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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Sustainable hydrogen manufacturing via renewable-integrated intensified process for refueling stations

The widescale consumer adoption of hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (HFCEVs) is currently hindered by the high cost of small-scale hydrogen generation and the lack of extensive hydrogen refueling infrastructure. Natural gas-based hydrogen is cheaper when produced in large volumes but is also associated with high CO 2 emissions. To counter these challenges, we propose a hybrid approach where both natural gas and renewables are integrated in a synergistic manner using a dynamic process intensification technology that can be deployed on-site for meeting local demands of refueling stations. The technology is based on sorption enhanced steam methane reforming (SE-SMR) that utilizes a combination of reaction with in-situ CO 2 adsorption for enhancing process modularity, productivity and efficiency thereby outperforming conventional SMR at small scale. We develop a mixed integer linear programming (MILP)-based optimization framework for simultaneous design and scheduling of the SE-SMR process. The simultaneous optimization provides a synergistic combination whereby the renewables allow sustainable hydrogen manufacturing and the dynamic SE-SMR allows optimal use of the intermittency of the renewables. The U.S. nationwide analysis indicates that for futuristic renewable prices and a hydrogen production capacity of 2 ton/day, hydrogen can be produced at 50% less cost compared to the current cost of small-scale hydrogen generation. Finally, the city-wise analysis with varying hydrogen demand shows that even with just 5% HFCEV market penetration level, hydrogen production cost less than $3/kg can be obtained at small scales across the United States with even cheaper hydrogen for large cities.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2023

Life-cycle analysis of recycling of post-use plastic to plastic via pyrolysis

Advanced recycling enables the application of post-use plastics (PUP) to produce valuable industrial chemicals and develop markets for recycled feedstocks. Pyrolysis is one of the most common advanced recycling technologies undergoing industrial-scale implementation for converting PUP. This paper presents a life cycle analysis (LCA) to assess greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, fossil energy, water consumption, and solid waste impacts of converting PUP into new plastics such as high-density and low-density polyethylene (HDPE and LDPE, respectively). Data was collected from eight plastic pyrolysis companies. This study addresses the impacts of pyrolysis plant size and maturity; two substitution rate (SR) cases of pyrolysis oil with fossil-derived feedstocks in steam crackers (5% and a 20% of pyrolysis oil SR); and potentially avoided emissions from traditional end-of-life (EOL) management. Because the conventional feedstock slate of steam crackers in the Unites States is comprised of 94% gases (a mix of ethane, propane, and butane) and 6% naphtha, the 5% SR case looked at polyethylene (PE) derived from 5% pyrolysis oil, 1% naphtha, and 94% gases; while the 20% SR looked at PE derived from 20% pyrolysis oil and 80% gases. Moreover, the results are presented from two perspectives: 1) steam crackers' and 2) plastic recyclers'. In the recyclers' perspective, the results for the 5% SR showed for each kg of PUP used there was a 23% and 18% decrease in GHG emissions for HDPE and LDPE respectively, while the 20% SR showed a 4% and 3% reduction in GHG emissions for HDPE and LDPE respectively compared to virgin plastic. The 20% SR has lower GHG emissions reductions because there is an added step of hydrotreating the pyrolysis oil to remove chlorine concentrations that is not included in the 5% SR scenario. Furthermore, the 5% SR removes most of the naphtha, a more carbon intense feedstock, and replaces it with PUP-based pyrolysis oil, a less carbon intense feedstock. GHG emissions for PUP pyrolysis could be further reduced by 50% and 131% in the United States and European Union respectively if the GHG emissions of current PUP incineration practices were considered as emission reductions credits.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Interregional Electricity Transmission in the United States: Realized Savings and Opportunities for Increased Value, 2014 to 2023

Interregional electricity trade in the United States reduces total energy costs, but falls short of maximizing the economic potential of existing transmission infrastructure. This analysis of thirty-two U.S. electricity system interfaces crossing grid or market seams finds an average achieved cost savings of at least $1,226 million per year. This positive impact is offset by an average annual cost of uneconomic interchange of $551 million. Additional value of at least $238 million per year could be enabled by increasing utilization. Notably, uneconomic flows and low utilization rates can persist even when the price spread between regions is large. These conclusions are derived from historical (2014–2023) data on the magnitude and direction of interregional price spreads, the magnitude and direction of net energy transfers, and how these variables coincide, but do not account for all system constraints. These findings motivate the development and deployment of solutions that improve interregional transmission operations, in parallel with robust transmission infrastructure planning. JEL Classification: Q40 Energy: General

