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At least 415 records · Page 23

Predicting Airspace Capacity Impacts Using the Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation

Convective weather is currently the largest contributor to air traffic delays in the United States. In order to make effective traffic flow management decisions to mitigate these delays, weather forecasts must be made as early and as accurately as possible. A forecast product that could be used to mitigate convective weather impacts is the Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation. This product provides forecasts of cloud water content and convective top heights at 0- to 8-hour look-ahead times. The objective of this study was to examine a method of predicting the impact of convective weather on air traffic sector capacities using these forecasts. Polygons representing forecast convective weather were overlaid at multiple flight levels on a sector map to calculate the fraction of each sector covered by weather. The fractional volume coverage was used as the primary metric to determine convection s impact on sectors. Results reveal that the forecasts can be used to predict the probability and magnitude of weather impacts on sector capacity up to eight hours in advance.

Russell, Carl↗

Ground Based Studies of Gas-Liquid Flows in Microgravity Using Learjet Trajectories

A 1.27 cm diameter two phase gas-liquid flow experiment has been developed with the NASA Lewis Research Center to study two-phase flows in microgravity. The experiment allows for the measurement of void fraction, pressure drop, film thickness and bubble and wave velocities as well as for high speed photography. Three liquids were used to study the effects of liquid viscosity and surface tension, and flow pattern maps are presented for each. The experimental results are used to develop mechanistically based models to predict void fraction, bubble velocity, pressure drop and flow pattern transitions in microgravity.

Bousman, W. S.↗

Electrodynamics of the Inner Magnetosphere Observed in the Dusk Sector by CRRES and DMSP during the Magnetic Storm of June 4-6, 1991

We compare equatorward/earthward boundaries of convection electric fields and auroral/plasma sheet electrons detected by the DMSP F8 and CRRES satellites during the June 1991 magnetic storm. Measurements come from the dusk magnetic local time sector where the ring current penetrates closest to the Earth. The storm was triggered by a rapid increase in the solar wind dynamic pressure accompanied by a southward turning of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). Satellite data show the following: (1) all particle and field boundaries moved equatorward/earthward during the initial phase, probably in response to the strong southward IMF turning; (2) electric field boundaries were either at lower magnetic L shells or close to the inner edge of ring current ions throughout the main and early recovery phases. Penetration earthward of the ring current occurred twice as the polar cap potential increased rapidly; (3) electric potentials at subauroral latitudes were large fractions of the total potentials in the afternoon cell, twice exceeding 60 kV; and (4) the boundaries of auroral electron precipitation were more variable than those of electric fields and mapped to lower L shells than where CRRES encountered plasma sheet electrons. Observations qualitatively agree with predictions of empirical models for auroral electron and electric field boundaries.

Bruke, W. J.↗

Assessing Operational Total Lightning Visualization Products

In May 2003, NASA's Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) program successfully provided total lightning data from the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA) to the National Weather Service (NWS) office in Huntsville, Alabama. The major accomplishment was providing the observations in real-time to the NWS in the native Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) decision support system. Within days, the NALMA data were used to issue a tornado warning initiating seven years of ongoing support to the NWS' severe weather and situational awareness operations. With this success, SPoRT now provides real-time NALMA data to five forecast offices as well as working to transition data from total lightning networks at Kennedy Space Center and the White Sands Missile Range to the surrounding NWS offices. The only NALMA product that has been transitioned to SPoRT's partner NWS offices is the source density product, available at a 2 km resolution in 2 min intervals. However, discussions with users of total lightning data from other networks have shown that other products are available, ranging from spatial and temporal variations of the source density product to the creation of a flash extent density. SPoRT and the Huntsville, Alabama NWS are evaluating the utility of these variations as this has not been addressed since the initial transition in 2003. This preliminary analysis will focus on what products will best support the operational warning decision process. Data from 19 April 2009 are analyzed. On this day, severe thunderstorms formed ahead of an approaching cold front. Widespread severe weather was observed, primarily south of the Tennessee River with multiple, weak tornadoes, numerous severe hail reports, and wind. This preliminary analysis is the first step in evaluation which product(s) are best suited for operations. The ultimate goal is selecting a single product for use with all total lightning networks to streamline training and science sharing.

