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At least 415 records · Page 23

Hourly Electricity Demand Projections for Eight Combined Climate and Socioeconomic Scenarios

This dataset contains 40 years (1980-2019) of simulated historical hourly electricity demand (i.e., loads) and 80 years (2020-2099) of projected hourly loads for 54 Balancing Authorities (BAs) and 48 states plus the District of Columbia. Details about the scenarios and variables included in this dataset are in the readme.pdf file. The two primary models that created the dataset are a version of the Global Change Analysis Model with detailed sectoral resolution over the United States (GCAM-USA) and the Total ELectricity Loads (TELL) model. Links to the model source code and workflow for deriving the dataset are provided in an accompanying meta-repository: https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/burleyson-etal_2024_applied_energy. Projections are for four future climate scenarios that represent combinations of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 combined with two levels of climate model sensitivities: rcp45cooler, rcp45hotter, rcp85cooler, and rcp85hotter. The four climate scenarios are crossed with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 3 and 5 to yield eight different future load projections: rcp45cooler_ssp3, rcp45cooler_ssp5, rcp45hotter_ssp3, rcp45hotter_ssp5, rcp85cooler_ssp3, rcp85cooler_ssp5, rcp85hotter_ssp3, and rcp85hotter_ssp5. The climate scenarios are from the IM3 Thermodynamic Global Warming (TGW) dataset which is linked below in the related metadata. The related metadata also contains links to a repository containing the raw GCAM-USA output files.

Climate Change↗

Corrections to official ENDF/B Evaluation Releases for SCALE Nuclear Data

The official ENDF/B nuclear data evaluation releases in the past two decades have incrementally incorporated more detailed information, new nuclide evaluations, and very often have improved the accuracy of radiation transport codes when modeling shielding, fission reactors, criticality benchmarks, and fusion systems. However, like any large collaborative data compilation, these releases have all included small errors. This report documents the small corrections to ENDF/B releases ENDF/B-VII.1, ENDF/B-VIII.0, and ENDF/B-VIII.1 that have been applied during nuclear data processing to produce data libraries for the SCALE code system.

Brown, Jesse M. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (OR↗

Thermodynamic Limits of Redox-Based Thermochemical Processes (REDOTHERM)

Solar thermochemical fuel production is a potential pathway for the production of sustain liquid drop-in fuels, which can help decarbonize the aviation and maritime sectors. In an attempt to analyze the commercial viability of this technology, several studies have been conducted, including system and technoeconomic analysis (TEA) modeling. However, most studies to date simply assume a given redox reactor efficiency, which is significantly higher than demonstrated values to date. While it is widely recognized that utilizing a counter-current flow (CF) configuration could increase the redox reactor efficiency, an over-simplification in the thermodynamic modeling may lead to unphysical results which has been included in multiple publications. The fact that the solar redox reactor is the least developed component in the process chain makes it hard to identify technology gaps and evaluate pathways to deployment at scale using this approach. In this work, a thermodynamic model for a moving oxide system has been developed, in a general form that allows to analyze the system for different redox-active materials, under a wide range of operating conditions, for both parallel and countercurrent flows. The model capabilites are demonstrated, and the model's code will be shared as an open-source on GitHub in the next few months.

chemical looping↗

Space weather observations, modeling, and alerts in support of human exploration of Mars

Space weather observations and modeling at Mars have begun but they must be significantly increased to support the future of Human Exploration on the Red Planet. A comprehensive space weather understanding of a planet without a global magnetosphere and a thin atmosphere is very different from our situation at Earth so there is substantial fundamental research remaining. It is expected that the development of suitable models will lead to a comprehensive operational Mars space weather alert (MSWA) system that would provide rapid dissemination of information to Earth controllers, astronauts in transit, and those in the exploration zone (EZ) on the surface by producing alerts that are delivered rapidly and are actionable. To illustrate the importance of such a system, we use a magnetohydrodynamic code to model an extreme Carrington-type coronal mass ejection (CME) event at Mars. The results show a significant induced surface field of nearly 3,000 nT on the dayside that could radically affect unprotected electrical systems that would dramatically impact human survival on Mars. Other associated problems include coronal mass ejection (CME) shock-driven acceleration of solar energetic particles producing large doses of ionizing radiation at the Martian surface. In summary, along with working more closely with international partners, the next Heliophysics Decadal Survey must include a new initiative to meet expected demands for space weather forecasting in support of humans living and working on the surface of Mars. It will require significant effort to coordinate NASA and the international community contributions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Optimizing Price-Informed Operation of a Battery Storage System in an Office Building

