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At least 415 records · Page 23

Application of Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis to Floods and Landslides

Satellite data acquired and processed in real time now have the potential to provide the spacetime information on rainfall needed to monitor flood and landslide events around the world. This can be achieved by integrating the satellite-derived forcing data with hydrological models and landslide algorithms. Progress in using the TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) as input to flood and landslide forecasts is outlined, with a focus on understanding limitations of the rainfall data and impacts of those limitations on flood/landslide analyses. Case studies of both successes and failures will be shown, as well as comparison with ground comparison data sets both in terms of rainfall and in terms of flood/landslide events. In addition to potential uses in real-time, the nearly ten years of TMPA data allow retrospective running of the models to examine variations in extreme events. The flood determination algorithm consists of four major components: 1) multi-satellite precipitation estimation; 2) characterization of land surface including digital elevation from NASA SRTM (Shuttle Radar Terrain Mission), topography-derived hydrologic parameters such as flow direction, flow accumulation, basin, and river network etc.; 3) a hydrological model to infiltrate rainfall and route overland runoff; and 4) an implementation interface to relay the input data to the models and display the flood inundation results to potential users and decision-makers. In terms of landslides, the satellite rainfall information is combined with a global landslide susceptibility map, derived from a combination of global surface characteristics (digital elevation topography, slope, soil types, soil texture, and land cover classification etc.) using a weighted linear combination approach. In those areas identified as "susceptible" (based on the surface characteristics), landslides are forecast where and when a rainfall intensity/duration threshold is exceeded. Results are described indicating general agreement with landslide occurrences. However, difficulties in comparing landslide event information (mostly from news reports) with the satellite-based forecasts are analyzed.

Adler, Robert↗

Robust Kalman filter design for predictive wind shear detection

Severe, low-altitude wind shear is a threat to aviation safety. Airborne sensors under development measure the radial component of wind along a line directly in front of an aircraft. In this paper, optimal estimation theory is used to define a detection algorithm to warn of hazardous wind shear from these sensors. To achieve robustness, a wind shear detection algorithm must distinguish threatening wind shear from less hazardous gustiness, despite variations in wind shear structure. This paper presents statistical analysis methods to refine wind shear detection algorithm robustness. Computational methods predict the ability to warn of severe wind shear and avoid false warning. Comparative capability of the detection algorithm as a function of its design parameters is determined, identifying designs that provide robust detection of severe wind shear.

Stratton, Alexander D.↗

A snow wetness retrieval algorithm for SAR

The objectives of this study are: (1) to evaluate the backscattering signals response to snow wetness; and (2) to develop an algorithm for snow wetness measurement using C-band polarimetric synthetic aperture radar (SAR). In hydrological investigations, modeling and forecasting of snowmelt runoff requires information about snowpack properties and their spatial variability. In particular, timely measurement of snow parameters is needed for operational hydrology. The liquid water content of snowpack is one of the important parameters. Active microwave sensors are highly sensitive to liquid water in the snowpack because of the large dielectric contrast between ice and water in the microwave spectrum. They are not affected by weather and have a spatial resolution compatible with the topographic variation in alpine regions. However, a quantitative algorithm for retrieval snow wetness has not yet been developed.

Shi, Jian-Cheng↗

Development of an upwind, finite-volume code with finite-rate chemistry

Under this grant, two numerical algorithms were developed to predict the flow of viscous, hypersonic, chemically reacting gases over three-dimensional bodies. Both algorithms take advantage of the benefits of upwind differencing, total variation diminishing techniques, and a finite-volume framework, but obtain their solution in two separate manners. The first algorithm is a zonal, time-marching scheme, and is generally used to obtain solutions in the subsonic portions of the flow field. The second algorithm is a much less expensive, space-marching scheme and can be used for the computation of the larger, supersonic portion of the flow field. Both codes compute their interface fluxes with a temporal Riemann solver and the resulting schemes are made fully implicit including the chemical source terms and boundary conditions. Strong coupling is used between the fluid dynamic, chemical, and turbulence equations. These codes have been validated on numerous hypersonic test cases and have provided excellent comparison with existing data.

