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At least 415 records · Page 23

A Bayesian Deep Learning Approach to Near-Term Climate Prediction

Since model bias and associated initialization shock are serious shortcomings that reduce prediction skills in state-of-the-art decadal climate prediction efforts, we pursue a complementary machine-learning-based approach to climate prediction. The example problem setting we consider consists of predicting natural variability of the North Atlantic sea surface temperature on the interannual timescale in the pre-industrial control simulation of the Community Earth System Model. While previous works have considered the use of recurrent networks such as convolutional LSTMs and reservoir computing networks in this and other similar problem settings, we currently focus on the use of feedforward convolutional networks. In particular, we find that a feedforward convolutional network with a Densenet architecture is able to outperform a convolutional LSTM in terms of predictive skill. Next, we go on to consider a probabilistic formulation of the same network based on Stein variational gradient descent and find that in addition to providing useful measures of predictive uncertainty, the probabilistic (Bayesian) version improves on its deterministic counterpart in terms of predictive skill. Finally, we characterize the reliability of the ensemble of machine learning models obtained in the probabilistic setting by using analysis tools developed in the context of ensemble numerical weather prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Fluorescence-Based Aqueous Phosphate Sensing Using Eu(cpboda)(DMF) 2

Fluorescence-based phosphate sensing using phosphate-sensitive phosphors is a promising approach for in situ monitoring of phosphate pollution in waterways and reservoirs. To date, the most sensitive phosphor developed for this purpose is Tb(cpboda)(DMF) 2 , where cpboda = (3,3'-((5-Carboxy-1,3-phenylene)bis(oxy))dibenzoic acid). In this study, we further improve this sensitivity by replacing the Tb 3+ ions with Eu 3+ ions to make Eu(cpboda)(DMF) 2 and find concentration-independent phosphate-sensitivity of 1570 ± 120, which is ≈8× more sensitive than the Tb-version. This improvement is attributed to Eu 3+ having a hypersensitive transition, while Tb 3+ does not. Additionally, we characterize the phosphor’s optical properties, photodegradation, and water solubility. We find that the phosphor presents challenges with regards to both photodegradation and solubility, as it is found to be poorly soluble in water and is quickly photodegraded under UV radiation <360 nm. However, these obstacles can, in theory, be overcome with the use of direct excitation of the Eu 3+ ions at 394 nm and careful design of an analysis instrument to reduce concentration variations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Intrabasin Comparison of the Microbiology and Geochemistry of Produced Fluid From Hydraulically Fractured Wells in the Permian Region

The Permian Basin is the highest producing oil reservoir in the United States. Hydrocarbon extraction methods in this region are often associated with frac hits, or interwell communication events where an established well is affected by the pumping of fracture fluid into a new well. Our previous work revealed a geochemical signal indicating the presence of frac hits in the Permian Basin. We returned to this area with the goal of expanding our understanding of subsurface interactions common in this region. To do so, we collected produced water from 25 unique sites across the Permian Basin, 10 of which had previously been characterized during an active frac hit. For each sample, we measured the pH, alkalinity, geochemistry, microbial load, and microbial community composition. Permian Basin produced water is characterized by higher sulfate and lower total dissolved solids (TDS) concentrations compared to other regions. Interestingly, wells impacted by frac hits have a geochemical profile that resembles that of fracture fluid, with both lowered sulfate and lowered TDS concentrations compared to unaffected wells. Due to the year-long recovery window between sample collection periods, we anticipate that all our data will be characterized by the typical high sulfate, low TDS concentrations.

geochemistry↗

Position-specific carbon isotope analysis of serine by gas chromatography/Orbitrap mass spectrometry, and an application to plant metabolism

