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DOE OSTI2021

Energize: An Interactive Evaluation Tool for Engaging the General Public with Energy Decision Making - Final Report

The public has an ever-increasing interest in the economic, environmental, and social impacts of global energy production. To support informed decision making, the scientific community has a responsibility to communicate reliable and straight-forward information to the general public, in an engaging way, regarding energy systems and how choices made at different stages of an energy technology life cycle can impact the cost, amount of materials used, and waste produced. Our objective is to enhance public engagement via an interactive electrical energy game (Energ!ze) through which players interact with one another in their quest to develop an electrical energy portfolio that optimizes economic (e.g., company profit), environmental (e.g., reduced CO 2 emissions), and social (e.g., public opinion) impacts. The design and development of Energ!ze was an iterative process involving an interdisciplinary team of engineers, discipline-based scientists, computer scientists, and education experts. The development objectives were two-fold: (1) Accurate and quantifiable modeling of electrical energy systems and (2) Engaging and interactive user interface within the construct of the game narrative. The major game mechanics in the current playable Energ!ze version focus on economic metrics, and the database is scaffolded to add environmental and social metrics for future versions. This report details the outcome of the funding period (Section 2 and 3) and describes the development process, along with recommendations for future development (Section 4).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Converter-Interfaced CHP Plant for Improved Grid-Integration, Flexibility and Resiliency

GE Research and its partner GE Renewables have proposed the use of an interface converter solution to increase the penetration of small to medium-sized CHP (1MWe to 20MWe) into distribution grids and improve their flexibility and grid support capability. Indeed, the proposed interface converter solution thanks to presence of the grid-ready inverter, allows to streamline the compliance to grid codes requirements, reduce the interconnection delays and costs and ultimately one of the main barriers for CHP adoption by commercial and industrial facilities. An additional benefit provided by the interface converter is the use of the grid-ready inverter for reactive power which eliminates the need of sizing the generator for that capability. These two benefits highly favor the economic feasibility of converter-interfaced CHP. Five user cases, each in one of the leading U.S states for CHP potential reported by the DOE in its estimation of the U.S Technical Potential of CHP, were selected to compare the economic performances of converter-interfaced CHP as compared with directly-coupled. They include a college campus in California, a hospital in New York, a water reclamation plant in Texas, a hotel in Minnesota, and a large office building in Pennsylvania. Results showed that, the presence of the interface converter allows to increase the return on investment (ROI) by 0.5 to 2 percentage points in most of the cases (4 of 5). Indeed, the interface converter by shortening the interconnection process allows to accelerate revenues while reducing interconnection costs. Added to the reduced cost of the required generator these savings trade favorably the capital cost of the converter. The analysis also showed that the profitability of the converter-interfaced CHP is highly sensitive to the energy price, interconnection delay, and converter cost. However, it appears that if the interface converter can shorten the interconnection process by at least 6 months, adopting this solution will be more economically viable than directly-coupled configuration in almost all the +23,000 sites of the U.S Technical Potential CHP. The evaluation of the benefits of a converter-interfaced CHP also showed that it enables higher ROI when coupled with other distributed energy resources (DER) such as battery energy systems (BESS) or solar photovoltaic (PV). Indeed, in those scenario, the grid-ready inverter included in the interface converter eliminates the need of separate inverters if DC-coupling is used. On the technical performance, it has been verified that the presence of the interface converter allows to reduce by 70% to 80% the CHP short-circuit contribution to grid faults. This not only reduces the mechanical and thermal stresses exposed to the CHP electrical components but also increases the grid hosting capacity which ultimately enables higher penetrations CHP. Another key benefit of the interface converter validated with hardware-in-the-loop simulations and testing is its superior capability for reactive power support. Indeed, using a power hardware testbed with two +700kW inverters configured in back-to-back, a microgrid controller and actual facilities loads it was demonstrated that the presence of the interface converter can help maintain a power factor near ~1 or regulate the voltage to ~1.0pu at the point of common coupling. This benefit can be highly valuable if in the future, due to higher penetration of renewable distributed energy resources (DER), utilities start billing demand charge based on kVA instead of kW as currently. It was also validated that converter-interfaced CHP can dispatch heat and power commands and seamlessly switch between the two modes while consistently controlling the power factor or voltage at PCC. Indeed, the power hardware testing showed that grid-connected converter-interfaced CHP can follow either the power or heat demand while maintaining a unity power factor at converter output. This research proved that the adoption of an interface converter as the solution for interconnection of CHP system into the distribution grid can greatly improve the economic feasibility of small to medium-sized CHP as well as the plant power quality, flexibility and resiliency. Additionally, it allows increased penetrations of CHP into the distribution grid, extends their grid support capability, and facilitates the integration of BESS and PV DER by streamlining their collocation within the same facilities. This ultimately provides an opportunity for commercial and small industrial facilities in the U.S to accelerate their energy transition thanks to the high energy efficiency of CHP systems and its reliable, flexible, and resilient microgrid operation when interconnected with an interface converter.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Wind Plant Performance Prediction Benchmark Phase 1 (Technical Report)

