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At least 433 records · Page 24
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Limits to forests-based mitigation in integrated assessment modelling: global potentials and impacts under constraining factors

Forests-based measures such as afforestation/reforestation (A/R) and reducing deforestation (RDF) are considered promising options to mitigate climate change, yet their mitigation potentials are limited by economic and biophysical factors that are largely uncertain. The range of mitigation potential estimates from integrated assessment models raises concerns about the capacity of land systems to provide realistic, cost-effective and permanent land-based mitigation. We use the Global Change Analysis Model to quantify the economic mitigation potential of forests-based measures by simulating a climate policy including a tax on greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture, forestry, and other land uses. In addition, we assess how constraining unused arable land (UAL) availability, forestland expansion rates, and global bioenergy demand may influence the forests-based mitigation potential by simulating scenarios with alternative combinations of constraints. Results show that the average forests-based mitigation potential in 2020–2050 increases from 738 MtCO 2 .yr -1 through a forestland increase of 86 Mha in the fully constrained scenario to 1394 MtCO 2 .yr -1 through a forestland increase of 146 Mha when all constraints are relaxed. Regional potentials in terms of A/R and RDF differ strongly between scenarios: unconstrained forest expansion rates mostly increase A/R potentials in northern regions (e.g., +120 MtCO 2 .yr -1 in North America); while unconstrained UAL conversion and low bioenergy demand mostly increase RDF potentials in tropical regions (e.g., +76 and +68 MtCO 2 .yr -1 in Southeast Asia, respectively). This study shows that forests-based mitigation is limited by many factors that constrain the rates of land use change across regions. These factors, often overlooked in modelling exercises, should be carefully addressed for understanding the role of forests in global climate mitigation and defining pledges towards the Paris Agreement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Projected evolution of droughts and human exposure in the contiguous United States under SSP5-8.5: a regional downscaling perspective

The increasingly unpredictable and extreme weather patterns under a warming climate underscore the urgency of accurate regional assessments of future drought risk. This study evaluates the projected drought evolution in the contiguous United States under the high-emission shared socioeconomic pathway 5–8.5 climate scenario for the coming decades. Using a multi-model ensemble of six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 global climate models combined with dynamical downscaling techniques, we analyzed near-term (2020–2039) and mid-term (2040–2059) drought patterns using the self-calibrating palmer drought severity index (ScPDSI), the standardized precipitation index (SPI-12), and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI-12). Results reveal a widespread increase in abnormally dry (D0) and moderate drought (D1) conditions, particularly in urban areas, while severe (D2), extreme (D3), and exceptional (D4) droughts are expected to become less common in many regions. Meanwhile, persistent and intensifying droughts are projected in the western and southwestern U.S., driven by long-term soil moisture deficits. The ScPDSI projects that 1.1 million urban residents will be affected by D0 conditions in 2050, while SPI-12 suggests a decrease in the total affected populations after 2040. ScPDSI indicates prolonged droughts in the West, and SPI-12 captures transient variability. Although the total drought-exposed population is expected to decrease, urban areas will continue to bear a greater burden, particularly for mild droughts (D0, D1). These findings highlight a shift toward more frequent mild droughts, fewer severe droughts, and persistent drying in the Southwest, emphasizing the need for region-specific adaptation strategies.

CMIP6↗
DOE OSTI2026

Pathways of bio-jet adoption in the US aviation industry with implications for the overall transportation and energy sectors: an integrated, multi-sectoral analysis of future scenarios

Bio-jet adoption has emerged as an attractive option to complement and supplement the use of refined fossil liquid fuels in the aviation industry in the US. However, there are significant uncertainties surrounding the costs of bio-jet including but not limited to costs of feedstock, transformation costs and the competition with co-products of bio-jet that may be demanded elsewhere in the transportation or energy sectors. This study models alternative trajectories of bio-jet adoption in the US aviation industry by 2050 through the use of a global integrated multi sector dynamics model. Three bio-jet production and consumption pathways are presented- soybean oil to jet, corn ethanol to jet (ETJ) and Fisher–Tropsch-based bio-jet, with each pathway explicitly considering the co-production of renewable diesel and renewable gasoline alongside the bio-jet. Without explicit actions or technology changes to offset the technology cost of bio-jet, scenarios where bio-jet displaces refined liquids result in higher aviation fuel prices (ranging from a 25% increase to 120% increase by mid-century) and lower demand (ranging from −14% to −43%). Corn ethanol will play an important role in the US if large scale amounts of bio-jet are to be produced with smaller effects on demand and prices. While scenarios with high levels of bio-jet availability without the availability of ETJ in the US can significantly reduce emissions in the aviation sector, these reductions are achieved more through the reduction in overall aviation fuel demand rather than technology adoption.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