Position-specific 13 C/ 12 C ratios within amino acids remain largely unexplored in environmental samples due to methodological limitations. We hypothesized that natural-abundance isotope patterns in serine may serve as a proxy for plant metabolic fluxes including photorespiration. Here we describe an Orbitrap method optimized for the position-specific carbon isotope analysis of serine to test our hypothesis and discuss the generalizability of this method to other amino acids. Position-specific carbon isotope ratios of serine were measured using a Thermo Scientific™ Q Exactive™ GC Orbitrap™. Amino acids were hydrolyzed from Arabidopsis biomass, purified from potential matrix interferences, and derivatized alongside standards. Derivatized serine (N,O-bis(trifluoroacetyl)methyl ester) was isolated using gas chromatography, trapped in a reservoir, and purged into the electron ionization source over tens of minutes, producing fragment ions containing different combinations of atoms from the serine-derivative molecule. The 13 C/ 12 C ratios of fragments with monoisotopic masses of 110.0217, 138.0166, and 165.0037 Da were monitored in the mass analyzer and used to calculate position-specific δ 13 C values relative to a working standard. This methodology constrains position-specific δ 13 C values for nanomole amounts of serine isolated from chemically complex mixtures. The δ 13 C values of fragment ions of serine were characterized with ≤1‰ precisions, leading to propagated standard errors of 0.7–5‰ for each carbon position. Position-specific δ 13 C values differed by up to ca 28 ± 5‰ between serine molecules hydrolyzed from plants grown under contrasting pCO 2 , selected to promote different fluxes through photosynthesis and photorespiration. The method was validated using pure serine standards characterized offline. Here this study presents the first Orbitrap-based measurements of natural-abundance, position-specific carbon isotope variation in an amino acid isolated from a biological matrix. We present a method for the precise characterization of isotope ratios in serine and propose applications probing metabolism in plants. We discuss the potential for extending these approaches to other amino acids, paving the way for novel applications.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Final Report DE-FE0031785 Mohsen Ahmadian, Ph.D. Demonstration of Proof of Concept of a Multiphysics Approach for Real-Time Remote Monitoring of Dynamic Changes in Pressure and Salinity in Hydraulically Fractured Networks

Hydraulic fracturing has evolved into a multistep process with varying flow rates, carrier fluids (e.g., gel or slickwater), proppant loadings, and proppant grain sizes. As a result, primary recovery from a hydraulically fractured tight-oil reservoir is often a tiny fraction of the original oil in place, ranging between 5 and 10%. As stated in the FOA1990, “part of this problem is due to the inability of current well completion processes to effectively stimulate the entire reservoir volume in contact with the wellbore. Innovative technologies are needed that can help improve the effectiveness of reservoir completion methods, maximize stimulated reservoir volumes, and optimize recovery over the entire producing life span of a well”. We first need to enhance the current fracture diagnostic techniques to improve a well-completion design. However, detecting and delineating a subsurface hydraulic fracture is extremely difficult because the induced fracture network is only fractionally propped, and these propped fractures are generally very thin. Microseismic and tiltmeter monitoring techniques can provide information on the fracture extent but provide little or no information on the movement and final distribution of proppant or production fluids. On the other hand, electromagnetic (EM) imaging has shown the capability to monitor proppant distribution throughout the fracture area, especially in the presence of Electrically Active Proppants (EAPs). A previous EM survey of hydraulic fracturing at the Devine Fracture Pilot Site (DFPS) and subsequent EM code developments demonstrated this survey as a robust technique to remotely interrogate the extent of the EAP-filled hydraulic fracture during its propagation. The objectives of the project were threefold: (1) to capitalize on the material properties of an EAP to demonstrate remote monitoring of relative changes in pressure, pressure, and flow that are commonly encountered during production from a hydraulically fractured reservoir; (2) to evaluate EM imaging tools, to achieve Objective 1 in near real-time; and (3) to develop a multi-physics joint inversion approach to precisely predict flow patterns and physiochemical changes within an EAP-filled fracture network. This research project was built upon our previous work at the Devine Test Site managed by the Bureau of Economic Geology (BEG) at The University of Texas at Austin (UT-Austin). It also leveraged a significant investment from the Advanced Energy Consortium (AEC) to address the DOE's interest in subsurface flow, containment, and characterization by multiple signals. This three-year and three-month project succeeded in demonstrating the feasibility of a real-time dynamic fluid flow mapping technique at Technology Readiness Level 5 (TRL5) by utilizing a commercially available surface-based Controlled-Source Electromagnetic (CSEM) method (Objectives 1, 2). We demonstrated that injections into an EAP-filled fracture could be successfully coupled with real-time electric field measurements on the surface, leading to remote monitoring of dynamic changes within the EAP-filled fracture. Furthermore, the observed electric field in our study is influenced by bottomhole pressure, flow rate, and salinity, which is demonstrated by comparing these parameters with the electrical field potentials. EM simulations solely based on assumptions of fracture conductivity changes during injection did not reproduce the whole measured electric field magnitudes. Preliminary estimates showed that including Streaming Potential (SP) in our geophysical model is likely needed to reduce the simulation misfit.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Intrabasin Comparison of Produced Fluid From Hydraulically Fractured Wells in the Permian Region