Financial risk resulting from the uncertainty associated with developing, owning, and operating wind power plants remains a barrier to reducing the levelized cost of energy (LCOE). On average, modern wind power plants in the U.S. underperform their expected annual energy output by 3.5-4.5% , with many underperforming by over 10%. To compensate for this uncertainty, investors require a larger return on investment (ROI) and apply "knock-down" factors that mask much of the underlying sources of uncertainty. Wind energy projects thus have reduced access to low-cost capital. Furthermore, operating wind plants often take a simple approach to estimating operations & maintenance (O&M) costs (e.g. straight-line estimates based on similar plants), which can eat into profits. To overcome these issues, the wind industry must improve the models they use for estimating wind plant performance and operations. An industry consortium (IC) requested that the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) lead a Department of Energy (DOE) working group to benchmark the accuracy of wind power plant energy predictions against real operational data. The IC was also motivated by DOE and NREL's potential to characterize systematic energy underperformance, identify sources of uncertainty, and explore root causes. The Wind Plant Performance Prediction (WP3) project was created out of this request, and this report represents the successful completion of Phase 1 of the WP3 project. During the project, wind plant owners provided both pre-construction and operational data to NREL. The pre-construction data was provided to wind resource assessment (WRA) consultants so they could conduct energy yield assessments (EYA). NREL took all of the completed EYAs, along with the operational data, and conducted an operational assessment to benchmark the EYA results against actual operational data. Given the large amounts of sensitive data required for this effort, as well as historical opposition to sharing data within industry, successful completion of Phase 1 represents an unprecedented milestone for industry data sharing. To improve the accuracy and confidence of pre-construction EYAs, wind plant owners and investors need better, more certain, energy yield predictions. The WP3 Benchmark Project is an industry-driven response to this reality. For the first time, industry has taken the important step of working together at scale, sharing valuable operational data with DOE and NREL in order to investigate the sources of bias and uncertainty in these energy estimates. This IC provides wind plant preconstruction and operational data to NREL in an organized and documented fashion and provides guidance and feedback as needed. The IC also provides introspection of the design of experiment, key metrics of success, data challenges, analysis best practices, and quality of results.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

My Green LANL [Slides]

The My Green LANL initiative was created to unify LANL employees in all research and work environments to reflect the highest standard of social and environmental responsibility. In combination with the My Green Lab non-profit organization and internal LANL efforts, the My Green LANL mission is to educate and emphasize the importance of practicing sustainable or ‘green’ efforts in both laboratory and office spaces.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

High Explosive Testing Capabilities at Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) [Slides]

LANL is a non-profit Federally Funded Research & Development Center (FFRDC). LANL’s Integrated Weapons Experiments (J) Division addresses national security challenges by executing largescale, integrated, focused experiments, and tests of engineered devices and systems. J-NV plans, fields, and executes dynamic high explosive experiments at NNSS. This includes sub-critical experiments involving special nuclear material, as well as small- and largescale non-nuclear experiments. J-NV generates, analyzes, and disseminates unique, high-quality data.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Request for Information on Establishing a New Manufacturing Institute (DE-FOA-0002564)

Deep decarbonization of major industries such as metals manufacturing requires extensive process integration and controls to manage feedstocks, side reactions, heat, water, and waste streams. The scale of the energy and capital investment requires that process integration be validated to a high level of confidence with no bias. Industries such as steel production have very thin profit margins. Therefore, lack of confidence in process integration, product quality, and economics is a major deterrence to changes in manufacturing capital investment. Public sector investment in reconfigurable pilot testbeds and a first-of-a-kind plant would be necessary to de-risk technical and financial barriers prior to industry-wide buildout. DOE should consider a National Lab-led hub for the testbeds. Lab testbeds could be utilized in campaigns and allow multiple industrial partners to evaluate and validate technologies prior to making major capital investments.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2023

