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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2009

Photometric Studies of GEO Debris

The photometric signature of a debris object can be useful in determining what the physical characteristics of a piece of debris are. We report on optical observations in multiple filters of debris at geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO). Our sample is taken from GEO objects discovered in a survey with the University of Michigan's 0.6-m aperture Schmidt telescope MODEST (for Michigan Orbital DEbris Survey Telescope), and then followed up in real-time with the SMARTS (Small and Medium Aperture Research Telescope System) 0.9-m at CTIO for orbits and photometry. Our goal is to determine 6 parameter orbits and measure colors for all objects fainter than R = 15 th magnitude that are discovered in the MODEST survey. At this magnitude the distribution of observed angular rates changes significantly from that of brighter objects. There are two objectives: 1. Estimate the orbital distribution of objects selected on the basis of two observational criteria: brightness (magnitude) and angular rates. 2. Obtain magnitudes and colors in standard astronomical filters (BVRI) for comparison with reflectance spectra of likely spacecraft materials. What is the faint debris likely to be? In this paper we report on the photometric results. For a sample of 50 objects, more than 90 calibrated sequences of R-B-V-I-R magnitudes have been obtained with the CTIO 0.9-m. For objects that do not show large brightness variations, the colors are largely redder than solar in both B-R and R-I. The width of the color distribution may be intrinsic to the nature of the surfaces, but also could be that we are seeing irregularly shaped objects and measuring the colors at different times with just one telescope. For a smaller sample of objects we have observed with synchronized CCD cameras on the two telescopes. The CTIO 0.9-m observes in B, and MODEST in R. The CCD cameras are electronically linked together so that the start time and duration of observations are the same to better than 50 milliseconds. Thus the B-R color is a true measure of the surface of the debris piece facing the telescopes for that observation. Any change in color reflects a real change in the debris surface.

Seitzer, Patrick↗
NASA NTRS2011

Large Eddy Simulation Study for Fluid Disintegration and Mixing

A new modeling approach is based on the concept of large eddy simulation (LES) within which the large scales are computed and the small scales are modeled. The new approach is expected to retain the fidelity of the physics while also being computationally efficient. Typically, only models for the small-scale fluxes of momentum, species, and enthalpy are used to reintroduce in the simulation the physics lost because the computation only resolves the large scales. These models are called subgrid (SGS) models because they operate at a scale smaller than the LES grid. In a previous study of thermodynamically supercritical fluid disintegration and mixing, additional small-scale terms, one in the momentum and one in the energy conservation equations, were identified as requiring modeling. These additional terms were due to the tight coupling between dynamics and real-gas thermodynamics. It was inferred that if these terms would not be modeled, the high density-gradient magnitude regions, experimentally identified as a characteristic feature of these flows, would not be accurately predicted without the additional term in the momentum equation; these high density-gradient magnitude regions were experimentally shown to redistribute turbulence in the flow. And it was also inferred that without the additional term in the energy equation, the heat flux magnitude could not be accurately predicted; the heat flux to the wall of combustion devices is a crucial quantity that determined necessary wall material properties. The present work involves situations where only the term in the momentum equation is important. Without this additional term in the momentum equation, neither the SGS-flux constant-coefficient Smagorinsky model nor the SGS-flux constant-coefficient Gradient model could reproduce in LES the pressure field or the high density-gradient magnitude regions; the SGS-flux constant- coefficient Scale-Similarity model was the most successful in this endeavor although not totally satisfactory. With a model for the additional term in the momentum equation, the predictions of the constant-coefficient Smagorinsky and constant-coefficient Scale-Similarity models were improved to a certain extent; however, most of the improvement was obtained for the Gradient model. The previously derived model and a newly developed model for the additional term in the momentum equation were both tested, with the new model proving even more successful than the previous model at reproducing the high density-gradient magnitude regions. Several dynamic SGS-flux models, in which the SGS-flux model coefficient is computed as part of the simulation, were tested in conjunction with the new model for this additional term in the momentum equation. The most successful dynamic model was a "mixed" model combining the Smagorinsky and Gradient models. This work is directly applicable to simulations of gas turbine engines (aeronautics) and rocket engines (astronautics).

