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At least 415 records · Page 23
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

A coupled human–natural system analysis of freshwater security under climate and population change

Limited water availability, population growth, and climate change have resulted in freshwater crises in many countries. Jordan’s situation is emblematic, compounded by conflict-induced population shocks. Integrating knowledge across hydrology, climatology, agriculture, political science, geography, and economics, we present the Jordan Water Model, a nationwide coupled human–natural-engineered systems model that is used to evaluate Jordan’s freshwater security under climate and socioeconomic changes. The complex systems model simulates the trajectory of Jordan’s water system, representing dynamic interactions between a hierarchy of actors and the natural and engineered water environment. A multiagent modeling approach enables the quantification of impacts at the level of thousands of representative agents across sectors, allowing for the evaluation of both systemwide and distributional outcomes translated into a suite of water-security metrics (vulnerability, equity, shortage duration, and economic well-being). Model results indicate severe, potentially destabilizing, declines in freshwater security. Per capita water availability decreases by approximately 50% by the end of the century. Without intervening measures, >90% of the low-income household population experiences critical insecurity by the end of the century, receiving <40 L per capita per day. Widening disparity in freshwater use, lengthening shortage durations, and declining economic welfare are prevalent across narratives. To gain a foothold on its freshwater future, Jordan must enact a sweeping portfolio of ambitious interventions that include large-scale desalinization and comprehensive water sector reform, with model results revealing exponential improvements in water security through the coordination of supply- and demand-side measures.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Validation of the SCALE/Polaris–PARCS Code Procedure With the ENDF/B-VII.1 AMPX 56-Group Library: Boiling Water Reactor

The SCALE/Polaris–PARCS code procedure has been used in the confirmatory analysis for boiling water reactors by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. In this study, the SCALE/Polaris v6.3.0–PARCS v3.4.2 code procedure with the Evaluated Nuclear Data File (ENDF)/B-VII.1 AMPX 56-group library was validated by comparing the simulated results with the measured data for operating boiling water reactors, including Peach Bottom Unit 2 cycles 1–3, Hatch Unit 1 cycles 1–3, and Quad Cities Unit 1 cycles 1–3. The uncertainties and biases of the SCALE/Polaris–PARCS code package for boiling water reactor physics analysis were evaluated in the validation for key nuclear parameters such as reactivity and traversing in-core probe data.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Structural Differences between Morning and Evening Peak in Optimized Water Heaters

Peak reduction is an important concern that can help reduce the growing stress on distribution grids and allow to defer investments in new capacity. Water heaters represent a convenient way of reducing peak, depending on controllability of devices. But while controlling water heaters does allow to shift peak, it also results in rebound effects, which require additional understanding before water heater fleets can be used on a large scale. We attempt to investigate the nature of peak behaviors of water heaters and demonstrate that water heaters are not homogenous in their behavior. Depending on the overall intensity of the use of water, part of the population has higher rebound effect, while part of the population has little or no rebound effect. Even though we do not have sufficient data to statistically evaluate our findings, we use a sample of 42 water heaters in a connected neighborhood to provide an early attempt at discovering and reporting this diversity.

Tsybina, Eve↗
DOE OSTI2021

Beneath the Bark: Assessing Woody Stem Water and Carbon Fluxes and Its Prevalence Across Climates and the Woody Plant Phylogeny