The Permian Basin is the highest producing oil and gas reservoir in the United States. Hydrocarbon extraction methods in this region are often associated with frac hits, or interwell communication events where an established well is affected by the pumping of fracture fluid into a new well. Our previous work revealed a unique geochemical signal indicating the presence of frac hits in the Permian Basin. We returned to this area with the overall goal of expanding our understanding of the microbial and geochemical dynamics common in this region. To do so, we collected produced water from 25 unique sites across the Permian Basin, 10 of which had previously been characterized during an active frac hit with the rest being novel. For each sample, we measured the pH, alkalinity, geochemical composition, microbial load (qPCR), and microbial community composition (16S rRNA sequencing). Permian Basin produced water is characterized by higher sulfate and lower total dissolved solids (TDS) concentrations compared to other regions. Interestingly, wells impacted by frac hits have a geochemical profile that resembles that of fracture fluid, with both lowered sulfate and lowered TDS concentrations compared to unaffected wells in this region. Due to the year-long recovery window between sample collection periods, we anticipate that all of our data will be characterized by the typical high sulfate, low TDS concentrations.

environmental microbiology↗

Tuning the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) Observing Strategy for Solar System Science

Abstract The Vera C. Rubin Observatory is expected to start the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) in early to mid-2025. This multiband wide-field synoptic survey will transform our view of the solar system, with the discovery and monitoring of over five million small bodies. The final survey strategy chosen for LSST has direct implications on the discoverability and characterization of solar system minor planets and passing interstellar objects. Creating an inventory of the solar system is one of the four main LSST science drivers. The LSST observing cadence is a complex optimization problem that must balance the priorities and needs of all the key LSST science areas. To design the best LSST survey strategy, a series of operation simulations using the Rubin Observatory scheduler have been generated to explore the various options for tuning observing parameters and prioritizations. We explore the impact of the various simulated LSST observing strategies on studying the solar system’s small body reservoirs. We examine what are the best observing scenarios and review what are the important considerations for maximizing LSST solar system science. In general, most of the LSST cadence simulations produce ±5% or less variations in our chosen key metrics, but a subset of the simulations significantly hinder science returns with much larger losses in the discovery and light-curve metrics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Microbial Community and Functional Potential in the Midland Basin Reveal a Community Dominated by Both Thiosulfate and Sulfate-Reducing Microorganisms

The Permian Basin is the highest producing oil and gas reservoir in the United States. Hydrocarbon resources in this region are often accessed by unconventional extraction methods, including horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. Despite the importance of the Permian Basin, there is no publicly available microbiological data from this region. We completed an analysis of Permian produced water samples to understand the dynamics present in hydraulically fractured wells in this region. We analyzed produced water samples taken from 10 wells in the Permian region of the Midland Basin using geochemical measurements, 16S rRNA gene sequencing, and metagenomic sequencing. Compared to other regions, we found that Permian Basin produced water was characterized by higher sulfate and lower total dissolved solids (TDS) concentrations, with a median of 1,110 mg/L and 107,000 mg/L. Additionally, geochemical measurements revealed the presence of frac hits, or interwell communication events where an established well is affected by the pumping of fracturing fluid into a new well. The occurrence of frac hits was supported by correlations between the microbiome and the geochemical parameters. Our 16S rRNA gene sequencing identified a produced water microbiome characterized by anaerobic, halophilic, and sulfur reducing taxa. Interestingly, sulfate and thiosulfate reducing taxa including Halanaerobium, Orenia, Marinobacter, and Desulfohalobium were the most prevalent microbiota in most wells. We further investigated the metabolic potential of microorganisms in the Permian Basin with metagenomic sequencing. We recovered 15 metagenome assembled genomes (MAGs) from seven different samples representing 6 unique well sites. These MAGs corroborated the high presence of sulfate and thiosulfate reducing genes across all wells, especially from key taxa including Halanaerobium and Orenia. The observed microbiome composition and metabolic capabilities in conjunction with the high sulfate concentrations demonstrate a high potential for hydrogen sulfide production in the Permian Basin. Additionally, evidence of frac hits suggests the possibility for the exchange of microbial cells and/or genetic information between wells. This exchange would increase the likelihood of hydrogen sulfide production and has implications for the oil and gas industry.

