience can provide high-quality solutions efficiently. With up to 128 scenarios on a 2,000-bus network, the operations (redispatch) and investment (hardening) resilience problems can be solved in approximately 6 min and 2 h of wall-clock time, respectively. Additionally, we solve the investment problems with up to 512 scenarios, demonstrating that the approach scales very well with the number of scenarios. Moreover, the method produces high quality solutions that result in statistically significant reductions in expected load shed. Our proposed approach can be augmented to incorporate a variety of other operational and investment resilience strategies, or a combination of such strategies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Modeling and observations of North Atlantic cyclones: Implications for U.S. Offshore wind energy

To meet the Biden-Harris administration's goal of deploying 30 GW of offshore wind power by 2030 and 110 GW by 2050, expansion of wind energy into U.S. territorial waters prone to tropical cyclones (TCs) and extratropical cyclones (ETCs) is essential. This requires a deeper understanding of cyclone-related risks and the development of robust, resilient offshore wind energy systems. Here, this paper provides a comprehensive review of state-of-the-science measurement and modeling capabilities for studying TCs and ETCs, and their impacts across various spatial and temporal scales. We explore measurement capabilities for environments influenced by TCs and ETCs, including near-surface and vertical profiles of critical variables that characterize these cyclones. The capabilities and limitations of Earth system and mesoscale models are assessed for their effectiveness in capturing atmosphere–ocean–wave interactions that influence TC/ETC-induced risks under a changing climate. Additionally, we discuss microscale modeling capabilities designed to bridge scale gaps from the weather scale (a few kilometers) to the turbine scale (dozens to a few meters). We also review machine learning (ML)-based, data-driven models for simulating TC/ETC events at both weather and wind turbine scales. Special attention is given to extreme metocean conditions like extreme wind gusts, rapid wind direction changes, and high waves, which pose threats to offshore wind energy infrastructure. Finally, the paper outlines the research challenges and future directions needed to enhance the resilience and design of next-generation offshore wind turbines against extreme weather conditions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

On the influence of ENSO complexity on Pan-Pacific coastal wave extremes

Significance This study demonstrates how the main wave regimes in the Pacific, in particular related to tropical and extratropical storm activity, are activated by different El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections patterns. By combining these robust relationships with the latest theoretical advances in ENSO research, a mathematical model of wave energy modulation is derived. It allows a better representation of wave extremes over a range of time scales wider than previously possible with the previous baseline understanding of ENSO’s influence on coastal impacts. This paves the way for unprecedented seasonal to monthly forecasts of coastal hazards around the densely populated Pacific basin.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data-Driven Clustering and Classification of Outage Patterns with Insights into their Links to Extreme Events

At a global level extreme events have increased in both scale and impact. These events have the potential to affect the electrical grid infrastructure and cause a wide range of outages, which can lead to a disruption in daily patterns, cost millions of dollars and also the loss of life. Currently, to track these outage events there have been various approaches developed ranging from regional to national level quantifications for what defines an outage. However, this variation in methods can potentially lead to subjective decision-making and a lack of proper management in relation to the event. While previous work has made strides in determining spatio-temporal patterns, minimal attention has been given to the type and number of outages an area may be exposed to. The differences in incurred cost and the overall severity of an event between a transformer box malfunction and a hurricane are drastic, and by finding historical signals, we can allow for more efficient management, potentially saving lives and millions of dollars. Here, we leverage unsupervised machine learning techniques to delineate outage patterns among 22 counties within the United States and find that there are clear, segregated clusters (0.93 silhouette) of data which are related by event behavior and underlying cause. This finding will allow for energy stakeholders, policy makers, and researchers to gain a deeper understanding of the extent and severity of historic events and to better prepare for electrical grid infrastructure planning and management.

Koob, Benjamin [ORNL]↗

Statistical Treatment of Convolutional Neural Network Superresolution of Inland Surface Wind for Subgrid-Scale Variability Quantification