While woody stems are known to influence carbon and water dynamics, direct exchange with the atmosphere is seldom quantified, limiting our understanding of how these processes influence the exchange of mass and energy. The presence of woody stem chlorophyll in a diversity of climates and across a range of species suggests an evolutionary advantage to sustaining carbon assimilation and water relations through permeable stem tissue. However, no formal evaluation of this hypothesis has been performed. In this mini-review, we explore the interactions between woody stems and the atmosphere by examining woody stem photosynthesis and bark-atmosphere water exchange. Specifically, we address the following questions: (1) How do water and carbon move between the atmosphere and woody stems? (2) In what climate space is woody stem photosynthesis and bark water uptake advantageous? (3) How ubiquitous across plant families is woody stem photosynthesis and bark-atmosphere water exchange? In the literature, only seven species have been identified as exhibiting bark water uptake while over 300 species are thought to conduct woody stem photosynthesis. The carbon dioxide and water gained from these processes can offset respiration costs and improve plant water balance. These species span diverse biomes suggesting a broad prevalence of bark-atmosphere permeability. Finally, our results demonstrate that there may be an evolutionary component as demonstrated by a high Pagel’s lambda for the presence of stem photosynthesis. We end with recommendations for future research that explores how bark water and carbon interactions may impact plant function and mass flow in a changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Life-cycle analysis of soybean meal, distiller-dried grains with solubles, and synthetic amino acid-based animal feeds for swine and poultry production

Swine and poultry meat production are two important sectors in the U.S. economy. They play an important role in environmental sustainability because they contribute to the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as the result of agricultural and production activities. To improve the sustain ability of swine and poultry meat production, it is important to understand the environmental effects and identify the key drivers of the production activities. In this work, we presented an environmental assessment of the production of swine (i.e., pork) and poultry (i.e., broiler chicken). We conducted a life-cycle analysis of formulating animal feeds using soybean meal, corn, distiller-dried grains with solubles (DDGS), and synthetic amino acids as candidate ingredients to produce swine and poultry. We evaluated GHG emissions, fossil fuel consumption, and water consumption from formulating and utilizing a variety of animal feeds based on these ingredients for swine and poultry production, using an expanded version of the Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Transportation (GREET (R)) model. With pork and broiler chicken as the finished products, the functional unit was defined as one kg of live-weight animal at the farm gate. Feed production was the major contributor to the life-cycle GHG emissions (88 % and 91 % of the total GHG emissions for swine and poultry production, respectively) and fossil fuel consumption (79 % and 84 % of the total fossil fuel consumption for swine and poultry process, respectively). Among the four ingredient types, amino acids had the biggest GHG emission footprint; however, DDGS had the largest effect on increasing GHG emissions of swine and poultry production.

animal feed production↗
DOE OSTI2022

Stochastic simulation of occupant-driven energy use in a bottom-up residential building stock model

The residential buildings sector is one of the largest electricity consumers worldwide and contributes disproportionally to peak electricity demand in many regions. Strongly driven by occupant activities, household energy consumption is stochastic and heterogeneous in nature. However, most residential energy models applied by industry use homogeneous, deterministic activity schedules, which work well for predictions of annual energy consumption, but can result in unrealistic hourly or sub-hourly electric load profiles, with exaggerated or muted peaks. The increasing proportion of variable renewable energy generators means that representing the heterogeneity and stochasticity of occupant behavior is now crucial for reliable planning at both bulk-power and distribution-system scales. This work presents a novel and open-source occupancy simulation approach that can simulate a diverse set of individual occupant and household event schedules for all major electricity, fuel, and hot water end uses. To accomplish this, we evaluated three alternative occupant activity simulation approaches before selecting a hybrid combining time-inhomogeneous Markov chains and probability-sampling of event durations and magnitudes. Further, we integrated the stochastic occupancy simulation with an open-source bottom-up physics-simulation building stock model and published a set of 550,000 diverse household end-use activity schedules representing a national housing stock. The simulator was verified against time-use survey data, and simulation results were validated against measured end-use electricity data for accuracy and reliability. While we use data for the United States, our application demonstrates how similar approaches could be applied using the time-use survey data collected in many countries around the world.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Unified Entrainment and Detrainment Closures for Extended Eddy-Diffusivity Mass-Flux Schemes

