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At least 433 records · Page 24
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

A mean field homogenization model for the mechanical response of ceramic matrix composites

SiC/SiC composites offer exceptional mechanical stability at high temperatures and under irradiation. These ceramic matrix composites are therefore strong candidate materials for future nuclear energy applications. Their mechanical response, which exhibits pseudo-plasticity, is mediated by matrix cracking, fiber debonding, and fiber pull-out due to slip. Here, this study introduces a mechanistic model for the behavior of unidirectionally reinforced SiC/SiC composites. Specifically a mean field homogenization approach is proposed to account for all deformation and degradation modes during mechanical deformation. The homogenization scheme relies on a Mori Tanaka method that is extended to consider the effects of the coating’s elasto-plastic response on the development of micromechanical fields. Further, the model proposed introduces a method to effectively account for the role of localized damage (i.e., cracks) on mechanical fields within both the fiber and the matrix. Upon validating the model against experimental data, the roles of interface sliding, coating dimensions and intrinsic elastic response, as well as of microstructure (e.g. porosity, fiber volume fraction) are discussed.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Uranium hydride corrosion. II Modeling spatially random growth using reaction and nucleation kinetics

A uranium hydride (UH 3 ) corrosion kinetics model has been developed, based on dimensionally restricted nucleation kinetics, which combines heretofore separate reaction and nucleation kinetics models into a single predictive construct. This theoretical framework accounts for the superficial and random pitting behaviour of UH 3 corrosion. The model can be used to generate the net corrosion surface area and volume fractions for a uranium specimen, generally accounting for its geometric form factor through the surface-to-volume ratio. Furthermore, the combined corrosion kinetics model enables the generation of quantities which may be directly compared to those obtained by non-destructive, non-contact evaluation methods.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Empirical evidence that mean soil contaminant concentration is not a conservative indicator of external exposure to wildlife

Adequate information on external exposure is often a limiting factor in ecological risk assessments because of a lack of exposure data for free-ranging animals as they interact with a heterogeneous distribution of contaminants. Instead, most wildlife exposure data are estimated from model simulations. However, empirical exposure data are rarely available to verify model results, or to test fundamental assumptions inherent in exposure assessments. We used novel, GPS-coupled radiation dosimeters on reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) to quantify their external exposure for five months in a Chernobyl fallout affected mountainous area of Norway. The exposure data were then used to test a fundamental assumption in screening-level risk assessments: Mean soil contaminant concentrations can be used to conservatively estimate chronic external exposures to representative animals. External exposure and GPS coordinates were obtained hourly and compared to model simulations of exposure based on airborne surveys of 137 Cs soil contamination. Our objectives were to determine 1) if modelled dose estimates based on mean 137 Cs soil concentrations were conservative, and 2) if modelled dose estimates could be improved by adjusting for spatial–temporal heterogeneity of contaminants using 137 Cs concentrations within reindeers’ GPS-defined home ranges and core areas. We found that external exposure modelled from mean soil contaminant concentrations underestimated exposure by 70% compared to empirical measurements from GPS-dosimeter collars worn on individual animals. Using area-weighted mean contaminant levels within the animals’ home range improved the model estimates, but still underestimated the field dosimeter data by 53%. The best estimate of external exposure was obtained when high-use areas within their home range, along with spatial heterogeneity of the contaminant, was accounted for by using area-weighted mean soil contaminant levels within GPS-derived core areas. Accounting for temporal use of core areas within animals’ home range provided a 24% improvement. Here, a comparison of our analyses to similar work performed on Chernobyl wolves found the two studies concur that risk assessors should be cautious in relying on the paradigm of using averaged soil contaminant levels to provide conservative estimates of external exposure to representative individuals. Results of modelled external exposure based on mean soil contaminant concentrations could misguide assessors and cause inappropriate management decisions.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2025

A bilevel multistage stochastic self-scheduling model with indivisibilities for trading in the continuous intraday electricity market

