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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 433 records · Page 24
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Sediment transport and morphodynamic changes due to upstream variation and sea level rise on the Western Mekong Delta, Vietnam

The hydrological and morphological dynamics across the Vietnam Mekong Delta (VMD) coastline are increasingly shaped by human interventions and climate change, affecting the sustainability of socio-economic environments. This study employs the TELEMAC-MASCARET modeling system (TELEMAC-2D, TOMAWAC, and SISYPHE modules) to simulate hydrodynamics, sediment transport, and morphological changes for a 10-year period under baseline (SC1) and future climate (SC2) scenarios, considering wave climatology of Northeast (NEM) and Southwest monsoons (SWM). The results of sedimentation and erosion were analyzed across five key coastal zones from Ca Mau Cape (KV1) to Ha Tien (KV5). Model results highlight distinct seasonal patterns of sediment redistribution shaped by monsoonal flows, wave action, and seabed morphology. During the NEM, sediment deposition is concentrated near estuarine zones, while the SWM favors offshore sediment accumulation due to perpendicular wave actions, and shallow, gently sloping bathymetry that dissipates wave energy. Coastal erosion predominantly occurs at convex shoreline features subjected to stronger coastal currents, particularly in fine-grained sediment areas. Under future sea level rise and land subsidence scenarios, reduced flow velocities lead to lower bottom shear stress, promoting deposition and mitigating erosion problems despite increased wave energy. Besides that, sediment transport analyses across 14 cross-sections (C-S) reveal a southward trend during the NEM and a northward reversal during the SWM, with upstream sediment reductions primarily influencing near-estuarine zones and exerting minimal impact beyond the mid-coastal regions. Furthermore, these findings advance the understanding of sediment redistribution processes under climate change and seasonal change, and provide a scientific basis for adaptive coastal management and sustainable development.

Climate change↗
DOE OSTI2025

Near-term heatwave risk in HighResMIP models across different temperature zones of West Africa

This study projects near-future (2031–2050) changes in heatwave (HW) risk across West Africa (WA) using an ensemble of eight high-resolution global climate models from the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project under a high-emission scenario. Using K-means clustering, we divided WA into four unique temperature zones and examined projected changes in extreme temperatures, HW occurrence and magnitude. Our results indicate a statistically significant increase in future HW events across most parts of WA, although considerable spread exists over the region and among individual models. The most pronounced increases are evident in the Sahel/Sahara and the Guinea Highlands subregions, with an ensemble mean increase of ∼10 HW events per year. In contrast, the lowest increase in HW events is projected in central WA, with increases ranging between 1 and 5 events per year. Similarly, the magnitude of HW events is projected to increase in most models, with Sahel/Sahara exhibiting the largest increases. Additionally, projections suggest that the strongest HWs will become more frequent, particularly in northern and southwestern WA. These findings highlight significant spatial heterogeneity in future HW risk across WA, emphasizing the need for targeted adaptation strategies.

HighResMIP↗
DOE OSTI2021

Biogeochemical control points of connectivity between a tidal creek and its floodplain

As global climates shift, coastal systems experience changes that alter function within the tidal zone. However, it remains uncertain how changes in tidal extent and magnitude will alter coastal biogeochemical cycling. We present high-frequency data collected in-situ along two transects across a tidal creek and floodplain to capture how changes in vertical and lateral connectivity act as biogeochemical control points. Using wavelet analysis, we identified short periods of strong vertical connectivity during spring tides followed by extended periods of floodplain isolation from tides. During a drier period, neap tides were linked to lateral creek-floodplain connectivity, detected by discharge of saline, oxygen-depleted groundwater to the creek on ebb tides. We estimate up to half of creek water throughout the tidal cycle was associated with floodplain drainage. From point measurements of carbon, nitrogen, and greenhouse gases along the creek-floodplain transect, we infer that lateral connectivity functions as a biogeochemically significant control point.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Population structure limits the use of genomic data for predicting phenotypes and managing genetic resources in forest trees