Molvik, Gregory A.↗

Understanding performance variability in standard and pipelined parallel Krylov solvers

In this work, we collect data from runs of Krylov subspace methods and pipelined Krylov algorithms in an effort to understand and model the impact of machine noise and other sources of variability on performance. We find large variability of Krylov iterations between compute nodes for standard methods that is reduced in pipelined algorithms, directly supporting conjecture, as well as large variation between statistical distributions of runtimes across iterations. Based on these results, we improve upon a previously introduced nondeterministic performance model by allowing iterations to fluctuate over time. We present our data from runs of various Krylov algorithms across multiple platforms as well as our updated non-stationary model that provides good agreement with observations. We also suggest how it can be used as a predictive tool.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Learning to Optimize Variational Quantum Circuits to Solve Combinatorial Problems

Quantum computing is a computational paradigm with the potential to outperform classical methods for a variety of problems. Proposed recently, the Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm (QAOA) is considered as one of the leading candidates for demonstrating quantum advantage in the near term. QAOA is a variational hybrid quantum-classical algorithm for approximately solving combinatorial optimization problems. The quality of the solution obtained by QAOA for a given problem instance depends on the performance of the classical optimizer used to optimize the variational parameters. In this paper, we formulate the problem of finding optimal QAOA parameters as a learning task in which the knowledge gained from solving training instances can be leveraged to find high-quality solutions for unseen test instances. To this end, we develop two machine-learning-based approaches. Our first approach adopts a reinforcement learning (RL) framework to learn a policy network to optimize QAOA circuits. Our second approach adopts a kernel density estimation (KDE) technique to learn a generative model of optimal QAOA parameters. In both approaches, the training procedure is performed on small-sized problem instances that can be simulated on a classical computer; yet the learned RL policy and the generative model can be used to efficiently solve larger problems. Furthermore, extensive simulations using the IBM Qiskit Aer quantum circuit simulator demonstrate that our proposed RL- and KDE-based approaches reduce the optimality gap by factors up to 30.15 when compared with other commonly used off-the-shelf optimizers.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Physics Mining of Multi-Source Data Sets

Powerful new parallel data mining algorithms can produce diagnostic and prognostic numerical models and analyses from observational data. These techniques yield higher-resolution measures than ever before of environmental parameters by fusing synoptic imagery and time-series measurements. These techniques are general and relevant to observational data, including raster, vector, and scalar, and can be applied in all Earth- and environmental science domains. Because they can be highly automated and are parallel, they scale to large spatial domains and are well suited to change and gap detection. This makes it possible to analyze spatial and temporal gaps in information, and facilitates within-mission replanning to optimize the allocation of observational resources. The basis of the innovation is the extension of a recently developed set of algorithms packaged into MineTool to multi-variate time-series data. MineTool is unique in that it automates the various steps of the data mining process, thus making it amenable to autonomous analysis of large data sets. Unlike techniques such as Artificial Neural Nets, which yield a blackbox solution, MineTool's outcome is always an analytical model in parametric form that expresses the output in terms of the input variables. This has the advantage that the derived equation can then be used to gain insight into the physical relevance and relative importance of the parameters and coefficients in the model. This is referred to as physics-mining of data. The capabilities of MineTool are extended to include both supervised and unsupervised algorithms, handle multi-type data sets, and parallelize it.

