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At least 415 records · Page 23

Zonal-Based Emission Source Term Model for Predicting Particulate Emission Factors in Wildfire Simulations

A physics/chemistry-based numerical model for predicting the emission of fine particles from wildfires is proposed. This model implements the fundamental mechanisms of soot formation in a combustion environment: soot nucleation, surface growth, agglomeration, oxidation, and particle fragmentation. These mechanisms occur on a scale too fine for the discretization of most wildfire models, which need to simulate landscape-scale dynamics. As a result this model implements a zonal approach, where the computed soot particle distribution is partitioned into process zones within a single resolved grid cell. These process zones include: an inception zone (for nucleation), a heating zone (for coagulation, surface growth, and fragmentation), a reaction zone (for oxidation), and a quenched zone (for atmospheric processes). Governing mechanisms are applied to the appropriate zones to predict total particle growth and emission. Additionally, the proposed model is implemented into HIGRAD/FIRETEC, a physics-based wildfire simulation code which couples interactions between fire, fuels, atmosphere, and topography on a landscape scale. Fire simulations among grasslands and conifer forests are performed and compared against experimental data for emission factors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Residential segregation and outdoor urban moist heat stress disparities in the United States

The combined impact of urbanization-induced warming and drying on large-scale heat stress disparities remains unknown, with multicity studies using satellite-derived land surface temperature as a proxy for these disparities. Here, using high-resolution urban-resolving numerical model simulations for 2014–2018, we find pervasive disparities in all-sky average maximum summertime air temperature and moist heat stress metrics across US cities, with higher outdoor heat stress exposure in poorer and primarily non-white census tracts. Ninety-four percent of the US urban population (228 million) live in cities where heat stress burdens the poor, with heat stress inequities between white and non-white populations strongly associated with residential segregation. Similarly, historically redlined neighborhoods show higher heat stress than their non-redlined counterparts, demonstrating how historical segregation relates to present-day environmental inequalities. Our results provide quantitative estimates of physiologically relevant heat stress disparities at the US national scale and highlight potential biases when using satellites as a proxy for these.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hydrokinetic tidal energy resource assessment following international electrotechnical commission guidelines

Marine renewable energy can be used as a viable energy source to alleviate the impact of the climate crisis and have a carbon-free electricity sector in the future. Especially the energetic tidal streams are an attractive source of clean energy due to the periodic occurrence of high tidal flows daily. However, before any deployment of tidal turbine farms, it is essential to perform a resource assessment depending on the scope and scale of the project. Here, the International Electrotechnical Commission has developed a technical standard for assessing the tidal stream resource "IEC 62600-201 TS" to aid in this effort: determine a particular site's feasibility and perform the project layout design. In this study, we implemented and validated a high-resolution three-dimensional numerical model and provided results following the IEC TS for a project layout design in a highly energetic tidal channel, Tacoma Narrows of Puget Sound, in the State of Washington, USA. Implementation of the guidelines has helped adequately identify the undisturbed theoretical and technical resources with less bias, where the latter included energy extraction from the flow field arranging a hypothetical tidal energy converter (TEC) array. Also, following the standard, we carefully assessed the changes to channel flow properties from TECs, such as the kinetic energy flux and annual energy production (AEP), to provide the detailed information required for a larger project layout design. Ultimately, this work has shown the important role of IEC TS in tidal stream resource assessment, which can simultaneously act as a benchmark for other studies worldwide.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Quantifying the Known Unknown: Including Marine Sources of Greenhouse Gases in Climate Modeling