16S RNA↗

Dissemination of blaNDM-5 and mcr-8.1 in carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae and Klebsiella quasipneumoniae in an animal breeding area in Eastern China

Animal farms have become one of the most important reservoirs of carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella spp. (CRK) owing to the wide usage of veterinary antibiotics. “One Health”-studies observing animals, the environment, and humans are necessary to understand the dissemination of CRK in animal breeding areas. Based on the concept of “One-Health,” 263 samples of animal feces, wastewater, well water, and human feces from 60 livestock and poultry farms in Shandong province, China were screened for CRK. Five carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae (CRKP) and three carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella quasipneumoniae (CRKQ) strains were isolated from animal feces, human feces, and well water. The eight strains were characterized by antimicrobial susceptibility testing, plasmid conjugation assays, whole-genome sequencing, and bioinformatics analysis. All strains carried the carbapenemase-encoding gene bla NDM-5 , which was flanked by the same core genetic structure (IS 5 - bla NDM-5 - ble MBL - trpF - dsbD -IS 26 -IS Kox3 ) and was located on highly related conjugative IncX3 plasmids. The colistin resistance gene mcr-8.1 was carried by three CRKP and located on self-transmissible IncFII(K)/IncFIA(HI1) and IncFII(pKP91)/IncFIA(HI1) plasmids. The genetic context of mcr-8.1 consisted of IS 903 - orf - mcr-8.1-copR-baeS-dgkA - orf -IS 903 in three strains. Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) analysis confirmed the clonal spread of CRKP carrying- bla NDM-5 and mcr-8.1 between two human workers in the same chicken farm. Additionally, the SNP analysis showed clonal expansion of CRKP and CRKQ strains from well water in different farms, and the clonal CRKP was clonally related to isolates from animal farms and a wastewater treatment plant collected in other studies in the same province. These findings suggest that CRKP and CRKQ are capable of disseminating via horizontal gene transfer and clonal expansion and may pose a significant threat to public health unless preventative measures are taken.

Yang, Chengxia↗

Porous Colloidal Nanoparticles as Injectable Multimodal Contrast Agents for Enhanced Geophysical Sensing

Injecting fluids into underground geologic structures is crucial for the development of long-term strategies for managing captured carbon and facilitating sustainable energy extraction operations. Here, we have previously reported that the injection of metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) into the subsurface can enhance seismic monitoring tools to track fluids and map complex structures, reduce risk, and verify containment in carbon storage reservoirs because of their absorption capacity of low-frequency seismic waves. Here, we demonstrate that water-based Cr/Zn/Zr MOF colloidal suspensions (nanofluids) are multimodal geophysical contrast agents that enhance near-wellbore logging tools. Based on experimental fluid-only measurements, MIL-101(Cr), ZIF-8, and UiO-66 nanofluids have distinct complex conductivity and/or low-field nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) signatures that are relevant to field-deployed technologies, implying the potential to enhance near-wellbore monitoring of CO 2 injection and associated processes with downhole logging tools. Small- and wide-angle X-ray scattering characterization of ~0.5 wt % MIL-101(Cr) suspensions confirmed phase stability and provided insight into the fractal nature of colloidal nanoparticles. Finally, low-field (2 MHz) NMR measurements of MIL-101(Cr) nanofluid injection into a prototypical Berea sandstone demonstrate how paramagnetic high-surface area MOFs may dominate the relaxation times of hydrogen-bearing fluids in porous geologic matrices, enhancing the mapping of near-surface and near-wellbore transport pathways and advancing sustainable subsurface energy technologies.

