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At least 415 records · Page 23

Catalytic Resonance Theory: Forecasting the Flow of Programmable Catalytic Loops

Chemical transformations on catalyst surfaces occur through series and parallel reaction pathways. These complex networks and their behavior can be most simply evaluated through a three-species surface reaction loop (A* to B* to C* to A*) that is internal to the overall chemical reaction. Application of an oscillating dynamic catalyst to this reactive loop has been shown to exhibit one of three types of behavior: (1) a positive net flux of molecules about the loop in the clockwise direction, (2) a negative net flux of molecules about the loop in the counterclockwise direction, or (3) negligible flux of molecules about the loop at the limit cycle of reaction. Three-species surface loops were simulated with microkinetic modeling to assess the reaction loop behavior resulting from a catalytic surface oscillating between two or more catalyst surface energy states. Selected input parameters for the simulations spanned an 11-dimensional parameter space using 127 688 different parameter combinations. Their converged limit cycle solutions were analyzed for their loop turnover frequencies, the majority of which were found to be approximately zero. Classification and regression machine learning models were trained to predict the sign and magnitude of the loop turnover frequency and successfully performed above accessible baselines. Notably, the classification models exhibited a baseline weighted F1 score of 0.49, whereas trained models achieved weighted F1 scores of 0.94 and 0.96 when trained on the parameters used to define the simulations and derived rate constants, respectively. The trained models successfully predicted catalytic loop behavior, and interpretation of these models revealed all input parameters to be important for the prediction and performance of each model.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Detecting Masquerade Attacks in Controller Area Networks Using Graph Machine Learning

Modern vehicles rely on a myriad of electronic control units (ECUs) interconnected via controller area networks (CANs) for critical operations. Despite their ubiquitous use and reliability, CANs are susceptible to sophisticated cyberattacks, particularly masquerade attacks, which inject false data that mimic legitimate messages at the expected frequency. These attacks pose severe risks such as unintended acceleration, brake deactivation, and rogue steering. Traditional intrusion detection systems (IDS) often struggle to detect these subtle intrusions due to their seamless integration into normal traffic. This paper introduces a novel framework for detecting masquerade attacks in the CAN bus using graph machine learning (ML). We hypothesize that the integration of shallow graph embeddings with time series features derived from CAN frames enhances the detection of masquerade attacks. We show that by representing CAN bus frames as message sequence graphs (MSGs) and enriching each node with contextual statistical attributes from time series, we can enhance detection capabilities across various attack patterns compared to using graph-based features only. Our method ensures a comprehensive and dynamic analysis of CAN frame interactions, improving robustness and efficiency. Extensive experiments on the ROAD dataset validate the effectiveness of our approach, demonstrating statistically significant improvements in the detection rates of masquerade attacks compared to a baseline that uses graph-based features only as confirmed by Mann-Whitney U and Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests (p < 0.05) .

Marfo, William [Univ. of Texas, El Paso, TX (Unite↗

Group-equivariant autoencoder for identifying spontaneously broken symmetries

We introduce the group-equivariant autoencoder (GE autoencoder), a deep neural network (DNN) method that locates phase boundaries by determining which symmetries of the Hamiltonian have spontaneously broken at each temperature. We use group theory to deduce which symmetries of the system remain intact in all phases, and then use this information to constrain the parameters of the GE autoencoder such that the encoder learns an order parameter invariant to these “never-broken” symmetries. This procedure produces a dramatic reduction in the number of free parameters such that the GE-autoencoder size is independent of the system size. We include symmetry regularization terms in the loss function of the GE autoencoder so that the learned order parameter is also equivariant to the remaining symmetries of the system. By examining the group representation by which the learned order parameter transforms, we are then able to extract information about the associated spontaneous symmetry breaking. We test the GE autoencoder on the 2D classical ferromagnetic and antiferromagnetic Ising models, finding that the GE autoencoder (1) accurately determines which symmetries have spontaneously broken at each temperature; (2) estimates the critical temperature in the thermodynamic limit with greater accuracy, robustness, and time efficiency than a symmetry-agnostic baseline autoencoder; and (3) detects the presence of an external symmetry-breaking magnetic field with greater sensitivity than the baseline method. Lastly, we describe various key implementation details, including a quadratic-programming-based method for extracting the critical temperature estimate from trained autoencoders and calculations of the DNN initialization and learning rate settings required for fair model comparisons.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Sensitivity Analysis of Drivers Water Shortage in the Los Angeles Region During Drought

