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At least 433 records · Page 24

Analysis of A Severe Dust Storm and Its Impact on Air Quality Conditions Using Wrf-Chem Modeling, Satellite Imagery, and Ground Observations

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of an extreme dust event recorded in the Arabian Peninsula and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) between 31 March and 3 April 2015. Simulations of the dust event with the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with the Chemistry module (WRF-Chem) were analyzed and verified using MSG-SEVIRI imagery and aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the recent 1-km Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm for MODIS Terra/Aqua. Data from the National Centers for Atmospheric Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) and the upper-air radiosonde observations were used to understand the synoptic of the event. In addition, the impact of the event on atmospheric and air quality conditions is investigated. The Air Quality Index (AQI) was calculated prior, during, and after the event to assess the degradation of air quality conditions. Simulated temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and surface radiation were compared to observations at six monitoring stations in the UAE giving R2 values of 0.84, 0.63, 0.60, and 0.84, respectively. From 1 to 2 April 2015, both observations and simulations showed an average drop in temperature from 33 to 26 °C and radiance reduction from about 950 to 520 Wm−2. The AOD modeled by WRF-Chem showed a good correlation with Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) measurements in the UAE with R2 of 0.83. The AQI over the UAE reached hazardous levels during the peak of the dust event before rapidly decreasing to moderate–good air quality levels. This work is the first attempt to demonstrate the potential of using WRF-Chem to estimate AQI over the UAE along with two satellite products (MODIS-MAIAC and MSG-SEVIRI) for dust detection and tracking.

dust storm↗

GEOS Constituent Data Assimilation Beyond Aura MLS: Assimilating NASA SAGE III/ISS Profiles of Stratospheric Water Vapor

Ozone and water vapor in the lower stratosphere are important trace gases for atmospheric chemistry and radiative budget. The Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) missions have been crucial in monitoring the stratospheric ozone loss and the subsequent recovery as well as the trends in water vapor linked to surface temperature trends. The SAGE III instrument aboard the International Space Station (ISS) continues the SAGE mission record, with high vertical resolution profiles of ozone and water vapor available since mid 2017. The NASA GEOS Earth system model has the new capability to assimilate multi-constituents from ground and space-based instruments using the GEOS Constituent Data Assimilation System (CoDAS). The recently released MERRA-2 Stratospheric Composition Reanalysis with Aura MLS (M2-SCREAM) assimilates version 4.2 MLS ozone, water vapor and other chemically-reactive species with the NASA GEOS model coupled to a stratospheric-only chemistry mechanism and transport constrained to the MERRA-2 reanalysis. While the number of solar occultation observations a day from SAGE III/ISS is about 1% of the total number of profiles observed globally by MLS, the chemical timescales of ozone and water vapor in the lower stratosphere are long enough that the SAGE III/ISS data may provide a useful constraint on the assimilated product. Using the same GEOS CoDAS configuration as M2-SCREAM, we will present a series of experiments to investigate if water vapor trends are consistent with the assimilation of SAGE observations with and without Aura retrievals, and to determine if the assimilation of SAGE observations produces a steady product for trend analysis, especially as the end of the Aura mission nears. In our experiments, assimilating only SAGE III/ISS water vapor profiles results in water vapor fields more consistent with experiments that assimilate MLS v5; however, in the polar regions SAGE III/ISS observations are not available and the modelled values are unconstrained. We are encouraged by the positive benefit assimilating the less frequent SAGE III/ISS observations has on stratospheric composition. Sensitivity experiments such as these will allow us to assess the added value of SAGE data for continued monitoring of the stratospheric composition for climate and ozone recovery assessments.

K Emma Knowland↗

Prediction Skill of the MJO Teleconnection Signals in the NASA GEOS Subseasonal Reforecasts