New prescriptive efficiency requirements amended to US model energy codes historically have been evaluated using an average, blended electricity rate, which obscures demand charges. Post 2019, new measures can be evaluated using a representative time-of-use (TOU) tariff yet more sophisticated analysis methods are needed to consider a variety of TOU tariffs and assess price-informed control. To address these needs, this study couples building prototype simulation model with varying-in-sophistication battery storage operating strategies for different electricity TOU tariffs. The analysis compares the impact of operating a battery storage system following simpler rule-of-thumb methods versus a semi-optimized priced-informed heuristic approach. The investigation demonstrates that the heuristic approach results in greater electricity cost savings and is practical to implement.

Lei, Xuechen↗

Computational model for predicting the performance of fluid-powered longiudinal piston modules and motors.

A Matlab-based computational model line code has been developed for predicting the performance of fluid-powered longitudinal piston modules and motors. A system of equations has been developed based upon applying the conservation of mass to a control volume defined by a reciprocating piston. The method results in a differential equation that predicts the pressure gradient in the control volume as a function of rotor rotation angle. The model uses an integration scheme to predict the pressure state in the control volume. The orifice equation is used to predict the flowrate in and out of the control volume. From the resulting solution the torque and speed characteristics of the motor configuration can be predicted, optimized, or tailored for a specific requirement.SAND2019-13983 M Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Taylor, Michael↗

Influence of Antarctic and Greenland Continental Shelf Circulation on High‐Latitude Oceans in E3SM

The science objectives of this project are to simulate and understand the impacts of both deep-basin warm-water intrusions and land-ice melt on the continental shelf circulations and sea-ice distributions around the margins of Greenland and Antarctica. As well, the role of subsurface ocean heat from the Atlantic on declining sea-ice cover in the Arctic is explored. Mesoscale processes and fine bathymetry are implicated in cross-shelf property transports around both Greenland and Antarctica. Therefore, we configured and ran an atmospheric reanalysis-forced global ocean/sea-ice simulation on a grid that reduces from 8 km at the Equator to 2 km at the poles (UH8to2) with 60 vertical levels. It was produced using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model ‘‘HiLAT’’ code (E3SMv0-HiLAT) that uses the Parallel Ocean Program (POP) and CICE5 as its ocean and sea-ice components, respectively. Two main UH8to2 simulations were carried out: one for 1975-2009 and the other for July 2016-2020 after it was initialized from a 1/25° data-assimilative ocean/sea-ice prediction system ocean/sea-ice state. The UH8to2 is not coupled to an active land-ice model. Rather, land-ice melt is represented by observationally informed freshwater fluxes (FWFs). Short (multi-year) UH8to2 simulations were conducted to understand sensitivities when Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) melt is released only at the ocean surface or when it is distributed over the upper water column in accordance with fjord melt plume behavior; these cases were compared with a no GrIS melt case. West Greenland continental shelf currents were fastest in the vertical distribution case and an increase in baroclinic conversion at the shelf break associated with increased eddy kinetic energy was found relative to the surface release case. Further, salinity is lower and meltwater volume greater in the eastern Labrador Sea in the vertical distribution case. For the Arctic, the veracity of the UH8to2 was evaluated for 2017-2020 using available observations. Simulated seasonal sea-ice thickness and concentration are realistic, but the ice is unrealistically thin in the central and eastern Arctic in the fall. Comparisons of vertical sections of ocean temperature, salinity, and buoyancy collected from Ice-Tethered Profilers (ITPs) in the eastern Arctic in the fall and winter of 2019/2020 and co-located/concurrent UH8to2 fields show the stratification over the top 100 m of the water column is too low in the model, the simulated mixed layer too deep, and the simulated subsurface Atlantic Water (AW) too warm; these biases may contribute to the sea-ice biases. A model intercomparison study using the UH8to2 and a forced 1/25° regional Arctic ocean/sea-ice (uses the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model and CICE5) simulation further investigates the relationship between AW and sea-ice in the eastern Arctic. The models show a mesoscale-rich pulse of Atlantic Water extending into the eastern basin that reaches maximum intensity in late winter of 2018, after which it decreases in strength. Concurrent and co-located sea-ice melt or the inhibition of sea-ice growth is seen and is attributed to halocline mesoscale eddies doming into the mixed layer with convection bringing this heat into the vicinity of the sea-ice.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