The code and detailed step-by-step instructions for generating the model output data, processing results, and analysis and plotting are provided at https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/Ferencz_et_al_2026_ER_Water. The PyArtes model is a python adaptation of the Artes model. PyArtes uses many of the same input data and optimization model architecture as Artes. Documentation for the PyArtes model is provided in the Supplement to the paper. The primary data product are simulated monthly water shortages for indoor and outdoor demand under a large ensemble of drought scenarios (>13,000). The droughts are hypothetical and are not based on historical time series data of supply sources - though historical data did help inform ranges explored for supply parameters. Demands are informed by recent 2017-2021 water supply data. Demands used for the model can be accessed at https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/Ferencz_et_al_2026_ER_Water. Simulations resolve demand for over 90 water providers in the study region. The results report 36 months of water shortage data for each indoor and outdoor demand node. The study also developed a multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network trained on a subset of the simulated shortage ensemble to emulate worst annual water shortage for a given set of parameter multipliers -- provided the parameter values fall within the ranges sampled in the ensemble. Emulated water shortages for synthetic ensembles are in the MLP-generated shortages folder. The MLP model was used to generate larger ensembles to support Sobol analysis that would have been extremely computationally expensive to simulate. Datasets provided in this repository*: Simulated shortages. These results are used for the analysis for Figures 5, 8, and 9 in the paper, and also to train the MLP emulator. .zip file containing outputs for the 13,312 scenario ensemble. Separate .csv files for indoor and outdoor shortage for each scenario. Rows = demand ids (~100), Columns = months (36) Units = acre-feet/month of shortage (shortage = monthly demand - supply). 1 acft = 1233.48 m^3 .csv files of aggregated shortages derived from the 13,312 ensemble Rows = scenarios (13,312), Columns = demand ids (~100) Units = acre-feet/year (either worst annual shortage or total shortage over the 3-year drought) .csv file of the parameter multipliers scenarios for the ensemble .csv file of the parameter ranges and baseline values the multipliers were applied to MLP-generated shortages. These results are used for Figures 4, 6, and 7 in the paper. mwd higher folder: scenario ensembles, emulated worst year total shortages (acft), and Sobol results Emulated shortages. Rows = scenarios, columns = demand ids, units acft Sobol results. Rows = demand ids, columns Sobol (S1, ST, or 95% confidence interval) value for each parameter mwd lower folder: scenario ensembles, emulated worst year total shortages (acft), and Sobol results same organization as mwd higher MLP performance: performance metrics (R^2, RMSE, BIAS, MAPE) for the testing subset (20% or 2,662 scenarios) and simulated vs emulated worst year shortage (acre-feet/year) for every demand node, MWD wholesale regions, and the entire study region (LAC). Supporting data for figures. Figure plotting scripts in the associated GitHub repo. These files support analysis and visualization. Geospatial Data used for plotting simulated water shortages and Sobol results. Dictionary of full names for demand nodes in the model and estimates of water supply by source type informed by Artes input files and California Urban Water Management Planning data: https://water.ca.gov/Programs/Water-Use-And-Efficiency/Urban-Water-Use-Efficiency/Urban-Water-Management-Plans *Readme files provided for each folder.

drought↗

Non-destructive structural characterization of graphite components using mechanical resonance and deep learning

