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At least 415 records · Page 23

Review of Amendment Delivery and Distribution Methods, and Relevance to Potential In Situ Source Area Treatment at the Hanford Site

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Hanford Site in southeastern Washington State is a complex of multiple facilities where historical release events in the Central Plateau area have resulted in subsurface contamination of the vadose zone, a perched-water zone, and underlying aquifer. Although some contaminants have already migrated through the vadose zone into the groundwater, contaminants remaining in the unsaturated zone are a potential long-term risk as a source for further groundwater contamination. Moreover, a perched-water zone located in the 200-DV-1 Operable Unit at Hanford creates further remediation difficulties. Remediation options are limited for contaminants located in the vadose and perched-water zones within the Central Plateau due to considerable depth, co-located contaminants, and complexities associated with physical and biogeochemical heterogeneities. Existing comprehensive reviews discuss potential remedial technologies relevant to Hanford Site conditions (e.g., deep vadose zone and perched water) and provide treatment technology recommendations. Many of the recommended in situ remediation technologies rely on introduction of amendments into the subsurface to achieve remedial goals. However, there are currently few review or guidance documents that provide a comprehensive look at mechanisms and considerations related to amendment delivery and distribution. This document summarizes amendment types, delivery techniques, subsurface access methods, and the applicability of delivery methods and amendments for specific subsurface target zones, including in the context of Hanford Central Plateau applications. Guidance on the appropriateness of a remedial technology for a specific site and contaminant is not included within this document. Rather, this document is intended to be used when considering remediation technologies and the associated amendments. An overview of amendment types (i.e., liquid, gas, and solids) and access/distribution methods used in subsurface remediation is provided, along with discussion of the maturity level (low, medium, or high), advantages, and limitations that relate to the potential effectiveness of each approach in the context of site-specific factors (subsurface geology, geochemistry, contaminant properties, etc.). There are many Hanford Site-specific factors that influence the suitability and appropriateness of amendment delivery strategies. Excluding amendment delivery approaches that are unsuitable for the Hanford context, each approach was assessed for applicability to the following target zones: unsaturated high permeability, unsaturated low permeability, perched water, saturated high permeability, and saturated low permeability zones. This compilation and discussion related to amendment delivery mechanisms provides a useful resource for evaluating remedial alternatives for source area contamination in the Hanford Central Plateau.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Intermediate-Term Thermal Aging Effect Evaluation for Grade 92 and 316L at The LWR Relevant Temperature

