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At least 415 records · Page 23

Formulation of Three-Phase State Estimation Problem Using a Virtual Reference

State Estimation (SE) is the backbone of modern Energy Management System (EMS) due its capability of processing real time measurements and provide reliable information to system operators. Since its introduction to power systems in the 70’s, SE has been widely used in transmission networks. Distribution grids on the other hand lack sufficient number of real time measurements, and for that reason SE has not been widely implemented on these systems. The recent increase in the number of renewable energy sources connected to the grid at lower voltage levels, the advent of Distribution Automation (DA) and Smart Grids necessitate closer monitoring of distribution networks and thus forcing utilities to upgrade their operations and deploy Advanced Distribution Management Sytems (ADMS). Therefore, Distribution System State Estimation (DSE) is paramount to provide real time monitoring of active distribution grids. This papers investigates the formulation of the three-phase distribution state estimation where in the most general case, none of the system buses may have balanced three phase voltages. In such a case, the choice and definition of the slack bus need to be revisited. Most of the existing work arbitrarily assign the root bus of the distribution feeder as the balanced three-phase reference which may not be realistic for today’s active distribution systems. This paper addresses this shortcoming of the existing SE formulations by introducing a virtual reference bus. Here, the proposed approach is effectively validated by simulations carried out on distribution test systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Hydrology Copilot: A Cloud-Native Ai System for Hydrological Data Analysis

The emergence of AI-driven Earth observation systems promises to broaden access to petabyte-scale geospatial data beyond domain specialists. However, translating this vision into operational scientific infrastructure requires addressing fundamental challenges in data virtualization, code transparency, and domain-specific reasoning. We present Hydrology Copilot, a cloud-native AI framework for natural-language-driven analysis of Earth observation data. To demonstrate operational capabilities at scale, we implement the system using NASA's North American Land Data Assimilation System version 3 (NLDAS-3), which provides surface meteorological forcing and land-surface model output across North and Central America at 1-km resolution, from which drought diagnostics are derived. The system integrates five core contributions: (1) scalable data virtualization using Kerchunk-based cloud optimized access, achieving a 1.5 to 4.6 times improvement in I/O latency across benchmark queries spanning regional single-day extractions (4.6 times speedup) to continental monthly aggregations (1.5 times speedup); (2) transparent code generation through Microsoft Azure AI Foundry agents that expose executable Python workflows for scientific verification; (3) persistent conversational memory enabling multi-turn analytical discourse across sessions; (4) intelligent query validation that enforces dataset boundaries and resolves ambiguous requests before execution; and (5) a multi-agent architecture coordinating query parsing, code generation, and visualization. We evaluate the system through drought-monitoring workflows, demonstrating reliable code generation, accurate results validated against reference computations and the operational U.S. Drought Monitor, and efficient operation across increasingly complex tasks. By bridging natural-language interfaces with rigorous hydrological analysis, Hydrology Copilot advances beyond proof-of-concept demonstrations to provide a deployable framework for operational Earth science applications.

Data virtualization↗

Unified differentiable digital twin for the IOTA/FAST facility

As the design complexity of modern accelerators grows, there is more interest in using advanced simulations that have fast execution time or produce insights about accelerator state. One notable example of additional information are gradients of physical observables with respect to design parameters produced by differentiable simulations. The IOTA/FAST facility has recently begun a program to implement and experimentally validate a unified start-to-end differentiable digital twin to serve as a virtual accelerator test stand, allowing for rapid prototyping of new software and experiments with minimal beam time costs. In this contribution we will discuss our plans and progress. Specifically, we will cover the selection and benchmarking of both physics and ML codes, the development of generic interfaces between device models and surrogate or physics-based sections, and the export of the parameters through either a deterministic event loop or a fully asynchronous EPICS soft input/output controller. We will also discuss challenges in model calibration and uncertainty quantification, as well as future plans to support larger proton accelerators like PIPII and Booster.

Kuklev, Nikita [Fermilab]↗

End-to-end differentiable digital twin for the IOTA/FAST facility

As the design complexity of modern accelerators grows, there is more interest in using controllable-fidelity simulations that have fast execution time or can yield additional insights about accelerator state. One notable example of additional information are gradients of physical observables with respect to design parameters produced by differentiable simulations. The IOTA/FAST facility has recently begun a program to implement and experimentally validate an end-to-end digital twin to serve as a virtual accelerator test stand, allowing for rapid prototyping of new software and experiments with minimal beam time costs. In this contribution we will discuss our plans and progress. Specifically, we will cover the selection and benchmarking of both physics and ML codes for linac and ring simulation, the development of generic interfaces between surrogate and physics-based sections, and presenting the control interface as either a deterministic event loop or a fully asynchronous EPICS soft input/output controller. We will also discuss challenges in model calibration and uncertainty quantification, as well as future plans to implement larger proton accelerators like PIPII and Booster.