As compared to conventional nuclear reactors, microreactors have the potential to significantly reduce construction timelines and capital costs, decreasing the barriers for advanced nuclear reactor technologies. However, the lower power output of these microreactors (typically < 20 MWe) creates challenging economics if operation and maintenance costs cannot be sufficiently reduced. The compact size of these designs presents an opportunity for comprehensive in-situ structural health monitoring to provide real-time feedback in order to reduce operational costs associated with maintenance and downtime. Many microreactor concepts use graphite for both in-core neutron moderation and as a structural material, which has typically required some form of periodic and laborious inspection. This report provides a description and assessment of recent work with graphite to couple acoustic-based experimental measurements and characterization with machine learning models to mature structural health monitoring capabilities and generate benefits for the nuclear microreactor industry. With resilient embedded sensors in development in other programs funded by the US Department of Energy’s Office of Nuclear Energy and elsewhere, the work described herein builds upon previously funded efforts to mature non-destructive testing technology that relates measured vibrational signatures to structural changes, using a combination of new experimental measurements and machine learning processing. Building on past successful demonstrations of predictive workflows to identify structural changes in a hexagonal stainless steel test article with excellent acoustic propagation, we first performed baseline characterization on graphite samples with canonical geometries to ensure compatibility and confidence in the applied techniques for a material with distinctly different mechanical properties. In contrast to efforts in previous years, we worked exclusively with unidirectional vibration data that is more comparable to those expected from the existing embedded sensor technologies which are suitable for deployment in a reactor setting. Established acoustic and modern machine-learning-based characterization approaches were applied to the resulting datasets from these simple geometries. Both approaches were found to be highly capable of detecting even small geometric irregularities amongst nominally identical samples. As such, we then moved to testing these approaches for detection of artificial local stress perturbations introduced into a more complex geometry: a hexagonal block with drilled holes. A main outcome of this work is that a generalizable ML workflow can be used to detect and predict the characteristics of small artificial anomalies in a graphite component with a relevant geometry. While this work was performed using surficial vibration data, we expect the approach to be flexible and viable for other monitoring scenarios, such as those with different arrangements or types of sensor arrays. As compared to previously funded efforts, an existing ML workflow based on neural networks was enhanced through the addition of recently developed Fourier neural operators. As applied to previously collected and new vibration datasets, prediction accuracies of anomaly characterizations were greatly improved with minimal added computational cost. As trained on small durations of vibration data (tens of seconds) collected over a realistic number of locations, the model was able to reliably determine the presence of a subtle stress anomaly and begin to provide location estimates. Such an approach is likely to be viable for more relevant reactor damage scenarios for graphite components, such as progressive crack growth or creep.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

AGFormer: Adaptive Spatiotemporal graph informed transformer for multi-reservoir inflow forecasting

Accurate reservoir inflow forecasting is crucial for effective water resource management, yet most machine learning models focus on single-reservoir prediction and overlook spatial dependencies among hydrologically connected reservoirs. Here, we propose AGFormer (Adaptive Graph-Informed Transformer), an end-to-end framework that integrates adaptive graph learning with temporal sequence modeling for multi-reservoir inflow forecasting. A shared encoder and graph attention mechanism generate reservoir-specific embeddings, which are then processed by the Transformer-based encoder–decoder for multi-step inflow forecasting. We also introduce a pretraining paradigm to learn robust temporal embeddings from misaligned historical records. Evaluated on 30 reservoirs in the Upper Colorado River Basin, AGFormer achieves superior seven-day-ahead forecasts, with NSE > 0.75 for 20 reservoirs—outperforming Encoder–Decoder LSTM, GCN+LSTM, and Transformer baselines. Adaptive graph learning captures dynamic inter-reservoir dependencies, and feature attribution aligns with snowmelt-driven hydrology. Incorporating forecasted meteorological inputs further enhances accuracy, demonstrating AGFormer’s potential to support reservoir management under dynamic hydrological conditions.

Adaptive graph learning↗

Using AI for Wave-front Estimation with the Rubin Observatory Active Optics System

Abstract The Vera C. Rubin Observatory will, over a period of 10 yr, repeatedly survey the southern sky. To ensure that images generated by Rubin meet the quality requirements for precision science, the observatory will use an active-optics system (AOS) to correct for alignment and mirror surface perturbations introduced by gravity and temperature gradients in the optical system. To accomplish this, Rubin will use out-of-focus images from sensors located at the edge of the focal plane to learn and correct for perturbations to the wave front. We have designed and integrated a deep-learning (DL) model for wave-front estimation into the AOS pipeline. In this paper, we compare the performance of this DL approach to Rubin’s baseline algorithm when applied to images from two different simulations of the Rubin optical system. We show the DL approach is faster and more accurate, achieving the atmospheric error floor both for high-quality images and low-quality images with heavy blending and vignetting. Compared to the baseline algorithm, the DL model is 40× faster, the median error 2× better under ideal conditions, 5× better in the presence of vignetting by the Rubin camera, and 14× better in the presence of blending in crowded fields. In addition, the DL model surpasses the required optical quality in simulations of the AOS closed loop. This system promises to increase the survey area useful for precision science by up to 8%. We discuss how this system might be deployed when commissioning and operating Rubin.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Boundary-Aware Adversarial Learning Domain Adaption and Active Learning for Cross-Sensor Building Extraction

