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At least 433 records · Page 24

Multiplexing Technology for Acoustic Emission Monitoring of Aerospace Vehicles

The initiation and propagation of damage mechanisms such as cracks and delaminations generate acoustic waves, which propagate through a structure. These waves can be detected and analyzed to provide the location and severity of damage as part of a structural health monitoring (SHM) system. This methodology of damage detection is commonly known as acoustic emission (AE) monitoring, and is widely used on a variety of applications on civil structures. AE has been widely considered for SHM of aerospace vehicles. Numerous successful ground and flight test demonstrations have been performed, which show the viability of the technology for damage monitoring in aerospace structures. However, one significant current limitation for application of AE techniques on aerospace vehicles is the large size, mass, and power requirements for the necessary monitoring instrumentation. To address this issue, a prototype multiplexing approach has been developed and demonstrated in this study, which reduces the amount of AE monitoring instrumentation required. Typical time division multiplexing techniques that are commonly used to monitor strain, pressure and temperature sensors are not applicable to AE monitoring because of the asynchronous and widely varying rates of AE signal occurrence. Thus, an event based multiplexing technique was developed. In the initial prototype circuit, inputs from eight sensors in a linear array were multiplexed into two data acquisition channels. The multiplexer rapidly switches, in less than one microsecond, allowing the signals from two sensors to be acquired by a digitizer. The two acquired signals are from the sensors on either side of the trigger sensor. This enables the capture of the first arrival of the waves, which cannot be accomplished with the signal from the trigger sensor. The propagation delay to the slightly more distant neighboring sensors makes this possible. The arrival time from this first arrival provides a more accurate source location determination. The multiplexer also identifies which channels are acquired by encoding TTL logic pulses onto the latter portion of the signals. This prototype system was demonstrated using pencil lead break (Hsu-Neilsen) sources on an aluminum plate. It performed as designed providing rapid low noise trigger based switching with encoded channel identification. this multiplexing approach is not limited to linear arrays, but can be easily extended to monitor sensors in planar ot three dimensional arrays. A 32 channel multiplexing system is under development that will allow arbitrary sensor placement. Another benefit of this multiplexing system is the reduction in the expense of data acquisition hardware. In addition, the reduced weight and power requirements are of extreme importance for proposed AE systems on aerospace vehicles.

Prosser, William↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-17243-DND

This presentation captures ERA Project's effort in using integrated cost-schedule-risk analysis tool, identifying and capturing explicit relationships between program funds, schedule, and discrete risks. The project team merged a myriad of cost and schedule data for timely, objective, uncertainty analysis of the ITD's budget and schedule. The project team conducted detailed schedule uncertainty analysis showing schedule activities and how their interrelationships were impacted, representing an impressive advance beyond routine Gantt charts. Furthermore, the ERA Project collected discrete risk events including their impacts to costs and/or schedule and interwove these risks into cost and schedule logic networks, providing the foundation to conduct cost and schedule analyses. The team integrated this data into the analysis model, providing probabilistic results that were then used by the ERA Project's senior management for decision-making purposes. The ERA Project management team, through technical and pathfinder expertise in integrating cost, schedule, risk, and technical content, consistently provided risk-informed recommendations to Implementing Centers and ISRP senior management which ultimately ensured the successful ARMD Key Decision Point (KDP) review of the ERA Phase 2 ITD Portfolio and increased the likelihood of achieving technical objectives within cost and schedule constraints.

Gaudy M Bezos-O'Connor↗

Polyvinyl Alcohol and Medium Density Polyethylene Composite Materials for Neutron Radiation Shielding

