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NASA NTRS2014

Secular Climate Change on Mars: An Update Using One Mars Year of MSL Pressure Data

The South Polar Residual Cap (SPRC) on Mars is an icy reservoir of CO2. If all the CO2 trapped in the SPRC were released to the atmosphere the mean annual global surface pressure would rise by approximately 20 Pa. Repeated MOC and HiRISE imaging of scarp retreat within the SPRC led to suggestions that the SPRC is losing mass. Estimates for the loss rate vary between 0. 5 Pa per Mars Decade to 13 Pa per Mars Decade. Assuming 80% of this loss goes directly into the atmosphere, an estimate based on some modeling (Haberle and Kahre, 2010), and that the loss is monotonic, the global annual mean surface pressure should have increased between approximately 1-20 Pa since the Viking mission (approximately 20 Mars years ago). Surface pressure measurements by the Phoenix Lander only 2.5 Mars years ago were found to be consistent with these loss rates. Last year at this meeting we compared surface pressure data from the MSL mission through sol 360 with that from Viking Lander 2 (VL-2) for the same period to determine if the trend continues. The results were ambiguous. This year we have a full Mars year of MSL data to work with. Using the Ames GCM to compensate for dynamics and environmental differences, our analysis suggests that the mean annual pressure has decreased by approximately 8 Pa since Viking. This result implies that the SPRC has gained (not lost) mass since Viking. However, the estimated uncertainties in our analysis are easily at the 10 Pa level and possibly higher. Chief among these are the hydrostatic adjustment of surface pressure from grid point elevations to actual elevations and the simulated regional environmental conditions at the lander sites. For these reasons, the most reasonable conclusion is that there is no significant difference in the size of the atmosphere between now and Viking. This implies, but does not demand, that the mass of the SPRC has not changed since Viking. Of course, year-to-year variations are possible as implied by the Phoenix data. Given that there has been no unusual behavior in the climate system as observed by a variety of spacecraft at Mars since Phoenix, its seems more likely that the Phoenix data simply did not have a long enough record to accurately determine annual mean pressure changes as Haberle and Kahre (2010) cautioned. In the absence of a strong signal in the MSL data, we conclude that if the SPRC is loosing mass it is not going into the atmosphere reservoir.

Phoenix data↗
NASA NTRS1991

Robust control of systems with real parameter uncertainty and unmodelled dynamics

During this research period we have made significant progress in the four proposed areas: (1) design of robust controllers via H infinity optimization; (2) design of robust controllers via mixed H2/H infinity optimization; (3) M-delta structure and robust stability analysis for structured uncertainties; and (4) a study on controllability and observability of perturbed plant. It is well known now that the two-Riccati-equation solution to the H infinity control problem can be used to characterize all possible stabilizing optimal or suboptimal H infinity controllers if the optimal H infinity norm or gamma, an upper bound of a suboptimal H infinity norm, is given. In this research, we discovered some useful properties of these H infinity Riccati solutions. Among them, the most prominent one is that the spectral radius of the product of these two Riccati solutions is a continuous, nonincreasing, convex function of gamma in the domain of interest. Based on these properties, quadratically convergent algorithms are developed to compute the optimal H infinity norm. We also set up a detailed procedure for applying the H infinity theory to robust control systems design. The desire to design controllers with H infinity robustness but H(exp 2) performance has recently resulted in mixed H(exp 2) and H infinity control problem formulation. The mixed H(exp 2)/H infinity problem have drawn the attention of many investigators. However, solution is only available for special cases of this problem. We formulated a relatively realistic control problem with H(exp 2) performance index and H infinity robustness constraint into a more general mixed H(exp 2)/H infinity problem. No optimal solution yet is available for this more general mixed H(exp 2)/H infinity problem. Although the optimal solution for this mixed H(exp 2)/H infinity control has not yet been found, we proposed a design approach which can be used through proper choice of the available design parameters to influence both robustness and performance. For a large class of linear time-invariant systems with real parametric perturbations, the coefficient vector of the characteristic polynomial is a multilinear function of the real parameter vector. Based on this multilinear mapping relationship together with the recent developments for polytopic polynomials and parameter domain partition technique, we proposed an iterative algorithm for coupling the real structured singular value.

