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At least 415 records · Page 23

Cost Projections for Utility-Scale Battery Storage

In this work we document the development of cost and performance projections for utility-scale lithium-ion battery systems, with a focus on 4-hour duration systems. The projections are developed from an analysis of over 25 publications that consider utility-scale storage costs. The suite of publications demonstrates varied cost reduction for battery storage over time. Figure ES-1 shows the low, mid, and high cost projections developed in this work (on a normalized basis) relative to the published values. Figure ES-2 shows the overall capital cost for a 4-hour battery system based on those projections, with storage costs of 124 dollars/kWh, 207 dollars/kWh, and 338 dollars/kWh in 2030 and 76 dollars/kWh, 156 dollars/kWh, and 258 dollars/kWh in 2050. Battery variable operations and maintenance costs, lifetimes, and efficiencies are also discussed, with recommended values selected based on the publications surveyed.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

PRIMA-X - Performance Retargeting of Instrumentation, Measurement, and Analysis Technologies for Exascale Computing

The PRIMA-X (Performance Retargeting of Instrumentation, Measurement, and Analysis Technologies for Exascale Computing) project is the successor of the DOE PRIMA (Performance Refactoring of Instrumentation, Measurement, and Analysis Technologies for Petascale Computing) project, which addressed the challenge of creating a core measurement infrastructure that would serve as a common platform for both integrating leading parallel performance systems (notably TAU and Scalasca) and developing next-generation scalable performance tools. The PRIMA-X project shifts the focus away from refactorization of robust performance tools towards a re-targeting of the parallel performance measurement and analysis architecture for extreme scales. The massive concurrency, asynchronous execution dynamics, hardware heterogeneity, and multi-objective prerequisites (performance, power, resilience) that identify exascale systems introduce fundamental constraints on the ability to carry forward existing performance methodologies. In particular, there must be a deemphasis of per-thread observation techniques to significantly reduce the otherwise unsustainable flood of redundant performance data. Instead, it will be necessary to assimilate multi-level resource observations into macroscopic performance views, from which resilient performance metrics can be attributed to the computational features of the application. This requires a scalable framework for node-level and system-wide monitoring and runtime analyses of dynamic performance information. Also, the interest in optimizing parallelism parameters with respect to performance and energy drives the integration of tool capabilities in the exascale environment further. Initially, PRIMA-X was a collaborative project between the University of Oregon (lead institution) and the German Research School for Simulation Sciences (GRS). Because Prof. Wolf, the PI at GRS, accepted a position as full professor at Technische Universitaet Darmstadt (TU Darmstadt) starting February 1st, 2015, the work of GRS was continued at TU Darmstadt. This report covers the work at TU Darmstadt after the transition. The first main accomplishment of TU Darmstadt is the development of different techniques to aggregate performance data on the level of threads. TU Darmstadt evaluated different schemes designed at GRS during the first phase of this project and integrated them into Score-P, a widely used performance measurement framework for HPC applications. The second main accomplishment is a substantial increase of Score-P’s scalability, achieved by improving its internal representation of the underlying system. Third, we extended our performance-modeling tool Extra-P to automatically create models with more than one input parameter (e.g., process count and input size), which was previously impossible. These models allow the performance behavior of an application to be extrapolated to larger machines. Specific applications of the new multi-parameter capability realized in this project include modeling the isoefficiency function of task-based applications and a novel co-design methodology. Further extensions of Extra-P comprise online modeling functionality, automatic refinement of the model search space, and segmented performance modeling. Further contributions include new locality metrics for both shared- and distributed-memory applications, a new way of measuring the impact of inter-application inference on the execution time of an application, and finally an automatic method that selects appropriate OpenMP constructs for the parallelization of sequential code and classifies the affected variables based on their sharing semantics.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Electron-neutrino selection and reconstruction in the MicroBooNE LArTPC using the Pandora multi-algorithm pattern recognition

