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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Improving Trustworthiness of Data-Driven Power Grid Contingency Analysis With Bayesian Residual Graph Neural Networks

The evolving energy landscape requires novel tools to efficiently perform contingency analysis and reliability assessment of power grids, potentially in real-time. The high computational cost of traditional power flow solvers limits their applicability in practice. Machine learning (ML) surrogates such as deep neural networks (NNs) accelerate power flow solvers computations, enabling high-order contingency analysis and real-time decision-making by learning highly nonlinear functions and integrating grid topology via graph architectures. However, (graph) NNs lack predictive power away from training data and do not provide predictive confidence estimates. Here, we present a Bayesian residual graph NN that integrates knowledge from low-fidelity data via residual training and embeds granular quantification of uncertainties, improving trustworthiness critical for high-consequence decision-making. Applying Bayesian concepts to NNs is challenging due to the high-dimensionality of both the parameter space, complicating derivation of a meaningful prior, and the output space in large grid systems, requiring enhanced techniques to assess the predicted high-dimensional uncertainties. Our contributions include: (1) Deriving a prior for fully connected and graph NNs that leverages low-fidelity data to guide mean predictions and appropriately control prior predictive uncertainty. (2) Integrating this prior within an ensembling with anchoring scheme for efficient approximate posterior inference. (3) Deriving enhanced metrics to assess accuracy of both the mean and uncertainty predictions in high dimensions, appropriately accounting for correlations propagated through graph layers. The resulting Bayesian residual graph NN is tested on a contingency analysis task for 14-bus and 118-bus grids.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Application of Particle Accelerators to Mitigate Energy and Climate Change Problems Facing America

Reliable CO 2 -free baseload power is needed to address ever-increasing demands for electricity while minimizing adverse climate change. Diversified power supply provided by solar, wind, geothermal, and nuclear reactors can displace the use of fossil fuels. The United States (U.S.) is taking a new look at nuclear power as a source of electrical energy and the nuclear industry is proposing new approaches which may minimize capital costs. However, nuclear power comes with a variety of technical problems. Chief among those is managing the used fuel from nuclear reactors. No long-term, practicable solution to this problem is available. The lack of progress on a comprehensive waste management strategy restricts growth in the nuclear power industry and minimizes the role that nuclear energy may serve as part of a zero-carbon future (Bahr, 2021). According to the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982, as amended, the U.S. Government has possession of the used reactor fuel and incurs large annual storage fees paid to utilities to store and safeguard the accumulated used fuel. In effect, short term on-site storage of nuclear waste is the current waste management plan. The amount of used reactor fuel in the U.S. is approximately 80,000 metric tons. While no geologic repository exists within the U.S., the potential site at Yucca Mountain, NV would accommodate 70,000 metric tons, which fails to meet current and future needs. Given the technical and political challenges associated with establishing a single geological storage site, it is necessary for the U.S. to implement technologies that improve the suitability of geological storage by reducing the volume and radiotoxicity of stored material. No extant technology meets this need. Accelerator driven waste burners have been proposed as a scalable method to process used nuclear fuel, however considerable technical challenges remain which impede commercialization. Innovations in design require investigation of novel materials, development of accurate models and simulations, and a comprehensive assessment of safety and performance. This proposal elaborates how LANL is uniquely positioned to make key contributions to this area of research.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Thermal and electric multidomain dynamic model for integration of power grid distribution with behind-the-meter devices

As renewable energy sources like solar and wind power become more integrated into the grid, coordinated control of behind-the-meter devices is crucial for enhancing grid flexibility and reliability and for meeting cost targets, with standardized models being developed to support this transition. The increasing flexibility and uncertainty of integrated renewable energy grids, along with interactions between various subsystems, make traditional steady-state modeling insufficient to capture transient and dynamic behaviors. Current models (e.g., composite load and battery equivalent models) focus on thermodynamic or electrical characteristics but overlook critical electromechanical interactions. This limits the ability to share performance information for grid services and hampers fast dynamic simulations. In addition, motor stalling is usually triggered by a fault event and attributed to the characteristics of the mechanical torque of the motor, resulting in absorption of a large amount of reactive power during the stalling period. Further, this significant withdrawal of reactive power will deteriorate the dynamic voltage stability of power grids and cause delayed voltage recovery. Therefore, an in-depth modeling of the thermodynamics or mechanical torque is essential to study the impacts of the realistic torque characteristics of those behind-the-meter devices on power system voltage stability. This study developed a dynamic multidomain model for building HVAC systems, such as air-source heat pumps, to simulate their thermal and electrical responses to grid transients. The model can accurately predict power metrics with a mean absolute percentage error of 10%, by validating against with power system computer-aided design performance data. Case studies demonstrate the model capability of capturing the transient response to sudden voltage changes, rapid load fluctuations, and system shutdowns respectively. During a sudden voltage drop (30% for 0.1s), a fully loaded heat pump’s motor speed dropped, continued declining, and shut down after 3.6s, with severe power oscillations and a torque spike. A partially loaded unit experienced temporary oscillations but stabilized. Under higher building loads, compressor speed increased from 64% to 100%, with power and torque rising before stabilizing. In safety-triggered shutdowns, power decreased after minor fluctuations, and torque briefly spiked before dropping to zero.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Task 12 Sustainability - Methodological Guidelines on Net Energy Analysis of Photovoltaic Electricity (2nd Edition)