Manned spacecraft venturing beyond the Earth’s Van Allen Belts will be subjected to high levels of radiation from both energetic particles emanating from the sun and from galactic atomic events, such as supernovae. The metal shell of a spacecraft offers some protection from gamma radiation and high energy particles originating from both the sun and cosmic sources. The interaction of these high energy particles and radiation with the spacecraft hull create secondary radiation and neutrons, additional hazards for astronauts and electronic systems. Shielding of neutrons is the most challenging of the high energy radiation, since neutrons have zero charge and are least affected by electrical fields, magnetic fields, and atomic forces. Previous studies showed that polyethylene is an effective neutron shielding material, due to its high hydrogen content. High energy neutrons are slowed to thermal neutrons through multiple collisions with the hydrogen atoms, increasing the effectiveness of neutron capture by boron-10 atoms. This study discusses the fabrication and testing of polyvinyl alcohol (PVOH) samples as a neutron shielding material, with comparison to medium density polyethylene (MDPE) composite samples to be used for neutron shielding for spacecraft. PVOH, an aqueous polymer, was chosen for hydrogen content and for enabling the use of organic reinforcement such as cellulose for secondary structural composites. OLTARIS (On-Line Tool for the Assessment of Radiation in Space) was used for radiation shielding simulation and compared with experimental data. Modeling indicates that the most effective shielding from radiation was in an aluminum layer backed by a polymer layer, either MDPE or PVOH. Cross-linked PVOH was also included in the OLTARIS modeling. All 3 polymer cases showed shielding improvement over aluminum alone, with similar dose equivalent reduction for galactic cosmic radiation(GCR)and for radiation from a solar particle event (SPE). Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) Spectroscopy was used to confirm the cross-linking in the PVOH sample and to determine the uniformity through the thickness. PVOH, cross-linked PVOH, and MDPE samples were tested for neutron shielding effectiveness using a 1 curie Americium-Beryllium neutron source. Test results indicated the most shielding in the cross-linked PVOH, followed by the pristine PVOH, and MDPE. Neutron testing suggests that polyvinyl alcohol is a good alternative to polyethylene for neutron shielding. The neutron shielding materials, PVOH and cross-linked PVOH developed under this research will enable the safe operation of spacecraft beyond the Earth’s protective Van Allen Radiation Belts. It will be crucial for NASA’s manned missions to the Moon or Mars to protect the health of astronauts and equipment from the harmful effects of excessive radiation.

neutron, shielding, radiation, polyvinyl alcohol, ↗

LEGEND, a LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris Model

LEGEND (LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris model) is a three-dimensional orbital debris evolutionary model that is capable of simulating the historical and future debris populations in the near-Earth environment. The historical component in LEGEND adopts a deterministic approach to mimic the known historical populations. Launched rocket bodies, spacecraft, and mission-related debris (rings, bolts, etc.) are added to the simulated environment. Known historical breakup events are reproduced, and fragments down to 1 mm in size are created. The LEGEND future projection component adopts a Monte Carlo approach and uses an innovative pair-wise collision probability evaluation algorithm to simulate the future breakups and the growth of the debris populations. This algorithm is based on a new "random sampling in time" approach that preserves characteristics of the traditional approach and captures the rapidly changing nature of the orbital debris environment. LEGEND is a Fortran 90-based numerical simulation program. It operates in a UNIX/Linux environment.

Liou, Jer Chyi↗

An Evaluation of Teleconnections Over the United States in an Ensemble of AMIP Simulations with the MERRA-2 Configuration of the GEOS Atmospheric Model

The atmospheric general circulation model that is used in NASA's Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2) is evaluated with respect to the relationship between large-scale teleconnection patterns and daily temperature and precipitation over the United States (US) using a ten-member ensemble of simulations, referred to as M2AMIP. A focus is placed on four teleconnection patterns that are known to influence weather and climate in the US: El Nino Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the Pacific-North American Pattern. The monthly and seasonal indices associated with the patterns are correlated with daily temperature and precipitation statistics including: (i) monthly mean 2 m temperature and precipitation, (ii) the frequency of extreme temperature events at the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles, and (iii) the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events classified at the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles.Correlations obtained with M2AMIP data and thus the strength of teleconnections in the free-running model are evaluated through comparison against corresponding correlations computed from observations and from MERRA-2. Overall, the strongest teleconnections in all datasets occur during the winter and coincide with the largest agreement between the observations, MERRA-2, and M2AMIP. When M2AMIP does capture the correlation seen in observations, there is a tendency for the spatial extent to be exaggerated. The weakest agreement between the data sources, for all teleconnection patterns, is in the correlation with extreme precipitation; however there are discrepancies between the datasets in the number of days with at least 1 mm of precipitation: M2AMIP has too few days with precipitation in the Northwest and the Northern Great Plains and too many days in the Northeast. In JJA, M2AMIP has too few days with precipitation in the western two-thirds of the country and too many days with precipitation along the east coast.