Kuklev, N. [Fermilab]↗

Physics-Infused AI/ML Based Digital-Twin Framework for Flow-Induced-Vibration Damage Prediction in a Nuclear Reactor Heat Exchanger

This report summarizes some of the ongoing work related to the development of an expert-elicitation-digital-twin framework for real time damage state prediction in heat exchanger components of a nuclear reactor. The framework is targeted towards predicting damage associated with coupled low cycle fatigue (associated with regular heat-up, cool-down and power operation transients) and high cycle fatigue (associated with flow induced vibration transients). The overall framework will be based on a NoSQL based database, physics-infused-geometry-dependent virtual-sensor data, different AI/ML techniques-based data-driven-predictive-model applications (Apps) and real-time plant sensor measurements available through few existing sensors. Towards this overall goal, this report updates some of the ongoing work, such as on implementation of a NoSQL Database (such as MongoDB), FE based heat transfer analysis of a heat exchanger (e.g. of a PWR steam generator) for generating geometry-dependent virtual sensor data and evaluation of various AI/ML models such as based on multivariate linear regression, ensembled decision-tree based Random-Forest and Gradient-Boosting regression and high-dimensional-kernel-function-transformation based Support-Vector-Machine regression models. The AI/ML models were evaluated for predicting multi-time-series thermal states at thousands of 3D point-clouds

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Optimization of the Carbon Dioxide Removal Assembly (CDRA-4EU) in Support of the International Space System and Advanced Exploration Systems

The Life Support Systems Project (LSSP) under the Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) program builds upon the work performed under the AES Atmosphere Resource Recovery and Environmental Monitoring (ARREM) project focusing on the numerous technology development areas. The Carbon Dioxide (CO2) removal and associated air drying development efforts are focused on improving the current state-of-the-art system on the International Space Station (ISS) utilizing fixed beds of sorbent pellets by seeking more robust pelletized sorbents, evaluating structured sorbents, and examining alternate bed configurations to improve system efficiency and reliability. A component of the CO2 removal effort utilizes a virtual Carbon Dioxide Removal Assembly, revision 4 (CDRA-4) test bed to test a large number of potential operational configurations with independent variations in flow rate, cycle time, heater ramp rate, and set point. Initial ground testing will provide prerequisite source data and provide baseline data in support of the virtual CDRA. Once the configurations with the highest performance and lowest power requirements are determined by the virtual CDRA, the results will be confirmed by testing these configurations with the CDRA-4EU ground test hardware. This paper describes the initial ground testing of select configurations. The development of the virtual CDRA under the AES-LSS Project will be discussed in a companion paper.

Knox, James C.↗

Virtual Community Trains

When access to transit solutions is restricted to parts of a community, a division occurs what leads to disadvantaged socioeconomic conditions that only grows over time. This restriction causes difficulties in accessing needed resources such as medical facilities, employment, healthy food, education, healthy food, and more. To solve this restricted access, Labyrinth Smart Mobility and partners are developing a virtual community train that encourages scalability, energy efficiency, and equitability to all regardless of individual circumstances and limitation. The implementation of virtual community trains allows access to resources previously out of reach. The virtual community train enables one operator to drive a lead vehicle. This lead vehicle would then provide direction to a follow vehicle through vehicle-to-vehicle communication. Labyrinth Smart Mobility in conjunction with partners used various methods and resources to prove market feasibility, technical feasibility, economic need and viability, and more as well as design system requirements and architecture emphasis efficiency and safety. In doing so, Labyrinth Smart Mobility and partners will continue these advancements to further develop the virtual community train.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Post-carboniferous tectonics in the Anadarko Basin, Oklahoma: Evidence from side-looking radar imagery

The Anadarko Basin of western Oklahoma is a WNW-ESE elongated trough filled with of Paleozoic sediments. Most models call for tectonic activity to end in Pennsylvanian times. NASA Shuttle Imaging Radar revealed a distinctive and very straight lineament set extending virtually the entire length of the Anadarko Basin. The lineaments cut across the relatively flat-lying Permian units exposed at the surface. The character of these lineaments is seen most obviously as a tonal variation. Major streams, including the Washita and Little Washita rivers, appear to be controlled by the location of the lineaments. Subsurface data indicate the lineaments may be the updip expression of a buried major fault system, the Mountain View fault. Two principal conclusions arise from this analysis: (1) the complex Mountain View Fault system appears to extend southeast to join the Reagan, Sulphur, and/or Mill Creek faults of the Arbuckle Mountains, and (2) this fault system has been reactivated in Permian or younger times.

