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NASA NTRS2013

PROcess Based Diagnostics PROBE

Many of the aspects of the climate system that are of the greatest interest (e.g., the sensitivity of the system to external forcings) are emergent properties that arise via the complex interplay between disparate processes. This is also true for climate models most diagnostics are not a function of an isolated portion of source code, but rather are affected by multiple components and procedures. Thus any model-observation mismatch is hard to attribute to any specific piece of code or imperfection in a specific model assumption. An alternative approach is to identify diagnostics that are more closely tied to specific processes -- implying that if a mismatch is found, it should be much easier to identify and address specific algorithmic choices that will improve the simulation. However, this approach requires looking at model output and observational data in a more sophisticated way than the more traditional production of monthly or annual mean quantities. The data must instead be filtered in time and space for examples of the specific process being targeted.We are developing a data analysis environment called PROcess-Based Explorer (PROBE) that seeks to enable efficient and systematic computation of process-based diagnostics on very large sets of data. In this environment, investigators can define arbitrarily complex filters and then seamlessly perform computations in parallel on the filtered output from their model. The same analysis can be performed on additional related data sets (e.g., reanalyses) thereby enabling routine comparisons between model and observational data. PROBE also incorporates workflow technology to automatically update computed diagnostics for subsequent executions of a model. In this presentation, we will discuss the design and current status of PROBE as well as share results from some preliminary use cases.

PROBE↗

NASA NTRS2022

Constraining Arctic Climate Projections of Wintertime Warming With Surface Turbulent Flux Observations and Representation of Surface-Atmosphere Coupling

The drivers of rapid Arctic climate change—record sea ice loss, warming SSTs, and a lengthening of the sea ice melt season—compel us to understand how this complex system operates and use this knowledge to enhance Arctic predictability. Changing energy flows sparked by sea ice decline, spotlight atmosphere-surface coupling processes as central to Arctic system function and its climate change response. Despite this, the representation of surface turbulent flux parameterizations in models has not kept pace with our understanding. The large uncertainty in Arctic climate change projections, the central role of atmosphere-surface coupling, and the large discrepancy in model representation of surface turbulent fluxes indicates that these processes may serve as useful observational constraints on projected Arctic climate change. This possibility requires an evaluation of surface turbulent fluxes and their sensitivity to controlling factors (surface-air temperature and moisture differences, sea ice, and winds) within contemporary climate models (here Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6). The influence of individual controlling factors and their interactions is diagnosed using a multi-linear regression approach. This evaluation is done for four sea ice loss regimes, determined from observational sea ice loss trends, to control for the confounding effects of natural variability between models and observations. The comparisons between satellite- and model-derived surface turbulent fluxes illustrate that while models capture the general sensitivity of surface turbulent fluxes to declining sea ice and to surface-air gradients of temperature and moisture, substantial mean state biases exist. Specifically, the central Arctic is too weak of a heat sink to the winter atmosphere compared to observations, with implications to the simulated atmospheric circulation variability and thermodynamic profiles. Models were found to be about 50% more efficient at turning an air-sea temperature gradient anomaly into a sensible heat flux anomaly relative to observations. Further, the influence of sea ice concentration on the sensible heat flux is underestimated in models compared to observations. The opposite is found for the latent heat flux variability in models; where the latent heat flux is too sensitive to a sea ice concentration anomaly. Lastly, the results suggest that present-day trends in sea ice retreat regions may serve as suitable observational constraints of projected Arctic warming.