Researchers have recently estimated that Arctic submarine permafrost currently traps 60 billion tons of methane and contains 560 billion tons of organic carbon in seafloor sediments and soil, a giant pool of carbon with potentially large feedbacks on the climate system. Unlike terrestrial permafrost, the submarine permafrost system has remained a “known unknown” because of the difficulty in acquiring samples and measurements. Consequently, this potentially large carbon stock never yet considered in global climate models or policy discussions, represents a real wildcard in our understanding of Earth’s climate. This report summarizes our group’s effort at developing a numerical modeling framework designed to produce a first-of-its-kind estimate of Arctic methane gas releases from the marine sediments to the water column, and potentially to the atmosphere, where positive climate feedback may occur. Newly developed modeling capability supported by the Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) program at Sandia National Laboratories now gives us the ability to probabilistically map gas distribution and quantity in the seabed by using a hybrid approach of geospatial machine learning, and predictive numerical thermodynamic ensemble modeling. The novelty in this approach is its ability to produce maps of useful data in regions that are only sparsely sampled, a common challenge in the Arctic, and a major obstacle to progress in the past. By applying this model to the circum-Arctic continental shelves and integrating the flux of free gas from in situ methanogenesis and dissociating gas hydrates from the sediment column under climate forcing, we can provide the most reliable estimate of a spatially and temporally varying source term for greenhouse gas flux that can be used by global oceanographic circulation and Earth system models (such as DOE’s E3SM). The result will allow us to finally tackle the wildcard of the submarine permafrost carbon system, and better inform us about the severity of future national security threats that sustained climate change poses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Understanding and Advancing Bifacial Thin Film Solar Cells under Dual Illumination

There is a great deal of interest in increasing the energy yield from thin film solar cells by implementing bifacial operation. However, deleterious band bending and high interface recombination at the back transparent electrode can cause problems. Herein, it is investigated how bifacial thin film devices perform when illuminated through the front, back, and simultaneously through both interfaces using numerical modeling. It is shown that the downward band bending near the back interface is reduced during illumination when the carrier concentration is low. This effect is not found when the doping is relatively high, but the minority carrier distribution is still modified. Under either condition, the power generated under bifacial illumination exceeds the sum of the power generated when the illumination is solely from the back or the front. It is also shown that the back-illuminated device performance is independent of the angle at which the light enters the back of the device, which provides accommodation for scattered light. Finally, the power enhancement is calculated for bifacial devices relative to front-illuminated devices, and is shown that any significant loss in frontside power generation is difficult to overcome with back illumination under real-world albedo conditions.

CdTe↗

Tidal energy extraction modifies tidal asymmetry and transport in a shallow, well-mixed estuary

Tidal energy extraction is increasingly being studied as a potential renewable energy resource in estuaries worldwide. Although it is understood that energy extraction via tidal stream turbines can modify currents and transport within estuaries, it is not clear how the underlying nonlinear physical mechanisms dictating tidal hydrodynamics are modulated. This research investigates the influence of a hypothetical tidal stream turbine array on barotropic tidal processes in a shallow, well-mixed system: the Piscataqua River – Great Bay (PRGB) estuary, using a numerical model. The modeled turbine farm includes 180 turbines which would extract an estimated 44.7 GWh of energy, annually. The tidal hydrodynamic model for the existing condition is validated with in-situ observations of currents and water level before analyzing tidal asymmetry and transport with and without tidal turbines. Results indicate that the tidal turbine array will decrease tidal elevation and current magnitudes system-wide, but generally reduce ebb currents and transport more than flood over most of the estuary footprint, thereby diminishing tidal asymmetry. The smaller asymmetric distortion compared to the no-turbine case is attributed to reductions in the storage volume of water over the estuary’s extensive tidal flat regions between low and high waters which decreases the associated nonlinear intertidal storage mechanism up to 25%. This leads to weakened ebb dominance over estuary sections from the mouth to mid-reaches, where depths are deep enough to keep the combined nonlinear shallow water and frictional effects from asserting control over the storage mechanism. Even in upstream shallow regions where depth-dependent friction controls asymmetry in both cases, the frictional mechanism is reduced only by 10% with turbines. Some environmental considerations of this work are discussed, with focus on sediment transport, water quality, and ecology.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Hot Springs and Geysers: Exploring Historical and Modern Impacts of Geothermal Energy Production on Associated Natural Surface Systems and Standardizing Management Practices

