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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Medium-Range River Flood Forecasts Using a Long Short-Term Memory Network

River flooding and the impacts are a concern for decision makers throughout the United States. Accurate medium-range forecasts (~3-7 days) are critical for providing advanced outlooks to emergency management officials. Unfortunately, accurately forecasting rainfall-runoff and the subsequent rise and fall within rivers remain a challenge in hydrological modeling. While complex physical modeling systems are the standard for representing the hydrological processes, they are computationally demanding and can require extensive calibration. Further, uncertainties remain in the model parameters and input data. The use of machine learning can reduce some of the computational demand while maintaining high accuracy. Therefore, this project makes use of a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network which explicitly accounts for the time-dependent nature of rainfall-runoff modeling. The developed LSTM was trained to predict river gauge height, or stage height, based on time-lagged input features which include: gauge height to initialize the model, the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center’s instance of the Land Information System (SPoRT-LIS) relative soil moisture to describe the rainfall infiltration rate, and 6-hr Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor quantitative precipitation estimate (MRMS QPE). The developed LSTM based system is then used to produce 7-day forecasts with a 6-hr temporal resolution using three different quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) from the NWS’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) model and the National Blend of Models (NBM). This trained modeling system has been implemented as an experimental product at over 100 different rivers in collaboration with at multiple National Weather Service (NWS) Forecast Offices and River Forecast Centers (RFC) across the eastern half of the United States. The developed LSTM model achieved average Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) 0.89 higher than the equivalent medium-range National Water Model ensemble member forecast over a 7-day forecast. In addition to the initial development and evaluation, this project has continued to expand. While the initial model was developed for precipitation dominated basins, expansion of the project has taken it to basins effected by snow melt. This presentation will provide an overview of the project with focus on recent developments on incorporating snow melt processes into the model.

Andrew T. White↗

NASA NTRS1978

Optimum thermal infrared bands for mapping general rock type and temperature from space

A study was carried out to determine quantitatively the number and locations of spectral bands required to perform general rock-type discrimination from spaceborne imaging sensors using only thermal infrared measurements. Beginning with laboratory spectra collected under idealized conditions from relatively well characterized, homogeneous samples, a radiative transfer model was employed to transform ground exitance values into the corresponding spectral radiance at the top of the atmosphere. Taking sensor noise into account analysis of these data revealed that three 1 micrometer wide spectral bands would permit independent estimators of rock-type and sample temperature from a satellite infrared multispectral scanner. This study, indicates that the location of three spectral bands at 8.1-9.1 micrometers, 9.5-10.5 micrometers and 11.0-12.0 micrometers, and the employment of appropriate preprocessing to minimize atmospheric effects makes it possible to predict general rock-type and temperature for a variety of atmospheric states and temperatures.

Holmes, Q. A.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Status of linear boundary-layer stability and the e to the nth method, with emphasis on swept-wing applications

The-state-of-the-art for the application of linear stability theory and the e to the nth power method for transition prediction and laminar flow control design are summarized, with analyses of previously published low disturbance, swept wing data presented. For any set of transition data with similar stream distrubance levels and spectra, the e to the nth power method for estimating the beginning of transition works reasonably well; however, the value of n can vary significantly, depending upon variations in disturbance field or receptivity. Where disturbance levels are high, the values of n are appreciably below the usual average value of 9 to 10 obtained for relatively low disturbance levels. It is recommended that the design of laminar flow control systems be based on conservative estimates of n and that, in considering the values of n obtained from different analytical approaches or investigations, the designer explore the various assumptions which entered into the analyses.

