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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

STAT7 v2.0 Verification and Validation Report

This report documents the software testing which has been performed for STAT7 Version 2.0 (hereafter STAT7 v2.0), a code for the statistical propagation of uncertainties in steady-state thermal hydraulics (TH) analysis of plate-fueled research and test reactors. The key capabilities addressed in this testing were selected based on the use of the software for analysis work supporting the conversion to low-enriched uranium fuel of U.S. High-Performance Research Reactors (USHPRR) such as the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Research Reactor (MITR-II). This testing scope includes comparison of the code’s statistical processing capabilities using statistical tests, comparison of coolant property evaluations to NIST data tables, and systematic comparison of key TH solver capabilities to the results of hand calculations and to predictions from PLTEMP/ANL Version 4.4. The

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

symfind : Addressing the Fragility of Subhalo Finders and Revealing the Durability of Subhalos

Abstract A major question in ΛCDM is what this theory actually predicts for the properties of subhalo populations. Subhalos are difficult to accurately simulate and to find within simulations, and this propagates into uncertainty in theoretical predictions for satellite galaxies. We present Symfind , a new particle-tracking-based subhalo finder, and demonstrate that it can track subhalos to orders-of-magnitude lower masses than commonly used halo-finding tools, with a focus on Rockstar and consistent-trees . These longer survival times mean that at a fixed peak subhalo mass, we find ≈ 15%–40% more subhalos within the virial radius, R vir , and ≈35%–120% more subhalos within R vir /4 in the Symphony dark-matter-only simulation suite. More subhalos are found as the resolution is increased, in contrast to the Rockstar halo finder, which appears to be converged at smaller subhalo counts. We perform extensive numerical testing. In agreement with idealized simulations, we show that the v max , the maximum circular velocity, is systematically biased low until high resolutions ( n peak ≳ 3 × 10 4 ) are achieved, but that mass loss itself can be resolved at much more modest resolutions ( n peak ≳ 4 × 10 3 ). We show that Rockstar converges to false solutions for the mass function, radial distribution, and disruption masses of subhalos. We argue that our new method can trace resolved subhalos until the point of typical galaxy disruption without invoking post hoc orphan modeling. We outline a concrete set of steps for determining whether other subhalo finders meet the same criteria. We publicly release Symfind catalogs and particle data for the Symphony simulation suite at http://web.stanford.edu/group/gfc/symphony .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Binning is Sinning (Supernova Version): The Impact of Self-calibration in Cosmological Analyses with Type Ia Supernovae

Recent cosmological analyses (e.g., JLA, Pantheon) of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) have propagated systematic uncertainties into a covariance matrix and either binned or smoothed the systematic uncertainty vectors in redshift space. We demonstrate that systematic error budgets of these analyses can be improved by a factor of ~ 1.5 × with the use of unbinned and unsmoothed covariance matrices. To understand this, we employ a separate approach that simultaneously fits for cosmological parameters and additional self-calibrating scale parameters that constrain the size of each systematic. We show that the covariance-matrix approach and scale-parameter approach indeed yield equivalent results, implying that in both cases the data can self-calibrate certain systematic uncertainties, but that this ability is hindered when information is binned or smoothed in redshift space. We review the top systematic uncertainties in current analyses and find that the reduction of systematic uncertainties in the unbinned case depends on whether a systematic is solely degenerate with the cosmological model in redshift space or whether it can be described by additional correlations between supernova properties and luminosity. Furthermore, we show that the power of self-calibration increases with the size of the data set, which presents a tremendous opportunity for upcoming analyses of photometrically classified samples, like those of Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) and the Nancy Grace Roman Telescope (NGRST). However, to take advantage of self-calibration in large, photometrically classified samples, we must first address the issue that binning is required in currently used photometric analysis methods.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1992