Chang, Bor-Chin↗
NASA NTRS1991

Statistics of gravitational lenses - The uncertainties

The assumptions in the analysis of gravitational lensing statistics are examined. Special emphasis is given to the uncertainties in the theoretical predictions. It is shown that a simple redshift cutoff model, which may result from galaxy evolution, can significantly reduce the lensing probability and explain the large mean separation of images in observed gravitational lenses. This effect may affect the constraint on the contribution of the cosmological constant to producing a flat universe from the number counts of the observed lenses. For the Omega(0) = 1 (filled beam) model, the lensing probability of early-type galaxies with finite core radii is reduced roughly by a factor of 2 for high-redshift quasars as compared with the corresponding singular isothermal sphere model. The finite core radius effect is about 20 percent for a lambda-dominated flat universe. It is also shown that the most recent galaxy luminosity function gives lensing probabilities that are smaller than previously estimated roughly by a factor of 3.

Mao, Shude↗
NASA NTRS2012

Technical Evaluation of the NASA Model for Cancer Risk to Astronauts Due to Space Radiation

At the request of NASA, the National Research Council's (NRC's) Committee for Evaluation of Space Radiation Cancer Risk Model1 reviewed a number of changes that NASA proposes to make to its model for estimating the risk of radiation-induced cancer in astronauts. The NASA model in current use was last updated in 2005, and the proposed model would incorporate recent research directed at improving the quantification and understanding of the health risks posed by the space radiation environment. NASA's proposed model is defined by the 2011 NASA report Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections and Uncertainties--2010 . The committee's evaluation is based primarily on this source, which is referred to hereafter as the 2011 NASA report, with mention of specific sections or tables. The overall process for estimating cancer risks due to low linear energy transfer (LET) radiation exposure has been fully described in reports by a number of organizations. The approaches described in the reports from all of these expert groups are quite similar. NASA's proposed space radiation cancer risk assessment model calculates, as its main output, age- and gender-specific risk of exposure-induced death (REID) for use in the estimation of mission and astronaut-specific cancer risk. The model also calculates the associated uncertainties in REID. The general approach for estimating risk and uncertainty in the proposed model is broadly similar to that used for the current (2005) NASA model and is based on recommendations by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements. However, NASA's proposed model has significant changes with respect to the following: the integration of new findings and methods into its components by taking into account newer epidemiological data and analyses, new radiobiological data indicating that quality factors differ for leukemia and solid cancers, an improved method for specifying quality factors in terms of radiation track structure concepts as opposed to the previous approach based on linear energy transfer, the development of a new solar particle event (SPE) model, and the updates to galactic cosmic ray (GCR) and shielding transport models. The newer epidemiological information includes updates to the cancer incidence rates from the life span study (LSS) of the Japanese atomic bomb survivors, transferred to the U.S. population and converted to cancer mortality rates from U.S. population statistics. In addition, the proposed model provides an alternative analysis applicable to lifetime never-smokers (NSs). Details of the uncertainty analysis in the model have also been updated and revised. NASA's proposed model and associated uncertainties are complex in their formulation and as such require a very clear and precise set of descriptions. The committee found the 2011 NASA report challenging to review largely because of the lack of clarity in the model descriptions and derivation of the various parameters used. The committee requested some clarifications from NASA throughout its review and was able to resolve many, but not all, of the ambiguities in the written description.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2012

Technical Evaluation of the NASA Model for Cancer Risk to Astronauts Due to Space Radiation