Surface thermal features, most notably hot springs and geysers are increasingly being recognized for their importance to ecosystems, indigenous cultures, and in some cases agriculture, recreation, and tourism. Geothermal project development poses a potential risk to these natural features but current regulatory requirements for assessing and managing these risks during exploration, permitting and monitoring are somewhat inconsistent and unpredictable across different geothermal fields. This has resulted in uncertainty and increases in exploration risk for geothermal energy developers that have led to costly project delays, cancellations, or hesitation to commit. Varying regulatory requirements may also influence public perception, fostering confusion, distrust and ultimately opposition to geothermal projects, further contributing to project delays or cancellations. At a time when there is an increasing urgency for reliable baseload clean energy, geothermal is a net-zero, renewable solution that additionally provides access to more equitable and environmentally just clean power. Continued integration of geothermal energy into the national energy roadmap can be facilitated through consistent and predictable permitting, providing regulators the framework they need, developers a clear path forward, and transparency that the public deserves. This project, currently in its beginning phases, seeks to address this important issue by providing a technical basis from which to build a preliminary protocol for assessing and managing potential impacts from new or existing geothermal energy projects to surface thermal features and their associated ecosystems. Development of this preliminary protocol will be informed by (1) a literature review of well-documented case studies in the western U.S. and New Zealand to understand the range of conditions that exemplify geothermal-surface thermal systems; (2) development of generic illustrative conceptual-numerical models to quantify, understand, and predict the first-order controls (e.g., pressure and permeability) on surface flows; and (3) additional independent and scientifically rigorous evaluations of geothermal-surface thermal system case studies from the Basin and Range Province that incorporate publicly available data as well as data provided by industry through data-sharing agreements. Learning from the successes of the process used to develop the Induced Seismicity Management Protocol (ISMP), we ultimately aim to use these initial efforts as a springboard for establishing a surface thermal feature management working group that will work collaboratively to finalize the protocol as well as co-create recommended best practices for implementation. We envision that the working group will primarily be composed of representatives from regulatory entities, government agencies, Tribes, academia, national laboratories, and industry, and will include early and regular engagement with community organizations and environmental groups. This will help ensure broad acceptance and implementation of the protocol, which will facilitate a more consistent, predictable, and standardized regulatory process, and help to ensure that geothermal energy continues to provide a reliable source of clean energy, and a pathway to achieving greater energy equity in the U.S.

Best Practices↗

Review of analytical studies on seismic fluid-structure interaction of base-supported cylindrical tanks

Analytical solutions for seismic fluid-structure interaction (FSI) of tanks are used by analysts and engineers for a number of purposes, including preliminary sizing, risk assessment, and verification of numerical models. Analytical solutions for seismic FSI of tanks were first developed in the 1930s and have been extended and/or modified in the following nine decades to accommodate different seismic inputs and boundary conditions. This report reviews published analytical solutions for rigid and flexible, base-supported, cylindrical tanks subjected to unidirectional horizontal motion of a small amplitude. The studies parsed the fluid-structure (FSI) response into an impulsive and a convective component, and addressed frequencies of lateral motions of the tank (i.e., impulsive frequencies), hydrodynamic pressures, frequencies of waves (i.e., convective frequencies), wave heights, and reactions at the base. The solutions were categorized into exact and approximate solutions based on the methodologies used. Herein, FSI responses are calculated and compared for a range of tank dimensions using the analytical solutions from the different studies. The responses presented here are normalized to be unitless, and can be used for tanks with different dimensions and mechanical properties, and subjected to different input motions. A sample steel water tank is analyzed using the normalized solutions for two earthquake ground motions with different frequency contents. Ignoring tank flexibility may significantly underestimate seismic responses of the tank and its contained fluid. The approximate solutions, which have been widely used for decades, may not be sufficiently accurate in the modern era. Calculation errors in the reviewed studies are identified and corrected, and differences are quantified for the sample tank.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Numerical evaluation of photosensitive tracers as a strategy for separating surface and subsurface transient storage in streams