In this paper, we study the profit maximization problem of a virtual power plant trading in the continuous intraday electricity market. Our virtual power plant model is compatible with renewable, and thermal assets, covering a range of virtual power plants currently participating in energy markets. We model the trading problem as a bilevel multistage stochastic program. The upper level of the problem accounts for the profit maximization of the virtual power plant with explicit modeling of the technical constraints of the operational status of the thermal power plant including minimum start-up and shut-down times, ramp-up and ramp-down rates, and minimum generation level. The upper level also decides which continuous and indivisible (fill-or-kill) orders are submitted to the market. The lower-level problem accounts for the clearing of the continuous intraday market, i.e., matching of buy and sell orders. Because of the presence of fill-or-kill orders, the lower-level problem is mixed-integer, which prevents its direct conversion to a single-level problem using duality. In order to solve this challenging problem, we develop a convex-hull extended formulation for the lower-level problem, apply duality theory to obtain a single-level stochastic equivalent formulation, and employ McCormick envelopes to turn the problem into a multistage stochastic mixed-integer linear problem, which we solve using the stochastic dual dynamic integer programming algorithm. We conduct numerical experiments and analyze the optimal trading behavior of a virtual power plant trading in an ideal continuous market without arbitrage.

Bilevel multistage stochastic programming problem↗
DOE OSTI2021

Miscellaneous Electric Loads: Characterization and Energy Savings Potential

Over time, miscellaneous electric loads (MELs) are expected to increase both in magnitude and share of residential and commercial building energy consumption. This trend is most apparent in North America, but it is also occurring in Japan and Europe. However, the contribution of MELs to building energy use is not currently well understood, both because the products in this category are transforming rapidly and the definition and classification of MELs is ambiguous. This study estimated the national energy consumption of 36 MELs using best-available data and found them to comprise 12% of delivered electricity to the U.S. residential and commercial building sectors. If 26 of these MELs were replaced with the most energy-efficient product models available on the market, their energy consumption could be halved to 6% of delivered electricity. National energy models will better account for building energy consumption by incorporating the MELs data collected and analyzed for this study, leading to improved policy decisions.

Miscellaneous electric loads, Plug loads, Taxonomy↗
DOE OSTI2024

Component-based SHGC determination of BIPV glazing for product comparison

Building-integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) systems are intrinsically designed to generate electricity and to provide at least one building-related function. When BIPV modules act as glazing products in windows, skylights or curtain walls, their ability to control the transmission of solar energy into the building must be characterised by a Solar Heat Gain Coefficient (SHGC) or g value (also known as Total Solar Energy Transmittance – TSET – or “solar factor”). For the comparison of BIPV glazing products consisting of one PV laminate and possibly further, conventional glazing layers separated by gas-filled cavities, the procedures documented in international standards for architectural glazing (e.g. ISO 9050 and EN 410) form a suitable starting point. Easily implemented modifications to these procedures are proposed to take both optical inhomogeneity (if relevant) and extraction of electricity from BIPV glazing units into account. Geometrically complex glazing and shading devices, and light-scattering glazing layers, are outside the scope of the proposed methodology; SHGC determination for obliquely incident solar radiation is also excluded. For these cases, the experimental calorimetric approach documented in [ISO 19467:2017; ISO 19467-2:2021] is recommended. The paper also presents results and conclusions from an implementation exercise and sensitivity study carried out by participants of the IEA-PVPS Task 15 on BIPV. The cell coverage ratio in the PV laminate, the thermal resistance offered by the glazing configuration, the choice of boundary conditions and the effect of extracting electricity were all identified as parameters which significantly affect the SHGC value determined for a given type of BIPV glazing. A practicable approach to accommodate the great variety of dimensions typical for BIPV glazing is also proposed. These findings should pave the way for modifying the existing component-based standards for architectural glazing to take the specific features of BIPV glazing into account.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of a dynamic grid mix and climate on operational carbon emissions modeling for different building typologies and climate zones

