Examining Conditions Supporting the Development of Anomalous Charge Structures in Supercell Thunderstorms in the Southeastern United States
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Sarah M. Stough↗
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A Bayesian‐Like Approach to Describe the Regional Variation of High‐Flash Rate Thunderstorms From Thermodynamic and Kinematic Environment Variables
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Nana Liu↗
Impact of Smoke Aerosol Loading on Lightning Characteristics of Pyrocumulonimbus Compared With Other High‐Based Thunderstorms
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Elena Dworak↗
Changes to the Appearance of Optical Lightning Flashes Observed From Space According to Thunderstorm Organization and Structure
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Michael Peterson↗
Characterizing Charge Structure in Central Argentina Thunderstorms During RELAMPAGO Utilizing a New Charge Layer Polarity Identification Method
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Bruno L. Medina↗
Preliminary Development and Evaluation of Lightning Jump Algorithms for the Real-Time Detection of Severe Weather
Previous studies have demonstrated that rapid increases in total lightning activity (intracloud + cloud-to-ground) are often observed tens of minutes in advance of the occurrence of severe weather at the ground. These rapid increases in lightning activity have been termed "lightning jumps." Herein, we document a positive correlation between lightning jumps and the manifestation of severe weather in thunderstorms occurring across the Tennessee Valley and Washington D.C. A total of 107 thunderstorms were examined in this study, with 69 of the 107 thunderstorms falling into the category of non-severe, and 38 into the category of severe. From the dataset of 69 isolated non-severe thunderstorms, an average peak 1 minute flash rate of 10 flashes/min was determined. A variety of severe thunderstorm types were examined for this study including an MCS, MCV, tornadic outer rainbands of tropical remnants, supercells, and pulse severe thunderstorms. Of the 107 thunderstorms, 85 thunderstorms (47 non-severe, 38 severe) from the Tennessee Valley and Washington D.C tested 6 lightning jump algorithm configurations (Gatlin, Gatlin 45, 2(sigma), 3(sigma), Threshold 10, and Threshold 8). Performance metrics for each algorithm were then calculated, yielding encouraging results from the limited sample of 85 thunderstorms. The 2(sigma) lightning jump algorithm had a high probability of detection (POD; 87%), a modest false alarm rate (FAR; 33%), and a solid Heidke Skill Score (HSS; 0.75). A second and more simplistic lightning jump algorithm named the Threshold 8 lightning jump algorithm also shows promise, with a POD of 81% and a FAR of 41%. Average lead times to severe weather occurrence for these two algorithms were 23 minutes and 20 minutes, respectively. The overall goal of this study is to advance the development of an operationally-applicable jump algorithm that can be used with either total lightning observations made from the ground, or in the near future from space using the GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper.
Schultz, Christopher J.↗
Recent Advancements in Lightning Jump Algorithm Work
In the past year, the primary objectives were to show the usefulness of total lightning as compared to traditional cloud-to-ground (CG) networks, test the lightning jump algorithm configurations in other regions of the country, increase the number of thunderstorms within our thunderstorm database, and to pinpoint environments that could prove difficult for any lightning jump configuration. A total of 561 thunderstorms have been examined in the past year (409 non-severe, 152 severe) from four regions of the country (North Alabama, Washington D.C., High Plains of CO/KS, and Oklahoma). Results continue to indicate that the 2 lightning jump algorithm configuration holds the most promise in terms of prospective operational lightning jump algorithms, with a probability of detection (POD) at 81%, a false alarm rate (FAR) of 45%, a critical success index (CSI) of 49% and a Heidke Skill Score (HSS) of 0.66. The second best performing algorithm configuration was the Threshold 4 algorithm, which had a POD of 72%, FAR of 51%, a CSI of 41% and an HSS of 0.58. Because a more complex algorithm configuration shows the most promise in terms of prospective operational lightning jump algorithms, accurate thunderstorm cell tracking work must be undertaken to track lightning trends on an individual thunderstorm basis over time. While these numbers for the 2 configuration are impressive, the algorithm does have its weaknesses. Specifically, low-topped and tropical cyclone thunderstorm environments are present issues for the 2 lightning jump algorithm, because of the suppressed vertical depth impact on overall flash counts (i.e., a relative dearth in lightning). For example, in a sample of 120 thunderstorms from northern Alabama that contained 72 missed events by the 2 algorithm 36% of the misses were associated with these two environments (17 storms).