Q40 Energy: General↗
DOE OSTI2021

Recipes for a Successful Exit for Clean- and Hard-tech Startups

This study demonstrates the combinations of multiple causal factors that formulate a startup’s strategy to successfully “exit”, namely “recipes for a successful exit,” in the clean- and hard-tech sector. We identify seven key causal factors (i.e., causal conditions) that impact startup success, including commercial readiness, investor interactions, favorable industry, non-financial support, straightforward development path, experienced team, and visibility to investors. We also investigate the combinations of selective causal conditions that can provide further synergetic impact. We conduct the fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) on seven US clean and hard-tech startups that exited between 2005 and 2016. The successful companies all demonstrate distinctive characteristics based on three general categories (1) robust ecosystem; (2) heavy-lifting team; or (3) external opportunity. Across these three categories, commercial readiness and strong investor interactions are necessary conditions for all exit cases. But there are important differences that drive success in each category, such as the interaction with non-financial support (in the robust ecosystem case), experienced team (in the heavy-lifting team case), and favorable industry (in the external opportunity case). Furthermore, our findings are meant to support entrepreneurs in reaching an exit by optimizing the given internal and external circumstances, and policymakers to build a robust ecosystem that can increase the success rate of the clean- and hardtech development.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2025

University of Hawai‘i, Shallow Geothermal Resources: Energy Technology Innovation Partnership Project (Final Report)

Scientists at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) have teamed up with the University of Hawai‘i at Manoa (UH Manoa) through the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Technology Innovation Partnership Project to evaluate the technological and market feasibility of shallow geothermal heat exchanger (GHE) technology. UH requested this analysis to evaluate opportunities in building cooling, energy efficiency, and emissions reduction applications in Hawai‘i. UH has an abundance of geologic and geothermal data and is looking to the national labs’ expertise to execute this analysis. UH is also interested in investigating policy, regulatory, and business conditions advantageous for implementation of a pilot project and more broad deployment of this technology in Hawai‘i. In many locations around the world, the demands for heating and cooling are roughly balanced over the course of the year, so GHEs do not cause significant long-term changes in subsurface temperature. This is not the case in Hawai’i, where the demand for heating is very small, meaning that, over time, GHEs will add heat to the subsurface. If temperatures increase significantly, GHE systems will not work as designed. Regional groundwater flow has the potential to sweep heated water away from boreholes, thereby maintaining the functionality of the GHE system. Significant regional groundwater flow requires two things: a sufficiently large driving hydraulic head gradient (usually closely related to surface topography), and sufficient porosity and permeability to enable groundwater to flow in large enough quantities to enable near-borehole temperatures to be maintained at ambient values. Hawai‘i’s volcanic terrain offers ample surface topographic variation. The lava itself shows an extremely large range of porosity and permeability, so sites with large enough values of these properties must be selected. Numerical modeling of coupled groundwater and heat flow can be used to determine how large is large enough. Primarily, closed-loop systems have been investigated. Other options considered are open-loop systems and using cool seawater as the chilling source. Project work investigated the feasibility of GHE technology at two scales. At the island scale, GIS layers of various attributes relevant for GHE were combined to develop an overall favorability map for employing GHE in Hawai‘i. At the local scale, a hydrogeologic model for the subsurface component of a closed-loop system was developed for the Stan Sheriff Center at the UH Manoa campus. This site is considered promising because the rock below and immediately downgradient of the borefield is highly permeable, consisting of a subsurface karst system (limestone containing high-permeability open channels), which is underlain by a thick, high-permeability fractured basalt. Moreover, the site is near the base of the Ko‘olau Range, providing a large hydraulic head gradient. Thus, groundwater flow through the site is expected to be large, enabling efficient removal of heated groundwater. A full-GHE-system model of the site was also developed, with a simplified representation of the subsurface, in which groundwater flow is not considered and heat transfer is purely by conduction. Using the building cooling load data provided by UH, simulation results show that with groundwater flow present, a GHE can operate successfully for at least 10 years, but with no groundwater flow, the subsurface begins to heat up after only one year of operation, making the GHE unviable within 2-6 years. The team also developed a techno-economic model for this site to compare the cost of cooling using a GHE system with the costs of operating the current air-conditioning system. The GHE system is advantageous economically if favorable tax incentives and interest rates can be obtained.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1980

