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At least 433 records · Page 24

Voltage positioning using co-optimization of controllable grid assets in radial networks

With increasing penetration of solar PV, some distribution feeders are experiencing highly variable net-load flows and even reverse flows. To optimize distribution systems under such conditions, the scheduling of mechanical devices, such as OLTCs and capacitor banks, needs to take into account forecasted solar PV and actual grid conditions. However, these legacy switching assets are operated on a daily or hourly timescale, due to the wear and tear associated with mechanical switching, which makes them unsuitable for real-time control. Therefore, there is a natural timescale- separation between these slower mechanical assets and the responsive nature of inverter-based resources. In this paper, we present a network admissible convex formulation for holistically scheduling controllable grid assets to position voltage optimally against solar PV. An optimal hourly schedule is presented that utilizes mechanical resources to position the predicted voltages close to nominal values, while minimizing the use of inverter-based resources (i.e., DERs), making them available for control at a faster time-scale (after the uncertainty reveals itself). A convex, inner approximation of the OPF problem is adapted to a mixed-integer linear program that minimizes voltage deviations from nominal (i.e., maximizes voltage margins). Here, the resulting OPF solution respects all the network constraints and is, hence, robust against modeling simplifications. Simulation based analysis on IEEE distribution feeders validates the approach.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Toward Malaria Risk Prediction in Afghanistan Using Remote Sensing

Malaria causes more than one million deaths every year worldwide, with most of the mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa. It is also a significant public health concern in Afghanistan, with approximately 60% of the population, or nearly 14 million people, living in a malaria-endemic area. Malaria transmission has been shown to be dependent on a number of environmental and meteorological variables. For countries in the tropics and the subtropics, rainfall is normally the most important variable, except for regions with high altitude where temperature may also be important. Afghanistan s diverse landscape contributes to the heterogeneous malaria distribution. Understanding the environmental effects on malaria transmission is essential to the effective control of malaria in Afghanistan. Provincial malaria data gathered by Health Posts in 23 provinces during 2004-2007 are used in this study. Remotely sensed geophysical parameters, including precipitation from TRMM, and surface temperature and vegetation index from MODIS are used to derive the empirical relationship between malaria cases and these geophysical parameters. Both neural network methods and regression analyses are used to examine the environmental dependency of malaria transmission. And the trained models are used for predicting future transmission. While neural network methods are intrinsically more adaptive for nonlinear relationship, the regression approach lends itself in providing statistical significance measures. Our results indicate that NDVI is the strongest predictor. This reflects the role of irrigation, instead of precipitation, in Afghanistan for agricultural production. The second strongest prediction is surface temperature. Precipitation is not shown as a significant predictor, contrary to other malarious countries in the tropics or subtropics. With the regression approach, the malaria time series are modelled well, with average R2 of 0.845. For cumulative 6-month prediction of malaria cases, the average provincial accuracy reaches 91%. The developed predictive and early warning capabilities support the Third Strategic Approach of the WHO EMRO Malaria Control and Elimination Plan.

Safi, N.↗

Unexpected host dependency of Antarctic Nanohaloarchaeota

In hypersaline environments, Nanohaloarchaeota (Diapherotrites, Parvarchaeota, Aenigmarchaeota, Nanoarchaeota, Nanohaloarchaeota [DPANN] superphylum) are thought to be free-living microorganisms. We report cultivation of 2 strains of Antarctic Nanohaloarchaeota and show that they require the haloarchaeon Halorubrum lacusprofundi for growth. By performing growth using enrichments and fluorescence-activated cell sorting, we demonstrated successful cultivation of Candidatus Nanohaloarchaeum antarcticus, purification of Ca. Nha. antarcticus away from other species, and growth and verification of Ca. Nha. antarcticus with Hrr. lacusprofundi ; these findings are analogous to those required for fulfilling Koch’s postulates. We use fluorescent in situ hybridization and transmission electron microscopy to assess cell structures and interactions; metagenomics to characterize enrichment taxa, generate metagenome assembled genomes, and interrogate Antarctic communities; and proteomics to assess metabolic pathways and speculate about the roles of certain proteins. Metagenome analysis indicates the presence of a single species, which is endemic to Antarctic hypersaline systems that support the growth of haloarchaea. The presence of unusually large proteins predicted to function in attachment and invasion of hosts plus the absence of key biosynthetic pathways (e.g., lipids) in metagenome assembled genomes of globally distributed Nanohaloarchaeota indicate that all members of the lineage have evolved as symbionts. Our work expands the range of archaeal symbiotic lifestyles and provides a genetically tractable model system for advancing understanding of the factors controlling microbial symbiotic relationships.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

