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At least 415 records · Page 23

Orbit Determination Accuracy Analysis of the Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission During Perigee Raise

The Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Dynamics Facility (FDF) will provide orbit determination and prediction support for the Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission during the mission's commissioning period. The spacecraft will launch into a highly elliptical Earth orbit in 2015. Starting approximately four days after launch, a series of five large perigee-raising maneuvers will be executed near apogee on a nearly every-other-orbit cadence. This perigee-raise operations concept requires a high-accuracy estimate of the orbital state within one orbit following the maneuver for performance evaluation and a high-accuracy orbit prediction to correctly plan and execute the next maneuver in the sequence. During early mission design, a linear covariance analysis method was used to study orbit determination and prediction accuracy for this perigee-raising campaign. This paper provides a higher fidelity Monte Carlo analysis using the operational COTS extended Kalman filter implementation that was performed to validate the linear covariance analysis estimates and to better characterize orbit determination performance for actively maneuvering spacecraft in a highly elliptical orbit. The study finds that the COTS extended Kalman filter tool converges on accurate definitive orbit solutions quickly, but prediction accuracy through orbits with very low altitude perigees is degraded by the unpredictability of atmospheric density variation.

Multiscale↗

Quantitative Biostratigraphic Analysis and Age Estimates of Middle Cretaceous Sequences in The Baltimore Canyon Trough, Offshore Mid-Atlantic U.S. Margin

ABSTRACT We applied quantitative methods to previously published biostratigraphic data from the Baltimore Canyon Trough (offshore of the Mid-Atlantic U.S.A.) to provide an improved chronostratigraphic framework for Cretaceous sequences. Here, we successfully used graphic correlation of 228 planktonic foraminifera, nannofossil, and palynological events spanning 22 wells to define assemblage and interval zones as well as major paleoenvironmental changes in the Dawson Canyon, Logan Canyon (three sequences), and Missisauga Formations (two sequences, undifferentiated here). Ranking and scaling techniques were not successful because of the of the limited number of usable biostratigraphic markers. The ages of the sequences previously identified using well logs and seismic profiles were temporally constrained based on chronostratigraphically significant biostratigraphic markers that we identified: the late Cenomanian to Turonian DCx sequence (Rotalipora cushmani and Thalmanninella greenhornensis); the early Cenomanian LC1 sequence; the middle and late Albian LC2 sequence (Braarudosphaera africana, Planomalina buxtorfi, and Spinidinium vestitum); the late Aptian LC3 sequence (Cyclonephelium tabulatum); and the early Aptian to Barremian Missisauga sequences (Aptea anaphrissa, Pseudoceratium pelliferum, and Muderongia simplex). These five biostratigraphic associations are correlated with six prominent seismic reflectors and sequence boundaries that can be traced across the basin. Duration of hiatuses associated with these sequence boundaries are uncertain, though our Monte Carlo analysis allows extraction of age estimates from broad and sometimes contradictory ranges and suggests correlation of hiatuses with global sea-level falls. Together, these seismic and biostratigraphic interpretations can be applied (1) to evaluate reservoir continuity and the viability of offshore carbon storage reservoirs in the Baltimore Canyon Trough, (2) to better define the tectonostratigraphic evolution of the basin, and (3) to contribute to the understanding of regional and global variations in Cretaceous sea level.

Paleontology↗

Determination of three-dimensional radiative exchange factors for the Space Shuttle by Monte Carlo

A program was developed to predict radiative exchange factors in three-dimensional configurations with curved, specularly-reflecting surfaces using the Monte Carlo method. It was shown that this can be done efficiently by using the normal Monte Carlo method for closed configurations and/or high surface emissivities, while Energy Partitioning should be used for open configurations and/or low surface emissivities. Comparison with experiments on the Space Shuttle radiator panels showed that the simple model of gray, diffuse emission is sufficient for the prediction of exchange factors between actual (silver-coated teflon) surfaces. For solar-irradiation exchange factors on the Space Shuttle, on the other hand, spectral and directional variations of surface properties must be taken into account.