Central station applications planning activities and supporting studies

The application of photovoltaic technology in central station (utility) power generation plants is considered. A program of data collection and analysis designed to provide additional information about the subset of the utility market that was identified as the initial target for photovoltaic penetration, the oil-dependent utilities (especially muncipals) of the U.S. Sunbelt, is described along with a series of interviews designed to ascertain utility industry opinions about the National Photovoltaic Program as it relates to central station applications.

Leonard, S. L.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

What’s Next in Regional (Air) Mobility? Finding the next possible big ideas in selected problems

This presentation summarizes studies ongoing under the "What's Next in Regional (Air) Mobility" umbrella within the Intercenter Systems Analysis Team. It includes a look at the Regional Air Mobility (RAM) market potential, simulation of a RAM passenger network to gather statistics, and scrutinizes airport energy needs to support RAM operations. It also references a companion presentation provided by the DOT Volpe Center presented by Jacob Wishart related to RAM market and demand estimates.

Advanced Air Mobility↗
DOE OSTI2021

Case Study: Hybrid Carbon Conversion Using Low-Carbon Energy Sources in Coal-Producing States

The demand for more carbon efficient power sources and a decrease in natural gas prices has decreased the desire for coal power. This decrease in demand has led to massive job losses in coal mining regions over the past decade. The purpose of this project is to develop a hybrid energy system utilizing both a coal power plant and advanced reactor, which is competitive with natural gas by improving on profitability and decreasing carbon emissions. This report details the problem with a summary of the impact on the coal industry and the availability of renewable energy sources in the Appalachian region. Because of the geography of the region, variable renewable energy sources are not available without significant size and siting restrictions. However, biomass in the form of wood waste is abundant and can be used as a carbon neutral energy source. Combining biomass and coal processing, in addition to thermal power plants, can increase system profits and efficiency by providing peaking power and conversion opportunities for secondary markets. The electric load is based on publicly available demand data from Appalachian Power, which services the western Virginia and southern West Virginia in the Appalachian region. The demand information is combined by service, normalized, and scaled to an average demand of 1000 kW, which will be the basis for sizing the hybrid energy system. A traditional screening curve analysis for a coal plant and advanced reactor shows that the least cost design varies significantly based on the assumed discount rate and capital recovery period. An optimization program to size the design in TEAL based on the load curve gives 10 optimal designs, all with a negative resulting net present value (NPV) and a coal plant capacity of less than 15%. Including profits from selling captured carbon at a flat rate results in a positive NPV; however, the coal capacity factor only increases to about 40%. There are limitations with this optimization as well since the price of CO2 is likely to decrease as more is sold to the conversion market. The suggested design will combine coal power, an advanced reactor, and coal and biomass coprocessing to produce a variety of products that can be sold to the conversion market while increasing system efficiency. The analysis of conversion pathways for coal and biomass reveals that multiple options will need to be included in the analysis to produce the optimal system design. Three systems will be optimized and compared to determine the best design based on the figures of merit of total NPV and cost of carbon avoided. The first system will include a coal power plant and an advanced reactor that will sell electricity to the grid to meet demand and sell captured carbon to the conversion market. The second system adds a high-temperature steam electrolysis plant, which will utilize electricity during times of low demand to produce hydrogen and sell it to the conversion market. The third system adds biomass and coal processing with options for hydrocarbon oils, syngas to be produced for the conversion market, and electricity generation to power components within the system or provide peaking power. This analysis will be based on a new approach that combines traditional screening curve methods with a dispatch algorithm that optimizes the system based on the opportunity cost of different production options. The resulting optimization algorithm should provide results with less processing time than HERON’s decision tree method. The results from this analysis will determine an optimal design and reinforce the benefits of coal power when used in a hybrid energy system. The initial results show that the addition of a secondary market for carbon sales could result in a positive NPV and increases the capacity factor of the coal plant as compared to a design with only sales to the electricity market. The addition of more markets and additional coal consumption from biomass coprocessing could increase NPV further, replace carbon in other markets through the sale of biomass-derived hydrocarbons, and demonstrate the value of coal power technology.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2022