When energy doesn’t add up: use of an energyshed framework in assessing progress towards renewable energy transitions

Global progress in energy transitions to support climate mitigation goals has been slower than anticipated; this has prompted shifts away from traditional paradigms of regulated energy ownership towards a model of energy democratization by local communities and individuals. For example, in the United States, local communities in over 250 cities, counties, and states have made pledges to reach 100% renewable electrification by target dates ranging from 2020 to 2050. However, the availability of infrastructure and the competition for renewable energy resources, as well as lack of awareness of these limitations, present significant barriers to overcome. In this study, we explored a subset of 31 of these cities to assess their current electricity generation and how much further they have to go to meet their goals. Through an energyshed framework, we estimated powerplant electricity allocation to each city assuming competition for power from various renewable and non-renewable resource types, as well as look at the ‘best case scenario’ assuming 100% allocation of renewable-sourced electricity for a handful of cities in order to understand the existing and planned energy mixes for 2021 and the following 20 years. It is likely most cities will meet 10% of their energy demand with renewable energy, with best cases scenarios reaching between 35% and 65% renewable penetration, within the next 20–30 years. This highlights the need for infrastructural development in the energy sector, as well as intentional planning efforts in order to make these energy goals a reality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Kicking the can down the road: understanding the effects of delaying the deployment of stratospheric aerosol injection

Abstract Climate change is a prevalent threat, and it is unlikely that current mitigation efforts will be enough to avoid unwanted impacts. One potential option to reduce climate change impacts is the use of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI). Even if SAI is ultimately deployed, it might be initiated only after some temperature target is exceeded. The consequences of such a delay are assessed herein. This study compares two cases, with the same target global mean temperature of ∼1.5° C above preindustrial, but start dates of 2035 or a ‘delayed’ start in 2045. We make use of simulations in the Community Earth System Model version 2 with the Whole Atmosphere Coupled Chemistry Model version 6 (CESM2-WACCM6), using SAI under the SSP2-4.5 emissions pathway. We find that delaying the start of deployment (relative to the target temperature) necessitates lower net radiative forcing (−30%) and thus larger sulfur dioxide injection rates (+20%), even after surface temperatures converge, to compensate for the extra energy absorbed by the Earth system. Southern hemisphere ozone is higher from 2035 to 2050 in the delayed start scenario, but converges to the same value later in the century. However, many of the surface climate differences between the 2035 and 2045 start simulations appear to be small during the 10–25 years following the delayed SAI start, although longer simulations would be needed to assess any longer-term impacts in this model. In addition, irreversibilities and tipping points that might be triggered during the period of increased warming may not be adequately represented in the model but could change this conclusion in the real world.

Brody, Ezra (ORCID:000900030008681X)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Near-term heatwave risk in HighResMIP models across different temperature zones of West Africa

This study projects near-future (2031–2050) changes in heatwave (HW) risk across West Africa (WA) using an ensemble of eight high-resolution global climate models from the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project under a high-emission scenario. Using K-means clustering, we divided WA into four unique temperature zones and examined projected changes in extreme temperatures, HW occurrence and magnitude. Our results indicate a statistically significant increase in future HW events across most parts of WA, although considerable spread exists over the region and among individual models. The most pronounced increases are evident in the Sahel/Sahara and the Guinea Highlands subregions, with an ensemble mean increase of ∼10 HW events per year. In contrast, the lowest increase in HW events is projected in central WA, with increases ranging between 1 and 5 events per year. Similarly, the magnitude of HW events is projected to increase in most models, with Sahel/Sahara exhibiting the largest increases. Additionally, projections suggest that the strongest HWs will become more frequent, particularly in northern and southwestern WA. These findings highlight significant spatial heterogeneity in future HW risk across WA, emphasizing the need for targeted adaptation strategies.