Techno-Economic Impact of a Smart Battery Sorting System

Create analytical framework to capture costs and benefits of the automated sorting into battery recycling including the development and deployment of various types of battery recycling technologies such as pyrometallurgical, hydrometallurgical, and direct recycling. Li Industries, Inc. is a Virginia startup company focused on reinventing how lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) are recycled. Li Industries is focused on developing direct LIB recycling and automated battery sorting technologies in order to reduce the environmental impact of the LIB lifecycle. This work is to be conducted in support of the American-Made Challenges Lithium-Ion Battery Recycling Prize. Li Industries and NREL will work together to understand how novel technologies, such as those being developed by Li Industries, can impact the development and economics of the battery recycling industry. This voucher is being used to evaluate the profitability of an automated sorting system developed by Li Industries and the potential effect this increased value could have on the domestic lithium-ion battery (LIB) recycling industries in the United States. NREL has developed the Lithium-Ion Battery Resources Assessment (LIBRA) system dynamics model to project the future viability of the US LIB manufacturing and recycling industries under varying technoeconomic conditions and battery adoption scenarios over the coming decades. Additional logic was added to LIBRA to analyze the role automated sorting of recycling feedstock could play in the buildout of the industry and the impacts it has on the recovery of end-of-life (EOL) battery materials. This report summarizes the outcomes of this modeling analysis in the US context through a series of sensitivity analyses run for a range of values of a given input dimension and compared across the unsorted or automated sorting cases for LIB recycling feedstock. For greater detail on the process and analysis, the researchers are publishing a forthcoming journal article titled Techno-Economic Impact of a Smart Battery Sorting System for Lithium-Ion Battery Recycling and Mineral Recovery in the United States by Weigl, et al. In the event the article is not accepted by any currently seeking publication in academic or industry journal, it may be published by NREL. CRADA benefit to DOE, Participant, and US Taxpayer: assists laboratory in achieving programmatic scope competencies, uses the laboratory's core competencies.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

American Made Challenges Battery Voucher Program Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (Cooperative Research and Development Final Report, CRADA Number CRD-21-17533)

Renewance is a Phase II winner of the U.S. Department of Energy Lithium-ion Battery Recycling Prize. The Prize is designed to incentivize American entrepreneurs to develop and demonstrate processes that, when scaled, have the potential to profitably capture 90% of all discarded or spent lithium-based batteries (LIB) in the Unites States for eventual recovery of key materials for re-introductions into the U.S. supply chain. The objective of this work is to enable a more efficient evaluation of battery sources for second life applications prior to ultimately being recycled, through evaluation of chemistry characteristics, projected battery lifetime, and application history. This work will develop the capability to identify groups of batteries that may be useful for second life and reduce the cost of end-of-life (EOL) LIB evaluation and repurposing. To meet the objective, NREL will use existing and new data to create a refined algorithm that could be used to evaluate batches of batteries for potential reuse based on manufacturing date and historical use characteristics. Based on current battery market prices and compiled literature data, a starting-point estimate of the market value of the batteries for reuse based on expected lifetime will be included in the algorithm. With the projected surge in LIB demand, battery second life is a new area ripe for development and investment from companies like Renewance. With so few large format batteries reaching EOL to date, this is a new market with a variety of areas for optimization and adding value. This work with Renewance is an example of how existing expertise in battery degradation at NREL can be used to reduce the cost of shifting a battery into a second life application. With these cost reductions, this work is also facilitating the development of a battery circular economy in the United States. A robust circular economy can maximize the utilization of critical metals demanded by battery technology such as nickel and cobalt while also reducing the costs of batteries in the marketplace for the many end-uses needed for the green energy transition. The supply of these metals is limited, and we face a supply chain shortage both domestically and globally unless we can ensure they are being used to their maximum potential. This research can improve the economics of a battery circular economy to make it a more likely path for EOL batteries with critical metals. CRADA benefit to DOE, Participant, and US Taxpayer: assists laboratory in achieving programmatic scope competencies, uses the laboratory's core competencies.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Front-End Engineering Design for Piperazine with the Advanced Stripper

