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At least 415 records · Page 23

Failure Analysis–Informed Risk Assessment Framework for Geological Carbon Storage Using Numerical Simulation and Machine Learning

Geological carbon storage (GCS) is recognized as a critical technology for achieving large-scale reductions in anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. Ensuring long-term containment and safety requires robust risk assessment frameworks that account for geological uncertainty and identify potential failure scenarios. Among various indicators, the area of review (AoR) serves as a key metric for evaluating storage performance, regulatory compliance, and monitoring design, as it delineates the spatial extent impacted by pressure buildup and plume migration. However, conventional AoR-based risk assessments typically perturb parameters within narrow uncertainty bounds, potentially overlooking rare but high-impact events arising from extreme geological conditions. In this study, we present a failure analysis–informed risk assessment framework for large-scale GCS projects to improve site prescreening and monitoring design. A suite of 300 numerical simulations was generated using stochastic geological models that vary five key parameters: net-to-gross ratio, anisotropy azimuth, porosity multiplier, permeability multiplier, and vertical-to-horizontal permeability ratio. Among these, 200 realizations represent normal geological uncertainty, while 100 additional cases explore extreme yet plausible conditions for failure-case analysis. The AoR was simulated and computed from pressure and CO 2 saturation fields, where the baseline AoR boundary, representing the extent predicted under typical geological uncertainty, was defined as the union of 200 normal-range simulations, and failure was identified when extreme-range cases exceeded this baseline. Results show that incorporating broader parameter uncertainty produces significantly larger AoR extents, underscoring the potential underestimation of risk under conventional uncertainty ranges. Furthermore, spatial probability maps derived from failure-induced AoR exceedance identify regions requiring enhanced monitoring attention. Various machine learning (ML)–based classifiers were developed to predict failure occurrence from geological parameters, with the random forest model achieving the highest performance (F1-score of 0.986). Consistent findings from correlation coefficient, feature importance, and Sobol sensitivity analyses reveal that low net-to-gross ratios and permeability multipliers are the dominant risk drivers, reflecting reduced reservoir connectivity and limited pressure dissipation. Altogether, these results provide a novel framework for risk-informed site prescreening and monitoring design that explicitly considers rare but high-impact geological scenarios in GCS projects.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Weather and climate extremes in a changing Arctic

Weather and climate extremes are increasingly occurring in the Arctic. Here, in this Review, we evaluate historical and projected changes in rare Arctic extremes across the atmosphere, cryosphere and ocean and elucidate their driving mechanisms. Clear shifts occur in mean and extreme distributions after ~2000. For instance, pre-2000 to post-2000 observational probabilities of 1.5 standard deviation events increase by 20% for atmospheric heat waves, 76.7% for Atlantic layer warm events, 83.5% for Arctic sea ice loss and 62.9% for Greenland Ice Sheet melt extent — in many cases, low probability, rare extreme events in the early period become the norm in the latter period. These observed changes can be explained using a ‘pushing and triggering’ concept, representing interplay between external forcing and internal variability: long-term warming destabilizes the climate system and ‘pushes’ it to a new state, allowing subsequent variability associated with large-scale atmosphere–ocean–ice interactions and synoptic systems to ‘trigger’ extreme events over different timescales. Ongoing anthropogenic warming is expected to further increase the frequency and magnitude of extremes, such that simulated probabilities of 1.5 standard deviation events increase by 72.6% for atmospheric heat waves, 68.7% for Atlantic layer warm events and 93.3% for Greenland Ice Sheet melt rate between historic (1984–2014) and future (2069–2099) periods under a very high emission scenario. Future research should prioritize the development of physically based metrics, enhance high-resolution observation and modelling capabilities and improve understanding of multiscale Arctic climate drivers.

atmospheric dynamics↗

Discovery of new isotopes in the fragmentation of 82 Se and insights into their production