turbulent fluxes↗

NASA NTRS2018

Climate Modeling of a Potential ExoVenus

The planetary mass and radius sensitivity of exoplanet discovery capabilities has reached into the terrestrial regime. The focus of such investigations is to search within the Habitable Zone where a modern Earth-like atmosphere maybe a viable comparison. However, the detection bias of the transit and radial velocity methods lies close to the host star where the received flux at the planet may push the atmosphere into a runaway greenhouse state. One such exoplanet discovery, Kepler-1649b, receives a similar flux from its star as modern Venus does from the Sun, and so was categorized as a possible exoVenus. Here we discuss the planetary parameters of Kepler-1649b in relation to Venus to establish its potential as a Venus analog. We utilize the general circulation model ROCKE-3D (Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics) to simulate the evolution of the surface temperature of Kepler-1649b under various assumptions, including relative atmospheric abundances. We show that in all our simulations the atmospheric model rapidly diverges from temperate surface conditions toward a runaway greenhouse with rapidly escalating surface temperatures. We calculate transmission spectra for the evolved atmosphere and discuss these spectra within the context of the James Webb Space Telescope Near-Infrared Spectrograph capabilities. We thus demonstrate the detectability of the key atmospheric signatures of possible runaway greenhouse transition states and outline the future prospects of characterizing potential Venus analogs.

Astrobiology↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Modeling the Water Cycle With the NASA Ames FV3-Based Mars Global Climate Model

It is widely recognized that water ice clouds critically affect the current weather and climate of Mars. Simulating clouds and the water cycle in climate models remains challenging, however, due to the highly sensitive nature of cloud formation to several microphysical parameters that are not well known for Mars and the strong radiative feedbacks that can occur. We have recently ported our cloud microphysics package from the NASA Ames Legacy Mars Global Climate Model (MGCM) to our new MGCM based on the NOAA/GFDL cubed-sphere finite volume (FV3) dynamical core. Here we report on the status of our water cycle simulations and show how our reference simulation compares to observations.

M A Kahre↗

NASA NTRS2023

The Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (RAMIP)

Changes in anthropogenic aerosol emissions have strongly contributed to global and regional trends in temperature, precipitation, and other climate characteristics and have been one of the dominant drivers of decadal trends in Asian and African precipitation. These and other influences on regional climate from changes in aerosol emissions are expected to continue and potentially strengthen in the coming decades. However, a combination of large uncertainties in emission pathways, radiative forcing, and the dynamical response to forcing makes anthropogenic aerosol a key factor in the spread of near-term climate projections, particularly on regional scales, and therefore an important one to constrain. For example, in terms of future emission pathways, the uncertainty in future global aerosol and precursor gas emissions by 2050 is as large as the total increase in emissions since 1850. In terms of aerosol effective radiative forcing, which remains the largest source of uncertainty in future climate change projections, CMIP6 models span a factor of 5, from −0.3 to −1.5 W m−2. Both of these sources of uncertainty are exacerbated on regional scales. The Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (RAMIP) will deliver experiments designed to quantify the role of regional aerosol emissions changes in near-term projections. This is unlike any prior MIP, where the focus has been on changes in global emissions and/or very idealised aerosol experiments. Perturbing regional emissions makes RAMIP novel from a scientific standpoint and links the intended analyses more directly to mitigation and adaptation policy issues. From a science perspective, there is limited information on how realistic regional aerosol emissions impact local as well as remote climate conditions. Here, RAMIP will enable an evaluation of the full range of potential influences of realistic and regionally varied aerosol emission changes on near-future climate. From the policy perspective, RAMIP addresses the burning question of how local and remote decisions affecting emissions of aerosols influence climate change in any given region. Here, RAMIP will provide the information needed to make direct links between regional climate policies and regional climate change. RAMIP experiments are designed to explore sensitivities to aerosol type and location and provide improved constraints on uncertainties driven by aerosol radiative forcing and the dynamical response to aerosol changes. The core experiments will assess the effects of differences in future global and regional (Africa and the Middle East, East Asia, North America and Europe, and South Asia) aerosol emission trajectories through 2051, while optional experiments will test the nonlinear effects of varying emission locations and aerosol types along this future trajectory. All experiments are based on the shared socioeconomic pathways and are intended to be performed with 6th Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) generation models, initialised from the CMIP6 historical experiments, to facilitate comparisons with existing projections. Requested outputs will enable the analysis of the role of aerosol in near-future changes in, for example, temperature and precipitation means and extremes, storms, and air quality.

anthropogenic aerosol emissions↗

NASA NTRS2016

Regional Atmospheric CO2 Inversion Reveals Seasonal and Geographic Differences in Amazon Net Biome Exchange

