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At least 415 records · Page 23

A Reliability Model to Assess Reliability of Shuttle Derived Launch Vehicle and Next Generation Vehicles

One important thrust in NASA s space exploration vision is to improve the safety and reliability of future launch vehicles. A quantitative reliability model is an essential technical tool to evaluate launch vehicle reliability and to enhance launch vehicle configuration down selection and detailed designs. A quantitative reliability model that supports NASA's thrust has been developed and implemented in an MS Excel spreadsheet. The model addresses key reliability parameters, and provides for sensitivity analysis of various vehicle designs. This paper presents the specific elements of the model and examples of selected sensitivity analysis results. Reliability input parameters in the model include the following: 1. Main propulsion element failure probability; 2. Propulsion element catastrophic failure fraction (Cf). This is defined as the ratio of probability of uncontained failures over sum of probability of uncontained failures and contained failures); 3. Engine-out design vs. no-engine-out design; 4. Engine with redlines vs. no redlines; 5. Different levels of health management system implementation; 6. Launch Escape System (LES) reliability; and 7. Power level correlation with reliability. The sensitivity results will illustrate the impact of each of the above parameters on several reliability metrics: Loss of Mission (LOM), LOV (Loss of Vehicle) and Loss of Crew (LOC).

Huang, Zhao↗

The Russian Model of Internet Control and Its Significance

Russia has emerged as an exemplar of an innovative and experimental – though not always completely consistent or successful – alternative approach to information manipulation and control that differs significantly from the more-often discussed Chinese “Great Firewall” system and other approaches with an emphasis on systemic technical censorship. The Russian model relies on a mix of less overt, more plausibly deniable, legalistic, and often non-technical mechanisms to manipulate online information flows, narratives, and framings, to affect and shape public opinion without resort to universal censorship. The government uses surveillance, a panoply of vague laws, the prosecution or censorship of exemplars, proxy actors and hard to track extra-legal pressures, hacking and leaks, and a heavy emphasis on content production and manipulation to influence narratives and shape public opinion. This model for the domestic control of information not only fits with Russia’s own political system, but is likely to prove more resonant and easier to emulate across many other countries in which a systematic-censorship approach is not technologically or politically feasible. The learning and experimentation involved in this type of domestic information manipulation also has direct applicability to the use of information operations in international political and military competition. The future of this model will likely depend on continuing innovation, not least on the leveraging of advances in artificial intelligence and big data analysis. If successful, however, this might look very different from the future of information control in China – and have significantly different repercussions for democracies and the international system.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Near-field Testing of the 15-meter Model of the Hoop Column Antenna

The technical results from near-field testing of the 15-meter model of the hoop column antenna at the Martin Marietta Denver Aerospace facility are documented. The antenna consists of a deployable central column and a 15 meter hoop, stiffened by cables into a structure with a high tolerance repeatable surface and offset feed location. The surface has been configured to have four offset parabolic apertures, each about 6 meters in diameter, and is made of gold plated molybdenum wire mesh. Pattern measurements were made with feed systems radiating at frequencies of 7.73, 11.60, 2.27, 2.225, and 4.26 (all in GHz). This report (Volume 1) covers the testing from an overall viewpoint and contains information of generalized interest for testing large antennas. This volume discusses the deployment of the antenna in the Martin Facility and the measurements to determine mechanical stability and trueness of the reflector surface, gives the test program outline, and gives a synopsis of antenna electromagnetic performance. Three techniques for measuring surface mechanical tolerances were used (theodolites, metric cameras, and near-field phase), but only the near-field phase approach is included. The report also includes an error analysis. A detailed listing of the antenna patterns are provided for the 2.225 Ghz feed in Volume 3 of this report, and for all other feeds in Volume 2.