The production cross sections of neutron-rich nuclei for elements just above 60 Ca were measured at the Facility for Rare Isotope Beams (FRIB). Four previously unobserved isotopes ( 63 Sc, 65,66 Ti, and 68 V) were produced, separated, and identified for the first time using the Advanced Rare Isotope Separator (ARIS). One event was found to be consistent with 61 Ca . The new isotopes were created through the interaction of an 82 Se beam with a carbon target at an energy of 228 MeV/𝑢 and a primary beam current of 1.07 p⁢µ⁢A. The event-by-event particle identification of the mass number (𝐴), atomic number (𝑍), and ionic charge state (𝑞) for the reaction products was achieved by combining measurements of energy loss, time of flight, magnetic rigidity, and total kinetic energy. This successful search for new isotopes, conducted at the beginning of FRIB's third year of operation, highlights the facility's discovery potential, which will continue to grow as the beam current increases. The production cross sections were analyzed in the context of the newly developed Δ⁢𝐵⁢𝐸 systematics that provides trends in neutron-rich regions and increased sensitivity to nuclear binding, an important nuclear structure observable. Furthermore, the new systematics addresses gaps in 𝑄 𝑔 -based methods commonly used to interpret the production cross sections of light neutron-rich elements, and provides an efficient empirical approach to describe cross-section trends across isotopic chains. Good agreement with the measured data was obtained when the Δ⁢𝐵⁢𝐸 systematics and abrasion-ablation calculations were performed using the Hartree-Fock-Bogoliubov (HFB-22) mass table.

59 ≤ A ≤ 89↗

Search for Dark Photons in Rare $Z$ Boson Decays with the ATLAS Detector

A search for events with a dark photon produced in association with a dark Higgs boson via rare decays of the standard model Z boson is presented, using 139 fb –1 of $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV proton-proton collision data recorded by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. The dark boson decays into a pair of dark photons, and at least two of the three dark photons must each decay into a pair of electrons or muons, resulting in at least two same-flavor opposite-charge lepton pairs in the final state. The data are found to be consistent with the background prediction, and upper limits are set on the dark photon’s coupling to the dark Higgs boson times the kinetic mixing between the standard model photon and the dark photon, α D ϵ 2 , in the dark photon mass range of [5, 40] GeV except for the $Υ$ mass window [8.8, 11.1] GeV. This search explores new parameter space not previously excluded by other experiments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Kinetic Monte Carlo Framework for Coupled Degradation and Dehydration of Anion Exchange Membranes

Kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC) simulations, augmented with temporal-acceleration schemes, can efficiently handle stiff reaction-transport networks when fast processes rapidly relax to quasi-equilibrium on a fixed lattice. However, in glassy anion-exchange membranes (AEM), rare and irreversible chemical degradation events continuously reshape the nanoscale morphology, and the associated hydration and transport degrees of freedom remain far from a well-defined local equilibrium. This combination of evolving state space and nonequilibrated fast dynamics lies outside the scope of existing kMC acceleration frameworks. Here, to address this challenge, we introduce an auxiliary-particle kinetic Monte Carlo (AP-kMC) scheme. In AP-kMC, short-lived mobile particles spawned at degradation sites execute hop, water-elimination, and decay moves, enforcing rapid local relaxation of the hydration structure while preserving the stochastic rules of kMC. Parameterized with molecular-dynamics morphologies and experimental solution degradation kinetics, AP-kMC reproduces the evolution of ion-exchange capacity, water uptake, and conductivity, and reveals a feedback loop in which poorly hydrated sites degrade first and each degradation event induces further local dehydration. The resulting thinning and fragmentation of water channels cause loss of hydrophilic percolation and abrupt conductivity collapse well before complete charge loss. AP-kMC thus reframes AEM durability as a coupled degradation–drying–percolation problem and provides a transferable strategy to simulate reactive, out-of-equilibrium polymer electrolytes where local solvation controls reactivity.

organic↗

Towards Online Machine Learning in DUNE Data Acquisition

Processing the large volumes of data produced by liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) experiments presents a significant challenge, especially those at the scale of DUNE. This is a particular challenge when aiming to trigger on low-energy neutrinos from core-collapse supernovae, which are typically buried in a high-rate radiological background. To enable real-time event selection suitable for such rare signals, we are developing machine learning based data filtering methods. In order to demonstrate the feasibility of this approach, we implemented such pipeline using the ICEBERG detector at Fermilab as a small-scale LArTPC, with a focus on identifying Michel electrons as a proxy for low-energy neutrino interactions. This poster will present the current status of integrating these machine learning models into the data acquisition (DAQ) system of this detector.

