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At least 415 records · Page 23

Saharan Dust Event Impacts on Cloud Formation and Radiation over Western Europe

We investigated the impact of mineral dust particles on clouds, radiation and atmospheric state during a strong Saharan dust event over Europe in May 2008, applying a comprehensive online-coupled regional model framework that explicitly treats particle-microphysics and chemical composition. Sophisticated parameterizations for aerosol activation and ice nucleation, together with two-moment cloud microphysics are used to calculate the interaction of the different particles with clouds depending on their physical and chemical properties. The impact of dust on cloud droplet number concentration was found to be low, with just a slight increase in cloud droplet number concentration for both uncoated and coated dust. For temperatures lower than the level of homogeneous freezing, no significant impact of dust on the number and mass concentration of ice crystals was found, though the concentration of frozen dust particles reached up to 100 l-1 during the ice nucleation events. Mineral dust particles were found to have the largest impact on clouds in a temperature range between freezing level and the level of homogeneous freezing, where they determined the number concentration of ice crystals due to efficient heterogeneous freezing of the dust particles and modified the glaciation of mixed phase clouds. Our simulations show that during the dust events, ice crystals concentrations were increased twofold in this temperature range (compared to if dust interactions are neglected). This had a significant impact on the cloud optical properties, causing a reduction in the incoming short-wave radiation at the surface up to -75Wm-2. Including the direct interaction of dust with radiation caused an additional reduction in the incoming short-wave radiation by 40 to 80Wm-2, and the incoming long-wave radiation at the surface was increased significantly in the order of +10Wm-2. The strong radiative forcings associated with dust caused a reduction in surface temperature in the order of -0.2 to -0.5K for most parts of France, Germany, and Italy during the dust event. The maximum difference in surface temperature was found in the East of France, the Benelux, and Western Germany with up to -1 K. This magnitude of temperature change was sufficient to explain a systematic bias in numerical weather forecasts during the period of the dust event.

Bangert, M.↗

Improvement in Simulation of Eurasian Winter Climate Variability with a Realistic Arctic Sea Ice Condition in an Atmospheric GCM

The present study investigates how much a realistic Arctic sea ice condition can contribute to improve simulation of the winter climate variation over the Eurasia region. Model experiments are set up using different sea ice boundary conditions over the past 24 years (i.e., 1988-2011). One is an atmospheric model inter-comparison (AMIP) type of run forced with observed sea-surface temperature (SST), sea ice, and greenhouse gases (referred to as Exp RSI), and the other is the same as Exp RSI except for the sea ice forcing, which is a repeating climatological annual cycle (referred to as Exp CSI). Results show that Exp RSI produces the observed dominant pattern of Eurasian winter temperatures and their interannual variation better than Exp CSI (correlation difference up to approx. 0.3). Exp RSI captures the observed strong relationship between the sea ice concentration near the Barents and Kara seas and the temperature anomaly across Eurasia, including northeastern Asia, which is not well captured in Exp CSI. Lagged atmospheric responses to sea ice retreat are examined using observations to understand atmospheric processes for the Eurasian cooling response including the Arctic temperature increase, sea-level pressure increase, upper-level jet weakening and cold air outbreak toward the mid-latitude. The reproducibility of these lagged responses by Exp RSI is also evaluated.

sea-ice↗

Magnetic Signature of the Lunar South Pole-Aitken Basin: Character, Origin, and Age

A new magnetic map of the Moon, based on Lunar Prospector (LP) magnetometer observations, sheds light on the origin of the South Pole-Aitken Basin (SPA), the largest and oldest of the recognized lunar basins. A set of WNW-trending linear to arcuate magnetic features, evident in both the radial and scalar observations, covers much of a 1000 km wide region centered on the NW portion of SPA. The source bodies are not at the surface because the magnetic features show no first-order correspondence to any surface topographic or structural feature. Patchy mare basalts of possible late Imbrianage are emplaced within SPA and are inferred to have been emplaced through dikes, directly from mantle sources. We infer that the magnetic features represent dike swarms that served as feeders for these mare basalts, as evident from the location of the Thomson/ Mare Ingenii, Van de Graaff, and Leeuwenhoek mare basalts on the two largest magnetic features in the region. Modeling suggests that the dike zone is between 25 and 50 km wide at the surface, and dike magnetization contrasts are in the range of 0.2 A/m. We theorize that the basaltic dikes were emplaced in the lunar crust when a long-lived dynamo was active. Based on pressure, temperature, and stress conditions prevalent in the lunar crust, dikes are expected to be a dominantly subsurface phenomenon, consistent with the observations reported here.