Abstract Machine learning models have been employed to perform either physics-free data-driven or hybrid dynamical downscaling of climate data. Most of these implementations operate over relatively small downscaling factors because of the challenge of recovering fine-scale information from coarse data. This limits their compatibility with many global climate model outputs, often available between ∼50- and 100-km resolution, to scales of interest such as cloud resolving or urban scales. This study systematically examines the capability of a type of superresolving convolutional neural network (SR-CNNs) to downscale surface wind speed data over land from different coarse resolutions (25-, 48-, and 100-km resolution) to 3 km. For each downscaling factor, we consider three convolutional neural network (CNN) configurations that generate superresolved predictions of fine-scale wind speed, which take between one and three input fields: coarse wind speed, fine-scale topography, and diurnal cycle. In addition to fine-scale wind speeds, probability density function parameters are generated through which sample wind speeds can be generated, accounting for the intrinsic stochasticity of wind speed. For assessing generalization to new data, CNN models are tested on regions with different topography and climate that are unseen during training. The evaluation of superresolved predictions focuses on subgrid-scale variability and the recovery of extremes. Models with coarse wind and fine topography as inputs exhibit the best performance when compared with other model configurations, operating across the same downscaling factor. Our diurnal cycle encoding results in lower out-of-sample generalizability when compared with other input configurations.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Atmospheric Variability Drives Anomalies in the Bering Sea Air–Sea Heat Exchange

Abstract High latitudes, including the Bering Sea, are experiencing unprecedented rates of change. Long-term Bering Sea warming trends have been identified, and marine heatwaves (MHWs), event-scale elevated sea surface temperature (SST) extremes, have also increased in frequency and longevity in recent years. Recent work has shown that variability in air–sea coupling plays a dominant role in driving Bering Sea upper-ocean thermal variability and that surface forcing has driven an increase in the occurrence of positive ocean temperature anomalies since 2010. In this work, we characterize the drivers of the anomalous surface air–sea heat fluxes in the Bering Sea over the period 2010–22 using ERA5 fields. We show that the surface turbulent heat flux dominates the net surface heat flux variability from September to April and is primarily a result of near-surface air temperature and specific humidity anomalies. The airmass anomalies that account for the majority of the turbulent heat flux variability are a function of wind direction, with southerly (northerly) wind advecting anomalously warm (cool), moist (dry) air over the Bering Sea, resulting in positive (negative) surface turbulent flux anomalies. During the remaining months of the year, anomalies in the surface radiative fluxes account for the majority of the net surface heat flux variability and are a result of anomalous cloud coverage, anomalous lower-tropospheric virtual temperature, and sea ice coverage variability. Our results indicate that atmospheric variability drives much of the Bering Sea upper-ocean temperature variability through the mediation of the surface heat fluxes during the analysis period. Significance Statement A long-term ocean warming trend and a recent increase in marine heatwaves in the Bering Sea have been identified. Previous work showed that anomalies in the exchange of heat between the ocean and the atmosphere were the primary driver of Bering Sea temperature variability, but the processes responsible for the heat exchange anomalies were unknown. In this work, we show that the atmosphere is the primary driver of anomalies in the Bering Sea air–sea heat exchange and therefore plays an important role in altering the thermal state of the Bering Sea. Our results highlight the importance of understanding more about how the ocean and the atmosphere interact at high latitudes and how this relationship will be affected by future climate change.

Hayden, Emily E. [a College of Earth, Ocean, and A↗

Coastal Community Resiliency Enhancement Using Marine Hydrokinetic (MHK) Resources and Networked Microgrids

Enormous challenges are inherent in the operation of modern distribution grids. In particular, distribution feeders can be severely compromised under extreme conditions such as large-scale weather events (e.g., hurricanes, floods, and other types of natural disasters). To combat this problem, they turn to local energy support from distributed energy resources, such as solar and wind, marine hydrolinetic (MHK), and other types of energy. In this report, we investigate the actual characteristics of MHK resources to enhance coastal community resiliency. Two typical types of MHK resources (i.e., wave and tidal resources) illustrate the coastal resilience enhancement framework. By identifying their operational characteristics, such as target time-scales and potential power generation variations, we detail a holistic coastal community resiliency enhancement framework that integrates both optimization and control efforts. The optimization problem is formulated to significantly minimize the power outage time at the critical infrastructures in coastal communities by implementing multiple autonomous and dynamic microgrids around MHK resources. Therefore, during severe power outages caused by natural disasters (e.g., floods, hurricanes), the coastal community load profiles can be satisfied using local MHK resources in each microgrid with limited or no power support from upstream power grids.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Multiplication of freestanding III-V semiconductor membranes from a single wafer by alternating growth with amorphous graphene interlayer