The extended Eddy Diffusivity Mass Flux (EDMF) scheme is used as a unied parameterization that simulates subgrid-scale dynamics across a range of regimes.This work presents unied entrainment and detrainment closures that allow this scheme to simulate the dry convective boundary layer, shallow convection and deep convection , while adjacent works present other necessary closures for this unied scheme and test its performance for stable, stratocumulus topped and convective boundary layers. Entrainment and detrainment are modeled as a combination of turbulent and dynamical processes. The turbulent component is taken as downgradient diffusion between subdomains. The dynamical component is based on a ratio of buoyancy and vertical velocity that ensures consistent treatment of the ratio of mass-flux at vanishing area fraction. Dynamical detrainment is controlled by the difference in relative humidity between subdomains when liquid water is present. These closures are rst evaluated with entrainment and detrainment diagnosed from Large Eddy Simulations where decaying tracers are used to identify the different subdomains and mass exchanges between them. When implemented in a single column model (SCM), these closures are tested in simulations of several observationally motivated cases of dry convective boundary layer, shallow convection and deep convection. Results show good agreement between the SCM and Large Eddy Simulations in key properties for climate models and profiles of first, second and third moments. The development of diurnal cycles and the onset of and precipitation (with simplified microphysics) are well predicted by the SCM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Remote Sensing of Live Fuel Moisture for Wildfires Using SMAP Satellite Observations

Live Fuel Moisture (LFM) is a critical parameter for wildfire risk assessment, traditionally measured by labor-intensive field sampling. However, sampled LFM data are influenced by site-specific factors, such as local vegetation types and plant traits, and are often collected retrospectively after wildfire events, making it difficult to obtain pre-fire data for predictive applications. Here, we evaluate the relationship between LFM and Vegetation Water Content (VWC) and Soil Moisture (SM) retrieved from SMAP L-band brightness temperature using the Maximum Entropy Production (MEP) approach. The MEP-retrieved VWC exhibited strong correlation with in situ measurements of LFM ( r > 0.6) in the Western U.S. The integration of high-resolution vegetation coverage data enhances the detection of sub-grid vegetation heterogeneity. This study demonstrates the operational potential of remote sensing derived VWC as a scalable proxy of LFM, supporting its application in regional assessment of wildfire risk.

Cho, Kyeungwoo [Georgia Institute of Technology, A↗
DOE OSTI2020

Non-autoregressive time-series methods for stable parametric reduced-order models

Advection-dominated dynamical systems, characterized by partial differential equations, are found in applications ranging from weather forecasting to engineering design where accuracy and robustness are crucial. There has been significant interest in the use of techniques borrowed from machine learning to reduce the computational expense and/or improve the accuracy of predictions for these systems. These rely on the identification of a basis that reduces the dimensionality of the problem and the subsequent use of time series and sequential learning methods to forecast the evolution of the reduced state. Often, however, machine-learned predictions after reduced-basis projection are plagued by issues of stability stemming from incomplete capture of multiscale processes as well as due to error growth for long forecast durations. To address these issues, we have developed a non-autoregressive time series approach for predicting linear reduced-basis time histories of forward models. In particular, we demonstrate that non-autoregressive counterparts of sequential learning methods such as long short-term memory (LSTM) considerably improve the stability of machine-learned reduced-order models. Further, we evaluate our approach on the inviscid shallow water equations and show that a non-autoregressive variant of the standard LSTM approach that is bidirectional in the principal component directions obtains the best accuracy for recreating the nonlinear dynamics of partial observations. Moreover-and critical for many applications of these surrogates-inference times are reduced by three orders of magnitude using our approach, compared with both the equation-based Galerkin projection method and the standard LSTM approach.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

High-precision vapor pressure measurement apparatus with facile and inexpensive construction

This study describes an apparatus for high-precision variable temperature measurement of liquid vapor pressure. The apparatus can be used to measure the vapor pressure using only 0.5 ml of the liquid sample. To evaluate the accuracy of the device measurement, water and 2-propanol are utilized as standard liquids, and their vapor pressure is measured with a maximum uncertainty of ~1%. This apparatus can be replicated using inexpensive and commonly used laboratory fittings and fixtures, making it an indispensable tool for synthetic chemists and chemical engineers involved in the iterative synthesis of compounds, targeting different vapor–liquid equilibrium regimes.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2022