South Pole-Aitken↗

Current and Future Perspectives of Aerosol Research at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Aerosols are tiny atmospheric particles that are emitted from various natural and anthropogenic sources. They affect climate through direct and indirect interactions with solar and thermal radiation, clouds, and atmospheric circulation (Solomon et al. 2007). The launch of a variety of sophisticated satellite-based observing systems aboard the Terra, Aqua, Aura, SeaWiFS (see appendix for all acronym expansions), CALIPSO, and other satellites in the late 1990s to mid-2000s through the NASA EOS and other U.S. and non-U.S. programs ushered in a golden era in aerosol research. NASA has been a leader in providing global aerosol characterizations through observations from satellites, ground networks, and field campaigns, as well as from global and regional modeling. AeroCenter (http://aerocenter.gsfc.nasa.gov/), which was formed in 2002 to address the many facets of aerosol research in a collaborative manner, is an interdisciplinary union of researchers (~200 members) at NASA GSFC and other nearby institutions, including NOAA, several universities, and research laboratories. AeroCenter hosts a web-accessible regular seminar series and an annual meeting to present up-to-date aerosol research, including measurement techniques; remote sensing algorithms; modeling development; field campaigns; and aerosol interactions with radiation, clouds, precipitation, climate, biosphere, atmospheric chemistry, air quality, and human health. The 2013 annual meeting was held at the NASA GSFC Visitor Center on 31 May 2013, which coincided with the seventh anniversary of the passing of Yoram Kaufman, a modern pioneer in satellite-based aerosol science and the founder of AeroCenter. The central theme of this year's meeting was "current and future perspectives" of NASA's aerosol science and satellite missions.

aerocenter↗

Algorithms for Collision Detection Between a Point and a Moving Polygon, with Applications to Aircraft Weather Avoidance

This paper proposes mathematical definitions of functions that can be used to detect future collisions between a point and a moving polygon. The intended application is weather avoidance, where the given point represents an aircraft and bounding polygons are chosen to model regions with bad weather. Other applications could possibly include avoiding other moving obstacles. The motivation for the functions presented here is safety, and therefore they have been proved to be mathematically correct. The functions are being developed for inclusion in NASA's Stratway software tool, which allows low-fidelity air traffic management concepts to be easily prototyped and quickly tested.

Narkawicz, Anthony↗

Use of Polarimetric Radar Measurements to Constrain Simulated Convective Cell Evolution: A Pilot Study with Lagrangian Tracking