Understanding tropical rainforest carbon exchange and its response to heat and drought is critical for quantifying the effects of climate change on tropical ecosystems, including global climate carbon feedbacks. Of particular importance for the global carbon budget is net biome exchange of CO2 with the atmosphere (NBE), which represents nonfire carbon fluxes into and out of biomass and soils. Subannual and sub-Basin Amazon NBE estimates have relied heavily on process-based biosphere models, despite lack of model agreement with plot-scale observations. We present a new analysis of airborne measurements that reveals monthly, regional-scale (Approx.1-8 x 10(exp -6) km2) NBE variations. We develop a regional atmospheric CO2 inversion that provides the first analysis of geographic and temporal variability in Amazon biosphere-atmosphere carbon exchange and that is minimally influenced by biosphere model-based first guesses of seasonal and annual mean fluxes. We find little evidence for a clear seasonal cycle in Amazon NBE but do find NBE sensitivity to aberrations from long-term mean climate. In particular, we observe increased NBE (more carbon emitted to the atmosphere) associated with heat and drought in 2010, and correlations between wet season NBE and precipitation (negative correlation) and temperature (positive correlation). In the eastern Amazon, pulses of increased NBE persisted through 2011, suggesting legacy effects of 2010 heat and drought. We also identify regional differences in postdrought NBE that appear related to long-term water availability. We examine satellite proxies and find evidence for higher gross primary productivity (GPP) during a pulse of increased carbon uptake in 2011, and lower GPP during a period of increased NBE in the 2010 dry season drought, but links between GPP and NBE changes are not conclusive. These results provide novel evidence of NBE sensitivity to short-term temperature and moisture extremes in the Amazon, where monthly and sub-Basin estimates have not been previously available.

precipitation↗

NASA NTRS2012

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and Pilot Studies

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a major international effort linking the climate, crop, and economic modeling communities with cutting-edge information technology to produce improved crop and economic models and the next generation of climate impact projections for the agricultural sector. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. Analyses of the agricultural impacts of climate variability and change require a transdisciplinary effort to consistently link state-of-the-art climate scenarios to crop and economic models. Crop model outputs are aggregated as inputs to regional and global economic models to determine regional vulnerabilities, changes in comparative advantage, price effects, and potential adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector. Climate, Crop Modeling, Economics, and Information Technology Team Protocols are presented to guide coordinated climate, crop modeling, economics, and information technology research activities around the world, along with AgMIP Cross-Cutting Themes that address uncertainty, aggregation and scaling, and the development of Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) to enable testing of climate change adaptations in the context of other regional and global trends. The organization of research activities by geographic region and specific crops is described, along with project milestones. Pilot results demonstrate AgMIP's role in assessing climate impacts with explicit representation of uncertainties in climate scenarios and simulations using crop and economic models. An intercomparison of wheat model simulations near Obregón, Mexico reveals inter-model differences in yield sensitivity to [CO2] with model uncertainty holding approximately steady as concentrations rise, while uncertainty related to choice of crop model increases with rising temperatures. Wheat model simulations with midcentury climate scenarios project a slight decline in absolute yields that is more sensitive to selection of crop model than to global climate model, emissions scenario, or climate scenario downscaling method. A comparison of regional and national-scale economic simulations finds a large sensitivity of projected yield changes to the simulations' resolved scales. Finally, a global economic model intercomparison example demonstrates that improvements in the understanding of agriculture futures arise from integration of the range of uncertainty in crop, climate, and economic modeling results in multi-model assessments.

Rosenzweig, C.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Benchmark Data Set for Wheat Growth Models: Field Experiments and AgMIP Multi-Model Simulations.

