Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “statistical modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 415 records · Page 23

Evaluation of Light-Element Reactions in the Resolved Resonance Region

Light-element reactions at low energies in the resolved resonance region are important for a range of applications in basic and applied sciences including nuclear reactors, nonproliferation, cultural heritage, forensics and environmental control, rare event investigations and nuclear astrophysics. In this paper, we report on an effort to evaluate charged-particle cross sections in the resolved resonance region and produce evaluated nuclear data files for further processing and inclusion in evaluated data libraries. We discuss the open issues in R-matrix calculations as we extend to higher energies, such as dealing with the rapidly growing number of open channels and merging with the regime of smooth cross sections described by the statistical model, and present attempts to address these issues in neutron-induced reactions relevant to nuclear reactor applications.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Projecting spatiotemporally explicit effects of climate change on stream temperature: A model comparison and implications for coldwater fishes

Conservation planners and resource managers seek information about how the availability and locations of cold-water habitats will change in the future and how these predictions vary among models. In this work, we used a physical process-based model to demonstrate the implications of climate change for streamflow and water temperature in two watersheds with distinctive flow regimes: the Snoqualmie watershed (WA) and Siletz watershed (OR), USA. Our model incorporated a downscaled ensemble of global climate model outputs and was calibrated with in situ and remotely sensed water temperatures. Furthermore, we compared predictions from our processed-based model to those from a publicly available and widely used statistical model. The process-based model projected greater changes in summer maximum water temperatures for the mixed-rain-snow Snoqualmie watershed than for the rain-dominated Siletz watershed as a result of the near-complete loss of winter snowpack and significant reduction in summer flow in the Snoqualmie watershed expected by the 2080s. Both models projected generally similar future spatial patterns of maximum water temperature in the two rivers, with cool reaches distributed farther upstream and fewer in number. However, the process-based model projected higher spatial heterogeneity in water temperature due to our spatially explicit simulation of streamflow and because we calibrated the model with spatially continuous remotely sensed water temperature data. We used stream temperature projections to assess the vulnerability of Pacific salmon and trout to changes in the spatial distribution of cold-water habitats during August by the 2080s. Results suggest that salmonids may have fewer summertime cold-water habitats in both watersheds. Projected stream warming may further limit particular species and life stages, especially in the Snoqualmie watershed. Our comparison of models highlights the importance of considering what might be gained by using a process-based model for evaluating and prioritizing management actions that mitigate climate impacts on cold-water habitats for stream fishes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Final Report for Statistical Nonlinear Optics of High Energy Density Plasmas: The Physics of Multiple Crossing Laser Beams

The various implementations of the STUD pulse program (spike trains of uneven duration and delay) for LPI (laser-plasma instability) control were studied in depth, and novel regimes were found. How to generate STUD pulses with large time-bandwidth products, how to measure their optical scattering signatures, and how to experimentally demonstrate their usefulness were explored. Theoretical and numerical studies were conducted on Stimulated Brillouin Scattering (SBS) and Crossed Beam Energy Transfer (CBET) including statistical models. We established how LPI can be tamed and gain democratized in space and time. Implementing STUD pulses on NIF was also studied. Future high rep rate lasers and fast diagnostics will aid in the adoption of the whole STUD pulse program for LPI control in High Energy Density Plasmas (HEDP).

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Multi 'omics comparison reveals metabolome biochemistry, not microbiome composition or gene expression, corresponds to elevated biogeochemical function in the hyporheic zone

Biogeochemical hotspots are pervasive at terrestrial-aquatic interfaces, particularly within groundwater-surface water mixing zones (hyporheic zones), and they are critical to understanding spatiotemporal variation in biogeochemical cycling. Here, we use multi ‘omic comparisons of hotspots to low-activity sediments to gain mechanistic insight into hyporheic zone organic matter processing. We hypothesized that microbiome structure and function, as described by metagenomics and metaproteomics, would distinguish hotspots from low-activity sediments through a shift towards carbohydrate-utilizing metabolic pathways and elucidate discrete mechanisms governing organic matter processing in each location. We also expected these differences to be reflected in the metabolome, whereby hotspot carbon (C) pools and metabolite transformations therein would be enriched in sugar-associated compounds. In contrast to expectations, we found pronounced phenotypic plasticity in the hyporheic zone microbiome that was denoted by similar microbiome structure, functional potential, and expression across sediments with dissimilar metabolic rates. Instead, diverse nitrogenous metabolites and biochemical transformations characterized hotspots. Metabolomes also corresponded more strongly to aerobic metabolism than bulk C content only (explaining 67% vs. 42% of variation), and bulk C did not improve statistical models based on metabolome composition alone. These results point to organic nitrogen as a significant regulatory factor influencing hyporheic zone organic matter processing. Based on our findings, we propose incorporating knowledge of metabolic pathways associated with different chemical fractions of C pools into ecosystem models will enhance prediction accuracy.

