Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “uncertainty reduction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 415 records · Page 23

Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) Capability Maturity Levels for Ecosystems Enabling Digital Transformation

Digital engineering (DE) and integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) are widely recognized as critical enablers of faster, more affordable, and more reliable aerospace systems. However, many organizations have struggled to realize the promised return on investment (ROI) from digital initiatives. A primary reason is the absence of a shared, decision-focused framework that distinguishes simple digitization of existing workflows from true digital transformation that fundamentally changes how engineering decisions are made. This paper introduces an ICME capability maturity framework that fills this gap. The framework defines six cumulative ICME capability maturity levels (CMLs), explicitly tied to decision authority, engineering integration, optimization, and uncertainty management across material, process, structure, and performance scales. It is designed to complement established readiness metrics such as technology readiness levels (TRLs), manufacturing readiness levels (MRLs), and integration readiness levels (IRLs), by addressing a missing dimension: the conditions required for model-informed decision authority across scales. A unifying figure and capability table illustrate the six-level ICME Capability Maturity Framework, showing how organizations progress from digitization—with limited or negative ROI—to true digital transformation, where ICME-enabled workflows deliver measurable improvements in decision quality, cycle time, risk reduction, and reuse. The framework is intended for both technical practitioners and executive leadership, providing a common language to assess current state, guide roadmaps, align software ecosystem investments, and set realistic expectations for digital transformation outcomes. A regulatory-relevant statement clarifying the relationship between ICME capability and existing certification frameworks is provided.

ICME↗

Atmospheric effects on the NDVI - Strategies for its removal

The compositing technique used to derive global vegetation index (NDVI) from the NOAA AVHRR radiances reduces the residual effect of water vapor and aerosol on the NDVI. The reduction in the atmospheric effect is shown using a comprehensive measured data set for desert conditions, and a simulation for grass with continental aerosol. A statistical analaysis of the probability of occurrence of aerosol optical thickness and precipitable water vapor measured in different climatic regimes is used for this simulation. It is concluded that for a long compositing period (e.g., 27 days), the residual aerosol optical thickness and precipitable water vapor are usually too small to be corrected. For a 9-day compositing, the residual average aerosol effect may be about twice the correction uncertainty. For Landsat TM or Earth Observing System Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (EOS-MODIS) data, the newly defined atmospherically resistant vegetation index (ARVI) is more promising than possible direct atmospheric correction schemes, except for heavy desert dust conditions.

Kaufman, Y. J.↗

Preconditioning of overcast-to-broken cloud transitions by riming in marine cold air outbreaks

Marine cold air outbreaks (CAOs) commonly form overcast cloud decks that transition into broken cloud fields downwind, dramatically altering the local radiation budget. In this study, we investigate the impact of frozen hydrometeors on these transitions. We focus on a CAO case in the NW Atlantic, the location of the multi-year flight campaign ACTIVATE (Aerosol Cloud meTeorology Interactions oVer the western ATlantic Experiment). We use MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2) reanalysis fields to drive large eddy simulations with mixed-phase two-moment microphysics in a Lagrangian framework. We find that transitions are triggered by substantial rain (rainwater paths >25 g m−2), and only simulations that allow for aerosol depletion result in sustained breakups, as observed. Using a range of diagnostic ice nucleating particle concentrations, Ninp, we find that increasing ice progressively accelerates transitions, thus abbreviating the overcast state. Ice particles affect the cloud-topped boundary layer evolution, primarily through riming-related processes prior to substantial rain, leading to (1) a reduction in cloud liquid water, (2) early consumption of cloud condensation nuclei, and (3) early and light precipitation cooling and moistening below cloud. We refer to these three effects collectively as “preconditioning by riming”. Greater boundary layer aerosol concentrations available as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) delay the onset of substantial rain. However, cloud breakup and low CCN concentration final stages are found to be inevitable in this case, due, primarily, to liquid water path buildup. An ice-modulated cloud transition speed suggests the possibility of a negative cloud–climate feedback. To address prevailing uncertainties in the model representation of mixed-phase processes, the magnitude of ice formation and riming impacts and, thereby, the strength of an associated negative cloud–climate feedback process, requires further observational evaluation by targeting riming hot spots with in situ imaging probes that allow for both the characterization of ice particles and abundance of supercooled droplets.