Tropical-extratropical teleconnections are considered key to advancing subseasonal prediction. The Madden Julian oscillation (MJO), characterized by large scale convective envelopes propagating along the tropical Indo-Pacific sector, is known to modulate midlatitude circulation and associated weather patterns. Although there is a general consensus on the MJO's influence on the midlatitude circulation, which is thought to be due to modulations of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Pacific North America (PNA) pattern, relatively less is known about the predictability of these teleconnection signals in dynamical forecast models. The composite evolution of the midlatitude circulation anomalies and associated wave train structure as the delayed response to tropical heating are reported in many studies that have examined reanalyses and long model simulations. However, it is yet to be determined whether they lend any beneficial subseasonal forecast skill, especially to weekly mean surface temperature and precipitation over North America. Investigating useful predictable signals from the MJO teleconnections is also complicated by the fact that the MJO is a moving heat source with an approximate periodicity of 30-60 days, and that the structure and amplitude of the midlatitude response can be sensitive to the longitudinal positioning of the heating anomaly as well as the propagation speed of the MJO. The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of MJO teleconnections on forecast accuracy at 2-3 week lead over North America, with an emphasis on the above-mentioned lesser known aspects of these teleconnections. To this end, we utilize a suite of subseasonal reforecasts performed with the latest NASA GEOS-5 seasonal-to-subseasonal (S2S) system. These reforecasts were performed as part of the NOAA SubX project, wherein the NASA GEOS-5 atmosphere-ocean coupled model was run at degree horizontal resolution, initialized every 5 days for the period 1999-2016. The GEOS-5 model shows skillful predictions of the MJO, with the correlation coefficient based on the real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) index staying at or above 0.5 up to forecast lead 26-36 days. The system is thus a useful tool for investigating MJO teleconnection processes.

Achuthavarier, Deepthi↗

Improving the Time Resolution of Hyper-Spectral Infrared Sounding Observations With Trajectory Enhancement

Low Earth orbit (LEO) hyper-spectral infrared (IR) sounders have significant potential for characterizing the complex evolution of thermodynamic environments favorable for convective initiation and ongoing convection. The snapshots at fixed local times are unable to provide the temporal resolution needed to resolve the rapidly evolving convective environment. A novel methodology using trajectory modeling coupled with satellite soundings was developed to create proximity soundings near NCEI Storm Events to investigate differences in severe weather environments (Kalmus et al., 2019, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-18-0055.1). This methodology was recently extended to entire satellite swaths forward in time up to six hours into the future and was evaluated during NOAA’s Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) in a quasi-operational setting (Kahn et al., 2023, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-22-0204.1). This methodology is based on parcel forward-trajectory calculations from the satellite observing time to recreate future soundings of temperature and moisture at regularly gridded intervals in space and time. Using coincident Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) rainfall estimates, we show that convective available potential energy (CAPE) is increased and convective inhibition (CIN) is decreased at times and locations where convection initiated. This methodology was evaluated with ERA5 data sampled to mimic the satellite observing swaths (Richardson et al., 2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-97). Approximately 60–90% of the temporal and spatial variability in temperature and humidity is explained by parcel advection using trajectory modeling. This method will be applied to the multi-decadal LEO satellite record and could be used to examine capabilities of future satellite missions such as the GeoXO mission.

Emily Berndt↗

Long-term Ozone Changes and Associated Climate Impacts in CMIP5 Simulations

Ozone changes and associated climate impacts in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations are analyzed over the historical (1960-2005) and future (2006-2100) period under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). In contrast to CMIP3, where half of the models prescribed constant stratospheric ozone, CMIP5 models all consider past ozone depletion and future ozone recovery. Multimodel mean climatologies and long-term changes in total and tropospheric column ozone calculated from CMIP5 models with either interactive or prescribed ozone are in reasonable agreement with observations. However, some large deviations from observations exist for individual models with interactive chemistry, and these models are excluded in the projections. Stratospheric ozone projections forced with a single halogen, but four greenhouse gas (GHG) scenarios show largest differences in the northern midlatitudes and in the Arctic in spring (approximately 20 and 40 Dobson units (DU) by 2100, respectively). By 2050, these differences are much smaller and negligible over Antarctica in austral spring. Differences in future tropospheric column ozone are mainly caused by differences in methane concentrations and stratospheric input, leading to approximately 10DU increases compared to 2000 in RCP 8.5. Large variations in stratospheric ozone particularly in CMIP5 models with interactive chemistry drive correspondingly large variations in lower stratospheric temperature trends. The results also illustrate that future Southern Hemisphere summertime circulation changes are controlled by both the ozone recovery rate and the rate of GHG increases, emphasizing the importance of simulating and taking into account ozone forcings when examining future climate projections.

tropospheric ozone↗

Regional Impacts of Ice Sheet Surface Representation Improvements in an Earth System Model