Calculating operational carbon emissions through a building’s lifecycle is complex due to the dynamic nature of influencing factors such as climate and energy grid mix. This paper introduces a novel methodology for modeling 30-year operational carbon impacts of buildings and applies this method to mid-rise office and residential typologies across various US climate zones. The method accounts for these temporal variabilities using new and scarcely cited data sources. Key findings indicate that future changes in the climate, while impactful, play a relatively modest role in operational carbon emissions compared to significant reductions with modeling scenarios using the projected decarbonization of the electricity grid. Here, the study also finds that using annual, month-hourly, or hourly grid emission factors have a minimal impact on carbon accounting, except in certain climates and program types where emission patterns do not align with a building’s energy consumption. Warmer climates like Miami, Florida and Tucson, Arizona, which rely heavily on cooling, demonstrate larger variations in carbon emissions when using higher temporal resolution emission factors. Ultimately, this study underscores the critical role of grid decarbonization in reducing long-term emissions and the importance of incorporating this variable in life cycle assessment (LCA) modeling.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

SimH 2 : an integrated techno-economic modeling framework for hydrogen pipeline infrastructure and network optimization

Large-scale hydrogen (H 2 ) pipeline transport design and network optimization have seldom been reported due to the lack of a cost model accounting for the relationship between transport cost and hydrogen mass flow rate. Here, this work introduced a system-level cost model for hydrogen pipeline transport at supercritical state and integrated it with an existing CO 2 pipeline network tool, SimCCS, for hydrogen-specific pipeline design and optimization. The Intermountain West (I-West) region of the U.S., historically dependent on fossil fuel-based economies, is chosen to demonstrate the capabilities of our H 2 pipeline cost model and transport network optimization platform called SimH 2 . Two scenarios are examined: one where the pipeline is not allowed to pass through disadvantaged communities and the other where it is permitted. The results highlight that incorporating disadvantaged-community constraints lead to longer pipeline routes and increased transport costs, reflecting the trade-offs involved in equitable infrastructure development. It is demonstrated that the newly developed SimH 2 tool not only enables the efficient design of H 2 transportation pipelines but also optimizes the network by accounting for local terrain and the presence of disadvantaged areas.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of cooling setpoint setback savings in commercial buildings using electricity and exterior temperature time series data

Commercial buildings account for a significant amount of total energy produced in the US, and the Heating Ventilation and Cooling (HVAC) systems are one of the most significant components of their overall consumption. In this study, we proposed a new data-driven approach to evaluate HVAC cooling systems in commercial buildings and identify savings opportunities. The focus is an investigation of the impact of thermostat setpoint setback but using only whole building, electricity data taken at 15-min intervals for the analysis. We conducted a comparative study of setpoint setback characteristics on 432 commercial buildings with 5 building usage types across the United States. To accomplish this, both piecewise and Random Forest regression algorithms were employed using electricity and exterior temperature datasets to identify operational characteristics and the effective setpoints in the building to determine the corresponding savings opportunities. Both occupied and unoccupied time periods were studied across cooling degree days (CDD), when air conditioning is typically operational. Here the results show that in commercial buildings, on average, cooling systems account for 9.5% of total consumption. When a one degree setback during the cooling season is applied, an average of approximately 1.1% of annual consumption is achieved; retail and office buildings demonstrate the highest potential for savings. Additionally, we identified that the number of cooling degree days and base to peak ratio (BPR) are the most important variables for predicting the magnitude of the consumption of cooling systems.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Development of a health monitoring framework: Application to a supercritical pulverized coal-fired boiler

In this study, this work details the development of a physics-based equipment health monitoring framework for a supercritical boiler, using first-principles models to estimate the remaining useful life (RUL) of its components. The framework accounts for fatigue and creep life consumption, generating spatio-temporal variations in mechanical and thermal stress. Analysis of the stress profile throughout the boiler highlights the finishing superheater inlet steam header as a vulnerable location susceptible to damage from cycling operation. The framework also yields quantified uncertainty in the RUL projection for specific locations, accounting for uncertainties in material properties and boiler operation. Results indicate that operational uncertainties (e.g., seasonal variation and operational strategy) and material properties (e.g., rupture time coefficients, Young’s modulus, yield strength, and coefficient of thermal expansion) significantly impact the RUL of the finishing superheater inlet steam header. Additionally, case studies demonstrate the use of the health monitoring framework as a predictive tool for operational planning under uncertainty, including scenarios with and without updates on the operation of the boiler.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian calibration and uncertainty quantification of a rate-dependent cohesive zone model for polymer interfaces

