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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

CCF Parameter Estimations, 2020 Update

This report documents the quantitative results of the common-cause failure (CCF) data collection effort (which included data through 2020) and summarizes the results of the parameter estimation quantification process performed on CCF data in the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) CCF database. This is the 2020 update to NUREG/CR-5497, updating data and parameter estimations for CCFs. This release, CCF Parameter Estimation 2020, reflects the CCF data contained within the CCF database, https://rads.inl.gov/Pages/CCF.aspx, by executing (in August 2021) the CCF query rules in the folder SPAR Rules 2020. The data covers the period from 1/1/2006 to 12/31/2020, the most recent 15-year period in which data are available. The use of the most recent rolling 15-year data in parameter estimation differs from previous updates, in which 1/1/1997 was used as the starting date (e.g., 1/1/1997 to 12/31/2015 for the 2015 update, 1/1/1997 to 12/31/2012 for the 2012 update). The new date range (i.e., the most recent 15-year period), was selected for this CCF update so as to be consistent with the date range chosen for the component reliability parameter estimation, and with the effort to include sufficient data for analysis while simultaneously reflecting the most recent industry performance. These results are appropriate for use in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) studies, including the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models of commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the U.S. This update may be referred as: U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, "CCF Parameter Estimations, 2020 Update," https://nrcoe.inl.gov/publicdocs/CCF/ccfparamest2020.pdf, November 2021.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
NASA NTRS2010

Improving Bone-Health Monitoring in Astronauts: Recommended Use of Quantitative Computed Tomography [QCT] for Clinical and Operational Decisions by NASA

DXA measurement of areal bone mineral density [aBMD,g/cm2] is required by NASA for assessing skeletal integrity in astronauts. Due to the abundance of population-based data that correlate hip and spine BMDs to fragility fractures, BMD is widely applied as a predictor of fractures in the general aging population. In contrast, QCT is primarily a research technology that measures three-dimensional , volumetric BMD (vBMD,mg/cm3) of bone and is therefore capable of differentiating between cortical and trabecular components. Additionally, when combined with Finite Element Modeling [FEM], a computational tool, QCT data can be used to estimate the whole bone strength of the hip [FE strength] for a specific load vector. A recent report demonstrated that aBMD failed to correlate with incurred changes in FE strength (for fall and stance loading) by astronauts over typical 180-day ISS (International Space Station) missions. While there are no current guidelines for using QCT data in clinical practice, QCT increases the understanding of how bone structure and mineral content are affected by spaceflight and recovery on Earth. In order to understand/promote/consider the use of QCT, NASA convened a panel of clinicians specializing in osteoporosis. After reviewing the available, albeit limited, medical and research information from long-duration astronauts (e.g., data from DXA, QCT, FEM, biochemistry analyses, medical records and in-flight exercise performance) the panelists were charged with recommending how current and future research data and analyses could inform clinical and operational decisions. The Panel recommended that clinical bone tests on astronauts should include QCT (hip and lumbar spine) for occupational risk surveillance and for the estimation of whole hip bone strength as derived by FEM. FE strength will provide an improved index that NASA could use to select astronauts of optimal bone health for extended duration missions, for repeat missions or for specific mission operations.

Sibonga, J. D.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Generic Post-Closure Safety Assessment for Deep Borehole Disposal of Heat-Generating Waste - 20451

The deep borehole disposal (DBD) concept for high-activity waste consists of drilling a large-diameter borehole into crystalline basement rock to a depth of about 5,000 m, placing waste packages in the lower portion of the borehole - the waste emplacement zone - and sealing and plugging the upper portion of the borehole with a combination of bentonite, cement plugs, and sand or crushed rock ballast. The waste emplacement zone is several times deeper than typical mined repositories and is well below the typical maximum depth of fresh groundwater resources. Recent work describes a generic reference case for deep borehole disposal of Cs and Sr capsules stored at the Hanford Site. Two scenarios are described: an undisturbed (nominal) scenario, and disturbed scenario, in which a waste package is stuck adjacent to a transmissive fracture zone in crystalline basement. Simulations of the processes affecting radionuclide release and transport in the two scenarios provide the basis for quantitative post-closure performance assessment (PA) of the reference case. This paper presents a probabilistic PA of the stuck waste package scenario, i.e. uncertainties affecting radionuclide mobilization and transport are propagated through 200 realizations of a predictive model to quantify uncertainties in predicted radionuclide concentrations within the borehole and the fracture zone. Simulations predict no radionuclide transport in the borehole to distances greater than 100 m above the stuck waste package. An assumed lateral pressure gradient results in predictions of limited radionuclide transport in the fracture zone at a lateral distance of 200 m from the stuck waste package. These results complement previous results for the nominal scenario and contribute to the development of a generic safety case for DBD. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Relating Measured Component Damage to Assessed Component Reliability in Reliability Integrity Management (RIM)