Marine cold air outbreaks↗

Supplement of: The Influence of Volcanic Eruptions on the Climate of Tropical South America During the Last Millennium in an Isotope-Enabled General Circulation Model

Currently, little is known on how volcanic eruptions impact large-scale climate phenomena such as South American paleo-intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) position and summer monsoon behavior. In this paper, an analysis of observations and model simulations is employed to assess the influence of large volcanic eruptions on the climate of tropical South America. This problem is first considered for historically recent volcanic episodes for which more observations are available but where fewer events exist and the confounding effects of El NioSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) lead to inconclusive interpretation of the impact of volcanic eruptions at the continental scale. Therefore, we also examine a greater number of reconstructed volcanic events for the period 850CE to present that are incorporated into the NASA GISS ModelE2-R simulation of the last millennium.An advantage of this model is its ability to explicitly track water isotopologues throughout the hydrologic cycle and simulating the isotopic imprint following a large eruption. This effectively removes a degree of uncertainty associated with error-prone conversion of isotopic signals into climate variables, and allows for a direct comparison between GISS simulations and paleoclimate proxy records.Our analysis reveals that both precipitation and oxygen isotope variability respond with a distinct seasonal and spatial structure across tropical South America following an eruption. During austral winter, the heavy oxygen isotope in precipitation is enriched, likely due to reduced moisture convergence in the ITCZ domain and reduced rainfall over northern South America. During austral summer, however, more negative values of the precipitation isotopic composition are simulated over Amazonia, despite reductions in rainfall, suggesting that the isotopic response is not a simple function of the amount effect. During the South American monsoon season, the amplitude of the temperature response to volcanic forcing is larger than the rather weak and spatially less coherent precipitation signal, complicating the isotopic response to changes in the hydrologic cycle.

Colose, Christopher↗

Finite Element Analysis and Test Correlation of a 10-Meter Inflation-Deployed Solar Sail

Under the direction of the NASA In-Space Propulsion Technology Office, the team of L Garde, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Ball Aerospace, and NASA Langley Research Center has been developing a scalable solar sail configuration to address NASA's future space propulsion needs. Prior to a flight experiment of a full-scale solar sail, a comprehensive phased test plan is currently being implemented to advance the technology readiness level of the solar sail design. These tests consist of solar sail component, subsystem, and sub-scale system ground tests that simulate the vacuum and thermal conditions of the space environment. Recently, two solar sail test articles, a 7.4-m beam assembly subsystem test article and a 10-m four-quadrant solar sail system test article, were tested in vacuum conditions with a gravity-offload system to mitigate the effects of gravity. This paper presents the structural analyses simulating the ground tests and the correlation of the analyses with the test results. For programmatic risk reduction, a two-prong analysis approach was undertaken in which two separate teams independently developed computational models of the solar sail test articles using the finite element analysis software packages: NEiNastran and ABAQUS. This paper compares the pre-test and post-test analysis predictions from both software packages with the test data including load-deflection curves from static load tests, and vibration frequencies and mode shapes from vibration tests. The analysis predictions were in reasonable agreement with the test data. Factors that precluded better correlation of the analyses and the tests were uncertainties in the material properties, test conditions, and modeling assumptions used in the analyses.