For this work, we numerically evaluated photosensitive tracers as a potential strategy for separating the effects of surface and hyporheic storage zones (SSZs and HSZs, respectively) on stream corridor transport. Correctly separating HSZ and SSZ effects is critical to estimating the hydro-biogeochemical function of a stream because HSZs and SSZs expose solutes to significantly different biogeochemical conditions, like sunlight exposure, microbial processes, and oxygen availability. Our numerical experiments used a multiscale river-corridor transport model implemented in the ATS code, which accommodates multiple storage zones with distinct travel time distributions and biogeochemical reactions. For parameter inferences, we used Bayesian inverse modeling. We found that breakthrough curves for photo-decaying tracers from day and night injection can delineate surface and hyporheic transient storage contributions, but only when interpreted jointly through a two-storage zone model. Numerical experiments that used only daytime injection or interpreted breakthrough curves with a single storage zone model yielded good fit to breakthrough curves, but parameter estimates were biased and controlling processes misattributed, examples of good model fits for the wrong reasons. Using those biased parameter estimates in reactive transport simulations resulted in significantly different projections of denitrification, which underscores the potential for stream function to be mischaracterized if tracer tests are interpreted through an inappropriately simplified model for transient storage. More generally, this study highlights the role of modeling in evaluating the experimental design and identifying the potential of system mischaracterization and its implications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An evaluation of size-resolved cloud microphysics scheme numerics for use with radar observations Part II: Condensation and evaporation

Accurate numerical modeling of clouds and precipitation is essential for weather forecasting and climate change research. While size-resolved (bin) cloud microphysics models predict particle size distributions without imposing shapes, results are subject to artificial size distribution broadening owing to numerical diffusion associated with various processes. Whereas Part I of this study addressed collision–coalescence, here we investigate numerical diffusion that occurs in solving condensation and evaporation. In a parcel model framework, all of the numerical schemes examined converge to one solution of condensation and evaporation as the mass grid is refined, and the advection-based schemes are recommended over the reassigning schemes. Including Eulerian vertical advection in a column limits the convergence to some extent, but that limitation occurs at a sufficiently fine mass grid, and the number of iterations in solving vertical advection should be minimized to reduce numerical diffusion. Insubstantial numerical diffusion in solving condensation can be amplified if collision–coalescence is also active, which in turn can be substantially diminished if turbulence effects on collision are incorporated. Here, large-eddy simulations of a drizzling stratocumulus field reveal that changes in moments of Doppler spectra obtained using different mass grids are consistent with those obtained from the simplified framework, and that spectral moments obtained using a mass grid designed to effectively reduce numerical diffusion are generally closer to observations. Notable differences between the simulations and observations still exist, and our results suggest a need to consider whether factors other than numerical diffusion in the fundamental process schemes employed can cause such differences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Jacobian-based model diagnostics and application to equation oriented modeling of a carbon capture system

It can be difficult to identify the specific variables or equations responsible for convergence issues in large mathematical programming models. The Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems Integrated Platform (IDAES-IP) contains a tool to identify poorly scaled constraints and variables by searching for rows and columns of the Jacobian matrix with small L2-norms. A singular value decomposition is then performed to identify degenerate sets of equations and remaining scaling issues. Here, this work presents a flowsheet developed for post-combustion carbon capture using a monoethanolamine (MEA) solvent system as a case study. This work takes the reader through the entire process of model diagnostics and reformulation, from a basic introduction to the mathematics behind these model diagnostics to the reformulations necessary to make the model numerically robust, including a significantly modified enhancement factor model.