The data set includes a current representative management treatment from detailed, quality-tested sentinel field experiments with wheat from four contrasting environments including Australia, The Netherlands, India and Argentina. Measurements include local daily climate data (solar radiation, maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, surface wind, dew point temperature, relative humidity, and vapor pressure), soil characteristics, frequent growth, nitrogen in crop and soil, crop and soil water and yield components. Simulations include results from 27 wheat models and a sensitivity analysis with 26 models and 30 years (1981-2010) for each location, for elevated atmospheric CO2 and temperature changes, a heat stress sensitivity analysis at anthesis, and a sensitivity analysis with soil and crop management variations and a Global Climate Model end-century scenario.

climate change impact↗

NASA NTRS2013

Modeling Insights into Deuterium Excess as an Indicator of Water Vapor Source Conditions

Deuterium excess (d) is interpreted in conventional paleoclimate reconstructions as a tracer of oceanic source region conditions, such as temperature, where precipitation originates. Previous studies have adopted co-isotopic approaches to estimate past changes in both site and oceanic source temperatures for ice core sites using empirical relationships derived from conceptual distillation models, particularly Mixed Cloud Isotopic Models (MCIMs). However, the relationship between d and oceanic surface conditions remains unclear in past contexts. We investigate this climate-isotope relationship for sites in Greenland and Antarctica using multiple simulations of the water isotope-enabled Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE-R general circulation model and apply a novel suite of model vapor source distribution (VSD) tracers to assess d as a proxy for source temperature variability under a range of climatic conditions. Simulated average source temperatures determined by the VSDs are compared to synthetic source temperature estimates calculated using MCIM equations linking d to source region conditions. We show that although deuterium excess is generally a faithful tracer of source temperatures as estimated by the MCIM approach, large discrepancies in the isotope-climate relationship occur around Greenland during the Last Glacial Maximum simulation, when precipitation seasonality and moisture source regions were notably different from present. This identified sensitivity in d as a source temperature proxy suggests that quantitative climate reconstructions from deuterium excess should be treated with caution for some sites when boundary conditions are significantly different from the present day. Also, the exclusion of the influence of humidity and other evaporative source changes in MCIM regressions may be a limitation of quantifying source temperature fluctuations from deuterium excess in some instances.

simulation↗

NASA NTRS2018

Climate Modeling of a Potential Exovenus

The planetary mass and radius sensitivity of exoplanet discovery capabilities has reached into the terrestrial regime. The focus of such investigations is to search within the Habitable Zone where a modern Earth-like atmosphere may be a viable comparison. However, the detection bias of the transit and radial velocity methods lies close to the host star where the received flux at the planet may push the atmosphere into a runaway greenhouse state. One such exoplanet discovery, Kepler-1649b, receives a similar flux from its star as modern Venus does from the Sun, and so was categorized as a possible exoVenus. Here we discuss the planetary parameters of Kepler-1649b in relation to Venus to establish its potential as a Venus analog. We utilize the general circulation model ROCKE-3D to simulate the evolution of the surface temperature of Kepler-1649b under various assumptions, including relative atmospheric abundances. We show that in all our simulations the atmospheric model rapidly diverges from temperate surface conditions toward a runaway greenhouse with rapidly escalating surface temperatures. We calculate transmission spectra for the evolved atmosphere and discuss these spectra within the context of the James Webb Space Telescope Near-Infrared Spectrograph capabilities. We thus demonstrate the detectability of the key atmospheric signatures of possible runaway greenhouse transition states and outline the future prospects of characterizing potential Venus analogs.

Astrobiology↗

NASA NTRS2005

A Note on the Relationship between Temperature and Water Vapor in Quasi-Equilibrium and Climate States