Modest, M. F.↗

Monte Carlo lattice models for adsorbed polymer conformation

The adhesion between a polymer film and a metal surface is of great technological interest. However, the prediction of adhesion and wear properties of polymer coated metals is quite difficult because a fundamental understanding of the polymer surface interaction does not yet exist. A computer model for the conformation of a polymer molecule adsorbed on a surface is discussed. The chain conformation is assumed to be described by a partially directed random walk on a three dimensional simple cubic lattice. An attractive surface potential is incorporated into the model through the use of a random walk step probability distribution that is anisotropic in the direction normal to the attractive surface. The effects of variations in potential characteristics are qualitatively included by varying both the degree of anisotropy of the step distribution and the range of the anisotropy. Polymer conformation is characterized by the average end to end distance, average radius of gyration, and average number of chain segments adsorbed on the surface.

Good, B. S.↗

Low cloud investigations for project FIRE: Island studies of cloud properties, surface radiation, and boundary layer dynamics. A simulation of the reflectivity over a stratocumulus cloud deck by the Monte Carlo method

The radiation field over a broken stratocumulus cloud deck is simulated by the Monte Carlo method. We conducted four experiments to investigate the main factor for the observed shortwave reflectively over the FIRE flight 2 leg 5, in which reflectivity decreases almost linearly from the cloud center to cloud edge while the cloud top height and the brightness temperature remain almost constant through out the clouds. From our results, the geometry effect, however, did not contribute significantly to what has been observed. We found that the variation of the volume extinction coefficient as a function of its relative position in the cloud affects the reflectivity efficiently. Additional check of the brightness temperature of each experiment also confirms this conclusion. The cloud microphysical data showed some interesting features. We found that the cloud droplet spectrum is nearly log-normal distributed when the clouds were solid. However, whether the shift of cloud droplet spectrum toward the larger end is not certain. The decrease of number density from cloud center to cloud edges seems to have more significant effects on the optical properties.

Ackerman, Thomas P.↗

James Webb Space Telescope Initial Mid-Course Correction Monte Carlo Implementation using Task Parallelism

The James Webb Space Telescope will be launched into a highly elliptical orbit that does not possess sufficient energy to achieve a proper Sun-Earth/Moon L2 libration point orbit. Three mid-course correction (MCC) maneuvers are planned to rectify the energy deficit: MCC-1a, MCC-1b, and MCC-2. To validate the propellant budget and trajectory design methods, a set of Monte Carlo analyses that incorporate MCC maneuver modeling and execution are employed. The first analysis focuses on the effects of launch vehicle injection errors on the magnitude of MCC-1a. The second on the spread of potential V based on the performance of the propulsion system as applied to all three MCC maneuvers. The final highlights the slight, but notable, contribution of the attitude thrusters during each MCC maneuver. Given the possible variations in these three scenarios, the trajectory design methods are determined to be robust to errors in the modeling of the flight system.

James Webb Space Telescope↗

James Webb Space Telescope Initial Mid-Course Correction Monte Carlo Implementation using Task Parallelism

The James Webb Space Telescope will be launched into a highly elliptical orbit that does not possess sufficient energy to achieve a proper Sun-Earth L2 libration point orbit. Three mid-course correction (MCC) maneuvers are planned to rectify the energy deficit: MCC-1a, MCC-1b, and MCC-2. To validate the propellant budget and trajectory design methods, a set of Monte Carlo analyses that incorporate MCC maneuver modeling and execution are employed. The first analysis focuses on the effects of launch vehicle injection errors on the magnitude of MCC-1a. The second on the spread of potential V based on the performance of the propulsion system as applied to all three MCC maneuvers. The final highlights the slight, but notable, contribution of the attitude thrusters during each MCC maneuver. Given the possible variations in these three scenarios, the trajectory design methods are determined to be robust to errors in the modeling of the flight system.

Libration Point Orbit↗

Learning the ground state of a non-stoquastic quantum Hamiltonian in a rugged neural network landscape