COVID-19 Technical Assistance Program: Agrivoltaic for Rural Economic Development and Electric Grids Resilience

Over the past 50 years, the Renewable Energy Program at Sandia has advanced research in the field with a focus on three key goals; 1) reduce the cost, 2) improve resilience and reliability and, 3) decrease the regulatory burden of renewable energy. Sandia’s expertise, coupled with the Village of Questa’s expanding renewable energy portfolio, presents the opportunity to deploy the Labs’ deep science and engineering capabilities towards the energy goals of KCEC and the Village of Questa. Preliminary research efforts by Sandia technical staff has broadly identified early opportunities for further research, development, and demonstration in the emerging renewable energy segment of agrivoltaics. Agrivoltaics is an emerging and promising area of photovoltaics which entails land use considerations as well as concerns regarding landscape transformation, biodiversity, and ecosystem well-being. In recent years, agrivoltaics systems have been the subject of numerous studies due to their potential in the food-energy (and water) nexus. This document is a preliminary evaluation of the projects performance opportunities of agrivoltaics as a renewable energy technology strategy in the region of Questa, NM.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling of Reactor Design and Optimization for Scale-Up of the Catalyxx Process for Ethanol Conversion to Higher Alcohol Biofuels

This report summarizes the results of a collaborative efforts between Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and Catalyxx Inc. to investigate scale-up of Catalyxx’s Ethanol upgrading to higher alcohols process. The study was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) under CRADA (Cooperative Research and Development Agreement) No: NFE-20-08396. The project is part of the Direct Funding Opportunity (DFO) for Computational Science to Enable Bioenergy program which utilized computational toolsets developed by the Consortium for Computational Physics and Chemistry, a multi-laboratory consortium in BETO. The report here summarizes a packed-bed reactor modeling effort spanning the range from lab to industrial scale (from 4 gram to 5-ton catalyst beds), and examining reactor design, process optimization strategies, and suggested design and operating conditions for Catalyxx’s ethanol upgrading plants. The results in this report have been shared in monthly steering meetings and presentations are available in the shared data house owned by Catalyxx. The modeling effort helped to define optimum operation conditions for maximum alcohol selectivity and yield: i.e., temperature control scenarios ranging from adiabatic to isothermal, feed rate, pressure, and inlet H 2 /Ethanol ratio. The modeling results were verified at lab-(4 gram) and pre-pilot (4 kg) scales and has been used to evaluate a 5-ton packed-bed reactor and identify operating conditions to maximize the butanol yield. Special focus was given to understanding mass-transfer effects in the pre-pilot and pilot-scale reactors, over the domain of flow rate, pressure, feed composition, pellet size, shape, porosity, bed voidage, and reactor dimensions (i.e., length/diameter). Modeling was also used to evaluate innovative reactor design concepts such as water removal to improve alcohol selectivity and yield, and a reactor with an additional side inlet to facilitate quenching. These concepts were thoroughly explored, and potential benefits were disclosed. The results in this report are summarized and described qualitatively to protect the IP rights of Catalyxx. The details have been shared with the Catalyxx team in the regular steering meetings. At the end of the project, Catalyxx Inc. announced a successful demonstration of pilot scale operation in Seville, Spain.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Foster Dam Juvenile Fish Passage, 2018 (Final Report)