Life extension of the existing nuclear reactors imposes accumulated damages, such as higher fluences and longer period of corrosion, to structural materials, which would result in significant challenges to the traditional reactor materials such as type 304 and 316 stainless steels. Advanced alloys with superior radiation resistance will increase safety margins, design flexibility, and economics for not only the life extension of the existing fleet but also new builds with advanced reactor designs. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) teamed up with Department of Energy (DOE) on the Advanced Radiation Resistant Materials (ARRM) program, aiming to develop and test degradation resistant alloys from current commercial alloy specifications by 2021 to a new advanced alloy with superior degradation resistance in light water reactor (LWR)-relevant environments by 2024. Based on a comprehensive microstructure and property screening performed in Phase-1 of the ARRM program, a total of five alloys, together with 316L and X-750 as references, were down-selected for Phase-2 neutron irradiation studies. Because thermal aging could exert a synergistic effect on neutron irradiation due to the low neutron damage rate on the order of 10 –7 displacements per atom per second (dpa/s), Grade 92 (one of the five down-selected alloys) and two heats of 316L were selected in this task to study the effect of aging at 350°C for 12.5–12.7 kh on microstructure and mechanical properties. The aging time is approximately corresponding to 5 dpa neutron irradiation, which can be served as a reference for the 5-dpa-irradiated samples of the alloys to help understand the independent neutron damage influence on microstructure and mechanical properties. Optical microscopy and scanning electron microscopy were used for microstructural characterization. Hardness, tensile, Charpy impact toughness, and fracture toughness in the ductile regime of the aged samples were examined. The aging of Grade 92 led to the formation of many Laves phase in sizes of ~100–200 nm and resulted in some reduction in hardness and yield/ultimate tensile strength with some increases in uniform and total plastic elongations, which may have helped the enhancement of Charpy impact toughness, e.g., ~4 J increase in upper-shelf energy and 20.5°C reduction in ductile-brittle transition temperature compared with the unaged condition. The fracture toughness of the aged Grade 92 showed decent toughness of ~303 MPa√m (K Jq ) with ~87 tearing modulus at 22°C, which reduced to ~241 MPa√m (~20% reduction) with ~75 tearing modulus at 300°C. The two heats of 316L are differentiated by their amounts of δ-ferrite, i.e., ~1 vol% in heat T1103 and ~4 vol% in heat N5B8. The two heats of 316L were subjected to 15% cold work (CW) as this condition is often used in nuclear reactors to help trapping radiation-induced defects and thus postpone the steady state swelling stage. The aging did not result in any noticeable microstructure changes, except for possible segregations at grain boundaries that need to be further investigated. The aging resulted in slight reduction in hardness of 316L-T1103 and slight increase in hardness of 316L-N5B8, which is consistent with their tensile testing results. The 15%CW might have introduced some inhomogeneity, resulting in large standard deviations in hardness, which were reduced after the aging. The aged 316L followed the same trend as the unaged condition for the strength and elongation results from the tensile testing. Minimum elongations appeared within ~300–600°C, above which the elongations seem to increase. Unlike the negligible or minor changes in microstructure, hardness and tensile results of the two heats of 316L, their fracture toughness showed noticeable difference. The aged 316L-T1103 showed good toughness of ~350 MPa√m with ~80 tearing modulus at 22°C, which reduced to ~271 MPa√m (~23% reduction) with ~83 tearing modulus at 300°C. In contrast, the aged 316L-N5B8 showed lower toughness of ~244 MPa√m with ~53 tearing modulus at 22°C, which reduced to ~180 MPa√m (~26% reduction) with ~31 tearing modulus at 300°C. The preliminary results indicate that the presence of high volume of δ-ferrite would noticeable impair fracture toughness although it may not influence hardness and tensile properties.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Long-Term Thermal Aging Effect Evaluation for Grade 92 and 316L at The LWR Relevant Temperature

Life extension of the existing nuclear reactors imposes accumulated damages, such as higher fluences and longer periods of corrosion, to structural materials, which would result in significant challenges to the traditional reactor materials such as type 304 and 316 stainless steels. Advanced alloys with superior radiation resistance will increase safety margins, design flexibility, and economics for not only the life extension of the existing fleet but also new builds with advanced reactor designs. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) initiated a collaboration with the Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program on the Advanced Radiation Resistant Materials (ARRM) program, focused on developing and test degradation resistant alloys for light water reactor (LWR)- relevant environments. Based on a comprehensive microstructure and property screening, the ARRM program selected a total of five alloys (i.e., Grade 92, 310, 690, 718A, and 725), together with 316L and X-750 as references, for further investigations.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

CO2 Electrolyzer to Produce Formic Acid at Industry Relevant Current Density

Electrochemical CO2 reduction reaction (CO2RR) to produce formic acid has attracted great interest recently since formic acid can be used as a feedstock for biorefineries. Over the past decade, much effort has been devoted to the prospects of electrochemical CO2 conversion to formic acid. However, issues including low current density, low selectivity, low energy efficiency, poor long-term stability, and production of formate salts instead of formic acid remain as the great challenges for the development and commercialization of this technology. Recently, Dioxide Materials (DM) has developed an electrolyzer technology that can directly convert CO2 to pure formic acid with a three-compartment CO2 electrolyzer. In this work, DM will present our recent effort on improving the electrolyzer performance operating at industry relevant current density (200 mA/cm2). We have demonstrated 200 mA/cm² with 80% Faradaic efficiency for 1000 hours of operation. The effects of CO2 concentration and impurities in the flue gas on the electrolyzer performance will be discussed, as will ongoing efforts to test the device at a coal fired power plant. The long-term (1000 h) performance of the electrolyzer will also be presented.