AGR-5/6/7 Final Release-to-Birth Ratio Data Analysis

AGR-5/6/7 is the last of a series of Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) experiments conducted in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) in support of development and qualification of tristructural isotropic (TRISO) low-enriched fuel for use in the high-temperature gas cooled reactor (HTGR). AGR configuration and irradiation conditions are based on prismatic HTGR technology that is distinguished primarily through the use of helium coolant, a low-power-density ceramic core capable of withstanding very high temperatures, and TRISO-coated particle fuel. The AGR tests provide valuable irradiation-performance data to support fuel process development, qualify fuel for normal operation and accident conditions, and support development and validation of fuel performance and fission-product (FP) transport models and codes. Each AGR test consists of multiple independently controlled and monitored capsules containing fuel compacts placed in a graphite cylinder shrouded by a steel shell. Release-to-birth ratios (R/B) for fission-gas isotopes released from each capsule are calculated from release rates, measured by germanium detectors in the Fission Product Monitoring System (FPMS) installed downstream from each capsule, and birth rates calculated using numerical models of FG generation. The R/Bs are a critical measure of the ability of the fuel kernel, the particle coating layers, and the compact matrix to retain fission-gas atoms, preventing their release into the sweep-gas flow, and the impact of initially defective particles and/or particle-coating failures that occur during irradiation. For fission-gas isotopes, particle failure is defined as failure of all coating layers, allowing gaseous fission atoms to escape from a particle. During the first five cycles (162B ? 165A), R/Bs were stable in the 10-8?10-6 range, and no in-pile particle failures were observed, based on the gross gamma counts. The maximum R/B value of around 2 ? 10-6 for Kr-85m resulted from the presence of as-fabricated exposed kernels (based on the high exposed kernel fraction), the dispersed uranium, and high fuel particle temperatures in Capsule 1. Comparison of capsule-measured R/Bs from these early cycles to predictions using the previously developed AGR R/B model demonstrated FG release from the AGR-5/6/7 TRISO fuel was comparable to that of previous experiments. In addition, the Kr-85m R/B per-exposed-kernel values are comparable to R/B values obtained in AGR-3/4 irradiation experiment and four irradiation experiments performed during 1980s: (1) HRB-17/18, (2) COMEDIE-BD1, (3) HFR B1, and (4) HRB-21. In contrast, all measured R/B values are lower than predictions by the commonly used Richards and German models, which are intentionally conservative. A large number of in-pile particle failures occurred in Capsule 1 by the end of Cycle 166A. During the final four cycles (166A ? 168A), apparent damage to the Capsule 1 gas line appeared to cause FG leakage from that capsule into the other four capsules, resulting in an increase in fission gas (FG) detected in the effluent for all capsules. Isolation of the Capsule 1 gas line during the last three cycles also prevented measurement of its FG release. Thus, R/Bs in all capsules after Cycle 166A are highly uncertain because of undefined amount of leakage from Capsule 1, especially for long-lived isotopes. A few hundred in-pile particle failures were estimated for Capsule 1 before the end of Cycle 166A, but the total number of failures is unknown due to the lack of FG release data in the later cycles. Based primarily on evidence from the gross gamma counts during Cycle 168A, approximately 15 particles failed in Capsule 3 and four particles failed in Capsule 2. In-pile failures in Capsule 3 were anticipated because this capsule was designed to operate beyond the HTGR normal operating temperature range. In contrast, no in-pile failures were identified in the top two capsules (4 and 5) based on the absence of the typical spikes in gross gamma counts and low failure estimates using the AGR model, developed in INL/EXT-14-32970, for R/B of the short-lived isotopes (Kr-89 and Xe-137) with minimal leakage from Capsule 1.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