ASpect: A new spectrum and line analysis package for IRAF

We examined several publicly available spectral analysis software packages looking for one with enough functionality and versatility to meet the analysis needs of astronomers during the next decade. None of those examined can satisfactorily support the wide variety of panchromatic science programs that are now becoming possible. Furthermore, we concluded that none of these packages can be simply modified to include critical functions because of their original (limited) designs. During the next two years we will write a new spectral analysis package, ASpect, that will incorporate the latest analysis techniques for astronomical spectra in all wavelength domains. The ASpect package has several functional requirements. It must operate on spectra from a wide variety of ground-based and space-based instruments spanning wavelengths from radio to gamma rays. It must accommodate non-linear dispersion relations. It must provide a variety of functions, individually or in combination, with which to fit spectral features and the continuum. It is vitally important that known bad data be masked and that, uncertainties be propagated throughout the calculations in order for astronomers to evaluate the reliability of results. Finally, this new package must provide a powerful, intuitive graphical user interface to handle the burden of data input/output (I/O), on-line 'help,' selection of relevant features for analysis, plotting and graphical interaction, and data base management--all in a comprehensible environment. We anticipate that ASpect will take the form of an external package in IRAF (such as the NOAO and STSDAS packages) and will be layered upon the IRAF virtual Operating System to make it available on as many platforms as possible, while making it resistant to changes in operating systems and compilers. Our choice of IRAF is motivated by its portability, its wide use within the astronomical community, and its rich set of existing user applications.

Hulbert, S. J.↗
NASA NTRS1994

First Order Reliability Application and Verification Methods for Semistatic Structures

Escalating risks of aerostructures stimulated by increasing size, complexity, and cost should no longer be ignored by conventional deterministic safety design methods. The deterministic pass-fail concept is incompatible with probability and risk assessments, its stress audits are shown to be arbitrary and incomplete, and it compromises high strength materials performance. A reliability method is proposed which combines first order reliability principles with deterministic design variables and conventional test technique to surmount current deterministic stress design and audit deficiencies. Accumulative and propagation design uncertainty errors are defined and appropriately implemented into the classical safety index expression. The application is reduced to solving for a factor that satisfies the specified reliability and compensates for uncertainty errors, and then using this factor as, and instead of, the conventional safety factor in stress analyses. The resulting method is consistent with current analytical skills and verification practices, the culture of most designers, and with the pace of semistatic structural designs.

Verderaime, Vincent↗
NASA NTRS2004

Characterization and Uncertainty Analysis of a Reference Pressure Measurement System for Wind Tunnels

This paper presents the calibration results and uncertainty analysis of a high-precision reference pressure measurement system currently used in wind tunnels at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC). Sensors, calibration standards, and measurement instruments are subject to errors due to aging, drift with time, environment effects, transportation, the mathematical model, the calibration experimental design, and other factors. Errors occur at every link in the chain of measurements and data reduction from the sensor to the final computed results. At each link of the chain, bias and precision uncertainties must be separately estimated for facility use, and are combined to produce overall calibration and prediction confidence intervals for the instrument, typically at a 95% confidence level. The uncertainty analysis and calibration experimental designs used herein, based on techniques developed at LaRC, employ replicated experimental designs for efficiency, separate estimation of bias and precision uncertainties, and detection of significant parameter drift with time. Final results, including calibration confidence intervals and prediction intervals given as functions of the applied inputs, not as a fixed percentage of the full-scale value are presented. System uncertainties are propagated beginning with the initial reference pressure standard, to the calibrated instrument as a working standard in the facility. Among the several parameters that can affect the overall results are operating temperature, atmospheric pressure, humidity, and facility vibration. Effects of factors such as initial zeroing and temperature are investigated. The effects of the identified parameters on system performance and accuracy are discussed.

Amer, Tahani↗
NASA NTRS2007

Reactive Nitrogen Distribution and Partitioning in the North American Troposphere and Lowermost Stratosphere

A comprehensive group of reactive nitrogen species (NO, NO2, HNO3, HO2NO2, PANs, alkyl nitrates, and aerosol-NO3) were measured in the troposphere and lowermost stratosphere over North America and the Atlantic during July/August 2004 (INTEX-A) from the NASA DC-8 platform (0.1-12 km). Less reactive nitrogen species (HCN and CH3CN), that are also unique tracers of biomass combustion, were also measured along with a host of other gaseous (CO, VOC, OVOC, halocarbon) and aerosol tracers. Clean background air as well as air with influences from biogenic emissions, anthropogenic pollution, biomass combustion, and stratosphere was sampled both over continental U. S., Atlantic and Pacific. The North American upper troposphere was found to be greatly influenced by both lightning NO(x) and surface pollution lofted via convection and contained elevated concentrations of PAN, ozone, hydrocarbons, and NO(x). Under polluted conditions PAN was a dominant carrier of reactive nitrogen in the upper troposphere while nitric acid dominated in the lower troposphere. Peroxynitric acid (HO2NO2) was present in sizable concentrations always peaking at around 8 km. Aerosol nitrate appeared to be mostly contained in large soil based particles in the lower troposphere. Plumes from Alaskan fires contained large amounts of PAN and very little enhancement in ozone. Observational data suggest that lightning was a far greater contributor to NO(x) in the upper troposphere than previously believed. NO(x) and NO(y) reservoir appeared to be in steady state only in the middle troposphere where NO(x)/NO(y) was independent of air mass age. A first comparison of observed data with simulations from four 3-D models shows significant differences between observations and models as well as among models. These uncertainties likely propagate themselves in satellites derived NOx data. Observed data are interpreted to suggest that soil sinks of HCN/CH3CN are at best very small. We investigate the partitioning and interplay of the reactive nitrogen species within characteristic air masses and further examine their role in ozone formation.