Yang, Hongzhou↗

Advancing Transportation Efficiency and Electric Vehicles in Tonga: A Review of Relevant Trends and Best Practices

Tonga is facing a transportation sector characterized by private passenger vehicles, poorly maintained roads and walkways, and an inadequate public transit system. By understanding detailed global and regional trends for transport energy efficiency and electric vehicles (EVs) within this context, the Government of Tonga can proactively plan its future transportation systems. In addition to global and regional trends, this report also covers a variety of international case studies and examines Tonga's own transportation policies and actions through this lens. Jurisdictions leading in EV adoption have implemented policies such as reducing taxes on EVs compared to internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, providing subsidies and rebates for EV charger installation, instituting an age limit on imported ICE vehicles, and developing EV maintenance courses to expand the skill set of current automotive technicians. Although there are key challenges and barriers to widespread EV adoption in Tonga, multiple studies have researched potential political, technical, financial, and educational interventions that can be adapted and applied in Tonga. Therefore, the purpose of this report is to synthesize the relevant trends and best practices in order to provide Tonga's Ministry of Meteorology, Energy, Information, Disaster Management, Environment, Climate Change and Communication (MEIDECC) with a wide range of information on electric vehicles (EVs) and transportation efficiency.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Survey of Relevant Data from the MSRP to Guide Development of MSR Chemistry Modeling Benchmarks

The Multiphysics Applications technical area of the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program is tasked with assessing, demonstrating, and applying NEAMS tools in solving multiphysics problems of nuclear reactors, such as liquid-fueled molten salt reactors (MSRs), which are the focus of this report. MSRs are actively being pursued as a potential candidate for power and heat generation by the nuclear industry. However, the inherent multiphysics nature of liquid-fueled MSRs, stemming from the strong interrelationship of neutronics, thermal fluids, and chemistry phenomena, provides unique challenges in modeling and simulation (mod/sim). Therefore, it will be important to develop mod/sim tools with varying types of multiphysics coupling that depend on the problem. The current work is focused on the initiation and development of MSR chemistry modeling benchmarks useful for validating current and potential future NEAMS tools. Development of such benchmarks include the following actions: 1) Summarize available chemistry data from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) MSR Program (MSRP) including operation of the Molten Salt Reactor Experiment (MSRE) and design studies for the Molten Salt Breeder Reactor (MSBR) concept; 2) Recommend simulation problems in MSR chemistry mod/sim based on (1); 3) Assess the current state of NEAMS tools that may support (2); 4) Demonstrate and validate the capabilities of the NEAMS tools in (3) while providing iterative feedback on future code development activities. The objective of this report is to initiate this effort by completing actions (1) and (2), which are discussed in Section 2. An overview of the relevant available MSRE experimental data is provided with examples of how this data may be useful in chemistry mod/sim problems, with the caveat that most of this data is over 50 years old, therefore some problem details as well as uncertainty estimates are often not provided. In Section 3, the current state of NEAMS tools is assessed for potential use in these mod/sim problems, with considerations for future code development activities, supporting action (3). Future work supporting this project under NEAMS may include a deeper dive into the specific phenomena discussed here including tasks such as the compilation of additional available data, updates in code development activities, and ultimately the demonstration and validation of these tools, supporting action (4).

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Review of capture cross sections relevant for intentional nuclear forensics

The NA-22 Intentional Forensics Venture is developing a system for tagging nuclear fuel using various methods of information encoding. One of the main methods under development is the insertion of isotopically enriched tracers into the fuel. In order to aid in the understanding of the neutronic performance of these taggants, we assess the quality of the nuclear data underpinning simulations, which are driven by the neutron-capture cross sections. We present these cross sections of naturally occurring isotopes of the elements provided in the neutron sublibrary of the planned ENDF/B-VIII.1 Feb. 2023 library release. We make this assessment using a rubric designed for this effort, which quantifies orthogonal features related to the overall quality. The quality metric highlights 6 aspects: experimental data, resonance evaluations, integral metrics, covariances, fission products, and documentation. We focus on energy ranges relevant for reactor applications. We also discuss additional sources for new, high-quality cross-section data that may be utilized on the time scale of the venture, including existing global data, new experiments, and computational methods. Finally, overall outlook is presented with conclusions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Quantum-enhanced Imaging and Spectroscopy and their Relevance to International Safeguards