Helly, John↗

Contextual subspace variational quantum eigensolver calculation of the dissociation curve of molecular nitrogen on a superconducting quantum computer

Abstract We present an experimental demonstration of the Contextual Subspace Variational Quantum Eigensolver on superconducting hardware. Calculating the potential energy curve of molecular nitrogen proves challenging for many conventional quantum chemistry techniques, since static correlation dominates in the dissociation limit. Our quantum simulations retain good agreement with the Full Configuration Interaction energy, outperforming all benchmarked single-reference wavefunction techniques in capturing the bond-breaking appropriately. Moreover, our methodology is competitive with multiconfigurational approaches but at a saving of quantum resource, meaning larger active spaces can be treated for a fixed qubit allowance. To achieve this result, we deploy an error mitigation/suppression strategy comprised of Dynamical Decoupling, Measurement-Error Mitigation and Zero-Noise Extrapolation. Circuit parallelization also provides passive noise-averaging and improves the effective shot yield to reduce the measurement overhead. Furthermore, we introduce a modified adaptive ansatz construction algorithm that incorporates hardware awareness into our variational circuits, minimizing the transpilation cost for the target qubit topology.

Physics↗

Development of an upwind, finite-volume code with finite-rate chemistry

Under this grant, two numerical algorithms were developed to predict the flow of viscous, hypersonic, chemically reacting gases over three-dimensional bodies. Both algorithms take advantage of the benefits of upwind differencing, total variation diminishing techniques and of a finite-volume framework, but obtain their solution in two separate manners. The first algorithm is a zonal, time-marching scheme, and is generally used to obtain solutions in the subsonic portions of the flow field. The second algorithm is a much less expensive, space-marching scheme and can be used for the computation of the larger, supersonic portion of the flow field. Both codes compute their interface fluxes with a temporal Riemann solver and the resulting schemes are made fully implicit including the chemical source terms and boundary conditions. Strong coupling is used between the fluid dynamic, chemical and turbulence equations. These codes have been validated on numerous hypersonic test cases and have provided excellent comparison with existing data. This report summarizes the research that took place from August 1,1994 to January 1, 1995.

Molvik, Gregory A.↗

Probabilistic Guidance of a Swarm Deployed from the Back Shell of the Mars Spacecraft

This paper presents a probabilistic guidance algorithm for a swarm of assets deployed from the back shell of the Mars spacecraft. Such a swarm could provide valuable science data, with large spatiotemporal variation, from the Martian surface. Our probabilistic swarm guidance algorithm maximizes the coverage area of the swarm while uniformly distributing the assets on the Martian surface and guaranteeing strong connectivity of the swarm’s communication network topology. Numerical simulations demonstrate the effectiveness and versatility of our probabilistic swarm guidance algorithm.

Hadaegh, Fred↗

Comparison of Snow Mass Estimates from a Prototype Passive Microwave Snow Algorithm, a Revised Algorithm and a Snow Depth Climatology

While it is recognized that no single snow algorithm is capable of producing accurate global estimates of snow depth, for research purposes it is useful to test an algorithm's performance in different climatic areas in order to see how it responds to a variety of snow conditions. This study is one of the first to develop separate passive microwave snow algorithms for North America and Eurasia by including parameters that consider the effects of variations in forest cover and crystal size on microwave brightness temperature. A new algorithm (GSFC 1996) is compared to a prototype algorithm (Chang et al., 1987) and to a snow depth climatology (SDC), which for this study is considered to be a standard reference or baseline. It is shown that the GSFC 1996 algorithm compares much more favorably to the SDC than does the Chang et al. (1987) algorithm. For example, in North America in February there is a 15% difference between the GSFC 198-96 Algorithm and the SDC, but with the Chang et al. (1987) algorithm the difference is greater than 50%. In Eurasia, also in February, there is only a 1.3% difference between the GSFC 1996 algorithm and the SDC, whereas with the Chang et al. (1987) algorithm the difference is about 20%. As expected, differences tend to be less when the snow cover extent is greater, particularly for Eurasia. The GSFC 1996 algorithm performs better in North America in each month than dose the Chang et al. (1987) algorithm. This is also the case in Eurasia, except in April and May when the Chang et al.(1987) algorithms is in closer accord to the SDC than is GSFC 1996 algorithm.