HighResMIP↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impact Analysis of Future Electric Vehicles Using Model of Real Distribution Feeders

Globally, the number of electric vehicles (EVs) continues to increase. This on-going trend poses challenges for power distribution systems. The inclusion of electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) should be compatible with a changing energy system, whose structure is becoming increasingly distributed. The impact of future EVs should be analyzed and considered in the system planning and upgrades. In this study, impact analysis of future EVs is conducted for a utility company of U.S. West Coast. Real data of distribution feeders is converted into the GridLAB-D model for running power flow analysis. An estimation of the additional loading of EVs in 2050 is provided by the utility company. Simple mitigation methods are tested to improve voltage profiles and complete this case study.

Xie, Jing↗
DOE OSTI2024

Weather Sensitive High Spatio-Temporal Resolution Transportation Electric Load Profiles For Multiple Decarbonization Pathways

Electrification of transport compounded with climate change will transform hourly load profiles and their response to weather. We present a novel approach to generating hourly electric load profiles that considers charging strategies and evolving sensitivity to temperature. The approach consists of downscaling annual state-scale sectoral load projections from the multisectoral Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) into hourly electric load profiles leveraging high resolution climate and population datasets. Profiles are developed and evaluated at the Balancing Authority scale, with a 5-year increment until 2050 over the Western U.S. Interconnect for multiple decarbonization pathways and climate scenarios. The datasets are readily available for production cost model analysis. Our open source approach is transferable to other regions.

Decarbonization, tranportation, Electric vehicle c↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Tutorial on the Control of Floating Offshore Wind Turbines: Stability Challenges and Opportunities for Power Capture

Climate change is a serious threat facing humanity. The United States (U.S.) and many other countries are increasing the amount of electrical power generated from renewable energy sources in an effort to combat climate change and ensure energy independence. The U.S. has set goals to achieve a 100% decarbonized electric grid by 2035 and a net-zero emissions economy by no later than 2050. Renewable energy currently accounts for about 20% of the U.S. power grid. According to the U.S. Department of Energy and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), in the U.S. in 2021, wind and solar photovoltaic generation supplied 9.1% and 4% of total electricity generation, respectively, and the latest publicly available data show that hydropower represented 6.6% of all electricity generated in the U.S. in 2019. As wind farms have been built in many of the best wind resource areas on land, the U.S. and many other countries are turning to offshore wind for further growth of wind power capacity. Further, the U.S. has committed to deploy 30 GW of offshore wind by 2030, a significant increase from the 0.04 GW of installed offshore wind in the country as of the end of 2023. Many other countries have also established ambitious goals or plans to increase the amount of installed offshore wind power.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impedance Methods for Analyzing Stability Impacts of Inverter-Based Resources: Stability Analysis Tools for Modern Power Systems

Power systems around the world are undergoing a major transformation because of the increasing shares of renewable energy, growing deployment of energy storage systems, proliferation of distributed energy resources, electrification of other sectors, and so on. In the United States, wind and solar provided almost 10% of electricity in 2019. The U.S. Energy Information Administration, in its 2020 Annual Energy Outlook, forecasted that the share of electricity from renewables will reach 38% by 2050, of which more than 80% will come from wind and solar. Wind and solar, along with battery energy storage systems, interface with the grid using power electronic inverters; hence, they are collectively referred to as inverter-based resources (IBRs). The increasing annual share of electricity from IBRs in a power system means that during more times of the year, the system will operate at a much higher concentration of IBRs. Figure 1 presents the hourly share of wind and solar generation in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) system in Texas in 2019. While the annual wind share was at 20%, the instantaneous percentage share was much higher. Moments of high shares of IBRs (>50%) will continue to grow as more IBRs will be deployed in a power system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multifold Insights for Power System Dynamics From Data Assimilation: Meeting Current Challenges

The world’s electric power grids have evolved over the last 120 years from a single power line to today’s large networks. The evolution will continue at an accelerated rate with extensive smart grid development worldwide. Here for example, the U.S. government has set a goal of reaching 100 percent carbon pollution-free electricity by 2035, while the Department of Energy (DOE) shared a goal to deploy 30 GW and 110 GW of offshore wind by 2030 and 2050, respectively. To meet such ambitious goals, in the years to come, a significant percentage of electricity will come from intermittent renewable sources, electric vehicles (EVs), and be supplied to a vast number of loads that will actively respond to grid conditions and incentive signals. This development is largely driven by environmental and economic factors, such as reducing carbon emissions and saving electricity cost for consumers. These energy resources lead to new uncertain behaviors and dynamics which the grid has never seen and were not considered in its design. Operating such a dynamic grid with sufficient reliability and efficiency is a monumental challenge.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Distribution System Planning for Growth in Residential Electric Vehicle Adoption

