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At least 433 records · Page 24

Human System Risk Communication: Directed Acyclic Graphs

- The Human System Risk Board (HSRB) is responsible for the management of a portfolio of 30 human system risks that NASA tracks and configuration manages to mitigate for future crewed exploration missions. - The HSRB has been exploring the concept of causal diagrams (in the form of Directed Acyclic Graphs or DAGs) as an approach to creating knowledge graphs for each risk to enable shared mental models of causal flow from spaceflight hazards to mission outcomes among HSRB Stakeholders. - These diagrams are intended to improve insight and communication of risk across the myriad subject matter experts and management interested in human system risk reduction. This includes program managers, systems engineers, and operators in addition to the Human Health and Performance Directorate. - The DAG project was intended to create the foundation for composition of the 30 baselined DAGs into a single risk network and software is being developed in parallel to enable this forward work.

directed acrylic graph↗

A Multi-Satellite Framework to Rapidly Evaluate Extreme Biosphere Cascades: The Western US 2021 Drought and Heatwave

The increasing frequency and intensity of climate extremes and complex ecosystem responses motivate the need for integrated observational studies at low-latency to determine biosphere responses and carbon-climate feedbacks. Here, we develop a satellite-based rapid attribution workflow and demonstrate its use at a 1–2-month latency to attribute drivers of the carbon cycle feedbacks during the 2020-2021 Western US drought and heatwave. In the first half of 2021, concurrent negative photosynthesis anomalies and large positive column CO 2 anomalies were detected with satellites. Using a simple atmospheric mass balance approach, we estimate a surface carbon efflux anomaly of 132 TgC in June 2021, a magnitude corroborated 28 independently with a dynamic global vegetation model. Integrated satellite observations of hydrologic processes, representing the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum (SPAC), show that these surface carbon flux anomalies are largely due to substantial reductions in photosynthesis because of a spatially widespread moisture-deficit propagation through the SPAC between 2020 and 2021. A causal model indicates deep soil moisture stores partially drove photosynthesis, maintaining its values in 2020 and driving its declines throughout 2021. The causal model also suggests legacy effects may have amplified photosynthesis deficits in 2021 beyond the direct effects of environmental forcing. The integrated, observation framework presented here provides a valuable first assessment of a biosphere extreme response and an independent testbed for improving drought propagation and mechanisms in models. The rapid identification of extreme carbon anomalies and hotspots can also aid mitigation and adaptation decisions.

Causal model↗

Positivity from Cosmological Correlators

Abstract Effective field theories in flat space and in anti-de Sitter space are constrained by causality and unitarity, often in the form of positivity bounds. Similar bounds have been harder to demonstrate in cosmological backgrounds, where the roles of unitarity and causality are more obscure. Fortunately, the expansion of the universe ensures that late-time cosmological correlators are effectively classical and the role of unitarity is played by classical statistical inequalities. For multi-field inflation, the resulting positivity constraints have long been known in terms of the Suyama-Yamaguchi inequality. In this paper, we demonstrate that similar statistical bounds imply nontrivial constraints for massive fields in the early universe. We show that any real anomalous dimensions for principal series fields in de Sitter space must be positive. We also derive a limit on the amplitude of particular oscillatory signals from inflation, including those arising in cosmological collider physics. Finally, we demonstrate that these constraints manifest themselves directly in the two-point statistics of matter and galaxies that will be measured in upcoming surveys.

Physics↗

Quantum area fluctuations from gravitational phase space

We study the gravitational phase space associated to a stretched horizon within a finite-sized causal diamond in (d + 2)-dimensional spacetimes. By imposing the Raychaudhuri equation, we obtain its constrained symplectic form using the covariant phase space formalism and derive the relevant quantum commutators by inverting the symplectic form and quantizing. Finally, we compute the area fluctuations of the causal diamond by taking a Carrollian limit of the stretched horizon in pure Minkowski spacetime, and derive the relationship $\left\langle {\left(\Delta A\right)}^2\right\rangle \ge \frac{2\pi G}{d}\left\langle A\right\rangle$, showing that the variance of the area fluctuations is proportional to the area itself.