At the request of NASA, the National Research Council's (NRC's) Committee for Evaluation of Space Radiation Cancer Risk Model reviewed a number of changes that NASA proposes to make to its model for estimating the risk of radiation-induced cancer in astronauts. The NASA model in current use was last updated in 2005, and the proposed model would incorporate recent research directed at improving the quantification and understanding of the health risks posed by the space radiation environment. NASA's proposed model is defined by the 2011 NASA report Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections and Uncertainties 2010 (Cucinotta et al., 2011). The committee's evaluation is based primarily on this source, which is referred to hereafter as the 2011 NASA report, with mention of specific sections or tables cited more formally as Cucinotta et al. (2011). The overall process for estimating cancer risks due to low linear energy transfer (LET) radiation exposure has been fully described in reports by a number of organizations. They include, more recently: (1) The "BEIR VII Phase 2" report from the NRC's Committee on Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) (NRC, 2006); (2) Studies of Radiation and Cancer from the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR, 2006), (3) The 2007 Recommendations of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP), ICRP Publication 103 (ICRP, 2007); and (4) The Environmental Protection Agency s (EPA s) report EPA Radiogenic Cancer Risk Models and Projections for the U.S. Population (EPA, 2011). The approaches described in the reports from all of these expert groups are quite similar. NASA's proposed space radiation cancer risk assessment model calculates, as its main output, age- and gender-specific risk of exposure-induced death (REID) for use in the estimation of mission and astronaut-specific cancer risk. The model also calculates the associated uncertainties in REID. The general approach for estimating risk and uncertainty in the proposed model is broadly similar to that used for the current (2005) NASA model and is based on recommendations by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP, 2000, 2006). However, NASA's proposed model has significant changes with respect to the following: the integration of new findings and methods into its components by taking into account newer epidemiological data and analyses, new radiobiological data indicating that quality factors differ for leukemia and solid cancers, an improved method for specifying quality factors in terms of radiation track structure concepts as opposed to the previous approach based on linear energy transfer, the development of a new solar particle event (SPE) model, and the updates to galactic cosmic ray (GCR) and shielding transport models. The newer epidemiological information includes updates to the cancer incidence rates from the life span study (LSS) of the Japanese atomic bomb survivors (Preston et al., 2007), transferred to the U.S. population and converted to cancer mortality rates from U.S. population statistics. In addition, the proposed model provides an alternative analysis applicable to lifetime never-smokers (NSs). Details of the uncertainty analysis in the model have also been updated and revised. NASA's proposed model and associated uncertainties are complex in their formulation and as such require a very clear and precise set of descriptions. The committee found the 2011 NASA report challenging to review largely because of the lack of clarity in the model descriptions and derivation of the various parameters used. The committee requested some clarifications from NASA throughout its review and was able to resolve many, but not all, of the ambiguities in the written description.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2011

NASA System Safety Handbook: System Safety Framework and Concepts for Implementation - Volume 1