The use of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) for building extraction from remote sensing images has been widely studied and many public datasets have been made available for accelerating development of these CNN models. Yet adapting pretrained models at scale in real-world scenarios remains a challenging task. The main barrier is that certain new labels are still needed to compensate for domain shifting between the labeled data and new images that potentially cover new geographic locations or that are from a different sensor. In this article, we propose to add informatively labeled samples from a new image pool under the paradigm of active learning. To select the most useful samples based on model uncertainty, we first tackle the problem of uncalibrated uncertainty estimation due to distribution shifting by adapting feature extractors with boundary-based adversarial learning. Calibrated uncertainty is used as the query criterion in the active learning process, where the most uncertain samples are selected for annotation and included for model retraining. The proposed workflow was tested with three data pairs in which each workflow represents a scenario often encountered in real-world applications, including adapting pretrained models to new images collected with different sensors or to new geographic areas where appearances and types of buildings are very different. Compared to several baselines, including random sampling, temperature scaling (a well-known uncertainty calibration technique), different query strategies, and active domain adaptation methods, the proposed workflow shows that strategically querying a smaller set of samples for labeling achieves comparable or better building extraction performance. The proposed method reduces the number of labeled samples required to achieve sufficient model accuracy, thus significantly reducing hundreds of person-hours for labeled data creation. In addition, we include a few considerations when deploying this workflow in a GPU cluster that can be easily adapted to achieve operational building extraction model retraining.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Ibis Networks/WattIQ (IN2 Final Report)

Ibis Networks is a full-stack cleantech company that provides plug-level energy monitoring and control to solve energy and asset management problems for the enterprise. During DATES – DATES, an NREL research team worked with the Ibis team to validate their product, the InteliSocket. The Ibis InteliSocket is a pass-through plug-load energy monitor and controller that is designed to reduce energy wasted by common 120 V plug-in devices in commercial office buildings, such as computer peripherals, conference room AV equipment, and break-room appliances. The system can shut off supply power to these end uses via remote control, manual switches, pre-set schedules, or automated control algorithms. The scope of this IN2 project was the development and refinement of “smart” learning behavior algorithms (LBAs), which could help installation processes and dramatically expand the sockets’ capabilities and energy-saving potential by suggesting suitable control schedules that are based on monitored use patterns. While Ibis has the analytical and software expertise for algorithm development, the lack of test data, both in a controlled laboratory setting and in real-life deployment scenarios, represented a key barrier toward commercialization of the product. Assistance through the IN2 program provided an opportunity to conduct the needed “trial and error” algorithm development. The project included baseline field-data collection, laboratory testing, and field validation components, all of which were conducted at the NREL campus between April 2017 and July 2019.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Single-shot femtosecond laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy in low-density gases

Single-shot fs laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) has been used to interrogate low-density gases of H 2 ⁠, CH 4 ⁠, CO 2 ⁠, and H 2 O ranging from 0.5 × 10 15 to 9.1 × 10 15 cm −3 (15–275 mTorr). Strong spectral signatures were observed above the noise baseline for each test gas at all densities considered. Unique molecular signatures were observed for both CH 4 and CO 2 along with atomic features for each gas. The LIBS intensity response with respect to density was determined for each species using Voigt lineshape fitting or numerical integration. Finally, the collection and analysis of LIBS spectra of composite mixtures of CH 4 –CO 2 and CH 4 –H 2 demonstrates that the extraction of individual densities from gas mixtures is feasible at low densities.

