A multi-reservoir model for projecting drought impacts on thermoelectric disruption risk across the Texas power grid
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24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “reliability metrics”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Evaluating Constraints on Heavy-Ion SEE Susceptibility Imposed by Proton SEE Testing and Other Mixed Environments
We develop metrics for assessing the effectiveness of proton SEE data for bounding heavy-ion SEE susceptibility. The metrics range from simple geometric criteria requiring no knowledge of the test articles to bounds of SEE rates.
quality assurance↗
A Physics of Failure Approach to Evaluate Printed Circuit Board Reliability
Risk based technology infusion is a deliberate and systematic process which defines the analysis and communication methodology by which new technology is applied and integrated into existing and new designs, identifies technology development needs based on trends analysis and facilitates the identification of shortfalls against performance objectives. This presentation at IPC Works Asia Aerospace 2019 Events provides the audience a snapshot of quality variations in printed wiring board quality, as assessed, using experiences in processing and risk analysis of PWB structural integrity coupons. The presentation will focus on printed wiring board quality metrics used, the relative type and number of non-conformances observed and trend analysis using statistical methods. Trend analysis shows the top five non-conformances observed across PWB suppliers, the root cause(s) behind these non-conformance and suggestions of mitigation plans. The trends will then be matched with the current state of the PWB supplier base and its challenges and opportunities. The presentation further discusses the risk based SMA approaches and methods being applied at GSFC for evaluating candidate printed wiring board technologies which promote the adoption of higher throughput and faster processing technology for GSFC missions.
Printed Circuit Boards↗
Microcomputer-based tests for repeated-measures: Metric properties and predictive validities
A menu of psychomotor and mental acuity tests were refined. Field applications of such a battery are, for example, a study of the effects of toxic agents or exotic environments on performance readiness, or the determination of fitness for duty. The key requirement of these tasks is that they be suitable for repeated-measures applications, and so questions of stability and reliability are a continuing, central focus of this work. After the initial (practice) session, seven replications of 14 microcomputer-based performance tests (32 measures) were completed by 37 subjects. Each test in the battery had previously been shown to stabilize in less than five 90-second administrations and to possess retest reliabilities greater than r = 0.707 for three minutes of testing. However, all the tests had never been administered together as a battery and they had never been self-administered. In order to provide predictive validity for intelligence measurement, the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale-Revised and the Wonderlic Personnel Test were obtained on the same subjects.
Kennedy, Robert S.↗
Benchmark probabilistic solar forecasts: Characteristics and recommendations
We illustrate and compare commonly used benchmark, or reference, methods for probabilistic solar forecasting that researchers use to measure the performance of their proposed techniques. A thorough review of the literature indicates wide variation in the benchmarks implemented in probabilistic solar forecast studies. To promote consistent and sensible methodological comparisons, we implement and compare ten variants from six common benchmark classes at two temporal scales: intra-hourly forecasts and hourly resolution forecasts. Using open-source Surface Radiation Budget Network (SURFRAD) data from 2018, these benchmark methods are compared using proper probabilistic metrics and common diagnostic tools. Practical implementation issues, such as the impact of missing data and applicability for operational forecasting, are also discussed. Furthermore, we make recommendations for practitioners on the appropriate selection of benchmark methods to properly showcase state-of-the-art improvements in forecast reliability and sharpness. All code and open-source data are available on Github for reproducibility and for other researchers to apply the same benchmark methods to their own data.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
The DESI Survey Validation: Results from Visual Inspection of the Quasar Survey Spectra