There is currently no widely agreed detailed general method for licensing a novel plant incorporating novel materials (or materials being deployed in novel environments); in many such situations, there are no directly applicable engineering code cases for decision-makers (including regulators) to rely on. It may be possible to develop an approach to licensing such a plant that is based on the Reliability and Integrity Management (RIM) approach delineated in ASME BPVC Section XI Division 2. NRC Regulatory Guide 1.246, Rev.0, endorses, with conditions, the subject portion of the ASME Code. But that portion of the ASME code is written at a very high level, and there are fundamental technical challenges associated with applying it literally to licensing a real plant. In the RIM approach, applicants need to do the following (among other things): • Allocate target reliabilities to structures, systems, and components (SSCs) that collectively support the top-level plant safety and availability objectives; • Understand failure modes of those SSCs, and the degradation mechanisms that could lead to those failure modes; • Develop and propose a program of surveillances that will identify degradation prior to failure of SSCs; • Provide a means of reporting results, taking actions for anomalous or undesirable conditions, and give the regulator assurance of continued safe operations. Applying RIM in a specific case will call for advances in the state of practice of relating physical observables to functional reliability of certain component types. Except where a given level of damage corresponds to a failed (or nearly failed) state, it is not practical to establish a precise quantitative relationship between physical observables and reliability. This paper focuses on managing risk of passive component failures based on observable damage parameters. A simple approach to cumulative damage modeling will be illustrated with a view to possible use in RIM applications.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Feedback from International Decommissioning Planning Projects - 20269

Decommissioning of Nuclear Power Plants is an increasing reality in many countries with nuclear power. Already many years before final shutdown, planning of the decommissioning work is usually started in order to understand for example the costs, waste volume capacity and licensing work needed. In many countries it is required to have a final decommissioning plan before any decommissioning work is allowed to start. Westinghouse has been involved in international decommissioning planning for more than 30 years, where the first 20 years was mostly funding and preliminary plans due to that decommissioning was many years away. However, as many more plants are now moving into decommissioning, the focus has shifted to final decommissioning plans with budgets instead of funding plans, strategic decisions instead of choices, waste volume specifications instead of estimates and a defined approach instead of what ifs. Westinghouse has developed a methodology based on the planning and execution of many decommissioning projects in Europe, America and Asia. That international experience and understanding helps the customers to adopt a systematic planning process where strategy development is done with the end state in mind, where the goals are clearly outlined and the starting point described. The process and steps to reach the desired end state need to be clearly defined and all options/alternatives evaluated from a cost/benefit point of view. This is followed by a thorough and quantitative risk analysis in order to give solid recommendations and credible conclusions. One important feedback has been that real decommissioning experience from reference projects is invaluable for an efficient and timely progress in order not to spend unnecessary time and effort on understanding the barriers and links between different activities in decommissioning. Skilled project managers or engineers can drive the project forward, but without decommissioning experience previously gained, valuable lessons learned are not used and the same mistakes can be made again. Many utilities have invested in knowledge transfer from other decommissioning projects through site visits, exchange programs and supplier meetings, which is a valuable asset and way of implementing lessons learned from performed decommissioning projects into the planning process. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improving Computational Efficiency of Prognostics Algorithms in Resource-Constrained Settings