Dalager, Olivia [Fermilab]↗

The Young Supernova Experiment Data Release 1 (YSE DR1): Light Curves and Photometric Classification of 1975 Supernovae

We present the Young Supernova Experiment Data Release 1 (YSE DR1), comprised of processed multicolor PanSTARRS1 griz and Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) gr photometry of 1975 transients with host–galaxy associations, redshifts, spectroscopic and/or photometric classifications, and additional data products from 2019 November 24 to 2021 December 20. YSE DR1 spans discoveries and observations from young and fast-rising supernovae (SNe) to transients that persist for over a year, with a redshift distribution reaching z ≈ 0.5. We present relative SN rates from YSE's magnitude- and volume-limited surveys, which are consistent with previously published values within estimated uncertainties for untargeted surveys. We combine YSE and ZTF data, and create multisurvey SN simulations to train the ParSNIP and SuperRAENN photometric classification algorithms; when validating our ParSNIP classifier on 472 spectroscopically classified YSE DR1 SNe, we achieve 82% accuracy across three SN classes (SNe Ia, II, Ib/Ic) and 90% accuracy across two SN classes (SNe Ia, core-collapse SNe). Our classifier performs particularly well on SNe Ia, with high (>90%) individual completeness and purity, which will help build an anchor photometric SNe Ia sample for cosmology. We then use our photometric classifier to characterize our photometric sample of 1483 SNe, labeling 1048 (~71%) SNe Ia, 339 (~23%) SNe II, and 96 (~6%) SNe Ib/Ic. YSE DR1 provides a training ground for building discovery, anomaly detection, and classification algorithms, performing cosmological analyses, understanding the nature of red and rare transients, exploring tidal disruption events and nuclear variability, and preparing for the forthcoming Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Observations of Earthward and tailward propagating flux rope plasmoids: Expanding the plasmoid model of geomagnetic substorms

A survey of Interplanetary Monitoring Platform (IMP 8) magnetometer data for plasmoid signatures during magnetospheric intervals from 1981 through 1983 found 16 plasmoids and 37 traveling compression regions as well as two earthward propagating flux ropes and 19 south-north bipolar lobe signatures. The properties of these relatively near-Earth plasmoids, traveling compression regions, and earthward propagating flux ropes and a qualitative model for their formation are presented. The plasmoids have estimated sizes, durations, magnetic field signatures, downtail velocities, and substorm associations very similar to those of the plasmoids identified in International Sun-Earth Explorer (ISEE) 3 deep-tail observations. The occurrence frequency of these near-Earth plasma sheet plasmoids is significantly smaller than that of plasmoids found in the mid- and deep tail with ISEE 3. The earthward propagating flux ropes are characterized by a south-north bipolar turning in the Geocentric Solar Magnetospheric (GSM) B(sub z) component, are localized near the noon-midnight meridional plane, and are strongly correlated with interplanetary magnetic field B(sub z) north and small isolated high latitude geomagnetic substorms. These events are also apparently very rare and/or spatially localized. We propose that these structures are 'proto-plasmoids,' i.e., plasmoids for which near-Earth magnetic reconnection stopped before all the closed plasma sheet field lines were reconnected. The proto-plasmoids are then 'trapped' inside closed magnetic field lines and propagate earthward owing to the effect of the distant X-line's earthward plasma flow. We suggest that the two different 'types' of plasmoids are due to the different energy states of the magnetosphere during periods of southward and northward interplanetary magnetic field.

Moldwin, Mark B.↗

X-Ray Emission from an Asymmetric Blast Wave and a Massive White Dwarf in the Gamma Ray Emitting Nova V407 CYG

Classical nova events in symbiotic stars, although rare, offer a unique opportunity to probe the interaction between ejecta and a dense environment in stellar explosions. In this work, we use X-ray data obtained with Swift and Suzaku during the recent classical nova outburst in V407 Cyg to explore such an interaction. We find evidence of both equilibrium and non-equilibrium ionization plasmas at the time of peak X-ray brightness, indicating a strong asymmetry in the density of the emitting region. Comparing a simple model to the data, we find that the X-ray evolution is broadly consistent with nova ejecta driving a forward shock into the dense wind of the Mira companion. We detect a highly absorbed soft X-ray component in the spectrum during the first 50 days of the outburst that is consistent with supersoft emission from the nuclear burning white dwarf. The high temperature and short turn off time of this emission component, in addition to the observed breaks in the optical and UV lightcurves, indicate that the white dwarf in the binary is extremely massive. Finally, we explore the connections between the X-ray and GeV-ray evolution, and propose that the gamma ray turn-off is due to the stalling of the forward shock as the ejecta reach the red giant surface.