Abstract A key component of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) survey validation (SV) is a detailed visual inspection (VI) of the optical spectroscopic data to quantify key survey metrics. In this paper we present results from VI of the quasar survey using deep coadded SV spectra. We show that the majority (≈70%) of the main-survey targets are spectroscopically confirmed as quasars, with ≈16% galaxies, ≈6% stars, and ≈8% low-quality spectra lacking reliable features. A nonnegligible fraction of the quasars are misidentified by the standard spectroscopic pipeline, but we show that the majority can be recovered using post-pipeline “afterburner” quasar-identification approaches. We combine these “afterburners” with our standard pipeline to create a modified pipeline to increase the overall quasar yield. At the depth of the main DESI survey, both pipelines achieve a good-redshift purity (reliable redshifts measured within 3000 km s −1 ) of ≈99%; however, the modified pipeline recovers ≈94% of the visually inspected quasars, as compared to ≈86% from the standard pipeline. We demonstrate that both pipelines achieve a median redshift precision and accuracy of ≈100 km s −1 and ≈70 km s −1 , respectively. We constructed composite spectra to investigate why some quasars are missed by the standard pipeline and find that they are more host-galaxy dominated (i.e., distant analogs of “Seyfert galaxies”) and/or more dust reddened than the standard-pipeline quasars. We also show example spectra to demonstrate the overall diversity of the DESI quasar sample and provide strong-lensing candidates where two targets contribute to a single spectrum.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA Crew Launch Vehicle Overview
The US. Vision for Space Exploration, announced January 2004, outlines the National Aeronautics and Space Administration s (NASA) strategic goals and objectives. These include: 1) Flying the Shuttle as safely as possible until its retirement, not later than 2010. 2) Bringing a new Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) into service as soon as possible after Shuttle retirement. 3) Developing a balanced overall program of science, exploration, and aeronautics at NASA, consistent with the redirection of the human spaceflight program to focus on exploration. 4) Completing the International Space Station (ISS) in a manner consistent with international partner commitments and the needs of human exploration. 5) Encouraging the pursuit of appropriate partnerships with the emerging commercial space sector. 6) Establishing a lunar return program having the maximum possible utility for later missions to Mars and other destinations. Following the confirmation of the new NASA Administrator in April 2005, the Agency commissioned a team of aerospace subject matter experts from government and industry to perform the Exploration Systems Architecture Study (ESAS), which provided in-depth information for selecting the follow-on launch vehicle designs to enable these goals, The ESAS team analyzed a number of potential launch systems, with a focus on: (1) a human-rated launch vehicle for crew transport and (2) a heavy lift launch vehicle (HLLV) to carry cargo. After several months of intense study utilizing technical performance, budget, and schedule objectives, the results showed that the optimum architecture to meet the challenge of safe, reliable crew transport is a two-stage variant of the Space Shuttle propulsion system - utilizing the reusable Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) as the first stage, along with a new upper stage that uses a derivative of the RS-25 Space Shuttle Main Engine to deliver 25 metric tons to low-Earth orbit. The CEV that this new Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV) lofts into space early next decade will initially ferry astronauts to the Space Station and be capable of carrying crews back to lunar orbit and of supporting missions to Mars orbit. The HLLV system will utilize the Shuttle External Tank combined with SRBs. The focus of this paper is on the CLV system, giving an overview of plans and progress to date.
Dumbacher, Daniel L.↗
Long-Term Reliability of a Hard-Switched Boost Power Processing Unit Utilizing SiC Power MOSFETs
Silicon carbide (SiC) power devices have demonstrated many performance advantages over their silicon (Si) counterparts. As the inherent material limitations of Si devices are being swiftly realized, wide-band-gap (WBG) materials such as SiC have become increasingly attractive for high power applications. In particular, SiC power metal oxide semiconductor field effect transistors' (MOSFETs) high breakdown field tolerance, superior thermal conductivity and low-resistivity drift regions make these devices an excellent candidate for power dense, low loss, high frequency switching applications in extreme environment conditions. In this paper, a novel power processing unit (PPU) architecture is proposed utilizing commercially available 4H-SiC power MOSFETs from CREE Inc. A multiphase straight boost converter topology is implemented to supply up to 10 kilowatts full-scale. High Temperature Gate Bias (HTGB) and High Temperature Reverse Bias (HTRB) characterization is performed to evaluate the long-term reliability of both the gate oxide and the body diode of the SiC components. Finally, susceptibility of the CREE SiC MOSFETs to damaging effects from heavy-ion radiation representative of the on-orbit galactic cosmic ray environment are explored. The results provide the baseline performance metrics of operation as well as demonstrate the feasibility of a hard-switched PPU in harsh environments.