In engineering and aerospace applications, it is vital to operational success to have insight into the expected performance and health of physical systems. The field of prognostics and health management provides quantitative methods for monitoring, predicting, and managing system health. Prognostics algorithms can be employed to assess the current state of a system, propagate the system throughout time, and predict potential anomalies or failures that may occur. While they can provide accurate prediction results, effective prognostics algorithms can be challenging to use in resource-constrained settings due to computational limitations and high computational latency, leading to obsolete predictions. Thus, computationally efficient and accurate algorithms are necessary for future remaining useful life predictions. In this work, we implement new algorithmic approaches for prediction, quantitatively compare them via a battery degradation use-case, and provide recommendations of potential improvements to a prognostics framework. One approach to prediction is through sampling, whereby the current state of a physical system is sampled many times and each sample is propagated forward until failure is reached, resulting in a distribution of failure values. To improve the efficiency of this process, we implemented five new algorithmic approaches to prediction, including three distinct sampling methods (standard Monte Carlo, Quasi-Monte Carlo, and Latin Hypercube Sampling), a variable time step algorithm, and a variable sample size algorithm. To compare the algorithms, we employ a variety of metrics designed specifically to analyze both computational efficiency and model accuracy. Our metrics include accuracy to compare the average predicted value to ground truth, mean absolute deviation to illustrate dispersion, specific percentile error to describe accuracy within a user-defined risk tolerance, and code run-time. To quantitatively analyze our results, we employ a use-case of degradation of a Lithium-ion battery. We use an electrochemistry-based model to describe the current health state of the battery, and implement our prediction algorithms to propagate forward in time until end-of-discharge (EOD) is reached. Notably, through this work it was found that none of our sampling approaches had a significant impact on computational efficiency or model accuracy in predicting EOD of the battery. We find that while the sampling methods are unique, the distributions they generate are similar, ultimately producing final predictions that are nearly identical. In exploring the effect of the time step within the prediction algorithm, we found that prediction accuracy was highly dependent on the time step used, and that implementing a variable time step within a particular prediction may provide an increase in computational efficiency while also maintaining prediction accuracy. Finally, implementing a variable sample size also affected prediction, and our results show that tuning both the magnitude and timing of the sample size adjustment can result in improved computation speed and maintained prediction accuracy. Taken together, our findings highlight the challenge of performing prognostics in resource-constrained settings, and illustrate the potential of developing new prediction algorithms to improve computational efficiency.

prognostics↗
DOE OSTI2025

LandScan mosaic enables high-resolution gridded population estimates with explicit uncertainty

Gridded population datasets represent high-resolution distributions of human occupancy, enabling informed decision-making across a broad range of fields. These data products are valuable for assessing environmental risk, urban development, disaster preparedness and resource allocation—areas where accurate population estimates directly enhance policy effectiveness and optimize resource distribution. Despite the importance of gridded population datasets, traditional population modeling approaches often overlook inherent uncertainties in the estimation process. This limitation can create a false sense of certainty in population estimates, potentially leading to flawed decisions by those who rely on the data. To address this methodological gap, we introduce a probabilistic machine learning modeling framework, LandScan Mosaic, that explicitly incorporates uncertainty into the population modeling process. Our approach systematically quantifies uncertainty in three key modeling parameters of the LandScan HD gridded population dataset: building use types, floor counts, and occupancy rates. By employing Monte Carlo simulations, we propagate these uncertainties through the modeling process, yielding probability distributions of population counts in place of deterministic point estimates. We demonstrate the practical application of this framework in Iloilo City, Philippines, using structured decision-making techniques and our probabilistic estimates to identify and prioritize areas most affected by projected flooding, supporting targeted interventions that address both economic and social risks. In doing so, we propose a population-specific approach for incorporating confidence into structured decision making processes. Through a comparative analysis with conventional deterministic approaches and point estimate approaches, including LandScan HD and WorldPop, we evaluate how the incorporation of machine learning and uncertainty influences decision rankings. This research advances population distribution modeling by offering a robust, quantitative approach that explicitly accounts for uncertainty in the underlying data, along with guidance for how users can apply uncertainty in their decision-making.

Environmental sciences↗
NASA NTRS2003

A Tabletop Tool for Modeling Life Support Systems

This paper describes the development plan for a comprehensive research and diagnostic tool for aspects of advanced life support systems in space-based laboratories. Specifically it aims to build a high fidelity tabletop model that can be used for the purpose of risk mitigation, failure mode analysis, contamination tracking, and testing reliability. We envision a comprehensive approach involving experimental work coupled with numerical simulation to develop this diagnostic tool. It envisions a 10% scale transparent model of a space platform such as the International Space Station that operates with water or a specific matched index of refraction liquid as the working fluid. This allows the scaling of a 10 ft x 10 ft x 10 ft room with air flow to 1 ft x 1 ft x 1 ft tabletop model with water/liquid flow. Dynamic similitude for this length scale dictates model velocities to be 67% of full-scale and thereby the time scale of the model to represent 15% of the full- scale system; meaning identical processes in the model are completed in 15% of the full- scale time. The use of an index matching fluid (fluid that matches the refractive index of cast acrylic, the model material) allows making the entire model (with complex internal geometry) transparent and hence conducive to non-intrusive optical diagnostics. So using such a system one can test environment control parameters such as core flows (axial flows), cross flows (from registers and diffusers), potential problem areas such as flow short circuits, inadequate oxygen content, build up of other gases beyond desirable levels, test mixing processes within the system at local nodes or compartments and assess the overall system performance. The system allows quantitative measurements of contaminants introduced in the system and allows testing and optimizing the tracking process and removal of contaminants. The envisaged system will be modular and hence flexible for quick configuration change and subsequent testing. The data and inferences from the tests will allow for improvements in the development and design of next generation life support systems and configurations.