To probe the potential value of a radar-driven field campaign to constrain simulation of isolated convection subject to a strong aerosol perturbation, convective cells observed by the operational KHGX weather radar in the vicinity of Houston, Texas, are examined individually and statistically. Cells observed in a single case study of onshore flow conditions during July 2013 are first examined and compared with cells in a regional model simulation. Observed and simulated cells are objectively identified and tracked from observed or calculated positive specific differential phase (K(sub DP)) above the melting level, which is related to the presence of supercooled liquid water. Several observed and simulated cells are subjectively selected for further examination. Below the melting level, we compare sequential cross sections of retrieved and simulated raindrop size distribution parameters. Above the melting level, we examine time series of KDP and radar differential reflectivity (Z(sub DR)) statistics from observations and calculated from simulated supercooled rain properties, alongside simulated vertical wind and supercooled rain mixing ratio statistics. Results indicate that the operational weather radar measurements offer multiple constraints on the properties of simulated convective cells, with substantial value added from derived K(sub DP) and retrieved rain properties. The value of collocated three-dimensional lightning mapping array measurements, which are relatively rare in the continental US, supports the choice of Houston as a suitable location for future field studies to improve the simulation and understanding of convective updraft physics. However, rapid evolution of cells between routine volume scans motivates consideration of adaptive scan strategies or radar imaging technologies to amend operational weather radar capabilities. A 3-year climatology of isolated cell tracks, prepared using a more efficient algorithm, yields additional relevant information. Isolated cells are found within the KHGX domain on roughly 40 % of days year-round, with greatest concentration in the northwest quadrant, but roughly 5-fold more cells occur during June through September. During this enhanced occurrence period, the cells initiate following a strong diurnal cycle that peaks in the early afternoon, typically follow a south-to-north flow, and dissipate within 1 h, consistent with the case study examples. Statistics indicate that ∼ 150 isolated cells initiate and dissipate within 70 km of the KHGX radar during the enhanced occurrence period annually, and roughly 10 times as many within 200 km, suitable for multi-instrument Lagrangian observation strategies. In addition to ancillary meteorological and aerosol measurements, robust vertical wind speed retrievals would add substantial value to a radar-driven field campaign.

Fridlind, Ann M.↗

Validation of Regional CO2 Concentrations in the ECMWF Real-Time Analysis and Carbon-Tracker Reanalysis with Airborne Observations from ACT-A Field Campaign

Through verifying against hundreds of hours of airborne in-situ measurements from the NASA-sponsored Atmospheric Carbon and Transport – America (ACT-A) field campaign, this study systematically examines the regional uncertainties and biases of the carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations from two of the state-of-the-art global analysis products, namely the real-time analysis from the European Center (EC) for Medium Range Forecasting and NOAA’s near real-time Carbon Tracker (CT) reanalysis. It is found that both the EC and CT-NRT analyses agree reasonably well with the independent ACT-A flight-level CO2 measurements in the free troposphere but the uncertainties are considerably larger in the boundary layer during both the summer months of 2016 and the winter months of 2017. There are also strong variabilities in accuracy and bias between seasons, and across three different subregions in the United States (Mid-Atlantic, Midwest and South). Overall, the analysis uncertainties of the EC and CT-NRT analyses in terms of root-mean square deviations against airborne data are comparable to each other, both of which are between 1-2 ppm in the free troposphere but can be as large as 10 ppm near the surface, which are grossly consistent with the difference between the two analyses. The current study not only provides systematic uncertainty estimates for both analysis products over North America but also demonstrated that these two independent estimates can be used to approximate the overall regional CO2 analysis uncertainties. Both statistics are important in future studies in quantifying the uncertainties of regional carbon concentration and flux estimates, as well as in assessing the impact of regional transport through more refined regional modeling and analysis systems.

Chen, Hans W.↗

NASA Advanced Air Mobility (AAM)

This presentation will provide a UTM update, AAM overview (including details on the AAM Ecosystem Working Groups), and Regional Modeling and Simulations tool description.

Advance Air Mobility↗

Superorbital Modulation in the High-Mass X-ray Binary 4U 1538−52, and Possible Modulation in IGR J16393−4643

Hard X-ray observations with the Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory Burst Alert Telescope (BAT) reveal superorbital modulation in the wind-accreting supergiant high-mass X-ray binary (HMXB) 4U 1538−52 at a period of 14.9130±0.0026days that is consistent with four times the 3.73 day orbital period. These periods agree with a previously suggested correlation between superorbital and orbital periods in similar HMXBs. During the∼14 years of observations the superorbital modulation changes amplitude, and since ∼MJD 57,650 it was no longer detected in the power spectrum, although a peak near the second harmonic of this was present for some time. Measurements of the spin period of the neutron star in the system with the Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor show a long-term spin-down trend which halted towards the end of the lightcurve, suggesting a connection between ̇P spin and superorbital modulation, as proposed for 2S 0114+650.However, an earlier torque reversal from INTEGRAL observations was not associated with superorbital modulation changes. B and V band photometry from the Las Cumbres Observatory reveals orbital ellipsoidal photometric variability, but no superorbital optical modulation. However the photometry was obtained when the 14.9130 day period was no longer detected in the BAT power spectrum. We revisit possible superorbital modulation in BAT observations of IGR J16393−4643 but cannot conclusively determine whether this is present, although is not persistent. We consider superorbital modulation mechanisms, and suggest that the Corotation Interaction Region model, with small deviations from orbital synchronization, appears promising.