Exploring the potential of hydrogen in decarbonizing China's light-duty vehicle market

The Chinese government has pledged to achieve overall carbon neutrality by 2060. Currently, the transportation sector contributes to about 10% of total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China. Hence, China has created a well-defined energy vehicle development strategy to reduce GHG emissions from the transportation sector, further expanding into hydrogen vehicle technologies. In this study, the Transportation Energy Analysis Model (TEAM) investigates the potential of hydrogen internal combustion engine vehicles (H2- ICEVs) and fuel cell vehicles (FCEVs) as a reliable pathway towards the government's aspiration of carbon neutrality in the transportation sector. According to TEAM, by adopting FCEVs and H2-ICEVs in the vehicle market, hydrogen demand could reach 25% of the total light-duty transportation energy demand in 2050. Consequently, this will lead to an annual reduction of more than 35 million tons GHG compared to only counting on the electrification pathway in the decarbonization task. Besides, FCEVs would take longer to penetrate the light-duty vehicle market compared to H2-ICEVs, as the current fuel cell technology still requires much improvement to attain a competitive vehicle cost of production.

Life cycle analysis↗
NASA NTRS2015

Examining Volcanic Terrains Using In Situ Geochemical Technologies; Implications for Planetary Field Geology

Regardless of the target destination for the next manned planetary mission, the crew will require technology with which to select samples for return to Earth. The six Apollo lunar surface missions crews had only the tools to enable them to physically pick samples up off the surface or from a boulder and store those samples for return to the Lunar Module and eventually to Earth. Sample characterization was dependent upon visual inspection and relied upon their extensive geology training. In the four decades since Apollo however, great advances have been made in traditionally laboratory-based instrument technologies that enable miniaturization to a field-portable configuration. The implications of these advancements extend past traditional terrestrial field geology and into planetary surface exploration. With tools that will allow for real-time geochemical analysis, an astronaut can better develop a series of working hypotheses that are testable during surface science operations. One such technology is x-ray fluorescence (XRF). Traditionally used in a laboratory configuration, these instruments have now been developed and marketed commercially in a field-portable mode. We examine this technology in the context of geologic sample analysis and discuss current and future plans for instrument deployment. We also discuss the development of the Chromatic Mineral Identification and Surface Texture (CMIST) instrument at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). Testing is taking place in conjunction with the RIS4E (Remote, In Situ, and Synchrotron Studies for Science and Exploration) SSERVI (Solar System Exploration and Research Virtual Institute) team activities, including field testing at Kilauea Volcano, HI..

Young, K. E.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Towards a standard approach to the analysis of carbon products generated from Natural Gas pyrolysis

Conference presentation for the work entitled “A standard approach to the analysis of carbon products generated from Natural Gas pyrolysis”. Pyrolysis of natural gas (NGP) has been proposed as a near term solution for the production of direct CO2 free (turquoise) hydrogen, to help fuel a more sustainable energy future. NGP can serve as a bridging technology while other (green) hydrogen production technologies mature. In order for NGP to be successful, the management of the generated carbon products needs to be carefully considered. Necessary markets need to be considered to incorporate the (turquoise) carbon products that are generated. A large hurdle in addressing the channeling of carbon products into desired markets is determining exactly what is manufactured from the NGP process. In this work an analysis method is presented that combines a suite of techniques for the assessment of the carbon product from Natural Gas Pyrolysis for appropriate identification and quality control.

Riley, Jarrett↗
NASA NTRS2003

Family Life Cycle and Deforestation in Amazonia: Combining Remotely Sensed Information with Primary Data

This paper examines the relationships between the socio-demographic characteristics of small settlers in the Brazilian Amazon and the life cycle hypothesis in the process of deforestation. The analysis was conducted combining remote sensing and geographic data with primary data of 153 small settlers along the TransAmazon Highway. Regression analyses and spatial autocorrelation tests were conducted. The results from the empirical model indicate that socio-demographic characteristics of households as well as institutional and market factors, affect the land use decision. Although remotely sensed information is not very popular among Brazilian social scientists, these results confirm that they can be very useful for this kind of study. Furthermore, the research presented by this paper strongly indicates that family and socio-demographic data, as well as market data, may result in misspecification problems. The same applies to models that do not incorporate spatial analysis.