Hefner, J. N.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Continuation in a parameter - Experience with viscous and free surface flows

The results of modifications in continuation methods applied to obtain solutions to the Navier-Stokes systems of equations for incompressible, two-dimensional, steady flows are reported. It is shown that parameter continuation permits prediction of accurate, initial estimates for iterative processing of nonlinear finite difference and finite element equations of motions. The new parameter steps are derived from values of the preceding parameter steps. The accuracy of the estimates is ensured with appropriate choices of the step size. The continuation predictor/iterative corrector is demonstrated to trace the branches of parameter space along which steady flow states are found, and techniques are available for tracing multiply branching paths. The techniques are applied to solving the Navier-Stokes equations for flow through a rotating square channel, the formation of a falling liquid curtain, and gyrostatic equilibria of rotating cylindrical drops.

Kheshgi, H. S.↗

NASA NTRS1986

COFS 1: Beam dynamics and control technology overview

The Control of Flexible Structures (COFS) 1 Project provides the invaluable opportunity to test, validate, and measure the effectiveness of theories, structural concepts, control systems, and flight certification processes for future missions through a research program focusing on multiple issues in large flexible structures, dynamics, and controls. The COFS 1 Project consists of a series of ground and flight activities building progressively from modeling and dynamic characterization of large space systems to the more complex issues of flexible-body control. The program objectives are to: determine the degree to which theory and ground testing can predict flight performance of next-generation low-frequency structures; evaluate structural fidelity of representative next-generation large deployable precision structure; assess math modeling requirements for large lightweight complex systems on which ground test results are questionable; determine degree to which scale model analysis and tests can be correlated to full-scale performance; evaluate system identification and state estimation algorithms on complex lightweight structures in the space environment; evaluate and verify controls/structures modeling capability; evaluate control laws and control systems; and evaluate damping effects in micro-g environment.

Allen, John L.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Space and radiation protection: scientific requirements for space research

Ionizing radiation poses a significant risk to humans living and working in space. The major sources of radiation are solar disturbances and galactic cosmic rays. The components of this radiation are energetic charged particles, protons, as well as fully ionized nuclei of all elements. The biological effects of these particles cannot be extrapolated in a straightforward manner from available data on x-rays and gamma-rays. A radiation protection program that meets the needs of spacefaring nations must have a solid scientific basis, capable not only of predicting biological effects, but also of making reliable estimates of the uncertainty in these predictions. A strategy leading to such predictions is proposed, and scientific requirements arising from this strategy are discussed.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗

NASA NTRS2015

Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Mission Level 4 Surface and Root Zone Soil Moisture (L4_SM) Product Specification Document

This is the Product Specification Document (PSD) for Level 4 Surface and Root Zone Soil Moisture (L4_SM) data for the Science Data System (SDS) of the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) project. The L4_SM data product provides estimates of land surface conditions based on the assimilation of SMAP observations into a customized version of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5) land data assimilation system (LDAS). This document applies to any standard L4_SM data product generated by the SMAP Project. The Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission will enhance the accuracy and the resolution of space-based measurements of terrestrial soil moisture and freeze-thaw state. SMAP data products will have a noteworthy impact on multiple relevant and current Earth Science endeavors. These include: Understanding of the processes that link the terrestrial water, the energy and the carbon cycles, Estimations of global water and energy fluxes over the land surfaces, Quantification of the net carbon flux in boreal landscapes Forecast skill of both weather and climate, Predictions and monitoring of natural disasters including floods, landslides and droughts, and Predictions of agricultural productivity. To provide these data, the SMAP mission will deploy a satellite observatory in a near polar, sun synchronous orbit. The observatory will house an L-band radiometer that operates at 1.40 GHz and an L-band radar that operates at 1.26 GHz. The instruments will share a rotating reflector antenna with a 6 meter aperture that scans over a 1000 km swath.