Robin H D Corbet↗

Intrinsic Lyα Profiles of High-velocity G, K, and M Dwarfs

Observations of HILymanα, the brightest UV emission line of late-type stars, are critical for understanding stellar chromospheres and transition regions, modeling photochemistry in exoplanet atmospheres, and measuring the abundances of neutral hydrogen and deuterium in the interstellar medium. Yet Lyαobservations are notoriously challenging owing to severe attenuation from interstellar gas, hindering our understanding of this important emission line’s basic morphology. We present high-resolution far- and near-UV spectroscopy of five G, K, and M dwarfs with radial velocities large enough to Doppler-shift the stellar Lyαemission line away from much of the interstellar attenuation, allowing the line core to be directly observed. We detect self-reversal in the Lyαemission-line core for all targets, and we show that the self-reversal depth decreases with increasing surface gravity. Mg II self-reversed emission-line profiles provide some useful information to constrain the Lyαline core, but the differences are significant enough that Mg II cannot be used directly as an intrinsic Lyαtemplate during reconstructions. We show that reconstructions that neglect self-reversal could overestimate intrinsic Lyαfluxes by as much as 60%–100% for G and K dwarfs and 40%–170% for M dwarfs. The five stars of our sample have low magnetic activity and subsolar metallicity; a larger sample size is needed to determine how sensitive these results are to these factors.

Allison Youngblood↗

Intrinsic Lyman Alpha Profiles of High-Velocity G, K, and M Dwarfs

Observations of H I Lyman alpha, the brightest UV emission line of late-type stars, are critical for understanding stellar chromospheres and transition regions, modeling photochemistry in exoplanet atmospheres, and measuring the abundances of neutral hydrogen and deuterium in the interstellar medium. Yet, Lyman alpha observations are notoriously challenging due to severe attenuation from interstellar gas, hindering our understanding of this important emission line's basic morphology. We present high-resolution far- and near-UV spectroscopy of five G, K, and M dwarfs with radial velocities large enough to Doppler shift the stellar Lyman alpha emission line away from much of the interstellar attenuation, allowing the line core to be directly observed. We detect self-reversal in the Lyman alpha emission line core for all targets, and we show that the self-reversal depth decreases with increasing surface gravity. Mg II self-reversed emission line profiles provide some useful information to constrain the Lyman alpha line core, but the differences are significant enough that Mg II cannot be used directly as an intrinsic Lyman alpha template during reconstructions. We show that reconstructions that neglect self-reversal could overestimate intrinsic Lyman alpha fluxes by 60-100% for G and K dwarfs and 40-170% for M dwarfs.

Allison Ann Youngblood↗

The Influence of Recent and Future Climate Change on Spring Arctic Cyclones

In recent decades, the Arctic has experienced rapid atmospheric warming and sea ice loss, with an ice-free Arctic projected by the end of this century. Cyclones are synoptic weather events that transport heat and moisture into the Arctic, and have complex impacts on sea ice, and the local and global climate. However, the effect of a changing climate on Arctic cyclone behavior remains poorly understood. This study uses high resolution (4 km), regional modeling techniques and downscaled global climate reconstructions and projections to examine how recent and future climatic changes alter cyclone behavior. Results suggest that recent climate change has not yet had an appreciable effect on Arctic cyclone characteristics. However, future sea ice loss and increasing surface temperatures drive large increases in the near-surface temperature gradient, sensible and latent heat fluxes, and convection during cyclones. The future climate can alter cyclone trajectories and increase and prolong intensity with greatly augmented wind speeds, temperatures, and precipitation. Such changes in cyclone characteristics could exacerbate sea ice loss and Arctic warming through positive feedbacks. The increasing extreme nature of these weather events has implications for local ecosystems, communities, and socio-economic activities.