Freestanding single-crystalline III-V compound semiconductors are important building blocks for functional devices due to their high electron mobilities, a wide range of bandgaps, and excellent optoelectronic properties. Despite efforts to produce such membranes by detaching epitaxial layers from donor wafers, current methods suffer from either slow processes or poor material quality. Here, we demonstrate a technique to grow and harvest multiple epitaxial membranes with extremely high throughput at the wafer scale. For this, a process to directly grow amorphous graphene on III-V substrates in metal-organic chemical vapor deposition reactors is developed, which enables an advanced remote epitaxy scheme comprised of multiple alternating layers of amorphous graphene and III-V epitaxial layers that can be formed by a single epitaxy run. Each epilayer in the multi-stack structure is then harvested by layer-by-layer peeling, producing multiple freestanding membranes with unprecedented throughput from a single wafer. Because amorphous graphene provides a weak van der Waals interface that allows peeling at the interface without damaging the epilayer or the substrate, wafers can be reused for subsequent membrane production. Therefore, this work represents a meaningful step toward high-throughput and low-cost production of single-crystal membranes that can be heterointegrated.

Han, Ne Myo↗

Plasmon and Photon Excitations in Two-Dimensional and Layered Materials

Light-matter interactions in layered and two-dimensional materials allows one to achieve extreme optical confinement approaching the atomic scale, enabling exploration of new materials phenomena. Layered narrow bandgap and zero bandgap materials, such as black phosphorus and graphene, support unusual and intriguing quantum-confined electronic states in thin layers and surface electronic states. The incomplete screening of applied electrostatic fields in ultrathin materials permits the exploration of light-matter interactions at high electric fields and over a wide range of carrier densities in a single sample, facilitating exploration of the optical and plasmonic properties of ultrathin and layered materials under electrochemical potential control. We have made advances in understanding the nature of optical interband and intraband plasmon excitations in layered materials such as graphene, black phosphorus, molybdenum diselenide, and molybdenum ditelluride.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

Numerical Investigation of Fluid Flow and Space Charge in Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC) Detectors

Overview This project focused on developing a high-fidelity numerical framework to simulate the multiphysics environment within Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC) detectors. The primary objective was to characterize the complex interplay between ion transport, background fluid dynamics, and electric field distortions—a critical factor for the calibration and sensitivity of next-generation High Energy Physics experiments, such as DUNE. Technical Achievements The research successfully yielded a hybrid numerical space-charge solver utilizing a Cell-Centered Finite Volume Method (FVM) for ion transport coupled with a Finite Element Method (FEM) for electric potential. Key accomplishments include: • Verification & Validation: The 3-D solver was rigorously verified against 1-D analytical solutions, demonstrating high numerical accuracy in predicting space-charge-induced field deviations. • Field Distortion Analysis: 3D simulations revealed that space charge effects introduce significant non-uniformities in the electric field. Critically, the research identified that background LAr flow velocities, when comparable to ion drift velocities, markedly exacerbate these distortions. • Technology Transfer: The resulting source code and comprehensive user manuals were successfully transferred to collaborators at Fermilab, providing a portable computational tool for the broader scientific community. Challenges and Future Directions While the space-charge solver achieved all performance metrics, the integrated fluid dynamics modeling encountered convergence challenges stemming from the extreme 200-fold disparity in length scales between the detector's 37 mm inlet pipes and the 8-meter global domain. To address this, the project has identified a clear technical pivot toward Hierarchical Geometric Adaptive Mesh Refinement (HG-AMR). By implementing an h-type refinement strategy with hanging nodes, future iterations of this solver will be capable of resolving localized high-gradient inlet flows without the prohibitive computational costs of regular grids. This advancement, combined with data-driven uncertainty quantification based on MicroBooNE-style calibration, will enable the precise modeling of detector responses in large-scale cryogenic environments where direct measurement remains difficult. Impact The computational tools developed under this award provide a foundation for enhancing the energy resolution and spatial reconstruction of noble liquid detectors. By bridging the gap between theoretical fluid dynamics and experimental field calibration, this work supports the DOE’s mission to advance the frontiers of neutrino physics and dark matter detection.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Radiation Damage in Materials—Helium Effects

Despite its scarcity in terrestrial life, helium effects on microstructure evolution and thermo-mechanical properties can have a significant impact on the operation and lifetime of applications, including: advanced structural steels in fast fission reactors, plasma facing and structural materials in fusion devices, spallation neutron target designs, energetic alpha emissions in actinides, helium precipitation in tritium-containing materials, and nuclear waste materials. The small size of a helium atom combined with its near insolubility in almost every solid makes the helium–solid interaction extremely complex over multiple length and time scales. This Special Issue, “Radiation Damage in Materials—Helium Effects”, contains review articles and full-length papers on new irradiation material research activities and novel material ideas using experimental and/or modeling approaches. These studies elucidate the interactions of helium with various extreme environments and tailored nanostructures, as well as their impact on microstructural evolution and material properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Cooperation in Transmission Expansion Planning: Enhancing Grid Reliability and Efficiency Under a Changing Climate