Singh, H. B.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Presearch Data Conditioning in the Kepler Science Operations Center Pipeline

We describe the Presearch Data Conditioning (PDC) software component and its context in the Kepler Science Operations Center (SOC) pipeline. The primary tasks of this component are to correct systematic and other errors, remove excess flux due to aperture crowding, and condition the raw flux light curves for over 160,000 long cadence (~thirty minute) and 512 short cadence (~one minute) targets across the focal plane array. Long cadence corrected flux light curves are subjected to a transiting planet search in a subsequent pipeline module. We discuss the science algorithms for long and short cadence PDC: identification and correction of unexplained (i.e., unrelated to known anomalies) discontinuities; systematic error correction; and excess flux removal. We discuss the propagation of uncertainties from raw to corrected flux. Finally, we present examples of raw and corrected flux time series for flight data to illustrate PDC performance. Corrected flux light curves produced by PDC are exported to the Multi-mission Archive at Space Telescope [Science Institute] (MAST) and will be made available to the general public in accordance with the NASA/Kepler data release policy.

Twicken, Joseph D.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Photometric Analysis in the Kepler Science Operations Center Pipeline

We describe the Photometric Analysis (PA) software component and its context in the Kepler Science Operations Center (SOC) pipeline. The primary tasks of this module are to compute the photometric flux and photocenters (centroids) for over 160,000 long cadence (~thirty minute) and 512 short cadence (~one minute) stellar targets from the calibrated pixels in their respective apertures. We discuss the science algorithms for long and short cadence PA: cosmic ray cleaning; background estimation and removal; aperture photometry; and flux-weighted centroiding. We discuss the end-to-end propagation of uncertainties for the science algorithms. Finally, we present examples of photometric apertures, raw flux light curves, and centroid time series from Kepler flight data. PA light curves, centroid time series, and barycentric timestamp corrections are exported to the Multi-mission Archive at Space Telescope [Science Institute] (MAST) and are made available to the general public in accordance with the NASA/Kepler data release policy.

Twicken, Joseph D.↗
NASA NTRS2011

On the Use of a Range Trigger for the Mars Science Laboratory Entry Descent and Landing

In 2012, during the Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) of the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) entry vehicle, a 21.5 m Viking-heritage, Disk-Gap-Band, supersonic parachute will be deployed at approximately Mach 2. The baseline algorithm for commanding this parachute deployment is a navigated planet-relative velocity trigger. This paper compares the performance of an alternative range-to-go trigger (sometimes referred to as Smart Chute ), which can significantly reduce the landing footprint size. Numerical Monte Carlo results, predicted by the POST2 MSL POST End-to-End EDL simulation, are corroborated and explained by applying propagation of uncertainty methods to develop an analytic estimate for the standard deviation of Mach number. A negative correlation is shown to exist between the standard deviations of wind velocity and the planet-relative velocity at parachute deploy, which mitigates the Mach number rise in the case of the range trigger.

Way, David W.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Quantifying Uncertainties in Navigation and Orbit Propagation Analyses

A tool used to calculate dilution of precision (DOP) was created in order to assist the Space Communications and Navigation (SCaN) program to analyze current and future user missions. The SCaN Center for Engineering, Networks, Integration, and Communication (SCENIC) is developing a new user interface (UI) to augment and replace the capabilities of currently used commercial software, such as Systems Tool Kit (STK). The DOP tool will be integrated in the SCENIC UI and will be used to analyze the accuracy of navigation solutions. This tool was developed using MATLAB and free and open-source tools to save cost and to use already existing orbital software libraries. GPS DOP data was collected and used for validation purposes. The similarities between the DOP tool results and GPS data show that the DOP tool is performing correctly. Additional improvements can be made in the DOP tool to improve its accuracy and performance in analyzing navigation solutions.