This report presents the results of a fish passage study conducted by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Portland District (USACE) at Foster Dam (herein, Foster) during the spring (March–June) and fall (October–December) of 2018. The goal of this study was to provide biologists, engineers, resource managers, and regional decision-makers with information about passage of juvenile Chinook salmon and juvenile steelhead (or appropriate surrogates) through specific routes at Foster. The results of this study are intended to help facilitate decision-making regarding long-term measures for enhancing salmonid passage at Foster. Radio telemetry (RT) methods were instituted at low winter reservoir forebay elevation (low pool, 613 ft mean sea level (msl); spring 2018 and fall 2018) and high summer reservoir forebay elevation (high pool, 635 ft msl; late spring and early summer 2018) to accomplish the following objectives: I. Estimate the following passage metrics under typical operations (i.e., baseline conditions): a. Overall dam-passage survival and survival specific to each route of dam passage, calculated using two different methods: i. Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) estimate: Probability of survival from dam passage to detection at the Primary Array, 19 river kilometers (rkm) downstream of Foster. ii. Virtual Release/Dead Fish Correction (ViRDCt) estimate: Corrects the bias that occurs from misidentifying fish that did not survive dam-passage as alive at the tailrace Egress Array, allowing an estimate of survival from dam passage to this array, 2.5 rkm downstream of Foster. b. Route distribution (passage proportions by route; also known as “passage efficiencies”). c. Efficiency metrics i. Dam-passage efficiency (DPE), the proportion of total fish passing the dam relative to the number of total fish detected in the near forebay of the dam and therefore available to pass. ii. Fish passage efficiency (FPE), the proportion of fish passing via a non-turbine route, relative to the number of total fish in the near forebay and available to pass. iii. Fish weir efficiency (FWE) and spill bay efficiency (SBE), the proportion of fish passing the weir or spill bays, respectively, relative to the total number of fish passing the dam. d. Reservoir residency time (time elapsed between release into reservoir and dam passage) and travel times through the system. II. Estimate efficiency and effectiveness of the new fish weir, compared to the turbines and the spillway. III. Under alternative operations, compare passage through each route (turbines, weir, spillway) using a block/treatment (on/off) design similar to the 2015 and 2016 studies. IV. Estimate efficiency of the new fish weir operating at a low level of discharge (< 500 cfs) and a high level of discharge (= 500 cfs), as well as dam passage survival at each weir discharge level. V. Evaluate survival and behavior of hatchery summer steelhead to wild surrogate winter steelhead for potential use of summer steelhead as a surrogate species winter steelhead. VI. Evaluate juvenile passage rates in the auxiliary water supply (AWS), forebay water supply (FWS), and hatchery water supply (HWS).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comparison of Coupled and Uncoupled Modeling of Floating Wind Farms with Shared Anchors

As design options for floating wind farms continue to be explored, shared (or multiline) anchors that secure mooring lines from multiple turbines remain a promising technology that can potentially reduce the number of anchors and overall mooring costs. This study evaluates two methods for analyzing the loads on shared anchors: one in which floating offshore wind turbines are simulated individually (using the software OpenFAST), and one in which an entire floating wind farm is simulated collectively (using the software FAST.Farm). A three-line shared anchor is evaluated for multiple loading scenarios in deep water, using the International Energy Agency 15 MW turbine on the VolturnUS-S semisubmersible platform. While the two methods produce broadly comparable results, the coupled wave loading on platforms within the farm results in wave force cancellations and amplifications that decrease multiline force directional ranges and increase multiline force extreme values (up to 7%) and standard deviations (up to 11%) for wave-driven load cases. The inclusion of wakes in FAST.Farm also reduces the net load on the shared anchor due to the velocity deficit, leading to larger differences between OpenFAST and FAST.Farm (up to 3% difference in mean loads) for load cases with operational turbines.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Water balance model (WBM) v.1.0.0: a scalable gridded global hydrologic model with water-tracking functionality