Bellan, Josette↗
NASA NTRS2014

Automated Optical Meteor Fluxes and Preliminary Results of Major Showers

NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office (MEO) recently established a two‐station system to calculate daily automated meteor fluxes in the millimeter‐size‐range for both single‐station and double‐station meteors. The cameras each consist of a 17 mm focal length Schneider lens (f/0.95) on a Watec 902H2 Ultimate CCD video camera, producing a 21.7x15.5 degree field of view. This configuration sees meteors down to a magnitude of +6. This paper outlines the concepts of the system, the hardware and software, and results of 3,000+ orbits from the first 18 months of operations. Video from the cameras are run through ASGARD (All Sky and Guided Automatic Real‐time Detection), which performs the meteor detection/photometry, and invokes MILIG and MORB (Borovicka 1990) codes to determine the trajectory, speed, and orbit of the meteor. A subroutine in ASGARD allows for approximate shower identification in single‐station detections. The ASGARD output is used in routines to calculate the flux. Before a flux can be calculated, a weather algorithm indicates if sky conditions are clear enough to calculate fluxes, at which point a limiting magnitude algorithm is employed. The limiting stellar magnitude is found using astrometry.net (Lang et al. 2012) to identify stars and translated to the corresponding shower and sporadic limiting meteor magnitude. It is found every 10 minutes and is able to react to quickly changing sky conditions. The extensive testing of these results on the Geminids and Eta Aquariids is shown. The flux involves dividing the number of meteors by the collecting area of the system, over the time interval for which that collecting area is valid. The flux algorithm employed here differs from others currently in use in that it does not make the gross oversimplication of choosing a single height to calculate the collection area of the system. In the MEO system, the volume is broken up into a set of height intervals, with the collecting areas determined by the position of the active shower or sporadic source radiant. The flux per height interval is calculated and summed to obtain the total meteor flux. Both single station and double station fluxes are currently found daily. Geminid fluxes on the peak night in 2012 (12‐14‐2012) were 0.058 meteors/km2/hr as found with double‐station meteors and 0.057 meteors/ km2/hr as found with single‐station meteors, to a limiting magnitude of +6.5. Both of those numbers are in agreement with the well‐calibrated fluxes from the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar. Along with flux algorithms and initial flux results, presented will be results from the first 18 months of operation, covering 3,000+ meteoroid orbits.

Blaauw, R.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Using Dynamically Downscaled Climate Model Outputs to Inform Projections of Extreme Precipitation Events

Many of the storms that generate damaging floods are caused by locally intense, sub-daily precipitation, yet the spatial and temporal resolution of the most widely available climate model outputs are both too coarse to simulate these events. Thus there is often a disconnect between the nature of the events that cause damaging floods and the models used to project how climate change might influence their magnitude. This could be a particular problem when developing scenarios to inform future storm water management options under future climate scenarios. In this study we sought to close this gap, using sub-daily outputs from the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) from each of the nine climate regions in the United States. Specifically, we asked 1) whether WRF outputs projected consistent patterns of change for sub-daily and daily precipitation extremes; and 2) whether this dynamically downscaled model projected different magnitudes of change for 3-hourly vs 24-hourly extreme events. We extracted annual maximum values for 3-hour through 24-hour precipitation totals from an 11-year time series of hindcast (1995-2005) and mid-century (2045-2055) climate, and calculated the direction and magnitude of change for 3-hour and 24-hour extreme events over this timeframe. The model results project that the magnitude of both 3-hour and 24-hour events will increase over most regions of the United States, but there was no clear or consistent difference in the relative magnitudes of change for sub-daily vs daily events.

Climate models↗
NASA NTRS2016

Improving Photometric Calibration of Meteor Video Camera Systems

We present the results of new calibration tests performed by the NASA Meteoroid Environment Oce (MEO) designed to help quantify and minimize systematic uncertainties in meteor photometry from video camera observations. These systematic uncertainties can be categorized by two main sources: an imperfect understanding of the linearity correction for the MEO's Watec 902H2 Ultimate video cameras and uncertainties in meteor magnitudes arising from transformations between the Watec camera's Sony EX-View HAD bandpass and the bandpasses used to determine reference star magnitudes. To address the rst point, we have measured the linearity response of the MEO's standard meteor video cameras using two independent laboratory tests on eight cameras. Our empirically determined linearity correction is critical for performing accurate photometry at low camera intensity levels. With regards to the second point, we have calculated synthetic magnitudes in the EX bandpass for reference stars. These synthetic magnitudes enable direct calculations of the meteor's photometric ux within the camera band-pass without requiring any assumptions of its spectral energy distribution. Systematic uncertainties in the synthetic magnitudes of individual reference stars are estimated at 0:20 mag, and are limited by the available spectral information in the reference catalogs. These two improvements allow for zero-points accurate to 0:05 􀀀 0:10 mag in both ltered and un ltered camera observations with no evidence for lingering systematics.