There is overwhelming evidence that forest trees are locally adapted to climate. Thus, genecological models based on population phenotypes have been used to measure local adaptation, infer genetic maladaptation to climate, and guide assisted migration. However, instead of phenotypes, there is increasing interest in using genomic data for gene resource management. We used whole-genome resequencing and common-garden experiments to understand the genetic architecture of adaptive traits in black cottonwood. We studied the potential of using genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and genomic prediction to detect causal loci, identify climate-adapted phenotypes, and inform gene resource management. We analyzed population structure by partitioning phenotypic and genomic (single-nucleotide polymorphism) variation among 840 genotypes collected from 91 stands along 16 rivers. Most phenotypic variation (60 to 81%) occurred among populations and was strongly associated with climate. Population phenotypes were predicted well using genomic data (e.g., predictive abilityr> 0.9) but almost as well using climate or geography (r> 0.8). In contrast, genomic prediction within populations was poor (r< 0.2). We identified many GWAS associations among populations, but most appeared to be spurious based on pooled within-population analyses. Hierarchical partitioning of linkage disequilibrium and haplotype sharing suggested that within-population genomic prediction and GWAS were poor because allele frequencies of causal loci and linked markers differed among populations. Given the urgent need to conserve natural populations and ecosystems, our results suggest that climate variables alone can be used to predict population phenotypes, delineate seed zones and deployment zones, and guide assisted migration.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Geographic patterns of genomic diversity and structure in the C4 grass Panicum hallii across its natural distribution

Abstract Geographic patterns of within-species genomic diversity are shaped by evolutionary processes, life history and historical and contemporary factors. New genomic approaches can be used to infer the influence of such factors on the current distribution of infraspecific lineages. In this study, we evaluated the genomic and morphological diversity as well as the genetic structure of the C4 grass Panicum hallii across its complex natural distribution in North America. We sampled extensively across the natural range of P. hallii in Mexico and the USA to generate double-digestion restriction-associated DNA (ddRAD) sequence data for 423 individuals from 118 localities. We used these individuals to study the divergence between the two varieties of P. hallii, P. hallii var. filipes and P. hallii var. hallii as well as the genetic diversity and structure within these groups. We also examined the possibility of admixture in the geographically sympatric zone shared by both varieties, and assessed distribution shifts related with past climatic fluctuations. There is strong genetic and morphological divergence between the varieties and consistent genetic structure defining seven genetic clusters that follow major ecoregions across the range. South Texas constitutes a hotspot of genetic diversity with the co-occurrence of all genetic clusters and admixture between the two varieties. It is likely a recolonization and convergence point of populations that previously diverged in isolation during fragmentation events following glaciation periods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Effect of an Equatorial Continent on the Tropical Rain Belt. Part 1: Annual Mean Changes in the ITCZ

The TRACMIP (Tropical Rain Belts with an Annual Cycle and Continent Model Intercomparison Project) ensemble includes slab-ocean aquaplanet controls and experiments with a highly idealized tropical continent, characterized by modified aquaplanet grid cells with increased evaporative resistance, increased albedo, reduced heat capacity, and no ocean heat transport (zero Q-flux). In the annual mean, an equatorial cold tongue develops west of the continent and induces dry anomalies and a split in the oceanic intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Ocean cooling is initiated by advection of cold, dry air from the winter portion of the continent; warm, humid anomalies in the summer portion are restricted to the continent by anomalous surface convergence. The surface energy budget suggests that ocean cooling persists and intensifies because of a positive feedback between a colder surface, drier and colder air, reduced downwelling longwave (LW) flux, and enhanced net surface LW cooling (LW feedback). A feedback between wind, evaporation, and SST (so-called WES feedback) also contributes to the establishment and maintenance of the cold tongue. Simulations with a gray-radiation model and simulations that diverge from protocol (with negligible winter cooling) confirm the importance of moist-radiative feedbacks and of rectification effects on the seasonal cycle. This mechanism coupling the continental and oceanic climate might be relevant to the double ITCZ bias. The key role of the LW feedback suggests that the study of interactions between monsoons and oceanic ITCZs requires full-physics models and a hierarchy of land models that considers evaporative processes alongside heat capacity as a defining characteristic of land.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Understanding water and energy fluxes in the Amazonia: Lessons from an observation‐model intercomparison