System safety assessment is defined in NPR 8715.3C, NASA General Safety Program Requirements as a disciplined, systematic approach to the analysis of risks resulting from hazards that can affect humans, the environment, and mission assets. Achievement of the highest practicable degree of system safety is one of NASA's highest priorities. Traditionally, system safety assessment at NASA and elsewhere has focused on the application of a set of safety analysis tools to identify safety risks and formulate effective controls.1 Familiar tools used for this purpose include various forms of hazard analyses, failure modes and effects analyses, and probabilistic safety assessment (commonly also referred to as probabilistic risk assessment (PRA)). In the past, it has been assumed that to show that a system is safe, it is sufficient to provide assurance that the process for identifying the hazards has been as comprehensive as possible and that each identified hazard has one or more associated controls. The NASA Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (ASAP) has made several statements in its annual reports supporting a more holistic approach. In 2006, it recommended that "... a comprehensive risk assessment, communication and acceptance process be implemented to ensure that overall launch risk is considered in an integrated and consistent manner." In 2009, it advocated for "... a process for using a risk-informed design approach to produce a design that is optimally and sufficiently safe." As a rationale for the latter advocacy, it stated that "... the ASAP applauds switching to a performance-based approach because it emphasizes early risk identification to guide designs, thus enabling creative design approaches that might be more efficient, safer, or both." For purposes of this preface, it is worth mentioning three areas where the handbook emphasizes a more holistic type of thinking. First, the handbook takes the position that it is important to not just focus on risk on an individual basis but to consider measures of aggregate safety risk and to ensure wherever possible that there be quantitative measures for evaluating how effective the controls are in reducing these aggregate risks. The term aggregate risk, when used in this handbook, refers to the accumulation of risks from individual scenarios that lead to a shortfall in safety performance at a high level: e.g., an excessively high probability of loss of crew, loss of mission, planetary contamination, etc. Without aggregated quantitative measures such as these, it is not reasonable to expect that safety has been optimized with respect to other technical and programmatic objectives. At the same time, it is fully recognized that not all sources of risk are amenable to precise quantitative analysis and that the use of qualitative approaches and bounding estimates may be appropriate for those risk sources. Second, the handbook stresses the necessity of developing confidence that the controls derived for the purpose of achieving system safety not only handle risks that have been identified and properly characterized but also provide a general, more holistic means for protecting against unidentified or uncharacterized risks. For example, while it is not possible to be assured that all credible causes of risk have been identified, there are defenses that can provide protection against broad categories of risks and thereby increase the chances that individual causes are contained. Third, the handbook strives at all times to treat uncertainties as an integral aspect of risk and as a part of making decisions. The term "uncertainty" here does not refer to an actuarial type of data analysis, but rather to a characterization of our state of knowledge regarding results from logical and physical models that approximate reality. Uncertainty analysis finds how the output parameters of the models are related to plausible variations in the input parameters and in the modeling assumptions. The evaluation of unrtainties represents a method of probabilistic thinking wherein the analyst and decision makers recognize possible outcomes other than the outcome perceived to be "most likely." Without this type of analysis, it is not possible to determine the worth of an analysis product as a basis for making decisions related to safety and mission success. In line with these considerations the handbook does not take a hazard-analysis-centric approach to system safety. Hazard analysis remains a useful tool to facilitate brainstorming but does not substitute for a more holistic approach geared to a comprehensive identification and understanding of individual risk issues and their contributions to aggregate safety risks. The handbook strives to emphasize the importance of identifying the most critical scenarios that contribute to the risk of not meeting the agreed-upon safety objectives and requirements using all appropriate tools (including but not limited to hazard analysis). Thereafter, emphasis shifts to identifying the risk drivers that cause these scenarios to be critical and ensuring that there are controls directed toward preventing or mitigating the risk drivers. To address these and other areas, the handbook advocates a proactive, analytic-deliberative, risk-informed approach to system safety, enabling the integration of system safety activities with systems engineering and risk management processes. It emphasizes how one can systematically provide the necessary evidence to substantiate the claim that a system is safe to within an acceptable risk tolerance, and that safety has been achieved in a cost-effective manner. The methodology discussed in this handbook is part of a systems engineering process and is intended to be integral to the system safety practices being conducted by the NASA safety and mission assurance and systems engineering organizations. The handbook posits that to conclude that a system is adequately safe, it is necessary to consider a set of safety claims that derive from the safety objectives of the organization. The safety claims are developed from a hierarchy of safety objectives and are therefore hierarchical themselves. Assurance that all the claims are true within acceptable risk tolerance limits implies that all of the safety objectives have been satisfied, and therefore that the system is safe. The acceptable risk tolerance limits are provided by the authority who must make the decision whether or not to proceed to the next step in the life cycle. These tolerances are therefore referred to as the decision maker's risk tolerances. In general, the safety claims address two fundamental facets of safety: 1) whether required safety thresholds or goals have been achieved, and 2) whether the safety risk is as low as possible within reasonable impacts on cost, schedule, and performance. The latter facet includes consideration of controls that are collective in nature (i.e., apply generically to broad categories of risks) and thereby provide protection against unidentified or uncharacterized risks.