Anticipated growth in Electric Vehicles (EV) adoption could stress distribution system circuits beyond their original design limits. Uncertainties related to when households will begin buying EVs in large numbers challenges existing distribution system planning approaches and complicates efforts to assess grid impacts. Anticipated location, timing, and demand for EV charging is critical information for distribution system planners as it guides investment strategies for infrastructure upgrades to ensure continued reliability. This research makes two significant contributions: an EV adoption model that uses socioeconomic data to forecast location and year-specific adoption patterns through a bottoms-up approach, and an EV hosting capacity assessment methodology that offers improvements to current utility planning and asset management practices for infrastructure investments. Both contributions are applied to a Southern California Edison feeder in 7 adoption years from 2025 to 2050, with the results indicating that they are likely valuable additions to distribution systems planning capabilities.

Sridhar, Siddharth↗
DOE OSTI2021

Towards Decarbonization: Establishing a Sustainable, Equitable, Diverse Workforce in the U.S. Photovoltaic Industry

Decarbonizing the U.S. electric grid by 2035 and the broader U.S. economy by 2050 have been identified as targets to avoid more severe climate change effects. Photovoltaics (PV) is expected to play a major role in any decarbonization efforts, and this would involve significant expansion and development of the PV workforce. This work quantifies the size of the workforce required for high levels of PV deployment that could achieve decarbonization. The demographics of the current workforce are reviewed, and existing workforce development initiatives are reviewed with respect to the magnitude needed for decarbonization, with a focus on equity and diversity.

decarbonization↗
DOE OSTI2021

Revisiting the Effects of Photovoltaic Module Efficiency on Installed System Cost and Market Adoption

We conduct bottom-up analysis of how PV module efficiency could influence residential rooftop installed system costs, using models with improved representation of how soft costs and power electronics are affected by efficiency. We show that the amount of system installed cost savings resulting from high efficiency modules depends on whether or not the system is area-constrained, with much larger savings for the area-constrained case. We then estimate the fraction of physically area-constrained rooftops in the United States to be 61%, with variation between 20% to over 80% of rooftops depending on the state. We find that fraction of area-constrained systems could grow to over 88% by 2050 if building and transportation loads are electrified.

efficiency↗
DOE OSTI2020

The impact of interventions in the global land and agri-food sectors on Nature’s Contributions to People and the UN Sustainable Development Goals

Interlocked challenges of climate change, biodiversity loss and land degradation require transformative interventions in the land management and food production sectors to reduce carbon emissions, strengthen adaptive capacity, and maintain or increase food production to 2050. However, deciding which interventions to pursue and understanding their relative synergies with and trade-offs against different social and environmental goals has been difficult without direct comparisons across a range of possible actions. This study examined a series of 40 different options, implemented through land, value chain or risk management, for their relative impacts across 18 Nature’s Contributions to People (also known as ecosystem services) and the 17 Sustainable Development Goals. We find that a relatively small number of interventions show significant positive synergies with both SDGs and NCPs; these include improved cropland management, improved grazing land management, improved livestock management, agroforestry, agricultural diversification, increased soil organic carbon content, reduced soil erosion, salinization and compaction, fire management, reduced landslides and hazards, reduced pollution, management of invasive species, sustainable source, and reduced post-harvest losses. Several interventions show strong negative impacts on either SDGs, NCPs or in some cases, both; these include bioenergy and BECCS, afforestation, and some risk sharing measures, like commercial crop insurance. Our results demonstrate that a better understanding of benefits and trade-offs of comparative policy approaches can help decision-makers choose the most effective, or at the very minimum, benign interventions for implementation in specific contexts.