The Nature of Electrochemical Delithiation of Li-Mg Alloy Electrodes: Neutron Computed Tomography and Modeling of Li Diffusion and Delithiation Phenomenon

Li-Mg alloys are promising as positive electrodes (anodes) for Li-ion batteries due to the high Li storage capacity and the relatively lower volume change during the lithiation/delithiation process. They also present a unique opportunity to image the Li distribution through the electrode thickness at various delithiation states. In this work, spatial distributions of Li in electrochemically delithiated Li-Mg alloy electrodes have been quantitatively determined using neutron tomography. Specifically, the Li concentration profiles along thickness direction are determined. A rigorous analytical model to quantify the diffusion-controlled delithiation, accompanied by phase transition and boundary movement, has also been developed to explain the delithiation mechanism. The analytical modeling scheme successfully predicted the Li concentration profiles which agreed well with the experimental data. It is demonstrated that during discharge Li is removed by diffusion through the solid solution Li-Mg phases and this proceeds with β→α phase transition and the associated phase boundary movement through the thickness of the electrode. This is also accompanied by electrode thinning due to the change in molar volume during delithiation. In conclusion, following the approaches developed here, one can develop a rigorous and quantitative understanding of electrochemical delithiation in electrodes of electrochemical cells, similar to that in the present Li-Mg electrodes.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

GIS-Based Modeling of Contaminated Soil Volumes at Multiple Sites in the Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program - 20149

The remediation of hazardous, toxic, and radioactive waste (HTRW) sites produces cost-related risks associated with the estimation of contaminated soil or debris volumes. Historical risk-management techniques include cost contingencies to cover volume uncertainties that affect project budgeting and decision-making. The Buffalo District teamed with project partners to lessen volume uncertainty and reduce project risks at multiple HTRW sites managed under the Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP). Historical remedial investigations under FUSRAP commonly identified the presence of radiological material in site media, the associated human health risk, and then areas of remediation. To manage remedial execution and reduce risk, pre-design or remediation-phase sampling essentially 'chased' contamination, which was not conducive to efficient predictive budgeting derived from Feasibility Study (FS) cost analyses. The Buffalo District first optimized their approach to better understand volume uncertainty by utilizing the Argonne National Laboratory's Bayesian Approaches for Adaptive Spatial Sampling (BAASS) software [1]. BAASS processed soft data (e.g., gamma walk-over data) and spatial sampling data to estimate the lateral extent of contaminated soil irrespective of depth (i.e., gross contamination extent) and define areas of contaminant uncertainty. The software performed a binary transformation of contaminant concentrations at all sampling points based upon remedial action goals or a sum of ratios approach (i.e., clean, impacted, or range of impacts in soil). The model produced two-dimensional (horizontal) contaminant probability contours and statistical uncertainty in the sampling coverage and resulting contaminant extents. This method was translated vertically by partitioning the sampling data into depth brackets that produced a stacked representation of contaminant extents and uncertainty in the subsurface (i.e., similar to construction lifts). The results commonly led to a better understanding of project uncertainty and the need for sampling strategies that produce high-confidence soil volumes, which control costs. The BAASS-based delineations were eventually replaced by Empirical Bayesian Kriging (EBK) methods available in ArcGIS Spatial or 3D Analysts [2]. The EBK method calculates contaminant probability zones derived from user-controlled semivariograms of the spatial datasets. The resulting probability zones (e.g., 50% or 80% of contaminant probability) represent the two-dimensional surface delineation of the overall horizontal remedial area, similarly to BAASS. However, unlike BAASS, the vertical sampling data within these probability zones became vertical control points to contour a subterranean surface that connects subsurface points to the land-surface delineations of contamination. The resulting representation of horizontal and vertical impacts within an enclosed envelop (volume) of soil included uncertainty distributions that are used to plan uncertainty-reduction sampling. These data-driven and math-based models of three-dimensional sampling results produced well-bounded remedial volumes for project planning and better uncertainty predictions during project budgeting. The EBK method was applied to several FUSRAP sites managed by the Buffalo District and compared to less rigorously modeled sites previously remediated by the District. The comparison of modeled to actual remediated volumes provide a basis for validating the volume-estimation method. This comparison is important to ensure modeled volumes match physical boundaries of site remediation. FUSRAP sites with denser investigative sampling and lesser volume uncertainty proved useful in remedial planning and contracting. The Buffalo District noted that historical sites with sparser sampling arrays had greater disparity between estimated volumes and final remedial volumes. The benefit achieved over the cost of detailed soil sampling appears positive for FUSRAP projects, especially where impacts vary widely and appear unbounded by investigation-phase sampling. The subsequent Empirical Bayesian Kriging of contamination coupled with vertical contouring for soil estimations reduces uncertainty in soil volumes or indicates where sampling is required to reduce uncertainty, which together optimize remedial planning and budgeting. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