Caldas, M.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating the Impacts of Autonomous Electric Vehicles Adoption on Vehicle Miles Traveled and CO2 Emissions

Autonomous electric vehicles (AEVs) can potentially revolutionize the transportation landscape, offering a safer, contact-free, easily accessible, and more eco-friendly mode of travel. Prior to the market uptake of AEVs, it is critical to understand the consumer segments that are most likely to adopt these vehicles. Beyond market adoption, it is also important to quantify the impact of AEVs on broader transportation systems and the environment, such as impacts on the annual vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In this pilot study, using survey data, a statistical model correlating AEV adoption intention and socioeconomic and built environment attributes was estimated, and a sensitivity analysis was conducted to understand the importance of factors impacting AEV adoption. We found that the market segments range from early adopters who are wealthy, technologically savvy, and relatively young to non-adopters who are more cautious to new technologies. This is followed by a synthetic population microsimulation of market penetration for the San Francisco Bay Area. With five household vehicle replacement scenarios, we assessed the annual VMT and tailpipe carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions change associated with vehicle replacement. It is found that adopting AEVs can potentially reduce more than 5 megatons of CO2 yearly, which is approximately 30% of the total CO2 emitted by internal combustion engine (ICE) cars in the region.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comparative Analysis of Airspace System Accessibility for Uncrewed Aircraft Systems for Regional Operations

As part of newly developing aviation markets, fixed-wing Uncrewed Aircraft Systems (UAS) are projected to impact airspace systems and conventional air traffic in the future. The initial introduction of fixed-wing cargo UAS for regional operations is anticipated to occur at smaller under-utilized airports. Therefore, this paper assesses the integration potential of regional fixed-wing cargo UAS into the airspace system. A baseline is established to identify potential airports for UAS operations in different areas. Additionally, using 2022 data, regional aircraft eligible for future cargo UAS operations are investigated. Finally, the accessibility of these regional aircraft at the identified airports was analyzed. Based on the availability of current certified landing systems needed for initial UAS operations, the potential airports for UAS operations are compared in the areas of Germany, Texas, and California. Despite 173 identified airports for potential UAS operations in Germany, 376 in Texas, and 227 in California, only eleven of these airports provide current certified landing systems needed for initial UAS operations. However, other landing system technologies that are currently under development, such as vision-based landing systems, might support UAS accessibility at the identified airports for potential UAS operations in the future.

Uncrewed aircraft systems↗
NASA NTRS2026

A Summary of Test and Analysis Results from a Second Lift+Cruise Full-Scale Drop Test

The realization of advanced air mobility markets is enabling new forms of transportation to take shape in the United States and around the world. Though currently in development, as these markets mature, new types of vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) vehicles have been undergoing development for use. There are many factors which must be addressed prior to these types of vehicles becoming viable alternative forms of transportation in these markets. These factors include incorporation into the existing airspaces, the logistics of operating in urban environments, along with numerous factors associated with safety and reliability. To address some of the safety aspects associated with the development of these new types of vehicles, NASA has been conducting research into the performance of an example electric VTOL (eVTOL) aircraft as a part of the Revolutionary Vertical Lift Technology (RVLT) project. Over the course of this research, many aspects including the development of energy absorbing components, the evaluation of seating systems, the development of advanced finite element material model systems and the acquisition of full-scale vehicle impact data were investigated. The report will discuss aspects related to the acquisition of full-scale vehicle data which occurred in the form of a full-scale impact test conducted in the Summer of 2025. This test was on a NASA designed Lift+Cruise composite cabin test article and represented a partial capstone in the entirety of previous eVTOL research conducted for the project. In this test, a variety of experiments were included in order to investigate the effect of a full-scale environment on the experiment results. In parallel, the development of a computational impact model to simulate the full-scale test will be discussed in this report. A model of the Lift+Cruise test article was developed utilizing data collected from previous sub- and full-scale test data and then simulated in the current test environment. The model development, its use in pre-test predictions, and its use in post-test correlation will all be presented. This report will present the test data acquired from the Lift+Cruise test and document several of the results obtained. One intended result is to determine the effect of a complex full-scale crash impact on the identification of occupant injury risk within seat and vehicle designs. A second intended result is to determine whether high-fidelity models can be used with some confidence in the prediction of test events and can allow for additional test cases to be simulated without the need of having to conduct additional tests. The overall goal of the test is to provide the community with data that can be used for design, development or certification efforts, along with providing data on what an example eVTOL crash incident could entail.