In this work we present a rate-dependent cohesive zone model for the fracture of polymeric interfaces and performs a Bayesian calibration, an uncertainty quantification, and a sensitivity analysis for the model. The proposed cohesive zone model accounts for both reversible elastic and irreversible rate-dependent separation sliding deformation at the interface. The viscous dissipation due to the irreversible opening at the interface is modeled using elastic-viscoplastic kinematics that incorporates the effects of strain rate. Inverse calibration of parameters for such complex models through trial and error is challenging due to the large number of parameters of the model. Moreover, the calibrated parameter values are often non-unique and uncertain when the available experimental data is limited. To tackle this challenge, we employ a Bayesian calibration approach to identify parameters from experimental data, the resulting parameters significantly enhance the accuracy of the model. To quantify the uncertainty associated with the inverse parameter estimation, a modular Bayesian approach is employed to calibrate the unknown model parameters, accounting for the parameter uncertainty of the cohesive zone model. The advantages of the Bayesian calibration over a deterministic parameter fit are demonstrated. Further, to quantify the model uncertainties, such as incorrect assumptions or missing physics, a discrepancy function is introduced, which significantly improves the model’s prediction. Finally, the total uncertainty of the model is quantified in a predictive setting. A sensitivity analysis is performed to assess how changes in the input variables of the model affect the peak load, facilitating the identification of a concise set of highly influential parameters. The present approach can be used for calibration and uncertainty quantification for other complex computational mechanics models. It should also facilitate the designing of interface materials under uncertainty.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Insights for Canadian electricity generation planning from an integrated assessment model: Should we be more cautious about hydropower cost overruns?

Hydropower accounts for approximately 60% of electricity generation in Canada, with growth expected in the coming decades as part of renewable energy transitions; however, frequent cost overruns threaten the viability of this growth. Here, using the integrated assessment model GCAM, we develop an endogenous representation of hydropower for Canada that accounts for market dynamics, thus permitting analysis of hydropower competition with other electricity generation technologies, both with and without cost overruns. Results show that modelling hydropower resources endogenously increases Canadian hydropower deployment relative to an assumption of fixed hydropower production, from 417 to 495 TWh annually by 2050. In scenarios that apply cost overruns at historical levels, hydropower loses market share to more easily scalable technologies like wind power. When including high cost overrun assumptions, the model determines that hydropower falls from about 73% to 65% of Canadian electricity generation by 2050, while wind power increases from about 8% to 11%. Countries may be better able to achieve electrification and renewable energy targets at lower cost by avoiding large-scale, overrun-prone hydropower and nuclear generation projects. Model results support that cost overruns are important considerations for policy decisions related to electricity sector development in Canada and elsewhere.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

The effect of terrain-influenced winds on fire spread in QUIC-Fire

Here in this manuscript, we describe the implementation of the terrain-following version of QUIC-URB into QUIC-Fire and a demonstration of the impacts of terrain-influenced winds on QUIC-Fire-simulated fire spread. No changes to the underlying QUIC-Fire fire spread algorithm were made other than what was required to correctly account for the inclusion of terrain. This paper summarizes simulations used to understand how the QUIC-URB terrain-influenced winds affect upslope fire behavior without additional changes to the QUIC-Fire fire spread algorithm. Previously published FIRETEC results are compared to simulation results from the modified QUIC-Fire (incorporating terrain-influenced winds) that use the same topographies and fuels. QUIC-Fire results showed overall similar behaviors in terms of how the topographies affected fire shapes and trends in spread rates. Due to the terrain-following version of QUIC-URB being unable to generate flow separations at the crest of hills, fire spread rates in these regions across all non-flat topographies were over-predicted when compared to FIRETEC. Lateral fire growth showed similar trends with FIRETEC between topographies but did not capture the increase in spread due to a diagonal interface between grassland and forested fuel regions in the test domain. These simulations suggest possible refinements that are necessary to improve QUIC-Fire and thus guide ongoing efforts related to: how flame tilt angle is accounted for, the incorporation of non-local drag effects, and the inclusion of the wake-eddy parameterizations that are used in QUIC-URB.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Overview of oxygen opacity experiments at the National Ignition Facility and investigation of potential systematic errors