Graham, Emily B. (ORCID:0000000246237076)↗

Nascent energy distribution of the Criegee intermediate CH 2 OO from direct dynamics calculations of primary ozonide dissociation

Here, ozonolysis produces chemically activated carbonyl oxides (Criegee intermediates, CIs) that are either stabilized or decompose directly. This branching has an important impact on atmospheric chemistry. Prior theoretical studies have employed statistical models for energy partitioning to the CI arising from dissociation of the initially formed primary ozonide (POZ). Here, we used direct dynamics simulations to explore this partitioning for decomposition of c -C 2 H 4 O 3 , the POZ in ethylene ozonolysis. A priori estimates for the overall stabilization probability were then obtained by coupling the direct dynamics results with master equation simulations. Trajectories were initiated at the concerted cycloreversion transition state, as well as the second transition state of a stepwise dissociation pathway, both leading to a CI (H 2 COO) and formaldehyde (H 2 CO). The resulting CI energy distributions were incorporated in master equation simulations of CI decomposition to obtain channel-specific stabilized CI (sCI) yields. Master equation simulations of POZ formation and decomposition, based on newhigh-level electronic structure calculations, were used to predict yields for the different POZ decomposition channels. A non-negligible contribution of stepwise POZ dissociation was found, and new mechanistic aspects of this pathway were elucidated. By combining the trajectory-based channel-specific sCI yields with the channel branching fractions, an overall sCI yield of (48 +/- 5)% was obtained. Non-statistical energy release was shown to measurably affect sCI formation, with statistical models predicting significantly lower overall sCI yields (~30%). Within the range of experimental literature values (35%-54%), our trajectory-based calculations favor those clustered at the upper end of the spectrum. Published by AIP Publishing.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Cross-Market Price Difference Forecast Using Deep Learning for Electricity Markets

Price forecasting is in the center of decision making in electricity markets. Many researches have been done in forecasting energy prices while little research has been reported on forecasting price difference between day-ahead and realtime markets due to its high volatility, which however plays a critical role in virtual trading. To this end, this paper takes the first attempt to employ novel deep learning architecture with Bidirectional Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) units to forecast the price difference between day-ahead and real-time markets for the same node. The raw data is collected from PJM market, processed and fed into the proposed network. The Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and customized performance metric are used to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. Case studies show that it outperforms the traditional statistical models like ARIMA, and machine learning models like XGBoost and SVR methods in both RMSE and the capability of forecasting the sign of price difference. Additionally, to cross-market price difference forecast, the proposed approach has the potential to be applied to solve other forecasting problems such as price spread forecast in DA market for Financial Transmission Right (FTR) trading purpose.

DA/RT price difference↗

Synchrophasor Data Correction under GPS Spoofing Attack: A State Estimation-Based Approach

GPS spoofing attack (GSA) has been shown to be one of the most imminent threats to almost all cyber-physical systems incorporated with the civilian GPS signal. Specifically, for our current agenda of the modernization of the power grid, this may greatly jeopardize the benefits provided by the pervasively installed phasor measurement units (PMU). In this paper, we consider the case where synchrophasor data from PMUs are compromised due to the presence of a single GSA, and show that it can be corrected by signal processing techniques. In particular, we introduce a statistical model for synchrophasorbased power system state estimation (SE), and then derive the spoofing-matched algorithms for synchrophasor data correction against GPS spoofing attack. Different testing scenarios in IEEE 14-, 30-, 57-, 118-bus systems are simulated to show the proposed algorithms’ performance on GSA detection and state estimation. Numerical results demonstrate that our proposed algorithms can consistently locate and correct the spoofed synchrophasor data with good accuracy as long as the system observability is satisfied. The accuracy of state estimation is significantly improved compared with the traditional weighted least square method and approaches the performance under the Genie-aided method.