As a follow-up to our previous report on quantum sensing for safeguards, here we delve deeper into quantum-enhanced imaging & spectroscopy and address their relevance to international safeguards. Much of the approaches rely on entangled photons, a quantum phenomenon not possible with classical physics, although just correlated photons will work for some applications, such as ghost imaging. We provide a comprehensive survey of quantum approaches, including multiple entangled photon ghost imaging and spectroscopy techniques. Entangled photons for noise reduction are also described, as well as Non-Line-Of-Sight imaging, compressive techniques, and squeezed light. Of particular interest is the generation of entangled photons with large wavelength separation, such as infrared/visible entangled photon pairs. Such entangled pairs would allow interaction with objects in the IR, such as in the molecular “fingerprint” wavelength region, while the recording device captures the visible photons, thus leveraging the high efficiency and lower cost of visible detectors. Unfortunately, entangled x-ray photons are not practical, which would have been useful for safeguards to interrogate shielded materials. Entangled gamma rays are even further beyond reason. We provide our assessment for application of quantum-enhanced imaging & spectroscopy for international safeguards, including suggested improvements to existing IAEA instruments and destructive assay measurements that are done at IAEA lab facilities.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Quantification of the Crack Evolution Process by Extracting Relevant Signal Components from Wave Propagation and Diffusive Transport Front Measurements

Wave propagation and diffusive transport phenomena in a geological rock sample undergoing crack evolution process are expected to interact with the mechanical discontinuities in the medium. The measurements of the signals associated with these phenomena can be used to assess and monitor the crack-driven micromechanical alterations in the rock. Different wave/diffusion phenomena, such as sonic propagation, pressure diffusion, and acoustic emission (AE), are sensitive to different elements of the mechanical discontinuities generated during the evolution of the crack clusters from initiation to coalescence. Sonic propagation, AE, and pressure diffusion monitoring have the potential to map the crack evolution because the transmitter-receiver arrays can be designed, arranged and tuned to (1) achieve maximum recovery of the scattered waveforms and travel times, (2) capture the later arrivals and multiple reflections, and (3) illuminate large rock volume. However, the structural/topological complexities of the mechanical discontinuities, complex distribution of the stress fields, complex mechanical alterations in media, and fluid redistribution in the crack system pose serious challenges for the detection and modeling of the crack evolution process (from here on, we will use the term ‘crack evolution process’ to mean that the crack evolution occurred under shallow crustal conditions). For purposes of accurately accounting such complexities and heterogeneities in the absence of reliable physical laws, simulation methods, and signal processing techniques, my early-career research proposal will develop and apply novel data-driven machine learning methods to: (1) extract signal components relevant to the various phases of crack evolution and (2) generate a 2D visual map of the crack evolution process.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

How much is surface dopant enough to maximize CO2-to-liquid chemicals conversion at industrially relevant current density?

This invited talk will be presented at the symposium "Waste Feedstock to Fuels and Petrochemicals”, Fuels and Petrochemical Division at the 2024 AIChE Annual Meeting. In this study, we will discuss how minute amount of surface heteroatoms would maximize CO2 reduction to formate/formic acid at industrially relevant current densities and high selectivity which was validated by both experimental and computational studies. The outstanding performance of the best-in-class catalysts in both H-cell and full-cell electrolyzer cell is also demonstrated. Our findings would provide additional design concepts of high performance CO2R electrocatalysts.

Nguyen Phan, Thuy Duong↗

Graph-Based Modeling for the Detection and Tracking of Sarin-Surrogate-Induced Neurotoxicity Using a Human-Relevant, In-Vitro Brain Model