JJA↗

Photon Sieve Design and Fabrication for Imaging Characteristics Using UAV Flight

The Photon Sieve (PS) team at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) began receiving support for the development and characterization of PS devices through the NASA Internal Research & Development Program (IRAD) in 2015. The project involves ascertaining the imaging characteristics of various PS devices. These devices hold the potential to significantly reduce mission costs and improve imaging quality by replacing traditional reflector telescopes. The photon sieve essentially acts as a lens to diffract light to a concentrated point on the focal plane like a Fresnel Zone Plate (FZP). PS’s have the potential to focus light to a very small spot which is not limited by the width of the outermost zone as for the FZP and offers a promising solution for high resolution imaging. In the fields of astronomy, remote sensing, and other applications that require imaging of distant objects both on the ground and in the sky, it is often necessary to perform post-process filtering in order to separate noise signals that arise from multiple scattering events near the collection optic. The PS exhibits a novel filtering technique that rejects the unwanted noise without the need for time consuming post processing of the images. This project leverages key Langley resources to design, manufacture, and characterize a series of photon sieve specimens. After a prototype was developed and characterized in the Langley ISO5 optical cleanroom and laboratory, outside testing was conducted via the capture of images of the moon by using a telescopic setup. This next goal of the project is to design and develop a telescope and image capture system as a drone-based instrument payload. The vehicle utilized for the initial demonstration was a NASA hive model 1200 XE-8 research Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV), capable of handling a 20-pound maximum payload with a 25-minute flight time. This NASA Technical Memorandum (NASA-TM) introduces preliminary results obtained using a PS-based imaging system on the UAV. The next version of the telescope structure will be designed around diffractive optical components and commercially available camera electronics to create a lightweight payload.

Kim, Hyun Jung↗

The Diurnal Variation of Dust and Water Ice Aerosol Optical Depth at Jezero Crater Observed By MEDA/TIRS Over A Full Martian Year

The Thermal InfraRed Sensor (TIRS) on the Perseverance rover has provided nearly two full Mars years of systematic monitoring of the total aerosol optical depth above Jezero Crater. These observations span a wide range of timescales, capturing seasonal patterns, diurnal variations, and minute-to-minute fluctuations in aerosol loading. By combining TIRS retrievals with orbital observations, the relative contributions of dust and water ice aerosols can be estimated, revealing their different seasonal and diurnal behaviors. The TIRS record shows distinct periods of dust storm activity, including strong regional storms during the perihelion season as well as short lived but intense dust events outside the typical dust storm season. Water ice clouds exhibit pronounced seasonal and diurnal variability, with peak activity occurring during the aphelion season but with a presence throughout the year. The diurnal variation of clouds differs significantly between the aphelion and perihelion seasons, with clouds persisting throughout the night during the aphelion season, while largely absent outside of specific periods after sunrise and sunset during the perihelion season. These results provide new insights into the complex behavior of aerosols at Jezero Crater and their connections to atmospheric dynamics and the Martian dust and water cycles.

Michael D Smith↗

The Automated Instrumentation and Monitoring System (AIMS) reference manual

Whether a researcher is designing the 'next parallel programming paradigm,' another 'scalable multiprocessor' or investigating resource allocation algorithms for multiprocessors, a facility that enables parallel program execution to be captured and displayed is invaluable. Careful analysis of execution traces can help computer designers and software architects to uncover system behavior and to take advantage of specific application characteristics and hardware features. A software tool kit that facilitates performance evaluation of parallel applications on multiprocessors is described. The Automated Instrumentation and Monitoring System (AIMS) has four major software components: a source code instrumentor which automatically inserts active event recorders into the program's source code before compilation; a run time performance-monitoring library, which collects performance data; a trace file animation and analysis tool kit which reconstructs program execution from the trace file; and a trace post-processor which compensate for data collection overhead. Besides being used as prototype for developing new techniques for instrumenting, monitoring, and visualizing parallel program execution, AIMS is also being incorporated into the run-time environments of various hardware test beds to evaluate their impact on user productivity. Currently, AIMS instrumentors accept FORTRAN and C parallel programs written for Intel's NX operating system on the iPSC family of multi computers. A run-time performance-monitoring library for the iPSC/860 is included in this release. We plan to release monitors for other platforms (such as PVM and TMC's CM-5) in the near future. Performance data collected can be graphically displayed on workstations (e.g. Sun Sparc and SGI) supporting X-Windows (in particular, Xl IR5, Motif 1.1.3).

