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At least 433 records · Page 24

Solar proton events as tests for the fidelity of middle atmosphere models

Ozone depletions associated with solar proton events have now been observed in nine events: November 1969, January and September 1971, August 1972, June and August 1979, October 1981, and July and December 1982. Since the proton fluxes during these events are fairly well known from satellite observations, modelers have been able to compare model predictions with observations of ozone behavior during these events to test the validity of atmospheric photochemical models. Ozone decreases initially follow approximately their theoretically predicted behavior below about 45 km (where NOx is thought to cause the ozone decrease), but after about two weeks the observed decrease appears to be larger than the computed decrease. Above 45 km, where HOx is thought to cause the ozone decrease, the picture of model validity is not as clear. The observed ozone decreases between about 45 and 60 km are substantially more than that predicted by present photochemical models while between about 60 and 85 km the observed ozone decrease is approximately equal to that predicted.

Jackman, Charles H.↗

Machine Learning Application to Atmospheric Chemistry Modeling

Atmospheric chemistry is a high-dimensionality, large-data problem and thus may be suited to machine-learning algorithms. We show here the potential of a random forest regression algorithm to replace the gas-phase chemistry solver in the GEOS-Chem chemistry model. In this proof-of-concept study, we used one month of model output to train random forest regression models to predict the concentrations of each long-lived chemical species after integration based upon the physical and chemical conditions before the chemical integration. The choice of prediction type has a strong impact on the skill of the regression model. We find best results from predicting the change in concentration for very long-lived species and the absolute concentration for shorter lived species. The skill of the machine learning algorithm is further improved by using a family approach for NO and NO2 rather than treating them independently.By replacing the numerical integrator with the random forest algorithm and running this model for one month, we find that the model is able to reproduce many of the features of the reference chemistry simulation. Replacing the integration methodology with a machine learning algorithm has the potential to be substantially faster. There are a wide range of applications for such an approach, e.g. to generate boundary conditions, for use in air quality forecasts or chemical data assimilation systems, etc.

Keller, Christoph A.↗

Mars global reference atmosphere model (Mars-GRAM)

Mars-GRAM is an empirical model that parameterizes the temperature, pressure, density, and wind structure of the Martian atmosphere from the surface through thermospheric altitudes. In the lower atmosphere of Mars, the model is built around parameterizations of height, latitudinal, longitudinal, and seasonal variations of temperature determined from a survey of published measurements from the Mariner and Viking programs. Pressure and density are inferred from the temperature by making use of the hydrostatic and perfect gas laws relationships. For the upper atmosphere, the thermospheric model of Stewart is used. A hydrostatic interpolation routine is used to insure a smooth transition from the lower portion of the model to the Stewart thermospheric model. Other aspects of the model are discussed.

Justus, C. G.↗

A first-look atmospheric modeling study of the young directly imaged planet-mass companion, ROXS 42Bb

We present and analyze JK{sub s}L' photometry and our previously published H-band photometry and K-band spectroscopy for ROXs 42Bb, an object Currie et al. first reported as a young directly imaged planet-mass companion. ROXs 42Bb exhibits IR colors redder than field L dwarfs but consistent with other planet-mass companions. From the H{sub 2}O-2 spectral index, we estimate a spectral type of L0 ± 1; weak detections/non-detections of the CO bandheads, Na I, and Ca I support evidence for a young, low surface gravity object primarily derived from the H{sub 2}(K) index. ROXs 42Bb's photometry/K-band spectrum are inconsistent with limiting cases of dust-free atmospheres (COND) and marginally inconsistent with the AMES/DUSTY models and the BT-SETTL models. However, ROXS 42Bb data are simultaneously fit by atmosphere models incorporating several micron-sized dust grains entrained in thick clouds, although further modifications are needed to better reproduce the K-band spectral shape. ROXs 42Bb's best-estimated temperature is T {sub eff} ∼ 1950-2000 K, near the low end of the empirically derived range in Currie et al. For an age of ∼1-3 Myr and considering the lifetime of the protostar phase, ROXs 42Bb's luminosity of log(L/L {sub ☉}) ∼ –3.07 ± 0.07 implies a mass of 9{sub −3}{sup +3} M{sub J} , making it one of the lightest planetary-mass objects yet imaged.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Non-Hydrostatic Variable Resolution Atmospheric Model in ACME (Final Technical Report)