Artificial neural networks↗

Evaluation of Hybrid FPOG Applications in Regulated and Deregulated Markets Using HERON

Recent changes in the U.S. energy market, such as low natural gas prices and increased electricity production for variable renewable energy (VRE) sources, have led to an economic crisis for existing light-water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPP). Many owners and operators of LWRs have elected to decommission these plants rather than continue using them as consistent sources of clean baseload power. This has led to exploration of various possibilities to increase the economic viability of these units, including market restructuring to monetize benefits LWRs already provide to the grid through ancillary markets, load following and economic dispatch, and possible integration of secondary systems directly to the NPP for production of additional products through technologies such as hydrogen electrolysis or water desalination. Previous studies have considered the technologies associated with these Integrated Energy Systems (IES) activities, and the analysis of markets for these secondary products. To analyze the economic viability of various system configurations including IES, especially given the uncertainty surrounding load demand, electricity prices, and the availability of VRE resources, the stochastic technoeconomic analysis package HERON (Heuristic Energy Resource Optimization Network) was released earlier this year as an extension of the risk analysis framework RAVEN (Risk Analysis Virtual Environment). HERON focuses foremost on making the complex uncertainty quantification analysis tools approachable for energy systems analysts, also providing general dispatch optimization algorithms for those workflows. HERON continues to be improved and tested as a significant part of the IES viability analyses performed in this work. HERON is not a capacity expansion model. To consider market and grid energy system development in a variety of scenarios, HERON is best used in coupling with modelling tools such as US-REGEN, which sacrifice some of the uncertainty analysis and resolution of HERON's modelling for the ability to efficiently predict the change in the grid energy system's profile due to economic drivers over decades. HERON can then use this information to explore the economic viability of introducing changes to the predicted outcomes, such as the introduction of an IES. In this work, experts at EPRI using US-REGEN provide six projection scenarios for use in HERON stochastic technoeconomic analysis (STEA) in considering the options available for increasing LWR economic viability through introduction of a hydrogen-centric IES using a high-temperature steam electrolysis plant (HTSE), hydrogen storage, and a constant-rate contracted hydrogen consumer. The results obtained are differential in nature; they do not report expected profits for any configuration, but rather report on the possible increase in the NPV of a configuration with respect to a baseline no-IES configuration. Due to the uncertainty captured in the variable net load of the systems, there is likewise uncertainty in the mean values reported. We consider this viability both in terms of a regulated market, where the energy producers and IES are owned and operated by single entity, as well as a deregulated market, where the IES chooses its bid for electricity generation and is then dispatched by the grid system operator. Results indicate that for deregulated markets, the inclusion of the IES is often statistically beneficial. This is especially true in policies that are not favorable towards nuclear, as nuclear is less often dispatched and is forced to deal with frequent idle capacity. In the nominal case as well as the case of carbon tax policies, inclusion of the IES clearly benefited the economic performance of the NPP. In the regulated case, however, there was a trend towards minimizing the IES, likely due to the optimal sizing performed by US-REGEN of the NPP within the system as well as the lack of penalty for idle capacity at the NPP in the regulated market analyses.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Bridging the Gap Between LLMs and LNS with Dynamic Data Format and Architecture Codesign

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have achieved tremendous success in the past few years. However, their training and inference demand exceptional computational and memory resources. Quantization has been shown as an effective approach to mitigate the cost, with the mainstream data types reduced from FP32 to FP16/BF16 and recently FP8 in the latest NVIDIA H100 GPUs. With increasingly aggressive quantization, however, the conventional floating-point formats suffer from limited precision in representing numbers around zero. Recently, NVIDIA demonstrated the potential of using a Logarithmic Number System (LNS) for the next generation of tensor cores. While LNS mitigates the hurdles in representing small numbers, in this work we observed a mismatch between LNS and the emerging Large Language Models (LLM), where LLM exhibits significant outliers when directly adopting the LNS format. In this paper, we present a data-format/architecture codesign to bright this gap. On the format side, we propose a dynamic LNS format to flexibly represent outliers at a higher precision, by exploiting asymmetry in the LNS representation and identifying outliers through a per-vector basis. On the architecture side, for demonstration, we realize the dynamic LNS format in a systolic array, which can handle the irregularity of the outliers at runtime. We implement our approach on an Alveo U280 FPGA as a prototype. Experimental results show that our design can effectively handle the outliers and resolve the mismatch between LNS and LLM, contributing to an accuracy improvement of 15.4% and 16% over the floating-point and the original LNS baselines, using four state-of-the-art LLM models. Our observation and design lay a solid foundation for the large-scale adoption of the LNS format in the next-generation deep learning hardware.