Abstract Tropical forests are an important part of global water and energy cycles, but the mechanisms that drive seasonality of their land‐atmosphere exchanges have proven challenging to capture in models. Here, we (1) report the seasonality of fluxes of latent heat (LE), sensible heat ( H ), and outgoing short and longwave radiation at four diverse tropical forest sites across Amazonia—along the equator from the Caxiuanã and Tapajós National Forests in the eastern Amazon to a forest near Manaus, and from the equatorial zone to the southern forest in Reserva Jaru; (2) investigate how vegetation and climate influence these fluxes; and (3) evaluate land surface model performance by comparing simulations to observations. We found that previously identified failure of models to capture observed dry‐season increases in evapotranspiration (ET) was associated with model overestimations of (1) magnitude and seasonality of Bowen ratios (relative to aseasonal observations in which sensible was only 20%–30% of the latent heat flux) indicating model exaggerated water limitation, (2) canopy emissivity and reflectance (albedo was only 10%–15% of incoming solar radiation, compared to 0.15%–0.22% simulated), and (3) vegetation temperatures (due to underestimation of dry‐season ET and associated cooling). These partially compensating model‐observation discrepancies (e.g., higher temperatures expected from excess Bowen ratios were partially ameliorated by brighter leaves and more interception/evaporation) significantly biased seasonal model estimates of net radiation ( R n ), the key driver of water and energy fluxes (LE ~ 0.6 R n and H ~ 0.15 R n ), though these biases varied among sites and models. A better representation of energy‐related parameters associated with dynamic phenology (e.g., leaf optical properties, canopy interception, and skin temperature) could improve simulations and benchmarking of current vegetation–atmosphere exchange and reduce uncertainty of regional and global biogeochemical models.

Restrepo‐Coupe, Natalia↗
DOE OSTI2024

Effects of spatial variability in vegetation phenology, climate, landcover, biodiversity, topography, and soil property on soil respiration across a coastal ecosystem

Coastal terrestrial-aquatic interfaces (TAIs) are crucial contributors to global biogeochemical cycles and carbon exchange. A systematic evaluation of the interaction between coastal catchment properties and carbon dioxide (CO2) emission by soil respiration is significant for assessing carbon dynamics and predicting the future trajectory of atmospheric CO2 concentrations in coastal TAIs. The soil CO2 efflux in these transition zones is however poorly understood due to the high spatiotemporal dynamics of TAIs, as various sub-ecosystems in this region are compressed and expanded by complex influences of tides, changes in river levels, climate, and land use. We focus on the Chesapeake Bay region to (i) investigate the spatial heterogeneity of the coastal ecosystem and identify spatial zones with similar environmental characteristics based on the spatial data layers, including vegetation index (kNDVI), climate, landcover, diversity, topography, soil property, and relative tidal elevation; (ii) understand the primary driving factors affecting soil respiration within sub-ecosystems of the coastal ecosystem. Specifically, we employed hierarchical clustering analysis to identify spatial regions with distinct environmental characteristics, followed by the determination of main driving factors using Random Forest regression and SHapley Additive exPlanations. Maximum and minimum temperature are the main drivers common to all sub-ecosystems, while each region also has additional unique major drivers that differentiate them from one another. Precipitation exerts an influence on vegetated lands, while soil pH value holds importance specifically in forested lands. In croplands characterized by high clay content and low sand content, the significant role is attributed to bulk density. Wetlands demonstrate the importance of both elevation and sand content, with clay content being more relevant in non-inundated wetlands than in inundated wetlands. The topographic wetness index significantly contributes to the mixed vegetation areas, including shrub, grass, pasture, and forest. Additionally, our research reveals that dense vegetation land covers and urban/developed areas exhibit distinct soil property drivers. Overall, there is no one-size-fits-all approach to modeling carbon fluxes in coastal TAIs, and our study highlights the importance of further research and monitoring practices to improve our understanding of carbon dynamics and promote the sustainable management of coastal TAIs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling commercial-scale CO 2 storage in the gas hydrate stability zone with PFLOTRAN v6.0