SOLVENT HOLD TANK SAMPLE RESULTS FOR MCU-11-314, MCU-11-315, MCU-11-316, MCU-11-317, MCU-11-318 AND MCU-11-319

Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) analyzed solvent samples from Modular Caustic-Side Solvent Extraction Unit (MCU) in support of continuing operations. A quarterly analysis of the solvent is required to maintain solvent composition within specifications. Analytical results of the analyses of Solvent Hold Tank (SHT) samples MCU-11-314, MCU-11-315, MCU-11-316, MCU-11-317, MCU-11-318 and MCU-11-319 are reported. The results show that the solvent at MCU does not require an Isopar{reg_sign} L addition, but it will require addition of trioctylamine. Cesium mass transfer testing with the solvent matches expected extraction behavior but shows a slightly lower stripping efficiency than seen in the original process demonstration for Macrobatch 3. The entrained aqueous solution indicates the scrub wash is significantly out of specification. As a result, the facility replaced the scrub wash. Unlike the previous solvent sample results, these analyses indicate that the solvent does not require minor Isopar{reg_sign} L trimming at this time. However, addition of TOA is warranted. These findings indicate that the new protocols for solvent monitoring and control are yielding favorable results. Nevertheless, the deviation in the TOA concentration since the last analysis indicates continued periodic (i.e., quarterly) monitoring is recommended. The {sup 137}Cs mass transfer results from the solvent sample testing show possible evidence of slightly reduced stripping efficiency. An evaluation (using a model) of expected system performance for MCU using the measured distribution values predicts an {approx}50% decline in DFs given the ESS test results. The customer should consider pulling a SHT sample for reanalysis.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Prognostic simulations of mixed-phase clouds with model AC-1D v1.0: the impact of aerosol types and freezing parameterizations on ice crystal budgets