Schultz, Christopher J.↗
Deep cumulonimbus cloud systems in the tropics with and without lightning
The thunderstorm frequency over the oceans during the Global Atmospheric Research Program Atlantic Tropical Experiment is quantified by examination of over 20,000 surface hourly observations from research ships. The overall thunderstorm frequency is one thunderstorm day per ship per month. There were many examples of intense mesoscale systems, such as squall lines, passing over the ships, extending to 13-17 km in altitude, but that nevertheless produce few reports of lightning. This reinforces the idea, based on data from other tropical ocean regions and from global satellite data, that in spite of the ubiquitous 'hot towers' over tropical oceans, marine cumulonimbus produce little lightning. Climatological data from the monsoon regions of the Tropics are analyzed to reveal that during periods of onshore flow and heavy rainfall the oceanic regime of high rainfall but little lightning moves onshore. A rain-thunderstorm ratio is defined and used to characterize convective rainfall regimes as continental (relatively little) or maritime (relatively great) rainfall compared to the number of thunderstorm days. In regions such as West Africa and south Asia, the seasonal rainfall peak is actually accompanied by a thunderstorm minimum. It is further suggested that the data support the idea, not original here, that vertical velocities in oceanic cumulonimbus clouds tend to be low compared with continental clouds. It is hypothesized that most oceanic storms have updrafts weaker than a posssible threshold value, below which the supercooled liquid water, large ice particles, and ice-ice collisions are not present in the mixed-phase region in sufficient concentrations for electrification leading to lightning.
Zipser, Edward J.↗
Global Electric Circuit Implications of Combined Aircraft Storm Electric Current Measurements and Satellite-Based Diurnal Lightning Statistics
Using rotating vane electric field mills and Gerdien capacitors, we measured the electric field profile and conductivity during 850 overflights of thunderstorms and electrified shower clouds (ESCs) spanning regions including the Southeastern United States, the Western Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico, Central America and adjacent oceans, Central Brazil, and the South Pacific. The overflights include storms over land and ocean, and with positive and negative fields above the storms. Over three-quarters (78%) of the land storms had detectable lightning, while less than half (43%) of the oceanic storms had lightning. Integrating our electric field and conductivity data, we determined total conduction currents and flash rates for each overpass. With knowledge of the storm location (land or ocean) and type (with or without lightning), we determine the mean currents by location and type. The mean current for ocean thunderstorms is 1.7 A while the mean current for land thunderstorms is 1.0 A. The mean current for ocean ESCs 0.41 A and the mean current for land ESCs is 0.13 A. We did not find any significant regional or latitudinal based patterns in our total conduction currents. By combining the aircraft derived storm currents and flash rates with diurnal flash rate statistics derived from the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and Optical Transient Detector (OTD) low Earth orbiting satellites, we reproduce the diurnal variation in the global electric circuit (i.e., the Carnegie curve) to within 4% for all but two short periods of time. The agreement with the Carnegie curve was obtained without any tuning or adjustment of the satellite or aircraft data. Given our data and assumptions, mean contributions to the global electric circuit are 1.1 kA (land) and 0.7 kA (ocean) from thunderstorms, and 0.22 kA (ocean) and 0.04 (land) from ESCs, resulting in a mean total conduction current estimate for the global electric circuit of 2.0 kA. Mean storm counts are 1100 for land thunderstorms, 530 for ocean ESCs, 390 for ocean thunderstorms, and 330 for land ESCs.