An ideal and simple formulation is successfully derived that well represents a quasi-linear relationship found between the domain-averaged water vapor, q (mm), and temperature, T (K), fields obtained from a series of quasi-equilibrium (long-term) simulations for the Tropics using the two-dimensional Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model. Earlier model work showed that the forced maintenance of two different wind profiles in the Tropics leads to two different equilibrium states. Investigating this finding required investigation of the slope of the moisture-temperature relations, which turns out to be linear in the Tropics. The extra-tropical climate equilibriums become more complex, but insight on modeling sensitivity can be obtained by linear stepwise regression of the integrated temperature and humidity. A globally curvilinear moisture-temperature distribution, similar to the famous Clausius-Clapeyron curve (i.e., saturated water vapor pressure versus temperature), is then found in this study. Such a genuine finding clarifies that the dynamics are crucial to the climate (shown in the earlier work) but the thermodynamics adjust. The range of validity of this result is further examined herein. The GCE-modeled tropical domain-averaged q and T fields form a linearly-regressed "q-T" slope that genuinely resides within an ideal range of slopes obtained from the aforementioned formulation. A quantity (denoted as dC2/dC1) representing the derivative between the static energy densities due to temperature (C2) and water vapor (C1) for various quasi-equilibrium states can also be obtained. A dC2/dC1 value near unity obtained for the GCE-modeled tropical simulations implies that the static energy densities due to moisture and temperature only differ by a pure constant for various equilibrium states. An overall q-T relation also including extra-tropical regions is, however, found to have a curvilinear relationship. Accordingly, warm/moist regions favor change in water vapor faster than temperature, while cold/dry regions favor an increase in temperature quicker than water vapor.

Shie, C.-L.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Ocean modelling on the CYBER 205 at GFDL

At the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, research is carried out for the purpose of understanding various aspects of climate, such as its variability, predictability, stability and sensitivity. The atmosphere and oceans are modelled mathematically and their phenomenology studied by computer simulation methods. The present state-of-the-art in the computer simulation of large scale oceans on the CYBER 205 is discussed. While atmospheric modelling differs in some aspects, the basic approach used is similar. The equations of the ocean model are presented along with a short description of the numerical techniques used to find their solution. Computational considerations and a typical solution are presented in section 4.

Cox, M.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Aerosol Radiative Forcing in Asian Continental Outflow

Aerosols in elevated layers were sampled with FSSP-probes and wire impactors over the Pacific ocean aboard the NASA DC-8 aircraft. Analyses of particle size and morphology identifies two distinctly different aerosol types for cases when the mid-visible extinctions exceed 0.2/km. Smaller sizes (effective radii of 0.2 um) and moderate absorption (mid-visible single scattering albedo of.935) are typical for urban-industrial pollution. Larger sizes (effective radii of 0.7 um) and weak absorption (mid-visible single scattering albedo of 0.985) identify dust. This aerosol classification is in agreement with its origin as determined by airmass back trajectory analysis. Based on lidar vertical profiling, aerosol dominated by dust and urban-industrial pollution above 3km were assigned mid-visible optical depths of 0.50 and 0.27, respectively. Radiative transfer simulations, considering a 50% cloud-cover below the aerosol layers, suggest (on a daily tP C)C> basis) small reductions (-4W/m2) to the energy budget at the top of the atmosphere for both aerosol types. For c' 0 dust, more backscattering of sunlight (weaker solar absorption) is compensated by a stronger greenhouse effect due to larger sizes. Forced reductions to the energy budget at the surface are 12W/m2 for both aerosol types. In contrast, impacts on heating rates within the aerosol layers are quite different: While urban-industrial aerosol warms the layer (at +0.6K/day as solar heating dominates), dust cools (at -0.5K/day as infrared cooling dominates). Sensitivity tests show the dependence of the aerosol climatic impact on the optical depth, particle size, absorptivity, and altitude of the layers, as well as clouds and surface properties. Climatic cooling can be eliminated (1) for the urban-industrial aerosol if absorption is increased to yield a mid-visible single scattering albedo of 0.89, or if the ocean is replaced by a land surface; (2) for the dust aerosol if the effective radius is increased from 0.7 to 1.2 um. The removal of low-level clouds doubles the cooling at the top of the atmosphere to about -8W/m2.