Abstract. Safe and secure carbon dioxide (CO2) storage is likely to be critical for mitigating some of the most dangerous effects of climate change. In the last decade, there has been a significant increase in activity associated with reservoir characterization and site selection for large-scale CO2 storage projects across the globe. These prospective storage sites tend to be selected for their optimal structural, petrophysical, and geochemical trapping potential. However, it has also been suggested that storing CO2 in reservoirs within the CO2 hydrate stability zone (GHSZ), characterized by high pressures and low temperatures (e.g., Arctic or marine environments), could provide a natural thermodynamic barrier to gas leakage. Evaluating the prospect of commercial-scale, long-term storage of CO2 in the GHSZ requires reservoir-scale modeling capabilities designed to account for the unique physics and thermodynamics associated with these systems. We have developed the HYDRATE flow mode and the accompanying fully implicit parallel well model in the massively parallel subsurface flow and reactive transport simulator PFLOTRAN to model CO2 injection into the marine GHSZ. We have applied these capabilities to a set of CO2 injection scenarios designed to reveal the challenges and opportunities for commercial-scale CO2 storage in the GHSZ.

carbon storage↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling and analysis of heat emissions from buildings to ambient air

Heat emissions from buildings is a significant source of anthropogenic heat influencing the urban microclimate; however, they are usually oversimplified in urban climate and microclimate modeling. This study developed a bottom-up physics-based approach to calculate heat emissions from buildings to the ambient air and implemented the approach in EnergyPlus. In this work, a simple result verification was conducted by comparing the EnergyPlus simulated results against the spreadsheet calculations. Simulations covering 16 commercial building types, four climates, and two energy efficiency levels were conducted to understand and evaluate the building heat emissions and their temporal patterns as well as three major components: (1) building envelope (convective heat transfer to ambient air), (2) zones (air exfiltration and exhaust air), and (3) HVAC systems (relief air and heat rejection from condensers or cooling towers). The main findings are: (1) heat emissions are usually higher than the site energy use (about 2.5 times), and their dynamics should be considered; (2) building characteristics and their energy systems lead to differences in heat emission contributions from the three components, and their dynamics, for example, in the warehouse models, the envelope component accounts for 90.4%, while it is 12.7% for the large office models; (3) for most building typologies, the climate has a strong impact on heat emissions, for example, buildings with dominant heat emissions from the zone exhaust air and/or the HVAC reject heat, a general decrease in heat emissions in hotter climates is observed, while envelope-dominated buildings show the opposite; and (4) building technologies that reduce energy use in buildings may perform differently in reducing heat emissions. The developed heat emissions calculation method can be adopted in EnergyPlus and most other building energy modeling programs. It can provide dynamic building heat emissions as an input to urban climate computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models at a higher spatial and temporal resolution than is currently available, to improve the simulation accuracy of the urban microclimate and capture the urban heat island effect and urban overheating.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Clusters of Regional Precipitation Seasonality Change in the Community Earth System Model, Version 2