Dezfuli, Homayoon↗
NASA NTRS2007

Automatic Conversion of Conceptual Geometry to CFD Geometry for Aircraft Design

Conceptual aircraft design is usually based on simple analysis codes. Its objective is to provide an overall system performance of the developed concept, while preliminary aircraft design uses high-fidelity analysis tools such as computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis codes or finite element structural analysis codes. In some applications, such as low-boom supersonic concept development, it is important to be able to explore a variety of drastically different configurations while using CFD analysis to check whether a given configuration can be tailored to have a low-boom ground signature. It poses an extremely challenging problem of integrating CFD analysis in conceptual design. This presentation will discuss a computer code, called iPatch, for automatic conversion of conceptual geometry to CFD geometry. In general, conceptual aircraft geometry is not as well-defined as a CAD geometry model. In particular, a conceptual aircraft geometry model usually does not define the intersection curves for the connecting surfaces. The computer code iPatch eliminates the gap between conceptual geometry and CFD geometry by accomplishing the following three tasks automatically: (1) use bicubic B-splines to extrapolate (if necessary) each surface in a conceptual geometry so that all the independently defined geometry components (such as wing and fuselage) can be intersected to form a watertight CFD geometry, (2) compute the intersection curves of surface patches at any resolution (up to 10-7 accuracy) specified by users, and (3) write the B-spline surface patches and the corresponding boundary points for the watertight CFD geometry in the format that can be directly exported to the meshing tool VGRID in the CFD software TetrUSS. As a result, conceptual designers can get quick feedback on the aerodynamic characteristics of their concepts, which will allow them to understand some subtlety in their concepts and to be able to assess their concepts with a higher degree of confidence. This integration of CFD analysis in conceptual aircraft design will greatly eliminate some uncertainty due to simple analysis codes used to develop the concepts and improve the feasibility/credibility of the final concept. The presentation will highlight the mathematical challenges of accomplishing the aforementioned three tasks and the computational algorithms used by iPatch.

Li, Wu↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Proposed Reliability-Based Damage Tolerance Guidelines for Space Systems

Deterministic damage tolerance guidelines for highly reusable and efficiently designed launch systems can be challenging to meet and result in overly conservative assessments for tightly controlled manufacturing processes. Deterministic approaches may be unconservative when the structure is workmanship sensitive and there is a wide spread in fracture properties. Reliability-based damage tolerance assessments targeting a component reliability over the service life commensurate to mission risk posture is a promising alternative. Low production rates, short fleets, and lack of standards or guidance has slowed down widespread adoption of this method. Guidance for the robust application of reliability-based damage tolerance for space systems are proposed. These guidelines cover the treatment of uncertainty in damage tolerance analysis, the collection of data to develop probabilistic distributions, uncertainty propagation methods, and types of hardware.

Reliability-Based Damage Tolerance↗
NASA NTRS2010

Multifidelity Analysis and Optimization for Supersonic Design

Supersonic aircraft design is a computationally expensive optimization problem and multifidelity approaches over a significant opportunity to reduce design time and computational cost. This report presents tools developed to improve supersonic aircraft design capabilities including: aerodynamic tools for supersonic aircraft configurations; a systematic way to manage model uncertainty; and multifidelity model management concepts that incorporate uncertainty. The aerodynamic analysis tools developed are appropriate for use in a multifidelity optimization framework, and include four analysis routines to estimate the lift and drag of a supersonic airfoil, a multifidelity supersonic drag code that estimates the drag of aircraft configurations with three different methods: an area rule method, a panel method, and an Euler solver. In addition, five multifidelity optimization methods are developed, which include local and global methods as well as gradient-based and gradient-free techniques.

Kroo, Ilan↗
NASA NTRS2024

The Economics of Farming Expansion in the Brazilian Cerrado Under Possible Effects of Climate Change

This analysis assesses the financial viability of legally investing in native Cerrado vegetation deforestation for crop production, considering climate change. The study uses data from twelve different crop models based on three different climate models to predict potential future crop yields in cleared land for growing soy and maize. The outcomes show that in many micro-regions, investments in clearing land for crop production would destroy economic value, that is, generate a negative net present value because of low/negative and volatile cashflows driven primarily by future yields as affected by climate. Our analysis was carried out based on present agricultural practices and technology. As climate changes, farmers may adapt their practices, which can lead to more resilient and productive crops, or grow different crops, which could provide better returns on investment in clearing land than the ones resulting from our analysis. Despite various uncertainties, farmers, policy makers and financial institutions should be aware of the climatic and financial risks associated with land clearing in Brazil, mainly in micro-regions in which all scenarios resulted in negative outcomes in the investment analysis.