This Department of Energy (DOE) funded project was executed with the goal of preparing a Front-End Engineering Design (FEED) for the capture and compression of 90% of the CO2 that would normally be emitted from an existing natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) plant. The FEED focused on the application of the piperazine advanced stripper (PZAS) process at Mustang Station of the Golden Spread Electric Cooperative (GSEC), which consists of two gas turbines with common heat recovery steam generator (HRSG). The University of Texas at Austin (UT) served as the prime contractor, and subcontracted AECOM Technical Services and Trimeric Corporation to support FEED development. This project team has worked together to advance PZAS for more than a decade. ExxonMobil, Chevron, and Total provided project co-funding. The objectives of this work included: 1. To advance engineering design such that a comprehensive estimate for the total installed cost of a full-scale PZAS CO2 Capture Plant with CO2 compression can be developed on an existing NGCC power plant. a. These detailed costs can also be used to qualify PZAS and other related second generation (2G) amine scrubbing processes for use on cogeneration facilities in refineries and chemical plants that use gas turbines with HRSGs to produce steam. b. These detailed costs will help qualify 2G amine scrubbing for use on NGCC power plants and establish a more accurate baseline cost to be used as a target by other capture technologies. 2. To provide cost details to be used in the economic optimization of the process features of PZAS and other 2G amine scrubbing processes. 3. To provide DOE with a more detailed understanding of carbon capture costs in a commercial application, enabling DOE to better design its R&D program to improve the economics for carbon capture. 4. To provide the host site and cost share partners with the information necessary to determine whether a commercial project to capture and use CO2 for enhanced oil recovery (EOR) or for sequestration can be justified (when accounting for the 45Q tax credit). A key component of the FEED is the estimated total installed cost, which provides a basis for the likely capital investment necessary to implement the PZAS carbon capture process at this location and scale. In combination with the included economic analysis, which accounts for potential revenue from the produced CO2, potential avenues to profitability are explored. The major findings of the FEED are as follows: The Mustang Station PZAS CO2 Capture Plant estimated total project cost of $698 MM of which $384 MM was direct costs. The annual operating costs were $32.6 MM. The total investment for a PZAS facility at Mustang Station is $725 MM. This estimate includes owner’s cost of $25 million and a contingency of $110 MM. • The study estimated the CO2 capture plant at Mustang Station would generate CO2 at $110/tonne for EOR, assuming a 12% IRR (internal rate of return) and an 85% capacity factor. For CO2 storage, the same case would achieve a 12% IRR at about $114/tonne. At a capacity factor of 52%, the storage and EOR cases would break even when carbon is priced ~$150/tonne. The economic analysis determined that the capacity factor and utility pricing, among other variable factors, had a significant effect on the economics and will need additional studied. • The energy penalty of the PZAS plant would be about 46 MW in connected power and 35 MW in operating load. The natural gas requirement (for the Gas Boiler package) would be about 354 MMBTU/hr. • The FEED revealed no major risks in process maturity. However, some areas were outlined for further engineering during detailed design, which included the Gas Boiler system, general arrangement and site layout, air coolers, schedule development, and optimization of the process for higher CO2 removal. • If PZAS were to be implemented at another host site, additional opportunities for cost reduction for would include cost reduction through use of cooling water and steam extraction.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Nontechnical Barriers to Geothermal Development

Geothermal energy presents a significant opportunity for the United States (US). The US has the largest known geothermal resource in the world, with over 31 GW of conventional geothermal (i.e., hydrothermal) potential. Despite this, the development of geothermal power plants has lagged other renewable resources. Though some of the gaps stem from technical barriers numerous non-technical barriers are preventing geothermal energy from reaching its full potential. The gaps include a need to reduce the cost impacts of seismic risk, environmental risk, exploration, drilling and permitting cost risk, and reduced summer capacity on plant profitability. This report identifies pathways to overcome these barriers. We find that geothermal energy could increase its market presence by acting as a complement to lower cost renewables, providing flexible or baseload power in low carbon scenarios. We also outline several contractual and operational strategies (including the use of hybrid systems) that plant operators can pursue to improve the value of their resource, such as multi part remuneration mechanisms that guarantee revenue (e.g., availability payments or a Contract for Differences approach) or resource risk hedging approaches (e.g., shaped market products and portfolio resource approaches).