Mcelwee, Pam↗
DOE OSTI2022

Annual carbon sequestration and loss rates under altered hydrology and fire regimes in southeastern USA pocosin peatlands

Peatlands drained for agriculture or forestry are susceptible to the rapid release of greenhouse gases (GHGs) through enhanced microbial decomposition and increased frequency of deep peat fires. We present evidence that rewetting drained subtropical wooded peatlands (STWPs) along the southeastern USA coast, primarily pocosin bogs, could prevent significant carbon (C) losses. To quantify GHG emissions and storage from drained and rewetted pocosin we used eddy covariance techniques, the first such estimates that have been applied to this major bog type, on a private drained (PD) site supplemented by static chamber measurements at PD and Pocosin Lakes National Wildlife Refuge. Net ecosystem exchange measurements showed that the loss was 21.2 Mg CO2 ha –1 year –1 (1 Mg = 10 6 g) in the drained pocosin. Under a rewetted scenario, where the annual mean water table depth (WTD) decreased from 60 to 30 cm, the C loss was projected to fall to 2 Mg CO 2 ha –1 year –1 , a 94% reduction. If the WTD was 20 cm, the peatlands became a net carbon sink (–3.3 Mg CO2 ha –1 year –1 ). Hence, net C reductions could reach 24.5 Mg CO 2 ha –1 year –1 , and when scaled up to the 4000 ha PD site nearly 100,000 Mg CO 2 year –1 of creditable C could be amassed. We conservatively estimate among the 0.75 million ha of southeastern STWPs, between 450 and 770 km 2 could be rewet, reducing annual GHG emissions by 0.96–1.6 Tg (1 Tg = 10 12 g) of CO 2 , through suppressed microbial decomposition and 1.7–2.8 Tg via fire prevention, respectively. Despite covering <0.01% of US land area, rewetting drained pocosin can potentially provide 2.4% of the annual CO 2 nationwide reduction target of 0.18 Pg (1 Pg = 10 15 g). Finally, suggesting pocosin restoration can contribute disproportionately to the US goal of achieving net-zero emission by 2050.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Doubling protected land area may be inefficient at preserving the extent of undeveloped land and could cause substantial regional shifts in land use

Abstract Projection of land use and land‐cover change is highly uncertain yet drives critical estimates of carbon emissions, climate change, and food and bioenergy production. We use new, spatially explicit land availability data in conjunction with a model sensitivity analysis to estimate the effects of additional land protection on land use and land cover. The land availability data include protected land and agricultural suitability and is incorporated into the Moirai land data system for initializing the Global Change Analysis Model. Overall, decreasing land availability is relatively inefficient at preserving undeveloped land while having considerable regional land‐use impacts. Current amounts of protected area have little effect on land and crop production estimates, but including the spatial distribution of unsuitable (i.e., unavailable) land dramatically shifts bioenergy production from high northern latitudes to the rest of the world, compared with uniform availability. This highlights the importance of spatial heterogeneity in understanding and managing land change. Approximately doubling the current protected area to emulate a 30% protected area target may avoid land conversion by 2050 of less than half the newly protected extent while reducing bioenergy feedstock land by 10.4% and cropland and grazed pasture by over 3%. Regional bioenergy land may be reduced (increased) by up to 46% (36%), cropland reduced by up to 61%, pasture reduced by up to 100%, and harvested forest reduced by up to 35%. Only a few regions show notable gains in some undeveloped land types of up to 36%. Half of the regions can reach the target using only unsuitable land, which would minimize impacts on agriculture but may not meet conservation goals. Rather than focusing on an area target, a more robust approach may be to carefully select newly protected land to meet well‐defined conservation goals while minimizing impacts to agriculture.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Accelerating the development of a sustainable bioenergy portfolio through stable isotopes

Bioenergy could help limit global warming to 2°C above pre-industrial levels while supplying almost a fourth of the world's renewable energy needs by 2050. However, the deployment of bioenergy raises concerns that adoption at meaningful scales may lead to unintended negative environmental consequences. Meanwhile, the full consolidation of a bioenergy industry is currently challenged by a sufficient, resilient, and resource-efficient biomass supply and an effective conversion process. Here, we provide a comprehensive analysis of how stable isotope approaches have accelerated the development of a robust bioeconomy by advancing knowledge about environmental sustainability, feedstock development, and biological conversion. We show that advances in stable isotope research have generated crucial information to (1) gain mechanistic insight into the potential of bioenergy crops to mitigate climate change as well as their impact on water and nutrient cycling; (2) develop high-yielding, resilient feedstocks that produce high-value bioproducts in planta; and (3) engineer microbes to enhance feedstock conversion to bioenergy products. Further, we highlight knowledge gaps that could benefit from future research facilitated by stable isotope approaches. We conclude that advances in mechanistic knowledge and innovations within the field of stable isotopes in cross-disciplinary research actions will greatly contribute to breaking down the barriers to establishing a robust bioeconomy.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