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NASA NTRS1993

United States Weather Research Program (USWRP)

After more than a decade of development by a broad cross-section of the U.S. atmospheric research community involved in planning for the National STORM Program, the Subcommittee on Atmospheric Research (SAR) of the Committee on Earth and Environmental Science (CEES) led the development of a strategic plan to realize the objectives of STORM so as to improve our nation's capability to provide accurate short-term forecasts of weather. This strategic plan will guide the planning and implementation of what is now called the United States Weather Research Program (USWRP). The USWRP is charged with achieving operational atmospheric prediction based on mesoscale observations and model results and establishing the scientific and technological basis for global atmospheric mesoscale prediction by the year 2000. The key scientific questions that are addressed under USWRP are discussed.

Bhumralkar, Chandrakant↗

NASA NTRS2003

A Stochastic Model of Space-Time Variability of Mesoscale Rainfall: Statistics of Spatial Averages

A characteristic feature of rainfall statistics is that they depend on the space and time scales over which rain data are averaged. A previously developed spectral model of rain statistics that is designed to capture this property, predicts power law scaling behavior for the second moment statistics of area-averaged rain rate on the averaging length scale L as L right arrow 0. In the present work a more efficient method of estimating the model parameters is presented, and used to fit the model to the statistics of area-averaged rain rate derived from gridded radar precipitation data from TOGA COARE. Statistical properties of the data and the model predictions are compared over a wide range of averaging scales. An extension of the spectral model scaling relations to describe the dependence of the average fraction of grid boxes within an area containing nonzero rain (the "rainy area fraction") on the grid scale L is also explored.

Kundu, Prasun K.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Diabatic forcing and initialization with assimilation of cloud and rain water in a forecast model: Methodology

The focus of this part of the investigation is to find one or more general modeling techniques that will help reduce the time taken by numerical forecast models to initiate or spin-up precipitation processes and enhance storm intensity. If the conventional data base could explain the atmospheric mesoscale flow in detail, then much of our problem would be eliminated. But the data base is primarily synoptic scale, requiring that a solution must be sought either in nonconventional data, in methods to initialize mesoscale circulations, or in ways of retaining between forecasts the model generated mesoscale dynamics and precipitation fields. All three methods are investigated. The initialization and assimilation of explicit cloud and rainwater quantities computed from conservation equations in a mesoscale regional model are examined. The physical processes include condensation, evaporation, autoconversion, accretion, and the removal of rainwater by fallout. The question of how to initialize the explicit liquid water calculations in numerical models and how to retain information about precipitation processes during the 4-D assimilation cycle are important issues that are addressed. The explicit cloud calculations were purposely kept simple so that different initialization techniques can be easily and economically tested. Precipitation spin-up processes associated with three different types of weather phenomena are examined. Our findings show that diabatic initialization, or diabatic initialization in combination with a new diabatic forcing procedure, work effectively to enhance the spin-up of precipitation in a mesoscale numerical weather prediction forecast. Also, the retention of cloud and rain water during the analysis phase of the 4-D data assimilation procedure is shown to be valuable. Without detailed observations, the vertical placement of the diabatic heating remains a critical problem.

Raymond, William H.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Validation of mesocale number sea breeze thunderstorm forecasts over Florida using LPATS - The Lightning Position and Tracking System

The research reported in the present paper has the objective to develop improved operational techniques for sea breeze (SB) initiated convective storms. It is pointed out that the sea breeze is a relatively simple mesoscale circulation. The considered studies are mainly concerned with detailed thunderstorm potential forecasts during the next several hours, taking into account real-time predictions using new supercomputer technology. Thunderstorm and coastal mesoscale circulations are discussed along with the P3DM model sea. The considered code represents the result of a further development of the NOAA Florida sea breeze model which was introduced by Pielke (1974). After its modificataion, the model was renamed the Prognostic Three Dimensional Mesoscale (P3DM) Model, with its 2-D connterpart the P2DM. Attention is also given to real time climatology, and a case study concerned with developments occurring on 5 May 1984 over the Florida Peninsula.