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Preliminary Pilot-scale Study and Techno-economic Analysis of Chemical Heat Pump with Conventional Nuclear Reactors

The energy economy is continually evolving, particularly in terms of primary energy sources, their conversions to useful forms such as electricity and heat, and their utilization in different sectors, in response to socio-political factors. Because nuclear source is clean and non-carbon-emitting energy source, it is crucial to consider its role in the evolution of the energy economy. A pilot-scale study was conducted for Chemical Heat Pump (ChHP) system at three different scales (25-, 100-, and 1000-kW thermal outputs) using steady state thermal model. To establish the viability of selling heat rather than electricity alone, techno-economic analysis was undertaken for advanced Small Modular Reactor (SMR), and SMR paired with varied thermal output ChHP systems was referred to as the nuclear hybrid energy system (NHES) in this study. Using the U.S. Energy Information Administration statistics, pricing for electricity and natural gas were anticipated for U.S. regions (California, Northwest, Midwest, Southwest, New England, and PJM). Based on thermal output from ChHP, advanced SMR with 100 MWth and four alternative NHES scenarios were explored, namely 50-, 10-, 5-, and 1-MWth. Net present value, payback period, discounted cash flow return, and levelized cost of energy were evaluated for all scenarios. Based on the economic analysis, selling heat to high-temperature industrial processes is more profitable compared to selling electricity only. Higher carbon taxes showed significant improvement in economic parameters for NHESs. Providing heat to high-temperature industries could be beneficial, helping to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions by slashing the fossil fuel consumption.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improving the Economic Viability of Biological Utilization of Coal Power Plant CO 2 by Improved Algae Productivity and Integration with Wastewater Treatment

The overall goal of this project was to improve the cost-effectiveness of systems using algae to capture and beneficially utilize CO 2 from the flue gas of coal-fired power plants. Algal biomass cultivation is an attractive alternative for carbon capture and utilization because it can uptake more CO 2 per land area than any other photosynthetic crop. Also, the resulting biomass can be used to make valuable large-market commodity products, such as biofuels and animal feed. However, the use of algal carbon capture has been limited by several factors including: (1) high costs for growing algae (>$\$1,300$/ton), (2) large land requirements for algae cultivation, and (3) environmental concerns about the large amount of water and nutrient inputs needed for growing algae. This project has taken direct aim at resolving these key limitations and demonstrated several viable approaches to improve the economic and environmental feasibility of algal carbon capture. In particular, this project demonstrated a significant increase in average annual algal productivity from baseline values of 8 g/m 2 -day to above 20 g/m 2 -day. This supports a much lower projected cost of algae production (<$\$500$/ton) and reduces land requirements by more than 50%. Additionally, this project confirmed the ability to grow multiple algae species with wastewater nutrients, which facilitates the potential for substantial new revenue streams for algae cultivation based on tipping fees for nutrient laden wastewater. This study highlighted that there is more potential value in wastewater nutrient treatment credits than in the primary commodity products made from algae. The use of wastewater inputs also mitigates the concerns associated with the large amount of water needed for growing algae. The algal biomass grown for this project using wastewater and simulated flue gas inputs were characterized for potential use as an animal feed ingredient. The algae had a protein content in the range of 35-40%, which is between some common commodity animal feed products— distiller’s grains (~25-30% protein) and soybean meal (45-50% protein). In-vitro digestion tests using cattle rumen fluids, showed that this algae biomass was best suited for use as “bypass protein”, which is digested in the animal intestine. Based on the protein content and amino acid profile of the algae grown in this study, it was estimated to have market value in the range of $\$190$-$\$280$/ton. There is potential for higher value feed products if the algae content of omega-3 fatty acids or antioxidants is accounted for. This project also did small scale demonstration of forward osmosis algae dewatering and nanofiltration of hydrothermal liquefaction aqueous products, which were shown to improve the cost and energy balance for producing algal products. When all the improvements demonstrated in this study were included in techno-economic analysis, it showed there was a viable pathway to profitable algal CO 2 utilization with a payback period in the range of six to ten years.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2021

Thermodynamically Stable, Plasmonic Transition Metal Oxide Nanoparticle Solar Selective Absorbers towards 95% Optical-to-Thermal Conversion Efficiency at 750 °C