Pueschel, R.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Simple and Multiple Endmember Mixture Analysis in the Boreal Forest

Roberts, Dar A.↗

NASA NTRS2001

AVIRIS Land-Surface Mapping in Support of the Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS)

A key scientific objective of the original Boreal Ecosystem-Atmospheric Study (BOREAS) field campaign (1993-1996) was to obtain the baseline data required for modeling and predicting fluxes of energy, mass, and trace gases in the boreal forest biome. These data sets are necessary to determine the sensitivity of the boreal forest biome to potential climatic changes and potential biophysical feedbacks on climate. A considerable volume of remotely-sensed and supporting field data were acquired by numerous researchers to meet this objective. By design, remote sensing and modeling were considered critical components for scaling efforts, extending point measurements from flux towers and field sites over larger spatial and longer temporal scales. A major focus of the BOREAS follow-on program is concerned with integrating the diverse remotely sensed and ground-based data sets to address specific questions such as carbon dynamics at local to regional scales. The Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) has the potential of contributing to BOREAS through: (1) accurate retrieved apparent surface reflectance; (2) improved landcover classification; and (3) direct assessment of biochemical/biophysical information such as canopy liquid water and chlorophyll concentration through pigment fits. In this paper, we present initial products for major flux tower sites including: (1) surface reflectance of dominant cover types; (2) a land-cover classification developed using spectral mixture analysis (SMA) and Multiple Endmember Spectral Mixture Analysis (MESMA); and (3) liquid water maps. Our goal is to compare these land-cover maps to existing maps and to incorporate AVIRIS image products into models of photosynthetic flux.

Roberts, Dar A.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Radiative Forcing of the Lower Stratosphere over the Arctic by Light Absorbing Particles

Light absorbing particles (LAP), such as soot and dust, change the thermodynamic structure of the atmosphere and contribute to regional and global climate change. The lower stratosphere (LS) is particularly sensitive to the presence of LAP since the lifetime of particles in the LS may extend from months to years, in contrast to tropospheric lifetimes of at most a few days. The source of particles in the LS may be aircraft, meteorites or emissions from tropospheric sources. There has been a lack, however, of accurate, quantitative measurements made with sufficiently sensitive instruments. This limits our understanding of the origin and lifetime of aerosols in this region of the atmosphere. Here we present recent measurements in the Arctic UT/LS with a new, highly sensitive instrument that has detected black carbon (BC) mass concentrations of 20-1000 ng m(exp -3) that are 10-1000 times larger than those reported in previous studies and are at least 30 times larger than predicted masses based on fuel consumption by commercial aircraft that fly in these regions. Scattering and absorption of solar and terrestrial radiation by the particles in a layer from 8- 12 Km leads to a negative net forcing of -0.5 W sq m at the top of the atmosphere and 9C of heating in this layer during the average aerosol lifetime at these altitudes. The new measurements suggest that the influence of aircraft emissions have been underestimated or that aircraft may not be the only significant source of light absorbing particles in the UT/LS. The presence of these aerosols can cause local changes in the thermal structure of the lower stratosphere and a subsequent modification of stratosphere/tropopause exchange of gases and particles.

Baumgardner, D.↗

NASA NTRS2004

In-situ Observations of Mid-latitude Forest Fire Plumes Deep in the Stratosphere

We observed a plume of air highly enriched in carbon monoxide and particles in the stratosphere at altitudes up to 15.8 km. It can be unambiguously attributed to North American forest fires. This plume demonstrates an extratropical direct transport path from the planetary boundary layer several kilometers deep into the stratosphere, which is not fully captured by large-scale atmospheric transport models. This process indicates that the stratospheric ozone layer could be sensitive to changes in forest burning associated with climatic warming.

Jost, Hans-Juerg↗

NASA NTRS2003

Ultraspectral Infrared Measurements from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on the EOS Aqua Spacecraft

Aqua measures the Earth's water cycle, energy fluxes, vegetation and temperatures. The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) and Humidity Sounder for Brazil (HSB) were launched on the EOS Aqua spacecraft in May 2002. AIRS has had good radiometric and spectral sensitivity, stability, and accuracy and is suitable for climate studies. Temperature products compare well with radiosondes and models over the limited test range (|LAT| less than 40 degrees). Early trace gas products demonstrate the potential of AIRS. NASA is developing the next generation of hyperspectral IR imagers. JPL is ready to participate with US government agencies and US industry to transfer AIRS technology and science experience.

infrared↗