Chelsea L Parker↗

Generating Global CH4 NASA GEOS Product by Assimilating TROPOMI

Radiative properties of methane (CH4) significantly contribute to climate change and the recent acceleration of global CH4 growth requires thorough investigation into its causes. Examination of temporal and spatial CH4 variability is crucial for better understanding the shifts that are currently taking place. Integrating different CH4 observations to create a reliable, easily to use global atmospheric CH4 product could contribute to assessment of emissions processes, but remains challenging due to the lack of long satellite data records. Here we present the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) based global CH4 product constrained by atmospheric transport from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) and assimilated CH4 from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI). This product uses the Constituent Data Assimilation System (CoDAS) component of the GEOS capability, which has been expanded and generalized to assimilate any satellite, ground-based, or in situ observation of atmospheric composition that can be expressed as a vertical sounding or point sample. The product is similar to the one generated by assimilating carbon dioxide (CO2) data into GEOS from Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2): OCO-2 GEOS Level 3 daily and monthly, 0.5x0.625 assimilated CO2 V10r. The preliminary product is investigated using a variety of quality check approaches with the help of in situ observations to examine bias correction, error inflation, and performance of the assimilation system. Potential applications of this approach include support for interpretation of high-resolution point source detection approaches, climate and greenhouse gas reanalyses, and boundary conditions for regional modeling approaches.

Nikolay Balashov↗

Detection of CH 4 Hotspots from NASA’s GEOS Composition Analysis System

Recent research indicates that 8 to 12% of the global oil and gas production methane emissions could be attributed to ultra-emitters, which result in high concentration ‘hotspots’ near point sources. Identifying these emissions in near real time provides useful information to the policy makers and private industry, who are working to reduce their impact. To meet this need, scientists are increasingly analyzing satellite data from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) instrument aboard ESA’s Sentinel 5-Precursor mission. While direct analysis of TROPOMI level 2 swath data has been successful in identifying some large emission events, identifying hotpots is challenging because of the imaging noise due to a variety of artifacts and limits in daily coverage. Here we explore possible methodologies to detect methane hotspots using a new, gap-filled, and temporally continuous methane product from NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Constituent Data Assimilation System (CoDAS), which assimilates column averaged methane mole fractions from the TROPOMI with capabilities to assimilate other remote sensing measurements. The CoDAS has been expanded from a heritage of stratospheric composition and carbon dioxide assimilation allowing for the support of regional modeling, validation with non-coincident operations, and merging variety of datasets. The current work mainly explores Observing System Simulation Experiments with methane GEOS simulations without assimilation to prepare the groundwork for further experiments with assimilated TROPOMI. First, known hotspots based on the known inventory are identified to demonstrate the capability of the system to point out emission hotspots. In the next step, a variety of machine learning techniques such as Self-Organizing Maps and Deep Learning are explored to automate detection of the plumes. Finally, a few approaches to quantify emissions from the identified hotspots are presented and are evaluated against the inventory. The effort is directed toward a future evaluation of the CoDAS based methane monitoring system’s ability to successfully detect and quantify hotspots.

Nikolay Balashov↗

Multifidelity Optimization with Transonic Flutter Constraints

This work considers static and dynamic aeroelastic optimization of a cantilevered platewing in transonic flow. Low- and high-fidelity aeroelastic predictions are fed into a standard trust region model management scheme in order to efficiently solve this expensive optimization problem with multifidelity methods. Differences in fidelity are entirely driven by different aerodynamic solvers: linear panel methods for the low-fidelity method, and inviscid CFD-based solvers for the high-fidelity response. The optimization problem utilizes shape, sizing, and trim variables to satisfy stress, trim, and flutter constraints, and is solved across a range of subsonic and transonic Mach numbers. The multifidelity method is able to provide a speed-up for all cases considered here, despite sizable inaccuracies in the low-fidelity response for transonic flows.