IDAES↗

Surrogate modeling for efficiently, accurately and conservatively estimating measures of risk

We present a surrogate modeling framework for conservatively estimating measures of risk from limited realizations of an expensive physical experiment or computational simulation. Risk measures combine objective probabilities with the subjective values of a decision maker to quantify anticipated outcomes. Given a set of samples, we construct a surrogate model that produces estimates of risk measures that are always greater than their empirical approximations obtained from the training data. These surrogate models limit over-confidence in reliability and safety assessments and produce estimates of risk measures that converge much faster to the true value than purely sample-based estimates. We first detail the construction of conservative surrogate models that can be tailored to a stakeholder’s risk preferences and then present an approach, based on stochastic orders, for constructing surrogate models that are conservative with respect to families of risk measures. Our surrogate models include biases that permit them to conservatively estimate the target risk measures. We provide theoretical results that show that these biases decay at the same rate as the L 2 error in the surrogate model. Numerical demonstrations confirm that risk-adapted surrogate models do indeed overestimate the target risk measures while converging at the expected rate.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Nonlocal elastic metasurfaces: Enabling broadband wave control via intentional nonlocality

While elastic metasurfaces offer a remarkable and very effective approach to the subwavelength control of stress waves, their use in practical applications is severely hindered by intrinsically narrow band performance. In applications to electromagnetic and photonic metamaterials, some success in extending the operating dynamic range was obtained by using nonlocality. However, while electronic properties in natural materials can show significant nonlocal effects, even at the macroscales, in mechanics, nonlocality is a higher-order effect that becomes appreciable only at the microscales. This study introduces the concept of intentional nonlocality as a fundamental mechanism to design passive elastic metasurfaces capable of an exceptionally broadband operating range. The nonlocal behavior is achieved by exploiting nonlocal forces, conceptually akin to long-range interactions in nonlocal material microstructures, between subsets of resonant unit cells forming the metasurface. These long-range forces are obtained via carefully crafted flexible elements, whose specific geometry and local dynamics are designed to create remarkably complex transfer functions between multiple units. The resulting nonlocal coupling forces enable achieving phase-gradient profiles that are functions of the wavenumber of the incident wave. The identification of relevant design parameters and the assessment of their impact on performance are explored via a combination of semianalytical and numerical models. The nonlocal metasurface concept is tested, both numerically and experimentally, by embedding a total-internal-reflection design in a thin-plate waveguide. Results confirm the feasibility of the intentionally nonlocal design concept and its ability to achieve a fully passive and broadband wave control.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Estimation of Surface Sensible Heat Flux due to Precipitation over CONUS and Its Impact on Urban Extreme Precipitation Modeling

The surface sensible heat flux induced by precipitation (Q P ) is a consequence of the temperature difference between the surface and the rain droplets. Despite its seemingly negligible nature, Q P is frequently omitted from both meteorological and climatological models. Nevertheless, it is important to acknowledge the numerous occasions in which the instantaneous values of Q P can be significant, particularly during extreme precipitation events. This study undertakes a comprehensive assessment of Q P across the contiguous United States (CONUS) utilizing high-resolution reanalysis, observational data, and numerical modeling to examine the influence of Q P on precipitation and the surface energy budget. The findings indicate that the spatial distribution of Q P climatology is analogous to that of precipitation, with magnitudes ranging from 2 to 3 W m -2 predominantly over the Midwest and Southeast regions. A seasonal analysis of QP reveals that the highest values occurring during the June–August (JJA) period, averaging 3.18 W m -2 . Peak Q P values of approximately 4 W m -2 are observed during JJA over the Great Plains region. We hypothesize that the Q P during an extreme precipitation event would be nonnegligible and have a significant impact on the local weather. To test this conjecture, we perform high-resolution simulations with and without Q P during an extreme precipitation event over the Chicago Metropolitan Area (CMA). The results show that the Q P may be a dominant factor compared to other components of surface heat flux during the zenith of precipitation hours. Also, Q P has the potential to not only diminish precipitation but also alter and reconfigure the remaining surface energy budget components.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Machine-Learning-Assisted Hybrid Earth System Modelling