Mach, Douglas M.↗
An Overview of the Total Lightning Jump Algorithm: Past, Present and Future Work
Rapid increases in total lightning prior to the onset of severe and hazardous weather have been observed for several decades. These rapid increases are known as lightning jumps and can precede the occurrence of severe weather by tens of minutes. Over the past decade, a significant effort has been made to quantify lightning jump behavior in relation to its utility as a predictor of severe and hazardous weather. Based on a study of 34 thunderstorms that occurred in the Tennessee Valley, early work conducted in our group at Huntsville determined that it was indeed possible to create a reasonable operational lightning jump algorithm (LJA) based on a statistical framework relying on the variance behavior of the lightning trending signal. We the expanded this framework and tested several variance-related LJA configurations on a much larger sample of 87 severe and non severe thunderstorms. This study determined that a configuration named the "2(sigma)" algorithm had the most promise in development of the operational LJA with a probability of detection (POD) of 87%, a false alarm rate (FAR) of 33%, a Heidke Skill Score (HSS) of 0.75. The 2(sigma) algorithm was then tested on an even larger sample of 711 thunderstorms of all types from four regions of the country where total lightning measurement capability existed. The result was very encouraging.Despite the larger number of storms and the inclusion of different regions of the country, the POD remained high (79%), the FAR was low (36%) and HSS was solid (0.71). Average lead time from jump to severe weather occurrence was 20.65 minutes, with a standard deviation of +/- 15 minutes. Also, trends in total lightning were compared to cloud to ground (CG) lightning trends, and it was determined that total lightning trends had a higher POD (79% vs 66%), lower FAR (36% vs 54 %) and a better HSS (0.71 vs 0.55). From the 711-storm case study it was determined that a majority of missed events were due to severe weather producing thunderstorms in low flashing environments. The latest efforts have been geared toward examining these low flashing storms in order to adjust the algorithm for such storms, thus enhancing the capability of the LJA. Future work will test the algorithm in real time using current satellite and radar based cell tracking methods, as well as, comparing total lightning jump occurrence to both satellite based and ground base observations of thunderstorms to create correlations between lightning jumps and the observed structures within thunderstorms. Finally this algorithm will need to be tested using Geostationary Lightning Mapper proxy data to transition the algorithm from VHF ground based lightning measurements to lower frequency space-based lightning measurements.
Schultz, Christopher J.↗
A non-thermal mechanism for forcing cumulonimbus cloud
Within the thunderstorm there is an extensive region of collision between airflows having different transports of momentum. The inflow-updraft should interact with cloud layer environmental wind to produce counter-rotating vortex pairs somewhat like those produced in the laboratory by a jet in a crossflow. Atmospheric evidence of vortex pairs for severe thunderstorms is shown from measurements made by aircraft and by radar. A model of a non-thermal mechanism for low pressure centers in thunderstorms is developed which scales from the laboratory to the atmosphere using a turbulence Reynolds number, a velocity ratio and the diameter of the updraft. Central pressure deficits and vorticity of lee vortices scaled up from the laboratory observations are consistent with the few available thunderstorm measurements. The model is used to explain deviate motion of thunderstorms as well as to suggest a mechanism for tornado development and movement.
Connell, J.↗
Experimentally determined factors influencing electrical coupling mechanisms
Measurements of the time-dependent electric field in the stratosphere and mesosphere above a thunderstorm have made it possible to construct an equivalent circuit model of a thunderstorm involving capacitive as well as resistive elements. The model illustrates how charge is coupled to the global circuit and how the circuit can be modulated. The average current from the thunderstorm cell to the global circuit is largely controlled by the rate of cloud-to-earth flashes, which can be affected in marginal cases by external influences. The combined effect of the earth's magnetic field and the extreme nonuniformity of mesospheric conductivity cause a large fraction of the current from nighttime thunderstorm to flow downward through the mesosphere in high-latitude regions, thus facilitating coupling between thunderstorms and high-latitude phenomena.
Hale, L. C.↗
Lightning studies using LDAR and LLP data
This study intercompared lightning data from LDAR and LLP systems in order to learn more about the spatial relationships between thunderstorm electrical discharges aloft and lightning strikes to the surface. The ultimate goal of the study is to provide information that can be used to improve the process of real-time detection and warning of lightning by weather forecasters who issue lightning advisories. The Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR) System provides data on electrical discharges from thunderstorms that includes cloud-ground flashes as well as lightning aloft (within cloud, cloud-to-cloud, and sometimes emanating from cloud to clear air outside or above cloud). The Lightning Location and Protection (LLP) system detects primarily ground strikes from lightning. Thunderstorms typically produce LDAR signals aloft prior to the first ground strike, so that knowledge of preferred positions of ground strikes relative to the LDAR data pattern from a thunderstorm could allow advance estimates of enhanced ground strike threat. Studies described in the report examine the position of LLP-detected ground strikes relative to the LDAR data pattern from the thunderstorms. The report also describes other potential approaches to the use of LDAR data in the detection and forecasting of lightning ground strikes.