classical theories of gravity↗

The gravity duals of modular Hamiltonians

In this study, we investigate modular Hamiltonians defined with respect to arbitrary spatial regions in quantum field theory states which have semi-classical gravity duals. We find prescriptions in the gravity dual for calculating the action of the modular Hamiltonian on its defining state, including its dual metric, and also on small excitations around the state. Curiously, use of the covariant holographic entanglement entropy formula leads us to the conclusion that the modular Hamiltonian, which in the quantum field theory acts only in the causal completion of the region, does not commute with bulk operators whose entire gauge-invariant description is space-like to the causal completion of the region.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Hidden zeros for particle/string amplitudes and the unity of colored scalars, pions and gluons

Recent years have seen the emergence of a new understanding of scattering amplitudes in the simplest theory of colored scalar particles — the Tr(Φ 3 ) theory — based on combinatorial and geometric ideas in the kinematic space of scattering data. In this paper we report a surprise: far from the toy model it appears to be, the “stringy” Tr(Φ 3 ) amplitudes secretly contains the scattering amplitudes for pions, as well as non-supersymmetric gluons, in any number of dimensions. The amplitudes for the different theories are given by one and the same function, related by a simple shift of the kinematics. This discovery was spurred by another fundamental observation: the tree-level Tr(Φ 3 ) field theory amplitudes have a hidden pattern of zeros when a special set of non-planar Mandelstam invariants is set to zero. These zeros are not manifest in Feynman diagrams but are made obvious by the connection of these amplitudes to the new understanding of associahedra arising from “causal diamonds” in kinematic space. Furthermore, near these zeros, the amplitudes simplify, by factoring into a non-trivial product of smaller amplitudes. Remarkably the amplitudes for pions and gluons are observed to also vanish in the same kinematical locus. These properties for Tr(Φ 3 ) amplitudes hold and further generalize to the “stringy” Tr(Φ 3 ) amplitudes. The “kinematic causal diamond” picture suggests a unique shift of the kinematic data that preserves the zeros, and this shift is precisely the one that unifies colored scalars, pions, and gluons into a single object. We will focus in this paper on explaining the hidden zeros and factorization properties and the connection between all the colored theories, working for simplicity at tree level. Subsequent works will describe this new formulation for the Non-linear Sigma Model and non-supersymmetric Yang-Mills theory, at all loop orders.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Einstein gravity 3-point functions from conformal field theory

We report on stress tensor correlation functions in four-dimensional conformal field theories with large N and a sparse spectrum. Theories in this class are expected to have local holographic duals, so effective field theory in anti-de Sitter implies that the stress tensor sector should exhibit universal, gravity-like behavior. At the linearized level, the hallmark of locality in the emergent geometry is that stress tensor three-point functions $\langle$T T T $\rangle$, normally specified by three constants, should approach a universal structure controlled by a single parameter as the gap to higher spin operators is increased. We demonstrate this phenomenon by a direct CFT calculation. Stress tensor exchange, by itself, violates causality and unitarity unless the three-point functions are carefully tuned, and the unique consistent choice exactly matches the prediction of Einstein gravity. Under some assumptions about the other potential contributions, we conclude that this structure is universal, and in particular, that the anomaly coefficients satisfy a ≈ c as conjectured by Camanho et al. The argument is based on causality of a four-point function, with kinematics designed to probe bulk locality, and invokes the chaos bound of Maldacena, Shenker, and Stanford.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

A Converse to Lieb–Robinson Bounds in One Dimension Using Index Theory

Abstract Unitary dynamics with a strict causal cone (or “light cone”) have been studied extensively, under the name of quantum cellular automata (QCAs). In particular, QCAs in one dimension have been completely classified by an index theory. Physical systems often exhibit only approximate causal cones; Hamiltonian evolutions on the lattice satisfy Lieb–Robinson bounds rather than strict locality. This motivates us to study approximately locality preserving unitaries (ALPUs). We show that the index theory is robust and completely extends to one-dimensional ALPUs. As a consequence, we achieve a converse to the Lieb–Robinson bounds: any ALPU of index zero can be exactly generated by some time-dependent, quasi-local Hamiltonian in constant time. For the special case of finite chains with open boundaries, any unitary satisfying the Lieb–Robinson bound may be generated by such a Hamiltonian. We also discuss some results on the stability of operator algebras which may be of independent interest.