The project goals are divided into five main tasks to be accomplished over three years: Task 1: Implement a nonhydrostatic atmospheric dynamical core in ACME (via HOMME) Task 2: Improve load balancing in variable resolution simulations by extending Zoltan. Task 3: Optimize implicit-explicit time integrators for overcoming the vertical acoustic wave CFL limitation Task 4: Validate the NH dynamical core with DCMIP and AMIP tests on uniform and variable resolution grids Task 5: Apply the NH dynamical core to study and parameterize turbulent mountain stress and orographic gravity wave drag with ultra-high variable resolution grids This report only concerns contributions from the UC Davis team, which includes Co-PI Paul Ullrich, GSR/Postdoc Jorge Guerra, GSR Alan Rhoades, GSR Shiheng Duan, and GSR Jennifer Piaseczny. From the above list, the UC Davis team is responsible for contributions to Tasks 1, 3, 4 and 5.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Laboratory studies of low-temperature reactions of C2H with C2H2 and implications for atmospheric models of Titan

Rate coefficients for the reaction C2H + C2H2 - C4H2 + H are measured over the temperature range 170-350 K. The reactions are carried out in a temperature variable flow cell. C2H radicals are produced by pulsed laser photolysis of C2H2 and a tunable infrared color-center laser is used to probe the transient removal of C2H in absorption to derive the rate coefficients. The rate coefficient is obtained and shown to be independent of temperature over the range 170-350 K. The reaction studied is of central importance for models of the photochemistry of the atmospheres of the outer planets, in particular for the satellite Titan, and the implications of the present results for these models are discussed.

Pedersen, Jens O. P.↗

Parametric Sensitivity and Uncertainty Quantification in the Version 1 of E3SM Atmosphere Model Based on Short Perturbed Parameter Ensemble Simulations

Abstract The atmospheric component of Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 has included many new features in the physics parameterizations compared to its predecessors. Potential complex nonlinear interactions among the new features create a significant challenge for understanding the model behaviors and parameter tuning. Using the one‐at‐a‐time method, the benefit of tuning one parameter may offset the benefit of tuning another parameter, or improvement in one target variable may lead to degradation in another target variable. To better understand the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 model behaviors and physics, we conducted a large number of short simulations (three days) in which 18 parameters carefully selected from parameterizations of deep convection, shallow convection, and cloud macrophysics and microphysics were perturbed simultaneously using the Latin hypercube sampling method. From the perturbed parameter ensemble simulations and use of different skill score functions, we identified the most sensitive parameters, quantified how the model responds to changes of the parameters for both global mean and spatial distribution, and estimated the maximum likelihood of model parameter space for a number of important fidelity metrics. Comparison of the parametric sensitivity using simulations of two different lengths suggests that perturbed parameter ensemble using short simulations has some bearing on understanding parametric sensitivity of longer simulations. Results from this analysis provide a more comprehensive picture of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 behavior. The difficulty in reducing biases in multiple variables simultaneously highlights the need of characterizing model structural uncertainty (so‐called embedded errors) to inform future development efforts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

CondiDiag1.0: a flexible online diagnostic tool for conditional sampling and budget analysis in the E3SM atmosphere model (EAM)

Abstract. Numerical models used in weather and climate prediction take into account a comprehensive set of atmospheric processes (i.e., phenomena) such as the resolved and unresolved fluid dynamics, radiative transfer, cloud and aerosol life cycles, and mass or energy exchanges with the Earth's surface. In order to identify model deficiencies and improve predictive skills, it is important to obtain process-level understanding of the interactions between different processes. Conditional sampling and budget analysis are powerful tools for process-oriented model evaluation, but they often require tedious ad hoc coding and large amounts of instantaneous model output, resulting in inefficient use of human and computing resources. This paper presents an online diagnostic tool that addresses this challenge by monitoring model variables in a generic manner as they evolve within the time integration cycle. The tool is convenient to use. It allows users to select sampling conditions and specify monitored variables at run time. Both the evolving values of the model variables and their increments caused by different atmospheric processes can be monitored and archived. Online calculation of vertical integrals is also supported. Multiple sampling conditions can be monitored in a single simulation in combination with unconditional sampling. The paper explains in detail the design and implementation of the tool in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 1. The usage is demonstrated through three examples: a global budget analysis of dust aerosol mass concentration, a composite analysis of sea salt emission and its dependency on surface wind speed, and a conditionally sampled relative humidity budget. The tool is expected to be easily portable to closely related atmospheric models that use the same or similar data structures and time integration methods.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Insights on Simulating Summer Warming of the Great Lakes: Understanding the Behavior of a Newly Developed Coupled Lake-Atmosphere Modeling System