NMR↗

Chemically Enabled CO 2 -Enhanced Oil Recovery in Multi-Porosity, Hydrothermally Altered Carbonates in the Southern Michigan Basin (Final Technical Report)

This is the Final Technical Report for the project "Chemically Enabled CO 2 -Enhanced Oil Recovery in Multi-Porosity, Hydrothermally Altered Carbonates in the Southern Michigan Basin." Over the course of six years of collaboration between Battelle and project partners, all stated objectives of the program have been completed, including full geological characterization of the TBR trend (See companion report for Task2), laboratory and modeling experiments to determine the optimum composition and design of CO 2 -EOR operations in the TBR trend, execution of a field test of chemically-enhanced CO 2 in a TBR well, and integration of the data and learnings gathered during these efforts into a full-trend development plan. Detailed reporting on these activities, their outcomes, and implications for trend-wide development is provided in the report. This report and encompassed data will provide TBR field operators with detailed information on what worked, what did not work, and how to proceed with production optimization of their TBR assets using chemically-enhanced CO 2 -EOR. CO 2 -EOR is a relatively well understood and broadly implemented strategy for increasing incremental production across the oil and gas industry, but its application has been primarily focused on reservoirs with limited heterogeneity. The intention of this project was show first that the same physical mechanisms that improve recovery factors in homogeneous reservoirs (namely wettability alteration, viscosity alteration, oil swelling, and mobility control) are at play in heterogeneous reservoirs. This was proven by the project’s laboratory studies and dynamic simulations, with the potential exception of mobility control, which needs further study. The second intention was to demonstrate via direct field testing that CO 2 -EOR can work in a strongly heterogeneous reservoir. While the field test strategy implemented during this project did not succeed in producing oil, data gathered during the test sheds light on what may work for field operators who try chemically-enhanced CO 2 -EOR within their own reservoirs, significantly reducing the level of uncertainty carried by first-of-a-kind commercial efforts that could (and should) follow this test. Simultaneously, the project has identified several large-volume ethanol plants and other sources of CO 2 emissions in the region and provided a handrail that CO 2 emitters and field operators can leverage to capture, transport, and inject that CO 2 into their fields. This project has also shown that, in many cases, the economics of CO 2 -EOR in the TBR are attractive. And finally, by completing a project of this scope in the southern Michigan Basin, the project has contributed to the knowledge base and operational experience of field operators, state regulatory agencies, local service companies, and state universities, with CO 2 -EOR projects which should allow follow-on projects to proceed safely and efficiently.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Water and heat: New constraints on the evolution of the CV chondrite parent body

This paper focuses on the post-accretion history of CV3 chondrites, through a combination of petrographic and mineralogical characterization, magnetic measurements, spectral (Raman and Infrared) and thermo-gravimetric analysis of 31 meteorites (including 7 falls, 21 Antarctic and 3 non-Antarctic finds) spanning a wide metamorphic range. We classify the 21 Antarctic chondrites and the Bukhara fall into the CV Red , CV OxA , and CV OxB subgroups. We establish quantitative parameters relevant for this sub-classification. In comparison to CV Ox , CV Red chondrites are characterized by (i) a lower abundance of matrix, (ii) a higher abundance of metal, (iii) the presence of Ni-poor sulfides. In comparison to CV OxB , CV OxA are characterized by (i) similar matrix abundance, (ii) a higher abundance of metal, (iii) the presence of metal almost exclusively under the form of awaruite, (iv) lower Ni content of sulfides, (v) lower magnetic susceptibility and saturation remanence. In this work, both CV Ox (CV OxA and CV OxB ) and CV Red experienced aqueous alteration, and contain oxyhydroxides and phyllosilicates. We show that the abundance of these hydrated secondary minerals observed today in individual CV chondrites decreases with their peak metamorphic temperature. This is interpreted either as partial dehydration of these secondary minerals or limited hydration due to the rapid exhaustion of the water reservoir during parent body thermal metamorphism. Moreover, the lower abundance of oxyhydroxides (that have a lower thermal stability than phyllosilicates and may in large part postdate the peak of thermal metamorphism) in more metamorphosed CV chondrites is interpreted as lower availability of aqueous fluids during retrograde metamorphism in these meteorites. Lastly, we show that in comparison to CV OxB , CV OxA are systematically (i) more metamorphosed, (ii) less hydrated, (iii) depleted in ferromagnetic minerals, (iv) but enriched in metal in the form of secondary awaruite. CV OxA may be thermally metamorphosed CV OxB . CV Red are significantly different from CV Ox (matrix abundances, alteration products, opaque minerals), but span the same wide metamorphic range. This could be indicative of a laterally heterogeneous CV parent body, or suggest the existence of distinct parent bodies for CV Ox and CV Red chondrites.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Enhanced read resolution in reconfigurable memristive synapses for Spiking Neural Networks