Net Energy Analysis (NEA) is a structured, comprehensive method of quantifying the extent to which a given energy source is able to provide a net energy gain (i.e., an energy surplus) to the end user, after accounting for all the energy losses occurring along the chain of processes that are required to exploit it (i.e., for its extraction, processing and transformation into a usable energy carrier, and delivery to the end user), as well as for all the additional energy 'investments' that are required in order to carry out the same chain of processes. However, this general framework leaves the individual practitioner with a range of choices that can affect the results and thus, the conclusions of a NEA study. The current IEA PVPS guidelines were developed to provide guidance on assuring consistency, balance, and quality to enhance the credibility and reliability of the results from photovoltaic (PV) NEAs. The guidelines represent a consensus among the authors - PV NEA experts in North America and Europe - for assumptions made on PV performance, process inputs and outputs, methods of analysis, and reporting of the results. Guidance is given on photovoltaic-specific parameters used as inputs in NEA and on choices and assumptions in inventory data analysis and on implementation of modelling approaches. A consistent approach towards system modelling, the functional unit, the system boundaries and allocation aspects enhance the credibility of PV electricity NEA studies and enables balanced NEA-based comparisons. Specifically, "apples-to-oranges" comparisons of different energy carriers (e.g., fuels vs. electricity) are not methodologically sound and are to be avoided in all cases; also, any comparison across renewable and non-renewable electricity generation technologies must clearly point out the intrinsically short-term nature of the NEA viewpoint, which does not capture the long-term sustainability implications of renewable vs. non-renewable primary energy harvesting and use: non-renewable primary energy resources are depleted and finally exhausted (irrespective of the size of the EROI), while renewable primary energy resources are not. This document provides an in-depth discussion of a common metric of NEA, namely the energy return on investment (EROI), and how this is to be interpreted vis-a-vis the deceptively similar-sounding metrics in the field of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA): cumulative energy demand (CED) and non-renewable cumulative energy demand (nr-CED) per unit output. Specifically, a number of key differences are highlighted between these metrics as applied to electricity production systems, which are listed in Table S-1.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Circular Economy for Photovoltaics in Service of Energy Transition

The challenge of energy transition is immediate and immense; current projections target 75 TW of photovoltaics (PV) capacity by 2050. While any transition to renewable energy technology is preferable to the current fossil-based system, it is ideal to improve the sustainability of PV to minimize negative environmental and social impacts. Circular economy (CE) has been proposed as a method to improve the sustainability of PV, especially for emerging materials like perovskites. CE is a set of actions, principles, and systems which aim to design out waste and keep products and materials in use, to reduce environmental impacts and enable sustainable development. At the most basic level, CE is "reduce, reuse, recycle", the R-actions, in ranked order. CE of a PV technology can be metricized in a variety of ways, such as the Material Circularity Indicator (Smith and Jones, Ellen MacArthur Foundation, 2019) or recycling rates. Unfortunately, standard CE metrics have several shortcomings for measuring renewable energy technologies in the context of deployment for energy transition (Figge 2018, Saidani 2019): 1) Only measure mass flows; 2) De-prioritization of the use phase in favor of mass circularity when scoring; and 3) Tight focus on a single product scale The use phase and energy flows of PV are key to energy transition, and therefore need to be quantified. Additionally, correlating product-scale to system-scale is necessary for quantifying the environmental impacts of energy transition. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) can address some of these concerns, but also focuses on a single product scale and has trouble capturing the dynamics of system-scale energy transition, such as the interaction of module lifetime with manufacturing demands for energy transition deployment schedules. Therefore, we developed an open-source Python-based system dynamics model to quantify the mass, energy and carbon impacts of CE R-actions for PV technologies in the energy transition; PV in the CE (PV ICE) (Ovaitt & Mirletz 2021). The tool captures supply chains from material extraction through end of life, incorporating 5 circular end of life pathways. PV ICE takes in any evolving bill of materials, module properties and deployment schedule to support researchers and decision makers with data-backed insights. In this work, we quantify and compare proposed CE sustainable PV module designs and lifecycle management strategies, spanning currently commercialized technologies, government and industry technology targets, and several low Technology Readiness Level (TRL) emerging PV technologies, including perovskites. Our analyses capture the projected evolutions of lifetime, efficiency and material circularity of these PV technologies, as well as their material supply chains. Our analyses emphasize the importance of examining a suite of metrics to identify priorities and tradeoffs, and inform design or lifecycle management decisions holistically. Previous analyses have demonstrated the central importance of PV module lifetime to support energy transition while minimizing impacts. High levels of material circularity (>90%) enable minimizing lifecycle wastes, can reduce virgin material demands if paired with improving efficiency, but demonstrate tradeoffs in energy return on investment. In the fervor of new material and technology development, it is important to remember that CE is not the end goal; decarbonization and energy transition are the end goal. CE should be used in service to improve the sustainability of PV, and R-actions evaluated for their usefulness and efficacy to this end.