Sleight, David W.↗

The Influence of Volcanic Eruptions on the Climate of Tropical South America During the Last Millennium in an Isotope-Enabled General Circulation Model

Currently, little is known on how volcanic eruptions impact large-scale climate phenomena such as South American paleo-intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) position and summer monsoon behavior. In this paper, an analysis of observations and model simulations is employed to assess the influence of large volcanic eruptions on the climate of tropical South America. This problem is first considered for historically recent volcanic episodes for which more observations are available but where fewer events exist and the confounding effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) lead to inconclusive interpretation of the impact of volcanic eruptions at the continental scale. Therefore, we also examine a greater number of reconstructed volcanic events for the period 850 CE to present that are incorporated into the NASA GISS ModelE2-R simulation of the last millennium. An advantage of this model is its ability to explicitly track water isotopologues throughout the hydrologic cycle and simulating the isotopic imprint following a large eruption. This effectively removes a degree of uncertainty associated with error-prone conversion of isotopic signals into climate variables, and allows for a direct comparison between GISS simulations and paleoclimate proxy records. Our analysis reveals that both precipitation and oxygen isotope variability respond with a distinct seasonal and spatial structure across tropical South America following an eruption. During austral winter, the heavy oxygen isotope in precipitation is enriched, likely due to reduced moisture convergence in the ITCZ domain and reduced rainfall over northern South America. During austral summer, however, more negative values of the precipitation isotopic composition are simulated over Amazonia, despite reductions in rainfall, suggesting that the isotopic response is not a simple function of the "amount effect". During the South American monsoon season, the amplitude of the temperature response to volcanic forcing is larger than the rather weak and spatially less coherent precipitation signal, complicating the isotopic response to changes in the hydrologic cycle.

Colose, Christopher M.↗

Structural Analysis of an Inflation-Deployed Solar Sail With Experimental Validation

Under the direction of the NASA In-Space Propulsion Technology Office, the team of L Garde, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Ball Aerospace, and NASA Langley Research Center has been developing a scalable solar sail configuration to address NASA s future space propulsion needs. Prior to a flight experiment of a full-scale solar sail, a comprehensive phased test plan is currently being implemented to advance the technology readiness level of the solar sail design. These tests consist of solar sail component, subsystem, and sub-scale system ground tests that simulate the vacuum and thermal conditions of the space environment. Recently, two solar sail test articles, a 7.4-m beam assembly subsystem test article and a 10-m four-quadrant solar sail system test article, were tested in vacuum conditions with a gravity-offload system to mitigate the effects of gravity. This paper presents the structural analyses simulating the ground tests and the correlation of the analyses with the test results. For programmatic risk reduction, a two-prong analysis approach was undertaken in which two separate teams independently developed computational models of the solar sail test articles using the finite element analysis software packages: NEiNastran and ABAQUS. This paper compares the pre-test and post-test analysis predictions from both software packages with the test data including load-deflection curves from static load tests, and vibration frequencies and mode shapes from structural dynamics tests. The analysis predictions were in reasonable agreement with the test data. Factors that precluded better correlation of the analyses and the tests were uncertainties in the material properties, test conditions, and modeling assumptions used in the analyses.

Sleight, David W.↗

IUE data reduction - The parameterization of the motion of the IUE reseau grids and spectral formats as a function of time and temperature

Improvements are made on IUE data reduction using corrected reseau positions and dispersion constants for temperature variations and secular effects. Models describing the motion of the high dispersion spectral format as a function of THDA alone reduce the scatter in the predicted position of a given wavelength, and scatter is further reduced when a linear dependence on time is also allowed. A correction technique is presented for early data which reduces errors in wavelength assignments from over 30 km/s to less than 3 km/s in high dispersion. The reseau temperature correction helps locate the minimum background signal, centered between the echelle orders. The residual uncertainty of 2 km/s for SWP and 2.7 km/s for LWR makes the wavelength accuracy of time and temperature corrected IUE spectra comparable to that of temperature corrected data from the Copernicus satellite.

Thompson, R. W.↗

Newton like: Minimal residual methods applied to transonic flow calculations

A computational technique for the solution of the full potential equation is presented. The method consists of outer and inner iterations. The outer iterate is based on a Newton like algorithm, and a preconditioned Minimal Residual method is used to seek an approximate solution of the system of linear equations arising at each inner iterate. The present iterative scheme is formulated so that the uncertainties and difficulties associated with many iterative techniques, namely the requirements of acceleration parameters and the treatment of additional boundary conditions for the intermediate variables, are eliminated. Numerical experiments based on the new method for transonic potential flows around the NACA 0012 airfoil at different Mach numbers and different angles of attack are presented, and these results are compared with those obtained by the Approximate Factorization technique. Extention to three dimensional flow calculations and application in finite element methods for fluid dynamics problems by the present method are also discussed. The Inexact Newton like method produces a smoother reduction in the residual norm, and the number of supersonic points and circulations are rapidly established as the number of iterations is increased.