Abstract. This paper describes the University of New Hampshire Water Balance Model, WBM, a process-based gridded global hydrologic model that simulates the land surface components of the global water cycle and includes water extraction for use in agriculture and domestic sectors. The WBM was first published in 1989; here, we describe the first fully open-source WBM version (v.1.0.0). Earlier descriptions of WBM methods provide the foundation for the most recent model version that is detailed here. We present an overview of the model functionality, utility, and evaluation of simulated global river discharge and irrigation water use. This new version adds a novel suite of water source tracking modules that enable the analysis of flow-path histories on water supply. A key feature of WBM v.1.0.0 is the ability to identify the partitioning of sources for each stock or flux within the model. Three different categories of tracking are available: (1) primary inputs of water to the surface of the terrestrial hydrologic cycle (liquid precipitation, snowmelt, glacier melt, and unsustainable groundwater); (2) water that has been extracted for human use and returned to the terrestrial hydrologic system; and (3) runoff originating from user-defined spatial land units. Such component tracking provides a more fully transparent model in that users can identify the underlying mechanisms generating the simulated behavior. We find that WBM v.1.0.0 simulates global river discharge and irrigation water withdrawals well, even with default parameter settings, and for the first time, we are able to show how the simulation arrives at these fluxes by using the novel tracking functions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Coupling SCALE with DAKOTA for Axial Burnup Profiles Assessment in Burnup Credit

This paper presents a computational study that demonstrates the application of the SCALE code system in conjunction with the Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications (DAKOTA) for the analysis of key factors influencing the evaluation of burnup credit (BUC) in pressurized water reactors (PWRs). The primary objective of this analysis is to characterize the model by utilizing parameterization, uncertainty quantification, and optimization studies. Using this approach, we can comprehensively assess the system and conduct informed predictive studies. This study highlights the effectiveness of the SCALE code system integrated within the DAKOTA framework in terms of efficiency and capability. With the coupling of the burnup code ORIGAMI with the CSAS or TSUNAMI-3D sequence embedded in a DAKOTA analysis, we can characterize the factors that influence the k eff of PWR 17x17 spent nuclear fuel (SNF) in the GBC-32 computational benchmark cask for the assessment of BUC in criticality safety analysis. The coupling methodology used in this study is not exclusive to BUC analysis. However, the choice to apply this methodology to the BUC problem is particularly significant because of the diverse range of aspects it encompasses in nuclear criticality safety analyses. This problem presents a unique opportunity to explore and address multiple facets of such analyses related to BUC and illustrates the capability of the SCALE code system with DAKOTA. This analysis makes use of historical reference data for the axial burnup profile, where the entire space within the bounds is considered. Both SCALE and DAKOTA are currently integrated in the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling Simulation (NEAMS) Workbench code system, which has a user-friendly graphical interface that simplifies the setup of simulations and configuration of input parameters as well as the visualization of simulation results.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating SWAT + model uncertainties for human and natural outcomes: Application in a Great Lakes agricultural watershed

Nutrient exports from agricultural lands in the Great Lakes Region pose significant threats to water quality and ecological health through eutrophication, hypoxia, and harmful algal blooms. Climate change and agricultural adaptation practices complicate future nutrient loading due to intensified hydrologic cycles and land use decisions. Our research focuses on evaluating the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) plus model parametric uncertainties for human and natural outcomes across different scales. These factors are integral to ensuring a balance between productive agricultural practices and maintaining the health of watershed hydrology. However, uncertainties in modeling such complex interactions pose significant challenges, limiting our ability to precisely determine critical factors that influence crop yield and soil moisture. Our analysis employs Sobol global sensitivity analysis to evaluate first-order, second order, and total-order indices for SWAT crop growth parameter, ensuring comprehensive assessment of individual and interactive effects on model outputs. The objective is to identify the parameters that significantly affect model outputs for crop yield and soil moisture and improve our understanding of their interactions at the basin and hydrological response unit (HRU) scale. Our case study, the Portage River Watershed, which drains into Lake Erie, is chosen to better capture finer scale interactions crucial for predicting nutrient loading under future climate scenarios. This foundational work is aimed at setting the stage for the future development of an agent-based model (ABM). The ABM model would incorporate SWAT outputs to dynamically simulate decision-making processes.

Bunyon, Enock↗