The Laurentian Great Lakes are the world's largest freshwater system and regulate the climate of the Great Lakes region, which has been increasingly experiencing climatic, hydrological, and ecological changes. An accurate mechanistic representation of the Great Lakes thermal structure in Regional Climate Models (RCMs) is paramount to studying the climate of this region. Currently, RCMs have primarily represented the Great Lakes through coupled one-dimensional (1D) column lake models; this approach works well for small inland lakes but is unable to resolve the realistic hydrodynamics of the Great Lakes and leads to inaccurate representations of lake surface temperature (LST) that influence regional climate and weather patterns. This work overcomes this limitation by developing a fully two-way coupled modeling system using the Weather Research and Forecasting model and a three-dimensional (3D) hydrodynamic model. The coupled model system resolves the interactive physical processes between the atmosphere, lake, and surrounding watersheds; and validated against a range of observational data. The model is then used to investigate the potential impacts of lake-atmosphere coupling on the simulated summer LST of Lake Superior. By evaluating the difference between our two-way coupled modeling system and our observation-driven modeling system, we find that coupled-lake atmosphere dynamics can lead to a higher LST during June-September through higher net surface heat flux entering the lake in June and July and a lower net surface heat flux entering the lake in August and September. The unstratified water in June distributes the entering surface heat flux throughout the water column leading to a minor LST increase, while the stratified waters of July create a conducive thermal structure for the water surface to warm rapidly under the higher incoming surface heat flux. This research provides insight into the coupled modeling system behavior, which is critical for enhancing our predictive understanding of the Great Lakes climate system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Spectral and spatial energetics of the GISS model atmosphere

A calculation of the spectral and spatial energetics of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) 9-level model of the global atmosphere is given. Results are presented from a model simulation of January 1973 and compared with previous model studies and an observational analysis for the Northern Hemisphere. The spectral analysis permits detailed study of those physical processes of scale larger than the grid spacing and allows indirect conclusions concerning unresolved subgrid-scale processes. Major conclusions for larger-than-grid-scale processes are that (1) the GISS model with a relatively coarse resolution of 4 deg latitude by 5 deg longitude produces significant nonlinear energy transfers; and (2) baroclinic conversion is large near planetary wave-number 6, but both the GISS model and another orographic model show a less peaked structure than nonorographic models and observations. A linear fit to the kinetic energy spectrum yields a power law of -2.6 in the wavenumber region 8 to 15. For subgrid-scale processes, the turbulence theory result of very small energy flux cascade is obtained.

Tenenbaum, J.↗

Spherically symmetric, expanding, non-LTE model atmospheres for novae during their early stages

In the continuum and line-blanketed models presented here, nova atmospheres are characterized by a very slow decrease of density with increasing radius. This feature leads to very large geometrical extensions so that there are large temperature differences between the inner and outer parts of the line-forming regions. The theoretical spectra show a large IR excess and a small Balmer jump which may be either in absorption or in emission. For the parameters considered (effective temperature of about 10 exp 4 K, L = 2 x 10 exp 4 solar luminosities, outer boundary density of about 3 x 10 exp -15 g cm exp -3, mass-loss rate of 10 exp -5 solar masses/yr), most lines are in absorption. The effects of changes in the abundances of the heavy elements on the emergent spectra are discussed. The strong unidentified features observed in ultraviolet spectra of novae are found in actuality to be regions of transparency within the Fe 'forest'. Ultraviolet spectra obtained from the IUE archives are displayed, and spectral synthesis of these spectra is done using the theoretical atmospheres.

Hauschildt, P. H.↗

Effects of a transient sea surface temperature anomaly on the energetics of the Mintz-Arakawa model atmosphere

The possible response of the atmosphere, as simulated by the two level Mintz-Arakawa global general circulation model, to a transient North Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly is investigated in terms of the energetics both in the spatial and wave number domains. Results indicate that the transient SST variations of reasonable magnitude in the North Pacific Ocean can induce a disturbing effect on the global energetics both in the spatial and wave number domains. The ability of the two level Mintz-Arakawa model to simulate the atmospheric energetics is also examined. Except in the tropics, the model exhibits a reasonable and realistic energy budget.

