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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 415 records · Page 23

Direct Bayesian inference for fault severity assessment in Digital-Twin-Based fault diagnosis

For applications in condition-based maintenance of nuclear systems, the assessment of fault severity is crucial. In this work, we developed a framework that allows for direct inference of the probability distributions of possible faults in a system. Here, we employed a model-based approach with model residuals generated from analytical redundancy relations provided by physics-based models of the system components. From real-time sensor readings, the values of the model residuals can be calculated, and the posterior probability distributions of the faults can be computed directly using the methods of Bayesian networks. From the posterior distribution of each fault, one can estimate the fault probability based on a chosen threshold and assess the severity of the fault. By eliminating the discretization and simplifications in middle steps, this approach allows us to leverage the available computational resources to provide more accurate fault probability estimates and severity assessments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Feedforward-feedback ammonia control at a water resource recovery facility based on a digital twin with hybrid model

Ammonia-based aeration control (ABAC) at full-scale Water Resource Recovery Facilities (WRRFs) can be challenged by diurnal loading and transport delays. This work addressed these challenges using a hybrid feedforward–feedback controller built on Activated Sludge Model 1 (ASM1), marking the first full-scale deployment to pair a mechanistic feedforward core with data-driven corrections. The objectives were to improve ammonia setpoint tracking, assess performance of the mechanistic model when enhanced with data-driven corrections, and document full-scale operation. The hybrid model incorporates two data-driven components: (1) a Mechanistic Error Forecasting Engine (MEFE), consisting of a multivariate linear regressor and a long short-term memory (LSTM) ensemble. Defying expectations, low-parameter models outperformed more complex alternatives, reducing the mechanistic error by 71%. (2) A Residual Oscillation Forecasting Engine (ROFE), based on Fast Fourier Transform, reduced the remaining error by another 35%. Two proportional–integral (PI) feedback loops further (i) trim the feedforward output and (ii) eliminate residual controller error in the final aerobic zone. In full-scale operation, the controller reduced mean-squared error (MSE) by 94% over the baseline and produced more stable dissolved oxygen (DO) setpoints. Overall, it was proven that layering multi-timescale data-driven models on a mechanistic core can yield reliable ABAC performance at WRRFs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

GenAI-Based Digital Twins Aided Data Augmentation Increases Accuracy in Real-Time Cokurtosis-Based Anomaly Detection of Wearable Data

Early detection of potential infectious disease outbreaks is crucial for developing effective interventions. In this study, we introduce advanced anomaly detection methods tailored for health datasets collected from wearables, offering insights at both individual and population levels. Leveraging real-world physiological data from wearables, including heart rate and activity, we developed a framework for the early detection of infection in individuals. Despite the availability of data from recent pandemics, substantial gaps remain in data collection, hindering method development. To bridge this gap, we utilized Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Networks (WGANs) to generate realistic synthetic wearable data, augmenting our dataset for training. Subsequently, we use these augmented datasets to implement a cokurtosis-based technique for anomaly detection in multivariate time-series data. Our approach includes a comprehensive assessment of uncertainties in synthetic data compared to the actual data upon which it was modeled, as well as the uncertainty associated with fine-tuning anomaly detection thresholds in physiological measurements. Through our work, we present an enhanced method for early anomaly detection in multivariate datasets, with promising applications in healthcare and beyond. This framework could revolutionize early detection strategies and significantly impact public health response efforts in future pandemics.

Data-Driven Digital Twins↗

Airport Surface Transportation Digital Twin Framework

Interim results from the Athena project show that combining demand forecast with a traffic microsimulation framework can help airports navigate operational challenges with increased travel.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Probabilistic learning and updating of a digital twin for composite material systems

This paper presents an approach for characterizing and estimating statistical dependence between a large number of observables in a composite material system. Conditional regression is carried out using the estimated joint density function, permitting a systematic exploration of interdependence between fine scale and coarse observables that can be used for both prognosis and design of complex material systems. An example demonstrates the integration of experimental data with a computational database. The statistical approach is based on the probabilistic learning on manifolds recently developed by the authors. This approach leverages intrinsic structure detected through diffusion on graphs with projected stochastic differential equations to generate samples constrained to that structure.

42 ENGINEERING↗