Lyons, W. A.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Delta 2 Explosion Plume Analysis Report

A Delta II rocket exploded seconds after liftoff from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) on 17 January 1997. The cloud produced by the explosion provided an opportunity to evaluate the models which are used to track potentially toxic dispersing plumes and clouds at CCAFS. The primary goal of this project was to conduct a case study of the dispersing cloud and the models used to predict the dispersion resulting from the explosion. The case study was conducted by comparing mesoscale and dispersion model results with available meteorological and plume observations. This study was funded by KSC under Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) option hours. The models used in the study are part of the Eastern Range Dispersion Assessment System (ERDAS) and include the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), HYbrid Particle And Concentration Transport (HYPACT), and Rocket Exhaust Effluent Dispersion Model (REEDM). The primary observations used for explosion cloud verification of the study were from the National Weather Service's Weather Surveillance Radar 1988-Doppler (WSR-88D). Radar reflectivity measurements of the resulting cloud provided good estimates of the location and dimensions of the cloud over a four-hour period after the explosion. The results indicated that RAMS and HYPACT models performed reasonably well. Future upgrades to ERDAS are recommended.

Evans, Randolph J.↗

NASA NTRS2016

A Continuum Damage Mechanics Model to Predict Kink-Band Propagation Using Deformation Gradient Tensor Decomposition

A new model is proposed that represents the kinematics of kink-band formation and propagation within the framework of a mesoscale continuum damage mechanics (CDM) model. The model uses the recently proposed deformation gradient decomposition approach to represent a kink band as a displacement jump via a cohesive interface that is embedded in an elastic bulk material. The model is capable of representing the combination of matrix failure in the frame of a misaligned fiber and instability due to shear nonlinearity. In contrast to conventional linear or bilinear strain softening laws used in most mesoscale CDM models for longitudinal compression, the constitutive response of the proposed model includes features predicted by detailed micromechanical models. These features include: 1) the rotational kinematics of the kink band, 2) an instability when the peak load is reached, and 3) a nonzero plateau stress under large strains.

Bergan, Andrew C.↗

NASA NTRS2005

The 0.125 degree finite-volume General Circulation Model on the NASA Columbia Supercomputer: Preliminary Simulations of Mesoscale Vortices

The NASA Columbia supercomputer was ranked second on the TOP500 List in November, 2004. Such a quantum jump in computing power provides unprecedented opportunities to conduct ultra-high resolution simulations with the finite-volume General Circulation Model (fvGCM). During 2004, the model was run in realtime experimentally at 0.25 degree resolution producing remarkable hurricane forecasts [Atlas et al., 2005]. In 2005, the horizontal resolution was further doubled, which makes the fvGCM comparable to the first mesoscale resolving General Circulation Model at the Earth Simulator Center [Ohfuchi et al., 2004]. Nine 5-day 0.125 degree simulations of three hurricanes in 2004 are presented first for model validation. Then it is shown how the model can simulate the formation of the Catalina eddies and Hawaiian lee vortices, which are generated by the interaction of the synoptic-scale flow with surface forcing, and have never been reproduced in a GCM before.)

Shen, B.-W.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled Model Simulations of Precipitation in the Central Andes

The meridional extent and complex orography of the South American continent contributes to a wide diversity of climate regimes ranging from hyper-arid deserts to tropical rainforests to sub-polar highland regions. In addition, South American meteorology and climate are also made further complicated by ENSO, a powerful coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon. Modelling studies in this region have typically resorted to either atmospheric mesoscale or atmosphere-ocean coupled global climate models. The latter offers full physics and high spatial resolution, but it is computationally inefficient typically lack an interactive ocean, whereas the former offers high computational efficiency and ocean-atmosphere coupling, but it lacks adequate spatial and temporal resolution to adequate resolve the complex orography and explicitly simulate precipitation. Explicit simulation of precipitation is vital in the Central Andes where rainfall rates are light (0.5-5 mm hr-1), there is strong seasonality, and most precipitation is associated with weak mesoscale-organized convection. Recent increases in both computational power and model development have led to the advent of coupled ocean-atmosphere mesoscale models for both weather and climate study applications. These modelling systems, while computationally expensive, include two-way ocean-atmosphere coupling, high resolution, and explicit simulation of precipitation. In this study, we use the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST), a fully-coupled mesoscale atmosphere-ocean modeling system. Previous work has shown COAWST to reasonably simulate the entire 2003-2004 wet season (Dec-Feb) as validated against both satellite and model analysis data when ECMWF interim analysis data were used for boundary conditions on a 27-9-km grid configuration (Outer grid extent: 60.4S to 17.7N and 118.6W to 17.4W).