Nielsen, K. C.↗

Autonomous reconfigurable virtual sensing system for cyber-attack neutralization

An industrial asset may be associated with a plurality of monitoring nodes, each monitoring node generating a series of monitoring node values over time representing current operation of the industrial asset. An abnormality detection computer may determine that at least one abnormal monitoring node is currently being attacked or experiencing a fault. A virtual sensing estimator may continuously execute an adaptive learning process to create or update virtual sensor models for the monitoring nodes. Responsive to an indication that a monitoring node is currently being attacked or experiencing a fault, the virtual sensing estimator may be dynamically reconfigured to estimate a series of virtual node values for the abnormal monitoring node or nodes based on information from normal monitoring nodes and appropriate virtual sensor models. The series of monitoring node values from the abnormal monitoring node or nodes may then be replaced with the virtual node values.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

FORCE Update 2024

The Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite is the U.S. Department of Energy’s Nuclear Integrated Energy Systems (IES) Program flagship tool suite for technoeconomic IES analysis of IES. This tool suite is useful for analysis designed to evaluate and improve the technoeconomics of energy production systems, particularly for systems including nuclear technology. In this report, we document the development activity for the FORCE tool suite to extend its capabilities as performed during fiscal year 2024. In addition to reliability and accessibility, capability is one of the three standards guiding the development of the FORCE tool suite and the software codes that are its constituent parts. Extending the capabilities of the FORCE tool suite allows analysis both within the IES program as well as industry, university, and laboratory partners to perform analysis with more accuracy, insight, and impactful narrative. Four areas of capability development were the focus of activity this year: economic parameter uncertainty quantification, multiresolution analysis, components-to-optimization workflow automation, and statespace construction workflows for real-time optimal control. In economic parameter uncertainty quantification, the ability of HERON to capture risk due to scenarios (weather and energy demand uncertainty) was expanded to also include uncertainties in financial parameters such as capital cost or operation and maintenance costs. By including these sources of uncertainty, which are sometimes very large compared with scenario uncertainty, HERON is better able to capture the risk posed by investment in various IES technology. Because of this, analysts can also consider the reduction in risks that can be realized by choice of some technologies. In multiresolution analysis, development activity extended on work completed previously. In fiscal year 2023, methods for decomposing time series signals, such as demand, solar and wind availability, and price profiles, were analyzed and down-selected to those most effective at splitting signals into different resolutions. These resolutions allow considering the influence of different energy demand and supply behaviors across different time scales. For example, energy demand might be divided into seasonal, weekly, and hourly profiles. In fiscal year 2024, this preliminary work was extended and implemented within the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) risk and uncertainty analysis platform, which is used throughout the FORCE framework. This development of the “multi-resolution time series analysis” (MR-TSA) module in RAVEN allows training synthetic history generators on complex time series. These synthetic history generators can then be used in HERON for generating scenarios that represent possible market and weather scenarios that can be analyzed on different time scales. We envision completing this work in the future, implementing multiresolution dispatch optimization strategies that can make the most beneficial use of these stratified time histories. In components-to-optimization workflow development, workflows for translating user inputs of components into algorithms for algebraic optimization were selected and implemented. Similar algorithms within the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) were separated from the main code base of HERON and gathered with the components-to-optimization workflows in the new Dispatch Optimization Variable Engine (DOVE) software library. This modularization allows FORCE users to analyze dispatch optimization and energy system duty cycles independently of HERON, which previously was a burdensome task. Additionally, these dispatch optimization algorithms, set up in an independent library, can now be used across all software applications within FORCE, especially including the real-time optimal control software Optimization of Real-time Capacity Allocation (ORCA). Allowing FORCE software to share dispatch optimization algorithms within a single library allows for improved software maintenance and reliability. In statespace characterization workflow development, alternative workflows for optimizing dispatch with additional technical accuracy was the focus, particularly to improve the real-time optimization decision making in ORCA. Using algorithms and workflows initially developed for the Feasible Actuator Range Modifier (FARM), workflows for determining the statespace representation of IES were identified and demonstrated. The resulting dispatch optimization required a more robust optimization algorithm than that originally used in HERON (and moved to DOVE), which required adding an alternate workflow to DOVE that can more accurately match the behavior of physical systems using a partial differential equation representation. In conclusion, capability developments in the FORCE tool suite in fiscal year 2024 have improved the ability of the FORCE tool suite to perform