Electricity grids are challenged to maintain reliability during more intense and frequent extreme weather events due to climate change. This challenge is exacerbated by multi-sector electrification and power sector decarbonization through increased reliance on variable renewable energy, which necessitates the expansion of transmission infrastructure. However, transmission expansion planning is often complicated by intertwined planning authorities and jurisdictions, and allocation of large capital investment needs. These factors cause authorities to manage transmission investments individually (i.e., only/mostly intraregional planning), which can lead to suboptimal transmission networks. This study investigates the potential benefits of cooperative transmission expansion planning (i.e., both intraregional and interregional planning that optimizes transmission investments across the entire physical system). Using sectoral and economic optimization, and machine learning models, it analyzes the impact of different levels of cooperation among transmission planning regions within U.S. Western Interconnection in 2019 and 2059 via an iterative investment process. Furthermore, it examines the effects of future climate change on transmission cooperation by simulating historical heat waves from 2019 under conditions of 2059. The results indicate that cooperative transmission planning leads to lower wholesale electricity prices, decreased energy outages, and reduced greenhouse gas emissions. However, the advantages of collaboration diminish during widespread heat waves, despite remaining beneficial especially for regions like California Independent System Operator with substantial solar installations. The study underscores the importance of transmission cooperation in reducing costs and enhancing reliability, emphasizing the need for strategic investments in storage to address challenges posed by future extreme weather events with varying spatial scales.

Capacity Expansion Model↗

Tornadoes and downbursts in the context of generalized planetary scales

In order to cover a wide range of horizontal dimensions of airflow, the paper proposes a series of five scales, maso, meso, miso (to be read as my-so), moso and muso arranged in the order of the vowels, A, E, I, O, U. The dimensions decrease by two orders of magnitude per scale, beginning with the planet's equator length chosen to be the maximum dimension of masoscale for each planet. Mesoscale highs and lows were described on the basis of mesoanalyses, while sub-mesoscale disturbances were depicted by cataloging over 20,000 photographs of wind effects taken from low-flying aircraft during the past 15 years. Various motion thus classified into these scales led to a conclusion that extreme winds induced by thunderstorms are associated with misoscale and mososcale airflow spawned by the parent, mesoscale disturbances.

Fujita, T. T.↗

Particle acceleration parallel and perpendicular to the magnetic field observed by DE-2

Observations by the instrument payload on DE-2 have been used to study the plasma and electrodynamic properties of the ionosphere when field-aligned currents approaching 100 microA/sq m flow at about 900-km altitude. In such a situation, it is found that the thermal ions may account for a substantial fraction of the current carriers and that the bulk of the energetic electron population has undergone a net acceleration of a few hundred electron volts. Large amplitude electrostatic waves that have a maximum near 100 Hz and an energetic ion population that shows evidence for both parallel and perpendicular acceleration to about 30 eV also accompany such events. The horizontal thermal ion drift (electric field) that accompanies these plasma phenomena has extremely large gradients over small spatial scales. Such a signature is consistent with a requirement for a large field-aligned current, and a limit to the available field-aligned potential difference that may be applied to the plasma.

Heelis, R. A.↗

Numerical Simulation of Two Phase Flows

Two phase flows can be found in broad situations in nature, biology, and industry devices and can involve diverse and complex mechanisms. While the physical models may be specific for certain situations, the mathematical formulation and numerical treatment for solving the governing equations can be general. Hence, we will require information concerning each individual phase as needed in a single phase. but also the interactions between them. These interaction terms, however, pose additional numerical challenges because they are beyond the basis that we use to construct modern numerical schemes, namely the hyperbolicity of equations. Moreover, due to disparate differences in time scales, fluid compressibility and nonlinearity become acute, further complicating the numerical procedures. In this paper, we will show the ideas and procedure how the AUSM-family schemes are extended for solving two phase flows problems. Specifically, both phases are assumed in thermodynamic equilibrium, namely, the time scales involved in phase interactions are extremely short in comparison with those in fluid speeds and pressure fluctuations. Details of the numerical formulation and issues involved are discussed and the effectiveness of the method are demonstrated for several industrial examples.

Liou, Meng-Sing↗