MicroBooNE (the Micro Booster Neutrino Experiment) is a liquid argon time-projection chamber experiment designed for short-baseline neutrino physics, currently running at Fermilab. It aims to address the anomalous excess of low-energy events observed by the MiniBooNE experiment. In this note we present a fully automated event selection algorithm to identify charged-current electron neutrino event candidates with no pions and at least one proton in the final state (ν e CC0π-Np). The efficiency of the current selection algorithm is (46.5±0.3) %. We also show some cuts on kinematic and geometric variables which reject background events. These cuts have been validated by analyzing two event samples orthogonal to our signal. Future improvements have been identified which will improve the reconstruction efficiency, especially at low energy.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Cost Projections for Utility-Scale Battery Storage (2020 Update)

In this work we describe the development of cost and performance projections for utility-scale lithium-ion battery systems, with a focus on 4-hour duration systems. The projections are developed from an analysis of 19 publications that consider utility-scale storage costs. The suite of publications demonstrates varied cost reductions for battery storage over time. Figure ES-1 shows the low, mid, and high cost projections developed in this work (on a normalized basis) relative to the published values. Figure ES-2 shows the overall capital cost for a 4-hour battery system based on those projections, with storage costs of $\$$144/kWh, $\$$208/kWh, and $\$$293/kWh in 2030 and $\$$88/kWh, $\$$156/kWh, and $\$$219/kWh in 2050. Battery variable operations and maintenance costs, lifetimes, and efficiencies are also discussed, with recommended values selected based on the publications surveyed.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Cost Projections for Utility-Scale Battery Storage: 2021 Update

In this work we describe the development of cost and performance projections for utility-scale lithium-ion battery systems, with a focus on 4-hour duration systems. The projections are developed from an analysis of recent publications that consider utility-scale storage costs. The suite of publications demonstrates varied cost reductions for battery storage over time. Figure ES-1 shows the low, mid, and high cost projections developed in this work (on a normalized basis) relative to the published values. Figure ES-2 shows the overall capital cost for a 4-hour battery system based on those projections, with storage costs of $\$$143/kWh, $\$$198/kWh, and $\$$248/kWh in 2030 and $\$$87/kWh, $\$$149/kWh, and $\$$248/kWh in 2050. Battery variable operations and maintenance costs, lifetimes, and efficiencies are also discussed, with recommended values selected based on the publications surveyed.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Specification of EBR-II Gamma Scan Data from the Precision Gamma Scanner

The gamma scan data stored in the FIPD was originally measured using the Precision Gamma Scanner (PGS) at the Hot Fuel Examination Facility (HFEF) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). This system was originally manufactured in 1971 (when the facilities, now at INL, were operated by Argonne National Laboratory) and was upgraded on several occasions. It consists of a germanium gamma ray detector (the exact nature of which changed over time as technology improved), a variable-slit collimator that blocks the view of gamma emissions from all but the selected area of the target, and a computer-controlled system for translating a sample past the slit and logging the data.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Cost Projections for Utility-Scale Battery Storage: 2023 Update

In this work we describe the development of cost and performance projections for utility-scale lithium-ion battery systems, with a focus on 4-hour duration systems. The projections are developed from an analysis of recent publications that include utility-scale storage costs. The suite of publications demonstrates wide variation in projected cost reductions for battery storage over time. We use the recent publications to create low, mid, and high cost projections. Projected storage costs are $245/kWh, $326/kWh, and $403/kWh in 2030 and $159/kWh, $226/kWh, and $348/kWh in 2050. Battery variable operations and maintenance costs, lifetimes, and efficiencies are also discussed, with recommended values selected based on the publications surveyed.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Cost Projections for Utility-Scale Battery Storage: 2025 Update

In this work we describe the development of cost and performance projections for utility-scale lithium-ion battery systems, with a focus on 4-hour duration systems. The projections are developed from an analysis of recent publications that include utility-scale storage costs. The suite of publications demonstrates wide variation in projected cost reductions for battery storage over time. We present the suite of projected cost reductions collected from the literature as well as the low, mid, and high cost projections developed in this work. Storage cost projections are $\$$152/kWh, $\$$247/kWh, and $\$$349/kWh in 2035 and $\$$111/kWh, $\$$184/kWh, and $\$$333/kWh in 2050 for the low, mid, and high cases respectively. Battery variable operations and maintenance costs, lifetimes, and efficiencies are also discussed, with recommended values selected based on the publications surveyed.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Simulations of the Fe K α Energy Spectra from Gravitationally Microlensed Quasars