White Paper on Case Study of Safe Installation of Second-Life Energy Storage System

This technical report provides for a case study for the safe installation of a second-life, or repurposed, battery, that has been reconfigured for use as a stationary energy storage systems (ESS). Driven by legislative requirements such as California Senate Bill 615 and projections that retired EV batteries could meet a substantial portion of U.S. grid ESS needs beginning in 2035, the repurposing of EV batteries is anticipated to grow significantly. However, safety concerns arise from the effects of aging, unknown prior usage history, and changes in thermal runaway behavior, which may increase failure risks compared to new batteries. NFPA 855, the predominant U.S. standard for ESS installation, mandates that second-life batteries meet all requirements for new batteries, with repurposers complying with UL 1974 in addition to obtaining UL 9540 and UL 1973 listings. These are certifications that few repurposers have achieved and represent a regulatory barrier to entry for the market as a whole.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Quantifying dislocation-type defects in post irradiation examination via transfer learning

The quantitative analysis of dislocation-type defects in irradiated materials is critical to materials characterization in the nuclear energy industry. The conventional approach of an instrument scientist manually identifying any dislocation defects is both time-consuming and subjective, thereby potentially introducing inconsistencies in the quantification. This work approaches dislocation-type defect identification and segmentation using a standard open-source computer vision model, YOLO11, that leverages transfer learning to create a highly effective dislocation defect quantification tool while using only a minimal number of annotated micrographs for training. This model demonstrates the ability to segment both dislocation lines and loops concurrently in micrographs with high pixel noise levels and on two alloys not represented in the training set. Inference of dislocation defects using transmission electron microscopy on three different irradiated alloys relevant to the nuclear energy industry are examined in this work with widely varying pixel noise levels and with completely unrelated composition and dislocation formations for practical post irradiation examination analysis. Code and models are available at https://github.com/idaholab/PANDA.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Learning-Based Quantum Compilation: Translating QASM to QIR with CodeBERT

We propose a learning-based approach to quantum compilation by translating OpenQASM to Quantum Intermediate Representation (QIR) using a fine-tuned CodeBERT model. Trained on 10,000 synthetic QASM-QIR pairs, the model captures code semantics while addressing QIR verbosity and the 512-token limit via a custom token compression scheme. Finetuning was performed on the Frontier supercomputer, with results showing syntactic correctness and stable validation loss reduction. Our method moves toward enabling flexible, language-modeldriven quantum software tools. It also introduces syntax error handling and the possibility of incorporating classical control constructs, addressing limitations in existing rule-based compilers like qBraid-QIR. While the current model has been validated on quantum-only circuits, we propose future evaluations on hybrid quantum-classical examples. This poster will provide architecture insights, compression examples, training loss plots, and QIR outputs. Our work highlights the potential for scalable, adaptable compilation in future quantum toolchains.

Afrose, Sharmin [ORNL]↗

Commercial Building Prototypes Based on ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1-2019 Appendix G PRM: Technical Support Document

The two paths for documenting compliance with ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1 are the prescriptive path and the performance path. Beyond code programs and rating systems (for example, USGBC-LEED ) are primarily known to use a third path – the Appendix G Performance Rating Method. An update in the 2016 edition of Standard 90.1 approved the Appendix G Performance Rating System for code compliance, extending its application and allowing for greater consistency of modeling rules for code and beyond code building energy modeling. The Appendix G PRM provides rules for the development of whole building energy models of baseline and proposed models for calculating the “performance cost index target” value using the simulated energy results of the baseline and proposed models and the building performance factors published in Table 4.2.1.1 of the Standard. This report documents (1) the methodology used for development of the baseline and proposed energy models of the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and U.S. Department of Energy commercial building prototypes using the Appendix G Performance Rating Method; and (2) the building performance factors that were calculated using those models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Fault-tolerant resource comparison of qudit and qubit encodings for diagonal quadratic operators