Ice sheet surface conditions and their subsequent impact on surface mass balance play an important role in ice sheet dynamics and ice sheet interaction with the overlying atmosphere and surrounding ocean. The NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office’s (GMAO) Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) ecosystem of models and reanalyses model ice sheet and glacier surface mass balance with a moderately complex snow and ice module, including prognostic surface albedo evolution, fractional snow cover, and snowpack hydrology and meltwater retention. With this configuration, Greenland near surface air temperatures and ice sheet melt are well represented in MERRA-2, GMAO’s current atmospheric reanalysis; however, the similarity to observations in some regions is due, in part, to compensating biases in surface energy budget. Recent improvements to GEOS’ cloud microphysics and longwave radiation parameterizations reduced biases in surface net longwave radiation and exacerbated surface net shortwave radiation biases, effectively increasing near surface temperatures and melting, particularly during the summer months. Here, we demonstrate the Earth system response to an improved representation of the ice sheet surface focused on minimizing the surface energy biases and increasing spatial and temporal representativeness. New changes to the surface albedo parameterization, including the introduction of a prognostic aerosol darkening scheme, help mitigate shortwave biases, while modifications to surface roughness characteristics improve near surface sensible heat fluxes. Focusing on the Arctic and Greenland, we examine the combined impact on these changes on regional weather conditions and ice sheet surface mass balance using a high resolution atmospheric only experiment, and we use a coupled model configuration to assess the impact on oceanic conditions and subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. Overall, these improvements increase modeled ice sheet surface realism and provide a strong basis for more accurate ice sheet mass balance in GMAO’s future reanalyses and forecasting systems.

Lauren C Andrews↗

Regional Impacts of Ice Sheet Surface Representation Improvements in an Earth System Model

Ice sheet surface conditions and their subsequent impact on surface mass balance play an important role in ice sheet dynamics and ice sheet interaction with the overlying atmosphere and surrounding ocean. The NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office’s (GMAO) Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) ecosystem of models and reanalyses model ice sheet and glacier surface mass balance with a moderately complex snow and ice module, including prognostic surface albedo evolution, fractional snow cover, and snowpack hydrology and meltwater retention. With this configuration, Greenland near surface air temperatures and ice sheet melt are well represented in MERRA-2, GMAO’s current atmospheric reanalysis; however, the similarity to observations in some regions is due, in part, to compensating biases in surface energy budget. Recent improvements to GEOS’ cloud microphysics and longwave radiation parameterizations reduced biases in surface net longwave radiation and exacerbated surface net shortwave radiation biases, effectively increasing near surface temperatures and melting, particularly during the summer months. Here, we demonstrate the Earth system response to an improved representation of the ice sheet surface focused on minimizing the surface energy biases and increasing spatial and temporal representativeness. New changes to the surface albedo parameterization, including the introduction of a prognostic aerosol darkening scheme, help mitigate shortwave biases, while modifications to surface roughness characteristics improve near surface sensible heat fluxes. Focusing on the Arctic and Greenland, we examine the combined impact on these changes on regional weather conditions and ice sheet surface mass balance using a high resolution atmospheric only experiment, and we use a coupled model configuration to assess the impact on oceanic conditions and subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. Overall, these improvements increase modeled ice sheet surface realism and provide a strong basis for more accurate ice sheet mass balance in GMAO’s future reanalyses and forecasting systems.

Lauren C. Andrews↗

Iron catalyst chemistry in modeling a high-pressure carbon monoxide nanotube reactor

The high-pressure carbon monoxide (HiPco) technique for producing single-wall carbon nanotubes (SWNTs) is analyzed with the use of a chemical reaction model coupled with flow properties calculated along streamlines, calculated by the FLUENT code for pure carbon monoxide. Cold iron pentacarbonyl, diluted in CO at about 30 atmospheres, is injected into a conical mixing zone, where hot CO is also introduced via three jets at 30 degrees with respect to the axis. Hot CO decomposes the Fe(CO)5 to release atomic Fe. Then iron nucleates and forms clusters that catalyze the formation of SWNTs by a disproportionation reaction (Boudouard) of CO on Fe-containing clusters. Alternative nucleation rates are estimated from the theory of hard sphere collision dynamics with an activation energy barrier. The rate coefficient for carbon nanotube growth is estimated from activation energies in the literature. The calculated growth was found be about an order of magnitude greater than measured, regardless of the nucleation rate. A study of cluster formation in an incubation zone prior to injection into the reactor shows that direct dimer formation from Fe atoms is not as important as formation via an exchange reaction of Fe with CO in FeCO.