Strongly interacting quantum systems described by non-stoquastic Hamiltonians exhibit rich low-temperature physics. Yet, their study poses a formidable challenge, even for state-of-the-art numerical techniques. Here, we investigate systematically the performance of a class of universal variational wave-functions based on artificial neural networks, by considering the frustrated spin- 1/2 1 / 2 J_1-J_2 J 1 − J 2 Heisenberg model on the square lattice. Focusing on neural network architectures without physics-informed input, we argue in favor of using an ansatz consisting of two decoupled real-valued networks, one for the amplitude and the other for the phase of the variational wavefunction. By introducing concrete mitigation strategies against inherent numerical instabilities in the stochastic reconfiguration algorithm we obtain a variational energy comparable to that reported recently with neural networks that incorporate knowledge about the physical system. Through a detailed analysis of the individual components of the algorithm, we conclude that the rugged nature of the energy landscape constitutes the major obstacle in finding a satisfactory approximation to the ground state wavefunction, and prevents learning the correct sign structure. In particular, we show that in the present setup the neural network expressivity and Monte Carlo sampling are not primary limiting factors.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Ca-isotopes as a robust tracer of magmatic differentiation

The large mass difference (~10%) between the two most abundant isotopes of calcium, 40 Ca and 44 Ca, gives Ca great potential in tracking mass-dependent fractionation during magmatic processes. Resolvable Ca-isotope fractionation during fractional crystallization of magma, particularly by feldspar in evolved melts, has been theoretically inferred but not robustly tested in nature. To further explore the effects of magmatic differentiation on Ca-isotope systematics, we studied the late-Permian alkaline igneous suite of the Øyangen Caldera, Oslo Rift, Norway, consisting of volcanic and intrusive units ranging from basanitic to rhyolitic compositions. Major and trace element variations and modeling demonstrate that the main series of samples (N = 21), including basanites, ring-dyke syenites, and central-dome syenites, likely documents a co-genetic and closed-system fractional crystallization sequence. Our data show minimal δ 44/40 Ca variation (< 0.05 ‰) in the intermediate magma and a marked increase in δ 44/40 Ca in the felsic magma of the Øyangen Caldera (from 0.62 ± 0.02 ‰ to 1.15 ± 0.03 ‰ relative to Ca standard, SRM915a). The systematic increase is best explained by equilibrium isotopic fractionation dominated by alkali feldspar in the fractionating mineral assemblage. This is further supported by strong correlations between δ 44/40 Ca, CaO, and Eu/Eu* in the main-series samples. Implementing a Monte Carlo approach, isotopic modeling of the liquid line of descent using Rayleigh fractionation is highly consistent with the observed Ca-isotope evolution. For the first time, we confirm prominent Ca stable isotope fractionation in felsic-stage differentiation of alkaline magma and constrain the isotope fractionation factors of plagioclase and K-feldspar. Integrated with extant estimations on mineral fractionation factors from the literature, our results suggest increasing fractionation effects of rock-forming minerals with decreasing Ca content. Finally, the affirmation of significant Ca-isotope fractionation in alkaline magma by feldspar empowers the application of Ca as a versatile tracer of crustal evolution, allowing further tests in other magmatic conditions across various planetary objects.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Sensor Distortion Effects in Photon Monte Carlo Simulations

We present a detailed method to simulating sensor distortions using a photon and electron Monte Carlo method. We use three-dimensional electrostatic simulations to parameterize the perturbed electric field profile for nonideal sensor details. We follow the conversion of simulated photons, and the subsequent response of the converted electrons to the electric field pattern. These nonideal sensor details can be implemented efficiently in a Monte Carlo approach. We demonstrate that the nonideal sensor distortions have a variety of observable consequence including the modification of the astrometric pattern; the distortion of the electron diffusion size and shape; and the distortion of flats. We show analytic validation of the diffusion physics, reproduce two kinds of edge distortion, and show qualitative validation of field-free regions, lithography errors, and fringing. We also demonstrate that there are two related effects of doping variation having different observable consequences. We show that field distortions from accumulated electrons lead to intensity-dependent point-spread functions and the sublinear variance in flats. The method is implemented in the Photon Simulator and the code is publicly available.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Structural Reliability Using Probability Density Estimation Methods Within NESSUS