Ramachandran, N.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Exploration Clinical Decision Support System: Medical Data Architecture

The Exploration Clinical Decision Support (ECDS) System project is intended to enhance the Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element for extended duration, deep-space mission planning in HRP. A major development guideline is the Risk of "Adverse Health Outcomes & Decrements in Performance due to Limitations of In-flight Medical Conditions". ECDS attempts to mitigate that Risk by providing crew-specific health information, actionable insight, crew guidance and advice based on computational algorithmic analysis. The availability of inflight health diagnostic computational methods has been identified as an essential capability for human exploration missions. Inflight electronic health data sources are often heterogeneous, and thus may be isolated or not examined as an aggregate whole. The ECDS System objective provides both a data architecture that collects and manages disparate health data, and an active knowledge system that analyzes health evidence to deliver case-specific advice. A single, cohesive space-ready decision support capability that considers all exploration clinical measurements is not commercially available at present. Hence, this Task is a newly coordinated development effort by which ECDS and its supporting data infrastructure will demonstrate the feasibility of intelligent data mining and predictive modeling as a biomedical diagnostic support mechanism on manned exploration missions. The initial step towards ground and flight demonstrations has been the research and development of both image and clinical text-based computer-aided patient diagnosis. Human anatomical images displaying abnormal/pathological features have been annotated using controlled terminology templates, marked-up, and then stored in compliance with the AIM standard. These images have been filtered and disease characterized based on machine learning of semantic and quantitative feature vectors. The next phase will evaluate disease treatment response via quantitative linear dimension biomarkers that enable image content-based retrieval and criteria assessment. In addition, a data mining engine (DME) is applied to cross-sectional adult surveys for predicting occurrence of renal calculi, ranked by statistical significance of demographics and specific food ingestion. In addition to this precursor space flight algorithm training, the DME will utilize a feature-engineering capability for unstructured clinical text classification health discovery. The ECDS backbone is a proposed multi-tier modular architecture providing data messaging protocols, storage, management and real-time patient data access. Technology demonstrations and success metrics will be finalized in FY16.

Biomedical support↗
NASA NTRS2005

Space Laboratory on a Table Top: A Next Generative ECLSS design and diagnostic tool

This paper describes the development plan for a comprehensive research and diagnostic tool for aspects of advanced life support systems in space-based laboratories. Specifically it aims to build a high fidelity tabletop model that can be used for the purpose of risk mitigation, failure mode analysis, contamination tracking, and testing reliability. We envision a comprehensive approach involving experimental work coupled with numerical simulation to develop this diagnostic tool. It envisions a 10% scale transparent model of a space platform such as the International Space Station that operates with water or a specific matched index of refraction liquid as the working fluid. This allows the scaling of a 10 ft x 10 ft x 10 ft room with air flow to 1 ft x 1 ft x 1 ft tabletop model with water/liquid flow. Dynamic similitude for this length scale dictates model velocities to be 67% of full-scale and thereby the time scale of the model to represent 15% of the full- scale system; meaning identical processes in the model are completed in 15% of the full- scale-time. The use of an index matching fluid (fluid that matches the refractive index of cast acrylic, the model material) allows making the entire model (with complex internal geometry) transparent and hence conducive to non-intrusive optical diagnostics. So using such a system one can test environment control parameters such as core flows (axial flows), cross flows (from registers and diffusers), potential problem areas such as flow short circuits, inadequate oxygen content, build up of other gases beyond desirable levels, test mixing processes within the system at local nodes or compartments and assess the overall system performance. The system allows quantitative measurements of contaminants introduced in the system and allows testing and optimizing the tracking process and removal of contaminants. The envisaged system will be modular and hence flexible for quick configuration change and subsequent testing. The data and inferences from the tests will allow for improvements in the development and design of next generation life support systems and configurations. Preliminary experimental and modeling work in this area will be presented. This involves testing of a single inlet-exit model with detailed 3-D flow visualization and quantitative diagnostics and computational modeling of the system.