Yan, Jerry↗

Numerical Simulation of the 9-10 June 1972 Black Hills Storm Using CSU RAMS

Strong easterly flow of low-level moist air over the eastern slopes of the Black Hills on 9-10 June 1972 generated a storm system that produced a flash flood, devastating the area. Based on observations from this storm event, and also from the similar Big Thompson 1976 storm event, conceptual models have been developed to explain the unusually high precipitation efficiency. In this study, the Black Hills storm is simulated using the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System. Simulations with homogeneous and inhomogeneous initializations and different grid structures are presented. The conceptual models of storm structure proposed by previous studies are examined in light of the present simulations. Both homogeneous and inhomogeneous initialization results capture the intense nature of the storm, but the inhomogeneous simulation produced a precipitation pattern closer to the observed pattern. The simulations point to stationary tilted updrafts, with precipitation falling out to the rear as the preferred storm structure. Experiments with different grid structures point to the importance of removing the lateral boundaries far from the region of activity. Overall, simulation performance in capturing the observed behavior of the storm system was enhanced by use of inhomogeneous initialization.

Nair, U. S.↗

Precipitation Characteristics in Tropical Africa Using Satellite and In-Situ Observations

Tropical Africa receives nearly all its precipitation as a result of convection. The characteristics of rain-producing systems in this region, despite their crucial role in regional and global circulation, have not been well-understood. This is mainly due to the lack of in situ observations. Here, we have used precipitation records from the Trans-African Hydro-Meteorological Observatory (TAHMO) to improve our knowledge about the rainfall systems in the region, and to validate the recently-released IMERG precipitation product. The high temporal resolution of the gauge data has allowed us to identify three classes of rain events based on their duration and intensity. The contribution of each class to the total rainfall and the favorable surface atmospheric conditions for each class have been examined. As IMERG aims to continue the legacy of its predecessor, TMPA, and provide higher resolution data, continent-wide comparisons are made between these two products. IMERG, due to its improved temporal resolution, shows some advantages over TMPA in capturing the diurnal cycle and propagation of the meso-scale convective systems. However, the performance of the two satellite-based products varies by season, region and the evaluation statistics. The results of this study serve as a basis for our ongoing work on the impacts of biomass burning on precipitation processes in Africa.

TMPA↗

Quantifying the Storm Time Thermospheric Neutral Density Variations Using Model and Observations

Accurate determination of thermospheric neutral density holds crucial importance for satellited rag calculations. The problem is twofold and involves the correct estimation of the quiet time climatology and storm time variations. In this work, neutral density estimations from two empirical and threephysics based models of the ionosphere thermosphere are compared with the neutral densities along the Challenging MicroSatellite Payload satellite track for six geomagnetic storms. Storm time variations are extracted from neutral density by (1) subtracting the mean difference between model and observation (bias),(2) setting climatological variations to zero, and (3) multiplying model data with the quiet time ratio between the model and observation. Several metrics are employed to evaluate the model performances. We find that the removal of bias or climatology reveals actual performance of the model in simulating the storm time variations. When bias is removed, depending on event and model, storm time errors in neutral density can decrease by an amount of 113% or can increase by an amount of 12% with respect to error in models with quiet time bias. It is shown that using only average and maximum values of neutral density to determine the model performances can be misleading since a model can estimate the averages fairly well but may not capture the maximum value or vice versa. Since each of the metrics used for determining model performances provides different aspects of the error, among these, we suggest employing mean absolute error, prediction efficiency, and normalized root mean square error together as a standard set ofmetrics for the neutral density.

Eyiguler, E. Ceren Kalafatoglu↗

Mars Sample Return Mars Ascent Vehicle Separation Analysis Utilizing the CLVTOPS Toolchain