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Lateral-Directional Parameter Estimation on the X-48B Aircraft Using an Abstracted, Multi-Objective Effector Model

The problem of parameter estimation on hybrid-wing-body aircraft is complicated by the fact that many design candidates for such aircraft involve a large number of aerodynamic control effectors that act in coplanar motion. This adds to the complexity already present in the parameter estimation problem for any aircraft with a closed-loop control system. Decorrelation of flight and simulation data must be performed in order to ascertain individual surface derivatives with any sort of mathematical confidence. Non-standard control surface configurations, such as clamshell surfaces and drag-rudder modes, further complicate the modeling task. In this paper, time-decorrelation techniques are applied to a model structure selected through stepwise regression for simulated and flight-generated lateral-directional parameter estimation data. A virtual effector model that uses mathematical abstractions to describe the multi-axis effects of clamshell surfaces is developed and applied. Comparisons are made between time history reconstructions and observed data in order to assess the accuracy of the regression model. The Cram r-Rao lower bounds of the estimated parameters are used to assess the uncertainty of the regression model relative to alternative models. Stepwise regression was found to be a useful technique for lateral-directional model design for hybrid-wing-body aircraft, as suggested by available flight data. Based on the results of this study, linear regression parameter estimation methods using abstracted effectors are expected to perform well for hybrid-wing-body aircraft properly equipped for the task.

Ratnayake, Nalin A.↗

Time-Sensitive Quantum Key Distribution (TSQKD)

This is the final report for the Time-Sensitive Quantum Key Distribution (TSQKD) project and summarizes the demonstration and longer-term field testing at an electric utility, EPB of Chattanooga, in Chattanooga, TN. The demonstration was held virtually (due to the COVID pandemic) and successfully executed the tests outlined in a prior report, “Task 10: Develop a QKD Time-Sensitive Networking Test Suite” submitted 9/30/2020. The portable test equipment explained in Task 10 and earlier task reports was tested at GE Research remotely connected with Qubitekk’s QKD equipment in San Diego, CA. Then the equipment was shipped to Qubitekk for physical integration with Qubitekk’s Quantum DataLoc™ Key Server 1570nm (http://qubitekk.com/products/qkd-for-industrial-control-systems-ics/). The portable test equipment was shipped from Qubitekk to EPB for demonstration and extended field testing. A summary of the demonstration and test results are described in this report. The demo and extended field test results are enabled by the NETCONF/YANG IEEE P1913 data management model developed as part of this project (Task 5). The NETCONF/YANG IEEE P1913 data management model demonstrated significant practical utility in providing a common means of monitoring and configuring the QKD system. All data in this report comes from the IEEE P1913 data management model.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Designing Monte Carlo Simulation and an Optimal Machine Learning to Optimize and Model Space Missions

This paper investigates applying artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms to attitude control system of satellites to optimally tune the controller using high performance computing. This methodology is applied to the Virtual Telescope for X-ray Observation mission, which is a precise formation of two separate spacecraft observing multiple objects in the space in the X-ray domain. The mission is divided into phases based on the instrumentation and the mission goal. To reach an stable precise formation robust to stochastic slew and slew rate (i.e., Euler angles and angular velocities) in a minimal constrained time T , consumed energy of the attitude control system, denoted as E, and root-mean-square state error of attitude control system, denoted as e, are minimized. Monte-Carlo simulation is used for the sensitivity analysis of optimization and designing a controller. Deep neural networks (DNN), Gaussian processes (GP), and support vector regression (SVR) learn this optimization as a surrogate model, while their hyperparameters are optimized in a novel approach. THETA supercomputer at Argonne Leadership Computing Facility (ALCF) is used for optimizing the hyperparameters of DNN. The surrogate model meets the requirements of the mission, and it shows a better performance over the optimization and Monte-Carlo. The optimal DNN can satisfy the mission requirements e and T while reducing E for 90% compared to the other given methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Using Virtual Simulations in the Design of 21st Century Space Science Environments

Space Technology has been rapidly increasing in the past decade. This can be attributed to the future construction of the International Space Station (ISS). New innovations must constantly be engineered to make ISS the safest, quality, research facility in space. Since space science must often be gathered by crew members, more attention must be geared to the human's safety and comfort. Virtual simulations are now being used to design environments that crew members can live in for long periods of time without harmful effects to their bodies. This paper gives a few examples of the ergonomic design problems that arise on manned space flights, and design solutions that follow NASA's strategic commitment to customer satisfaction. The conclusions show that virtual simulations are a great asset to 21st century design.