Abstract The likely changes to precipitation seasonality with warming are both impactful and not well understood. This work aims to describe areas that experience similar changes to seasonal precipitation irrespective of the original underlying precipitation seasonality. We train a self-organizing map on the difference between the seasonal cycle of precipitation in the past and in a high-warming future climate as represented by the Community Earth System Model, version 2, to create regions with similar changes in precipitation seasonality. This method is applied separately over land and ocean surfaces because of the differing processes leading to precipitation over each. This method indicates that future changes in seasonal precipitation are most varied in the tropics because of a southward shift in the intertropical convergence zone. The seasonal shifts found over midlatitude oceans indicate a poleward shift in atmospheric river activity. We find a correspondence between certain land-based precipitation changes and Köppen climate classification. The seasonality of large-scale and convective precipitation is examined for each region. The relationship between the seasonal changes to precipitation and associated atmospheric processes is discussed. These processes include atmospheric rivers, the intertropical convergence zone, tropical cyclones, and monsoons.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing Effects of Climate Change on Legacy Waste at the Enewetak Atoll

The Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) is in the central Pacific Ocean ~4,500 km west of Hawaii. The Enewetak Atoll, located in the northwest part of the RMI, was the site for 43 nuclear weapon tests between 1948 and 1958. Fallout and deposition from the tests contaminated the island surfaces, lagoon waters and sediment, and nearby ocean waters at the atoll. In the 1970s, a cleanup effort collected radioactive waste and placed it in the Cactus Crater on Runit Island (also called the Runit Dome). In December 2021, Congress directed the U.S. Department of Energy to study the impacts of climate change on the Runit Dome nuclear waste disposal site. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) assembled a multidisciplinary team of climate scientists, ocean modelers, environmental scientists, and health physicists to assess the likely effects of remaining radionuclides at the Enewetak Atoll. PNNL’s approach focused on effects of tropical cyclones that were postulated to mobilize and transport contaminated lagoon sediments and result in human and biota exposure. PNNL’s study estimated (1) the radionuclide source term, (2) the effects of climate change on severe storms, (3) mobilization and transport of radionuclides, and (4) radiation dose to humans and biota. Radionuclides in the lagoon and/or ocean waters of the Enewetak Atoll were characterized by the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) in 1972, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in 2015, and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in 2018. The RMI Nationwide Radiological Study was conducted in the early 1990s for radionuclides remaining in island soils. The 1972 AEC survey remains the most comprehensive source of radionuclide data on lagoon sediments. Climate change modeling at a regional scale in the central Pacific Ocean is limited. PNNL climate scientists simulated severe historical storms postulated to occur both in a recent climate (2015) and in the future (2090) using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model, employing a pseudo-global-warming technique. A postulated complete, future failure of the Runit Dome was also considered. PNNL developed a high-resolution regional ocean hydrodynamics model covering the entire RMI extended economic zone using the Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FVCOM). The FVCOM model was run using global reanalysis data for current climate and WRF-ARW simulation for the future climate. PNNL also developed a radionuclide fate and transport model using the FVCOM Integrated Compartment Model (FVCOM-ICM) to simulate the current and future mobilization and transport of radionuclides sorbed to lagoon sediments and the exchange of radionuclides between the water and sediment. FVCOM-ICM-predicted radionuclide concentrations were then used to estimate radiation dose to humans and biota at all islands of the Enewetak Atoll. Under current climate conditions, annual radiation exposures for the southern islands including Enewetak (Fred) and Medren (Elmer) were below the current U.S. standards. Radiation doses were somewhat elevated starting at Runit Island northward and westward to Enjebi Island (Janet). The islands in the northwest quadrant, particularly Bokoluo (Alice) and Bokombako (Belle), remain relatively contaminated. The islands in the southwestern quadrant have low contamination. The highest contribution to radiation doses comes from consumption of locally grown foods. Two radionuclides, 90Sr and 137Cs, contributed the greatest fraction for most terrestrial foods. In current climate conditions, the storms temporarily increased radionuclide concentrations in the lagoon waters, increasing the radiation dose slightly. In future conditions, doses are expected to be smaller, primarily because of the radioactive decay of the shorter-lived radioisotopes of 90Sr and 137Cs. This could make all islands in the far northwest of the atoll – except Bokombako (Belle) and perhaps Bokoluo (Alice) – suitable for residency. For the f