Ramachandran, N.↗
DOE OSTI2023

One Health Assessment of Bacillus anthracis Incidence and Detection in Anthrax-Endemic Areas of Pakistan

Anthrax, a severe zoonotic disease, is infrequently reported in anthrax-endemic regions of Pakistan. Despite clinical reports indicating its presence, particularly cutaneous anthrax, there is insufficient laboratory evidence regarding disease occurrence and environmental persistence. The present study aimed to confirm Bacillus anthracis presence, accountable for animal mortality and human infection, while exploring environmental transmission factors. Between March 2019 and July 2021, a total of 19 outbreaks were documented. Of these, 11 affected sheep/goats in Zhob district and 8 affected cattle/sheep in Bajour Agency. Clinical signs suggestive of Bacillus anthracis outbreak were observed in 11 animals. Blood and swab samples were collected for confirmation. The study followed a One Health approach, analyzing animal, environmental (soil/plant), and human samples. Of the 19 outbreaks, 11 were confirmed positive for anthrax based on growth characteristics, colony morphology, and PCR. Soil and plant root samples from the outbreak areas were collected and analyzed microscopically and molecularly. Cutaneous anthrax was observed in six humans, and swab samples were taken from the lesions. Human serum samples (n = 156) were tested for IgG antibodies against PA toxin and quantitative analysis of anthrax toxin receptor 1 (ANTXR1). Bacillus anthracis was detected in 65 out of 570 (11.40%) soil samples and 19 out of 190 (10%) plant root samples from the outbreak areas. Four out of six human samples from cutaneous anthrax lesions tested positive for Bacillus anthracis. Human anthrax seroprevalence was found to be 11% and 9% in two districts, with the highest rates among butchers and meat consumers. The highest ANTXR1 levels were observed in butchers, followed by meat consumers, farm employees, meat vendors, veterinarians, and farm owners. These findings highlight the persistence of anthrax in the region and emphasize the potential public health risks.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2009

Space Systems - Safety and Compatibility of Materials - Method to Determine the Flammability Thresholds of Materials

Spacecraft fire safety emphasizes fire prevention, which is achieved primarily through the use of fire-resistant materials. Materials selection for spacecraft is based on conventional flammability acceptance tests, along with prescribed quantity limitations and configuration control for items that are non-pass or questionable. ISO 14624-1 and -2 are the major methods used to evaluate flammability of polymeric materials intended for use in the habitable environments of spacecraft. The methods are upward flame-propagation tests initiated in static environments and using a well-defined igniter flame at the bottom of the sample. The tests are conducted in the most severe flaming combustion environment expected in the spacecraft. The pass/fail test logic of ISO 14624-1 and -2 does not allow a quantitative comparison with reduced gravity or microgravity test results; therefore their use is limited, and possibilities for in-depth theoretical analyses and realistic estimates of spacecraft fire extinguishment requirements are practically eliminated. To better understand the applicability of laboratory test data to actual spacecraft environments, a modified ISO 14624 protocol has been proposed that, as an alternative to qualifying materials as pass/fail in the worst-expected environments, measures the actual upward flammability limit for the material. A working group established by NASA to provide recommendations for exploration spacecraft internal atmospheres realized the importance of correlating laboratory data with real-life environments and recommended NASA to develop a flammability threshold test method. The working group indicated that for the Constellation Program, the flammability threshold information will allow NASA to identify materials with increased flammability risk from oxygen concentration and total pressure changes, minimize potential impacts, and allow for development of sound requirements for new spacecraft and extravehicular landers and habitats. Furthermore, recent research has shown that current normal gravity materials flammability tests do not correlate with flammability in ventilated, micro- or reduced-gravity conditions. Currently, the materials selection for spacecraft is based on the assumption of commonality between ground flammability test results and spacecraft environments, which does not appear to be valid. Materials flammability threshold data acquired in normal gravity can be correlated with data obtained in microgravity or reduced-gravity experiments, and consequently a more accurate assessment of the margin of safety of the material in the real environment can be made. In addition, the method allows the option of selecting better or best space system materials, as opposed to what would be considered just acceptable from a flammability point of view and realistic assessment of spacecraft fire extinguishment needs, which could result in significant weight savings. The knowledge afforded by this technique allows for limited extrapolations of flammability behavior to conditions not specifically tested and that could potentially result in significant cost and time savings. The intent of this Technical Specification is to bring to the attention of International Aerospace Community the importance of correlating laboratory test data with real-life space systems applications. The method presented is just one of the possibilities that are believed will lead to better understanding the applicability of laboratory aerospace materials flammability test data. International feedback on improving the proposed method, as well as suggestions for correlating other laboratory aerospace test data with real-life applications relevant to space systems are being sought.