Hutchinson, Sonya L.↗

A Virtual Laboratory for Aviation and Airspace Prognostics Research

Integration of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), autonomy, spacecraft, and other aviation technologies, in the airspace is becoming more and more complicated, and will continue to do so in the future. Inclusion of new technology and complexity into the airspace increases the importance and difficulty of safety assurance. Additionally, testing new technologies on complex aviation systems and systems of systems can be challenging, expensive, and at times unsafe when implementing real life scenarios. The application of prognostics to aviation and airspace management may produce new tools and insight into these problems. Prognostic methodology provides an estimate of the health and risks of a component, vehicle, or airspace and knowledge of how that will change over time. That measure is especially useful in safety determination, mission planning, and maintenance scheduling. In our research, we develop a live, distributed, hardware- in-the-loop Prognostics Virtual Laboratory testbed for aviation and airspace prognostics. The developed testbed will be used to validate prediction algorithms for the real-time safety monitoring of the National Airspace System (NAS) and the prediction of unsafe events. In our earlier work1 we discussed the initial Prognostics Virtual Laboratory testbed development work and related results for milestones 1 & 2. This paper describes the design, development, and testing of the integrated tested which are part of milestone 3, along with our next steps for validation of this work. Through a framework consisting of software/hardware modules and associated interface clients, the distributed testbed enables safe, accurate, and inexpensive experimentation and research into airspace and vehicle prognosis that would not have been possible otherwise. The testbed modules can be used cohesively to construct complex and relevant airspace scenarios for research. Four modules are key to this research: the virtual aircraft module which uses the X-Plane simulator and X-PlaneConnect toolbox, the live aircraft module which connects fielded aircraft using onboard cellular communications devices, the hardware in the loop (HITL) module which connects laboratory based bench-top hardware testbeds and the research module which contains diagnostics and prognostics tools for analysis of live air traffic situations and vehicle health conditions. The testbed also features other modules for data recording and playback, information visualization, and air traffic generation. Software reliability, safety, and latency are some of the critical design considerations in development of the testbed.

LVC-DE↗

A theoretical model for sheath dynamics in the two-plasma mode of a cylindrical filament discharge

We present a refined understanding of cylindrical plasma-facing emitter cathodes by examining the limitations of the conventional space charge limited model, which overlooks ion trapping dynamics within the virtual cathode. While conventional theory distinguishes between temperature-limited and space charge limited regimes based on electron current constraints, our findings reveal that trapped ions can form a quasi-neutral “second plasma,” expanding upstream and interacting with the primary plasma. In cylindrical and other non-planar geometries, an expanding trapped-ions layer produces current enhancement by converting more of the emitted electron flux to passing flux. The current enhancement leads to a complex coupling between the trapped-ions plasma and upstream plasma through ionizing collisions in the upstream region and charge exchange collisions in the virtual cathode. The coupling results in mutual density enhancement and at the same time, antagonistic expansion dynamics between the two plasma layers. The process is understood using a new “aid-compete” model. Numerical solutions, validated against simulations, reveal the model's capacity to predict system evolution and complex discharge behaviors, albeit with qualitative approximations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Structure of the plasma fireball produced by a CO2 laser.

Study of the space and time resolved structure of a helium plasma produced with a repetitive CO2 laser during the first 15 microsec of the afterglow period. The spectra of several neutral and ionized helium lines are used in the determination of the density and temperature profiles of the luminous fireball. It is found that the plasma is comprised of a dense hot core, which emits primarily ionic lines, and a well-defined tenuous outer shell, which is primarily the source of neutral emission lines. This ?two-component' plasma structure develops at about 0.4 microsec after breakdown, at about the time when the luminous fireball dissipates its expansion energy and comes to a virtual standstill.

George, E. V.↗

An improved technique for the use of zinc-rich coatings

Blistering and peeling of topcoats used over ethyl silicate, inorganic, zinc-rich protective coatings are virtually eliminated when primer is allowed to cure outdoors for extended period of time and is moistened during process.

Paton, W. J.↗