A key element of the joint NASA and European Space Agency (ESA) Mars Sample Return (MSR) Campaign is the Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV), which is being developed primarily by NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), in association with NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and Langley Research Center (LaRC). The MAV is a Mars-launched rocket that is responsible for transporting soil samples collected by the Perseverance rover from the Martian surface into orbit, where they will be captured by ESA's Earth Return Orbiter (ERO) for the return journey to Earth. The MAV design concept developed during the MAV Systems Requirement Cycle (SRC) and Preliminary Design Cycle (PDC) consisted of a two-solid-stage configuration, where the second stage is completely unguided in order to reduce vehicle and overall mission mass. The unguided second stage design presents technical challenges for the stage separation event, as the second stage trajectory and the payload’s ability to rendezvous with the ERO is extremely sensitive to disturbances during vehicle staging. The MSFC-developed CLVTOPS multibody dynamics toolchain was utilized to quickly assess multiple stage separation hardware options and to optimize the separation Concept of Operations (ConOps) in order to ensure successful near-field stage separation performance and maximize the orbital accuracy of the payload. This paper will describe how the CLVTOPS toolchain was used to assess the MAV stage separation event and help inform and optimize the MAV design and ConOps.

MSR↗

Rockets and People

Much has been written in the West on the history of the Soviet space program but few Westerners have read direct first-hand accounts of the men and women who were behind the many Russian accomplishments in exploring space.The memoirs of Academician Boris Chertok, translated from the original Russian, fills that gap.Chertok began his career as an electrician in 1930 at an aviation factory near Moscow.Twenty-seven years later, he became deputy to the founding figure of the Soviet space program, the mysterious Chief Designer Sergey Korolev. Chertok s sixty-year-long career and the many successes and failures of the Soviet space program constitute the core of his memoirs, Rockets and People. These writings are spread over four volumes. This is volume I. Academician Chertok not only describes and remembers, but also elicits and extracts profound insights from an epic story about a society s quest to explore the cosmos. In Volume 1, Chertok describes his early years as an engineer and ends with the mission to Germany after the end of World War II when the Soviets captured Nazi missile technology and expertise. Volume 2 takes up the story with the development of the world s first intercontinental ballistic missile ICBM) and ends with the launch of Sputnik and the early Moon probes. In Volume 3, Chertok recollects the great successes of the Soviet space program in the 1960s including the launch of the world s first space voyager Yuriy Gagarin as well as many events connected with the Cold War. Finally, in Volume 4, Chertok meditates at length on the massive Soviet lunar project designed to beat the Americans to the Moon in the 1960s, ending with his remembrances of the Energiya-Buran project.

Chertok, Boris E↗

Detecting Risk and Anomalies in Airplane Dynamics Through Entropic Analysis of Time Series Data

Despite recent efforts to move away from traditional threshold exceedance detection methods for aircraft state monitoring, modern aircraft still rely on safety thresholds to communicate to pilots the identification of an anomaly in the aircraft when a threshold is surpassed. Current anomaly detection methods mainly depend on uninterpretable machine learning models to learn complex patterns and relationships contained in the time series data of aircraft. Although these methods are capable of identifying known anomalies, their deficiency in interpretability presents a challenge when translating them to different aircraft. To overcome this deficiency, entropic analysis of aircraft dynamics seeks to characterize the complexity, or lack thereof, of the aircraft dynamics prior to the development of a risk scenario. This complexity characterization provides a more straightforward summary of state changes in the dynamics of flight variables. To build a foundation for entropic analysis, we analyzed the complexity of unstable approaches, an anomalous event present in many of today’s aviation accidents. The analysis revealed a statistically significant difference in the complexity distribution of flight variables under a stable approach versus an unstable approach. These differences in complexity were especially notable minutes before an approach was identified as unstable. Moreover, the multiscale entropic analysis revealed the presence of signal complexity at multiple time scales across multiple time windows before landing. By capturing state changes and corrections in the aircraft dynamics using entropy, advanced, yet still interpretable, sensor systems based on entropic frameworks from this study can be constructed in the future using classical machine learning approaches.

Risk detection↗

Going Beyond Hooked Participants: The Nibble- and-Drop Framework for Classifying Citizen Science Participation