Mixed-phase clouds at high latitudes contribute to the uncertainty in predicting cloud feedbacks and climate sensitivity, mainly due to the complexity of microphysical processes that influence the partitioning between the supercooled liquid and ice phases, and hence, cloud radiative effects on regional scales. Particularly in Arctic mixed-phase clouds, the activation of ice-nucleating particles (INPs) from various aerosol populations remains a leading source of uncertainty. We developed an aerosol-cloud one-dimensional (AC-1D) model, which provides a novel framework to prognostically treat INP and ice crystal budgets while explicitly accounting for polydisperse and multicomponent aerosol that activate INPs following different freezing parameterizations. The AC-1D model is informed by large-eddy simulations to probe the impact of INP representation on predicted ice crystal number concentrations (N i ) and ice crystal budgets in mixed-phase Arctic stratus. We apply three immersion freezing (IMF) parameterizations, two time-independent (singular) and one time-dependent (classical nucleation theory), to predict the evolution of the INP reservoir and resulting ice crystal budget from polydisperse mineral dust, organic (humic-like substances), and sea spray aerosol particle size distributions. Our analysis focuses on how variations in aerosol number concentration and cloud system parameters such as cloud cooling rate, cloud-top entrainment rate, and ice crystal fall speed influence the INP reservoir and ice crystal budgets. Furthermore, this study investigates the competitive ice nucleation dynamics in mixed aerosol environments and provides a process-level quantification of the INP budget terms, which directly controls ice crystal budgets. For all studied case scenarios, the aerosol types and associated particle size distributions significantly impact INP and N i , and the choice between a time-dependent and a singular freezing description yields orders-of-magnitude differences in the predicted INP and N i over the 10 h simulation time, reflecting typical cloud lifetimes. Our results show that the influence of cloud cooling, INP entrainment, and sedimentation varies significantly depending on the chosen freezing parameterization. These findings underscore the critical need for robust IMF parameterizations and precise cloud system observations to enhance the accuracy of models in predicting mixed-phase cloud structure and evolution.

Arctic clouds↗

Institute for High Heat Flux Removal (IHHFR). Phases I, II, and III

The IHHFR focused on interdisciplinary applications as it relates to high heat flux engineering issues and problems which arise due to engineering systems being miniaturized, optimized, or requiring increased high heat flux performance. The work in the IHHFR focused on water as a coolant and includes: (1) the development, design, and construction of the high heat flux flow loop and facility; (2) test section development, design, and fabrication; and, (3) single-side heat flux experiments to produce 2-D boiling curves and 3-D conjugate heat transfer measurements for single-side heated test sections. This work provides data for comparisons with previously developed and new single-side heated correlations and approaches that address the single-side heated effect on heat transfer. In addition, this work includes the addition of single-side heated circular TS and a monoblock test section with a helical wire insert. Finally, the present work includes: (1) data base expansion for the monoblock with a helical wire insert (only for the latter geometry), (2) prediction and verification using finite element, (3) monoblock model and methodology development analyses, and (4) an alternate model development for a hypervapotron and related conjugate heat transfer controlling parameters.

2-D Boiling Curves↗

Reinforcement Learning‐Based Adaptation of Grid Following Inverter's Internal Controller to Networked Microgrids' Strengths

The varying topological configurations, generator commitments and dispatches, and dynamic load demand lead to changing system's strengths during the operations of networked microgrids. When the system's strengths significantly change, the fixed control gains at large devices may result in unsatisfactory system performance; this necessitates the tuning of the control gains at large devices to adapt to the changing system's strengths. In this paper, observer-based reinforcement learning (RL) is utilised to automatically tune the proportional-integral (PI) gains of phase lock loop (PLL) controller of grid-following (GFL) inverters to adapt to the changing strengths of microgrids and networked microgrids. The RL agent in this framework augments an observer predicting system's strengths, from which the RL control policy will adjust accordingly to tune the PLL controller's gains towards the system's strengths. Also, to enhance the control performance, the recently introduced Barrier function-based RL framework is leveraged for the design of reward function to prevent the high frequency nadir. An operational 26 kV electric distribution system, which is modelled as networked microgrids, is used to illustrate the need and effectiveness of the proposed RL-tuned control.

frequency response↗

Using spatial information about recurrence risk for robust optimization of dose-painting prescription functions