Haghi, Pouya↗

Modifications to Solar Titan-130 Combustion Systems for Efficient, High Turndown Operation

The project team of Southwest Research Institute® (SwRI®), Solar Turbines Incorporated (Solar), the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), the University of California, Irvine (UCI), and the Georgia Institute of Technology (Georgia Tech) investigated methods to allow higher efficiency part-load operation of a Solar Titan 130 gas turbine. The objective was to develop a low-emission combustion system capable of sustaining combustion and avoiding lean blowout during high turndown operation, which would allow the gas turbine to operate as efficiently as possible at part load. Currently, electric utility markets are beginning to experience substantial increases in renewable energy generation. Some of these renewable energy sources have highly variable output in an uncontrolled manner. In order to maintain grid stability, there is a need for power plants to ramp up power to the grid rapidly to make up for drops in renewable generation. This is often termed spinning reserve, but the size of this reserve may need to increase as renewable penetration into the electric utility market increases. Small combined heat and power (CHP) power plants provide a promising option for meeting this spinning reserve requirement. In order to operate in spinning reserve while still meeting the heat requirements for the CHP, the gas turbine needs to operate efficiently at very low loads. Efficient, high turndown operations in this engine are limited by the lean flammability limit of the premixed combustion system. This project sought enhance the lean operability range of the Titan 130 combustor. First, the project team participated in a brainstorming activity and ultimately selected two concepts to explore: fuel augmentation with hydrogen (H2) to improve the stability at lean operating conditions and modifications to the fuel nozzle to improve the emissions performance at lean operating conditions. Analytical and laboratory investigations were accomplished by UCI to investigate the efficacy of H2 addition at improving lean blow out (LBO) limits and the resulting emissions. These investigations used a variety of chemical reactor network (CRN) and CFD models, validated against laboratory data, to model the impact of H 2 and inform the experimental efforts accomplished by SwRI and Solar. Ultimately, both the CRN and CFD models yielded generally good agreement with the experimental data below a particular temperature threshold. Atmospheric tests of a full-scale T130 annular combustor were performed at SwRI facilities in San Antonio, Texas, to investigate the use of H 2 addition. For these tests, the T130 combustion system remained largely unchanged; minor modifications were performed to the fuel ducting to allow for the safe use of H 2 . The test ultimately demonstrated that the addition of H 2 to the fuel mixture significantly increased the AFR ratio at which the combustor could operate. This improvement to the LBO limit should allow for less use of compressor bleed and less throttling needed by the inlet guide vanes (IGV). This in turn could result in more efficient operation of the gas turbine at lower load points. The second modification explored in this work was a direct modification to the T130 injector. The project team hypothesized that modifications to the pilot of the T130 injector could provide lower emissions at high turn-down operations. These modifications were manufactured and explored by the team at Solar. High pressure rig tests, originally slated to occur at SwRI, were ultimately accomplished by Solar to maintain overall project budget and mitigate cost growth attributable to supply chain issues and inflation. The pressurized rig tests ultimately showed that the SwRI Project No. 18.24153 - DE-EE0008415 Page 2 Final Technical Report January 24, 2024 modifications did not significantly alter the performance of the combustion system at the high turn-down conditions; both the modified injectors and the baseline configuration exhibited elevated emissions comparted to the full-load operating condition. A final set of studies performed by EPRI investigated the benefit-cost of flexible CHP as well as a grid interconnection study for the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) grid. These studies considered: traditional CHP with no spinning reserve available for on-demand grid support, 50% flexible CHP where 50% of the machine’s capacity is consumed by on-site baseload operations while providing an additional 50% capacity for on-demand grid support, and 70% flexible CHP where 70% of capacity is consumed on-site by baseload operations and 30% is available for on-demand grid support. In all cases, the analyses showed a benefit-to-cost ratio greater than unity implying a positive net present value for all configurations. However, the traditional CHP showed the most economic benefit. These results are sensitive to several factors, many of which are not fully known and may vary over time. Thus site owners must be convinced that taking up the increased costs and risks from flexible CHP would be worth implementing. As the grid in California and across the country transition to incorporate larger renewable energy generation, flexible CHP can provide much needed operating reserves and dispatchability. Alternative fuel options, such as hydrogen blending and biofuels, may also lower carbon intensities of CHP. Flexible CHP should be examined in the evolving market to understand innovative business models, changes market rules and services, and new technologies.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Electrical and Thermal Load Impacts of Three District Heating and Cooling Designs for an Existing Community in Washington, DC