Organophosphorus (OP) nerve agents are a chemical threat to the United States, to the civilian population (e.g., pesticides) and historically weaponized (e.g., sarin) as chemical warfare agents. The unprecedented, accelerated process from “bench-to-bedside” during the SARSCov2 pandemic has made it clear that technology and tools need to be readily available for immediate response. Advances in human organ tissue mimetic systems are a promising technology to evaluate the human-relevant response in vitro for basic and applied research and drug screening. In particular, current brain microphysiological systems (MPS) have the capability to monitor and detect changes in engineered human neural circuit activity. However, current data analytics approaches for these systems lack the granularity to functionally detect and distinguish the different mechanisms that occur in the brain following neurotoxicity, injury, and disease. The goal of this project was to advance the computational analytical capabilities of the brain MPS to detect functional changes in neural circuit structure at different stages of Sarin surrogate-induced neurotoxicity. We developed graph-based models to (1) identify the composition of the neural circuit structure; (2) detect and monitor how this structure changes following sarin-induced neurotoxicity; and (3) evaluate the analytical pipeline using known/promising oxime reactivators. Through experiments on the bMPS where in vitro neuronal cultures were exposed to a sarin surrogate, we demonstrated the capabilities of our computational pipeline to identify different responses in the functional networks of brain cells exposed to low and high concentrations of the nerve agent. We identified a biphasic response of human neural network activity following exposure to a sarin-surrogate that had not been reported in the literature before. The graph-based models and software developed in this project can be used for future studies that leverage the brain MPS technology, such as treatment efficacy assessment.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Review of Literature and Utility Commission Proceedings Relevant to Integrated System Planning: Annotated Bibliography Prepared to Support the Washington Utilities and Transportation Commission

In 2024 the Washington State Legislature passed the Decarbonization Act for Large Combination Utilities (Engrossed Substitute House Bill 1589 – the Act). The Act requires a large combination electric and gas utility to conduct integrated system planning supporting electrification and gas system decarbonization, including a reduction in the gas rate base. The utility is required to submit the first integrated system plan (ISP) by January 1, 2027. The requirements are to be developed and adopted by the Washington Utilities and Transportation Commission (UTC) by July 1, 2025. In October 2024 Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) began providing technical assistance to the UTC to support the ISP rulemaking. PNNL and LBNL have prepared this annotated bibliography of research and reports, and state examples of coordinated gas and electric planning, future of gas, and future of heat proceedings in other U.S. States and one Canadian Province. The items described here have been selected by the authors for their potential relevance to the UTC’s integrated system planning rule discussions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Benchmark Study Matrix for Microreactor Geometries Relevant to Multiple Developers

A benchmark study was developed that include design, development, manufacturing, and performance measurement of agnostic reactor relevant geometries to support industry’s adoption of advanced manufacturing in a variety of structures. A matrix of five microreactor component geometries, specifically based on the recent feasibility study on a Marvel microreactor liner, was developed and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory team initiated one material/process combination, namely 316H using laser powder directed energy deposition (DED). Although the benchmark starts initially with simplistic cubical and cylindrical forms, it builds up to a mock-up of a non-proprietary design that can demonstrate a variety of features potentially useful for presenting knowledge to specific designers of microreactors and for the matter also for other reactor type designers. The initial cubical and cylindrical forms are initial steps to obtain surface features and dimensional responses to the identified process parameters to be used in the non-proprietary design mockup.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Neptunium (V) Solubility in WIPP Brine: Presence and Absence of WIPP-Relevant Organic and Inorganic Ligands

The oxidation state and solubility of neptunium (Np) in 5 M NaCl and high ionic strength synthetic WIPP (Waste Isolation Pilot Plant) brines were systematically investigated as a function of pCH+ (7-11) in the presence and absence of WIPP-relevant organic ligands, including EDTA (Ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid), oxalate, citrate, and acetate, as well as inorganic ligands such as borate and carbonate at a temperature of 23 ± 2°C. This study was conducted through long-term batch solubility experiments spanning approximately 950 days, using an undersaturation approach. A comprehensive set of experimental and spectroscopic techniques, including UV-VIS-NIR spectroscopy and Np L III -edge X-ray Absorption Spectroscopy (XAS), was employed to identify the solubility-controlling Np solid phases and the predominant aqueous Np species present in the samples.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Studying Open Quantum Systems Relevant to Chemistry on a Trapped-Ion Quantum Simulator (Final Technical Report)