Purpose: To develop a robust method for deriving dose-painting prescription functions using spatial information about the risk for disease recurrence. Methods: Spatial distributions of radiobiological model parameters are derived from distributions of recurrence risk after uniform irradiation. These model parameters are then used to derive optimal dose-painting prescription functions given a constant mean biologically effective dose. Results: An estimate for the optimal dose distribution can be derived based on spatial information about recurrence risk. Dose painting based on imaging markers that are moderately or poorly correlated with recurrence risk are predicted to potentially result in inferior disease control when compared the same mean biologically effective dose delivered uniformly. A robust optimization approach may partially mitigate this issue. Conclusions: The methods described here can be used to derive an estimate for a robust, patient-specific prescription function for use in dose painting. Two approximate scaling relationships were observed: First, the optimal choice for the maximum dose differential when using either a linear or two-compartment prescription function is proportional to R, where R is the Pearson correlation coefficient between a given imaging marker and recurrence risk after uniform irradiation. Second, the predicted maximum possible gain in tumor control probability for any robust optimization technique is nearly proportional to the square of R.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Understanding the creation of & reducing surface microroughness during polishing & post-processing of glass optics

In the follow study, we have developed a detailed understanding of the chemical and mechanical microscopic interactions that occur during polishing affecting the resulting surface microroughness of the workpiece. Through targeted experiments and modeling, the quantitative relationships of many important polishing parameters & characteristics affecting surface microroughness have been determined. These behaviors and phenomena have been described by a number of models including: (a) the Ensemble Hertzian Multi Gap (EHMG) model used to predict the removal rate and roughness at atomic force microscope (AFM) scale lengths as a function of various polishing parameters, (b) the Island Distribution Gap (IDG) model used to predict the roughness at larger scale lengths, (c) the Deraguin-Verwey-Landau-Overbeek (DLVO) 3-body electrostatic colloidal model used to predict the interaction of slurry particles at the interface and roughness behavior as a function of pH, and (d) a diffusion/chemical reaction rate model of the incorporation of impurities species into the polishing surface layer (called the Bielby layer). Based on this improved understanding, novel strategies to polish the workpiece have been developed simultaneously leading to both ultrasmooth surfaces and high material removal rates. Some of these strategies include: (a) use of narrow PSD slurries, (b) a novel diamond conditioning recipe of the lap to increase the active contact area between the workpiece and lap without destroying its surface figure, (c) proper control of pH for a given glass type to allow for a uniform distribution of slurry particles at the interface, and (d) increase in applied load just up to the transition between molecular to plastic removal regime for a single slurry particle. These techniques have been incorporated into a previously developed finishing process called Convergent Polishing leading to not just economical finishing process with improved surface figure control, but also simultaneously leading to low roughness surface with high removal rates.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Scaling hyporheic nitrogen cycling in large river alluvial aquifers

Research Element 1: Denitrification is a difficult flux to measure when fluxes are low and when the ecosystem is difficult to sample. These attributes describe Nyack floodplain, a large gravel-bedded aquifer adjacent to the Middle Fork Flathead River. Given that denitrification is simply respiration with nitrate as a terminal electron acceptor, we reasoned that N 2 production should negatively covary with oxygen respiration so long that oxygen is available. We sampled 16 wells 8 times throughout a year and analyzed these water samples on a membrane-inlet mass spectrometer for N 2 :Ar and O 2 . We fit multilevel models to N 2 :Ar as a function of dissolved oxygen. Within wells, there was no relationship between O 2 and N 2 :Ar. Among wells N 2 :Ar increased as O 2 declined. Based on the slope of this relationship, ~ -0.07, and estimated oxygen respiration in Nyack derived from prior studies, a possible range for denitrification is 0-8 mmol m -2 d -1 corresponding to a turnover rate for nitrate of 0-0.2/d. This estimated turnover rate is in the lower 20% of rates measured in the LINX 2 study, yet shows that even in a low nitrate (0.005 mmol/L) aquifer denitrification can be a substantial sink for dissolved N. Research Element 3 and 4: We developed a new theoretical approach to describe the relationship between water inflow, water outflow, and water age in porous media control volumes under dynamic flow conditions. Our approach had three distinct steps. First we described the application of well-established equations borrowed from Chemical Engineering to describe water age distributions in the hyporheic zone under steady state conditions. We published the associated results in the scientific journal PLOS ONE. Second, we developed a new theory ("flow spans") to describe how predicted steady-state water age distributions will respond to time varying imbalances in hyporheic discharge and recharge. Finally, we developed a proof-of-concept simulation model based on the new theory and used the model to examine the effects of flow regulation on a simulated river with characteristics representative of western U.S. montane rivers with expansive hyporheic zones.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Recent DIII-D advances in runaway electron measurement and model validation