carbon↗
DOE OSTI2020

Developing Flexible, Networked Lighting Control Systems That Reliably Save Energy in California Buildings

An important strategy to meet California's ambitious energy efficiency goals is to use innovative wireless communications, embedded sensors, data analytics and controls to significantly reduce lighting energy use in commercial buildings. This project developed a suite of networked lighting solutions to further this goal. The technologies include a platform for low-cost sensing, distributed intelligence and communications, the “PermaMote,” which is a self-powered sensor and controller for lighting applications. The project team also developed a task ambient daylighting system that integrates sensors with data-driven daylighting control using an open communication interface, called the “Readings-At-Desk” (RAD) system. To address the problem of building occupants being confused about how to operate traditional lighting control systems, the research team created content that could be the basis for a user interface standard for lighting controls. Finally, to address the difficulty of ensuring that advanced lighting control systems actually deliver their promised energy savings, the project team developed a new method for evaluating and specifying lighting systems’ performance. The research team validated these technologies in the laboratory, showing significant lighting energy savings, up to 73% for the PermaMote sensor system from occupancy control and daylight dimming features, compared to the same light source (LED replacement lamps) operated via simple on/off scheduling. The project team also developed a proposed standard lighting data model and user interface elements, which were contributed to the ANSI Lighting Systems Committee (C137) for standardization. Existing data models are incomplete and inconsistent, whereas the lighting-specific data model developed here is clear and comprehensive, to serve as a starting point for creating common, universally agreed upon semantic definitions of key lighting parameters, to promote interoperability. For the task on verifiable performance of lighting systems, the project team developed a more effective metric for capturing the actual energy impact of a lighting system over time — the energy usage intensity (kWh/ft2/year). Three commercial lighting systems were tested in FLEXLAB® using this new metric, and the tests show a wide range in the accuracy of the self-reported energy-use metric, from 0.5% to 28% error compared to direct measurement of lighting energy using dedicated submeters. Overall, the project team estimates that these advanced technologies can reduce California office lighting energy use by 20% (above and beyond normal advanced lighting controls mandated by Title 24), resulting in about 1,600 GWh/year in savings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Opportunities for Using the Industrial Assessment Center Database for Industrial Water Use Analysis

The manufacturing sector accounted for approximately 5–6% of total U.S. water use in 2015. Of that amount, 75–80% is self supplied withdrawal from surface-water and groundwater sources and the remainder is from public water supplies. Although manufacturing facilities commonly locate in water-scarce areas, water scarcity still poses a great risk to the manufacturing sector. Reliable water is necessary for any facility that relies on it for process and comfort cooling, cleaning, employee use, and steam generation. One of these barriers to water efficiency is the lack of reliable data on overall U.S. industrial water use—how it is used and the quantities required for each sector. If a facility cannot be easily compared with a facility of similar size and sector, knowing if it is effectively using water conservation best practices is difficult. One potential source of industrial water use data is the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)–sponsored Industrial Assessment Centers (IACs). IACs are university-based organizations that provide free audits to small- and medium-sized manufacturing facilities to identify productivity improvement and waste and energy reduction opportunities. The IACs also maintain a database of all the audits conducted, which currently holds more than 19,267 assessments and 145,000 recommendations (as of July 24, 2020). This database also contains energy utility (electricity, natural gas, and other fuels) and water utility data, making it a potential data source for industrial water use. This report attempts to create regression models to predict a small- or medium-sized industrial facility’s annual water use or cost based on its industrial subsector and several possible relevant variables. Using data collected by IAC assessments, models for several industrial subsectors were generated via stepwise regression techniques to determine which variables (annual sales, number of employees, facility/plant area, annual production hours, and a water stress metric) are relevant.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Analyzing and Exploring Training Recipes for Large-Scale Transformer-Based Weather Prediction