Ehlert, Steven↗
NASA NTRS2017

Inrush Current Suppression Circuit and Method for Controlling When a Load May Be Fully Energized

A circuit and method for controlling when a load may be fully energized includes directing electrical current through a current limiting resistor that has a first terminal connected to a source terminal of a field effect transistor (FET), and a second terminal connected to a drain terminal of the FET. The gate voltage magnitude on a gate terminal of the FET is varied, whereby current flow through the FET is increased while current flow through the current limiting resistor is simultaneously decreased. A determination is made as to when the gate voltage magnitude on the gate terminal is equal to or exceeds a predetermined reference voltage magnitude, and the load is enabled to be fully energized when the gate voltage magnitude is equal to or exceeds the predetermined reference voltage magnitude.

Schwerman, Paul↗
NASA NTRS2017

Improving Photometric Calibration of Meteor Video Camera Systems

We present the results of new calibration tests performed by the NASA Meteoroid Environment Office (MEO) designed to help quantify and minimize systematic uncertainties in meteor photometry from video camera observations. These systematic uncertainties can be categorized by two main sources: an imperfect understanding of the linearity correction for the MEO's Watec 902H2 Ultimate video cameras and uncertainties in meteor magnitudes arising from transformations between the Watec camera's Sony EX-View HAD bandpass and the bandpasses used to determine reference star magnitudes. To address the first point, we have measured the linearity response of the MEO's standard meteor video cameras using two independent laboratory tests on eight cameras. Our empirically determined linearity correction is critical for performing accurate photometry at low camera intensity levels. With regards to the second point, we have calculated synthetic magnitudes in the EX bandpass for reference stars. These synthetic magnitudes enable direct calculations of the meteor's photometric flux within the camera bandpass without requiring any assumptions of its spectral energy distribution. Systematic uncertainties in the synthetic magnitudes of individual reference stars are estimated at approx. 0.20 mag, and are limited by the available spectral information in the reference catalogs. These two improvements allow for zero-points accurate to 0.05 - 0.10 mag in both filtered and unfiltered camera observations with no evidence for lingering systematics. These improvements are essential to accurately measuring photometric masses of individual meteors and source mass indexes.

Steven Ehlert↗
NASA NTRS2023

Interchangeable Use of GNSS and Seismic Data for Rapid Earthquake Characterization: 2021 Chignik Earthquake, Alaska

Earthquake magnitude estimation using peak ground velocities (PGV) derived from 13 Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) data has shown promise for rapid 14 characterization of damaging earthquakes. Here we examine the feasibility of using 15 GNSS-derived velocity waveforms as interchangeable data for ground motion estimation 16 and other products that typically rely on strong-motion seismic records. Our study 17 compares PGVs derived from high-rate GNSS to those computed from high-rate seismic 18 records (strong-motion and velocity), at co- and closely-located stations. The recent 2021 Manuscript Click here to access/download;Manuscript;Manuscript_Final.docx 2 19 Mw 8.2 Chignik earthquake in Alaska that was recorded on co-located GNSS and strong20 motion sensors provides the perfect opportunity to compare the two data streams and 21 their application in rapid response. The Chignik velocity records appear almost identical 22 at co-located GNSS and strong-motion stations when observed at frequencies < 0.25 Hz. 23 GNSS and strong-motion derived velocity data are further employed to generate rapid 24 estimates of PGV-derived moment magnitudes for the earthquake. The moment 25 magnitude estimates from GNSS and joint GNSS/seismic data are within ~ ±0.4 26 magnitude units (Fang et al., 2020) of the final magnitude (Mw 8.2). ShakeMaps 27 generated for the 2021 Chignik earthquake using GNSS and seismic PGVs show notable 28 agreement between them, and show negligible shifts in PGV contours when co-/closely 29 located GNSS and seismic stations are substituted for one another. Therefore, we posit 30 that GNSS is a powerful alternative or addition to seismic data and vice versa.

Earthquake rapid response↗
DOE OSTI2021

Accurate surface estimation from high-resolution 3D microwave images

Active millimeter and microwave imaging techniques can be used to create a high-resolution 3D image volume of a target’s reflectivity. Millimeter-wave imaging is commonly used for personnel security screening and numerous other applications. Backprojection based image reconstruction techniques form a 3D complex-valued volume. The complex-valued volume is commonly reduced to a real-valued volume by taking the magnitude. For anomaly detection and cross image registration of an object it is beneficial to generate an accurate representation of an object’s surface. Extracting a smooth and accurate surface from a magnitude only image is challenging. One difficulty is the magnitude image has limited resolution in the depth direction which normally limits precision to a moderate fraction of the depth resolution. Another difficulty is that the magnitude of the image depends heavily on the geometry and orientation of the object being imaged. The phase information in a complex-valued image volume provides a means to decouple the magnitude of the image from the geometry of an object and provide precision much finer than the depth resolution would indicate. This enables the generation of a smooth and accurate point cloud representation of the surface of an imaged object. A method to extract a point cloud from the phase information in a 3D complex-valued millimeter-wave image volume is developed and results with simulated and experimental data are presented.