Novel measurements and modeling of runaway electron (RE) dynamics in DIII-D have resolved experimental discrepancies and validated predictions for ITER, improving confidence that RE avoidance and mitigation can be predictably achieved. Considering RE formation, first experimental assessments of the RE seed current demonstrates that present hot-tail theories are not yet accurate and require improved treatment of the pellet dynamics. Novel measurements of kinetic instabilities in the MHz-range have been made in the RE formation phase, with the intensity of these modes correlated with previously unexplained empirical thresholds for RE generation. Controlled RE dissipation experiments in quiescent regimes have validated RE distribution function dependencies on collisional and synchrotron damping, both in terms of distribution function shape and dissipation rates. Measurements of RE bremsstrahlung and synchrotron emission are now used in tandem to resolve energy and pitch-angle effects. A resolution to long-standing dissipation anomalies in the quiescent regime is offered by taking into account kinetic instability effects on RE phase-space dynamics. Kinetic instabilities in the 100–200 MHz range are directly observed, though modeling finds the largest dissipation arises from GHz range instabilities that are beyond the reach of existing diagnostics. Kinetic instabilities are also observed in the mature post-disruption RE plateau phase, so long as the collisional damping rate is reduced with low-Z injection. Experiments with high-Z injection find that the dissipation rate saturates with injection quantity, likely due to neutral diffusion rates being slower than vertical instability rates in DIII-D. Considering the final loss, a 0D model for first-wall Joule heating is found to be in agreement with experiment, and controlled access to RE equilibria with edge safety factor of two identifies novel dynamics brought about by large-scale kink instabilities. These dynamics are typified by fast (tens of microseconds) RE loss rates without RE beam regeneration. The above measurements and comparison with theory represent significant advances in the understanding of RE dynamics and indicate possible new opportunities for RE avoidance or mitigation via kinetic instabilities.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Mathematical Modeling of Electrochemical Flow Capacitors

Electrochemical flow capacitors (EFCs) for grid-scale energy storage are a new technology that is beginning to receive interest. Prediction of the expected performance of such systems is important as modeling can be a useful avenue in the search for design improvements. Models based off of circuit analogues exist to predict EFC performance, but these suffer from deficiencies (e.g. a multitude of fitting constants that are required and the ability to analyze only one spatial direction at a time). In this paper mathematical models based off of three-dimensional macroscopic balances (similar to models for porous electrodes) are reported. Unlike existing three-dimensional porous electrode-based approaches for modeling slurry electrodes, advection (i.e., transport associated with bulk fluid motion) of the overpotential is included in order to account for the surface charge at the interface between flowing particles and the electrolyte. Doing so leads to the presence of overpotential boundary layers that control the performance of EFCs. These models were used to predict the charging behavior of an EFC under both flowing and non-flowing conditions. Agreement with experimental data was good, including proper prediction of the steady-state current that is achieved during charging of a flowing EFC. (C) The Author(s) 2015. Published by ECS. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial No Derivatives 4.0 License (CC BY-NC-ND, http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is not changed in any way and is properly cited. For permission for commercial reuse, please email: oa@electrochem.org. All rights reserved.

