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NASA NTRS2020

Riley County Water Resources Project Summary - Comparing Runoff Curve Calculation Methods to Inform Local Resiliency Initiatives in Riley County, Kansas

Riley County, Kansas, has observed increased levels of flooding, potentially due to changes in land use/land cover (LULC) and seasonal vegetation variation. This study contrasts two methods of generating runoff curve numbers (CN) from 2006-2020. (1) The traditional Soil Conservation Service CN calculation method uses a look-up table and tracked LULC to determine runoff changes. These tables allow for land cover-specific CN and account for various farming techniques but lack flexibility in calculations for various seasons or plant health. (2) A dynamic method employs normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) compiled over the rainy season each year to calculate CN using seasonal vegetation. This method allows for a more precise analysis of runoff variability within and between rainy seasons because it can be updated with greater temporal detail and captures higher spatial resolutions by using NDVI as a proxy for LULC. This study further uses inputs from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) National Land Cover Database (NLCD), the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Cropland Data Layer, and Landsat imagery to create more precise LULC raster datasets including both urban cover and crop-specific land use and curve number maps of the area. Results can guide decision makers in the City of Manhattan, Riley County Department of Planning and Development, Riley County Conservation District, the Kansas Forest Service, and the Kansas Department of Health and Environment toward informed decisions on resiliency strategies to address future flooding.

DEVELOP Project Summary↗

DOE OSTI2020

Potential Suitability of Subirrigation for Field Crops in the U.S. Midwest

Subirrigation through subsurface tile drains has potential to increase crop yields and improve water quality in tile-drained landscapes, but it has not been widely implemented. Identifying locations with high potential suitability for subirrigation may help the planning and implementation of this practice. In this study, we developed a fuzzy rating system for subirrigation suitability using the Gridded Soil Survey Geographic Database (gSSURGO). Maps of the fuzzy rating system identified locations of high potential suitability for subirrigation and highlighted physiographic regions highly conducive to the practice. We identified 78,500 km2, about 9%, of agricultural land in the Midwest with high potential suitability for subirrigation where onsite investigation may be targeted. The largest areas of high potential suitability were found in Minnesota, Illinois, and Indiana. Results from the fuzzy rating analysis are provided to the public through three channels: a downloadable data repository, map service, and web map tool. Ultimately, this study can facilitate the adoption of subirrigation by highlighting areas where subirrigation may potentially be a viable practice.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

New insights into the drainage of inundated ice-wedge polygons using fundamental hydrologic principles

Abstract. The pathways and timing of drainage from the inundated centers of ice-wedge polygons in a warming climate have important implications for carbon flushing, advective heat transport, and transitions from methane to carbon dioxide dominated emissions. Here, we expand on previous research using a recently developed analytical model of drainage from a low-centered polygon. Specifically, we perform (1) a calibration to field data identifying necessary model refinements and (2) a rigorous model sensitivity analysis that expands on previously published indications of polygon drainage characteristics. This research provides intuition on inundated polygon drainage by presenting the first in-depth analysis of drainage within a polygon based on hydrogeological first principles. We verify a recently developed analytical solution of polygon drainage through a calibration to a season of field measurements. Due to the parsimony of the model, providing the potential that it could fail, we identify the minimum necessary refinements that allow the model to match water levels measured in a low-centered polygon. We find that (1) the measured precipitation must be increased by a factor of around 2.2, and (2) the vertical soil hydraulic conductivity must decrease with increasing thaw depth. Model refinement (1) accounts for runoff from rims into the ice-wedge polygon pond during precipitation events and possible rain gauge undercatch, while refinement (2) accounts for the decreasing permeability of deeper soil layers. The calibration to field measurements supports the validity of the model, indicating that it is able to represent ice-wedge polygon drainage dynamics. We then use the analytical solution in non-dimensional form to provide a baseline for the effects of polygon aspect ratios (radius to thaw depth) and coefficient of hydraulic conductivity anisotropy (horizontal to vertical hydraulic conductivity) on drainage pathways and temporal depletion of ponded water from inundated ice-wedge polygon centers. By varying the polygon aspect ratio, we evaluate the relative effect of polygon size (width), inter-annual increases in active-layer thickness, and seasonal increases in thaw depth on drainage. The results of our sensitivity analysis rigorously confirm a previous analysis indicating that most drainage through the active layer occurs along an annular region of the polygon center near the rims. This has important implications for transport of nutrients (such as dissolved organic carbon) and advection of heat towards ice-wedge tops. We also provide a comprehensive investigation of the effect of polygon aspect ratio and anisotropy on drainage timing and patterns, expanding on previously published research. Our results indicate that polygons with large aspect ratios and high anisotropy will have the most distributed drainage, while polygons with large aspect ratios and low anisotropy will have their drainage most focused near their periphery and will drain most slowly. Polygons with small aspect ratios and high anisotropy will drain most quickly. These results, based on parametric investigation of idealized scenarios, provide a baseline for further research considering the geometric and hydraulic complexities of ice-wedge polygons.