agricultural expansion↗
NASA NTRS2010

New Evidence for a Black Hole in the Compact Binary Cygnus X-3

The bright and highly variable X-ray and radio source known as Cygnus X-3 was among the first X-ray sources discovered, yet it remains in many ways an enigma. Its known to consist of a massive. Wolf-Rayet primary in an extremely tight orbit with a compact object. Yet one of the most basic of pa.ranietern the mass of the compact object - is not known. Nor is it even clear whether its is a neutron star or a black hole. In this Paper we present our analysis of the broad-band high-energy continua covering a substantial range in luminosity and spectral morphology. We apply these results to a recently identified scaling relationship which has been demonstrated to provide reliable estimates of the compact object mass in a number of accretion powered binaries. This analysis leads us to conclude that the compact object in Cygnus X-3 has a mass greater than 4.2 solar mass thus clearly indicative of a black hole and as such resolving a longstanding issue. The full range of uncertainty in our analysis and from using a. range of recently published distance estimates constrains the compact object mass to lie between 4.2 solar mass and 14.4 solar mass. Our favored estimate, based on a 9.0 kpc distance estimate is approx. l0 solar mass, with the. error margin of 3.2 solar masses. This result may thus pose challenges to shared-envelope evolutionary models of compact binaries. as well as establishing Cygnus X-3 as the first confirmed accretion-powered galactic gamma: ray source.

Shrader, Chris R.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Aeroservoelastic Model Validation and Test Data Analysis of the F/A-18 Active Aeroelastic Wing

Model validation and flight test data analysis require careful consideration of the effects of uncertainty, noise, and nonlinearity. Uncertainty prevails in the data analysis techniques and results in a composite model uncertainty from unmodeled dynamics, assumptions and mechanics of the estimation procedures, noise, and nonlinearity. A fundamental requirement for reliable and robust model development is an attempt to account for each of these sources of error, in particular, for model validation, robust stability prediction, and flight control system development. This paper is concerned with data processing procedures for uncertainty reduction in model validation for stability estimation and nonlinear identification. F/A-18 Active Aeroelastic Wing (AAW) aircraft data is used to demonstrate signal representation effects on uncertain model development, stability estimation, and nonlinear identification. Data is decomposed using adaptive orthonormal best-basis and wavelet-basis signal decompositions for signal denoising into linear and nonlinear identification algorithms. Nonlinear identification from a wavelet-based Volterra kernel procedure is used to extract nonlinear dynamics from aeroelastic responses, and to assist model development and uncertainty reduction for model validation and stability prediction by removing a class of nonlinearity from the uncertainty.

Brenner, Martin J.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Uncertainty Management in Remote Sensing of Climate Data. Summary of A Workshop

Great advances have been made in our understanding of the climate system over the past few decades, and remotely sensed data have played a key role in supporting many of these advances. Improvements in satellites and in computational and data-handling techniques have yielded high quality, readily accessible data. However, rapid increases in data volume have also led to large and complex datasets that pose significant challenges in data analysis (NRC, 2007). Uncertainty characterization is needed for every satellite mission and scientists continue to be challenged by the need to reduce the uncertainty in remotely sensed climate records and projections. The approaches currently used to quantify the uncertainty in remotely sensed data, including statistical methods used to calibrate and validate satellite instruments, lack an overall mathematically based framework.

Remote sensing↗
NASA NTRS1979

Preliminary results of SAR soil moisture experiment, November 1975

The experiment was performed using the Environmental Research Institute of Michigan's (ERIM) dual-frequency and dual-polarization side-looking SAR system on board a C-46 aircraft. For each frequency, horizontally polarized pulses were transmitted and both horizontally and vertically polarized return signals were recorded on the signal film simultaneously. The test sites were located in St. Charles, Missouri; Centralia, Missouri; and Lafayette, Indiana. Each test site was a 4.83 km by 8.05 km (3 mile by 5 mile) rectangular strip of terrain. Concurrent with SAR overflight, ground soil samples of 0-to-2.5 cm and 0-to-15 cm layers were collected for soil moisture estimation. The surface features were also noted. Hard-copy image films and the digital data produced via optical processing of the signal films are analyzed in this report to study the relationship of radar backscatter to the moisture content and the surface roughness. Many difficulties associated with processing and analysis of the SAR imagery are noted. In particular, major uncertainty in the quantitative analysis appeared due to the difficulty of quality reproduction of digital data from the signal films.