A reliability analysis studies a mathematical model of a physical system taking into account uncertainties of design variables and common results are estimations of a response density, which also implies estimations of its parameters. Some common density parameters include the mean value, the standard deviation, and specific percentile(s) of the response, which are measures of central tendency, variation, and probability regions, respectively. Reliability analyses are important since the results can lead to different designs by calculating the probability of observing safe responses in each of the proposed designs. All of this is done at the expense of added computational time as compared to a single deterministic analysis which will result in one value of the response out of many that make up the density of the response. Sampling methods, such as monte carlo (MC) and latin hypercube sampling (LHS), can be used to perform reliability analyses and can compute nonlinear response density parameters even if the response is dependent on many random variables. Hence, both methods are very robust; however, they are computationally expensive to use in the estimation of the response density parameters. Both methods are 2 of 13 stochastic methods that are contained within the Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress (NESSUS) program. NESSUS is a probabilistic finite element analysis (FEA) program that was developed through funding from NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC). It has the additional capability of being linked to other analysis programs; therefore, probabilistic fluid dynamics, fracture mechanics, and heat transfer are only a few of what is possible with this software. The LHS method is the newest addition to the stochastic methods within NESSUS. Part of this work was to enhance NESSUS with the LHS method. The new LHS module is complete, has been successfully integrated with NESSUS, and been used to study four different test cases that have been proposed by the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE). The test cases compare different probabilistic methods within NESSUS because it is important that a user can have confidence that estimates of stochastic parameters of a response will be within an acceptable error limit. For each response, the mean, standard deviation, and 0.99 percentile, are repeatedly estimated which allows confidence statements to be made for each parameter estimated, and for each method. Thus, the ability of several stochastic methods to efficiently and accurately estimate density parameters is compared using four valid test cases. While all of the reliability methods used performed quite well, for the new LHS module within NESSUS it was found that it had a lower estimation error than MC when they were used to estimate the mean, standard deviation, and 0.99 percentile of the four different stochastic responses. Also, LHS required a smaller amount of calculations to obtain low error answers with a high amount of confidence than MC. It can therefore be stated that NESSUS is an important reliability tool that has a variety of sound probabilistic methods a user can employ and the newest LHS module is a valuable new enhancement of the program.

Chamis, Chrisos C.↗

Joint Modeling of Wind Speed and Wind Direction Through a Conditional Approach

Atmospheric near surface wind speed and wind direction play an important role in many applications, ranging from air quality modeling, building design, wind turbine placement to climate change research. It is therefore crucial to accurately estimate the joint probability distribution of wind speed and direction. In this work, we develop a conditional approach to model these two variables, where the joint distribution is decomposed into the product of the marginal distribution of wind direction and the conditional distribution of wind speed given wind direction. To accommodate the circular nature of wind direction, a von Mises mixture model is used; the conditional wind speed distribution is modeled as a directional dependent Weibull distribution via a two-stage estimation procedure, consisting of a directional binned Weibull parameter estimation, followed by a harmonic regression to estimate the dependence of the Weibull parameters on wind direction. A Monte Carlo simulation study indicates that our method outperforms two other approaches in estimation efficiency: one that utilizes periodic spline quantile regression and another that generates data from the commonly used Abe-Ley distribution for cylindrical data. We illustrate our method by using the output from a regional climate model to investigate how the joint distribution of wind speed and direction may change under some future climate scenarios. Our method indicates significant changes in the variation of wind speed with respect to some directions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

MeV Gamma Ray Detection Algorithms for Stacked Silicon Detectors

By making use of the signature of a gamma ray event as it appears in N = 5 to 20 lithium-drifted silicon detectors and applying smart selection algorithms, gamma rays in the energy range of 1 to 8 MeV can be detected with good efficiency and selectivity. Examples of the types of algorithms used for different energy regions include the simple sum mode, the sum-coincidence mode used in segmented detectors, unique variations on sum-coincidence for an N-dimensional vector event, and a new and extremely useful mode for double escape peak spectroscopy at pair-production energies. The latter algorithm yields a spectrum similar to that of the pair spectrometer, but without the need of the dual external segments for double escape coincidence, and without the large loss in efficiency of double escape events. Background events due to Compton scattering are largely suppressed. Monte Carlo calculations were used to model the gamma ray interactions in the silicon, in order to enable testing of a wide array of different algorithms on the event N-vectors for a large-N stack.