Wong, Y. S.↗

Newton-like minimal residual methods applied to transonic flow calculations

A computational technique for the solution of the full potential equation is presented. The method consists of outer and inner iterations. The outer iterate is based on a Newton like algorithm, and a preconditioned Minimal Residual method is used to seek an approximate solution of the system of linear equations arising at each inner iterate. The present iterative scheme is formulated so that the uncertainties and difficulties associated with many iterative techniques, namely the requirements of acceleration parameters and the treatment of additional boundary conditions for the intermediate variables, are eliminated. Numerical experiments based on the new method for transonic potential flows around the NACA 0012 airfoil at different Mach numbers and different angles of attack are presented, and these results are compared with those obtained by the Approximate Factorization technique. Extention to three dimensional flow calculations and application in finite element methods for fluid dynamics problems by the present method are also discussed. The Inexact Newton like method produces a smoother reduction in the residual norm, and the number of supersonic points and circulations are rapidly established as the number of iterations is increased.

Wong, Y. S.↗

Olivine in Martian Meteorite Allan Hills 84001: Evidence for a High-Temperature Origin and Implications for Signs of Life

Olivine from Martian meteorite Allan Hills (ALH) 84001 occurs as clusters within orthopyroxene adjacent to fractures containing disrupted carbonate globules and feldspathic shock glass. The inclusions are irregular in shape and range in size from approx. 40 microns to submicrometer. Some of the inclusions are elongate and boudinage-like. The olivine grains are in sharp contact with the enclosing orthopyroxene and often contain small inclusions of chromite The olivine exhibits a very limited range of composition from Fo(sub 65) to Fo(sub 66) (n = 25). The delta(sup 18)O values of the olivine and orthopyroxene analyzed by ion microprobe range from +4.3 to +5.3% and are indistinguishable from each other within analytical uncertainty. The mineral chemistries, O-isotopic data, and textural relationships indicate that the olivine inclusions were produced at a temperature greater than 800 C. It is unlikely that the olivines formed during the same event that gave rise to the carbonates in ALH 84001, which have more elevated and variable delta(sup 18)O values, and were probably formed from fluids that were not in isotopic equilibrium with the orthopyroxene or olivine The reactions most likely instrumental in the formation of olivine could be either the dehydration of hydrous silicates that formed during carbonate precipitation or the reduction of orthopyroxene and spinel If the olivine was formed by either reaction during a postcarbonate beating event, the implications are profound with regards to the interpretations of McKay et al. Due to the low diffusion rates in carbonates, this rapid, high-temperature event would have resulted in the preservation of the fine-scale carbonate zoning' while partially devolatilizing select carbonate compositions on a submicrometer scale. This may have resulted in the formation of the minute magnetite grains that McKay et al attributed to biogenic activity.

Shearer, C. K.↗

Decentralized Control of Sound Radiation from an Aircraft-Style Panel Using Iterative Loop Recovery

A decentralized LQG-based control strategy is designed to reduce low-frequency sound transmission through periodically stiffened panels. While modern control strategies have been used to reduce sound radiation from relatively simple structural acoustic systems, significant implementation issues have to be addressed before these control strategies can be extended to large systems such as the fuselage of an aircraft. For instance, centralized approaches typically require a high level of connectivity and are computationally intensive, while decentralized strategies face stability problems caused by the unmodeled interaction between neighboring control units. Since accurate uncertainty bounds are not known a priori, it is difficult to ensure the decentralized control system will be robust without making the controller overly conservative. Therefore an iterative approach is suggested, which utilizes frequency-shaped loop recovery. The approach accounts for modeling error introduced by neighboring control loops, requires no communication between subsystems, and is relatively simple. The control strategy is validated using real-time control experiments performed on a built-up aluminum test structure representative of the fuselage of an aircraft. Experiments demonstrate that the iterative approach is capable of achieving 12 dB peak reductions and a 3.6 dB integrated reduction in radiated sound power from the stiffened panel.