Physics↗

Challenges in simulating economic effects of climate change on global agricultural markets

Abstract Many approaches have been used to investigate climate change impacts on agriculture. However, several caveats remain in this field: (i) analyses focus only on a few major crops, (ii) large differences in yield impacts are observed between projections from site-based crops models and Global Gridded Crop Models (GGCMs), (iii) climate change impacts on livestock are rarely quantified, and (iv) several causal relations among biophysical, environmental, and socioeconomic aspects are usually not taken into account. We investigate how assumptions about these four aspects affect agricultural markets, food supply, consumer well-being, and land use at global level by deploying a large-scale socioeconomic model of the global economy with detailed representation of the agricultural sector. We find global welfare impacts several times larger when climate impacts all crops and all livestock compared to a scenario with impacts limited to major crops. At the regional level, food budget can decrease by 10 to 25% in developing countries, challenging food security. The role of land area expansion as a major source of adaptation is highlighted. Climate impacts on crop yields from site-based process crop models generate more challenging socioeconomic outcomes than those from GGCMs. We conclude that the agricultural research community should expand efforts to estimate climate impacts on many more crops and livestock. Also, careful comparison of the GGCMs and traditional site-based process crop models is needed to understand their major implications for agricultural and food markets.

Gurgel, Angelo C. (ORCID:0000000183319508)↗

Power law inflation with electromagnetism

We generalize Ringström’s global future causal stability results (Ringström 2009) [11] for certain expanding cosmological solutions of the Einstein-scalar field equations to solutions of the Einstein–Maxwell-scalar field system. In particular, after noting that the power law inflationary spacetimes (M{sup n+1},g{sup -hat}, ϕ{sup -hat}) considered by Ringström (2009) in [11] are solutions of the Einstein–Maxwell-scalar field system (with exponential potential) as well as of the Einstein-scalar field system (with the same exponential potential), we consider (nonlinear) perturbations of initial data sets of these spacetimes which include electromagnetic perturbations as well as gravitational and scalar perturbations. We show that if (as in Ringström (2009) [11]) we focus on pairs of relatively scaled open sets U{sub R{sub 0}}⊂U{sub 4R{sub 0}} on an initial slice of (M{sup n+1},g{sup -hat}), and if we choose a set of perturbed data which on U{sub 4R{sub 0}} is sufficiently close to that of (M{sup n+1},g{sup -hat},ϕ{sup -hat}, A{sup -hat} = 0), then in the maximal globally hyperbolic spacetime development (M{sup n+1},g,ϕ,A) of this data via the Einstein–Maxwell-scalar field equations, all causal geodesics emanating from U{sub R{sub 0}} are future complete (just as in (M{sup n+1},g{sup -hat})). We also verify that, in a certain sense, the future asymptotic behavior of the fields in the spacetime developments of the perturbed data sets does not differ significantly from the future asymptotic behavior of (M{sup n+1},g{sup -hat}, ϕ{sup -hat}, A{sup -hat} = 0). -- Highlights: •We prove stability of expanding solutions of the Einstein–Maxwell-scalar field equations. •All nearby solutions are geodesically complete. •The topology of the initial slice is irrelevant to our stability results.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Cosmological QCD phase transition in steady non-equilibrium dissipative Hořava–Lifshitz early universe