Regional Climate Model↗

NASA NTRS2012

Preliminary Results of a U.S. Deep South Modeling Experiment Using NASA SPoRT Initialization Datasets for Operational National Weather Service Local Model Runs

A joint collaborative modeling effort among the NWS offices in Mobile, AL, and Houston, TX, and NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center began during the 2011-2012 cold season, and continued into the 2012 warm season. The focus was on two frequent U.S. Deep South forecast challenges: the initiation of deep convection during the warm season; and heavy precipitation during the cold season. We wanted to examine the impact of certain NASA produced products on the Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System in improving the model representation of mesoscale boundaries such as the local sea-, bay- and land-breezes (which often leads to warm season convective initiation); and improving the model representation of slow moving, or quasi-stationary frontal boundaries (which focus cold season storm cell training and heavy precipitation). The NASA products were: the 4-km Land Information System, a 1-km sea surface temperature analysis, and a 4-km greenness vegetation fraction analysis. Similar domains were established over the southeast Texas and Alabama coastlines, each with an outer grid with a 9 km spacing and an inner nest with a 3 km grid spacing. The model was run at each NWS office once per day out to 24 hours from 0600 UTC, using the NCEP Global Forecast System for initial and boundary conditions. Control runs without the NASA products were made at the NASA SPoRT Center. The NCAR Model Evaluation Tools verification package was used to evaluate both the positive and negative impacts of the NASA products on the model forecasts. Select case studies will be presented to highlight the influence of the products.

Wood, Lance↗

NASA NTRS2000

A New Eddy Dissipation Rate Formulation for the Terminal Area PBL Prediction System(TAPPS)

The TAPPS employs the MASS model to produce mesoscale atmospheric simulations in support of the Wake Vortex project at Dallas Fort-Worth International Airport (DFW). A post-processing scheme uses the simulated three-dimensional atmospheric characteristics in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) to calculate the turbulence quantities most important to the dissipation of vortices: turbulent kinetic energy and eddy dissipation rate. TAPPS will ultimately be employed to enhance terminal area productivity by providing weather forecasts for the Aircraft Vortex Spacing System (AVOSS). The post-processing scheme utilizes experimental data and similarity theory to determine the turbulence quantities from the simulated horizontal wind field and stability characteristics of the atmosphere. Characteristic PBL quantities important to these calculations are determined based on formulations from the Blackadar PBL parameterization, which is regularly employed in the MASS model to account for PBL processes in mesoscale simulations. The TAPPS forecasts are verified against high-resolution observations of the horizontal winds at DFW. Statistical assessments of the error in the wind forecasts suggest that TAPPS captures the essential features of the horizontal winds with considerable skill. Additionally, the turbulence quantities produced by the post-processor are shown to compare favorably with corresponding tower observations.

Charney, Joseph J.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Observed structure of mesoscale convective systems and implications for large-scale heating

The model for the idealized tropical mesoscale convective system proposed by Houze (1982) is examined. Observations of the structure of mesoscale convective systems are used to determine the applicability of the conceptual model. Data on the vertical distribution of vertical air motion in the convective and stratiform regions of mesoscale convective systems are discussed and the treatment of this distribution in Houze's model is considered.