Prasad, Rajiv↗
DOE OSTI2023

Numerical Study of Coupled Water and Vapor Flow, Heat Transfer, and Solute Transport in Variably-Saturated Deformable Soil During Freeze-Thaw Cycles

As climate change intensifies, soil water flow, heat transfer, and solute transport in the active, unfrozen zones within permafrost and seasonally frozen ground exhibit progressively more complex interactions that are difficult to elucidate with measurements alone. For example, frozen conditions impede water flow and solute transport in soil, while heat and mass transfer are significantly affected by high thermal inertia generated from water-ice phase change during the freeze-thaw cycle. To assist in understanding these subsurface processes, the current study presents a coupled two-dimensional model, which examines heat conduction-convection with water-ice phase change, soil water (liquid water and vapor) and groundwater flow, advective-dispersive solute transport with sorption, and soil deformation (frost heave and thaw settlement) in variably saturated soils subjected to freeze-thaw actions. This coupled multiphysics problem is numerically solved using the finite element method. The model's performance is first verified by comparison to a well-documented freezing test on unsaturated soil in a laboratory environment obtained from the literature. Then based on the proposed model, we quantify the impacts of freeze-thaw cycles on the distribution of temperature, water content, displacement history, and solute concentration in three distinct soil types, including sand, silt and clay textures. The influence of fluctuations in the air temperature, groundwater level, hydraulic conductivity, and solute transport parameters was also comparatively studied. The results show that (a) there is a significant bidirectional exchange between groundwater in the saturated zone and soil water in the vadose zone during freeze-thaw periods, and its magnitude increases with the combined influence of higher hydraulic conductivity and higher capillarity; (b) the rapid dewatering ahead of the freezing front causes local volume shrinkage within the non-frozen region when the freezing front propagates downward during the freezing stage and this volume shrinkage reduces the impact of frost heave due to ice formation. This gradually recovers when the thawed water replenishes the water loss zone during the thawing stage; and (c) the profiles of soil moisture, temperature, displacement, and solute concentration during freeze-thaw cycles are sensitive to the changes in amplitude and freeze-thaw period of the sinusoidal varying air temperature near the ground surface, hydraulic conductivity of soil texture, and the initial groundwater levels. Our modeling framework and simulation results highlight the need to account for coupled thermal-hydraulic-mechanical-chemical behaviors to better understand soil water and groundwater dynamics during freeze-thaw cycles and further help explain the observed changes in water cycles and landscape evolution in cold regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data from: "Ecophysiological variation in two provenances of Pinus flexilis seedlings across an elevation gradient from forest to alpine"

This archive contains data used to support conclusions drawn in “Ecophysiological variation in two provenances of Pinus flexilis seedlings across an elevation gradient from forest to alpine”, by Reinhardt et al., 2011. Data were collected over one summer season in plots within the Alpine Treeline Warming Experiment (ATWE), before climate manipulations began. The experiment was located on Niwot Ridge, in the Front Range of the Colorado Rocky Mountains. This data package includes five comma-separated-values (.csv) files, five Microsoft Excel (.xlsx) files, one .pdf file, and two types of geospatial files: keyhole markup language (.kml), and ESRI shapefiles (.shp). .csv files can be opened using any simple text-editing software (such as Notepad and TextEdit), R, and Microsoft Excel. .xlsx files can only be opened using Microsoft Excel. The .pdf file can be opened using Adobe Acrobat Reader or any other compatible file viewing software. The .kml file can be opened using Google Earth and Google Maps, and shapefiles can be opened using any software compatible with the file type, such as ESRI’s ArcGIS suite and QGIS.Data archived contain gas exchange and plant physiology measurements, non-structural carbohydrate data, among others. Geospatial files are also provided for additional locational context. The files and their contents in this data package are summarized under "Data Summary" in the included Data User's Guide. All files (excluding geospatial) are available in both Microsoft Excel and in .csv format, and are indicated in the Data Summary list as well.-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Climate change is predicted to cause upward shifts in forest tree distributions, which will require seedling recruitment beyond current forest boundaries. However, predicting the likelihood of successful plant establishment beyond current species’ ranges under changing climate is complicated by the interaction of genetic and environmental controls on seedling establishment. To determine how genetics and climate may interact to affect seedling establishment, we transplanted recently germinated seedlings from high- and low-elevation provenances (HI and LO, respectively) of Pinus flexilis in common gardens arrayed along an elevation and canopy gradient from subalpine forest into the alpine zone and examined differences in physiology and morphology between provenances and among sites. Plant dry mass, projected leaf area and shoot:root ratios were 12–40% greater in LO compared with HI seedlings at each elevation. There were no significant changes in these variables among sites except for decreased dry mass of LO seedlings in the alpine site. Photosynthesis, carbon balance (photosynthesis/respiration) and conductance increased >2× with elevation for both provenances, and were 35–77% greater in LO seedlings compared with HI seedlings. There were no differences in dark-adapted chlorophyll fluorescence (Fv/Fm) among sites or between provenances. Our results suggest that for P. flexilis seedlings, provenances selected for above-ground growth may outperform those selected for stress resistance in the absence of harsh climatic conditions, even well above the species’ range limits in the alpine zone. This indicates that forest genetics may be important to understanding and managing species’ range adjustments due to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Linking Large-Scale Double-ITCZ Bias to Local-Scale Drizzling Bias in Climate Models