Harp, Dylan R. (ORCID:0000000197778000)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Data from: "Growth strategies and threshold responses to water deficit modulate effects of warming on tree seedlings from forest to alpine"

This data package contains data that were used to support conclusions drawn in “Growth strategies and threshold responses to water deficit modulate effects of warming on tree seedlings from forest to alpine”, by Lazarus, Castanha et al. 2017. Data were collected at field sites within the Alpine Treeline Warming Experiment (ATWE) on Niwot Ridge, Colorado, USA, and at the U.S. Geological Survey laboratory located in Boise, Idaho. This archive contains comma-separated-values (.csv) files, as well as the same files in Microsoft Excel (.xlsx) format, which can be opened by either Microsoft Excel, R, or any simple text editor program. There are two types of geospatial data files: .kml and ESRI shapefiles (.shp). The kml files contain placemarks, which can be opened by Google Earth, or Google Maps. The ESRI shapefiles can be opened by any geographic information system application that can read shapefiles, including ESRI's entire ArcGIS suite, and QGIS. We asked whether and how tree species differences in response to water deficit relates to their establishment along the gradient from forest to alpine. To do this, we compared growth and moisture stress responses in first-year seedlings of three species planted in common gardens subject to a factorial of heating and watering treatments below, at, and above tree line. This combination of an elevation gradient alongside warming and watering treatments enabled us to observe species differences in seedling responses to a broad set of climatic conditions.Entire seedlings were harvested at c. 3- and again at 9 weeks of age following germination/emergence in the experimental plots, and we then measured dry mass (DM) of above and belowground parts, root length, root mass fraction (RMF), relative growth rates (RGRs) from seed to 3 weeks and from 3 to 9 weeks, turgor-loss point (TLP), and photosynthetic WUE (as δ13C). Also included in this dataset (but not described in the manuscript) are measures of specific leaf area (SLA) and other variables generated by pressure-volume curves (saturated water content, osmotic potential at full turgor, elastic modulus).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Increased Arctic NO3− Availability as a Hydrogeomorphic Consequence of Permafrost Degradation and Landscape Drying

Climate-driven permafrost thaw alters the strongly coupled carbon and nitrogen cycles within the Arctic tundra, influencing the availability of limiting nutrients including nitrate (NO3−). Researchers have identified two primary mechanisms that increase nitrogen and NO3− availability within permafrost soils: (1) the ‘frozen feast’, where previously frozen organic material becomes available as it thaws, and (2) ‘shrubification’, where expansion of nitrogen-fixing shrubs promotes increased soil nitrogen. Through the synthesis of original and previously published observational data, and the application of multiple geospatial approaches, this study investigates and highlights a third mechanism that increases NO3− availability: the hydrogeomorphic evolution of polygonal permafrost landscapes. Permafrost thaw drives changes in microtopography, increasing the drainage of topographic highs, thus increasing oxic conditions that promote NO3− production and accumulation. We extrapolate relationships between NO3− and soil moisture in elevated topographic features within our study area and the broader Alaskan Coastal Plain and investigate potential changes in NO3− availability in response to possible hydrogeomorphic evolution scenarios of permafrost landscapes. These approximations indicate that such changes could increase Arctic tundra NO3− availability by ~250–1000%. Thus, hydrogeomorphic changes that accompany continued permafrost degradation in polygonal permafrost landscapes will substantially increase soil pore water NO3− availability and boost future fertilization and productivity in the Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2014