Ikpe, Stanley A.↗
Foundations of Rigorous Cyber Experimentation
This report presents the results of the “Foundations of Rigorous Cyber Experimentation” (FORCE) Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project. This project is a companion project to the “Science and Engineering of Cyber security through Uncertainty quantification and Rigorous Experimentation” (SECURE) Grand Challenge LDRD project. This project leverages the offline, controlled nature of cyber experimentation technologies in general, and emulation testbeds in particular, to assess how uncertainties in network conditions affect uncertainties in key metrics. We conduct extensive experimentation using a Firewheel emulation-based cyber testbed model of Invisible Internet Project (I2P) networks to understand a de-anonymization attack formerly presented in the literature. Our goals in this analysis are to see if we can leverage emulation testbeds to produce reliably repeatable experimental networks at scale, identify significant parameters influencing experimental results, replicate the previous results, quantify uncertainty associated with the predictions, and apply multi-fidelity techniques to forecast results to real-world network scales. The I2P networks we study are up to three orders of magnitude larger than the networks studied in SECURE and presented additional challenges to identify significant parameters. The key contributions of this project are the application of SECURE techniques such as UQ to a scenario of interest and scaling the SECURE techniques to larger network sizes. This report describes the experimental methods and results of these studies in more detail. In addition, the process of constructing these large-scale experiments tested the limits of the Firewheel emulation-based technologies. Therefore, another contribution of this work is that it informed the Firewheel developers of scaling limitations, which were subsequently corrected.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Machine Learning Driven Contouring of High-Frequency Four-Dimensional Cardiac Ultrasound Data
Automatic boundary detection of 4D ultrasound (4DUS) cardiac data is a promising yet challenging application at the intersection of machine learning and medicine. Using recently developed murine 4DUS cardiac imaging data, we demonstrate here a set of three machine learning models that predict left ventricular wall kinematics along both the endo- and epi-cardial boundaries. Each model is fundamentally built on three key features: (1) the projection of raw US data to a lower dimensional subspace, (2) a smoothing spline basis across time, and (3) a strategic parameterization of the left ventricular boundaries. Model 1 is constructed such that boundary predictions are based on individual short-axis images, regardless of their relative position in the ventricle. Model 2 simultaneously incorporates parallel short-axis image data into their predictions. Model 3 builds on the multi-slice approach of model 2, but assists predictions with a single ground-truth position at end-diastole. To assess the performance of each model, Monte Carlo cross validation was used to assess the performance of each model on unseen data. For predicting the radial distance of the endocardium, models 1, 2, and 3 yielded average R2 values of 0.41, 0.49, and 0.71, respectively. Monte Carlo simulations of the endocardial wall showed significantly closer predictions when using model 2 versus model 1 at a rate of 48.67%, and using model 3 versus model 2 at a rate of 83.50%. These finding suggest that a machine learning approach where multi-slice data are simultaneously used as input and predictions are aided by a single user input yields the most robust performance. Subsequently, we explore the how metrics of cardiac kinematics compare between ground-truth contours and predicted boundaries. We observed negligible deviations from ground-truth when using predicted boundaries alone, except in the case of early diastolic strain rate, providing confidence for the use of such machine learning models for rapid and reliable assessments of murine cardiac function. To our knowledge, this is the first application of machine learning to murine left ventricular 4DUS data. Future work will be needed to strengthen both model performance and applicability to different cardiac disease models.
4D ultrasound↗
John F. Kennedy Space Center, Safety, Reliability, Maintainability and Quality Assurance, Survey and Audit Program
This document is the product of the KSC Survey and Audit Working Group composed of civil service and contractor Safety, Reliability, and Quality Assurance (SR&QA) personnel. The program described herein provides standardized terminology, uniformity of survey and audit operations, and emphasizes process assessments rather than a program based solely on compliance. The program establishes minimum training requirements, adopts an auditor certification methodology, and includes survey and audit metrics for the audited organizations as well as the auditing organization.
Source record↗
Formal Methods for Trusted Space Autonomy, Boon or Bane?
Trusted Space Autonomy is challenging in that space systems are complex artifacts deployed in a high stakes environment with complicated operational settings. Thus far these challenges have been met using the full arsenal of tools: formal methods, informal methods, testing, runtime techniques, and operations processes. Using examples from previous deployments of autonomy to the Remote Agent on DS-1, Autonomous Sciencecraft on EO-1, WATCH on MER, IPEX, AEGIS on MER, MSL, and M2020, and the M2020 Onboard planner, we discuss how each of these approaches have been used to enable successful deployment of autonomy. We next focus on relatively limited use of formal methods (both prior to deployment and runtime methods). From the needs perspective, formal methods represent the best chance for reliable autonomy as testing, informal methods, and operations accommodations do not scale well with increasing complexity of the autonomous system. However from the practice perspective, formal methods have been limited in their application due to difficulty in eliciting formal specifications and challenges in representing complex constraints such as metric time and resources. We discuss some of these challenges as well as the opportunity to extend formal and informal methods into runtime validation systems.