Nelson, Thomas↗

Reply to Comment by Laprise on 'the Added Value to Global Model Projections of Climate Change by Dynamical Downscaling: a Case Study over the Continental U.S. Using the GISS-ModelE2 and WRF Models'

In his comment, Laprise raises several points that we agree merit consideration. His primary critique is that our study [Racherla et al., 2012] tested the ability of the WRF regional climate model to reproduce historical temperature and precipitation change relative to the driving global climate model (GCM) using only a single simulation rather than an ensemble. He asserts that the observed changes are smaller than the internal variability in the climate system (i.e., not statistically significant) and that thus a single simulation should not necessarily be able to capture the observations. Laprise points out that the statistical signal is reduced for a multi-decadal trend such as the one we analyzed in comparison with mean climatology and cites two studies showing that for particular climate parameters it can take any years for a signal to be discerned over internal variability. He states that The results of theexperiment as designed were strongly influenced by the presence of internal variability and sampling errors,which masked the rather small climate changes that may have occurred as a consequence of changes inforcing during the period considered. While Laprise discusses statistics in general terms at some length, for the actual climate trends examined in our study, he offers no evidence that the forced signal was smallcompared with internal variability. The two studies he cites [de Ela et al., 2013; Maraun, 2013] do not provide convincing evidence as they concern climate variables averaged over different times and areas. One in fact examines extreme precipitation events, which by definition are rare and thus have a lower significance level. We accept the general point that it is important to consider internal variability, and as noted in our paper we agree that an ensemble of simulations is in principle an optimal, though computationally expensive, approach. While we did not present the statistical significance of the observations in our original paper, we have now evaluated those for the regional temperature trends used in our study to evaluate the added value of WRF and thus can analyze data as to the magnitude of the trends with respect to internal variability.

climate↗

Leveraging Human Performance Data to Change the Narrative that People are the Safety Problem

The study of errors and failure has a long and productive history in the behavioral sciences. By studying how systems fail, we rule out various mechanisms for how those systems might work, thereby refining our theories of how they actually work. Human performance, however, includes more than errors; human performance comprises both failures and successes. A systematic bias to collect and analyze data only on error affects the decisions we make as a community by promoting the narrative that “people are the safety problem.” This narrative manifests in both obvious and subtle ways in the design of systems intended for human use. When the only safety data that are available are about human failure, then “data-driven” designs can only consider that humans fail. Changing this narrative will depend on new data and new ways to examine data – specifically, data on the processes by which human create and contribute to safety. An alternate narrative is that people represent a primary source of safety, through their capability to anticipate, monitor for, respond to, and learn from expected and unexpected change. This presentation will describe research efforts to expand the range of safety-relevant events to include not just rare safety failures but frequent safety successes. These efforts include use of data from both operations and simulations to develop methods and metrics for learning from structured observation, self-report, and system data.

Jon Holbrook↗

νBDX: a Coherent Elastic Neutrino Nucleus Scattering (CEνNS) experiment at Jefferson Lab

Particle physics is an ever-changing field seeking to explain phenomena that lie at the limits of our current knowledge. Among discovered and hypothesized interactions, Coherent Elastic Neutrino-Nucleus Scattering (CE?NS) stands out as a fascinating and elusive phenomenon, offering a unique window into the nature of neutrinos and their interactions with matter. CE?NS, a process predicted by the Standard Model, represents one of the subtle ways in which neutrinos can interact with atomic nuclei. Unlike other neutrinonucleus interactions, CE?NS occurs coherently, meaning that the entire nucleus collectively responds to the neutrino-mediated weak force, resulting in small energy transfers to the nucleus as a whole. The extremely rare nature of CE?NS events presents a formidable challenge to experimenters seeking to detect and study these interactions. Recent advances in detector technologies and the implementation of large-scale experiments, such as coherent neutrino scattering experiments at research facilities around the world, have opened up new avenues for exploring this elusive phenomenon. These experiments aim not only to observe CE?NS directly but also to extract valuable information on neutrino properties, nuclear structure, and potential deviations from the Standard Model. This thesis aims to study the feasibility of an experiment to study CE?NS at The Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility, Newport News, VA, USA. This would be an experiment that exploits the production of neutrinos by an electron beam dumped on a thick target (the beam dump). The large quantity of neutrinos produced and their energy profile are well suited to the purpose of studying the CE?NS. In my thesis, I will start from previous studies on CE?NS and from theoretical considerations regarding the process, then quantify the expected events for a hypothetical experiment and possible backgrounds through simulations aimed at optimizing the geometry of the future detector. I will also show some tests on selected detector components that will be part of a first prototype.