Bret K Stanford↗

HMI Data Driven Magnetohydrodynamic Model Predicted Active Region Photospheric Heating Rates: Their Scale Invariant, Flare Like Power Law Distributions, and Their Possible Association With Flares

There are many flare forecasting models. For an excellent review and comparison of some of them see Barnes et al. (2016). All these models are successful to some degree, but there is a need for better models. We claim the most successful models explicitly or implicitly base their forecasts on various estimates of components of the photospheric current density J, based on observations of the photospheric magnetic field B. However, none of the models we are aware of compute the complete J. We seek to develop a better model based on computing the complete photospheric J. Initial results from this model are presented in this talk. We present a data driven, near photospheric, 3 D, non-force free magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model that computes time series of the total J, and associated resistive heating rate in each pixel at the photosphere in the neutral line regions (NLRs) of 14 active regions (ARs). The model is driven by time series of B measured by the Helioseismic & Magnetic Imager (HMI) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite. Spurious Doppler periods due to SDO orbital motion are filtered out of the time series of B in every AR pixel. Errors in B due to these periods can be significant.

Goodman, Michael L.↗

Technical note: AQMEII4 Activity 1: evaluation of wet and dry deposition schemes as an integral part of regional-scale air quality models

We present in this technical note the research protocol for phase 4 of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII4). This research initiative is divided into two activities, collectively having three goals: (i) to define the current state of the science with respect to representations of wet and especially dry deposition in regional models, (ii) to quantify the extent to which different dry deposition parameterizations influence retrospective air pollutant concentration and flux predictions, and (iii) to identify, through the use of a common set of detailed diagnostics, sensitivity simulations, model evaluation, and reduction of input uncertainty, the specific causes for the current range of these predictions. Activity 1 is dedicated to the diagnostic evaluation of wet and dry deposition processes in regional air quality models (described in this paper), and Activity 2 to the evaluation of dry deposition point models against ozone flux measurements at multiple towers with multiyear observations (to be described in future submissions as part of the special issue on AQMEII4). The scope of this paper is to present the scientific protocols for Activity 1, as well as to summarize the technical information associated with the different dry deposition approaches used by the participating research groups of AQMEII4. In addition to describing all common aspects and data used for this multi-model evaluation activity, most importantly, we present the strategy devised to allow a common process-level comparison of dry deposition obtained from models using sometimes very different dry deposition schemes. The strategy is based on adding detailed diagnostics to the algorithms used in the dry deposition modules of existing regional air quality models, in particular archiving diagnostics specific to land use–land cover (LULC) and creating standardized LULC categories to facilitate cross-comparison of LULC-specific dry deposition parameters and processes, as well as archiving effective conductance and effective flux as means for comparing the relative influence of different pathways towards the net or total dry deposition. This new approach, along with an analysis of precipitation and wet deposition fields, will provide an unprecedented process-oriented comparison of deposition in regional air quality models. Examples of how specific dry deposition schemes used in participating models have been reduced to the common set of comparable diagnostics defined for AQMEII4 are also presented.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Natural hydrocarbon emission estimates based on Landsat data as an input to a regional ozone photochemical model

Landsat-derived forest cover data were employed with non-methane hydrocarbon (NMHC) emission rates in a model to quantify summer forest ozone production for the Tidewater Region of Virginia. The areal extent of the three major forest types - coniferous, deciduous, and mixed - were determined from Landsat data on two adjacent scenes, using an unsupervised approach to spectral signature development. The forest type results from both data sets were verified in an extensive accuracy assessment and merged to provide regional statistics for total acreages, percent forest, and error rates. The Landsat statistics were incorporated into forest type emission factor equations to produce an estimated emission rate for natural hydrocarbons from forests. This estimate, along with measured rates for nitrogen oxides and NMHC from anthropogenic sources, was provided as input to computer simulations of atmospheric ozone generation for the Tidewater Region using a photochemical oxident model.

Middleton, E. M.↗