Hirsch, David↗
NASA NTRS2012

Surface, Water, and Air Biocharacterization (SWAB) Flight Experiment

The determination of risk from infectious disease during spaceflight missions is composed of several factors including both the concentration and characteristics of the microorganisms to which the crew are exposed. Thus, having a good understanding of the microbial ecology aboard spacecraft provides the necessary information to mitigate health risks to the crew. While preventive measures are taken to minimize the presence of pathogens on spacecraft, medically significant organisms have been isolated from both the Mir and International Space Station (ISS). Historically, the method for isolation and identification of microorganisms from spacecraft environmental samples depended upon their growth on culture media. Unfortunately, only a fraction of the organisms may grow on a specific culture medium, potentially omitting those microorganisms whose nutritional and physical requirements for growth are not met. To address this bias in our understanding of the ISS environment, the Surface, Water, and Air Biocharacterization (SWAB) Flight Experiment was designed to investigate and develop monitoring technology to provide better microbial characterization. For the SWAB flight experiment, we hypothesized that environmental analysis using non-culture-based technologies would reveal microorganisms, allergens, and microbial toxins not previously reported in spacecraft, allowing for a more complete health assessment. Key findings during this experiment included: a) Generally, advanced molecular techniques were able to reveal a few organisms not recovered using culture-based methods; however, there is no indication that current monitoring is "missing" any medically significant bacteria or fungi. b) Molecular techniques have tremendous potential for microbial monitoring, however, sample preparation and data analysis present challenges for spaceflight hardware. c) Analytical results indicate that some molecular techniques, such as denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE), can be much less sensitive than culture-based methods. d) More sensitive molecular techniques, such as quantitative polymerase chain reaction (QPCR), were able to identify viral DNA from ISS environments, suggesting potential transfer of the organism between crewmembers. In addition, the hardware selected for this experiment represented advances for next-generation sample collection. The advanced nature of this collection hardware was noted, when the Sartorius MD8 Air Port air sampler from the SWAB experiment remained on board ISS at the request of JAXA investigators, who intend to use it in completion of their microbial ecology experiment.

Castro, V. A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessing the Influence of Decompression Sickness on Medical Risk for Artemis

As NASA begins to shift its focus from LEO missions to the Moon and beyond, our understanding of the risk associated with human spaceflight is challenged by mission profiles and objectives far different from preceding missions. For Artemis, one of these aspects is surface Extra Vehicular Activity (EVA) tempo, in which the crew will perform 3 to 4 surface EVA’s in quick succession. The crew health and performance risk associated with EVA Decompression Sickness (DCS) and its associated countermeasures, is an important consideration for Artemis missions given this new and unprecedented EVA frequency. Successfully completing Artemis mission objectives relies heavily on the crew being able to perform and complete these EVAs. This analysis quantifies how medical risk changes when accounting for the expected increase in DCS risk due to the increase in EVA frequency. If there is an occurrence of DCS during a mission, appropriate downtime needs to be accounted for. Treatment for DCS requires crewmember to stop the current EVA and return to the habitat. This impacts the current EVA the crew is performing, could potentially delay the next EVA, and increases the chance of the crewmember being unable to perform future EVAs. Capturing the downtime and impact of that downtime based on the number of DCS occurrences allows us to better understand how the risk associated with DCS affects the overall medical risk and completion of missions that have more frequent EVA tempo. There are preventative strategies and mitigation countermeasures to decrease the chance of DCS occurring such as different prebreathe protocols, variable suit pressure, and vehicle pressure settings. Modeling the medical risk with and without different DCS countermeasures enables quantitative comparisons of risk reduction associated with each DCS countermeasure. We present results on how these countermeasures affect medical risks and quantify changes in the medical kit contents with respect to the countermeasures implemented within Artemis-class missions.