Experiments to measure oxygen opacity at stellar interior conditions have been performed at the National Ignition Facility in a Discovery Science campaign. These experiments utilize the Opacity-on-NIF platform with a sample comprised of O, Mg, and Si. The spectral data from the Opacity Spectrometer cover the 1000–2000 eV photon energy range showing bound-free continuum absorption from O and line absorption from Mg and Si. DANTE and the Gated X-ray Detector are employed to measure the sample plasma’s temperature and density, respectively. Initial data show lower transmission than expected by theoretical models, raising questions of whether potential background or data uniformity concerns could produce systematic errors in the inferred transmission. Here, we investigate three concerns thought to be important for the oxygen opacity data, including instrumental scattered background, sample self-emission non-uniformity, and backlight continuum non-uniformity. Additionally, we show the effect of a recently developed method to account for 2nd order crystal reflection. The total effect of these concerns on one experiment is found to be small compared to the observed difference between the inferred transmission and a model calculation at the inferred temperature and density. Thus, we conclude that these potential sources of systematic error cannot account for the observed difference, increasing the likelihood of a real effect due to the high temperature and density conditions. However, because this is only a single experiment, we cannot make a firm conclusion. More experiments measuring the opacity and necessary calibrations are needed to assess the reproducibility and uncertainty of this result.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Growth of Jupiter: Formation in disks of gas and solids and evolution to the present epoch

The formation of Jupiter is modeled via core-nucleated accretion, and the planet's evolution is simulated up to the present epoch. Throughout the phases when the planet acquires most of its heavy-element content, the calculation of solids' accretion accounts for interactions with an evolving disk of planetesimals. The phase of growth from an embryo of a few hundred kilometers in radius until the time when the accretion of gas overtakes solids' accretion was presented by D'Angelo et al., and the same numerical methods are applied here. Those calculations followed the formation for about 4 × 10 5 years, until the epoch when the heavy-element and hydrogen/helium masses were $M_Z ≈ 7.3$ and $M_{XY} ≈ 0.15$ Earth's masses ($M_⊕$), respectively, and $\dot {M} _{XY} ≈ $$\dot {M}_Z$. In this work, the calculation is continued through the phase when $M_{XY}$ grows to equal $M_Z$ , at which age, about 2.4 × 10 6 years, the total mass of the planet is $M_p ≈ 20 M_⊕$. About 9 × 10 5 years later, $M_p$ is approximately $60 M_⊕$ and $M_Z ≈ 16 M_⊕$, three-quarters of which are delivered by planetesimals larger than 10 km in radius. Around this epoch, the contraction of the envelope dictates gas accretion rates a few times 10 –3 $M_⊕$ per year, initiating the regime of disk-limited accretion, whereby the planet can accrete all the gas provided by the disk, and its evolution is therefore tied to disk's evolution. Growth is continued by constructing simplified models of protosolar accretion disks that evolve through viscous diffusion, winds, and accretion on the planet. Jupiter's formation ends after ≈ 3.4–4.2 Myr, depending on the applied disk viscosity parameter, when nebula gas disperses. The young Jupiter is 4.5–5.5 times as voluminous as it is presently and thousands of times as luminous, ~10 –5 $L_⊙$. The heavy-element mass is ≈ 20 $M_⊕$. The evolution proceeds through the cooling and contraction phase, in isolation except for solar irradiation. After 4570 Myr, the age of the solar system, radius and luminosity of the planet are within 10$\%$ of current values, accounting also for uncertainties in the power absorbed from the Sun. During formation, and soon thereafter, the planet exhibits features, e.g., luminosity and effective temperature, that may probe aspects of the latter stages of formation, if observable. These possibly distinctive features, however, seem to disappear within a few tens of Myr.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic risk-based Area of Review (AoR) determination for a deep-saline carbon storage site