Abstract The rapid rise of deep learning (DL) in numerical weather prediction (NWP) has led to a proliferation of models which forecast atmospheric variables with comparable or superior skill than traditional physics-based NWP. However, among these leading DL models, there is a wide variance in both the training settings and architecture used. Further, the lack of thorough ablation studies makes it hard to discern which components are most critical to success. In this work, we show that it is possible to attain high forecast skill even with relatively off-the-shelf architectures, simple training procedures, and moderate compute budgets. Specifically, we train a minimally modified Swin Transformer V2 (SwinV2) on ERA5 data and find that it attains superior skill in terms of mean-square errors of deterministic forecasts when compared against the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). Almost all DL–NWP systems share a core set of hyperparameters and design decisions. To aid and expedite future DL–NWP research, we present an in-depth, systematic exploration of different loss functions, model sizes and depths, patch sizes, and multistep training objectives. We also examine the model performance with metrics beyond the typical accuracy (ACC) and RMSE and investigate how the performance scales with model size. Through our open-source code, scoring pipelines, and models, we share our findings on key aspects of the training pipeline. These ablations reduce the necessity for expensive hyperparameter tuning and lower the barrier to entry for future DL–NWP research. Significance Statement This study investigates the potential of using large-scale transformer-based models for weather prediction, showing that it is possible to achieve high forecast accuracy with simpler, off-the-shelf architectures. By training a minimally modified SwinV2 transformer on ERA5 data, we show that the model achieves competitive forecast skill in terms of mean-square error for key variables, outperforming the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) at all lead times. Our findings suggest that effective training strategies, such as multistep fine-tuning and channel-weighted losses, significantly enhance the model’s performance. However, we also highlight that these improvements come with trade-offs in other areas, such as ensemble spread and high-frequency spatial detail. This work highlights the promise of deep learning in improving weather forecasts, which could lead to better preparedness and response to weather events, ultimately benefiting society by providing more reliable weather predictions.

Willard, Jared D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Labo↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advanced HVAC Humidity Control for Hot-Humid Climates

During this project we develop and validate a cost-effective, integrated control solution to improve humidity control and comfort for energy-efficient homes in hot-humid climates. This study focuses on developing a strategy that is effective, field tested, and practical for builders to install with minimal disruption to standard practices. A successful solution would simplify the transition to high-performance humidity control and be the basis for design and installation guidance. By relying on the central system as a starting point, the strategy employed minimizes system complexity and cost for builders, while improving comfort and operating cost for homeowners. The solution strategy was to coordinate the cooling, dehumidification, and ventilation functions of central, ducted HVAC systems to better control indoor humidity, improve occupant thermal comfort, and capture energy savings. The primary strategic goals were to: (1) optimize dehumidification by the central air-conditioning system, particularly during part-load conditions, using conventional equipment with modified control settings and lower system airflows; (2) maximize ventilation during heating/cooling on-cycles, to “bank” and condition outdoor ventilation air, and minimize ventilation during off-cycles; (3) quantify the effectiveness and energy impact of the dehumidification and ventilation strategies, while identifying a metric that would be useful to evaluate latent effectiveness. For the test houses in our study, located in Richmond Hill, Georgia; Houston, Texas; and Monroe, Louisiana we observed: (1) the indoor humidity did not exceed 60% RH during the monitored cooling season for 99% of the time in Richmond Hill, 96% of the time in Houston, and 90% of the time in Monroe; (2) the dehumidification strategy improved the steady-state latent capacity of the HVAC system at design conditions by 16% to 49% at the Houston test house and by 28% to 71% at the Monroe test house, depending on which mode the system was operating in; and (3) the good results at the test houses were primarily due to the amount of time the air-conditioning system operated in ramping or dehumidification modes, or both, particularly during the early cooling season. This study demonstrates that air conditioners or heat pumps with a single-stage compressor can provide good humidity control without the need for a two-stage or variable-stage compressor system. The airflow and control settings for ramping and dehumidification modes are critical to control indoor humidity in hot-humid climates, particularly during part-load and shoulder season conditions. The dehumidification strategy used in this study did not jeopardize the mechanical reliability of the cooling equipment. The strategies used in this study are applicable across various equipment brands, models, and efficiency levels, and also applicable to a broad range of homes in hot-humid climates. Results will vary by specific equipment, location, and house configuration and construction.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Ambient Mass Spectrometry Rapid Analysis Methods for Trace Inorganics