Chow, S. H.↗

Process-oriented evaluation using ARM observations to improve clouds and radiation in a global atmospheric model

The goal of the research is to improve understanding of cloud, radiation and precipitation processes and their representation in numerical models for weather and climate using observations from the ARM/ASR program. Global models need to represent all cloud types across different weather regimes from the tropics to the poles and ARM provides long-term observations at different geographical sites that cover these different regimes. Combined with satellite data to give a global context, the observations are used to evaluate the systematic errors in a global model for predictions of cloud, radiation and precipitation. The focus is on understanding the links to underlying physical processes to pinpoint the sources of error and improve the model representation of these processes. The research covers boundary layer cloud over the continental U.S., marine stratocumulus and shallow cumulus in the subtropics, mixed-phase clouds over the Arctic and Southern Ocean, and high-altitude cirrus ice clouds in the tropics. The model used is the operational global weather prediction system at the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The research has led to numerous developments, several of which have been implemented operationally leading to improvements in everyday forecasts. Many of the systematic errors are common across different modelling systems and the wider implications from the research for other weather and climate models are highlighted.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The ALI-ARMS Code for Modeling Atmospheric non-LTE Molecular Band Emissions: Current Status and Applications

The Accelerated Lambda Iteration (ALI) technique was developed in stellar astrophysics at the beginning of 1990s for solving the non-LTE radiative transfer problem in atomic lines and multiplets in stellar atmospheres. It was later successfully applied to modeling the non-LTE emissions and radiative cooling/heating in the vibrational-rotational bands of molecules in planetary atmospheres. Similar to the standard lambda iterations ALI operates with the matrices of minimal dimension. However, it provides higher convergence rate and stability due to removing from the iterating process the photons trapped in the optically thick line cores. In the current ALI-ARMS (ALI for Atmospheric Radiation and Molecular Spectra) code version additional acceleration of calculations is provided by utilizing the opacity distribution function (ODF) approach and "decoupling". The former allows replacing the band branches by single lines of special shape, whereas the latter treats non-linearity caused by strong near-resonant vibration-vibrational level coupling without additional linearizing the statistical equilibrium equations. Latest code application for the non-LTE diagnostics of the molecular band emissions of Earth's and Martian atmospheres as well as for the non-LTE IR cooling/heating calculations are discussed.

Kutepov, A. A.↗

MODELING ATMOSPHERIC EMISSION FOR CMB GROUND-BASED OBSERVATIONS

Atmosphere is one of the most important noise sources for ground-based cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiments. By increasing optical loading on the detectors, it amplifies their effective noise, while its fluctuations introduce spatial and temporal correlations between detected signals. We present a physically motivated 3D-model of the atmosphere total intensity emission in the millimeter and sub-millimeter wavelengths. We derive a new analytical estimate for the correlation between detectors time-ordered data as a function of the instrument and survey design, as well as several atmospheric parameters such as wind, relative humidity, temperature and turbulence characteristics. Using an original numerical computation, we examine the effect of each physical parameter on the correlations in the time series of a given experiment. We then use a parametric-likelihood approach to validate the modeling and estimate atmosphere parameters from the polarbear-i project first season data set. We derive a new 1.0% upper limit on the linear polarization fraction of atmospheric emission. We also compare our results to previous studies and weather station measurements. The proposed model can be used for realistic simulations of future ground-based CMB observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Constructing an advanced software tool for planetary atmospheric modeling

A prototype is described that can serve as a scientific-modeling software tool to facilitate the development of useful scientific models. The prototype is developed for applications to planetary modeling, and specific examples are given that relate to the atmosphere of Titan. The scientific modeling tool employs a high-level domain-specific modeling language, several data-display facilities, and a library of experimental datasets and scientific equations. The planetary modeling prototype links uncomputed physical variables to computed variables with computational transformations based on a backchaining procedure. The system - implemented in LISP with an object-oriented knowledge-representation tool - is run on a workstation that provides interface with several models. The prototype is expected to form the basis for a sophisticated modeling tool that can permit active experimentation.

Keller, Richard M.↗

The 2006 Cape Canaveral Air Force Station Range Reference Atmosphere Model Validation Study and Sensitivity Analysis to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Space Shuttle

The 2006 Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) Range Reference Atmosphere (RRA) is a statistical model summarizing the wind and thermodynamic atmospheric variability from surface to 70 kin. Launches of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Space Shuttle from Kennedy Space Center utilize CCAFS RRA data to evaluate environmental constraints on various aspects of the vehicle during ascent. An update to the CCAFS RRA was recently completed. As part of the update, a validation study on the 2006 version was conducted as well as a comparison analysis of the 2006 version to the existing CCAFS RRA database version 1983. Assessments to the Space Shuttle vehicle ascent profile characteristics were performed to determine impacts of the updated model to the vehicle performance. Details on the model updates and the vehicle sensitivity analyses with the update model are presented.

Burns, Lee↗