Clara Gasiewski↗
NASA NTRS2010

Response of Staphylococcus Aureus to a Spaceflight Analogue

The decreased gravity of the spaceflight environment creates quiescent, low fluid shear conditions. This environment can impart considerable effects on the physiology of microorganisms as well as their interactions with potential hosts. Using the rotating wall vessel (RWV), as a spaceflight analogue, the consequence of low fluid shear culture on microbial pathogenesis has provided a better understanding of the risks to the astronaut crew from infectious microorganisms. While the outcome of low fluid shear culture has been investigated for several bacterial pathogens, little has been done to understand how this environmental factor affects Staphylococcus aureus. S. aureus is an opportunistic human pathogen which presents a high level of infection risk to the crew, as it has been isolated from both the space shuttle and International Space Station. Given that approximately forty percent of the population are carriers of the bacteria, eradication of this organism from in flight environments is impractical. These reasons have lead to us to assess the response of S. aureus to a reduced fluid shear environment. Culture in the RWV demonstrated that S. aureus grown under the low-shear condition had lower cell concentrations after 10 hours when compared to the control culture. Furthermore, the low-shear cultured bacteria displayed a reduction in carotenoid production, pigments responsible for their yellow/gold coloration. When exposed to various environmental stressors, post low-shear culture, a decrease in the ability to survive oxidative assault was observed compared to control cultures. The low fluid shear environment also resulted in a decrease in hemolysin secretion, a staphylococcal toxin responsible for red blood cell lysis. When challenged by the immune components present in human whole blood, low-shear cultured S. aureus demonstrated significantly reduced survival rates as compared to the control culture. Assays to determine the duration of these alterations demonstrated that the low-shear response could be lost in as few as 2.5 hours. These changes in phenotypic properties prompted investigation into variations occurring at the genetic level. Microarray analysis of low-shear cultured S. aureus revealed the differential regulation of genes involved in metabolism, stress response, and phosphate transfer. Additional genetic analysis with quantitative real-time PCR revealed alterations in the expression of Hfq, the conserved RNA chaperone protein involved in global gene regulation. Hfq has been connected to the regulation of a spaceflight microgravity response in S. typhimurium. These findings in S. aureus suggest an evolutionary conserved response to spaceflight conditions among structurally-diverse microorganisms. Furthermore, the reduction in pigmentation, hemolysin secretion, and survival against oxidative stress and immunologically active whole blood demonstrate an overall decrease in the virulence factors of S. aureus in response to spaceflight-like conditions.

Castro, S. L.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impacts of PV Module Connector Failures on Cost and Performance of Utility Scale Photovoltaic Systems

The reliability, cost and performance of electrical connectors are a concern in all types of electrical systems, and demands on connectors used on photovoltaic (PV) systems include that connectors maintain electrical conductivity and physical strength, endure ultraviolet sunlight and high ambient temperature, and resist moisture and chemical intrusion over a very long (>25 year) performance period. Connector failures increase operation and maintenance (O&M) costs and reduce plant production, but connector failure can also cause safety and liability problems, which are of greater concern. This work results from a three-year collaboration between Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Solar Energy Technology Office (SETO) under Agreements #39035 and #38531 "Connector Reliability Across the US Solar Sector." a multi-pronged investigation of PV connector health across the US (see https://energy.sandia.gov/pvconnectors/). This report presents derivation of a Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA) that models failure modes and frequencies (how often failure occurs), estimates O&M costs and lost production associated with connector failures, and then calculates the effect that PV module connectors can have on Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE). The model is informed with initial data from quantitative assessment of failure rates, root causes and mechanisms, in-situ diagnostics and data collection, lab-based forensics, and interviews with PV connector manufacturers and plant operators. SNL conducted site inspections at multiple utility-scale sites in different climates and subjected field samples of new, used, and degraded connectors to visual and electrical characterization. EPRI conducted metallurgical analysis of the pin and sleeve conductors to study failure-induced morphological and compositional changes. There is in general a shortage of statistically valid data, but data from PVROM database maintained by SNL was sufficient to ascertain failure rates and lost production as well as provide qualitative insight in its curated maintenance records. This report details the structure of the mathematical model but the sources of data to inform the model will continue to evolve. Analysis of a 100 MW PV plant is provided as an example of the use of the model, with results indicating that connectors are responsible for Annualized O&M Costs of $\$$71,933/year; Annualized Unit O&M Costs of $\$$0.72/kW/year; that a Reserve Account of $\$$187,220 should be available to fund repairs related to connectors; that connectors add $\$$1,494,004 to the Net Present Value of the O&M Costs (project life); and that O&M related to connectors adds about $\$$0.00088/kWh to the Levelized Cost of Energy. The impact of this model is to provide a tool to make the US solar sector more robust by quantifying and monetizing the reliability risks to utility-scale PV systems posed by poorly installed, mismatched and/or poorly designed and manufactured connectors. The TEA provides a model incorporating failure statistics, O&M cost data, and lost production into a single figure of merit, informing decisions and enabling practitioners to optimize cost and performance trade-offs. Stakeholders include connector manufacturers, system designers and equipment specifiers, standards bodies, installers and O&M providers, investors and insurance underwriters. This report supports continued growth of PV predicated on assurances that properly installed and maintained PV system connectors are safe and reliable. The project team is proposing future work including accelerated testing of connectors and expanding the approach taken here to other PV system components, such as TEA for rapid shut-down devices.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2015