Regulatory oversight of a geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) project relies on iterative estimations, throughout the project lifetime, of the area where increased risks to underground sources of drinking water (USDWs) may occur due to injection of CO2. This area, referred to as Area of Review (AoR), is typically delineated by predicting the migration of fluid between the reservoir and the lowermost USDW via an open wellbore using predictions from physics-based reservoir simulators. The inherent uncertainty in input parameters used in reservoir modeling therefore affects the accuracy of determining the AoR for a project. Furthermore, the standard analytical approaches for calculating a critical pressure to delineate the risk area yield an infinite AoR for cases where the injection reservoir is overpressured relative to the USDW. A methodology is presented in this paper to better characterize the risk to USDWs while accounting for the uncertainty in reservoir modeling, with an application to a permitted GCS project with an overpressured injection formation, FutureGen 2.0. The methodology is demonstrated using the National Risk Assessment Partnership’s open-source integrated assessment model (NRAP-Open-IAM) to develop a probabilistic estimate of impact risk to USDW quality. CO2 and pressure predictions from the reservoir modeling conducted using the STOMP-CO2 simulator for the FutureGen 2.0 site are used in a NRAP-Open-IAM model with reservoir, wellbore, and aquifer components to: (1) assess the extent of potential leakage into the USDW for the predicted reservoir pressure conditions; (2) evaluate the extent of potential impact using “no-net-degradation” thresholds; and (3) account for uncertainty in reservoir permeabilities.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Simulated CO 2 storage efficiency factors for saline formations of various lithologies and depositional environments using new experimental relative permeability data

Saline formations are attractive geologic reservoirs for permanent carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage. Here, the U.S. Department of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory (DOE-NETL) has worked to develop and refine methods and tools for the calculation of CO 2 storage potential in subsurface reservoirs. DOE-NETL's CO 2 -SCREEN provides an online tool for executing these storage methods. CO 2 storage efficiency terms are input parameters in DOE-NETL's methods and equations embedded in the CO 2 -SCREEN, which assesses pore space available for CO 2 storage. In this work, a modeling workflow was initiated to refine two CO 2 storage efficiency terms - volumetric displacement (E V ) and microscopic displacement (E d ). The models are based on new experimental relative permeability data that are specific to homogenous lithology and depositional environments of key subsurface saline formations targeted for CO 2 storage. In future work, heterogenous features will be added to this initial modeling effort to update efficiency factors as described in DOE-NETL's methods and CO 2 -SCREEN tool. E V accounts for the volume utilized in the reservoir under the areal plume, while E d accounts for saturation values in the plume to assess efficiency of CO 2 storage at the pore scale. The results of this work are significant in that prior values were based on a limited geologically non-specific relative permeability data set that were collected prior to 2009. Specifically, we applied numerical simulations using TOUGH3 models to update CO 2 storage efficiency values for supercritical CO 2 injection into brine-saturated reservoirs for three lithologies (clastics, limestone, dolomite) and six depositional environments (Marginal Marine, Strand Plain, Deltaic Complex Fluvial, Aeolian, Shallow Marine, and Reef) that have a high potential for geologic CO 2 storage. Experimental relative permeability data in cores from these environments were utilized in the models with corresponding rock type/sedimentary environment. Results of this study showed that dolomite followed by limestone generated higher ranges of storage efficiency compared to clastics. The updated values provided a tighter efficiency range for clastics, lower P 10 but higher P 90 range for limestone, and higher P 10 and P 90 for dolomite. In general, tighter reservoirs with relatively low permeability and porosity were associated with higher E V and E d , showing efficient reservoir and pore utilization in these scenarios. High reservoir pressure and temperature associated with increasing depth increased the E V , and high CO 2 injection rates resulted in increases in E V and E d , while the impact of permeability anisotropy was minimal after the 30-year injection period.

03 NATURAL GAS↗