energy storage systems↗
DOE OSTI2023

Study of Storage Requirements and Costs for Shaping Renewables and Nuclear Energy (FY23 Summary Report)

To decarbonize electricity generation primarily by using wind and solar resources, it is likely that additional low (or zero) carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) alternatives will be required for ensuring a reliable electricity supply. This study extends the work and modeling framework that we consolidated in FY 2022, by assessing the zero-CO 2 pathways of a Texas power system in which the availability of variable renewable energy (VRE), nuclear energy, and energy storage types (i.e., battery and thermal energy storage [TES]) are considered the sole resources available for expansion. Using the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) and Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) frameworks, this study investigates the market of two nuclear energy technologies (i.e., large light-water reactors [LWRs] and LWR-type small modular reactors [SMRs]) under two plausible storage coupling scenarios (i.e., electric coupling and direct thermal coupling). We also explore optimal environments for nuclear energy deployment, and identify key performance characteristics that make nuclear energy economically viable in areas with significant intermittent energy sources. Our analysis encompasses 24 cases. We model the least-cost grid systems, highlight the potential for a coupled LWR-TES approach, and utilize SMRs to achieve deep decarbonization in an affordable, technically feasible manner. We also examine seasonal variations in balancing electricity supply and demand, and account for varying performance, costs, and grid constraints. Overall, the findings of our modeling afford valuable insights for supporting future technology investment decisions in the energy sector.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exploring the Future Energy Value of Long-Duration Energy Storage

Long-duration energy storage is commonly viewed as a key technology for providing flexibility to the grid and broader energy systems over a multidecadal time frame. However, prior work has typically used present-day grid infrastructures to characterize the relationship between the duration and arbitrage value of storage in electricity markets. This study leverages established National Renewable Energy Laboratory grid planning and operations tools, analysis, and data to execute a price-taker model of an energy storage system for several 8760 h price series representative of current and future contiguous United States grid infrastructures with varying shares of variable renewable energy (VRE). We find that the total value of energy storage typically increases with VRE shares, but any increase in the relative value of longer storage durations over time depends on the region and grid mix. Some regions see incremental value increasing notably, up to 20–40 h in 2050, while others do not. The negative effect of lower roundtrip efficiency on value is also found to be scenario-dependent, with the energy value in higher VRE scenarios being less sensitive to roundtrip efficiency and more supportive of longer storage durations. Long-duration storage value and deployment potential are a function of evolving electricity sector infrastructure, markets, and policy, making it critical to consistently revisit potential long-duration storage contributions to the grid.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2010

Optimizing Air Transportation Service to Metroplex Airports: Analysis Using the Airline Schedule Optimization Model (ASOM) - Par 2

The air transportation system is a significant driver of the U.S. economy, providing safe, affordable, and rapid transportation. During the past three decades airspace and airport capacity has not grown in step with demand for air transportation; the failure to increase capacity at the same rate as the growth in demand results in unreliable service and systemic delay. This report describes the results of an analysis of airline strategic decision-making that affects geographic access, economic access, and airline finances, extending the analysis of these factors using historic data (from Part 1 of the report). The Airline Schedule Optimization Model (ASOM) was used to evaluate how exogenous factors (passenger demand, airline operating costs, and airport capacity limits) affect geographic access (markets-served, scheduled flights, aircraft size), economic access (airfares), airline finances (profit), and air transportation efficiency (aircraft size). This analysis captures the impact of the implementation of airport capacity limits, as well as the effect of increased hedged fuel prices, which serve as a proxy for increased costs per flight that might occur if auctions or congestion pricing are imposed; also incorporated are demand elasticity curves based on historical data that provide information about how passenger demand is affected by airfare changes.

Donoue, George↗