Foster, J. L.↗

Variational preparation of the thermofield double state of the Sachdev-Ye-Kitaev model

Here, we provide an algorithm for preparing the thermofield double (TFD) state of the Sachdev-Ye-Kitaev (SYK) model without the need for an auxiliary bath. Following previous work, the TFD can be cast as the approximate ground state of a Hamiltonian, H TFD . Using variational quantum circuits, we propose and implement a gradient-based algorithm for learning parameters that find this ground state, an application of the variational quantum eigensolver. Concretely, we find shallow quantum circuits that prepare the ground state of H TFD for the q = 4 SYK model for N = 8 Majoranas per side. For N = 12, we achieve a variational energy within 1% of the true ground-state energy.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

The Statistical Emulators of GGCMI Phase 2: Responses of Year-to-Year Variation of Crop Yield to CO 2 , Temperature, Water and Nitrogen Perturbations

Understanding the impact of climate change on year-to-year variation of crop yield is critical to global food stability and security. While crop model emulators are believed to be lightweight tools to replace the models, few emulators have been developed to capture such interannual variation of crop yield in response to climate variability. In this study, we developed a statistical emulator with a machine learning algorithm to reproduce the response of year-to-year variation of four crop yields to CO 2 (C), temperature (T), water (W), and nitrogen (N) perturbations defined in the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) phase 2. The emulators were able to explain more than 52 % of the variance of simulated yield and performed well in capturing the year-to-year variation of global average and gridded crop yield over current croplands in the baseline. With the changes in CO 2 –temperature–water–nitrogen (CTWN) perturbations, the emulators could reproduce the year-to-year variation of crop yield well over most current cropland. The variation of R and the mean absolute error was small under the single CTWN perturbations and dual-factor perturbations. These emulators thus provide statistical response surfaces of yield, including both its mean and interannual variability, to climate factors. They could facilitate spatiotemporal downscaling of crop model simulation, projecting the changes in crop yield variability in the future and serving as a lightweight tool for multi-model ensemble simulation. The emulators enhanced the flexibility of crop yield estimates and expanded the application of large-ensemble simulations of crop yield under climate change.

Climate change↗

Optimization of Simultaneous Measurement for Variational Quantum Eigensolver Applications

Variational quantum eigensolver (VQE) is a promising algorithm suitable for near-term quantum computers. VQE aims to approximate solutions to exponentially-sized optimization problems by executing a polynomial number of quantum sub-problems. However, the number of subproblems scales as N-4 for typical problems of interest-a daunting growth rate that poses a serious limitation for emerging applications such as quantum computational chemistry. We mitigate this issue by exploiting the simultaneous measurability of subproblems corresponding to commuting terms. Our technique transpiles VQE instances into a format optimized for simultaneous measurement, ultimately yielding 8-30x lower cost. Our work also encompasses a synthesis tool for compiling simultaneous measurement circuits with minimal overhead. We demonstrate experimental validation of our techniques by estimating the ground state energy of deuteron with a quantum computer. We also investigate the underlying statistics of simultaneous measurement and devise an adaptive strategy for mitigating harmful covariance terms.

quantum computing↗

Performance of scene dependent angular models in deriving top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes from satellite radiance measurements

The ERB experiment algorithm is applied to the Nimbus-7 scanner data for June 1979 to analyze the performance of scene-dependent angular models. The ERBE-derived albedo and LW flux are compared to results from the sorting-into-angular-bins (SAB) method described by Arking and Vemury (1984) and the ERB Matrix algorithm described by Jacobowitz et al. (1984). Results are given for the variation of ERBE-derived flux with viewing zenith angle. Comparing results derived from the ERBE algorithm and from the SAB method, zonal mean differences for the month were less than 0.01 for albedo and 2 W/ sq m for longwave flux. When compared to the ERB matrix algorithm, the ERBE algorithm gives less dependence on viewing zenith angle for SW fluxes, but more for LW fluxes. Cloud results from the ERBE method using broadband Nimbus-7 ERB radiances are compared with the new cloud ERB data results of Stowe et al. (1988). Agreement typically within 0.10 was found.