Forbes, Gregory S.↗
Lightning studies using LDAR and companion data sets
Research was conducted to use the KSC Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR) system, together with companion data, in four subprojects: weather forecasting and advisory applications of LDAR, LDAR in relation to field mill readings, lightning flash and stroke detection using LDAR, and LDAR in relation to radar reflectivity patterns and KSC wind profiler vertical velocities. The research is aimed at developing rules, algorithms, and training materials that can be used by the operational weather forecasters who issue weather advisories for daily ground operations and launches by NASA and the United States Air Force. During the summer of 1993, LDAR data was examined on an hourly basis from 14 thunderstorm days and compared to ground strike data measured by the Lightning Location and Protection (LLP) system. These data were re-examined during 1994 to identify, number, and track LDAR-detected storms continually throughout the day and avoid certain interpretation problems arising from the use of hourly files. An areal storm growth factor was incorporated into a scheme to use current mappings of LDAR-defined thunderstorms to predict future ground strikes. During the summer of 1994, extensive sets of LDAR and companion data have been collected for 16 thunderstorm days, including a variety of meteorological situations. Detailed case studies are being conducted to relate the occurence of LDAR to the radar structure and evolution of thunderstorms. Field mill (LPWS) data are being examined to evaluate the complementary nature of LDAR and LPLWS data in determining the time of beginning and ending of the ground strike threat at critical sites. A computerized lightning flash and stroke discrimination algorithm has been written that can be used to help locate the points of origin of the electrical discharges, help distinguish in-cloud, cloud-ground, and upward flashes, and perhaps determine when the threat of ground strikes has ceased. Surface wind tower (mesonet), radar, sounding, and KSC wind profiler data will be used to develop schemes to help anticipate the timing and location of new thunderstorm development. Analysis of this data will continue in graduate student research projects.
Forbes, Gregory S.↗
The Altus Cumulus Electrification Study (ACES): A UAV-Based Science Demonstration
The Altus Cumulus Electrification Study (ACES) is an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)- based project that investigated thunderstorms in the vicinity of the Florida Everglades in August 2002. ACES was conducted to investigate storm electrical activity and its relationship to storm morphology, and to validate satellite-based lightning measurements. In addition, as part of the NASA sponsored UAV-based science demonstration program, this project provided a scientifically useful demonstration of the utility and promise of UAV platforms for Earth science and applications observations. ACES employed the Altus II aircraft, built by General Atomics - Aeronautical Systems, Inc. Key science objectives simultaneously addressed by ACES are to: (1) investigate lightning-storm relationships, (2) study storm electrical budgets, and provide Lightning Imaging Sensor validation. The ACES payload included electrical, magnetic, and optical sensors to remotely characterize the lightning activity and the electrical environment within and around thunderstorms. ACES contributed important electrical and optical measurements not available from other sources. Also, the high altitude vantage point of the UAV observing platform (up to 55,000 feet) provided cloud-top perspective. By taking advantage of its slow flight speed (70 to 100 knots), long endurance, and high altitude flight, the Altus was flown near, and when possible, over (but never into) thunderstorms for long periods of time that allowed investigations to be conducted over entire storm life cycles. An innovative real time weather system was used to identify and vector the aircraft to selected thunderstorms and safely fly around these storms, while, at the same time monitor the weather near our base of operations. In addition, concurrent ground-based observations that included radar (Miami and Key West WSRBD, NASA NPOL), satellite imagery, and lightning (NALDN and Los Alamos EDOT) enable the UAV measurements to be more completely interpreted and evaluated in the context of the thunderstorm structure, evolution, and environment.
Blakeslee, R. J.↗
Infrared Data for Storm Analysis
The papers in this section include: 1) 'Thunderstorm Top Structure Observed by Aircraft Overflights with an Infrared Radiometer'; 2) 'Thunderstorm Intensity as Determined from Satellite Data'; 3) 'Relation of Satellite-Based Thunderstorm Intensity to Radar-Estimated Rainfall'; 4) 'A Simple Physical Basis for Relating Geosynchronous Satellite Infrared Observations to Thunderstorm Rainfall'; 5) 'Satellite-Observed Cloud-Top Height Changes in Tornadic Thunderstorms'; 6) 'Predicting Tropical Cyclone Intensity Using Satellite-Measured Equivalent Blackbody Temperatures of Cloud Tops'.