Phasor measurement units, Global Positioning Syste↗

Fission dynamics of 240Pu from saddle to scission and beyond

Calculations are presented for the time evolution of 240 Pu from the proximity of the outer saddle point until the fission fragments are well separated, using the time-dependent density functional theory extended to superfluid systems. We have tested three families of nuclear energy density functionals and found that all functionals exhibit a similar dynamics: The collective motion is highly dissipative and with little trace of inertial dynamics, due to the one-body dissipation mechanism alone. This finding justifies the validity of using the overdamped collective motion approach and to some extent the main assumptions in statistical models of fission. This conclusion is robust with respect to the nuclear energy density functional used. The configurations and interactions left out of the present theory framework only increase the role of the dissipative couplings. An unexpected finding is varying the pairing strength within a quite large range has only minor effects on the dynamics. We find notable differences in the excitation energy sharing between the fission fragments in the cases of spontaneous and induced fission. With increasing initial excitation energy of the fissioning nucleus, more excitation energy is deposited in the heavy fragment, in agreement with experimental data on average neutron multiplicities.

Bulgac, Aurel↗

Information retrieval from wide-band meteorological data - An example

The methods proposed by Smith and Adelfang (1981) and Smith et al. (1982) are used to calculate probabilities over rectangles and sectors of the gust magnitude-gust length plane; probabilities over the same regions are also calculated from the observed distributions and a comparison is also presented to demonstrate the accuracy of the statistical model. These and other statistical results are calculated from samples of Jimsphere wind profiles at Cape Canaveral. The results are presented for a variety of wavelength bands, altitudes, and seasons. It is shown that wind perturbations observed in Jimsphere wind profiles in various wavelength bands can be analyzed by using digital filters. The relationship between gust magnitude and gust length is modeled with the bivariate gamma distribution. It is pointed out that application of the model to calculate probabilities over specific areas of the gust magnitude-gust length plane can be useful in aerospace design.

Adelfang, S. I.↗

Automatic Segmentation of the Eye in 3D Magnetic Resonance Imaging: A Novel Statistical Shape Model for Treatment Planning of Retinoblastoma

Purpose: Proper delineation of ocular anatomy in 3-dimensional (3D) imaging is a big challenge, particularly when developing treatment plans for ocular diseases. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is presently used in clinical practice for diagnosis confirmation and treatment planning for treatment of retinoblastoma in infants, where it serves as a source of information, complementary to the fundus or ultrasonographic imaging. Here we present a framework to fully automatically segment the eye anatomy for MRI based on 3D active shape models (ASM), and we validate the results and present a proof of concept to automatically segment pathological eyes. Methods and Materials: Manual and automatic segmentation were performed in 24 images of healthy children's eyes (3.29 ± 2.15 years of age). Imaging was performed using a 3-T MRI scanner. The ASM consists of the lens, the vitreous humor, the sclera, and the cornea. The model was fitted by first automatically detecting the position of the eye center, the lens, and the optic nerve, and then aligning the model and fitting it to the patient. We validated our segmentation method by using a leave-one-out cross-validation. The segmentation results were evaluated by measuring the overlap, using the Dice similarity coefficient (DSC) and the mean distance error. Results: We obtained a DSC of 94.90 ± 2.12% for the sclera and the cornea, 94.72 ± 1.89% for the vitreous humor, and 85.16 ± 4.91% for the lens. The mean distance error was 0.26 ± 0.09 mm. The entire process took 14 seconds on average per eye. Conclusion: We provide a reliable and accurate tool that enables clinicians to automatically segment the sclera, the cornea, the vitreous humor, and the lens, using MRI. We additionally present a proof of concept for fully automatically segmenting eye pathology. This tool reduces the time needed for eye shape delineation and thus can help clinicians when planning eye treatment and confirming the extent of the tumor.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

An integrated statistical-thermodynamic model for fission gas release and swelling in nuclear fuels

Here, we propose a new model for burst fission gas release induced by microcracking in ceramic nuclear fuels such as uranium dioxide. The model stipulates that the densities of defects in the fuel material, such as microcracks and fission gas bubbles on grain boundaries, evolve in accordance with the second law of thermodynamics. Central to the model is the notion of an effective temperature, conjugate to the configurational entropy of the fuel material, and directly linked to the burnup. The model predicts that microcracking, driven by the internal stress state of the fuel material, reduces the bubble storage capacity of grain boundaries, and accounts for burst fission gas release during rapid temperature transients that simulate power transients, reactor startup, and loss-of-coolant accident conditions.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