District energy systems that provide building heating and cooling are a promising option to provide low-cost, energy efficient heating and cooling solutions for communities. As some buildings move to electrified heating designs, there may be significant increases in electric grid demand, particularly in the winter. District energy systems may be able to help reduce these high electrical demands on the electric grid, while also providing decreased overall energy consumption with an increased flexibility in electrical energy usage. To evaluate and compare district options for district-based heating and cooling, an existing neighborhood of Washington, DC consisting of 35 existing buildings was selected as a case study. This study models and compares a fourth generation (4G) district heating and cooling systems that provide hot and chilled water from a central plant directly to each prosumer and a fifth generation (5G) district heating and cooling systems that provide near-ambient water via geothermal boreholes to interface with an energy transfer station with a heat pump at each prosumer. These district systems are compared against a baseline of the non-connected buildings with their self-contained and current HVAC systems. The neighborhood was selected as a good candidate for a district system for its diversity of loads (mix of different commercial and property types) and the availability of building characteristics. URBANopt District Energy Systems (DES) was used to model the buildings and create initial Modelica models for the district systems. Finally, the DES models were tuned and simulated in Dymola, and the outputs were post-processed for verification and to calculate the electrical and thermal grid impact metrics. This is the first documentation of this workflow and its complete analysis. The three designed systems are compared via their grid metrics including: total energy consumption, electrical demand peak loads, daily peak-to-valley ratios, and system ramping. A detailed discussion is provided about how each system impacts and interacts with the electric grid.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

COGIHTO: Comprehensive Geothermal Integrated HVAC Retrofits in Disadvantaged Communities

Geothermal heating and cooling (GHC) systems offer one of the most efficient approaches to provide space conditioning and water heating in buildings. Due to the relatively stable temperature of the ground year-round, these systems can provide an efficient solution to decarbonize heating systems. Yet this technology has faced limited market adoption due to its high first cost. This project seeks to address this barrier by designing a community GHC system at a public housing development in New York, taking advantage of load diversity (in terms of the timing and amount of heating / cooling used per person) that a larger community offers to reduce the size and thus first cost of a GHC system. Project success would result in societal benefit from reduced energy and fossil fuel use, reduced local emissions, and improved comfort, which would positively impact the health and well-being this community. This report presents the findings from Phase 1 project supported by the Department of Energy’s Geothermal Technologies Office and includes the technical design of a GHC at a public housing development in New York. To support the success of a potential deployment of a GHC system, the team conducted community engagement and prepared an assessment of the local workforce needs. The project team, led by EPRI, considered a subset of NYCHA housing developments that were previously identified by NYCHA as suitable for GHC retrofits. This report presents the site selection criteria the team developed and the overall score assigned to each of the eight developments considered. One site was selected for focus of the technical design: Stapleton Houses in Staten Island, a mid-size development with roughly 700 apartments across 6 buildings. The site has an existing hot water hydronic loop served by natural gas boilers for space heating and water heating. The technical design partner assessed baseline energy consumption at the site and established thermal models of the apartment buildings to assist in the design. The team considered several GHC system configurations and selected a hybrid geothermal design fed from water-source heat pumps with auxiliary gas boilers in a central plant. This design best leveraged the existing site configuration and minimized costs due to additional electrical infrastructure upgrades. The report also details the feedback received from community engagement efforts and the findings from the workforce needs assessment and workforce transition plan. Members of the site maintenance staff and the resident advisory council were interviewed for their input and feedback about both the site’s existing heating/cooling infrastructure and how a construction project would impact resident life. This feedback was taken into consideration when completing the geothermal system design. Research was conducted into existing workforce development opportunities available to NYCHA residents. A workforce development plan was established using information from NYCHA’s resident economic empowerment and sustainability group, along with training material and curriculum from the International Ground Source Heat Pump Association (IGSHPA).