We propose a novel hybrid modeling approach that combines a physics-based, numerical model of the Earth system with a machine learning model. We also envision to integrate the hybrid model training with a data assimilation cycle, so that new observations update both the state estimate used as initial conditions and the machine learning model parameters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Tanana River Test Site Model Verification Using the Marine and Hydrokinetic Toolkit (MHKiT)

The marine energy (ME) industry historically lacked a standardized data processing toolkit for common tasks such as data ingestion, quality control, and visualization. The marine and hydrokinetic toolkit (MHKiT) solved this issue by providing a public software deployment (open-source and free) toolkit for the ME industry to store and maintain commonly used functionality for wave, tidal, and river energy. This paper demonstrates an initial model verification study in MHKiT. Using Delft3D, a numerical model of the Tanana River Test Site (TRTS) at Nenana, Alaska was created. Field data from the site was collected using an Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) at the proposed Current Energy Converter (CEC) locations. MHKiT is used to process model simulations from Delft3D and compare them to the transect data from the ADCP measurements at TRTS. The ability to use a single tool to process simulation and field data demonstrates the ease at which the ME industry can obtain results and collaborate across specialties, reducing errors and increasing efficiency.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Modeling the U.S. Western Electric Interconnection to Understand the Consequences of Hydrometeorological Extremes and Options for Risk Mitigation

Electricity grid operators around the world face a dual challenge; withstanding increasingly severe weather and the longer term impacts of climate change, while simultaneously decarbonizing. Extreme weather events such as heat waves and droughts are rising in both severity and frequency, which is threatening the reliability of electricity grids through increased demand, generation capacity losses, and equipment failures. Consequently, incorporating hydrometeorological stressors into computational power systems analysis is becoming an even more critical tool in long term planning and short term operations. However, there is a general lack of open-source customizable grid simulation software capable of exhaustively stress testing the grid under hydrometeorological uncertainty, and/or examining potential risk mitigation pathways. A related, persistent challenge for power system modelers is striking an appropriate balance between model fidelity (e.g. spatial scale and time resolution) and computational tractability (wall clock run-time). In this study, we are proposing a solution to this problem with open-source software that allows users to seamlessly customize the scale and track the accuracy of grid operations models. Our approach allows users to search over numerous model parameters (network topology, mathematical formulation, economic hurdle rates, and transmission line scaling) to identify model instantiations that accommodate experimental design. Further, we use this approach to demonstrate the importance of including extreme weather events in model validation and model selection. Focusing on the occurrence of heatwaves and droughts in the U.S. Western Interconnection, we examine role of extreme events in balancing tradeoffs between model fidelity and run-time at the model design stage.

Economics↗

Reducing impacts of artificial ponding in modeling salt marshes using a conductivity-formulated subgrid model

The landforms of salt marsh systems are rather complex, with meandering channel networks cutting through low-lying, extensive marsh platforms. Some small-scale topographic details are critical to flooding and draining processes but cannot be reflected in the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) due to limited measurement resolution and vegetation bias. Numerical models need a grid with high enough resolution to capture the small-scale connectivity to correctly model the small-scale flow processes, making the model computationally unaffordable. Here, in this study, we derived a subgrid model, which couples two flow components, one is the regular subgrid model for simulating the subgrid-resolved flows, and the other is a conductivity-formulated porous flow model for modeling small-scale gut flows unresolved at the subgrid level. The model validation was performed using an idealized case with a narrow slot that was unresolved in the coupled flow model. Model results were compared with a slot-resolved regular subgrid model where only surface flows are solved and suggested that, with a proper model parameterization, the coupled flow model is capable of reproducing flooding and draining processes similar to the slot-resolved subgrid model of surface flow. The model was applied to simulating flooding and draining processes in a meso-tidal salt marsh. The model results demonstrate that the coupled subgrid model can be used to reduce the impacts of artificial ponding that usually occur in numerical simulations of salt marshes with numerous narrow gullies and creeks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