The ability to rapidly detect and characterize the chemistry of trace quantities of inorganic species has multiple potential applications, including nuclear safeguards, nuclear forensics, and environmental monitoring. Some mass spectrometric methods currently exist, but they are costly and time-intensive, often destroying chemical information in the process of ionization. Ambient mass spectrometry is a relatively new analytical method in which samples are introduced to the mass spectrometer from atmospheric pressure, rather than from high vacuum. Ambient MS can operate with gentler ionization methods such as electrospray ionization (ESI) and paper-spray ionization (PSI), reducing fragmentation and preserving the chemical information of the analyte. This may be useful for determining the intended purpose of material in a sample. Strontium, part of nuclear fallout, is analyzed here to test these new analytical methods for viability. Electrospray ionization mass spectrometry functions by spraying the sample as a solution through a needle charged to a few kV. A nebulizing gas flows out along with the sample to create the spray before droplets enter a drying chamber with heated drying gas to remove the solvent molecules. From there bare analyte ions enter the mass spectrometer. This method has the advantage of relatively fast sample preparation and stable ionization. More stable ionization produces higher-quality data. Paper-spray ionization mass spectrometry operates by applying sample to a paper triangle. The paper triangle is then electrified in a metal clamp to a few kV before spray solvent is applied. The spray solvent transports analyte in the sample to the tip, where it is ionized and enters the mass spectrometer. One advantage of this method is reduced sample preparation - an analyst can even swipe a surface and cut a triangle directly from the swipe. The data analysis serves to rapidly process tens of samples all at once. The mass spectrometer outputs a file containing a few hundred spectra for each sample. The pipeline processes each one to identify peaks of interest. A full palette of data analysis metrics are generated, including plots of the raw data and plots of calculated values such as isotopic ratios. The pipeline filters the raw data to remove noise and background peaks, as well as peaks representing detector saturation. A heat map is generated to show the overall spectrum in mass-time- intensity space. Post-processing, we obtained the desired calibration curves, demonstrating that both ESI-MS and PSI-MS are viable methods for quantifying trace amounts of inorganics while retaining their chemical speciation information. ESI-MS demonstrated a linear response region of 100 ppb to 20 ppm, with a limit-of-detection of around 100 ppb. At top left is an example spectrum with the {sup 88}SrNO{sub 3} peak identified to show the retention of chemical speciation. PSI-MS showed a linear response region of around 1 ppb to 1 ppm, with a limit-of-detection of near 1 ppb. PSI-MS produced more erratic results than ESI-MS, likely due to the variability in ionization resulting from manual positioning of the paper triangle near the MS inlet. Future efforts will focus on improving the repeatability of PSI-MS as well as analyzing other species of interest such as cerium and uranium. Improvements will also be made to create more reliable data extraction and intelligent data filtering.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Queued Up: 2025 Edition – Characteristics of Power Plants Seeking Transmission Interconnection As of the End of 2024 [Slides]

Electric transmission system operators (ISOs, RTOs, or utilities) require proposed power plants seeking to connect to the transmission grid to undergo a series of impact studies before they can be built. This process establishes what new transmission equipment or upgrades may be needed before a project can connect to the system and assigns the costs of that equipment. The lists of projects in this process are known as “interconnection queues”. In collaboration with interconnection.fyi, Berkeley Lab compiled, aggregated, and cleaned interconnection queue data from >50 transmission grid operators (7 ISO/RTOs and 49 non-ISO balancing areas), which collectively represent ~97% of currently installed U.S. electric generating capacity. The dataset includes requests submitted to queues through the end of 2024, and only includes requests seeking to connect to the transmission grid (not distribution-connected or behind-the-meter projects). The files below include both a PDF report and an Excel data file. The PDF report analyzes interconnection data and metrics through the end of 2024. The Excel data file includes (a) the full project-level interconnection queue dataset through 2024, (b) a codebook (data dictionary) describing each data field, and (c) 35 additional tabs featuring tables summarizing a range of interconnection metrics. Key highlights from the Queued Up: 2025 Edition (featuring data through 2024) include: • As of the end of 2024, there were ~10,300 projects actively seeking grid interconnection in the U.S., representing 1,400 GW of generation and approximately 890 GW of storage. • Historic withdrawal rates alongside relatively fewer new requests resulted in a 12% decrease in total active queue volume compared to the prior year. • Active natural gas capacity (136 GW, +72% year-over-year) increased in 2024, while solar (956 GW, -12%), storage (890 GW, -13%), and wind (271 GW, -26%) capacity decreased. • 408 GW of capacity already has a draft or executed interconnection agreement (IA) but has not yet reached commercial operations. • The time projects spend in queues before reaching COD is increasing. For the regions with available data, the median duration from IR to COD has doubled from <2 years for projects built in 2000-2007 to over 4 years for those built in 2018-2024. • Ultimately, most of this proposed capacity will not be built. Only 13% of capacity that submitted interconnection requests from 2000-2019 had reached commercial operations by the end of 2024; 77% of that capacity had been withdrawn and 10% was still active. • FERC Order 2023 and various other reforms are being implemented. These are important measures to reduce interconnection bottlenecks and enhance grid system reliability, but it is too early to measure and assess their full impact. • New additions for the 2025 edition include: (a) additional detail on data processing and gaps; (b) updates on interconnection reforms; (c) new analysis on interconnection agreements, and more.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

High-Fidelity and High-Performance Computational Simulations for Rapid Design Optimization of Sulfur Thermal Energy Storage