Finite local Hilbert-space truncations arise naturally in quantum simulations of lattice field theories and motivate qudit encodings, but their fault-tolerant advantage over qubit encodings remains unclear. We compare the non-Clifford cost of implementing quadratic diagonal evolutions, exemplified by 𝑈 = 𝑒$^{−𝑖⁢𝑡⁢𝜙^2_𝑥}$ in a uniform field-amplitude discretization of a real scalar field, using either one logical 𝑑-level qudit or 𝑛 𝑏 = ⌈log 2⁡ 𝑑⌉ logical qubits. We analyze two standard settings: product-formula simulation and linear combination of unitaries (LCU) per block encoding, taking the resource metric to be the number of non-Clifford gates after synthesis into a discrete logical gate set. Because tight synthesis bounds for general single-qudit rotations are not known, we express the qudit constructions in terms of embedded two-level SU⁡(2) rotations and derive explicit finite-𝑑 break-even conditions for their synthesis cost; these serve as compiler targets for when qudit encodings can outperform the qubit baseline. Within the constructive models studied here, product-formula implementations would require an exponentially stronger per-primitive synthesis advantage for qudits to win asymptotically, while in the LCU setting the qubit encoding is asymptotically cheaper in 𝑑. Nevertheless, the finite-𝑑 threshold analysis identifies low-dimensional regions in which qudits can yield meaningful constant-factor savings, particularly for LCU-based implementations. As a secondary analysis of the LCU construction, we use an idealized negligible-overhead qubit-qudit code-switching model to give an absolute 𝑇-count comparison and reinterpret the savings as an allowable per-switch overhead budget.

Godwood, Samuel [Univ. of Liverpool (United Kingdo↗

Acceleration of the particle-in-cell code Osiris with graphics processing units

Fully relativistic particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations are crucial for advancing our knowledge of plasma physics. Modern supercomputers based on graphics processing units (GPUs) offer the potential to perform PIC simulations of unprecedented scale, but require robust and feature-rich codes that can fully leverage their computational resources. In this work, this demand is addressed by adding GPU acceleration to the PIC code Osiris. An overview of the algorithm, which features a CUDA extension to the underlying Fortran architecture, is given. Detailed performance benchmarks for thermal plasmas are presented, which demonstrate excellent weak scaling on NERSC's Perlmutter supercomputer and high levels of absolute performance. The robustness of the code to model a variety of physical systems is demonstrated via simulations of Weibel filamentation and laser-wakefield acceleration run with dynamic load balancing. Finally, measurements and analysis of energy consumption are provided that indicate that the GPU algorithm is up to ~14 times faster and ~7 times more energy efficient than the optimized CPU algorithm on a node-to-node basis. The described development addresses the PIC simulation community's computational demands both by contributing a robust and performant GPU-accelerated PIC code and by providing insight into efficient use of GPU hardware.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Enhanced accuracy through ensembling of randomly initialized auto-regressive models for dynamical systems