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

The X-shaped Radio Galaxy J0725+5835 is Associated with an AGN Pair

X-shaped radio galaxies (XRGs) are those that exhibit two pairs of unaligned radio lobes (main radio lobes and wings). One of the promising models for the peculiar morphology is jet reorientation. To clarify this, we conducted a 5 GHz observation with the European VLBI Network (EVN) of XRG J0725+5835, which resembles the archetypal binary active galactic nuclei (AGNs) 0402+379 in radio morphology, but it is larger in angular size. In our observation, two milliarcsecond-scale radio components with nonthermal radio emission are detected. Each of them coincides with an optical counterpart with similar photometric redshift and (optical and infrared) magnitude, corresponding to dual active nuclei. Furthermore, with the improved Very Large Array (VLA) images, we find a bridge between the two radio cores and a jet bending in the region surrounding the companion galaxy. This further supports the interplay between the main and companion galaxies. In addition, we also report the discovery of an arcsecond-scale jet in the companion. Given the projected separation of ~100 kpc between the main and companion galaxies, XRG J0725+5835 is likely associated with a dual jetted-AGN system. In both EVN and VLA observations, we find signatures that the jet is changing its direction, which is likely responsible for the X-shaped morphology. For the origin of jet reorientation, several scenarios are discussed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Pore-Scale Transport Effects in Electrochemical CO 2 Reduction on Gold via Coupled Microkinetic-Transport Modeling

A pore-resolved modeling framework is developed to quantify how pore-scale transport affects the intrinsic microkinetics of CO 2 -to-CO on Au. A DFT-informed microkinetic model is coupled self-consistently to a Generalized-Modified Poisson–Nernst–Planck (GMPNP) transport description in a single, electrolyte-filled cylindrical pore, allowing local concentrations and potential to feed back into site-specific reaction rates. FIB-SEM is used to determine pore sizes within realistic electrode materials. Across pore diameters, d p = 10–6000 nm, the surface-averaged CO 2 reduction rate is systematically reduced relative to the ideal microkinetic baseline where mass transport is not accounted for; the effectiveness factor 𝜂 𝑠,CO 2 , which quantifies this ratio, decreases rapidly at more negative potentials and is about 1% near −1.0 V vs SHE due to reactant depletion. Spatial maps reveal pore-bulk alkalization that emerges at higher cathodic bias, with a small, near-wall pH dip due to electrostatic repulsion of hydroxide at the cathode interface. For a fixed aspect ratio L p /d p , narrower pores exhibit larger 𝜂 𝑠,CO 2 by shortening diffusion paths, whereas variations in the aspect ratio L p /d p play a secondary role. A dimensionless analysis (surface/bulk Damköhler numbers) delineates operating regimes. In conclusion, this work offers a concept for incorporating microkinetic models into homogenized porous-electrode models through effectiveness factors and pore-size distribution.

Au-catalyst↗

Coalition for Community-Supported Affordable Geothermal Energy Systems (C2SAGES)

The C2SAGES project evaluated the feasibility of a community geothermal system for the planned Windy Ridge affordable housing development in Hinesburg, Vermont. Led by GTI Energy with Vermont Gas Systems, LN Consulting, NREL, and Frontier Energy, the work assessed technical design, energy performance, costs, business models, community engagement, maintenance, workforce development, and permitting. The proposed system was designed to serve 100% of the development’s heating, cooling, and domestic hot water loads. Compared with a baseline using air-source heat pumps and natural gas water heating, the geothermal system was estimated to reduce HVAC and domestic hot water energy use by about 45% to 48%, lower operating and maintenance costs, and reduce 30-year life-cycle costs by 37% for Phase 1 and 10% for Phase 2. Technical testing and modeling indicated that the Windy Ridge site is suitable for a community-scale geothermal system. The project also developed borehole field layouts, piping concepts, pump house designs, controls, maintenance plans, and supporting engineering drawings. The business model analysis found that first cost, ownership structure, and customer affordability remain major deployment challenges. Utility-led maintenance and operation were viewed favorably, but traditional utility cost-recovery models may require subsidy or revised financing structures to be practical for affordable housing. Community engagement highlighted the need for clear public education, transparent financing, reliable long-term maintenance, trained technicians, and the potential to pair geothermal systems with weatherization. Overall, the report concludes that community geothermal is technically feasible and offers meaningful energy, emissions, and life-cycle cost benefits, but broader deployment will depend on workable financing models and workforce readiness.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