An Approach for Performance Based Glove Mobility Requirements

The Space Suit Assembly (SSA) Development Team at NASA Johnson Space Center has invested heavily in the advancement of rear‐entry planetary exploration suit design but largely deferred development of extravehicular activity (EVA) glove designs, and accepted the risk of using the current flight gloves, Phase VI, for exploration missions. However, as design reference missions mature, the risks of using heritage hardware have highlighted the need for developing robust new glove technologies. To address the technology gap, the NASA Space Technology Mission Directorate's Game‐Changing Development Program provided start‐up funding for the High Performance EVA Glove (HPEG) Element as part of the Next Generation Life Support (NGLS) Project in the fall of 2013. The overarching goal of the HPEG Element is to develop a robust glove design that increases human performance during EVA and creates pathway for implementation of emergent technologies, with specific aims of increasing pressurized mobility to 60% of barehanded capability, increasing the durability in on‐pristine environments, and decreasing the potential of gloves to cause injury during use. The HPEG Element focused initial efforts on developing quantifiable and repeatable methodologies for assessing glove performance with respect to mobility, injury potential, thermal conductivity, and abrasion resistance. The team used these methodologies to establish requirements against which emerging technologies and glove designs can be assessed at both the component and assembly levels. The mobility performance testing methodology was an early focus for the HPEG team as it stems from collaborations between the SSA Development team and the JSC Anthropometry and Biomechanics Facility (ABF) that began investigating new methods for suited mobility and fit early in the Constellation Program. The combined HPEG and ABF team used lessons learned from the previous efforts as well as additional reviews of methodologies in physical and occupational therapy arenas to develop a protocol that assesses gloved range of motion, strength, dexterity, tactility, and fit in comparative quantitative terms and also provides qualitative insight to direct hardware design iterations. The protocol was evaluated using five experienced test subjects wearing the EMU pressurized to 4.3psid with three different glove configurations. The results of the testing are presented to illustrate where the protocol is and is not valid for benchmark comparisons. The process for requirements development based upon the results is also presented along with suggested performance values for the High Performance EVA Gloves to be procured in fiscal year 2015.

Aitchison, Lindsay↗
NASA NTRS2016

An Approach for Performance Based Glove Mobility Requirements

The Space Suit Assembly (SSA) Development Team at NASA Johnson Space Center has invested heavily in the advancement of rear-entry planetary exploration suit design but largely deferred development of extravehicular activity (EVA) glove designs, and accepted the risk of using the current flight gloves, Phase VI, for exploration missions. However, as design reference missions mature, the risks of using heritage hardware have highlighted the need for developing robust new glove technologies. To address the technology gap, the NASA Space Technology Mission Directorate's Game-Changing Development Program provided start-up funding for the High Performance EVA Glove (HPEG) Element as part of the Next Generation Life Support (NGLS) Project in the fall of 2013. The overarching goal of the HPEG Element is to develop a robust glove design that increases human performance during EVA and creates pathway for implementation of emergent technologies, with specific aims of increasing pressurized mobility to 60% of barehanded capability, increasing the durability in on-pristine environments, and decreasing the potential of gloves to cause injury during use. The HPEG Element focused initial efforts on developing quantifiable and repeatable methodologies for assessing glove performance with respect to mobility, injury potential, thermal conductivity, and abrasion resistance. The team used these methodologies to establish requirements against which emerging technologies and glove designs can be assessed at both the component and assembly levels. The mobility performance testing methodology was an early focus for the HPEG team as it stems from collaborations between the SSA Development team and the JSC Anthropometry and Biomechanics Facility (ABF) that began investigating new methods for suited mobility and fit early in the Constellation Program. The combined HPEG and ABF team used lessons learned from the previous efforts as well as additional reviews of methodologies in physical and occupational therapy arenas to develop a protocol that assesses gloved range of motion, strength, dexterity, tactility, and fit in comparative quantitative terms and also provides qualitative insight to direct hardware design iterations. The protocol was evaluated using five experienced test subjects wearing the EMU pressurized to 4.3psid with three different glove configurations. The results of the testing are presented to illustrate where the protocol is and is not valid for benchmark comparisons. The process for requirements development based upon the results is also presented along with suggested performance values for the High Performance EVA Gloves currently in development.

Aitchison, Lindsay↗