The analysis of the Chandra X-ray observations of the gravitationally lensed quasar RX J1131−1231 revealed the detection of multiple and energy-variable spectral peaks. The spectral variability is thought to result from the microlensing of the Fe K α emission, selectively amplifying the emission from certain regions of the accretion disk with certain effective frequency shifts of the Fe K α line emission. In this paper, we combine detailed simulations of the emission of Fe K α photons from the accretion disk of a Kerr black hole with calculations of the effect of gravitational microlensing on the observed energy spectra. The simulations show that microlensing can indeed produce multiply peaked energy spectra. We explore the dependence of the spectral characteristics on black hole spin, accretion disk inclination, corona height, and microlensing amplification factor and show that the measurements can be used to constrain these parameters. We find that the range of observed spectral peak energies of QSO RX J1131−1231 can only be reproduced for black hole inclinations exceeding 70° and for lamppost corona heights of less than 30 gravitational radii above the black hole. We conclude by emphasizing the scientific potential of studies of the microlensed Fe K α quasar emission and the need for more detailed modeling that explores how the results change for more realistic accretion disk and corona geometries and microlensing magnification patterns. A full analysis should furthermore model the signal-to-noise ratio of the observations and the resulting detection biases.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Fermi-LAT Lightcurve Repository

The Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) lightcurve repository (LCR) is a publicly available, continually updated library of gamma-ray lightcurves of variable Fermi-LAT sources generated over multiple timescales. The Fermi-LAT LCR aims to provide publication-quality lightcurves binned on timescales of 3, 7, and 30 days for 1525 sources deemed variable in the source catalog of the first 10 yr of Fermi-LAT observations. The repository consists of lightcurves generated through full likelihood analyses that model the sources and the surrounding region, providing fluxes and photon indices for each time bin. The LCR is intended as a resource for the time-domain and multimessenger communities by allowing users to search LAT data quickly to identify correlated variability and flaring emission episodes from gamma-ray sources. We describe the sample selection and analysis employed by the LCR and provide an overview of the associated data access portal.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Nearly a decade-long repeatable seasonal diversity patterns of bacterioplankton communities in the eutrophic Lake Donghu (Wuhan, China)

Uncovering which environmental factors have the greatest influence on community diversity patterns and how ecological processes govern community turnover are key questions related to understanding community assembly mechanisms. Although we have good understanding of plant and animal community assembly, the mechanisms regulating diversity patterns of aquatic bacterial communities in lake ecosystems remains poorly understood. Here we present nearly a decade-long time-series study of bacterioplankton communities from the eutrophic Lake Donghu (Wuhan, China) using 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing. We found strong repeatable seasonal patterns for the overall community, common (detected in more than 50% samples) and dominant bacterial taxa (relative abundance > 1%). Moreover, community composition tracked the seasonal temperature gradient, indicating that temperature is an important environmental factor controlling observed diversity patterns. Total phosphorus also contributed significantly to the seasonal shifts in bacterioplankton composition. However, any spatial pattern across the main lake areas was overwhelmed by temporal variability in this eutrophic lake system. Phylogenetic analysis further indicated that 75%-82% of community turnover was governed by homogeneous selection, suggesting that the bacterioplankton communities are mainly controlled by niche-based processes. However, dominant niches available within seasons might be occupied by similar combinations of bacterial taxa with modest dispersal rates throughout this lake system. This study gives us important insights into community assembly and seasonal turnover of lake bacterioplankton, it may be also useful to predict temporal patterns of other planktonic communities.

16S rRNA amplicon sequencing↗

Exploring the role of biotic factors in regulating the spatial variability in land surface phenology across four temperate forest sites

Here, land surface phenology (LSP), the characterization of plant phenology with satellite data, is essential for understanding the effects of climate change on ecosystem functions. Considerable LSP variation is observed within local landscapes, and the role of biotic factors in regulating such variation remains underexplored. In this study, we selected four National Ecological Observatory Network terrestrial sites with minor topographic relief to investigate how biotic factors regulate intra-site LSP variability. We utilized plant functional type (PFT) maps, functional traits, and LSP data to assess the explanatory power of biotic factors for the start and end of season (SOS and EOS) variability. Our results indicate that PFTs alone explain only 0.8–23.4% of intra-site SOS and EOS variation, whereas including functional traits significantly improves explanatory power, with cross-validation correlations ranging from 0.50 to 0.85. While functional traits exhibited diverse effects on SOS and EOS across different sites, traits related to competitive ability and productivity were important for explaining both SOS and EOS variation at these sites. These findings reveal that plants exhibit diverse phenological responses to comparable environmental conditions, and functional traits significantly contribute to intra-site LSP variability, highlighting the importance of intrinsic biotic properties in regulating plant phenology.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of CMIP6 GCMs Over the CONUS for Downscaling Studies