Stano, Geoffrey T.↗

Global Wetland Contribution to 2000-2012 Atmospheric Methane Growth Rate Dynamics

Increasing atmospheric methane (CH4) concentrations have contributed to approximately 20% of anthropogenic climate change. Despite the importance of CH4 as a greenhouse gas, its atmospheric growth rate and dynamics over the past two decades, which include a stabilization period (1999-2006), followed by renewed growth starting in 2007, remain poorly understood. We provide an updated estimate of CH4 emissions from wetlands, the largest natural global CH4 source, for 2000-2012 using an ensemble of biogeochemical models constrained with remote sensing surface inundation and inventory-based wetland area data. Between 2000-2012, boreal wetland CH4 emissions increased by 1.2 Tg yr(sup -1) (-0.2-3.5 Tg yr(sup -1), tropical emissions decreased by 0.9 Tg yr(sup -1) (-3.2-1.1 Tg yr(sup -1), yet globally, emissions remained unchanged at 184 +/- 22 Tg yr(sup -1). Changing air temperature was responsible for increasing high-latitude emissions whereas declines in low-latitude wetland area decreased tropical emissions; both dynamics are consistent with features of predicted centennial-scale climate change impacts on wetland CH4 emissions. Despite uncertainties in wetland area mapping, our study shows that global wetland CH4 emissions have not contributed significantly to the period of renewed atmospheric CH4 growth, and is consistent with findings from studies that indicate some combination of increasing fossil fuel and agriculture-related CH4 emissions, and a decrease in the atmospheric oxidative sink.

Poulter, Benjamin↗

Geospatial Analysis and Remote Sensing from Airplanes and Satellites for Cultural Resources Management

Cultural resource management consists of research to identify, evaluate, document and assess cultural resources, planning to assist in decision-making, and stewardship to implement the preservation, protection and interpretation of these decisions and plans. One technique that may be useful in cultural resource management archaeology is remote sensing. It is the acquisition of data and derivative information about objects or materials (targets) located on the Earth's surface or in its atmosphere by using sensor mounted on platforms located at a distance from the targets to make measurements on interactions between the targets and electromagnetic radiation. Included in this definition are systems that acquire imagery by photographic methods and digital multispectral sensors. Data collected by digital multispectral sensors on aircraft and satellite platforms play a prominent role in many earth science applications, including land cover mapping, geology, soil science, agriculture, forestry, water resource management, urban and regional planning, and environmental assessments. Inherent in the analysis of remotely sensed data is the use of computer-based image processing techniques. Geographical information systems (GIS), designed for collecting, managing, and analyzing spatial information, are also useful in the analysis of remotely sensed data. A GIS can be used to integrate diverse types of spatially referenced digital data, including remotely sensed and map data. In archaeology, these tools have been used in various ways to aid in cultural resource projects. For example, they have been used to predict the presence of archaeological resources using modern environmental indicators. Remote sensing techniques have also been used to directly detect the presence of unknown sites based on the impact of past occupation on the Earth's surface. Additionally, remote sensing has been used as a mapping tool aimed at delineating the boundaries of a site or mapping previously unknown features. All of these applications are pertinent to the goals of site discovery and assessment in cultural resource management.

Giardino, Marco J.↗

TOPEX/POSEIDON - Mapping the ocean surface

Global efforts are under way to model the earth as a complete planet so that weather patterns may be predicted on time scales of months and years. A major limitation in developing models of global weather is the inability to model the circulation of the oceans including the geostrophic surface currents. NASA will soon be initiating a satellite program to correct this deficiency by directly measuring these currents using the science of radar altimetry. Measurement of the ocean topography with broad, frequent coverage of all ocean basins for a long period of time will allow the derivation of the spatial and temporal behavior of surface ocean currents. The TOPEX/POSEIDON mission is a cooperative effort between NASA and the French Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales. This paper describes the goals of this research mission, the data type to be acquired, the satellite and sensors to be used to acquire the data, and the methods by which the data are to be processed and utilized.

Yamarone, C. A.↗

Design and predicted performance of the GPS demonstration receiver for the NASA Topex satellite

NASA's Ocean Topography Experiment (Topex) satellite will perform topographic ocean mapping. Topex will carry an experimental tracking system based on the use of GPS (Global Positioning System). An onboard GPS Demonstration Receiver (GPSDR) will be used with a network of up to ten receivers at precisely known ground sites. Following a brief overview of the Topex mission and its derived accuracy requirements, the authors describe the design of the GPSDR. The major hardware and software components are reviewed and discussed. Projected receiver tracking and navigation performance measures are presented and discussed.