dilution of precision↗
NASA NTRS2010

Photometric Analysis in the Kepler Science Operations Center Pipeline

We describe the Photometric Analysis (PA) software component and its context in the Kepler Science Operations Center (SOC) Science Processing Pipeline. The primary tasks of this module are to compute the photometric flux and photocenters (centroids) for over 160,000 long cadence (~thirty minute) and 512 short cadence (~one minute) stellar targets from the calibrated pixels in their respective apertures. We discuss science algorithms for long and short cadence PA: cosmic ray cleaning; background estimation and removal; aperture photometry; and flux-weighted centroiding. We discuss the end-to-end propagation of uncertainties for the science algorithms. Finally, we present examples of photometric apertures, raw flux light curves, and centroid time series from Kepler flight data. PA light curves, centroid time series, and barycentric timestamp corrections are exported to the Multi-mission Archive at Space Telescope [Science Institute] (MAST) and are made available to the general public in accordance with the NASA/Kepler data release policy.

photocenter↗
NASA NTRS2019

MultiLayer Clustered Sampling (MLCS) technique for near-earth asteroid impact hazard assessment

Because of planetary encounters, the motion of near-Earth asteroids is chaotic and small differences in the initial conditions tend to diverge exponentially. Linear approximations for propagating orbital uncertainties can lead to inaccurate estimates of the probability of an Earth collision. We present a novel fully nonlinear strategy for estimating the probability of an asteroid impact using sequential Monte Carlo layers. The method first explores a low-resolution layer to locate potentially relevant regions. Then, we conduct localized searches on deeper layers with higher resolution. The method retains the accuracy of brute-force Monte Carlo sampling while reducing the computational cost by only sampling relevant regions.

Farnocchia, Davide↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improving Multi-Model Trajectory Simulation Estimators using Model Selection and Tuning

Multi-model Monte Carlo methods have been demonstrated to be an efficient and accurate alternative to standard Monte Carlo (MC) in the model-based propagation of uncertainty in entry, descent, and landing (EDL) applications. These multi-model MC methods fuse predictions from low-fidelity models with the high-fidelity EDL model of interest to produce unbiased statistics with a fraction of the computational cost. The accuracy and efficiency of the multi-model MC methods are dependent upon the magnitude of correlations of the low-fidelity models with the high-fidelity model, but also upon the correlation amongst the low-fidelity models, and their relative computational cost. Because of this layer of complexity, the question of how to optimally select the set of low-fidelity models has remained open. In this work, methods for optimal model construction and tuning are investigated as a means to increase the speed and precision of trajectory simulation for EDL. Specifically, the focus is on the inclusion of low-fidelity model tuning within the sample allocation optimization that accompanies multi-model MC methods. Preliminary results indicate that low-fidelity model tuning can significantly improve efficiency and precision of trajectory simulations and provide an increased edge to multi-model MC methods when compared to standard MC. The challenges and potential benefits to exploring a fully iterative and comprehensive optimization strategy in future work are highlighted.

uncertainty quantification↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improving Multi-Model Trajectory Simulation Estimators using Model Selection and Tuning

Multi-model Monte Carlo methods have been demonstrated to be an efficient and accurate alternative to standard Monte Carlo (MC) in the model-based propagation of uncertainty in entry, descent, and landing (EDL) applications. These multi-model MC methods fuse predictions from low-fidelity models with the high-fidelity EDL model of interest to produce unbiased statistics with a fraction of the computational cost. The accuracy and efficiency of the multi-model MC methods are dependent upon the magnitude of correlations of the low-fidelity models with the high-fidelity model, but also upon the correlation among the low-fidelity models, and their relative computational cost. Because of this layer of complexity, the question of how to optimally select the set of low-fidelity models has remained open. In this work, methods for optimal model construction and tuning are investigated as a means to increase the speed and precision of trajectory simulation for EDL. Specifically, the focus is on the inclusion of low-fidelity model tuning within the sample allocation optimization that accompanies multi-model MC methods. Preliminary results indicate that low-fidelity model tuning can significantly improve efficiency and precision of trajectory simulations and provide an increased edge to multi-model MC methods when compared to standard MC. The challenges and potential benefits to exploring a fully iterative and comprehensive optimization strategy in future work are highlighted.

uncertainty quantification↗
DOE OSTI2020

BeyondPlanck I. Global Bayesian analysis of the Planck Low Frequency Instrument data