Hoover, J.↗

Execution Strategy Analysis (ESA) Origin Sites Readiness Model - 19073

This is a technical paper that does not take into account the contractual limitations under the Standard Contract for Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel and/or High-Level Radioactive Waste (Standard Contract) (10 CFR Part 961). Under the provisions of the Standard Contract, DOE does not consider spent nuclear fuel in multi-assembly canisters to be an acceptable waste form, absent a mutually agreed to contract amendment. To the extent discussions or recommendations in this paper conflict with the provisions of the Standard Contract, the Standard Contract provisions prevail. The DOE Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) Office of Spent Fuel and Waste Disposition (SFWD) Integrated Waste Management System (IWMS) program is developing an Execution Strategy Analysis (ESA) Origin Sites Readiness Model using the Goldsim{sup TM} software application to provide information on potential future approaches for removing SNF and HLW from origin sites such as commercial nuclear power plant sites. The purpose of this ESA model is to apply integrated waste management system analysis, system engineering, and decision analysis principles to inform future decisions regarding potential future nuclear waste management system architectures. The ESA Origin Sites Readiness Model is a dynamic simulation modeling capability. It is developed for use in the analysis and comparison of potential future implementation strategies associated with an integrated nuclear waste management program. The model is designed to be independent of the destination of the SNF or HLW so the results from the Origin Sites Readiness Model are equally applicable to a wide range of scenarios involving shipments to generic destinations in an integrated waste management system. The model explicitly takes significant assumptions, uncertainties, and risks into account. Currently, the ESA Origin Sites Readiness Model includes 14 shutdown sites (Maine Yankee, Yankee Rowe, Connecticut Yankee, Vermont Yankee, La Crosse, Big Rock Point, Zion, Kewaunee, Fort Calhoun, Trojan, Rancho Seco, Humboldt Bay, San Onofre, and Crystal River) and is designed to be modular so that other sites can be added in the future. The model also includes multiple transportation modes (heavy haul truck, rail, and barge), activities related to the acquisition of transportation assets such as railcars and transportation casks, and site-specific considerations of on-site and near-site transportation infrastructure. The model was developed using the ESA process with Subject Matter Experts (SME); it incorporates uncertainty and risks and provides a structured, systematic methodology for evaluating potential SNF campaign scenarios. The model also complements other system-level logistics tools being developed by SFWD. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Business Intelligence Modeling in Launch Operations

This technology project is to advance an integrated Planning and Management Simulation Model for evaluation of risks, costs, and reliability of launch systems from Earth to Orbit for Space Exploration. The approach builds on research done in the NASA ARC/KSC developed Virtual Test Bed (VTB) to integrate architectural, operations process, and mission simulations for the purpose of evaluating enterprise level strategies to reduce cost, improve systems operability, and reduce mission risks. The objectives are to understand the interdependency of architecture and process on recurring launch cost of operations, provide management a tool for assessing systems safety and dependability versus cost, and leverage lessons learned and empirical models from Shuttle and International Space Station to validate models applied to Exploration. The systems-of-systems concept is built to balance the conflicting objectives of safety, reliability, and process strategy in order to achieve long term sustainability. A planning and analysis test bed is needed for evaluation of enterprise level options and strategies for transit and launch systems as well as surface and orbital systems. This environment can also support agency simulation .based acquisition process objectives. The technology development approach is based on the collaborative effort set forth in the VTB's integrating operations. process models, systems and environment models, and cost models as a comprehensive disciplined enterprise analysis environment. Significant emphasis is being placed on adapting root cause from existing Shuttle operations to exploration. Technical challenges include cost model validation, integration of parametric models with discrete event process and systems simulations. and large-scale simulation integration. The enterprise architecture is required for coherent integration of systems models. It will also require a plan for evolution over the life of the program. The proposed technology will produce long-term benefits in support of the NASA objectives for simulation based acquisition, will improve the ability to assess architectural options verses safety/risk for future exploration systems, and will facilitate incorporation of operability as a systems design consideration, reducing overall life cycle cost for future systems. The future of business intelligence of space exploration will focus on the intelligent system-of-systems real-time enterprise. In present business intelligence, a number of technologies that are most relevant to space exploration are experiencing the greatest change. Emerging patterns of set of processes rather than organizational units leading to end-to-end automation is becoming a major objective of enterprise information technology. The cost element is a leading factor of future exploration systems.

Bardina, Jorge E.↗

High-Fidelity Modeling of a Type-5 Wind Turbine Gearbox (Intern Technical Presentation) (Poster)

Type-5 wind turbines are unique in their use of a permanent magnet synchronous generator, as well as their use of a hydraulic torque converter. This architecture presents an opportunity to provide steady and grid-ready energy without the need for a power converter. With infrastructure continuity and reliability being an important topic amongst renewable energies, researchers have been prompted to further investigate the benefits of type-5 turbines’ unique electromechanical configuration on stable electricity generation. Researchers involved in the WindSG project, SG standing for synchronous generator, are aiming to model a type-5 turbine using Real Time Digital Simulation (RTDS) to evaluate its efficacy in the grid. RSCAD, the software run on the RTDS, comes pre-loaded with electrical and electromechanical components to help simulate electrical generation and grid conditions. However, within this repertoire there is a lack of a component to represent a gearbox with high-fidelity. Within RSCAD’s case studies, the gearbox is often represented simply by a gear ratio value. This presented the task of developing a high-fidelity gearbox model in RSCAD for use in the larger RTDS type-5 wind turbine model. This presentation describes a method of developing a lumped parameter mathematical model to represent a planetary-parallel-parallel gearbox in RSCAD for use in RTDS.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM) Version 3

The Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM) version 3 is NASA’s most current and accurate model of the meteoroid environment. MEM 3 supersedes all previous versions of MEM, including MEM Release 2.0 (MEMR2), MEM Release 1.0c (MEMR1c), and previously internally controlled and released versions of MEMCxP v2.0 and LunarMEM v2.0. Earlier versions of MEM superseded older models of the meteoroid environment such as the Grün model and its derivative, Technical Memo 4527 (hereafter abbreviated as TM 4527) [1]. Prior to the establishment of the NASA Meteoroid Environment Office (MEO), NASA’s meteoroid environment models relied on a simple empirical expression derived from [2], as described in [3] and later in [1]. This expression describes the meteoroid flux incident on a flat plate near 1 au. TM 4527 assumes an isotropic environment, making the orientation of the plate irrelevant [4]. The flux was combined with scale factors to account for the reduction in flux occurring when the Earth shields the spacecraft from a portion of the meteoroid environment and the enhancement in flux due to the focusing effect of Earth’s gravitational field. TM 4527 also introduced a crude, piecewise meteoroid speed distribution with an average velocity of 19 km/s for an orbiting spacecraft based on [5]. Finally, TM 4527 assumed a three-step density distribution in which dust particles smaller than 10−6 g have a density of 2 g/cu cm, micrometeoroids between 10−6 g and 0.01 g have a density of 1 g/cu cm, and meteoroids larger than 0.01 g have a density of 0.5 g/cm3. Thus, the meteoroid model presented in TM 4527 was assembled from multiple independent sources. The model of TM 4527 was also used for years in Space Station risk assessments, and is described in Space Station Specification (SSP) 30425.

Moorhead, A. V.↗

Accuracy of a Crude Approach to Urban Multi-Scale Building Energy Models Compared to 15-min Electricity Use

ASHRAE has recently named a TC4.7 subcommittee on Multi-Scale Energy Modeling and there have been many technical developments focused on urban-scale energy modeling with the goal of creating building energy models for all buildings in a city to facilitate simulation-informed energy optimization for the built environment. These efforts often rely on non-scalable, local sources of information (e.g. county’s tax assessor’s database) to create more accurate models of those buildings. In partnership with the local utility, a year’s worth of real-world 15-minute electrical use data from 178,377 premise buildings has been assessed. This smart meter data is statistically analyzed and compared to corresponding simulation data for 97 different building prototypes in order to better assess simulation accuracy for various utility-defined use cases. To our knowledge, this is the first time real world and simulated building energy use data have been compared at this scale.

Garrison, Eric↗

Pumped Storage Hydropower Resource and Deployment Potential

There is growing interest in deploying new pumped storage hydropower (PSH) to meet grid needs for flexibility, reliability, and resiliency. This presentation describes how NLR resource assessment, cost modeling, and capacity expansion modeling are used to identify technical and economic PSH deployment potential and support industry decision-making on PSH investments. NLR's open data and tools demonstrate the vast technical potential of PSH on the order of 80 TW, and modeling shows economic PSH deployment under an attractive cost-value proposition.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

MOOSE-Workbench integration and MOOSE meshing capability enhancements to facilitate inputs and outputs for multiphysics modeling

The Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) is an open-source framework that supports many of the US Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) technical areas (TA). These TAs develop and use NEAMS physics and coupling modules in multiple ways to enable the research and development of complex physics models. In addition to the MOOSE framework, the NEAMS Workbench user interface provides a common analysis environment with user-interaction accelerators that streamline the tasks of model creation, review, execution, and out put inspection. In FY 2024, objectives were realized in the MOOSE framework application development support and user-oriented improvements. Application development improvements support both developers and users with an expanded Reactor Module and Mesh System, stateful material property support for mortar contact, and customizable convergence criteria. Additionally, new user-oriented features were implemented in the MOOSE framework language server, including autocompletion snippets, definition from source and find reference navigations, and syntax overrides. Lastly, improvements were made to the input interpreter necessary to support the MOOSE language server and the NEAMS Workbench so that they can interact with syntactically incomplete user inputs. These improvements and more were intended to address stakeholder feedback and improve developer and user ability to conduct advanced nuclear energy modeling and simulation in support of DOE and industry needs.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

MOOSE–Workbench Integration and MOOSE Meshing Capability Enhancements to Facilitate Inputs and Outputs for Multiphysics Modeling

The Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) is an open-source framework that supports many of the US Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) technical areas (TA). These TAs develop and use NEAMS physics and coupling modules in multiple ways to enable the research and development of complex physics models. In addition to the MOOSE framework, the NEAMS Workbench user interface provides a common analysis environment with user-interaction accelerators that streamline the tasks of model creation, review, execution, and output inspection. In FY 2024, objectives were realized in the MOOSE framework application development support and user-oriented improvements. Application development improvements support both developers and users with an expanded Reactor Module and Mesh System, stateful material property support for mortar contact, and customizable convergence criteria. Additionally, new user-oriented features were implemented in the MOOSE framework language server, including autocompletion snippets, definition from source and find reference navigations, and syntax overrides. Lastly, improvements were made to the input interpreter necessary to support the MOOSE language server and the NEAMS Workbench so that they can interact with syntactically incomplete user inputs. These improvements and more were intended to address stakeholder feedback and improve developer and user ability to conduct advanced nuclear energy modeling and simulation in support of DOE and industry needs.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM) 2024: User Guide

This Technical Memorandum (TM) presents the Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM) 2024 and its updated features. Mars-GRAM is an engineering-oriented atmospheric model that estimates mean values and statistical variations of atmospheric properties for Mars. This TM summarizes the atmospheric data model in Mars-GRAM and provides a guide for the user to obtain, set up, and run the code in various configurations. Additional details regarding the Mars-GRAM input and output files and how to interpret Mars-GRAM results are also provided.

atmospheric density↗

Operation of the computer model for microenvironment solar exposure

A computer model for microenvironmental solar exposure was developed to predict solar exposure to satellite surfaces which may shadow or reflect on one another. This document describes the technical features of the model as well as instructions for the installation and use of the program.

Gillis, J. R.↗

Three-Dimensional Numerical Modeling of Magnetohydrodynamic Augmented Propulsion Experiment

Over the past several years, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center has engaged in the design and development of an experimental research facility to investigate the use of diagonalized crossed-field magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) accelerators as a possible thrust augmentation device for thermal propulsion systems. In support of this effort, a three-dimensional numerical MHD model has been developed for the purpose of analyzing and optimizing accelerator performance and to aid in understanding critical underlying physical processes and nonideal effects. This Technical Memorandum fully summarizes model development efforts and presents the results of pretest performance optimization analyses. These results indicate that the MHD accelerator should utilize a 45deg diagonalization angle with the applied current evenly distributed over the first five inlet electrode pairs. When powered at 100 A, this configuration is expected to yield a 50% global efficiency with an 80% increase in axial velocity and a 50% increase in centerline total pressure.

Turner, M. W.↗

WVU/NETL Econometric Input-Output (ECIO) Model Documentation Update

The purpose of this technical report is to update any outdated documentation related to the ECIO model based on modifications made to the model in recent years and to provide greater operational detail on key ECIO model algorithms.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Waste Control Specialists Technical Review Team Report

1. Modeling of Drum 68660 and the WCS Drums: A calibrated model of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Drum 68660 indicates that pressurization of the drum by restriction of drum venting could have led to the thermal runaway reaction at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) in 2014, supporting the hypothesis that the contents of the drum were not fundamentally different from the overall remediated nitrate salt (RNS) waste stream. 2. Nitric Acid Reactions and Aging of the Waste: The stability of the WCS RNS waste with respect to autocatalytic thermal runaway due to nitric acid chemistry should increase over time as the nitric acid is depleted from chemical reactions in the drum. However, this cannot be confirmed because of the lack of long-term experimental data on the impact of aging on the reactivity of RNS waste. The calibrated model indicates that the waste drums retain most of their reactive components, metal nitrate salts and sWheat Scoop ® , even after eight years. 3. Pressure Effects and Runaway Reactions: The calibrated model indicates that if the drums and standard waste boxes (SWBs) are not allowed to pressurize during transport or storage and they are stored at historical WIPP repository temperatures, then an autocatalytic thermal runaway event is not expected to occur. Since the cause of Drum 68660 pressurization is not known, decision makers are not able to tailor mitigating strategies to the initiating event. Consequently, mitigating strategies must consider all feasible internal and external events that could lead to the pressurization of the drums. 4. Temperature Effects and Runaway Reactions: Temperature also has a strong influence on the stability of the waste. The calibrated model indicates that cooling the drums or SWBs can reduce the possibility of autocatalytic thermal runaway reactions. Simulations suggest that for a drum with a plugged vent, the probability of thermal runaway may be reduced or eliminated if wastes are maintained at or below 43 °F through active cooling measures from the initiation of transport until emplacement at WIPP.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