Carson, Lance↗

Interpretation of Probabilistic Surface Ozone Forecasts: A Case Study for Philadelphia

The use of probabilistic forecasting has been growing in a variety of disciplines because of its potential to emphasize the degree of uncertainty inherent in a prediction. Interpretation of probabilistic forecasts, however, is oftentimes difficult, deterring users who may benefit from such forecasts. To encourage broader use of probabilistic forecasts in the field of air quality, a process for interpreting forecasts from a statistical probabilistic air quality surface ozone model [the Regression in Self Organizing Map (REGiS)] is demonstrated. Four procedures to convert probabilistic to deterministic forecasts are explored for the Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, metropolitan area. These procedures calibrate the predicted probability of daily maximum 8-h-average ozone exceeding a standard value by 1) estimating climatological relative frequency, 2) establishing a probability of an exceedance threshold as 50%, 3) maximizing the threat score, and 4) determining the unit bias ratio. REGiS is trained using 2000–11 ozone-season (1 May–30 September) data, calibrated using 2012–14 data, and evaluated using 2015–18 data. Assessment of the calibration data with the Pierce skill score suggests an exceedance threshold based on climatological relative frequency for the conversion from probabilistic to deterministic forecasts. Calibrated REGiS generally compares well to predictions from the U.S. national air quality model and operational “expert” forecasts over the evaluation period. For other probabilistic models and situations, different procedures of converting probabilistic to deterministic forecasts may be more beneficial. The methods presented in this paper represent an approach for operational air quality forecasters seeking to use probabilistic model output to support forecasts designed to protect public health.

Nikolay Balashov↗

A comparison of CO(J = 1 yields 0) and CO(J = 2 yields 1) emission in the Milky Way molecular ring

We have carried out a CO (J = 2 right arrow 1) survey of the Scutum Arm region of the Milky Way molecular ring. Our goals are to compare CO (J = 2 right arrow 1) maps of individual Galactic clouds with the large-scale CO (J = 2 right arrow 1) emission from the Galactic plane, and to predict the CO (J = 2 right arrow 1) appearance of a Galactic cloud ensemble in an external galaxy. The angular resolution and spatial coverage of our survey are compatible with the existing CO (J = 1 right arrow 0) survey of this region by Sanders et al., which we use for comparison. We identify 34 molecular clouds in our map region; their relationships between size and line width and between virial mass and luminosity are consistent with the relationships seen in CO (J = 1 right arrow 0) emission. However, we note that previous studies have shown considerable variation in these relationships; we attribute much of this variation to differences in their cloud definition algorithm and statistical method. We find that the median ratio of integrated emission in the two lowest CO transitions for the clouds in our sample is I(2 right arrow 1)/ I(1 right arrow 0) = 0.69, implying that the typical emitting region in the line of sight contains cold gas that is not actively star-forming. Our conclusion that the molecular ring emission is not dominated by star-forming regions is consistent with other large-scale studies of the Milky Way. Our distributions of cloud size and temperature also imply that relatively massive molecular clouds that lac k star formation, such as Maddalena's cloud, are not rare in the inner Galaxy.

Chiar, Jean E.↗

Evaluating near-real time satellite flood mapping for humanitarian early action: a case study on the 2020 Cambodia floods

Forecast-based early action is an increasingly popular framework advocating for the use of numerical weather prediction to set objective, automatic conditions for roll-out of proactive flood risk reduction efforts. Within this field, there is a relatively young discourse regarding the potential value of satellite Earth observations and the optimal role that remote sensing should play in improving the efficacy and value of forecast-based early action for flood management. The Hydrological Remote Sensing Analysis for Floods tool (HYDRAFloods) was developed to provide automated, near real-time satellite-based flood extent maps to local governments, disaster managers, and humanitarian organizations. This research evaluates (a.) whether HYDRAFloods satisfactorily met needs identified by humanitarian partners during the October 2020 floods in Cambodia, and (b.) whether the novel additions of near real-time data and flood extent mapping resulted in demonstrable advantages over previous forecast-based flood early action systems as identified in the literature. From these results, the authors identify the technological and logistical limitations of the HYDRAFloods methodology and synthesize actionable recommendations for Earth observations practitioners seeking to better support forecast-based early action.

floods↗

Formation and Evolution of Lakshmi Planum (V-7), Venus: Assessment of Models using Observations from Geological Mapping