Choudhury, B. J.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Galileo maneuver analysis

In the maneuver analysis of the Galileo spacecraft, analytic models have been developed to assess the performance of an interplanetary dual spin spacecraft. These models take into account all the important effects of dual spin and flexible body dynamics to determine the spacecraft capability to achieve precise velocity changes for a variety of maneuver modes, as dictated by the requirements and as are tested and verified by computer simulation. Proportional velocity change magnitude accuracies as small as 0.34%, proportional velocity change pointing accuracies as little as 10 milliradians and fixed velocity change accuracies as precise as 0.015 m/sec are indicative of the stringency of these requirements. Error sources considered in the statistical analysis include probabilistic uncertainties due to wobble, plume impingement, nutation, thruster and accelerometer misalignments and radial offsets, gyro drift, burn timing, mass properties and algorithm errors. With its twelve thrusters, the versatility of the spacecraft to maneuver among the Galilean moons for eleven encounters after delivering a probe into the Jovian atmosphere provides a new level of challenge in the area of maneuver analysis.

Longuski, J. M.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Preliminary Performance Analyses of the Constellation Program ARES 1 Crew Launch Vehicle

By the time NASA's Exploration Systems Architecture Study (ESAS) report had been released to the public in December 2005, engineers at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center had already initiated the first of a series of detailed design analysis cycles (DACs) for the Constellation Program Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV), which has been given the name Ares I. As a major component of the Constellation Architecture, the CLV's initial role will be to deliver crew and cargo aboard the newly conceived Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) to a staging orbit for eventual rendezvous with the International Space Station (ISS). However, the long-term goal and design focus of the CLV will be to provide launch services for a crewed CEV in support of lunar exploration missions. Key to the success of the CLV design effort and an integral part of each DAC is a detailed performance analysis tailored to assess nominal and dispersed performance of the vehicle, to determine performance sensitivities, and to generate design-driving dispersed trajectories. Results of these analyses provide valuable design information to the program for the current design as well as provide feedback to engineers on how to adjust the current design in order to maintain program goals. This paper presents a condensed subset of the CLV performance analyses performed during the CLV DAC-1 cycle. Deterministic studies include development of the CLV DAC-1 reference trajectories, identification of vehicle stage impact footprints, an assessment of launch window impacts to payload performance, and the computation of select CLV payload partials. Dispersion studies include definition of input uncertainties, Monte Carlo analysis of trajectory performance parameters based on input dispersions, assessment of CLV flight performance reserve (FPR), assessment of orbital insertion accuracy, and an assessment of bending load indicators due to dispersions in vehicle angle of attack and side slip angle. A short discussion of the various customers for the dispersion results, along with results and ramifications of each study, are also provided.

Phillips, Mark↗
NASA NTRS2001

Aeroservoelastic Uncertainty Model Identification from Flight Data

Uncertainty modeling is a critical element in the estimation of robust stability margins for stability boundary prediction and robust flight control system development. There has been a serious deficiency to date in aeroservoelastic data analysis with attention to uncertainty modeling. Uncertainty can be estimated from flight data using both parametric and nonparametric identification techniques. The model validation problem addressed in this paper is to identify aeroservoelastic models with associated uncertainty structures from a limited amount of controlled excitation inputs over an extensive flight envelope. The challenge to this problem is to update analytical models from flight data estimates while also deriving non-conservative uncertainty descriptions consistent with the flight data. Multisine control surface command inputs and control system feedbacks are used as signals in a wavelet-based modal parameter estimation procedure for model updates. Transfer function estimates are incorporated in a robust minimax estimation scheme to get input-output parameters and error bounds consistent with the data and model structure. Uncertainty estimates derived from the data in this manner provide an appropriate and relevant representation for model development and robust stability analysis. This model-plus-uncertainty identification procedure is applied to aeroservoelastic flight data from the NASA Dryden Flight Research Center F-18 Systems Research Aircraft.

Brenner, Martin J.↗