Chien, Steve↗
Beyond Expected Values Evolving Metrics for Resource Adequacy Assessment
Resource adequacy analysis quantifies the likelihood of capacity shortfall on a power system in a probabilistic manner. Using a combination of statistical techniques and power system fundamentals, the analysis typically evaluates hundreds or thousands of stochastic random samples (replications) of varying load, generator outages, variable renewable energy availability, and other aspects of power system uncertainty. In this range of uncertainty, there are - at times - periods where the power system's available resources are insufficient to meet system demand, referred to as a shortfall event. Today's power systems' rapidly evolving generation mix is changing the types of data needed by system planners and regulators, which can often render traditional resource adequacy metrics insufficient for ensuring resource adequacy for tomorrow's grid. In this paper we provide a critical assessment of traditional measures of shortfall risk in power systems, discussing their shortcomings and how they compare to metrics used in other domains. From this analysis we propose four steps forward for improving power system resource adequacy risk metrics in the future.
ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Tool-Based Case Studies on Strategic Deployment of Untapped Micro-Pumped Hydro Storage in Michigan
With most classical hydropower sites already utilized and the global push for rapid integration of renewable energy sources accelerating, there is a critical need to identify alternative energy storage solutions. Pumped hydro energy storage, which accounts for the vast majority of global grid-scale storage, remains one of the most cost-effective and long-duration storage technologies available. Hence, this study presents a novel tool designed to assess the untapped potential of inland lakes and reservoirs for micro-PSH, using Michigan’s relatively flat landscape as a case study due to its extensive but underutilized water infrastructure. To ensure accuracy and reliability, the tool incorporates extensive data gathered from authorized sources, covering more than 420 water facilities and potential reservoirs in the state. The tool evaluates key parameters such as horizontal and vertical distances, volume, and the total storage capacity of each reservoir. Its robust assessment framework integrates these metrics to evaluate each site’s potential. The tool’s intuitive interface and geospatial visualizations support actionable insights for planners and scalable deployment of distributed storage infrastructure.
13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
Quantifying the Protectability of Power Systems for Restoration Applications
With the increasing availability of distributed energy resources, controllable switches, and advanced metering infrastructure, distribution systems are exploring opportunities for improving system reliability through fault location, isolation, and service restoration. During permanent outages, this requires islanding microgrids and/or reconfiguration of the feeders; however, it is critical to assess the protection of the islanded/reconfigured networks before transition because the rated load and fault current conditions change. This paper presents a novel “protectability” metric that quantifies the protection performance and allows the operators to compare the effectiveness of the protection between two or more possible reconfiguration and islanding approaches. We present the mathematical formulation and assumptions for the metric. Multiple configurations of the Electric Power Research Institute J1 feeder, both in grid-connected and weak-sourced islanded operation, are used to demonstrate the performance of the metric with reference to overcurrent protection. Takeaways for future studies on system planning integration are provided.
distributed energy resources↗
Efficient and Reliable Power Takeoff for Ocean Wave Energy Harvesting
The project goal is to significantly improve the current ocean wave energy harvesting through innovative Power Take-off (PTO) design, advanced power electronics, and novel wave capture structures. The objective of the project is to design and demonstrate system-agnostic components for application across multiple MHK systems, and complete component designs, build scaled prototypes, and perform testing and analysis for metric validation of 25% increase in component rating/per unit cost and 50% reduction in failure rate. The major innovation of the PTO is the Mechanical Motion Rectifier (MMR) mechanism that rectifies the bi-directional oscillatory motion of the input from waves into a steady unidirectional rotation output to directly drive the electrical generator. Through this mechanism, the efficiency and the fatigue life of the PTO can be significantly improved to benefit the energy absorption and lifespan of the wave energy converters (WEC). During the period of performance, the component and system design are completed, the scaled prototypes are developed and performed testing. It is validated that the 25% increase in a component rating/per unit cost. The 50% reduction in failure rate is not directly validated by experiments, however, it can be explained qualitatively with analysis. Besides, 8 journal articles, 13 conference proceedings, 1 patent, 3 Master thesis and two Ph.D. dissertations are published based on the work related to this project. The list of all the publications can be found at the end of the project as an appendix. Over 30 students and postdocs were trained through this project. Three prototypes of 100W and 500W WECs and 10KW PTO were designed, built, and tested in ocean wave tank and using the NREL dynamometer. This project demonstrated 50-80% PTO efficiency, 90-98% power electronics efficiency, up to 66% capture width ratio in irregular waves, and 34% overall efficiency in regular waves.