Abstract The synapse is a key element circuit in any memristor-based neuromorphic computing system. A memristor is a two-terminal analog memory device. Memristive synapses suffer from various challenges including high voltage, SET or RESET failure, and READ margin issues that can degrade the distinguishability of stored weights. Enhancing READ resolution is very important to improving the reliability of memristive synapses. Usually, the READ resolution is very small for a memristive synapse with a 4-bit data precision. This work considers a step-by-step analysis to enhance the READ current resolution or the read current difference between two resistance levels for a current-controlled memristor-based synapse. An empirical model is used to characterize the $${\hbox {HfO}}_{2}$$ HfO 2 based memristive device. $$1\textrm{st}$$ 1 st and $$2\textrm{nd}$$ 2 nd stage device of our proposed synapse design can be scaled to enhance the READ current margin up to $$\sim$$ ∼ 4.3 $$\times$$ × and $$\sim$$ ∼ 21%, respectively. Moreover, READ current resolution can be enhanced with run-time adaptation techniques such as READ voltage scaling and body biasing. The READ voltage scaling and body biasing can improve the READ current resolution by about 46% and 15%, respectively. TENNLab’s neuromorphic computing framework is leveraged to evaluate the effect of READ current resolution on classification, control, and reservoir computing applications. Higher READ current resolution shows better accuracy than lower resolution even when facing different levels of read noise.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Utah FORGE: Phase 3 Magnetotelluric (MT) Data

New high-quality tensor MT data at 122 sites, including the vertical magnetic field and utilizing ultra-remote referencing, have been acquired over the Utah FORGE project area. The results will be used to delineate the densities of faults and fractures in crystalline basement rocks, to define the heat sources, and to derive baseline 3D resistivity structure for later MT monitoring of temporal changes in resistivity structure following well stimulation in the EGS reservoir. There are three files here related to Utah FORGE magnetotelluric (MT) data acquisition and processing. The FORGE MT EDIs zip file contains the observed MT responses in industry-standard EDI format. For each site, there is an EDI response file that utilized a local independent reference for noise cancellation, and a file that utilized a distant reference cancelling noise associated with the DC transmission line of the Delta IPP passing down the west side of Milford Valley. These two site files could be merged as appropriate. The FORGE Model Cell Center file contains the model volume of the 3D Forge MT inversion for characterizing the resistivity structure in the project area. It was derived using finite element inversion methodology described in Wannamaker et al, in the attached FORGE Phase3 Geophysics paper, from the MT observation EDI files. It is ASCII format (.dat) and entries are defined at top of the file in a simple x-y-z-Rho listing in UTM coordinates. The element layers drape the topography so the Rho value layers are not purely horizontal slices. This greatly simplifies the listing.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Fe Oxidation and Species Distribution at the Rock–Fluid Interface of Marcellus Shale Reacted with Hydraulic Fracturing Fluid