Houze, Robert A., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2005

NASA Soil Moisture Data Products and Their Incorporation in DREAM

NASA provides soil moisture data products that include observations from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer on the Earth Observing System Aqua satellite, field measurements from the Soil Moisture Experiment campaigns, and model predictions from the Land Information System and the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System. Incorporation of the NASA soil moisture products in the Dust Regional Atmospheric Model is possible through use of the satellite observations of soil moisture to set initial conditions for the dust simulations. An additional comparison of satellite soil moisture observations with mesoscale atmospheric dynamics modeling is recommended. Such a comparison would validate the use of NASA soil moisture data in applications and support acceptance of satellite soil moisture data assimilation in weather and climate modeling.

Blonski, Slawomir↗

NASA NTRS1979

Program of research in severe storms

Two modeling areas, the development of a mesoscale chemistry-meteorology interaction model, and the development of a combined urban chemical kinetics-transport model are examined. The problems associated with developing a three dimensional combined meteorological-chemical kinetics computer program package are defined. A similar three dimensional hydrostatic real time model which solves the fundamental Navier-Stokes equations for nonviscous flow is described. An urban air quality simulation model, developed to predict the temporal and spatial distribution of reactive and nonreactive gases in and around an urban area and to support a remote sensor evaluation program is reported.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2006

Using Multi-scale Modeling System to Study the Interactions between Clouds, Precipitation, Aerosols, Radiation and Land Surface

Numerical cloud models, which are based the non-hydrostatic equations of motion, have been extensively applied to cloud-scale and mesoscale processes during the past four decades. Because cloud-scale dynamics are treated explicitly, uncertainties stemming from convection that have to be parameterized in (hydrostatic) large-scale models are obviated, or at least mitigated, in cloud models. Global models will use the non-hydrostatic framework when their horizontal resolution becomes about 10 kilometers, the theoretical limit for the hydrostatic approximation. This juncture will be reached one to two decades from now. Over the past generation, voluminous datasets on atmospheric convection have been accumulated from radar, instrumented aircraft, satellites, and rawinsonde measurements in field campaigns, enabling the detailed evaluation of models. Improved numerical methods have resulted in more accurate and efficient dynamical cores in models. Improvements have been made in the parameterizations of microphysical processes, radiation, boundary-layer effects, and turbulence; however, microphysical parameterizations remain a major source of uncertainty in all classes of atmospheric models. In recent years, exponentially increasing computer power has extended cloud-resolving-model integrations from hours to months, the number of computational grid points from less than a thousand to close to ten million. Three-dimensional models are now more prevalent. Much attention is devoted to precipitating cloud systems where the crucial 1-kilometer scales are resolved in horizontal domains as large as 10,000 kilometers in two-dimensions, and 1,000 x 1,000 square kilometers in three-dimensions. Cloud models now provide statistical information useful for developing more realistic physically based parameterizations for climate models and numerical weather prediction models. It is also expected that NWP and mesoscale model can be run in grid size similar to cloud resolving model through nesting technique. A review of developments, improvements and applications of cloud models (GCE and WRF) at Goddard will be presented in this talk. In particular, a new approach to using multi-scale modeling system to study the interactions between clouds, precipitation, aerosols and land will be presented.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

NASA NTRS2006

Using Multi-scale Modeling System to Study the Interactions between Clouds, Precipitation, Aerosols, Radiation and Land Surface