Generation 3 (Gen) concentrating solar power (CSP) systems requires a high operation temperature ≥750°C to increase the power-cycle efficiency towards ≥50%. However, such a high operation temperature poses a notable challenge to high temperature materials. On the receiver side, a critical challenge is the lack of solar selective absorbers that demonstrate both high optical-to-thermal energy conversion efficiency η therm approaching 95% and long-term thermal stability at >750°C in air. Existing solar absorbers either have limited η therm ≤89% or deteriorate significantly within 500 h at 750°C; some of these also require costly vacuum deposition for stringent thickness control. Therefore, it is highly desirable to simultaneously achieve η therm ~95% AND high thermal stability at 750°C for future generations of CSP receivers. This project has investigated and developed low-cost, highly scalable spray-coated transition metal oxide nanoparticle (NP) pigmented solar selective coatings on various types of Inconel alloy tube sections that are thermodynamically stable at 750-800°C in air, maintaining η therm >94.3%(93.2%) under a solar concentration ratio of C=1000 after 60 simulated day-night cycles at 750ºC (800ºC) (1 cycle=12 h at 750 or 800°C and 12h ramping down to 25°C). We have also coated up to 48 inches long receiver tubes for preliminary solar testing under Norwich Technology’s parabolic trough systems, demonstrating notably improved performance in solar heating compared to benchmark Pyromark 2500 coatings. Two key innovations have been developed in this project: (1) We achieved an unprecedented high thermal efficiency >94% by optimizing the d-band optical absorption spectra of transition metal ions, engineering their valences and stoichiometry; (2) We were able to maintain or even slightly increase the efficiency when operating at 750°C in air by engineering the interdiffusion of transition metal ions between the coating and the Inconel substrate to our advantage. Featuring high-temperature solar spectral selectivity and thermodynamic stability in air, as well as low-cost, highly scalable solution-chemical synthesis and spray coating techniques, this innovation in solar selective absorber technology alone accounts for nearly 40% of the targeted reduction in the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) from the receiver, thermal energy storage, and operation & maintenance combined by 2030, as proposed by the U.S. Department of Energy. For a 110 MWe CSP power plant, this LCOE reduction from the solar selective coating alone transfers to ~$\$ $1.9 M increase in annual profit based on a sales price of 10¢/kWh (or an annual sale of $50 M/year). The high solar absorptance (~98%) NP pigment materials developed in this project are equally applicable to volumetric receivers either as a coating or as bigger ceramic microspheres after sintering, potentially benefiting Gen3 falling particle CSP technologies. All these contributions facilitate the larger scale deployment of CSP systems with energy storage capability to address the intermittency issue of solar energy towards dispatchable solar electricity, bridging the temporal gap between peak solar electricity production and peak electricity consumption. The collaboration with Norwich Technologies and Brayton Energy in this project will also facilitate the future commercialization of this new solar selective coating technology developed in this SIPS project.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impact of Transport Electrification Demand and Charging Schedules on Electricity Markets and Nuclear Generators

As the U.S. pursues deep decarbonization targets, electric vehicles (EVs) are likely to become a major driver of demand growth and a major determinant of daily demand patterns. This study analyzes a possible future ERCOT-like electricity grid, and examines the impact of different types of EV charging schedules on grid and market outcomes. This analysis demonstrates the significant impact of EV charging patterns on capacity expansion simulations. Even without EVs, the overall daily demand profile in a market can have significant impacts on prices and grid stability in that system, especially if non-dispatchable renewable generators (e.g. wind and solar) make up a significant fraction of the generation mix. EV demand will not necessarily follow this preexisting demand profile, so its daily trends may significantly change what generation portfolio would optimally serve the system. Furthermore, the effects of EV demand can alter the profitability of different types of units, by altering the frequency of market events like extreme-demand hours or zero-price hours. These effects are explored in this study. The EV demand levels were derived from MARKAL simulations of the West-South-Central North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) region for the year 2050, using a carbon tax of $100/ton. The baseline MARKAL simulation forecasted that 23% of the region’s annual electricity demand in 2050 would be attributable to EVs, and broke out demand projections for EV and non-EV end-use in that year. To model lower EV penetration into the system, an additional case was explored which assumed that EVs only achieved 75% of the demand level projected by MARKAL.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Irrigation Modernization Task 4: Accelerating Energy Solutions (FY2022 Final Report)