Spring Hydrology Determines Summer Net Carbon Uptake in Northern Ecosystems

Increased photosynthetic activity and enhanced seasonal CO2 exchange of northern ecosystems have been observed from a variety of sources including satellite vegetation indices (such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index; NDVI) and atmospheric CO2 measurements. Most of these changes have been attributed to strong warming trends in the northern high latitudes (greater than or equal to 50N). Here we analyze the interannual variation of summer net carbon uptake derived from atmospheric CO2 measurements and satellite NDVI in relation to surface meteorology from regional observational records. We find that increases in spring precipitation and snow pack promote summer net carbon uptake of northern ecosystems independent of air temperature effects. However, satellite NDVI measurements still show an overall benefit of summer photosynthetic activity from regional warming and limited impact of spring precipitation. This discrepancy is attributed to a similar response of photosynthesis and respiration to warming and thus reduced sensitivity of net ecosystem carbon uptake to temperature. Further analysis of boreal tower eddy covariance CO2 flux measurements indicates that summer net carbon uptake is positively correlated with early growing-season surface soil moisture, which is also strongly affected by spring precipitation and snow pack based on analysis of satellite soil moisture retrievals. This is attributed to strong regulation of spring hydrology on soil respiration in relatively wet boreal and arctic ecosystems. These results document the important role of spring hydrology in determining summer net carbon uptake and contrast with prevailing assumptions of dominant cold temperature limitations to high-latitude ecosystems. Our results indicate potentially stronger coupling of boreal/arctic water and carbon cycles with continued regional warming trends.

Carbon Uptake↗

DOE OSTI2021

3D Seismic Anatomy of a Watershed Reveals Climate–Topography Coupling That Drives Water Flowpaths and Bedrock Weathering

To investigate how bedrock transforms to soil, we mapped the topography of the interface demarcating onset of weathering under an east-west trending shale watershed in the Valley and Ridge province in the U.S.A. Using wave-equation travel-time tomography from a seismic array of >4000 geophones, we obtained a 3D P-wave velocity (Vp) model that resolves structures ~20 m below land surface (mbls). The depth of mobile soil and the onset of dissolution of chlorite roughly match Vp = 600 m/s and Vp = 2700 m/s, respectively. Chlorite dissolution initiates porosity growth in the shale matrix. Depth to the 2700 m/s contour is greater under the N- as compared to S-facing hillslopes and under sub-planar as compared to concave-up land surfaces. Broadly, the geometries of the ‘soil’ and ‘chlorite’ Vp contours are consistent with the calculated potential for shear fracture opening under weak regional compression. However, this calculated fracture potential does not consistently explain observations related to N- vs. S-facing aspect nor fracture density observed by borehole televiewer. Apparently, regional compression is only a secondary influence on Vp: the primary driver of P-wave slowing in the upper layers of this catchment is topographic control of reactive water flowpaths and their integrated effects on weathering. Here, the Vp result is best explained as the long-term integrated effect of groundwater flow-induced geochemical weathering of shale in response to climate-driven patterns of micro- and macro-topography.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Permafrost Promotes Shallow Groundwater Flow and Warmer Headwater Streams

Abstract The presence of permafrost influences the flow paths of water through Arctic landscapes and thereby has the potential to impact stream discharge and thermal regimes. Observations from 11 headwater streams in Alaska showed that July water temperatures were higher in catchments with more near‐surface permafrost. We apply a fully coupled cryohydrology model to investigate if the impact of permafrost on flow path depth could cause the same pattern in temperatures of groundwater discharging from hillslopes to streams. The model simulates surface energy and water balances, snow, and subsurface water and energy balances for two‐dimensional hillslope model cases with varying permafrost extent. We find that hillslopes with continuous permafrost have more shallow flow paths and twice as high rates of evapotranspiration, compared to hillslopes with no permafrost. For our simulated cases, 6.7% of the horizontal water flux moves through the top organic soil layers when there is continuous permafrost, while only 0.5% moves through organic layers without permafrost. The deeper flow paths in permafrost‐free simulations buffer seasonal temperature extremes, so that summer groundwater discharge temperatures are highest with continuous permafrost. Our results suggest that permafrost thawing alters groundwater flow paths and can lead to decreases in summer stream temperatures and reductions in evapotranspiration in headwater catchments. These changes are of potential importance for stream biotic components of ecosystems, however, the full impact remains unknown.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Redox potential in Typha-dominated tidal brackish marsh, PIE LTER, Plum Island Sound, MA, 2023