Lakshmi Planum is a high-standing plateau (3.5-4.5 km above MPR) surrounded by the highest mountain ranges on Venus. Lakshmi represents a unique type of elevated region different from dome-shaped and rifted rises and tessera-bearing crustal plateaus. The unique characteristics of Lakshmi suggest that it formed by an unusual combination of processes and played an important role in Venus geologic history. Lakshmi was studied with Venera-15/16 and Magellan data, resulting in two classes of models, divergent and convergent, to explain its unusual topographic and morphologic characteristics. Divergent models explain Lakshmi as a site of mantle upwelling due to rising and subsequent collapse of a mantle diapir; such models explain emplacement of a lava plateau inside Lakshmi and, in some circumstances, formation of the mountain ranges. The convergent models consider Lakshmi as a locus of mantle downwelling, convergence, underthrusting, and possible subduction. Key features in these models are the mountain ranges, high topography of Lakshmi interior, and the large volcanic centers in the plateau center. These divergent and convergent models entail principally different mechanisms of formation and suggest different geodynamic regimes on Venus. Almost all models make either explicit or implicit predictions about the type and sequence of major events during formation and evolution of Lakshmi and thus detailed geological mapping can be used to test them. Here we present the results of such geological mapping (the V-7 quadrangle, 50-75degN, 300-360degE; scale 1:5M) that allows testing the proposed models for Lakshmi.

Ivanov, M. A.↗

Simultaneous mapping of the unsteady flow fields by Particle Displacement Velocimetry (PDV)

Current experimental and computational techniques must be improved in order to advance the prediction capability of the longitudinal vortical flows shed by underwater vehicles. The generation, development, and breakdown mechanisms of the shed vortices at high Reynolds numbers are not fully understood. The ability to measure hull separated vortices associated with vehicle maneuvering does not exist at present. The existing point-by-point measurement techniques can only capture approximately the large 'mean' eddies but fail to meet the dynamics of small vortices during the initial stage of generation. A new technique, which offers a previously unavailable capability to measure the unsteady cross-flow distribution in the plane of the laser light sheet, is called Particle Displacement Velocimetry (PDV). PDV consists of illuminating a thin section of the flowfield with a pulsed laser. The water is seeded with microscopic, neutrally buoyant particles containing imbedded fluorescing dye which responds with intense spontaneous fluorescence with the illuminated section. The seeded particles in the vortical flow structure shed by the underwater vehicle are illuminated by the pulse laser and the corresponding particle traces are recorded in a single photographic frame. Two distinct approaches were utilized for determining the velocity distribution from the particle traces. The first method is based on matching the traces of the same particle and measuring the distance between them. The direction of the flow can be identified by keeping one of the pulses longer than the other. The second method is based on selecting a small window within the image and finding the mean shift of all the particles within that region. The computation of the auto-correlation of the intensity distribution within the selected sample window is used to determine the mean displacement of particles. The direction of the flow is identified by varying the intensity of the laser light between pulses. Considerable computational resources are required to compute the auto-correction of the intensity distribution. Parallel processing will be employed to speed up the data reduction. A few examples of measured unsteady vortical flow structures shed by the underwater vehicles will be presented.

Huang, Thomas T.↗

The CHUVA Lightning Mapping Campaign

The primary science objective for the CHUVA lightning mapping campaign is to combine measurements of total lightning activity, lightning channel mapping, and detailed information on the locations of cloud charge regions of thunderstorms with the planned observations of the CHUVA (Cloud processes of tHe main precipitation systems in Brazil: A contribUtion to cloud resolVing modeling and to the GPM (GlobAl Precipitation Measurement) field campaign. The lightning campaign takes place during the CHUVA intensive observation period October-December 2011 in the vicinity of S o Luiz do Paraitinga with Brazilian, US, and European government, university and industry participants. Total lightning measurements that can be provided by ground-based regional 2-D and 3-D total lightning mapping networks coincident with overpasses of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and the SEVIRI (Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager) on the Meteosat Second Generation satellite in geostationary earth orbit will be used to generate proxy data sets for the next generation US and European geostationary satellites. Proxy data, which play an important role in the pre-launch mission development and in user readiness preparation, are used to develop and validate algorithms so that they will be ready for operational use quickly following the planned launch of the GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) in 2015 and the Meteosat Third Generation Lightning Imager (LI) in 2017. To date there is no well-characterized total lightning data set coincident with the imagers. Therefore, to take the greatest advantage of this opportunity to collect detailed and comprehensive total lightning data sets, test and validate multi-sensor nowcasting applications for the monitoring, tracking, warning, and prediction of severe and high impact weather, and to advance our knowledge of thunderstorm physics, extensive measurements from lightning mapping networks will be collected in conjunction with electric field mills, field change sensors, high speed cameras and other lightning sensors, dual-polarimetric radars, and aircraft in-situ microphysics which will allow for excellent cross-network inter-comparisons, assessments, and physical understanding.