Tropical precipitation in climate models presents significant biases in both the large-scale pattern (i.e., double intertropical convergence zone bias) and local-scale characteristics (i.e., drizzling bias with too frequent drizzle/convection and reduced occurrences of no and heavy precipitation). By untangling the coupled system and analyzing the biases in precipitation, cloud, and radiation, this study shows that local-scale drizzling bias in atmospheric models can lead to large-scale double-ITCZ bias in coupled models by inducing convective-regime-dependent biases in precipitation and cloud radiative effects (CRE). The double-ITCZ bias consists of a hemispherically asymmetric component that arises from the asymmetric SST bias and a nearly symmetric component that exists in atmospheric models without the SST bias. By increasing light rain but reducing heavy rain, local-scale drizzling bias induces positive (negative) precipitation bias in the moderate (strong) convective regime, leading to the nearly symmetric wet bias in atmospheric models. By affecting the cloud profile, local-scale drizzling bias induces positive (negative) CRE bias in the stratocumulus (convective) regime in atmospheric models. Because the stratocumulus (convective) region is climatologically more pronounced in the southern (northern) tropics, the CRE bias is deemed to be hemispherically asymmetric and drives warm and wet (cold and dry) biases in the southern (northern) tropics when coupled to ocean. Our results suggest that correcting local-scale drizzling bias is critical for fixing large-scale double-ITCZ bias. Finally, the drizzling and double-ITCZ biases are not alleviated in models with mesoscale (0.25°–0.5°) or even storm-resolving (~3 km) resolution, implying that either large-eddy simulation or fundamental improvement in small-scale subgrid parameterizations is needed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deep desert aquifers as an archive for Mid- to Late Pleistocene hydroclimate: An example from the southeastern Mediterranean