Evaluation Studies↗

Application of a Reduced Order Kalman Filter to Initialize a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model: Impact on the Prediction of El Nino

A reduced order Kalman Filter, based on a simplification of the Singular Evolutive Extended Kalman (SEEK) filter equations, is used to assimilate observed fields of the surface wind stress, sea surface temperature and sea level into the nonlinear coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The SEEK filter projects the Kalman Filter equations onto a subspace defined by the eigenvalue decomposition of the error forecast matrix, allowing its application to high dimensional systems. The Zebiak and Cane model couples a linear reduced gravity ocean model with a single vertical mode atmospheric model of Zebiak. The compatibility between the simplified physics of the model and each observed variable is studied separately and together. The results show the ability of the model to represent the simultaneous value of the wind stress, SST and sea level, when the fields are limited to the latitude band 10 deg S - 10 deg N. In this first application of the Kalman Filter to a coupled ocean-atmosphere prediction model, the sea level fields are assimilated in terms of the Kelvin and Rossby modes of the thermocline depth anomaly. An estimation of the error of these modes is derived from the projection of an estimation of the sea level error over such modes. This method gives a value of 12 for the error of the Kelvin amplitude, and 6 m of error for the Rossby component of the thermocline depth. The ability of the method to reconstruct the state of the equatorial Pacific and predict its time evolution is demonstrated. The method is shown to be quite robust for predictions I up to six months, and able to predict the onset of the 1997 warm event fifteen months before its occurrence.

Ballabrera-Poy, Joaquim↗

Application of a Reduced Order Kalman Filter to Initialize a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model: Impact on the Prediction of El Nino

A reduced order Kalman Filter, based on a simplification of the Singular Evolutive Extended Kalman (SEEK) filter equations, is used to assimilate observed fields of the surface wind stress, sea surface temperature and sea level into the nonlinear coupled ocean-atmosphere model of Zebiak and Cane. The SEEK filter projects the Kalman Filter equations onto a subspace defined by the eigenvalue decomposition of the error forecast matrix, allowing its application to high dimensional systems. The Zebiak and Cane model couples a linear reduced gravity ocean model with a single vertical mode atmospheric model of Zebiak. The compatibility between the simplified physics of the model and each observed variable is studied separately and together. The results show the ability of the model to represent the simultaneous value of the wind stress, SST and sea level, when the fields are limited to the latitude band 10 deg S - 10 deg N In this first application of the Kalman Filter to a coupled ocean-atmosphere prediction model, the sea level fields are assimilated in terms of the Kelvin and Rossby modes of the thermocline depth anomaly. An estimation of the error of these modes is derived from the projection of an estimation of the sea level error over such modes. This method gives a value of 12 for the error of the Kelvin amplitude, and 6 m of error for the Rossby component of the thermocline depth. The ability of the method to reconstruct the state of the equatorial Pacific and predict its time evolution is demonstrated. The method is shown to be quite robust for predictions up to six months, and able to predict the onset of the 1997 warm event fifteen months before its occurrence.

Ballabrera-Poy, J.↗

Characteristics of hingeless rotors with hub moment feedback controls including experimental rotor frequency response, Volume 1

Wind tunnel tests to determine the dynamic characteristics of hingeless rotors with hub moment feedback controls and to acquire experimental hingeless rotor transfer functions are discussed. Rotor transfer functions were calculated from data acquired during open loop frequency response tests. The transfer functions are linear and present the rotor longitudinal and lateral frequency responses to collective pitch, longitudinal cyclic pitch, and lateral cyclic pitch. The theoretical analysis was based on the rigid blade flapping model coupled with appropriate control system and cyclic pitch actuator equations of motion.

Kuczynski, W. A.↗

Measurement of the wave-normal vector of proton whistlers on Ogo 6.

Description of the first experimental determination of the wave-normal vector of proton whistlers in the ionosphere. Between the crossover frequency and the proton gyrofrequency, both right-hand and left-hand modes of propagation can occur for upgoing waves. Theoretically, the amount of energy in the respective modes depends on theta, the angle between the wave normal and the magnetic field. For proton whistlers with only left-hand mode energy between the crossover and proton gyrofrequency, theta ranged from 36 to 51 deg. For proton whistlers with strong right-hand and left-hand mode signals, theta ranged from 24 to 29 deg. The result is in good agreement with Wang's (1971) collisionless mode-coupling model. The angle between the wave normal and the vertical is found to increase with increasing altitude.

Chan, K. W.↗

Effects of contaminants in CO2 lasers.