Despite the necessity of Global Climate Models (GCMs) sub-selection in downscaling studies, an objective approach for their selection is currently lacking. Building on the previously established concepts in GCMs evaluation frameworks, we develop a weighted averaging technique to remove the redundancy in the evaluation criteria and rank 37 GCMs from the sixth phase of the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project over the contiguous United States. GCMs are rated based on their average performance across 66 evaluation measures in the historical period (1981–2014) after each metric is weighted between zero and one, depending on its uniqueness. The robustness of the outcome is tested by repeating the process with the empirical orthogonal function analysis in which each GCM is ranked based on its sum of distances from the reference in the principal component space. The two methodologies work in contrasting ways to remove the metrics redundancy but eventually develop similar GCMs rankings. A disparity in GCMs' behavior related to their sensitivity to the size of the evaluation suite is observed, highlighting the need for comprehensive multi-variable GCMs evaluation at varying timescales for determining their skillfulness over a region. The sub-selection goal is to use a representative set of skillful models over the region of interest without substantial overlap in their future climate responses and modeling errors in representing historical climate. Additional analyses of GCMs' independence and spread in their future projections provide the necessary information to objectively select GCMs while keeping all aspects of necessity in view.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Global estimates of the fitness advantage of SARS-CoV-2 variant Omicron

Abstract New variants of SARS-CoV-2 show remarkable heterogeneity in their relative fitness over both time and space. In this paper we extend the tools available for estimating the selection strength for new SARS-CoV-2 variants to a hierarchical, mixed-effects, renewal equation model. This formulation allows us to estimate selection effects at the global level while incorporating both measured and unmeasured heterogeneity among countries. Applying this model to the spread of Omicron in forty countries, we find evidence for very strong but very heterogeneous selection effects. To test whether this heterogeneity is explained by differences in the immune landscape, we considered several measures of vaccination rates and recent population-level infection as covariates, finding moderately strong, statistically significant effects. We also found a significant positive correlation between the selection advantage of Delta and Omicron at the country level, suggesting that other region-specific explanatory variables of fitness differences do exist. Our method is implemented in the Stan programming language, can be run on standard consumer-grade computing resources, and will be straightforward to apply to future variants.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Power-Law Scaling in the Internal Variability of Cumulus Cloud Size Distributions due to Subsampling and Spatial Organization

In this study, the spatial structure of cumulus cloud populations is investigated using three-dimensional snapshots from large-domain LES experiments. The aim is to understand and quantify the internal variability in cloud size distributions due to subsampling effects and spatial organization. A set of idealized shallow cumulus cases is selected with varying degrees of spatial organization, including a slowly organizing marine precipitating case and five more quickly organizing diurnal cases over land. A subdomain analysis is applied, yielding cloud number distributions at sample sizes ranging from severely undersampled to nearly complete. A strong power-law scaling is found in the relation between cloud number variability and subdomain size, reflecting an inverse linear relation. Scaling subdomain size by cloud size yields a data collapse across time points and cases, highlighting the role played by cloud spacing in controlling the stochastic variability. Spatial organization acts on top of this baseline model by increasing the maximum cloud size and by enhancing the variability in the number of smallest clouds. This reflects that the smaller clouds start to live on top of larger-scale thermodynamic structures, such as cold pools, which favor or inhibit their formation. Compositing all continental cumulus cases suggests the existence of a prototype diurnal time dependence in the spatial organization. A simple stochastic expression for cloud number variability is proposed that is formulated in terms of two dimensionless groups, which allows objective estimation of the degree of spatial organization in simulated and observed cumulus cloud populations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Representing heterogeneity in structural relationships among multiple choice variables using a latent segmentation approach