Many citizen science (CS) programs aim to grow and sustain a pool of enthusiastic participants who consistently contribute their efforts to a specific scientific endeavor. Consequently, much research has explored CS participants’ motivations and their relationship to participant recruitment and retention. However, much of this research has focused on actively participating citizen scientists. If researchers want to elucidate the relationship between participant factors (such as demographics and motivations) and participant retention, it is necessary to develop a more comprehensive picture of the different degrees of participation in CS. This paper presents a framework for classifying participation throughout the participant’s engagement in a CS project/program. We suggest a CS participation model that captures the dynamic nature of participation across an arc of volunteering. Called the Nibble-and-Drop Framework, the model describes multiple exit points and stages of contribution typical of participation in a CS program. Applying the framework to the NASA GLOBE Observer (GO) CS program, we found that it captured the dynamics of participation in a global-scale, mobile, app-based, contributory style CS project. The framework guided our analysis of how different participant factors correlate with degrees of participation. We found that participants were motivated to initially participate because they wanted to contribute to NASA research and science. Participants who dropped out of the program at various points often initially engaged through specific collection events and did not feel the need to continue contributing beyond the event; other drop-outs doubted whether their contributions were meaningful, showing again the need to ensure that participants understand the value of their engagement in a CS project.

Heather Fischer↗

Emergency Response Virtual Environment for Safe Schools

An intelligent emergency response virtual environment (ERVE) that provides emergency first responders, response planners, and managers with situational awareness as well as training and support for safe schools is presented. ERVE incorporates an intelligent agent facility for guiding and assisting the user in the context of the emergency response operations. Response information folders capture key information about the school. The system enables interactive 3D visualization of schools and academic campuses, including the terrain and the buildings' exteriors and interiors in an easy to use Web..based interface. ERVE incorporates live camera and sensors feeds and can be integrated with other simulations such as chemical plume simulation. The system is integrated with a Geographical Information System (GIS) to enable situational awareness of emergency events and assessment of their effect on schools in a geographic area. ERVE can also be integrated with emergency text messaging notification systems. Using ERVE, it is now possible to address safe schools' emergency management needs with a scaleable, seamlessly integrated and fully interactive intelligent and visually compelling solution.

Wasfy, Ayman↗

Cross-Scale Observational Signatures of Magnetic Reconnection

Magnetic reconnection is a significant mechanism for energy release across many astrophysical applications. In the solar atmosphere, reconnection is considered a primary contributor of flare evolution and coronal heating. Directly observing reconnection occurring in the solar atmosphere, however, is not trivial considering that the scale size of the diffusion region is magnitudes smaller than the observational capabilities of current instrumentation, and coronal magnetic field measurements are not currently sufficient to capture the process. Meanwhile, reconnection occurring in the Earth's magnetosphere transfers energy from the solar wind through a comparable process, although on vastly different scales. Magnetospheric measurements are made in situ rather than remotely; ergo, comparison of observations between the two regimes allows for potentially significant insight into reconnection as a stochastic and possibly turbulent process. We will present a set of observations from long-duration solar events and compare them to in situ measurements from the magnetosphere.

Savage, Sabrina↗

Forecasting Lightning Threat using Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations

Two new approaches are proposed and developed for making time and space dependent, quantitative short-term forecasts of lightning threat, and a blend of these approaches is devised that capitalizes on the strengths of each. The new methods are distinctive in that they are based entirely on the ice-phase hydrometeor fields generated by regional cloud-resolving numerical simulations, such as those produced by the WRF model. These methods are justified by established observational evidence linking aspects of the precipitating ice hydrometeor fields to total flash rates. The methods are straightforward and easy to implement, and offer an effective near-term alternative to the incorporation of complex and costly cloud electrification schemes into numerical models. One method is based on upward fluxes of precipitating ice hydrometeors in the mixed phase region at the-15 C level, while the second method is based on the vertically integrated amounts of ice hydrometeors in each model grid column. Each method can be calibrated by comparing domain-wide statistics of the peak values of simulated flash rate proxy fields against domain-wide peak total lightning flash rate density data from observations. Tests show that the first method is able to capture much of the temporal variability of the lightning threat, while the second method does a better job of depicting the areal coverage of the threat. Our blended solution is designed to retain most of the temporal sensitivity of the first method, while adding the improved spatial coverage of the second. Exploratory tests for selected North Alabama cases show that, because WRF can distinguish the general character of most convective events, our methods show promise as a means of generating quantitatively realistic fields of lightning threat. However, because the models tend to have more difficulty in predicting the instantaneous placement of storms, forecasts of the detailed location of the lightning threat based on single simulations can be in error. Although these model shortcomings presently limit the precision of lightning threat forecasts from individual runs of current generation models,the techniques proposed herein should continue to be applicable as newer and more accurate physically-based model versions, physical parameterizations, initialization techniques and ensembles of forecasts become available.

McCaul, Eugene W., Jr.↗