A theoretical model which includes the effects of contaminants is developed for the high flow electric discharge CO2-N2-He laser. The model couples the excitation and relaxation processes, CO2 dissociation, and negative ion formation with the flow processes. An analysis of the effects of CO, O2, NO, and N2O impurities on the average small signal gain is presented. CO decreases the gain by collisional depopulation of the upper laser level, and O2, NO, and N2O reduce the gain by decreasing the electron density by forming stable negative ions. In particular, N2O exhibits a strong quenching effect because of its large dissociation cross section for the formation of O(-).

Smith, N. S.↗

Energy transfer from a pulsed thermal source to He II below 0.3 K.

Results of measurements of the angular distribution of the energy flux radiated from a pulsed heater immersed in He II at low temperatures (around 230 mK). It is shown that the energy transfer from a pulsed carbon heater at a relatively high temperature to ambient liquid helium maintained at low temperature cannot be adequately described by the phonon-coupling models. The experimental data on the velocity and angular distribution of the energy flux radiated from the plane of the heater indicate that the energy from the heater is transferred to a layer of hot helium adjacent to the surface of the heater and that this layer acts as the effective source of excitations radiated into the ambient liquid helium. The extent and shape of this source depend on the total energy flux produced by the heater.

Pfeifer, C. D.↗

Coupled base motion response analysis of payload structural systems

Coupled base motion response analysis of payload structural systems is discussed. A systems analysis program is described which by component analysis structural transient response analyses can be completed. The program presents a proven technique, used initially on the Skylab program, which is designed to reduce cost and schedule time on detail structural analyses of structural payload systems. Base motion procedures are employed where critical segments of complex structural systems or components may be analyzed for various load conditions without having to re-establish the entire structural system coupled model properties. The transient response characteristics of a complex structural system are used as a basis for evaluating the transient response of a similar system.

Devers, A. D.↗

The structure of W49 A as deduced from molecular and recombination line observations

The molecular cloud complex W49 A has been observed in the 2.6-mm CO line, the 2-cm H2CO line, and the H76-alpha recombination line. These observations are most consistent with a picture of the complex in which a large H II region lies between two massive molecular clouds. Using a simple hydrodynamic model coupled with calculations of radiative transfer in the recombination lines, it is found that many of the spectral-line and continuum observations obtained on this region can be naturally explained, including: (1) the multiple structure observed in the molecular lines and the single structure in the recombination lines; (2) the local standard of rest (LSR) velocities of both the molecular and recombination lines; (3) the velocity gradients observed in the lines; (4) the continuum emission from the H II region; and (5) the line widths and line-to-continuum ratios of the recombination lines.

Mufson, S. L.↗

Possible variations in atmospheric methane

A model coupling photochemistry and vertical transport in the troposphere has been used to investigate the magnitude of possible future perturbations to atmospheric CH4. The response of atmospheric CH4 to an increase in the concentration of CO or to a variation in stratospheric O3 is studied. Both of the above mechanisms, which could be caused by man's activities, arise because a change in the concentration of tropospheric OH will lead to a change in the CH4 abundance. The calculations imply that a perturbation of about 30-40% in atmospheric CH4 could occur if stratospheric O3 were perturbed by 10% or if man-made CO continued to increase. The possible consequences of a CH4 perturbation may entail a perturbation in stratospheric photochemistry or in the thermal balance of the atmosphere.

Chameides, W. L.↗

The calculated and observed ionospheric properties during Atmospheric Explorer-C satellite crossings over Millstone Hill

Results are presented for calculated and observed incoherent scatter radar data on ionospheric and atmospheric properties during the crossings of the Atmospheric Explorer-C satellite over the Millstone Hill, Massachusetts incoherent scatter radar station. The incoherent scatter radar measured electron density vertical profiles and electron and ion temperatures. These values yielded the exospheric temperature and the vertical distribution of neutral gas temperature. The satellite measured electron and ion temperatures and densities, neutral gas composition, and photoelectron spectra. Measurements were also made of solar UV and EUV fluxes, the vertical profile of the NO number density, and the vertical profile of the 6300 A airglow-volume emission rate. The results are compared to those of a time-dependent coupled model of the ionospheric E- and F-regions. Good agreement is found between satellite results, incoherent scatter radar measurements, and model calculations. Along the orbital path satellite measurements show significant latitudinal gradients in the measured properties.

Roble, R. G.↗