Numerical cloud models, which are based the non-hydrostatic equations of motion, have been extensively applied to cloud-scale and mesoscale processes during the past four decades. Because cloud-scale dynamics are treated explicitly, uncertainties stemming from convection that have to be parameterized in (hydrostatic) large-scale models are obviated, or at least mitigated, in cloud models. Global models will use the non-hydrostatic framework when their horizontal resolution becomes about 10 kilometers, the theoretical limit for the hydrostatic approximation. This juncture will be reached one to two decades from now. Over the past generation, voluminous datasets on atmospheric convection have been accumulated from radar, instrumented aircraft, satellites, and rawinsonde measurements in field campaigns, enabling the detailed evaluation of models. Improved numerical methods have resulted in more accurate and efficient dynamical cores in models. Improvements have been made in the parameterizations of microphysical processes, radiation, boundary-layer effects, and turbulence; however, microphysical parameterizations remain a major source of uncertainty in all classes of atmospheric models. In recent years, exponentially increasing computer power has extended cloud-resolving-model integrations from hours to months, the number of computational grid points from less than a thousand to close to ten million. Three-dimensional models are now more prevalent. Much attention is devoted to precipitating cloud systems where the crucial-lkm scales are resolved in horizontal domains as large as 10,000 kilometers in two-dimensions, and 1,000 x 1,000 square kilometers in three-dimensions. Cloud models now provide statistical information useful for developing more realistic physically based parameterizations for climate models and numerical weather prediction models. It is also expected that NWP and mesoscale model can be run in grid size similar to cloud resolving model through nesting technique. A review of developments, improvements and applications of cloud models (GCE and WRF) at Goddard wlll be is presented in this talk. In particular, a new approach to using multi-scale modeling system to study the interactions between clouds, precipitation, aerosols and land will be presented.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

NASA NTRS2008

A Multi-Scale Modeling System with Unified Physics

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

NASA NTRS2006

Using Multi-scale Modeling System to Study the Interactions between Clouds, Precipitation, Aerosols, Radiation and Land Surface

Numerical cloud models, which are based the non-hydrostatic equations of motion, have been extensively applied to cloud-scale and mesoscale processes during the past four decades. Because cloud-scale dynamics are treated explicitly, uncertainties stemming from convection that have to be parameterized in (hydrostatic) large-scale models are obviated, or at least mitigated, in cloud models. Global models will use the non-hydrostatic framework when their horizontal resolution becomes about 10 km, the theoretical limit for the hydrostatic approximation. This juncture will be reached one to two decades from now. Over the past generation, voluminous datasets on atmospheric convection have been accumulated from radar, instrumented aircraft, satellites, and rawinsonde measurements in field campaigns, enabling the detailed evaluation of models. Improved numerical methods have resulted in more accurate and efficient dynamical cores in models. Improvements have been made in the parameterizations of microphysical processes, radiation, boundary-layer effects, and turbulence; however, microphysical parameterizations remain a major source of uncertainty in all classes of atmospheric models. In recent years, exponentially increasing computer power has extended cloud-resolving-model integrations from hours to months, the number of computational grid points from less than a thousand to close to ten million. Three-dimensional models are now more prevalent. Much attention is devoted to precipitating cloud systems where the crucial 1-km scales are resolved in horizontal domains as large as 10,000 km in two-dimensions, and 1,000 x 1,000 sq km in three-dimensions. Cloud models now provide statistical information useful for developing more realistic physically based parameterizations for climate models and numerical weather prediction models. It is also expected that NWP and mesoscale model can be run in grid size similar to cloud resolving model through nesting technique. A review of developments, improvements and applications of cloud models (GCE and WRF) at Goddard will be presented in this talk. In particular, a new approach to using multi-scale modeling system to study the interactions between clouds, precipitation, aerosols and land will be presented.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

NASA NTRS1995

Approaches for averaging surface parameters and fluxes over heterogeneous terrain

Successful prediction of possible climate change depends on realistic parameterization of land surface processes in climate models. Such parameterizations must take appropriate account of the heterogeneities that are found in most earth surfaces. In this study, different averaging strategies for aggregating patch-scale heterogeneities to scales that are appropriate for mesoscale and climate model grids have been explored. A simple model for estimating area-average 'effective' surface flux parameters is evaluated. The model satisfies the energy balance equation and leads to a set of relationships between local and effective parameters in the governing equations for the surface energy balance. One outcome is that the resulting effective surface temperature is not a simple area-weighted average of component temperatures, but is a function of a specific combination of different resistances of the individual surface elements. A set of heterogeneous surfaces has been simulated to study the effective fluxes obtained using the described model. A comparison with results obtained by other investigators using different averaging methods is also performed.

Chehbouni, A.↗