Many efforts have been made to illuminate the nature of past hydroclimates in semi-arid and arid regions, where current and future shifts in water availability have enormous consequences on human subsistence. Deep desert aquifers, where groundwater is stored for prolonged periods, might serve as a direct record of major paleo-recharge events. To date, groundwater-based paleoclimate reconstructions have mainly focused on a relatively narrow timescale (up to ∼40 kyr), limited by the relatively short half-life of the widely used radiocarbon (5.73 kyr). Here we demonstrate the usage of deep regional aquifers in the arid southeastern Mediterranean as a hydroclimate archive for earlier Mid-to-Late Pleistocene epochs. State-of-the-art dating tools, primarily the 81 Kr radioisotope (t 1/2 = 229 kyr), were combined with other atmosphere-derived tracers to illuminate the impact of four distinguishable wetter episodes over the past 400 kyr, with differences in climatic conditions and paleo-recharge locations. Variations in stable water isotope composition suggest moisture transport from more proximal (Mediterranean) and distal (Atlantic) sources to different parts of the region at distinct times. Large variability in the computed noble gas-based recharge temperature (NGT), ranging ~15–30 °C, cannot be explained by climate variations solely, and points to different recharge pathways, including geothermal heating in the deep unsaturated zone and recharge from high-elevation (colder) regions. The obtained groundwater record complements and enhances the interpretation of other terrestrial archives in the arid region, including a contribution of valuable information regarding the moisture source origin as reflected in the deuterium-excess values, which is unattainable from the common practice analysis of calcitic cave deposits. We conclude that similar applications in other deep (hundred-m-order) regional groundwater systems (e.g., the Sahara desert aquifers) can significantly advance our understanding of long-term (up to 1 Myr) paleo-hydroclimate in arid regions, including places where no terrestrial remnants, such as cave, lake, and spring sediments, are available.

Atom Trap Trace Analysis↗
DOE OSTI2021

A simulation-based assessment of technologies to reduce heat emissions from buildings

Heat emissions from buildings are part of anthropogenic heat leading to urban overheating. This paper aims to assess how technologies (i.e., energy conservation measures - ECMs), used to decrease energy use, may also reduce heat emissions from buildings. This study employs the physics-based engine EnergyPlus to simulate the main components of heat emissions from buildings to ambient air: envelope, zone, and systems. Hourly simulations are run for IECC single- and multi-family reference models with three representative climates: Miami, Baltimore, and Chicago. The results show that the performance of ECMs varies among weather, seasons, and residential typologies. Particularly, some ECMs (i.e., cool coatings, heat pumps, additional insulation, energy-awareness occupants) show a strong decrease in heat emissions, yet they are not always correlated with proportional decreases in energy use. When all ECMs are combined, the reductions are larger on heat emissions (89%) than on site energy (65%) from the base cases. During summer in Miami, the combination of ECMs shows a decrease in heat emissions from the building surface component of 80% during daytime, 92% for the HVAC component and a counterbalanced increase in the zone component of 88%, bringing to a daily decrease in total heat emissions. The main contributions of this study are quantifying how typical ECMs influence residential building heat emissions using EnergyPlus simulations and informing urban planners and stakeholders on prioritizing measures for mitigating urban overheating problems.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic coevolution of baseflow and multiscale groundwater flow system during prolonged droughts

Field and numerical studies suggest that baseflow is composed of waters from a spectrum of groundwater flow paths termed the Groundwater Flow System (GWFS) – from shallow hillslope contributions to watershed-scale deep circulation originating in headwaters and discharging into lowland rivers. Here, we explore the evolution of the GWFS under prolonged droughts to understand its dynamics and multiscale nature, and to elucidate its role in baseflow generation and recession at the watershed scale. In this work, we consider three drought scenarios of varying severity and simulate groundwater flow in a 2-D cross-section of an idealized watershed with deep permeable bedrock, tracking the evolution of flow paths, baseflow, and residence times during the recession process. We find that baseflow generation at different drainage stages, and within different subwatersheds, is influenced distinctly by flow paths of different scales, depending on the relative strength of the flow paths and the position of the subwatersheds relative to the recharge/discharge zones of the deeper watershed-scale groundwater circulation. Despite having the same local relief, geology, and climate, baseflow from each subwatershed has a distinct recession behavior and time-dependent residence time distribution. Also, the hydraulic and transport characteristics of baseflow generation co-evolve and are strongly affected by the connection state of the water table to subwatersheds. These findings suggest that asynchrony and dissimilarity of baseflow generation from hillslopes under the impact of the watershed-scale groundwater flow, and interactions with local-scale and intermediate-scale groundwater flow, must be taken into account when interpreting baseflow recession data and building conceptual baseflow models at the watershed scale.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