L4-SM↗

NASA NTRS1998

Optical model methods of predicting nuclide production from spallation reactions

Quantum mechanical optical model methods for calculating isotope production cross sections from the spallation of heavy nuclei by high-energy protons are developed from a modified abrasion-ablation collision formalism. The abrasion step is treated quantum-mechanically as a knockout process which leaves the residual prefragment nucleus in an excited state. In ablation the prefragment deexcites to produce the final fragment. The excitation energies of the prefragments are estimated from a combination of liquid drop and frictional-spectator interaction considerations. Estimates of elemental and isotopic production cross sections are in good agreement with recently published cross section measurements.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗

NASA NTRS1998

Evaluation of risk from space radiation with high-energy heavy ion beams

The most challenging radiation in space consists of fully ionized atomic elements with high energy for which only the few lowest energy ions can be stopped in shielding materials. The health risk from exposure to these ions and their secondary radiations generated in shield materials is poorly understood since there are few human data and a systematic study in relevant animal model systems has not been made. The accuracy of risk prediction is described as the major limiting factor in the management of space radiation risk. The expected impact of systematic studies is examined using the limited available biological data and models. Given the limitations of current predictions, models must be developed that are able to incorporate the required fundamental scientific data into accurate risk estimates. The important radiation components that can be provided for laboratory testing are identified. The use of ground-based accelerator beams to simulate space radiation is explained and quantitative scientific constraints on such facilities are derived. Three facilities, one each in the United States, in Germany and in Japan, currently have the partial capability to satisfy these constraints. A facility has been proposed using the Brookhaven National Laboratory Booster Synchrotron in the United States; in conjuction with other on-site accelerators, it will be able to provide the full range of heavy ion beams and energies required.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗

NASA NTRS2005

Magnetars

"Magnetars (Soft Gamma Repeaters and Anomalous X-ray Pulsars) are a subclass of neutron stars characterized by their recurrent X-ray bursts. While in an active (bursting) state, they are emitting hundreds of predominantly soft (kT=30 keV), short (0.1-100 ms long) events. Active states last anywhere between days and years. Their quiescent source X-ray light curves exhibit pulsations in the narrow range of 5-11 s; estimates of these rotational period rate changes (spin-down) indicate that their magnetic fields are extremely high, of the order of 10^14-10^15 G. Such high B-field objects, dubbed "magnetars", had been predicted to exist in 1992, but the first concrete observational evidence was obtained in 1998 for two of these sources. I will discuss here the recent spectacular results from SGR 1806-20, as well as the history of magnetars, and their spectral, timing and flux characteristics both in the persistent and their burst emission."

Kouveliotou, Chryssa↗

NASA NTRS2005

Magnetars

Magnetars (Soft Gamma Repeaters and Anomalous X-ray Pulsars) are a subclass of neutron stars characterized by their recurrent X-ray bursts. While in an active (bursting) state, they are emitting hundreds of predominantly soft (kT=30 keV), short (0.1-100 ms long) events. Active states last anywhere between days and years. Their quiescent source X-ray light curves exhibit pulsations in the narrow range of 5-11 s; estimates of their rotational period rate changes (spin-down) indicate that their magnetic fields are extremely high, of the order of 10^14-10^15 G. Such high B-field objects, dubbed "magnetars", had been predicted to exist in 1992, but the first ccncrete observational evidence was obtained in 1998 for two of these sources. I will discuss here the recent spectacular results from SGR 1806-20, as well as the history of magnetars, and their spectral, timing and flux characteristics both in the persistent and their burst emission.