This report offers insights on energy solutions for irrigation modernization that serve the needs of farmers as well as residents and industry in the local community. Solutions are found in the irrigation districts where local generation from renewable energy sources – solar, hydro, and wind – can be combined with energy storage and customer loads. These combined resources configured in microgrids can lower costs during peak loads and provide resiliency by maintaining electricity supply during outages. The goal of this project, as stated in the FY2022 AOP, is to promote realization of energy solutions that are tailored to physical location, community, infrastructure, and energy value streams. Further, it is to develop examples of how to increase value of, and overcome barriers to, energy solutions in the context of irrigation modernization. In pursuit of that goal, the project looked at options for: 1) Reducing the cost of energy consumed in irrigation systems, 2) Increasing the revenue from surplus power generation, and 3) Deploying new power generation configured as part of a local microgrid. Potential solutions to reducing energy costs and increasing surplus power revenue revolve around addressing regulatory and legal constraints tied to how power is purchased by and sold to the irrigator or irrigation district. Some headway was made in identifying barriers and ways to push utilities to be more accommodating to distributed energy sources; however, for the most part, real progress hinges on changes at the regulatory and legislative level. Deployment of local, renewable generation systems can be implemented provided the economics of the project and the location are favorable. In concert with Famers Conservation Alliance and Energy Trust of Oregon, a number of approaches were studied in the past year, including off-grid solar powered pumps, grid-tied community solar projects, and in-conduit canal hydropower systems. Ultimately three viable projects were identified: 1) North Unit Irrigation District/City of Redmond, Oregon Critical Facility Microgrid – offers combined in-conduit hydro and solar power generation. 2) Wallowa County/Joseph, Oregon Irrigation System Upgrades – centered on upgrades to a non-powered dam that will add a turbine as well as in-conduit power in canal feeders downstream. 3) Medford, Oregon Wastewater Treatment Plant Biogas Cogeneration System – centered on building out biogas storage and grid upgrades to power the plant, sell excess power, and provide emergency backup power (supplanting a diesel generator). Each of these projects has characteristics that broaden the understanding of the value of microgrids employing renewable energy to achieve resiliency and net-zero carbon goals. The first two projects are centered on new hydropower systems. Although the Medford project is only tangentially tied to an irrigation district, it was selected for study analysis as it was the only one mature enough (with sufficient data) to complete an analysis within this project year. Thus, we chose to move forward developing a case study, in concert with the Community Water-Power Resilience project, to demonstrate a method for evaluating such projects. Essentially, this case study serves as a template for studies to be carried out next year that more directly involve irrigation system hydropower, e.g., the project at the Wallowa County/Joseph, Oregon Irrigation System. Lastly, it is recognized that the locations and case studies in this report are all located in Oregon. We recognize this as a limitation. While the intent is not to ignore other states or regions, this result is driven by the fact that we have cultivated a collaboration with non-profit entities in Oregon that focus on these topics – Farmers Conservation Alliance and Energy Trust of Oregon. These partners were central to identifying projects that may be good fits for this program. A goal in the coming year is to establish collaboration with entities in other states/regions that, similarly, can connect us to potential projects in their geographic area. The potential benefits from the WPTO’s support for demonstration projects as energy solutions in irrigation districts include: (1) Alternative power supplies for communities and farms using renewable, carbon-free energy resources, (2) Cost savings for electricity for communities and farms, (3) Resiliency of power supplies for critical loads when electricity from the grid is not available, (4) Resiliency of power supplies for critical infrastructure in the event of catastrophic events, and (5) Demonstration of irrigation modernization projects that provide resilience and a reduced carbon footprint to irrigation districts and nearby communities. These deployments can serve as vanguards/archetypes spurring similar projects in other districts and states.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Methods for Computing Physically Realistic Estimates of Electric Water Heater Demand Response Resource Suitable for Bulk Power System Planning Models