McMurray, Robert E. Jr.↗

Studies of Localization Effects on Transverse Kinematic Imbalance in the GENIE Generator

The forthcoming Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) requires precise modeling of neutrino--nucleus interactions to achieve its neutrino-oscillation measurement goals. GENIE, the Monte Carlo event generator used by DUNE and other Fermilab-based experiments as a central value model for neutrino-nucleus cross sections, exhibits known discrepancies in comparison to MicroBooNE cross section data, especially when considering neutrino scattering events' transverse kinematic imbalance (TKI). For quasielastic-like measurements, the data show a larger transverse missing momentum tail while maintaining a peak similar to that predicted by the baseline GENIE model. Previous attempts at a solution include variations of final-state interaction (FSI) strengths, incorrectly decreasing both the peak and tail, thus leaving the discrepancy unresolved. This work investigates whether inconsistencies between local and global treatments of intranuclear physics contribute to the observed mismodeling. In this work, GENIE FSI routines have been modified to directly utilize intranuclear particle positions, thereby introducing a newly localized momentum treatment in correlation with the nominal density in both the hA and hN intranuclear cascade models for their 2018 and 2025 variants. Meson-exchange-current (MEC) localization was also tested for the hN 2018 model. Comparisons of the intranuclear nucleons' ("scattering center") momentum and its radial dependence validate the localization implementation. However, while such consistent localization produces modest changes in the proton momentum spectrum at low-to-medium momenta, only small changes are observed in the TKI distributions. These changes are insufficient to account for the discrepancy with MicroBooNE data. Although a localized treatment improves the internal consistency of the GENIE model, the origin of the TKI discrepancy remains unresolved by such a solution.

Bulla, Braden [Ctr. Coll., Danville; Fermilab]↗

Degree and direction of polarization of multiple scattered light. II - Earth's atmosphere with aerosols.

The radiance, polarization, and direction of polarization of the radiation reflected and transmitted through the atmosphere are calculated by a Monte Carlo method on the basis of a realistic model of the atmosphere. The calculated polarization is shown to depend on the aerosol amount and to have normally a value intermediate between that for pure Rayleigh and pure aerosol scattering. The polarization for multiple scattered photons is usually less than the value calculated for single scattering, but may be larger in low-polarization regions near other regions of high polarization. The direction of polarization shows little variation with either the aerosol amount or the value of the surface albedo.

Plass, G. N.↗

Scales of North Atlantic wind stress curl determined from the comprehensive ocean-atmosphere data set

Nineteen years of wind data over the North Atlantic are used to calculate a field of wind stress curl. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is performed on this field, resulting in spatial patterns of wind stress curl and associated time series. A Monte Carlo technique is used to establish the statistical significance of each spatial pattern, and the associated time series are spectrally analyzed. The first four statistically significant EOF modes represent more than 50 percent of the curl variance, and the spatial patterns of curl associated with these modes exhibit the major elements of North Atlantic climatology. Most of the time series spectral variance is contained in annual and semiannual frequencies. The features observed include the individual annual variation of the subtropical high and the subpolar low, the annual oscillation of intensity between pressure centers, the influence of localized strong SST gradients and associated cyclogenesis regions, and the constant nature of the trades.

Ehret, Laura L.↗

Reflection of a thick planar shock wave from a coplanar surface

The reflection of a thick shock wave from an adsorbing surface has been studied for argon and neon test gases using the direct simulation Monte Carlo method and laboratory shock-tube experiments. In the simulation, collisions between gas atoms were calculated with a point-center repulsive intermolecular potential, and collisions between gas atoms and the surface were described by a simple two-parameter model which includes the effects of adsorption and thermal accommodation. Experimental data included normal stress and temperature time histories on the surface of a shock-tube and wall. These data and published data of density variations near the end wall were compared with simulation results to assess the influence of adsorption and accommodation on the flowfield and the surface and also to infer optimum values for the surface-interaction model parameters. Good quantitative agreement between simulation and laboratory data was found with this simple surface-interaction model.

Deiwert, G. S.↗

Regularized Monte-Carlo calculations of the optical polarization induced by scattering in X-ray binaries

The results of regularized Monte Carlo calculations of the optical polarization Stokes parameters expected as a result of scattering from gas streams or accretion wakes in close binary systems whose properties resemble those of X-ray binaries are presented. The physical processes occurring in the system are represented by a model which follows a selected sample of individual photon paths from each emitting element on the surface of the primary to the photon's detection at earth. The result represents the variations in the intensity from each individual emitting element caused by the effects of limb darkening, gravity darkening, and variation in the projected area of the emitting element as seen from the scattering element.

Dolan, J. F.↗