16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
Thermal Integration of Advanced Nuclear Reactors with a Reference Refinery, Methanol Synthesis, and a Wood Pulp Plant (Rev.1)
The present report is intended to provide process flow diagrams (PFDs) and energy and mass balance data sheets for a U.S. industrial sector subset with which nuclear heat and power could be integrated—a subset that includes the oil refining, methanol and pulp and paper industries. Coupling options for integrating nuclear energy into these industries are quantitatively outlined for reference systems, and future work will extend this analysis in greater detail. Opportunities for integrating small modular nuclear reactors (SMNRs) were investigated for each of the industrial process configurations. Aspen HYSYS and Cycle-Tempo models for a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor were developed to evaluate the proposed integration. This introductory evaluation provides a general description and assessment of the operating principles, reactor coolant core outlet temperature, and reactor size to be integrated with industry. The industrial processes of oil refining and the production of methanol, pulp and paper were simulated by using Aspen HYSYS, Aspen Plus, and the PRELIM (Petroleum Refinery Life Cycle Inventory Model) tool to develop process details. Cycle-Tempo models then extend the process modeling results to obtain net energy demands (e.g., heat, steam, and electricity) when accounting for process steam and waste heat recovery. This information is intended to foster the analysis of integrating an SMNR to decarbonize industrial facilities. The SMNR would provide reliable, competitive, and sustainable clean energy while reducing carbon emissions and other environmental impacts, such as water withdrawals, consumption, and contamination. The refining industry, exhibited in Figure ES1, is a leading consumer of fossil -fuel-based heat, power, and hydrogen in the U.S. industrial sector, generating over 164 million metric tons (MMT) of CO 2 emissions in 2023. The overall mass and energy pertaining to a generalized complex refinery in the United States is reflected in Figure ES1, along with energy metrics regarding integration with a nuclear power plant (NPP). Data sheets were developed to indicate the energy requirements for the overall refinery and each refinery process. The data sheet for the overall refinery is shown in Table ES2.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Understanding software faults and their role in software reliability modeling
This study is a direct result of an on-going project to model the reliability of a large real-time control avionics system. In previous modeling efforts with this system, hardware reliability models were applied in modeling the reliability behavior of this system. In an attempt to enhance the performance of the adapted reliability models, certain software attributes were introduced in these models to control for differences between programs and also sequential executions of the same program. As the basic nature of the software attributes that affect software reliability become better understood in the modeling process, this information begins to have important implications on the software development process. A significant problem arises when raw attribute measures are to be used in statistical models as predictors, for example, of measures of software quality. This is because many of the metrics are highly correlated. Consider the two attributes: lines of code, LOC, and number of program statements, Stmts. In this case, it is quite obvious that a program with a high value of LOC probably will also have a relatively high value of Stmts. In the case of low level languages, such as assembly language programs, there might be a one-to-one relationship between the statement count and the lines of code. When there is a complete absence of linear relationship among the metrics, they are said to be orthogonal or uncorrelated. Usually the lack of orthogonality is not serious enough to affect a statistical analysis. However, for the purposes of some statistical analysis such as multiple regression, the software metrics are so strongly interrelated that the regression results may be ambiguous and possibly even misleading. Typically, it is difficult to estimate the unique effects of individual software metrics in the regression equation. The estimated values of the coefficients are very sensitive to slight changes in the data and to the addition or deletion of variables in the regression equation. Since most of the existing metrics have common elements and are linear combinations of these common elements, it seems reasonable to investigate the structure of the underlying common factors or components that make up the raw metrics. The technique we have chosen to use to explore this structure is a procedure called principal components analysis. Principal components analysis is a decomposition technique that may be used to detect and analyze collinearity in software metrics. When confronted with a large number of metrics measuring a single construct, it may be desirable to represent the set by some smaller number of variables that convey all, or most, of the information in the original set. Principal components are linear transformations of a set of random variables that summarize the information contained in the variables. The transformations are chosen so that the first component accounts for the maximal amount of variation of the measures of any possible linear transform; the second component accounts for the maximal amount of residual variation; and so on. The principal components are constructed so that they represent transformed scores on dimensions that are orthogonal. Through the use of principal components analysis, it is possible to have a set of highly related software attributes mapped into a small number of uncorrelated attribute domains. This definitively solves the problem of multi-collinearity in subsequent regression analysis. There are many software metrics in the literature, but principal component analysis reveals that there are few distinct sources of variation, i.e. dimensions, in this set of metrics. It would appear perfectly reasonable to characterize the measurable attributes of a program with a simple function of a small number of orthogonal metrics each of which represents a distinct software attribute domain.
Munson, John C.↗