Goodman, Steven J.↗

A Performance Prediction Model for a Fault-Tolerant Computer During Recovery and Restoration

The modeling and design of a fault-tolerant multiprocessor system is addressed. In particular, the behavior of the system during recovery and restoration after a fault has occurred is investigated. Given that a multicomputer system is designed using the Algorithm to Architecture to Mapping Model (ATAMM), and that a fault (death of a computing resource) occurs during its normal steady-state operation, a model is presented as a viable research tool for predicting the performance bounds of the system during its recovery and restoration phases. Furthermore, the bounds of the performance behavior of the system during this transient mode can be assessed. These bounds include: time to recover from the fault (t(sub rec)), time to restore the system (t(sub rec)) and whether there is a permanent delay in the system's Time Between Input and Output (TBIO) after the system has reached a steady state. An implementation of an ATAMM based computer was developed with the Generic VHSIC Spaceborne Computer (GVSC) as the target system. A simulation of the GVSC was also written based on the code used in ATAMM Multicomputer Operating System (AMOS). The simulation is in turn used to validate the new model in the usefulness and accuracy in tracking the propagation of the delay through the system and predicting the behavior in the transient state of recovery and restoration. The model is validated as an accurate method to predict the transient behavior of an ATAMM based multicomputer during recovery and restoration.

Stoughton, John W.↗

Overview of a stirling engine test project

Tests were conducted on three Stirling engines ranging in size from 1.33 to 53 horsepower (1 to 40 kW). The tests were directed toward developing alternative, backup component concepts to improve engine efficiency and performance or to reduce costs. Some of the activities included investigating attractive concepts and materials for cooler-regenerator units, installing a jet impingement device on a Stirling engine to determine its potential for improved engine performance, and presenting performance maps for initial characterization of Stirling engines. The experiment results of the tests are presented along with predictions of results of future tests to be conducted on the Stirling engines.

Slaby, J. G.↗

Flow aerodynamics modeling of an MHD swirl combustor - Calculations and experimental verification

This paper describes a computer code for calculating the flow dynamics of constant density flow in the second stage trumpet shaped nozzle section of a two stage MHD swirl combustor for application to a disk generator. The primitive pressure-velocity variable, finite difference computer code has been developed to allow the computation of inert nonreacting turbulent swirling flows in an axisymmetric MHD model swirl combustor. The method and program involve a staggered grid system for axial and radial velocities, and a line relaxation technique for efficient solution of the equations. Turbulence simulation is by way of a two-equation Kappa-epsilon model. The code produces as output the flowfield map of the nondimensional stream function, axial, and swirl velocity. Good agreement was obtained between the theoretical predictions and the qualitative experimental results. The best seed injector location for uniform seed distribution at combustor exit is with injector located centrally on the combustor axis at entrance to the second stage combustor.

Gupta, A. K.↗

Neutral parcel transport in the high latitude F-region

The NCAR Thermospheric General Circulation model (TGCM) is used together with a 'post-processor' diagnostic package to analyze neutral parcel transport in the high latitude F-region. The diagnostic package includes a feature that enables individual parcels of neutral gas to be tracked by interpolation through the TGCM model grid in time and space. Various trajectories have been calculated to illustrate the predicted loci of neutral gas parcels that encounter large ion-drag forces due to the ionospheric mapping of the magnetospheric convection electric field. The trajectories, calculated for a 'steady state', diurnally reproducible run of the TGCM, show that the cusp region plays an exceedingly important regulatory or nozzle role for the overall flow pattern and has great influence on the energization of the F-region polar cap. In particular, it is found that the trajectory of a 'typical' F-region neutral gas parcel passes through the cusp region at least once and sometimes twice in a 24 hour period due to the convergent geometry of the ion convection pattern.

Killeen, T. L.↗