Hoyt, NC↗

Biomimetic Models for An Ecological Approach to Massively-Deployed Sensor Networks

Promises of ubiquitous control of the physical environment by massively-deployed wireless sensor networks open avenues for new applications that will redefine the way we live and work. Due to small size and low cost of sensor devices, visionaries promise systems enabled by deployment of massive numbers of sensors ubiquitous throughout our environment working in concert. Recent research has concentrated on developing techniques for performing relatively simple tasks with minimal energy expense, assuming some form of centralized control. Unfortunately, centralized control is not conducive to parallel activities and does not scale to massive size networks. Execution of simple tasks in sparse networks will not lead to the sophisticated applications predicted. We propose a new way of looking at massively-deployed sensor networks, motivated by lessons learned from the way biological ecosystems are organized. We demonstrate that in such a model, fully distributed data aggregation can be performed in a scalable fashion in massively deployed sensor networks, where motes operate on local information, making local decisions that are aggregated across the network to achieve globally-meaningful effects. We show that such architectures may be used to facilitate communication and synchronization in a fault-tolerant manner, while balancing workload and required energy expenditure throughout the network.

Jones, Kennie H.↗

Advanced Software for Analysis of High-Speed Rolling-Element Bearings

COBRA-AHS is a package of advanced software for analysis of rigid or flexible shaft systems supported by rolling-element bearings operating at high speeds under complex mechanical and thermal loads. These loads can include centrifugal and thermal loads generated by motions of bearing components. COBRA-AHS offers several improvements over prior commercial bearing-analysis programs: It includes innovative probabilistic fatigue-life-estimating software that provides for computation of three-dimensional stress fields and incorporates stress-based (in contradistinction to prior load-based) mathematical models of fatigue life. It interacts automatically with the ANSYS finite-element code to generate finite-element models for estimating distributions of temperature and temperature-induced changes in dimensions in iterative thermal/dimensional analyses: thus, for example, it can be used to predict changes in clearances and thermal lockup. COBRA-AHS provides an improved graphical user interface that facilitates the iterative cycle of analysis and design by providing analysis results quickly in graphical form, enabling the user to control interactive runs without leaving the program environment, and facilitating transfer of plots and printed results for inclusion in design reports. Additional features include roller-edge stress prediction and influence of shaft and housing distortion on bearing performance.

Poplawski, J. V.↗

The Influence of Environment on Post-Detonation Chemistry and Debris Formation (Abbreviated Final Report: 20-SI-006)

Predicting, responding to, or interpreting the chemical record preserved in debris derived from nuclear events can be challenging due to chemical fractionation. Chemical fractionation is where different species of the evolving radionuclide inventory segregate and/or are lost from the system over the timescales of debris formation. Both historic data and recent research suggest that the interaction and character of the local environment may exert controls on chemical fractionation by influencing the cooling and evolution of the associated fireball as well as the composition of the vapor term and resultant speciation. Prior to this work, an integrated platform permitting dynamic and concurrent consideration of physical and chemical evolution of early time post-detonation event environments did not exist. Our work merged historic data and experimental approaches to support development of a computational framework able to simulate fundamental processes (e.g., entrainment of local environment, oxidation chemistry, and cooling time scales) that may perturb the radionuclide inventory captured in post-detonation debris. Work with historic debris confirmed that entrained environmental material affect debris composition, structure, and radionuclide incorporation. Complementary work utilizing a readily controllable and tunable benchtop setup (a plasma flow reactor) simulated the late cooling of a nuclear fireball (e.g., T < 6000 K) and bounded the sensitivity of actinide speciation and particle size distribution to variations in oxygen concentration and cooling rates. Concurrent laser ablation and laser heating experiments were used to investigate the chemistry and physics of processes occurring in vaporized and/or rapidly heated actinides and other elements in the presence of oxygen. A more computationally efficient microphysical model was developed for predicting and evolving size distributions of particles forming from mixed vapor terms and simulating particle formation processes under a variety of extreme conditions. Continued study of historic nuclear event film confirmed that shockwave data and physics codes agree to within the uncertainty of the data. Good agreement was achieved for thermal emission from an airburst, however the paucity of low-temperature molecular opacity data for mixtures of air, bomb debris, entrained dirt, and water vapor complicate agreement for more elaborate scenarios. A multiphysics code (ALE3D) was modified to bring the necessary physics and chemistry, including these new data and insights, onto a single platform. Code development included improved initialization of large physical systems, modernization of chemistry capabilities, and modifications to enable inclusion of particle transport.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Improved Characterization and Modeling of Tight Oil Formations for CO 2 Enhanced Oil Recovery Potential and Storage Capacity Estimation