Schiller, Noah H.↗

Pixel-Level Calibration in the Kepler Science Operations Center Pipeline

We present an overview of the pixel-level calibration of flight data from the Kepler Mission performed within the Kepler Science Operations Center Science Processing Pipeline. This article describes the calibration (CAL) module, which operates on original spacecraft data to remove instrument effects and other artifacts that pollute the data. Traditional CCD data reduction is performed (removal of instrument/detector effects such as bias and dark current), in addition to pixel-level calibration (correcting for cosmic rays and variations in pixel sensitivity), Kepler-specific corrections (removing smear signals which result from the lack of a shutter on the photometer and correcting for distortions induced by the readout electronics), and additional operations that are needed due to the complexity and large volume of flight data. CAL operates on long (~30 min) and short (~1 min) sampled data, as well as full-frame images, and produces calibrated pixel flux time series, uncertainties, and other metrics that are used in subsequent Pipeline modules. The raw and calibrated data are also archived in the Multi-mission Archive at Space Telescope at the Space Telescope Science Institute for use by the astronomical community.

Calibration↗

Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate: results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4)

The modeling of paleoclimate, using physically based tools, is increasingly seen as a strong out-of-sample test of the models that are used for the projection of future climate changes. New to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) is the Tier 1 Last Interglacial experiment for 127 000 years ago (lig127k), designed to address the climate responses to stronger orbital forcing than the midHolocene experiment, using the same state-of-the-art models as for the future and following a common experimental protocol. Here we present a first analysis of a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, all of which have completed the CMIP6 DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) experiments. The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of these models varies from 1.8 to 5.6°C. The seasonal character of the insolation anomalies results in strong summer warming over the Northern Hemisphere continents in the lig127k ensemble as compared to the CMIP6 piControl and much-reduced minimum sea ice in the Arctic. The multi-model results indicate enhanced summer monsoonal precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere and reductions in the Southern Hemisphere. These responses are greater in the lig127k than the CMIP6 midHolocene simulations as expected from the larger insolation anomalies at 127 than 6 ka. New synthesis for surface temperature and precipitation, targeted for 127 ka, have been developed for comparison to the multi-model ensemble. The lig127k model ensemble and data reconstructions are in good agreement for summer temperature anomalies over Canada, Scandinavia, and the North Atlantic and for precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere continents. The model–data comparisons and mismatches point to further study of the sensitivity of the simulations to uncertainties in the boundary conditions and of the uncertainties and sparse coverage in current proxy reconstructions. The CMIP6–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) lig127k simulations, in combination with the proxy record, improve our confidence in future projections of monsoons, surface temperature, and Arctic sea ice, thus providing a key target for model evaluation and optimization.

Last Interglacial climate↗

Linear Quadratic Tracking Design for a Generic Transport Aircraft with Structural Load Constraints

When designing control laws for systems with constraints added to the tracking performance, control allocation methods can be utilized. Control allocations methods are used when there are more command inputs than controlled variables. Constraints that require allocators are such task as; surface saturation limits, structural load limits, drag reduction constraints or actuator failures. Most transport aircraft have many actuated surfaces compared to the three controlled variables (such as angle of attack, roll rate & angle of side slip). To distribute the control effort among the redundant set of actuators a fixed mixer approach can be utilized or online control allocation techniques. The benefit of an online allocator is that constraints can be considered in the design whereas the fixed mixer cannot. However, an online control allocator mixer has a disadvantage of not guaranteeing a surface schedule, which can then produce ill defined loads on the aircraft. The load uncertainty and complexity has prevented some controller designs from using advanced allocation techniques. This paper considers actuator redundancy management for a class of over actuated systems with real-time structural load limits using linear quadratic tracking applied to the generic transport model. A roll maneuver example of an artificial load limit constraint is shown and compared to the same no load limitation maneuver.