Grazzi, Stefano↗

Human Performance Contributions to Safety in Commercial Aviation

Every day in aviation, pilots, air traffic controllers, and other front-line personnel perform countless correct judgments and actions in a variety of operational environments. These judgments and actions are often the difference between an accident and a non-event. Ironically, data on these behaviors are rarely collected or analyzed. Data-driven decisions about safety management and design of safety-critical systems are limited by the available data, which influence how decision makers characterize problems and identify solutions. Large volumes of data are collected on the failures and errors that result in infrequent incidents and accidents, but in the absence of data on behaviors that result in routine successful outcomes, safety management and system design decisions are based on a small sample of nonrepresentative safety data. This assessment aimed to find and document “safety successes” made possible by human operators. With many Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) Programs and Projects focusing on increased automation and autonomy and decreased human involvement, failure to fully consider the human contributions to successful system performance in civil aviation represents a significant risk — a risk that has not been recognized to date. Without understanding how humans contribute to safety, any estimate of predicted safety of autonomous capabilities is incomplete and inherently suspect. Furthermore, understanding the ways in which humans contribute to safety can promote strategic interactions among safety technologies, functions, procedures and the people using them. Without this understanding, the full benefits of an integrated, optimized human/technology or autonomous system will not be realized. Historically, safety has been consistently defined in terms of the occurrence of accidents or recognized risks (i.e., in terms of things that go wrong). These adverse outcomes are explained by identifying their causes, and safety is restored by eliminating or mitigating these causes. An alternative to this approach is to focus on what goes right and identify how to replicate that process. Focusing on the rare cases of failures attributed to “human error” provides little information about why human performance routinely prevents adverse events. Hollnagel has proposed that things go right because people continuously adjust their work to match their operating conditions. These adjustments become increasingly important as systems continue to grow in complexity. Thus, the definition of safety should reflect not only “avoiding things that go wrong” but “ensuring that things go right.” The basis for safety management requires developing an understanding of everyday activities. However, few mechanisms to monitor everyday work exist in the aviation domain, which limits opportunities to learn how designs function in reality. This concept of safety thinking and safety management is reflected in the emerging field of resilience engineering. According to Hollnagel, a system is resilient if it can sustain required operations under expected and unexpected conditions by adjusting its functioning prior to, during, or following changes, disturbances, and opportunities. To explore “positive” behaviors that contribute to resilient performance in commercial aviation, the assessment team examined a range of existing sources of data about pilot and air traffic control (ATC) tower controller performance, including subjective interviews with domain experts and objective aircraft flight data records. These data were used to identify strategies that support resilient performance, methods for exploring and refining those strategies in existing data, and proposed methods for capturing and analyzing new data.

Null, Cynthia H.↗

Chondrule-like particles provide evidence of early Archean meteorite impacts, South Africa and western Australia

The evolution of the Earth and the Earth crust was studied. Two layers, that contain abundant unusual spherical particles which closely resemble chondroules were identified. Chondrules occur on small quantities in lunar soil, however, they are rare in terrestrial settings. Some chondrules in meteorites were formed on the surfaces of planet sized bodies during impact events. Similar chondrule like objects are extremely rare in the younger geologic record and these abundances are unknown in ancient deposits, except in meteorites. It is suggested that a part of the Earth's terminal bombardment history, and conditions favoring chondrule formation existed on the early Earth.

Lowe, D. R.↗

Can Asian Dust Trigger Phytoplankton Blooms in the Oligotrophic Northern South China Sea?