Suttles, John T.↗

The Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) Limb Profiler (LP) Version 1 Aerosol Extinction Retrieval Algorithm: Theoretical Basis

The theoretical basis of the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) Limb Profiler (LP) Version 1 aerosol extinction retrieval algorithm is presented. The algorithm uses an assumed bimodal lognormal aerosol size distribution to retrieve aerosol extinction profiles at 675 nm from OMPS LP radiance measurements. A first-guess aerosol extinction profile is updated by iteration using the Chahine nonlinear relaxation method, based on comparisons between the measured radiance profile at 675 nm and the radiance profile calculated by the Gauss Seidel limb-scattering (GSLS) radiative transfer model for a spherical-shell atmosphere. This algorithm is discussed in the context of previous limb-scattering aerosol extinction retrieval algorithms, and the most significant error sources are enumerated. The retrieval algorithm is limited primarily by uncertainty about the aerosol phase function. Horizontal variations in aerosol extinction, which violate the spherical-shell atmosphere assumed in the version 1 algorithm, may also limit the quality of the retrieved aerosol extinction profiles significantly.

Loughman, Robert↗

Algorithm for Identifying Erroneous Rain-Gauge Readings

An algorithm analyzes rain-gauge data to identify statistical outliers that could be deemed to be erroneous readings. Heretofore, analyses of this type have been performed in burdensome manual procedures that have involved subjective judgements. Sometimes, the analyses have included computational assistance for detecting values falling outside of arbitrary limits. The analyses have been performed without statistically valid knowledge of the spatial and temporal variations of precipitation within rain events. In contrast, the present algorithm makes it possible to automate such an analysis, makes the analysis objective, takes account of the spatial distribution of rain gauges in conjunction with the statistical nature of spatial variations in rainfall readings, and minimizes the use of arbitrary criteria. The algorithm implements an iterative process that involves nonparametric statistics.

Rickman, Doug↗

Effects of Ice Particle Size Vertical Inhomogeneity on the Passive Remote Sensing of Ice Clouds

The solar reflectance bi-spectral (SRBS) and infrared split-window (IRSpW) methods are two of the most popular techniques for passive ice cloud property retrievals from multispectral imagers. Ice clouds are usually assumed to be vertically homogeneous in global operational algorithms based on these methods, although significant vertical variations of ice particle size are typically observed in ice clouds. In this Study we investigate uncertainties in retrieved optical thickness, effective particle size, and ice water path introduced by a homogeneous cloud assumption in both the SRBS and IRSpW methods, and focus on whether the assumption can lead to significant discrepancies between the two methods. The study simulates the upwelling spectral radiance associated with vertically structured clouds and passes the results through representative SRBS and IRSpW retrieval algorithms. Cloud optical thickness is limited to values for which IRSpW retrievals are possible (optical thickness less than about 7). When the ice cloud is optically thin and yet has a significant ice particle size vertical variation, it is found that both methods tend to underestimate the effective radius and ice water path. The reason for the underestimation is the nonlinear dependence of ice particle scattering properties (extinction and single scattering albedo) on the effective radius. Because the nonlinearity effect is stronger in the IRSpW than the SRBS method, the IRSpW-based IWP tends to be smaller than the SRBS counterpart. When the ice cloud is moderately optically thick, the IRSpW method is relatively insensitive to cloud vertical structure and effective radius retrieval is weighted toward smaller ice particle size, while the weighting function makes the SRBS method more sensitive to the ice particle size in the upper portion of the cloud. As a result, when ice particle size increases monotonically toward cloud base, the two methods are in qualitative agreement; in the event that ice particle size decreases toward cloud base, the effective radius and ice water path retrievals based on the SRBS method are substantially larger than those from the IRSpW. The main findings of this Study Suggest that the homogenous cloud assumption can affect the SRBS and IRSpW methods to different extents and, consequently, can lead to significantly different retrievals. Therefore caution should be taken when comparing and combining the ice cloud property retrievals from these two methods.

Zhang, Zhibo↗