Burken, John J.↗

Medical Countermeasure Requirements for Meeting Permissible Radiation Exposure Limits in Space

The space radiation environment consists of ionizing radiation that poses healthrisks to crew members who embark on a mission to Mars. NASA requiresthat astronaut career radiation limits for the Risk of Exposure Induced Death(REID) should not exceed 3% at the upper 95% confidence level for cancermortality. However, the lifetime career limit is likely to be exceeded for eventhe shortest round-trip mission scenario to Mars. As such, approaches fordirectly reducing the radiation risk, despite the large uncertainties, are beinginvestigated. A recent study showed that medical countermeasures (MCM)which reduced background cancer mortality rates may be effective in mitigatingthe REID, where the data employed in the sensitivity analysis were limited tocohort studies of aspirin and warfarin. The present work addresses the generalMCM requirements that are needed to meet the lifetime career exposure limitsby examining modifications to the background cancer mortality rates, radiationquality factor, and low-LET radiation risk models for a Mars mission scenario.These results may be used to help inform decision-makers about potentialexperimental measurements that facilitate the greatest propensity for MCM risk reduction.

Charles M Werneth↗

Development of a Wake Vortex Spacing System for Airport Capacity Enhancement and Delay Reduction

The Terminal Area Productivity project has developed the technologies required (weather measurement, wake prediction, and wake measurement) to determine the aircraft spacing needed to prevent wake vortex encounters in various weather conditions. The system performs weather measurements, predicts bounds on wake vortex behavior in those conditions, derives safe wake spacing criteria, and validates the wake predictions with wake vortex measurements. System performance to date indicates that the potential runway arrival rate increase with Aircraft VOrtex Spacing System (AVOSS), considering common path effects and ATC delivery variance, is 5% to 12% depending on the ratio of large and heavy aircraft. The concept demonstration system, using early generation algorithms and minimal optimization, is performing the wake predictions with adequate robustness such that only 4 hard exceedances have been observed in 1235 wake validation cases. This performance demonstrates the feasibility of predicting wake behavior bounds with multiple uncertainties present, including the unknown aircraft weight and speed, weather persistence between the wake prediction and the observations, and the location of the weather sensors several kilometers from the approach location. A concept for the use of the AVOSS system for parallel runway operations has been suggested, and an initial study at the JFK International Airport suggests that a simplified AVOSS system can be successfully operated using only a single lidar as both the weather sensor and the wake validation instrument. Such a selfcontained AVOSS would be suitable for wake separation close to the airport, as is required for parallel approach concepts such as SOIA.

Hinton, David A.↗

Effect of pressure on a burning solid in low-gravity

Venting, or depressurization, has been discussed as a possible technique for extinguishing fires on aircraft and spacecraft. Fire suppression plans for the International Space Station Alpha (ISSA) discuss the use of depressurization as a method for extinguishing fires. In the case of an uncontrollable fire, the affected compartment would be vented from an initial pressure of 1.0 atm (14.7 psia) to a final pressure 0.33 atm (4.8 psia) within 10 minutes. However, the lack of low pressure flammability data for solid materials in a low-gravity environment presents an uncertainty for the use of the venting technique. There are also transient effects that need to be considered. It is possible that the flows induced by the venting could intensify the fire. This occurred during flammability tests conducted on board Skylab. In addition, the extinction pressure could be a function of the depressurization rate. Studies conducted with solid propellants have shown that if the pressure is reduced quickly enough, the pressure at extinction will be greater than the steady-state extinction limit. This project, which was started in 1992, is examining both the quasi steady-state and transient effects of pressure reduction on a burning solid in low-gravity. This research will provide low-g extinguishment data upon which policies and practices can be formulated for fire safety in orbiting spacecraft.

Goldmeer, Jeffrey S.↗