We describe the BeyondPlanck project in terms of motivation, methodology and main products, and provide a guide to a set of companion papers that describe each result in fuller detail. Building directly on experience from ESA's Planck mission, we implement a complete end-to-end Bayesian analysis framework for the Planck Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) observations. The primary product is a joint posterior distribution P(omega|d), where omega represents the set of all free instrumental (gain, correlated noise, bandpass etc.), astrophysical (synchrotron, free-free, thermal dust emission etc.), and cosmological (CMB map, power spectrum etc.) parameters. Some notable advantages of this approach are seamless end-to-end propagation of uncertainties; accurate modeling of both astrophysical and instrumental effects in the most natural basis for each uncertain quantity; optimized computational costs with little or no need for intermediate human interaction between various analysis steps; and a complete overview of the entire analysis process within one single framework. As a practical demonstration of this framework, we focus in particular on low-l CMB polarization reconstruction, paying special attention to the LFI 44 GHz channel. We find evidence of significant residual systematic effects that are still not accounted for in the current processing, but must be addressed in future work. These include a break-down of the 1/f correlated noise model at 30 and 44 GHz, and scan-aligned stripes in the Southern Galactic hemisphere at 44 GHz. On the Northern hemisphere, however, we find that all results are consistent with the LCDM model, and we constrain the reionization optical depth to tau = 0.067 +/- 0.016, with a low-resolution chi-squared probability-to-exceed of 16%. The marginal CMB dipole amplitude is 3359.5 +/- 1.9 uK. (Abridged.)

Andersen, KJ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dark Energy Survey Year 6 Results: Redshift Calibration of the MagLim++ Lens Sample

In this work, we derive and calibrate the redshift distribution of the MagLim++ lens galaxy sample used in the Dark Energy Survey Year 6 (DES Y6) 3x2pt cosmology analysis. The 3x2pt analysis combines galaxy clustering from the lens galaxy sample and weak gravitational lensing. The redshift distributions are inferred using the SOMPZ method - a Self-Organizing Map framework that combines deep-field multi-band photometry, wide-field data, and a synthetic source injection (Balrog) catalog. Key improvements over the DES Year 3 (Y3) calibration include a noise-weighted SOM metric, an expanded Balrog catalogue, and an improved scheme for propagating systematic uncertainties, which allows us to generate O($10^8$) redshift realizations that collectively span the dominant sources of uncertainty. These realizations are then combined with independent clustering-redshift measurements via importance sampling. The resulting calibration achieves typical uncertainties on the mean redshift of 1-2%, corresponding to a 20-30% average reduction relative to DES Y3. We compress the $n(z)$ uncertainties into a small number of orthogonal modes for use in cosmological inference. Marginalizing over these modes leads to only a minor degradation in cosmological constraints. This analysis establishes the MagLim++ sample as a robust lens sample for precision cosmology with DES Y6 and provides a scalable framework for future surveys.

Giannini, G. [Chicago U., Astron. Astrophys. Ctr.;↗
DOE OSTI2021

Uncertainty quantification for Multiphase-CFD simulations of bubbly flows: a machine learning-based Bayesian approach supported by high-resolution experiments

In this paper, we developed a machine learning-based Bayesian approach to inversely quantify and reduce the uncertainties of multiphase computational fluid dynamics (MCFD) simulations for bubbly flows. The proposed approach is supported by high-resolution two-phase flow measurements, including those by double-sensor conductivity probes, high-speed imaging, and particle image velocimetry. Local distributions of key physical quantities of interest (QoIs), including the void fraction and phasic velocities, are obtained to support the Bayesian inference. In the process, the epistemic uncertainties of the closure relations are inversely quantified while the aleatory uncertainties from stochastic fluctuations of the system are evaluated based on experimental uncertainty analysis. The combined uncertainties are then propagated through the MCFD solver to obtain uncertainties of the QoIs, based on which probability-boxes are constructed for validation. The proposed approach relies on three machine learning methods: feedforward neural networks and principal component analysis for surrogate modeling, and Gaussian processes for model form uncertainty modeling. The whole process is implemented within the framework of an open-source deep learning library PyTorch with graphics processing unit (GPU) acceleration, thus ensuring the efficiency of the computation. The results demonstrate that with the support of high-resolution data, the uncertainties of MCFD simulations can be significantly reduced. The proposed approach has the potential for other applications that involve numerical models with empirical parameters.

42 ENGINEERING↗