Travel model systems often adopt a single decision structure that links several activity-travel choices together. The single decision structure is then used to predict activity-travel choices, with those downstream in the decision-making chain influenced by those upstream in the sequence. The adoption of a singular sequential causal structure to depict relationships among activity-travel choices in travel demand model systems ignores the possibility that some choices are made jointly as a bundle as well as the possible presence of structural heterogeneity in the population with respect to decision-making processes. As different segments in the population may adopt and follow different causal decision-making mechanisms when making selected choices jointly, it would be of value to develop simultaneous equations model systems relating multiple endogenous choice variables that are able to identify population subgroups following alternative causal decision structures. Because the segments are not known a priori, they are considered latent and determined endogenously within a joint modeling framework proposed in this paper. The methodology is applied to a national mobility survey data set to identify population segments that follow different causal structures relating residential location choice, vehicle ownership, and car-share and mobility service usage. It is found that the model revealing three distinct latent segments best describes the data, confirming the efficacy of the modeling approach and the existence of structural heterogeneity in decision-making in the population. Future versions of activity-travel model systems should strive to incorporate such structural heterogeneity to better reflect varying decision processes across population subgroups.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Machine learning to predict biomass sorghum yields under future climate scenarios

Crop yield modeling is critical in the design of national strategies for agricultural production, particularly in the context of a changing climate. Forecasting yields of bioenergy crops at fine spatial resolutions can help to evaluate near-term and long-term pathways for scaling up bio-based fuel and chemical production, and for understanding the impacts of abiotic stressors such as severe droughts and temperature extremes on potential biomass supply. In this work we used a large dataset of 28,364 Sorghum bicolor yield samples (uniquely identified by county and year of observation), environmental variables, and multiple approaches to analyze historical trends in sorghum productivity across the USA. We selected the most accurate machine learning approach (a variation of the random forest approach) to predict future trends in sorghum yields under four greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios and two irrigation regimes. We identified irrigation practices, vapor pressure deficit, and time (a proxy for technological improvement) as the most important predictors of sorghum productivity. Our results showed a decreasing trend of sorghum yields over future years (on average 2.7% from 2018 to 2099), with greater decline under a high GHG emissions scenario (3.8%) and in the absence of irrigation (4.6%). Geographically, we observed the steepest predicted declines in the Great Lakes (8.2%), Upper Midwest (7.5%), and Heartland (6.7%) regions. Our study demonstrates the use of machine learning to identify environmental controllers of sorghum biomass yield and predict yields with reasonable accuracy. These results can inform the development of more realistic biomass supply projections for bioenergy if sorghum production is scaled up. (c) 2020 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

An analytical method for identifying synergies between behind-the-meter battery and thermal energy storage

Electric utilities build generation capacity to meet the highest demand period, and they often pass on the costs associated with these peaking generators to building owners through demand charges. Building owners can minimize these demand charges by shifting energy use away from peak periods with behind-the-meter storage. This storage can include batteries, which can directly shift the metered load, or thermal energy storage, which can shift thermal-driven electric loads like air conditioning. However, there is a lack of research on how best to combine battery and thermal energy storage. In this study, we develop an analytical sizing method to calculate the potential demand reduction and annualized cost savings for different combinations of thermal and battery energy storage sizes. We show that adding batteries to a thermal energy storage system can increase the total system's load shaving potential. This is particularly true when the building has onsite photovoltaic generation or electric vehicle charging, which add significant variability to the load shape. We also show that for a given total storage size, selecting a higher fraction of thermal energy storage can significantly lower the cycling of the battery, and therefore extend the battery life. This, combined with the expected lower first cost of thermal energy storage materials compared to batteries, shows that hybrid energy storage systems can outperform a standalone battery or standalone thermal storage system. Assuming the thermal storage has a capital cost 6x lower than the battery, our analysis shows that the optimal system is 71% thermal energy storage and 29% battery energy storage for a scenario with electric vehicle charging. The annualized cost savings for this system are $48.6 k/yr, whereas an equivalently sized standalone thermal energy storage system would provide annualized cost savings of $28.5 k/yr and a standalone battery would lead to savings of $8.72 k/yr. The hybrid system also reduces battery cycling by 52% compared to a standalone battery, extending battery lifetime.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