Industrial process heating (IPH) accounts for approximately 70% of US manufacturing energy use and is primarily produced by fossil fuel combustion. Approximately 1500 TWht (approximately 60%) of IPH demand is in the temperature range of 100-300. Industrial applications in this temperature range include drying, hydrothermal processing, thermal enhanced oil recovery, food and beverage, bioethanol production, etc. Cost-effective thermal energy storage (TES) that increases the utilization of waste and renewable heat (solar, geothermal, etc.) could provide significant energy savings and reliable heat sources, decrease emissions, and increase US manufacturing competitiveness through reductions in fuel consumption. TES development has historically been dominated by technologies suitable for deployment with concentrating solar power (CSP). State-of-the-art thermal storage deployed commercially with power tower CSP plants uses a 60%/40% NaNO3/KNO3 molten salt and operates between temperatures of approximately 280 degrees Celsius and 570 degrees Celsius using a two-tank configuration. However, these nitrate salts are unsuitable for operation outside of this temperature range due to a high freezing point of approximately 220 degrees Celsius, and limits on high-temperature salt stability and corrosion resistance of containment alloys. Other materials being investigated for TES include those based on: (1) sensible energy storage (various molten salt compositions, inert solid particles, rocks or pebble beds, sulfur, water, concrete, graphite, etc.), (2) latent energy storage in materials that undergo solid-liquid phase change at relevant temperatures (organic materials for low-temperature applications, inorganic salts and/or metals for high-temperature applications), or (3) thermochemical energy storage (hydrides, hydroxides, carbonates, metal oxides, etc.). The application temperature and challenges pertaining to storage material and/or containment cost, energy density, long-term thermal and cyclic stability, and charge/discharge heat transfer effectiveness drive material selection for a given IPH or electricity generation application. Sulfur is a cheap commodity at $80/ton compared to $1100 - 1300/ton for conventional salts. When using a metric of storage cost per kWh, sulfur costs around 2-3 $/kWh. Previous sulfur TES development focused on high temperature (>600 degrees) concentrated solar power applications with sulfur encapsulated in pipes and flow of gaseous HTF (air) in the shell side. However, for lower-temperature IPH applications in the range of approximately 100-300 degrees Celsius Element 16 adopted a compact and scalable TES design with molten sulfur in the shell and HTF pipes submerged in the molten sulfur bath. The low-cost molten sulfur TES for dispatchable IPH has deployment potential for broad applications. The spatial and temporal evolution of the HTF and sulfur temperature is critical to the TES system performance, and thus detailed modeling can improve understanding of the performance and facilitate design improvements. Using high performance computing and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) a low-cost molten sulfur thermal energy storage (TES) system for industrial process heating (IPH) applications was developed. The unique challenges in CFD modeling of sulfur TES are the sharp property changes of sulfur relevant to the working temperatures. Above 159, liquid sulfur undergoes polymerization, and the viscosity of sulfur rapidly increases by several orders of magnitude between 159 degrees Celsius and 188 degrees Celsius, followed by a decrease in viscosity beyond 188 degrees Celsius due to thermal bound dissociation. In addition, various concentrations of H2S impurities can also modify sulfur viscosity. This numerical challenge is especially relevant to transient simulation of the sulfur TES charging and discharging processes as the extreme property variations limit the applicability of traditional heat transfer correlations. Transient CFD simulations including the temperature-dependent sulfur properties and geometric complexity of the TES design were used to predict the effect of natural convection during charging and discharging on the heat transfer process, sulfur temperature uniformity, charge/discharge rates, and performance of the storage devices. The CFD model was validated with experimental results for a full charge and discharge cycle. The work will show 3D and 2D simulation comparisons aimed to facilitate rapid design iterations and a machine learning based design optimization approach.

CFD↗
DOE OSTI2021

Review of Design Elements within Power Infrastructure Cyber–Physical Test Beds as Threat Analysis Environments

Cyber–physical systems (CPSs) are an integral part of modern society; thus, enhancing these systems’ reliability and resilience is paramount. Cyber–physical testbeds (CPTs) are a safe way to test and explore the interplay between the cyber and physical domains and to cost-effectively enhance the reliability and resilience of CPSs. Here a review of CPT elements, broken down into physical components (simulators, emulators, and physical hardware), soft components (communication protocols, network timing protocols), and user interfaces (visualization-dashboard design considerations) is presented. Various methods used to validate CPS performance are reviewed and evaluated for potential applications in CPT performance validation. Last, initial simulated results for a CPT design, based on the IEEE 33 bus system, are presented, along with a brief discussion on how model-based testing and fault–injection-based testing (using scaling and ramp-type attacks) may be used to help validate CPT performance.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling Offshore Wind Farm Performance in Coastal Low-Level Jets Using Coupled Mesoscale-Microscale Large Eddy Simulations