Computational mechanics simulations using traditional finite element methods (FEM) require prohibitively expensive computational resources for real-time engineering applications, design optimization, and digital twin implementations. While machine learning (ML) surrogate models offer significant computational speedups, autoregressive ML models for time-dependent mechanical systems suffer from error accumulation that compromises long-term prediction reliability - a critical concern for engineering applications where accuracy over extended time horizons is essential for safety and performance assessments. Here, we propose a deep ensemble framework specifically designed to address this challenge in computational mechanics applications, where multiple ML surrogate models with random weight initializations are trained in parallel and their predictions aggregated during inference. This approach leverages statistical diversity to maximize information gain from a fixed set of training data and to mitigate error propagation, while maintaining the computational efficiency that makes ML surrogates attractive for engineering practice. We validate the framework on three representative problems spanning critical areas of computational mechanics: stress field evolution in heterogeneous microstructures under complex loading (relevant to advanced materials design and composite analysis), planetary-scale shallow water dynamics (applicable to environmental and geotechnical engineering), and Gray-Scott reaction-diffusion systems (relevant to mass transport and chemical process engineering). Across all test cases, the ensemble approach demonstrates consistent error reduction of 15-33% compared to individual models. The codes for this work are available on GitHub (https://github.com/Graham-Brady-Research-Group/AutoregressiveEnsemble_SpatioTemporal_Evolution).

autoregressive prediction↗

Enabling Extended-Term Simulation of Power Systems with High PV Penetration. Final Report

This is the final Technical Report for DOE-SETO Project Award # DE-EE0036461. The goal of this project is to advance the understanding of the grid impact of high penetration of photovoltaic (PV) generation by developing novel numerical methods to solve the differential algebraic equations (DAEs) that define power systems. This will overcome the limitations of current software packages – namely that they only consider fast dynamics over brief time periods. The work presented in this final project report covers results over the entire period of the project. This includes results on model development, code development for the PST repository, datasets in the PST repository, algorithm development and results from variable time-step simulations, development and results from multirate simulations, and sensitivity analysis of key parameter in variable time-step methods. In addition, this report discusses project outreach activities to stakeholders, and a summary of project products. Also covered in this final report is the writing of two conference papers (one of which has already been accepted) and a journal paper. In addition, the updating of two inverter models (both grid forming and grid following) to be compatible with the latest version of PST software is discussed.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Prediction of PbLi fluid flow and temperature field in a thermal convection loop for qualification of fusion materials

Two modeling tools, a thermohydraulics code and a computational model in COMSOL Multiphysics, have been developed, tested and then applied to the analysis of fluid flow and heat transfer in a thermal convection loop (TCL). Such a device has recently been used to experimentally evaluate corrosion compatibility of APMT (Fe–21Cr–5Al–3Mo) steel with high-temperature molten eutectic lead-lithium (PbLi) alloy at Oak Ridge National Lab, TN, USA. Here, the 1-D thermohydraulics code allows for rapid calculations of the loop parameters as a function of the applied heat flux. The supplemental COMSOL finite-element computations provide detailed 3-D velocity and temperature field data but are much more time consuming. Both modelling tools demonstrate an excellent agreement in the computed circulation velocity as well as maximum and minimum temperatures. The performed TCL analysis focuses on flow development in the “hot” and “cold” legs, formation of Dean vortices in corner regions, blocking effect of the immersed samples, and radiative and convective cooling effects under the experiment-relevant conditions for Prandtl number Pr = 0.015, Grashof numbers Gr ~10 7 , and Reynolds numbers Re ~10 4 .

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Method for designing a combustion system with reduced environmentally-harmful emissions

A method for designing a combustion system which emits less of at least one environmentally-harmful emission is presented. In a describing step, an injector which introduces a fuel into a combustion chamber is described via a CFD code. In a modeling step, combustion kinetics of the fuel are modeled via a pre-processing code as the fuel mixes and reacts with an oxidizer. In a first selecting step, at least one primary scalar is derived during the modeling of the combustion kinetics. In a performing step, a table look-up is performed to obtain at least one data from a look-up database based on the primary scalar. In a second selecting step, at least one secondary scalar is selected in addition to the primary scalar(s). In a specifying step, at least one chemical pathway of formation or destruction for the secondary scalar is specified via a chemistry manager wherein the secondary scalar is representative of the environmentally-harmful emission(s) of the chemical pathway(s). In a utilizing step, the data is utilized to evaluate the chemical pathway(s) to quantify the environmentally-harmful emission(s). In an identifying step, an improvement to the combustion system is identified which reduces the environmentally-harmful emission(s).

Zambon, Andrea C.↗