This dataset includes soil redox potential measurements collected at multiple depths within a tidal brackish wetland in the upper estuary of the Plum Island Ecosystems Long-Term Ecological Research site (PIE LTER), Plum Island Sound, Newbury, Massachusetts (MA). Measurements were taken to evaluate temporal variation in redox potential in relation to hydrological events at three replicate locations. Data were recorded every 5 minutes using a Campbell Scientific Volt116 connected to a CR6 datalogger with SWAP instrument redox probes (ORP-30-4-B) and reference electrodes. Measurements were made at the AmeriFlux site US-PLo at four soil depths (5, 10, 15, and 30 cm). The file redox_soiltemp_2023.csv contains temperature-corrected redox values and soil temperature following Silva-Machado et al. (2024). Metadata files redox_soiltemp_dd.csv and redox_soiltemp_2023_flmd.csv provide detailed descriptions of variables and site locations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modeling the impact of extreme weather events and future climate on the radiologically contaminated sites of Enewetak Atoll

Enewetak Atoll underwent 43 historical nuclear tests from 1948 to 1958, including the first hydrogen bomb test, resulting in a substantial nuclear material fallout contaminating the Atoll and the lagoon waters. The radionuclide fallout material deposited in lagoon sediments and land soil will remain for decades to come. With intensifying climate and extreme weather events, the possibility of redistribution of deposited radionuclide material has become a great concern. This study uses a numerical modeling approach to estimate the potential elevated radionuclide concentrations that can be distributed during storm events under current and future climates. We simulated three historical storm scenarios that are most likely to impact Atoll’s environment and remobilize the radionuclide-bound sediments. WRF-ARW was used to reconstruct these storm scenarios under current year (2015) and future year (2090) climates. Storm-induced ocean hydrodynamics conditions were generated using FVCOM. FVCOM-ICM was externally coupled to simulate the fate and transport of radionuclides. Given that the 239 Pu is the largest inventory of the lagoon and Atoll islands, the model results show the highest average 239 Pu concentration that an island may be exposed to is 3.25E-4 Bq/m 3 (becquerel per cubic meters), which is an increase of 84 times the average baseline/existing 239 Pu concentration without the storm conditions. The overall increase in 239 Pu average over all the islands of Atoll is about 20 folds relative to the baseline concentration. Despite the high relative increase ratios, the significantly low activity concentrations may not pose an immediate exposure risk. However, due to the limitations of the study and uncertainties/biases in the historical data used, further research supported by field surveys to better characterize the current contamination level may be needed to make more accurate predictions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1977

Application of remote sensing in South Dakota to provide accurate inventories of agricultural crops, enhance contrast in photographic products, monitor rangeland habitat loss, map Aspen, and prepare hydrogeologic surveys

The author has identified the following significant results. Digital analysis of LANDSAT CCT's indicated that two discrete spectral background zones occurred among the five soil zone. K-CLASS classification of corn revealed that accuracy increased when two background zones were used, compared to the classification of corn stratified by five soil zones. Selectively varying film type developer and development time produces higher contract in reprocessed imagery. Interpretation of rangeland and cropped land data from 1968 aerial photography and 1976 LANDSAT imagery indicated losses in rangeland habitat. Thermal imagery was useful in locating potential sources of sub-surface water and geothermal energy, estimating evapotranspiration, and inventorying the land.

Myers, V. I.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Halophytes Energy Feedstocks: Back to Our Roots

Of the Earth s landmass, approx.43% is arid or semi-arid, and 97% of the Earth s water is seawater. Halophytes are salt-tolerant plants (micro and macro) that can prosper in seawater or brackish waters and are common feedstocks for fuel and food (fuel-food feedstocks) in depressed countries. Two types, broadly classed as coastal and desert, can be found in marshes, coastal planes, inland lakes, and deserts. Major arid or semi-arid halophyte agriculture problems include pumping and draining the required high volumes of irrigation water from sea or ocean sources. Also, not all arid or semi-arid lands are suitable for crops. Benefits of halophyte agriculture include freeing up arable land and freshwater resources, cleansing the environment, decontaminating soils, desalinating brackish waters, and carbon sequestration. Sea and ocean halophyte agriculture problems include storms, transport, and diffuse harvesting. Benefits include available nutrients, ample water, and Sun. Careful attention to details and use of saline agriculture fuel feedstocks are required to prevent anthropogenic disasters. It is shown that the potential for fuel-food feedstock halophyte production is high; based on test plot data, it could supply 421.4 Quad, or 94% of the 2004 world energy consumption and sequester carbon, with major impact on the Triangle of Conflicts.