Adler, R.↗
Radar Differential Phase Signatures of Ice Orientation for the Prediction of Lightning Initiation and Cessation
The majority of lightning-related casualties typically occur during thunderstorm initiation (e.g., first flash) or dissipation (e.g., last flash). The physics of electrification and lightning production during thunderstorm initiation is fairly well understood. As such, the literature includes a number of studies presenting various radar techniques (using reflectivity and, if available, other dual-polarimetric parameters) for the anticipation of initial electrification and first lightning flash. These radar techniques have shown considerable skill at forecasting first flash. On the other hand, electrical processes and lightning production during thunderstorm dissipation are not nearly as well understood and few, if any, successful techniques have been developed to anticipate the last flash and subsequent cessation of lightning. One promising approach involves the use of dual-polarimetric radar variables to infer the presence of oriented ice crystals in lightning producing storms. In the absence of strong vertical electric fields, ice crystals fall with their largest (semi-major) axis in the horizontal associated with gravitational and aerodynamic forces. In thunderstorms, strong vertical electric fields (100-200 kV m(sup -1)) have been shown to orient small (less than 2 mm) ice crystals such that their semi-major axis is vertical (or nearly vertical). After a lightning flash, the electric field is typically relaxed and prior radar research suggests that ice crystals rapidly resume their preferred horizontal orientation. In active thunderstorms, the vertical electric field quickly recovers and the ice crystals repeat this cycle of orientation for each nearby flash. This change in ice crystal orientation from primarily horizontal to vertical during the development of strong vertical electric fields prior to a lightning flash forms the physical basis for anticipating lightning initiation and, potentially, cessation. Research has shown that radar reflectivity (Z) and other co-polar back-scattering radar measurements like differential reflectivity (Z(sub dr)) typically measured by operational dual-polarimetric radars are not sensitive to these changes in ice crystal orientation. However, prior research has demonstrated that oriented ice crystals cause significant propagation effects that can be routinely measured by most dual-polarimetric radars from X-band (3 cm) to S-band (10 cm) wavelengths using the differential propagation phase shift (often just called differential phase, phi(sub dp)) or its range derivative, the specific differential phase (K(sub dp)). Advantages of the differential phase include independence from absolute or relative power calibration, attenuation, differential attenuation and relative insensitivity to ground clutter and partial beam occultation effects (as long as the signal remains above noise). In research mode, these sorts of techniques have been used to anticipate initial cloud electrification, lightning initiation, and cessation. In this study, we develop a simplified model of ice crystal size, shape, orientation, dielectric, and associated radar scattering and propagation effects in order to simulate various idealized scenarios of ice crystals responding to a hypothetical electric field and their dual-polarimetric radar signatures leading up to lightning initiation and particularly cessation. The sensitivity of the K(sub dp) ice orientation signature to various ice properties and radar wavelength will be explored. Since K(sub dp) is proportional to frequency in the Rayleigh- Gans scattering regime, the ice orientation signatures should be more obvious at higher (lower) frequencies (wavelengths). As a result, simulations at radar wavelengths from 10 cm down to 1 cm (Ka-band) will be conducted. Resonance effects will be considered using the T-matrix method. Since most K(sub dp) Vbased observations have been shown at S-band, we will present ice orientation signatures from C-band (UAH/NASA ARMOR) and X-bd (UAH MAX) dual-polarimetric radars located in Northern Alabama. Issues related to optimal radar scanning for the detection of oriented ice will be discussed. Preliminary suggestions on how these differential phase signatures of oriented ice could contribute to lightning initiation and cessation algorithms will be presented.
Carey, L.D.↗
The Meteorology of Storms that Produce Narrow Bipolar Events
Narrow Bipolar Events (NBEs) are compact intracloud discharges that produce the most powerful lightning‐related radio frequency signals that have been observed. However, their luminosity is below the threshold for detectability from current and past spaceborne optical sensors. NBEs have been loosely associated with convective intensity, but their occurrence tends to be highly localized in time and space within a thunderstorm, and there remain many questions about whether and to what extent they are significantly related to meteorological processes within thunderstorms. Using the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA), the National Lightning Detection Network, and available Doppler and polarimetric radar data, case studies will be presented for storm events that produced large numbers of NBEs (~10s‐100s) during their lifetimes. NBEs are documented via a method that identifies high peak power (>40‐50 dBW) initial VHF sources within a specific altitude band in the upper levels of thunderstorms. The production of NBEs, including spatial and temporal variability, will be compared to the radar‐inferred kinematic and microphysical structure and evolution of thunderstorms, as well as their NALMA‐ and NLDN‐inferred electrical characteristics. The results should provide new insights into the relationships between NBEs and thunderstorm processes.
Lang, Timothy J.↗