We study the phase transition from quark–gluon plasma to hadrons in the early universe in the context of non-equilibrium thermodynamics. According to the standard model of cosmology, a phase transition associated with chiral symmetry breaking after the electro-weak transition has occurred when the universe was about 1–10 μs old. We focus attention on such a phase transition in the presence of a viscous relativistic cosmological background fluid in the framework of non-detailed balance Hořava–Lifshitz cosmology within an effective model of QCD. We consider a flat Friedmann–Robertson–Walker universe filled with a non-causal and a causal bulk viscous cosmological fluid respectively and investigate the effects of the running coupling constants of Hořava–Lifshitz gravity, λ, on the evolution of the physical quantities relevant to a description of the early universe, namely, the temperature T, scale factor a, deceleration parameter q and dimensionless ratio of the bulk viscosity coefficient to entropy density (ξ)/s . We assume that the bulk viscosity cosmological background fluid obeys the evolution equation of the steady truncated (Eckart) and full version of the Israel–Stewart fluid, respectively. -- Highlights: •In this paper we have studied quark–hadron phase transition in the early universe in the context of the Hořava–Lifshitz model. •We use a flat FRW universe with the bulk viscosity cosmological background fluid obeying the evolution equation of the steady truncated (Eckart) and full version of the Israel–Stewart fluid, respectively.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Localized excitations from localized unitary operators

Localized unitary operators are basic probes of locality and causality in quantum systems: localized unitary operators create localized excitations in entangled states. Working with an explicit form, we explore properties of these operators in quantum mechanics and quantum field theory. We show that, unlike unitary operators, local non-unitary operators generically create non-local excitations. We present a local picture for quantum systems in which localized experimentalists can only act through localized Hamiltonian deformations, and therefore localized unitary operators. We demonstrate that localized unitary operators model certain quantum quenches exactly. We show how the Reeh–Schlieder theorem follows intuitively from basic properties of entanglement, non-unitary operators, and the local picture. We show that a recent quasi-particle picture for excited-state entanglement entropy in conformal field theories is not universal for all local operators. We prove a causality relation for entanglement entropy and connect our results to the AdS/CFT correspondence. - Highlights: • Local unitary operators create local excitations. • Local non-unitary operators generically create non-local excitations. • Reeh–Schlieder follows intuitively from non-locality of local operator excitations. • Local operators of definite conformal dimension create local excitations. • Quasi-particle picture for entanglement entropy fails for some local operators.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Energy prediction using spatiotemporal pattern networks

This paper presents a novel data-driven technique based on the spatiotemporal pattern network (STPN) for energy/power prediction for complex dynamical systems. Built on symbolic dynamical filtering, the STPN framework is used to capture not only the individual system characteristics but also the pair-wise causal dependencies among different sub-systems. To quantify causal dependencies, a mutual information based metric is presented and an energy prediction approach is subsequently proposed based on the STPN framework. To validate the proposed scheme, two case studies are presented, one involving wind turbine power prediction (supply side energy) using the Western Wind Integration data set generated by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for identifying spatiotemporal characteristics, and the other, residential electric energy disaggregation (demand side energy) using the Building America 2010 data set from NREL for exploring temporal features. In the energy disaggregation context, convex programming techniques beyond the STPN framework are developed and applied to achieve improved disaggregation performance.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

New imidazolidinedione derivatives as antimalarial agents

A series of new N-alky- and N-alkoxy-imidazolidinediones was prepared and assessed for prophylactic and radical curative activities in mouse and Rhesus monkey models. New compounds are generally metabolically stable, weakly active in vitro against Plasmodium falciparum clones (D6 and W2) and in mice infected with Plasmodium berghei sporozoites. Representative compounds 8e and 9c showed good causal prophylactic activity in Rhesus monkeys dosed 30 mg/kg/day for 3 consecutive days by IM, delayed patency for 19-21 days and 54-86 days, respectively, as compared to the untreated control. By oral, 9c showed only marginal activity in causal prophylactic and radical curative tests at 50 mg/kg/day x 3 and 30 mg/kg/day x 7 plus chloroquine 10 mg/kg for 7 days, respectively.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Comprehensive In Vivo Interrogation Reveals Phenotypic Impact of Human Enhancer Variants