Hendricks, Robert C.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Development and Testing of a Friction-Based Post-Installable Sensor for Subsea Fiber-Optic Monitoring Systems

This paper presents the design and development of a friction-based coupling device for a fiber-optic monitoring system that can be deployed on existing subsea structures. This paper provides a summary of the design concept, prototype development, prototype performance testing, and design refinements of the device. The results of the laboratory testing of the first prototype performed at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Johnson Space Center (JSC) are included in this paper. Limitations of the initial design were identified and future design improvements were proposed. These new features will enhance the coupling of the device and improve the monitoring system measurement capabilities. A major challenge of a post-installed instrumentation monitoring system is to ensure adequate coupling between the instruments and the structure of interest for reliable measurements. Friction-based coupling devices have the potential to overcome coupling limitations caused by marine growth and soil contamination on subsea structures, flowlines or risers. The work described in this paper investigates the design of a friction-based coupling device (friction clamp), which is applicable for pipelines and structures that are suspended in the water column and those that are resting on the seabed. The monitoring elements consist of fiber-optic sensors that are bonded to a metal clamshell with a high-friction coating. The friction clamp has a single hinge design to facilitate the operation of the clamp and dual rows of opposing fasteners to distribute the clamping force on the structure. The friction clamp can be installed by divers in shallow depths or by remotely operated vehicles in deep-water applications. NASA-JSC was involved in the selection and testing of the friction coating, and in the design and testing of the prototype clamp device. Four-inch diameter and eight-inch diameter sub-scale friction clamp prototypes were built and tested to evaluate the strain measuring capabilities of the design under different loading scenarios. The testing revealed some limitations of the initial design concept, and subsequent refinements were explored to improve the measurement performance of the system. This study was part of a collaboration between NASA-JSC and Astro Technology, Inc. within a study called Clear Gulf. The primary objective of the Clear Gulf study is to develop advanced instrumentation technologies that will improve operational safety and reduce the risk of hydrocarbon spillage. NASA provided unique insights, expansive test facilities, and technical expertise to advance these technologies that would benefit the environment, the public, and commercial industries.

Bentley, Nicole↗

NASA NTRS2017

Development and Testing of a Friction-Based Post-Installable Sensor for Subsea Fiber-Optic Monitoring System

Bentley, Nicole L.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Low Cost Micro-Spectrometer for Resource Mapping on Mars

Scientific measurements within craters and along steep embankments on Mars pose extreme challenges since astronauts and rovers cannot access them. However, these areas offer the potential for thegreatest scientific return. NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) has invented a deployable wireless micro-spectrometer [1-13] capable of accessing thosechallenging areas and, using telemetry, send measurements to a receiver safely outside those extreme environments. A prototype of the micro-spectrometer concept was fabricated and successfullytested for measurement of dopamine as a neural probe [14]. The bullet-sized micro-spectrometer concept can be designed for deployment by an astronaut, a rover, an aerial drone, or a lander, and the measurements broadcasted back to a receiver [13,15,16]. This device can also be installed on rovertires, under the astronaut’s boots, or a cane stick. The bullet-like consumable micro-spectrometer can penetrate soil to spectrally identify the components ofthe soil, such as water or minerals. The signals of the soil assay data are transmitted to a mother station through a telemetry system. The LaRC developed micro-spectrometer bullet consists of micro-spectrometer optics with an all imbedded burst-mode LED UV light source, a super-capacitor with control electronics, and telemetry electronics. Prototypes have been fabricated to demonstrate spectral assay of soil components. Further maturation of this technology would be necessary for demonstration on Mars. Future work includes a potential R&D program that includes other NASA Centers and industry partners interested in developing a business case that requires knowledge of the locations of extraterrestrial ice, for instance.

micro-spectrometer, mineral assay, resource mappin↗

DOE OSTI2022

Zinc speciation and desorption kinetics in a mining waste impacted tropical soil amended with phosphate

Mining is an important component of the Brazilian economy. However, it may also contribute to environmental problems such as the pollution of soils with zinc and other potentially toxic metals. Our objective was to evaluate changes in the chemical speciation and mobility of Zn in a soil amended with phosphate. Soil samples were collected from a deactivated mining area in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, and amended with NH 4 H 2 PO 4 saturated with deionized water to 70 % of maximum water retention and incubated at 25 ± 2 °C in open containers for 60 days. The soil was chemically and mineralogically characterized, and sequential extraction, desorption kinetics, and speciation were carried out using synchrotron bulk-sample and micro–X-ray Absorption Near-Edge Structure (XANES/μ-XANES) spectroscopy at the Zn K-edge, and X-ray fluorescence microprobe analysis (μ-XRF). The combination of μ-XRF and μ-XANES techniques made it possible to identify Zn hotspots in the main species formed after phosphate remediation. The best fit combination for bulk XANES and μ-XANES was observed in Zn-montmorillonite, Zn-kerolite, Zn-ferrihydrite, and gahnite. In the course of phosphate treatment, gahnite, Zn layered double hydroxides (Zn-LDH), Zn3(PO4), and ZnO were identified by bulk XANES, while Zn-ferrihydrite, Zn-montmorillonite, and scholzite were identified by μ-XANES. Zinc in the phosphate-amended soil had the strongest partial correlations (r' > 0.05) with Ni, Co, Fe, Cr, Mn, Si, P, Cd, Pb, and Cd, while the unamended soil showed the strongest correlation with Cu, Pb, Fe, and Si. The application of NH 4 H 2 PO 4 altered Zn speciation and favored an increase in Zn desorption. Here, the most available Zn contents after phosphate amendment were correlated with the release of exchangeable Zn fractions, associated with carbonate and organic matter.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Active virus-host interactions at sub-freezing temperatures in Arctic peat soil