This project advances the trapped-ion quantum simulator as a versatile platform for studying open quantum system phenomena. We aim to contribute to the emerging quantum simulation toolkits and enable simulation of nanoscale energy processes. Trapped-ion platforms offer unique capabilities: their vibrational motion can be precisely manipulated, measured, and coherently coupled to auxiliary qubits. The vibrational mode can function both as a highly sensitive quantum sensor and a programmable environment bath. Using this platform, we achieved three major outcomes. First, we demonstrated using the vibrational mode as an ultrasensitive probe for testing fundamental physics, including possible nonlinear quantum mechanics effects. Second, we established that these modes can act as controllable baths in which tunable noise and loss can enhance or modify energy-transfer dynamics, providing the experimental preparation toward studying mechanisms relevant to chemical reactions and light-harvesting systems. Third, by introducing controllable nonlinear gain and loss, we showed theoretically how simulations using trapped ions can model vibrationally-assisted energy transport in a non‐Hermitian quantum system comprising a chromophore dimer weakly coupled to a vibrational mode. Exploring the non‐Hermitian dynamics of the whole system including vibrations, we found that energy transfer accompanied by absorption of phonons from a vibrational mode can be significantly enhanced near an exceptional point. This theoretical work on simulation of energy transfer processes in driven non‐Hermitian quantum systems revealed an interesting novel path to study open quantum systems dynamics under conditions of gain and loss. We then further explored the benefits of controllable gain and loss with an experimental realization of quantum analogs of nonlinear oscillators, namely, the van der Pol oscillator. Here we observed mutual synchronization mediated by collective dissipation between two oscillators. In parallel, we explored related quantum networking protocols using the same trapped-ion platform, developing fast, high-fidelity schemes for distributing entanglement. Together, these achievements show that trapped-ion vibrational modes provide a highly programmable and high-fidelity platform for investigating complex dissipative quantum behavior, while enabling new approaches to remote quantum sensing, energy science, and nonlinear quantum dynamics.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Center for Integrated Simulation of Fusion Relevant RF Actuators

This project was part of the “Center for Integrated Simulation of Fusion Relevant RF Actuators” SciDAC-4 project, led by Dr. Paul Bonoli (MIT). Rather than use an acronym (CISFRRFA), the project will be referred to in this document as the “RF-SciDAC4”. The larger SciDAC-4 project goals were to: 1. Develop an integrated simulation of the antenna + sheath + scrape-off-layer + core plasma system which fully utilizes leadership class computing resources to move towards a quantitative predictive capability for the response to RF power. 2. Work closely with the SciDAC-4 Whole Device Modeling (WDM) community to make both our new code development efforts, as well as the established hierarchy of RF tools, available within their environment, and to utilize WDM technologies to implement the couplings below. 3. Validate this predictive capability on appropriately diagnosed experiments including dedicated RF test stands, linear devices, and existing tokamaks. 4. Use these tools to inform design of robust, impurity-mitigating RF heating and current drive sources for future fusion devices.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Geometric and Material Variability Influences Stress States Relevant to Coastal Permafrost Bluff Failure

Scientific knowledge and engineering tools for predicting coastal erosion are largely confined to temperate climate zones that are dominated by non-cohesive sediments. The pattern of erosion exhibited by the ice-bonded permafrost bluffs in Arctic Alaska, however, is not well-explained by these tools. Investigation of the oceanographic, thermal, and mechanical processes that are relevant to permafrost bluff failure along Arctic coastlines is needed. We conducted physics-based numerical simulations of mechanical response that focus on the impact of geometric and material variability on permafrost bluff stress states for a coastal setting in Arctic Alaska that is prone to toppling mode block failure. Our three-dimensional geomechanical boundary-value problems output static realizations of compressive and tensile stresses. We use these results to quantify variability in the loci of potential instability. We observe that niche dimension affects the location and magnitude of the simulated maximum tensile stress more strongly than the bluff height, ice wedge polygon size, ice wedge geometry, bulk density, Young's Modulus, and Poisson's Ratio. Our simulations indicate that variations in niche dimension can produce radically different potential failure areas and that even relatively shallow vertical cracks can concentrate displacement within ice-bonded permafrost bluffs. These findings suggest that stability assessment approaches, for which the geometry of the failure plane is delineated a priori, may not be ideal for coastlines similar to our study area and could hamper predictions of erosion rates and nearshore sediment/biogeochemical loading.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