Hydraulic fracturing of shale reservoirs resulted in significant opportunity for increased oil and gas production in the United States. Rock-fluid interactions can cause mineral dissolution and precipitation reactions that lead to permeability changes in the shale matrix, which ultimately may affect transport pathways and hydrocarbon production. Understanding the distribution of secondary precipitates, such as barite and Fe(III) (hydro)oxides, and cation leaching at the rock-fluid interface is an important step to further investigate how these geochemical processes can change permeability and transport pathways. In this study, thin sections of the fracture-matrix interface were made from reacted Marcellus shale cores. The thin sections were characterized using synchrotron X-ray fluorescence imaging and synchrotron X-ray absorption spectroscopy. Fe species with different oxidation states were identified in the maps, together with barite and Ca distribution. The results show that ferrihydrite, as newly formed Fe(III)-bearing precipitates, aligned well with the border of the Ca (e.g., calcite) leaching region in the reaction front. Some Fe-containing clay also dissolved, but the dissolution region for the clay was not as deep as the calcite. Further, the reaction front is about three times deeper in the direction parallel to the shale bedding than that perpendicular to the bedding. The Ca leaching region can be an index for reaction front detection for Marcellus shale. Reactive transport modeling was conducted and the predicted Ca leaching boarder align well with ferrihydrite precipitation, consistent with the experimental observation. The carbonate mineral dissolution can be crucial to promote fluid access into the shale matrix. Together with our previous study on the shale reactive surface, this follow-up study showed similar Ca leaching region and Fe(III) precipitates distribution in the reaction front regardless of barite precipitation on the surface, indicating that the barite coatings on the surface may not pose a significant impact on reactive transport at the shale-fluid interface.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

Decision support for United States—Canada energy integration is impaired by fragmentary environmental and electricity system modeling capacity

The renewable energy transition is leading to increased electricity trade between the United States and Canada, with Canadian hydropower providing firm lower-carbon power and buffering variability of wind and solar generation in the U.S. However, long-term power purchase agreements and transborder transmission projects are controversial, with two of four proposed transmission lines between Quebec, Canada and the northeast U.S. cancelled since 2018. Here, we argue that controversies are exacerbated by a lack of open-source data and tools to understand tradeoffs of new hydropower generation and transmission infrastructure in comparison to alternatives. This gap includes impacts that incremental transmission and generation projects have on the economics of the entire system, for example, how new transmission projects affect exports to existing markets or incentivize new generation. We identify priority areas for data synthesis and model development, such as integrating linked hydropower and hydrologic interactions in energy system models and openly releasing (by utilities) or back-calculating (by researchers) hydropower generation and operational parameters. Publicly available environmental (e.g. streamflow, precipitation) and techno-economic (e.g. costs, reservoir size,) data can be used to parameterize freely usable and extensible models. Existing models have been calibrated with operational data from Canadian utilities that are not publicly available, limiting the range of scientific and commercial questions these tools have been used to answer and the range of parties that have been involved. Studies conducted using highly resolved, national-scale public data exist in other countries, notably, the United States, and demonstrate how greater transparency and extensibility can drive industry action. Improved data availability in Canada could facilitate approaches that (1) increase participation in decarbonization planning by a broader range of actors; (2) allow independent characterizations of environmental, health, and economic outcomes of interest to the public; and (3) identify decarbonization pathways consistent with community values.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Risk-based area of review estimation in overpressured reservoirs to support injection well storage facility permit requirements for CO 2 storage projects