Establishing causal links between non-coding variants and human phenotypes is an increasing challenge. In this paper, we introduce a high-throughput mouse reporter assay for assessing the pathogenic potential of human enhancer variants in vivo and examine nearly a thousand variants in an enhancer repeatedly linked to polydactyly. We show that 71% of all rare non-coding variants previously proposed as causal lead to reporter gene expression in a pattern consistent with their pathogenic role. Variants observed to alter enhancer activity were further confirmed to cause polydactyly in knockin mice. We also used combinatorial and single-nucleotide mutagenesis to evaluate the in vivo impact of mutations affecting all positions of the enhancer and identified additional functional substitutions, including potentially pathogenic variants hitherto not observed in humans. Our results uncover the functional consequences of hundreds of mutations in a phenotype-associated enhancer and establish a widely applicable strategy for systematic in vivo evaluation of human enhancer variants.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DECA: Discrete Event inspired Cellular Automata for grain structure prediction in additive manufacturing

Microstructure largely dictates macroscopic material properties and is strongly affected by processing. Therefore, the simulation of microstructure evolution in response to thermal fields during processing is of significant interest within the computational materials science community. Additive manufacturing (AM) has emerged as a technique for producing complex geometries and unique microstructures. Yet, complex and rapid thermal cycles in AM pose computational challenges for existing microstructure models. This work proposes a discrete event inspired cellular automata (CA) approach, titled DECA, to accelerate simulation of grain structure evolution in AM. In contrast to conventional time-stepped CA models, this model directly solves the times capture events would take place allowing for stepping in events rather than time (a technique also found in the field of discrete-event simulation). In comparison to purely serial discrete-event models, DECA allows for temporary violation of the causality constraint, but detects and corrects these violations, leading to an emergent phenomenon dubbed causality rippling, in which previously calculated capture events are overwritten. The amount of repeated calculations, defined by the capture ratio, is taken as a measure of computational inefficiency, and the model parameters that affect this ratio are evaluated. The new DECA approach was found to be more computationally efficient than conventional time-stepped CA models while guaranteeing an accurate solution, which can only be achieved in the conventional models for vanishingly small time steps. Finally, opportunities for parallelization and scaling of the new approach are discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Social relations: A critical reflection on the notion of social impacts as change

This article seeks to reflect upon the dominant conception of social impacts as the change produced by development projects and programs, and the ways in which those affected perceive and experience them. Identifying change may be a necessary but not sufficient step in acknowledging the complexity of social life. Engaging with critical scholarship produced in the fields of both social impact assessment (SIA) and of the social studies of technical/planned interventions, I discuss how the understanding of social impacts as change responds ultimately to a causal–instrumental logic that, in order to make sense of the complexity of social life, tends to reduce it to a series of variables and matrices. I suggest a complementary dialectical approach focusing on social relations. This approach, allows an alternative means of analysing social impacts concerning the way policies and projects reconfigure conditions and possibilities on a societal level. To accomplish this, and in order to go beyond the sequence of potential impacts (or changes) and their generic indicators, I propose a set of analytical questions that highlight how social relations are structured. Besides, on the assumption that development is both a form of governance and a space of contestation, negotiation, and activism, this approach may contribute to further the potential for reflection and mobilisation that the practice of SIA presents. - Highlights: •Change, which is inherent to social life, is insufficient to determine social impacts. •The critique of causal-instrumental logic provides insights to reflect on social impacts. •Social impacts should rather refer to how interventions reconfigure social relations. •The complex, mutually constitutive nature of social phenomena may thus be recognized. •SIA should go beyond change to the understanding of its socio-political significance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Anatomy of an incident

A traditional view of incidents is that they are caused by shortcomings in human competence, attention, or attitude. It may be under the label of “loss of situational awareness,” procedure “violation,” or “poor” management. A different view is that human error is not the cause of failure, but a symptom of failure – trouble deeper inside the system. In this perspective, human error is not the conclusion, but rather the starting point of investigations. During an investigation, three types of information are gathered: physical, documentary, and human (recall/experience). Through the causal analysis process, apparent cause or apparent causes are identified as the most probable cause or causes of an incident or condition that management has the control to fix and for which effective recommendations for corrective actions can be generated. A causal analysis identifies relevant human performance factors. In the following presentation, the anatomy of a radiological incident is discussed, and one case study is presented. We analyzed the contributing factors that caused a radiological incident. When underlying conditions, decisions, actions, and inactions that contribute to the incident are identified. This includes weaknesses that may warrant improvements that tolerate error. Measures that reduce consequences or likelihood of recurrence are discussed.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