Kouveliotou, Chryssa↗

NASA NTRS2011

Stardust-NExT, Deep Impact, and the Accelerating Spin of 9P/Tempel 1

The evolution of the spin rate of Comet 9P/Tempel 1 through two perihelion passages (in 2000 and 2005) is determined from 1922 Earth-based observations taken over a period of 13 year as part of a World-Wide observing campaign and from 2888 observations taken over a period of 50 days from the Deep Impact spacecraft. We determine the following sidereal spin rates (periods): 209.023 +/- 0.025deg/dy (41.335 0.005 h) prior to the 2000 perihelion passage, 210.448 +/- 0.016deg/dy (41.055 +/- 0.003 h) for the interval between the 2000 and 2005 perihelion passages, 211.856 +/- 0.030deg/dy (40.783 +/- 0.006 h) from Deep Impact photometry just prior to the 2005 perihelion passage, and 211.625 +/- 0.012deg/dy (40.827 +/- 0.002 h) in the interval 2006-2010 following the 2005 perihelion passage. The period decreased by 16.8 +/- 0.3 min during the 2000 passage and by 13.7 +/- 0.2 min during the 2005 passage suggesting a secular decrease in the net torque. The change in spin rate is asymmetric with respect to perihelion with the maximum net torque being applied on approach to perihelion. The Deep Impact data alone show that the spin rate was increasing at a rate of 0.024 +/- 0.003deg/dy/dy at JD2453530.60510 (i.e., 25.134 dy before impact), which provides independent confirmation of the change seen in the Earth-based observations. The rotational phase of the nucleus at times before and after each perihelion and at the Deep Impact encounter is estimated based on the Thomas et al. (Thomas et al. [2007]. Icarus 187, 4-15) pole and longitude system. The possibility of a 180deg error in the rotational phase is assessed and found to be significant. Analytical and physical modeling of the behavior of the spin rate through of each perihelion is presented and used as a basis to predict the rotational state of the nucleus at the time of the nominal (i.e., prior to February 2010) Stardust-NExT encounter on 2011 February 14 at 20:42. We find that a net torque in the range of 0.3-2.5 x 10(exp 7) kg/sq m/sq s acts on the nucleus during perihelion passage. The spin rate initially slows down on approach to perihelion and then passes through a minimum. It then accelerates rapidly as it passes through perihelion eventually reaching a maximum post-perihelion. It then decreases to a stable value as the nucleus moves away from the Sun. We find that the pole direction is unlikely to precess by more than approx. 1deg per perihelion passage. The trend of the period with time and the fact that the modeled peak torque occurs before perihelion are in agreement with published accounts of trends in water production rate and suggests that widespread H2O out-gassing from the surface is largely responsible for the observed spin-up.

Belton, Michael J. S.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Prognostics Applied to Electric Propulsion UAV

Health management plays an important role in operations of UAV. If there is equipment malfunction on critical components, safe operation of the UAV might possibly be compromised. A technology with particular promise in this arena is equipment prognostics. This technology provides a state assessment of the health of components of interest and, if a degraded state has been found, it estimates how long it will take before the equipment will reach a failure threshold, conditional on assumptions about future operating conditions and future environmental conditions. This chapter explores the technical underpinnings of how to perform prognostics and shows an implementation on the propulsion of an electric UAV. A particle filter is shown as the method of choice in performing state assessment and predicting future degradation. The method is then applied to the batteries that provide power to the propeller motors. An accurate run-time battery life prediction algorithm is of critical importance to ensure the safe operation of the vehicle if one wants to maximize in-air time. Current reliability based techniques turn out to be insufficient to manage the use of such batteries where loads vary frequently in uncertain environments.

Batteries↗

NASA NTRS1999

Optical model methods of predicting nuclide production cross sections from heavy ion fragmentation

Quantum mechanical optical potential methods for calculating inclusive isotope and element production cross sections from the fragmenting of heavy nuclei by intermediate- and high-energy protons and heavy ions are presented based upon a modified abrasion-ablation-FSI (frictional spectator interaction) collision model. The abrasion stage is treated as a quantum mechanical knockout process that leaves the residual prefragment in an excited state. Prefragment excitation energies are estimated using a combined liquid drop and FSI method. In ablation the prefragment deexcites by particle and photon emission to produce the final fragment. Contributions from electromagnetic dissociation to single nucleon removal cross sections are incorporated using a Weiszacker-Williams theory that includes electric dipole and electric quadrupole interactions. Estimates of elemental and isotopic production cross sections are in good agreement with published cross section measurements for a variety of projectile-target-beam energy combinations.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗

NASA NTRS1972

The excitation of O2 in auroras

Newly measured electron impact cross sections for excitation of the a 1 Delta g and b 1 Sigma g+ electronic states of O2 were employed to predict the absolute volume emission rates from these states under auroral conditions. A secondary electron electron flux typical of an IBC II nighttime aurora was used and the most important quenching processes were included in the calculations. The new excitation cross sections for the a 1 Delta g and b 1 Sigma g+ states are more than an order of magnitude larger than previous estimates, and lead to correspondingly greater intensities in the atmospheric and IR-atmospheric band systems. The calculated intensity ratios of the volume emission rates of 7621 A and 1.27 microns to that for 3914 A are smaller than obtained from aircraft observations and recent rocket experiments.

Cartwright, D. C.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

ACS3 - Flight Dynamics for A Solar Sail Technology Demonstration Mission

The NASA's Advanced Composite Solar Sail System (ACS3) mission consist of a spacecraft that will deploy an 80 m 2 solar sail in a 1000 km sun-synchronous orbit. The main objective of the mission is to demonstrate that the solar wind can impulse the spacecraft to change the semimajor-axis and obtain a different orbit altitude. The sail will be composed of a combination of composite materials with distinct properties, and it will be deployed with lightweight booms from a 12U CubeSat bus, developed by Nanoavionics. The spacecraft will be launched aboard an Electron launch vehicle from Rocket LAB Launch Complex in New Zealand no earlier than July 2023. This paper covers the orbital mechanics and navigation developments to support the mission, from the solar sail trajectory model to the actual flight dynamics system to provide the orbit determination analysis prior to flight. First, we introduce a description of our high-fidelity propagation that accounts for the solar radiation pressure to produce predictive ephemeris of the solar sail performance with several spacecraft attitude modes. As part of our results, we present plots of the expected altitudes achieved by the spacecraft once the solar sail is deployed under various assumptions of the solar weather. In addition to that, we present a full description of our orbit determination process which relies in GPS state vectors to accurately estimate the position and velocity uncertainties at a frequent cadence during the mission. The outcome of this process will be critical to achieving the objective of determining effective altitude change produced by the solar sail.

Solar Sail↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

ACS3: Flight Dynamics

The NASA's Advanced Composite Solar Sail System (ACS3) mission consist of a spacecraft that will deploy an 80 m2 solar sail in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). The main objective of the mission is to demonstrate that the solar wind can impulse the spacecraft to change the semimajor-axis and obtain a different orbit altitude. The sail will be composed of a combination of composite materials with distinct properties, and it will be deployed with lightweight booms from a 12U CubeSat bus, developed by Nanoavionics. The spacecraft will be launched aboard an Electron launch vehicle from Rocket LAB Launch Complex in New Zealand. This paper covers the orbital mechanics and navigation developments to support the mission, from the solar sail trajectory model to the actual flight dynamics system to provide the orbit determination analysis prior to flight. First, we introduce a description of our high-fidelity propagation that accounts for the solar radiation pressure to produce predictive ephemeris of the solar sail performance with several spacecraft attitude modes. As part of our results, we present plots of the expected altitudes achieved by the spacecraft once the solar sail is deployed under various assumptions of the solar weather. In addition to that, we present a full description of our orbit determination process which relies in GPS state vectors to accurately estimate the position and velocity uncertainties at a frequent cadence during the mission. The outcome of this process will be critical to achieving the objective of determining effective altitude change produced by the solar sail.

Solar sail↗

NASA NTRS1986

Control effectiveness characterization for state estimation and control on a highly flexible grid

Control effectiveness tests of reaction wheel actuators on a highly flexible grid are reported herein. Analytic determination of actuator control effectiveness is accomplished with finite element modelling. Experimental determination is done with two algorithms. The first is an equation error parameter identification scheme which estimates the control coefficients of the second order difference equation model of each vibration mode. The second is a least square error algorithm using the same model. For both methods there is a lack of agreement with analytic prediction.

Montgomery, R. C.↗