Demand response is commonly called on to reduce load during system peak times or to respond to contingency events. In future power systems with higher shares of wind and solar generation (which we describe together as variable generation [VG]), demand response could have more opportunities to provide energy shifting or operating reserve services. This report evaluates the ability of residential electric water heaters, both electric resistance water heaters (ERWHs) and heat pump water heaters (HPWHs), to provide such services starting from detailed whole-building energy models that realistically represent New England single family home stock. We use a parsimonious surrogate model to represent operational flexibility in a form suitable for linear and mixed integer programming. This enables relatively fast determination of aggregate contingency reserve resource, price-taking energy shifting outcomes, and in some cases the determination of aggregate models at the megawatt (MW) scale that can be directly included in large-scale grid models. After selecting modeling methods and parameters through various computational experiments, we find interquartile ranges of contingency reserve resource in ISO-NE for about 603,400 ERWHs of 45 MW - 69 MW for Claim10 (50 minute responses provided with 10 minutes of advanced notification) and 65 MW - 102 MW for Claim30 (30 minute responses provided with 30 minutes of advanced notification), and for about 619,000 HPWHs of 48 MW - 88 MW for Claim10 and 52 MW - 90 MW for Claim30. The overall reserve resource is up to 32% of total load for ERWHs providing Claim10 service, 47% for ERWHs providing Claim30 service, 93% for HPWHs providing Claim10 service, and 97% for HPWHs providing Claim30 service. More work is required to determine if HPWHs are inherently more suitable than ERWHs for providing contingency reserve or if these results reflect idiosyncrasies of the single family home stock model used in this study. The value of this contingency resource in a Near-term VG model of ISO-NE is $\$ 0.40$ to $\$1.20$ per water heater-year, and significantly larger, $\$ 3.80$ to $\$ 5.30$ per water heater-year in a Mid-term VG model of ISONE. Aggregating surrogate models to the MW-scale for energy shifting service is more challenging than for contingency service and we only present such results for ERWHs, because we were unable to determine satisfactory ways to deal with HPWHs' time-varying and path dependent operational characteristics. Individual surrogate models suitable for evaluating the energy shifting resource from both ERWHs and HPWHs are created, however, and dispatched against day-ahead prices from the Near-Term VG and Mid-Term VG models of ISO-NE. The individual surrogate models are able to access and potentially shift all 640 GWh of HPWH load and 1,547 GWh of ERWH load we modeled in two different single family home stock models. In contrast, the most effective model of aggregate ERWH shifting resource we created only captured 34.7% of the total ERWH load. Energy shifting affected by price-taking dispatch against modeled day-ahead energy prices produces per water heater year profits of $\$19.44$ - $\$22.93$ for individual HPWHs, $\$39.11$ - $\$40.54$ for individual ERWHs, and up to $\$4.00$ - $\$4.24$ for aggregated ERWHs, with the variations mainly due to grid conditions (more or less VG). When the supply-side response to these changes is accounted for, the per water heater year production cost savings for ISO-NE are $\$7.50$ to $\$17.70$ for the most effective set of endogenously dispatched aggregate ERWHs, $\$15.60$ to $\$15.70$ for individual ERWHs dispatched against the DA prices, and $\$10.70$ to $\$11.20$ for individual HPWHs dispatched against DA prices. Those ranges primarily represent the difference between Near-Term VG and Mid-Term VG grid conditions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating Production Implications of Pressure Maintenance in Unconventional Oil and Gas Wells using a Machine Learning Modeling Approach: Case Study in the Permian Basin

This study implements the proprietary machine learning-based model (model) developed under the 2022 study titled “Evaluating the Impact of Proprietary Oil & Gas Data on Machine Learning Model Performance Using a Quasi-Experimental Analytical Approach” for forecasting unconventional oil and gas production using well data from the Permian Basin. The model, developed using an exclusive dataset that includes time series production data from an operator in the Permian Basin, is designed to jointly predict daily oil, gas, and water production for horizontal wells as a function of bottomhole pressure drawdown, spatial placement across the study domain, and well-completion attributes. In this study, the model was explicitly applied to explore its utility to evaluate the impact of varying drawdown strategies on the production forecast of a well in the Permian Basin dataset. Managing pressure drawdown has been identified as a way to improve estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) from unconventional shale wells due to the stress-dependent nature of fractures in shale reservoirs. Research has shown that applying a lower pressure drawdown helps to maintain the reservoir conductivity, resulting in higher productivity over the life of a well. Historic bottomhole pressure data from the well over time was used as a benchmark from which to set more and less aggressive pressure decline rates as bounding modeling cases. All pressure decline rates/strategies were forecasted over 5 years, and the model was used to generate oil, water, and gas prediction over the same timeframe. This report presents the results from the production forecast and discusses potential operational and economic implications, with contrasting perspectives between well productivity and profitability given typical oil and gas economics and the volatility in the oil and gas market.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reducing Grid Costs while Abating Emissions: Opportunities for Flexible Building Loads

This study evaluates the value of technology-agnostic, shiftable flexible building loads in modeled 2030 and 2040 U.S. grids for four types of customers under three potential aggregated distributed energy resources programs. The value examined includes monetary value from providing grid services (e.g., energy, capacity, flexibility reserve, regulation reserve, contingency reserve) and from reducing greenhouse gas emissions. By comparing more than 845,164,800 simulated shifting opportunities, the study finds that the timing of consumption is critical for profit-driven customers. A program that is activated for 30 critical hours of system operation can result in to $73 per year in revenue for 1 kWh of shiftable load. Emission reduction, on the other hand, is best accumulated through a year-round program: 1 kWh of shiftable load can lead to up to 487.9 kg CO2e carbon reduction per year. The report also provides detailed insights on the trade-off between revenue and emissions, regional variation, short- versus medium- term value, and impacts from various building flexibility parameters, such as shifting window and dissipation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