This paper by the Energy & Environmental Research Center presents a workflow and modeling approach for delineating a risk-based area of review (AOR) to support a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Class VI permit for a carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage project. The approach combines semianalytical solutions for estimating formation fluid leakage through a hypothetical leaky wellbore with the results of numerical reservoir simulations to define the AOR. The modeling utilizes 1) semianalytical solutions from the peer-reviewed literature for formation fluid leakage through abandoned wellbores by Raven (1990) and Avci (1994), 2) a FORTRAN model compiled and described in Cihan et al. (2011, 2012) called ASLMA (Analytical Solution for Leakage in Multilayered Aquifers), and 3) a computational framework for estimating a risk-based AOR first proposed by Oldenburg et al. (2014, 2016). Therefore, the approach builds upon well-established research and underlying hydrogeological principles that have been upheld for nearly three decades. Moreover, the ASLMA model has been broadly applied to an array of storage projects. The work presented herein extends these earlier works using a custom wrapper written in the software environment, R (R Core Team, 2020), which was developed to perform multiple runs of the ASLMA model using given ranges for one or more input parameters. In addition, the current work simulates the pressure buildup within the storage reservoir in response to CO 2 injection using a compositional simulator to better accommodate the temporospatial evolution of pressure buildup within the storage reservoir that is more accurately modeled using a heterogeneous geologic model and a compositional simulator that accounts for the multiphase interactions. The workflow is demonstrated using a case study for a 180,000-metric-ton-per-year storage project located in the PCOR (Plains CO 2 Reduction) Partnership region. For the storage project evaluated here, under the scenario where the leaky wellbore is open to a saline aquifer (thief zone) between the overlying seal (cap rock) and the underground sources of drinking water (USDW), the risk-based AOR essentially collapses to the areal extent of the CO 2 plume in the storage reservoir because the pressure buildup in the storage reservoir beyond the CO 2 plume is insufficient to drive formation fluids up a hypothetical leaky wellbore into the USDW. However, even under the conservative assumption that the leaky wellbore is not open to a thief zone, beyond the areal extent of the CO 2 plume, the incremental leakage is less than 400 m 3 over 20 years, which represents ~0.0001% or less of the total volume of water contained within the USDW rock volume. As discussed in the text, the threshold criterion for defining the risk-based AOR is site-specific and should be informed by the results of the sensitivity analysis and available site characterization data. The approach outlined in this paper is designed to be protective of USDWs and, therefore, comply with the Safe Drinking Water Act requirements and provisions for the U.S. EPA Class VI Underground Injection Control (UIC) Program (Class VI Rule) and North Dakota Administrative Code Chapter 43-05-01.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Geochemistry and metagenomics analyses of bacterial community structure in selected waste dumpsites in Lagos Metropolis, Nigeria

Dumpsites are reservoirs of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and heavy metals (HMs), constituting environmental hazards to humanity. Autochthonous microorganisms in dumpsites exhibit various degrees of responses to contaminants. Unfortunately, there is a dearth of information on the types and concentration of pollutants and the array of microorganisms in these dumpsites which may play important roles in the metabolism of such pollutants or other community processes. Therefore, determining the microbial community structure in such contaminated sites across a municipality is essential for profiling the taxa that would serve as consensus degraders of the pollutants. In this study, soil samples from three dumpsites (Cele, CS; Solous, SS; and Computer Village, CVS) were characterized for geochemical properties using GC-MS, MP-AES, and other analytical protocols, while the dynamics of bacterial communities were evaluated based on their 16S rRNA gene barcodes. A significant difference in the bacterial communities was observed among the dumpsites in relation to the extent of pollution caused by POPs and HMs. CVS, with the highest HM contamination, was rich in Actinobacteria (41.7%) and Acidobacteria (10.2%), in contrast to CS and SS. Proteobacteria (34.1%) and Firmicutes (20%) were the dominant phyla in CS (highest POP contamination), while Bacteroidetes (45.5%) and Proteobacteria (39.9%) were dominant in SS soil.Bacilluswas the dominant genus in the most polluted dumpsite. Canonical correspondence analysis revealed that polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and HMs shaped the structure of the bacterial operational taxonomic units (OTUs) in the most polluted dumpsite. Out of a total of 706 OTUs, 628 OTUs exhibited a significant correlation (>50%) with benzo(b)fluoranthene, azobenzene, dibenzofurans, pyrene, dibenzo(a,l)pyrene, Cu, and Zn. In particular, Proteobacteria (Achromobactersp. andSerratiasp.), Bacteroidetes (Zhouiasp.), and Firmicutes (Bacillussp.) were suggested to be pivotal to the ecophysiology of dumpsite soils contaminated with POPs and HMs. The results generally underscored the importance of metagenomic and physicochemical analyses of polluted systems in enabling correlations for useful prediction of drivers of such ecosystems. This will further improve our understanding of the metabolic potential and adaptation of organisms in such systems.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