Tight oil formations such as those in the Bakken petroleum system are known to hold hundreds of billions of barrels of oil in place; however, the primary recovery factor for these plays is typically less than 10%. Tight oil formations, including the Bakken Formation, therefore, may be attractive candidates for enhanced oil recovery (EOR) using CO 2 . Multiphase fluid behavior and flow in fluid-rich shales can vary substantially depending on the size of pore throats, and properties such as fluid viscosity and density are much different in nanoscale pores than in macroscale pores. Thus it is critical to understand the nature and distribution of nano-, micro-, and macroscale pores and fracture networks. To address these issues, the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) has been conducting a research program entitled “Improved Characterization and Modeling of Tight Oil Formations for CO 2 Enhanced Oil Recovery Potential and Storage Capacity Estimation.” The objectives of the project are 1) the use of advanced characterization methods to better understand and quantify the petrophysical and geomechanical factors that control CO 2 and oil mobility within tight oil formation samples, 2) the determination of CO 2 permeation and oil extraction rates in tight reservoir rocks and organic-rich shales of the Bakken, and 3) the integration of the laboratory-based CO 2 permeation and oil extraction data and the characterization data into geologic models and dynamic simulations to develop predictions of CO 2 storage resource and EOR in the Bakken tight oil formation. A combination of standard and advanced petrophysical characterization techniques were applied to characterize samples of Bakken Formation tight reservoir rock and shales from multiple wells. Techniques included advanced computer tomography (CT) imaging, scanning electron microscopy (SEM) techniques, whole-core and micro x-ray CT imaging, field emission (FE) SEM, and focused ion beam (FIB) SEM. Selected samples were also analyzed for geomechanical properties. X-ray CT imaging yielded information on the occurrence of fractures, bedding planes, fossils, and bioturbation in core, as well as data on bulk density and photoelectric factor logs, which were used to interpret porosity, organic content, and mineralogy. FESEM was used for characterization of nano- and microscale features, including nanoscale pore visualization and micropore and pore throat mineralogy. FIBSEM yielded micro- to nanoscale visualization of fracture networks, porosity and pore-size distribution, connected versus isolated porosity, and distribution of organics. Results from the characterization activities provide insight on nanoscale fracture properties, pore throat mineralogy and connectivity, rock matrix characteristics, mineralogy, and organic content. Laboratory experiments demonstrated that CO 2 can permeate the tight matrix of Bakken shale and nonshale reservoir samples and mobilize oil from those samples. Geologic models were created at scales ranging from the core plug to the reservoir, and dynamic simulations were conducted. The data from the characterization and laboratory-based activities were integrated into modeling research activities to determine the fundamental mechanisms controlling fluid transport in the Bakken, which support EOR scheme design and estimation of CO 2 storage potential in tight oil formations. Simulation results suggest a CO 2 storage resource estimate range of 169 million to 1.5 billion tonnes for the Bakken in North Dakota, possibly resulting in 1.8 billion to 16 billion barrels of incremental oil.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