Satellite data estimate a high dust deposition flux (approximately 18 g m(exp-2 a(exp-1) into the northern South China Sea (SCS). However, observational evidence concerning any biological response to dust fertilization is sparse. In this study, we combined long-term aerosol and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) measurements from satellite sensors (MODIS and SeaWiFS) with a 16-year record of dust events from surface PM10 observations to investigate dust transport, flux, and the changes in Chl-a concentration over the northern SCS. Our result revealed that readily identifiable strong dust events over this region, although relatively rare (6 cases since 1994) and accounting for only a small proportion of the total dust deposition (approximately 0.28 g m(exp-2 a(exp-1), do occur and could significantly enhance phytoplankton blooms. Following such events, the Chl-a concentration increased up to 4-fold, and generally doubled the springtime background value (0.15 mg m(exp-3). We suggest these heavy dust events contain readily bioavailable iron and enhance the phytoplankton growth in the oligotrophic northern SCS.

northern South China sea↗

Changing Trends in Drought Patterns over the Northeastern United States Using Multiple Large Ensemble Datasets

Since the infamous extreme drought of the 1960s, the climate of the northeastern United States (NEUS) has generally trended toward warmer and wetter conditions. Nonetheless, there is mounting evidence that short-term droughts will continue to pose a significant risk for this region. To better explore the processes governing events such as these, climate models have adopted more complex representations of the fully coupled atmosphere–land–ocean–sea ice system; however, large uncertainties in future projections still persist, with internal variability necessitating large ensembles to understand trends in both rare and high-impact extreme events such as rapidly developing droughts (a term here that includes flash droughts developing on monthly scales). In this study, seven large ensemble (LE) models are employed to answer the outstanding question: How are the frequency and character of drought in the NEUS changing under a warming climate? We find that most LE models indicate the NEUS will experience a long-term wetting trend with more “extremely wet” months, but also more frequent short-term extreme droughts. These changes are associated with increasing precipitation, atmospheric water demand, and climate variability. We also conclude that discrepant trends in precipitation and evapotranspiration variability will lead to increasing anticorrelation of these variables, which is relevant to the intensification of rapidly developing drought, particularly in the spring season. These changes are associated with an increase in evapotranspiration from plants, brought by an earlier emergence of the growing season and denser vegetation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Using Boosted Decision Trees to Select High Quality Measurements in the Mu2e Experiment at Fermilab

This thesis presents the implementation and evaluation of a Boosted Decision Tree (BDT) model to improve the selection of high-quality track measurements in the Mu2e experiment at Fermilab. The Mu2e experiment is a high-energy physics experiments seeking to observe a rare theoretical physics process known as Charged Lepton Flavor Violation. A significant challenge faced by the Mu2e experiment are so-called background events, which are events whose data mimics that of the rare physics process the experiment seeks to observe. Without a mechanism to reduce background, it would be impossible to know whether Charged Lepton Flavor Violation occurred or not. To this end, high-quality track measurements must be distinguished from low-quality track measurements. A track can be conceived of as the reconstructed path of a particle that traveled through the Mu2e detector. In addition to other data, data about such tracks is stored using a C++-based framework, specific to the domain of high-energy physics, known as ROOT. A boosted decision tree model was trained using ROOT’s Toolkit For Multivariate Analysis by leveraging variables ancillary to track quality. In evaluation, the BDT achieves a ROC-AUC of 0.927 in discriminating good-quality tracks from poor-quality tracks. Such a score is indicative of both strong discrimination and strong generalization. Subsequently, it is shown that applying a BDT-based quality cut to the distribution of particle momenta significantly enhances the signal-to-background distinction for signal electrons, paving the way for improved sensitivity to Charged Lepton Flavor Violation.

Mullany, Brendan T. [Drew U.] (ORCID:0009000818888↗

Vertical structure models of the 1990 equatorial disturbance on Saturn

In September 1990, an atmospheric disturbance in the form of an abnormally high albedo area developed in the equatorial region of Saturn. Events of this nature are exceedingly rare for this planet as they have been detected in the equatorial region on only two other occasions in over a century. In ongoing monitoring of the atmospheres of the outer planets, CCD imaging observations of Saturn by New Mexico State University's Tortugas Mountain Station were made before, during, and after the disturbance's formation through both broad-band filters and narrow-band visible/near-IR filters centered in methane absorption bands. Also, multispectral Hubble Space Telescope observations were made within weeks of the event and later in 1991. These observations were calibrated and scans of reflectivity at constant latitude are being modeled with a vertically inhomogeneous, multiple scattering model previously used to model Jupiter's South Equatorial Belt brightening event in 1989. In addition, the reflectivity of the disturbance as a function of the scattering angles is being obtained so as to model this feature's vertical structure in particular. A preliminary report of the modeling results will be presented.

Kuehn, D. M.↗