Accurately predicting wind farm reliability under complex offshore atmospheric conditions remains a key challenge, particularly during noncanonical meteorological events such as coastal low-level jets (LLJs). LLJs, characterized by strong nonmonotonic vertical shear and directional veer, depart significantly from the simplified inflow assumptions embedded in conventional design standards, low-fidelity engineering models, and microscale large eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary layer. In this work, we use the virtual wind farm framework—an exascale, graphics processing unit–accelerated large eddy simulation platform coupled with high-fidelity aeroservoelastic turbine models and advanced mesoscale-microscale coupling via the ExaWind software stack—to investigate turbine responses under realistic LLJ forcing. Simulations are performed over the U.S. North Atlantic offshore domain with the use of meteorological inputs from New York State Energy Research and Development Authority buoy data, focusing on a representative LLJ case impacting the International Energy Agency 15 MW reference turbine. Our results show that LLJs can cause up to 50% power deficits in downstream turbine rows and significantly amplify low-speed shaft and tower loads through nonlinear coupling between complex inflow characteristics and turbine structural dynamics. Two primary mechanisms drive these load amplifications: (1) unique LLJ inflow features—including veer and vertical/lateral shear—and (2) the downstream evolution of the flow under stable thermal stratification, which suppresses turbulence mixing and alters wake recovery. These mechanisms produce streamwise variations in turbine loading not captured by standard hub height–based metrics or existing design load case (DLC) definitions. This study highlights the critical role of rotor-scale flow gradients in driving fatigue and system-level aeroelastic responses, challenging current DLC and control strategies. We advocate the integration of full-flow field, environment-aware wind inputs into load modeling and control algorithms. By leveraging exascale computing to resolve mesoscale-microscale coupling, this work lays the groundwork for next-generation offshore wind turbine design and operation in meteorologically complex marine environments.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Scalable deep learning for watershed model calibration

Watershed models such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) consist of high-dimensional physical and empirical parameters. These parameters often need to be estimated/calibrated through inverse modeling to produce reliable predictions on hydrological fluxes and states. Existing parameter estimation methods can be time consuming, inefficient, and computationally expensive for high-dimensional problems. In this paper, we present an accurate and robust method to calibrate the SWAT model (i.e., 20 parameters) using scalable deep learning (DL). We developed inverse models based on convolutional neural networks (CNN) to assimilate observed streamflow data and estimate the SWAT model parameters. Scalable hyperparameter tuning is performed using high-performance computing resources to identify the top 50 optimal neural network architectures. We used ensemble SWAT simulations to train, validate, and test the CNN models. We estimated the parameters of the SWAT model using observed streamflow data and assessed the impact of measurement errors on SWAT model calibration. We tested and validated the proposed scalable DL methodology on the American River Watershed, located in the Pacific Northwest-based Yakima River basin. Our results show that the CNN-based calibration is better than two popular parameter estimation methods (i.e., the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation [GLUE] and the dynamically dimensioned search [DDS], which is a global optimization algorithm). For the set of parameters that are sensitive to the observations, our proposed method yields narrower ranges than the GLUE method but broader ranges than values produced using the DDS method within the sampling range even under high relative observational errors. The SWAT model calibration performance using the CNNs, GLUE, and DDS methods are compared using R 2 and a set of efficiency metrics, including Nash-Sutcliffe, logarithmic Nash-Sutcliffe, Kling-Gupta, modified Kling-Gupta, and non-parametric Kling-Gupta scores, computed on the observed and simulated watershed responses. The best CNN-based calibrated set has scores of 0.71, 0.75, 0.85, 0.85, 0.86, and 0.91. The best DDS-based calibrated set has scores of 0.62, 0.69, 0.8, 0.77, 0.79, and 0.82. The best GLUE-based calibrated set has scores of 0.56, 0.58, 0.71, 0.7, 0.71, and 0.8. The scores above show that the CNN-based calibration leads to more accurate low and high streamflow predictions than the GLUE and DDS sets. Our research demonstrates that the proposed method has high potential to improve our current practice in calibrating large-scale integrated hydrologic models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine Learning-Based Anomaly Detection for PMT Data Quality Monitoring in the SBN and DUNE