Abstract Background Winter carbon loss in northern ecosystems is estimated to be greater than the average growing season carbon uptake and is primarily driven by microbial decomposers. Viruses modulate microbial carbon cycling via induced mortality and metabolic controls, but it is unknown whether viruses are active under winter conditions (anoxic and sub-freezing temperatures). Results We used stable isotope probing (SIP) targeted metagenomics to reveal the genomic potential of active soil microbial populations under simulated winter conditions, with an emphasis on viruses and virus-host dynamics. Arctic peat soils from the Bonanza Creek Long-Term Ecological Research site in Alaska were incubated under sub-freezing anoxic conditions with H 2 18 O or natural abundance water for 184 and 370 days. We sequenced 23 SIP-metagenomes and measured carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) efflux throughout the experiment. We identified 46 bacterial populations (spanning 9 phyla) and 243 viral populations that actively took up 18 O in soil and respired CO 2 throughout the incubation. Active bacterial populations represented only a small portion of the detected microbial community and were capable of fermentation and organic matter degradation. In contrast, active viral populations represented a large portion of the detected viral community and one third were linked to active bacterial populations. We identified 86 auxiliary metabolic genes and other environmentally relevant genes. The majority of these genes were carried by active viral populations and had diverse functions such as carbon utilization and scavenging that could provide their host with a fitness advantage for utilizing much-needed carbon sources or acquiring essential nutrients. Conclusions Overall, there was a stark difference in the identity and function of the active bacterial and viral community compared to the unlabeled community that would have been overlooked with a non-targeted standard metagenomic analysis. Our results illustrate that substantial active virus-host interactions occur in sub-freezing anoxic conditions and highlight viruses as a major community-structuring agent that likely modulates carbon loss in peat soils during winter, which may be pivotal for understanding the future fate of arctic soils' vast carbon stocks.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data from: Coupled machine learning-ecosystem ensemble models substantially improve predictions of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) fluxes from US croplands

Nitrous oxide (N₂O) is a potent and persistent greenhouse gas, with rising atmospheric concentrations driven in part by inefficient use of synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizers in agriculture. Predicting soil N₂O emissions is challenging due to high spatial and temporal variability arising from complex soil biogeochemical processes. Process-based ecosystem models and standalone machine learning (ML) approaches without extensive site-specific calibration often miss high emission episodes. Here, we show how an Ensemble Modeling System (EMS) based on outputs from an ensemble of ecosystem models coupled to an ensemble of ML models can improve predictions and understanding of N2O fluxes from US cropland. Trained and validated on approximately 12,000 N2O chamber measurements at 17 U.S. Midwest sites (six crops, 35 management practices), the EMS accurately predicted daily fluxes of N2O at both training (R² = 0.84, RMSE = 16.4 g N ha⁻¹ d⁻¹) and held-out testing sites (R² = 0.84, RMSE = 6.2 g N ha⁻¹ d⁻¹). Analyses identified six dominant N₂O drivers: soil organic carbon (SOC), NH₄⁺, NO₃⁻, water-filled pore space (WFPS), soil temperature, and biomass production. Wet, warm soils produced large N₂O peaks only with sufficient SOC and mineral N; in low-SOC soils, fluxes remained low. Incorporating these drivers into process-based models might significantly improve their predictive capacity. The EMS demonstrates a strong potential to predict N₂O fluxes at unseen sites, enabling more reliable regional inventories, improved gap-filling where measurements are sparse, and enhanced understanding of mechanisms to advance targeted mitigation strategies in food, feed, and bioenergy crops.

agricultural sciences↗