Maintaining high-quality detector data is essential for achieving the scientific objectives of the Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Program at Fermilab. Current data quality monitoring (DQM) procedures rely primarily on threshold-based metrics and manual inspection of detector monitoring plots, making the detection of subtle or gradually developing anomalies both time-consuming and dependent on expert interpretation. This project developed and evaluated a machine-learning workflow for automatically identifying anomalous photomultiplier tube (PMT) channels in the Short-Baseline Near Detector (SBND) using optical-hit amplitude data. A Python-based analysis program was developed to process ROOT files, extract statistical features describing individual PMT amplitude distributions, and generate feature vectors for anomaly detection. These features were used to train an Isolation Forest model using data representing normal detector operation. The trained model was subsequently applied to independent detector runs to identify channels exhibiting statistically unusual behavior relative to the learned reference response. To support expert interpretation, the workflow generated complementary diagnostic products, including anomaly score distributions, normalized amplitude comparisons, decision-tree visualizations, and principal component analysis (PCA) projections. This project demonstrated the feasibility of integrating unsupervised machine learning into detector data-quality monitoring and developed a complete workflow for automated PMT performance assessment to aid expert-driven review. Beyond its technical contributions, the VFP appointment fostered a research collaboration between Aurora University and Fermilab and provided direct workforce development benefits by training the visiting faculty member in detector-scale machine-learning methods that are now being incorporated into undergraduate coursework and research. The methodology developed here provides a foundation for future applications to ProtoDUNE and other liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) detectors, contributing to ongoing efforts to improve detector reliability, reduce manual monitoring requirements, and enable scalable data quality monitoring for future large-scale neutrino experiments, including the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE).

Colón Santana, Juan A. [Unlisted, US, IL]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling supercritical CO2 injection induced rupture of a minor fault embedded in a poroelastic layered reservoir-caprock system

CO2 injection for geologic carbon sequestration involves hydromechanical processes that lead to changes in fluid pressure and stresses that can activate existing faults. This paper presents a new method and workflow of modeling fault activation considering more complex three-dimensional geometry of natural faults using the TOUGH-FLAC multiphase fluid flow and geomechanical simulator. In this method and workflow, FLAC3D mechanical interfaces and TOUGH3 finite volume elements are discretized using computer aided design and gridding software along with a tailored mesh translation routine. The method and workflow are demonstrated with a model of a curved minor fault embedded in a poro-elastic layered reservoir-caprock system. The model is used for a comprehensive sensitivity analysis of fault responses to fault length, injection mass rate, injection schedule, well-fault distance, and well locations versus fault location. Four metrics (CO2 plume, shear state of fault, pressure and stress path at fault monitoring points) are selected to assess CO2 migration, pressure change, and the reactivation of faults. The results reveal that CO2 can bypass around the tip of the minor impermeable fault, building up pressure and poro-elastic stress on both sides that tends to impede fault rupture. Our study shows the benefit of carefully designing the injection to achieve the targeted final storage volume, starting at a relatively low rate for considerable time, and then ramping up the injection rate to the full rate of injection. The initial low injection has two distinct benefits: (1) it allows for the formation of an extensive CO2 plume with a much higher mobility through a low viscosity that will result in a lower pressure for a given injection rate, and (2) it allows for gradual build-up of horizontal poro-elastic stress within the reservoir that will tend to impede activation of steeply dipping faults. The injection scenario starting at a low injection rate, denoted here as conservative injection, can significantly reduce the risk of fault activation as high fluid mobility and reservoir strengthening poro-elastic stress has been established long before reaching the peak injection rates. Moreover, simultaneous injection in two injection wells on both sides of fault can provide further reservoir strengthening through poro-elastic stress buildup acting on a fault under normal faulting stress regime. The findings presented in the paper can provide practical and effective guidance on long-term, safe, and reliable geological CO2 storage.

Cao, Meng↗
DOE OSTI2026

Optical Durability of Contemporary PV Encapsulants Through Artificial UV Weathering

Modern c-Si photovoltaic (PV) cells provide high performance but can be vulnerable to ultraviolet light induced degradation (UV-ID). Encapsulants, if chosen correctly, can mitigate UV-ID of the PV cell. Here, we explore performance and durability of 14 commercial encapsulant materials before, during, and after irradiation with UV-containing light. Materials include contemporary, polymer-based encapsulants with a base polymer of poly (ethylene co-vinyl acetate) (EVA), polyethylene-..alpha..-olefin (POE), or their composite (EPE). Polymers contain additives that induce UV-blocking, UV-transmitting, or UV-downshifting properties. We use test coupons to study degradation in a chamber held at 65 degrees C under a xenon light source for up to 4000 h of exposure, corresponding to a cumulative dose of 11.5 MJ/m2 at 340 nm. We examine optical properties including spectral transmittance, yellowness index and spectral fluorescence, considering changes to both the encapsulant and glass as a function of weathering time. Degradation modes identified include discoloration, changes to UV cutoff wavelength, changes to solar-weighted transmittance, and most notably a change to the UV-managing properties of some additives. We propose the use of solar-weighted transmittance in the 300- to 400-nm range to better track performance changes in the UV region associated with the UV-related additive. This is especially relevant for the emerging class of UV-downshifting additives, as metrics like UV-cutoff can understate the degree of degradation or change in these materials. While most encapsulants show very little change after weathering, some show significant changes that directly impact how much UV light would reach an underlying cell.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