Clark, Richard T.↗
DOE OSTI2022

High-Precision Characterization of Seismicity from the 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Volcanic Eruption

The earthquake swarm accompanying the January 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) volcanic eruption includes a large number of posteruptive moderate-magnitude seismic events and presents a unique opportunity to use remote monitoring methods to characterize and compare seismic activity with other historical caldera-forming eruptions. We compute improved epicentroid locations, magnitudes, and regional moment tensors of seismic events from this earthquake swarm using regional to teleseismic surface-wave cross correlation and waveform modeling. Precise relative locations of 91 seismic events derived from 59,047 intermediate-period Rayleigh- and Love-wave cross-correlation measurements collapse into a small area surrounding the volcano and exhibit a southeastern time-dependent migration. Regional moment tensors and observed waveforms indicate that these events have a similar mechanism and exhibit a strong positive compensated linear vector dipole component. Precise relative magnitudes agree with regional moment tensor moment magnitude ($M_w$) estimates while also showing that event sizes and frequency increase during the days after the eruption followed by a period of several weeks of less frequent seismicity of a similar size. The combined information from visual observation and early geologic models indicate that the observed seismicity may be the result of a complex series of events that occurred after the explosive eruption on 15 January, possibly involving rapid resupply of the magma chamber shortly after the eruption and additional faulting and instability in the following weeks. In addition, we identify and characterize an $M_w$ 4.5 event five days before the paroxysmal explosion on 15 January, indicating that additional seismic events preceding the main eruption could have been identified with improved local monitoring. As a result, our analysis of the HTHH eruption sequence demonstrates the value of potentially utilizing teleseismic surface-wave cross correlation and waveform modeling methods to assist in the detailed analysis of remote volcanic eruption sequences.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Observed Inefficiency of Explosions to Produce Large Aftershocks: Båth’s Law for Explosions is 2.5

Underground explosions are observed to produce fewer and smaller aftershocks than similar size earthquakes. The seismic magnitude difference $Δm_x$ between an explosion and its largest aftershock is an expression of Båth’s law for explosions. Based on an analysis of a compilation of aftershock studies from Soviet testing at the Semipalatinsk test site in Kazakhstan and observations from American testing at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS), here we find that the average magnitude difference for explosions $\overline{Δm_x}$ is about 2.5. Based on the NNSS data, two standard deviations of $Δm_x$ is about 1.5. In all the cases studied, from ton to megaton yield, from shallow to overburied depth, and chemical or nuclear source, no explosion aftershock has been larger than the explosion that preceded it. In fact, the two events at the NNSS with the largest aftershock magnitudes relative to the explosion are associated with the collapse of the cavity created by the explosion. This is similar to observations from North Korean testing at the Punggye-ri Test Site, where the largest seismic event following the test is attributed to the collapse after the 2017 explosion and is from 0.8 to 2 magnitude units less than the mainshock.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Insights into Methodologies and Operational Details of Resource Adequacy Assessment: A Case Study with Application to a Broader Flexibility Framework

Assessing and maintaining resource adequacy (RA) is a core pillar of power systems. However, recent changes in the physical makeup of these systems and the conditions under which these systems must operate have yielded a renewed interest in the methods, metrics, and assumptions that underpin RA assessments. In this paper, we systematically explore a wide range of RA modeling dimensions, including: the objective function and level of operational detail in the underlying model formulation; the quantity (look-ahead) and quality (accuracy) of data that is available for making operational decisions within those models; and the physical configuration of solar photovoltaics (PV) with battery storage hybrid resources. We apply a set of probabilistic RA tools and production cost modeling tools to a realistic test system based loosely on a future Electric Reliability Council of Texas power system dominated by solar PV resources. Under the assumptions of our system and models, we find that multi-stage probabilistic assessments may provide a more robust evaluation of RA by capturing a wider range of operational and system interactions, but this comes at a computational cost of 1-2 orders of magnitude longer run time depending on the specific configuration. In addition, the information on thermal generator availability impacts RA performance by an order of magnitude more than solar resource forecasts, which is driven by the comparatively larger magnitude of thermal outages than solar forecast errors within our test system. Lastly, the flexibility provided by hybrid and other resources can help reduce system load-shedding event frequencies and enable the system to be more robust to inaccurate forecast information, and alternative hybrid inverter sizes can impact RA levels by 1-2 orders of magnitude. Our results point to the importance of a broader flexibility framework to describe the interaction between (1) flexibility "supply" from both physical resource capabilities and operational constraints considered in the modeling, and (2) flexibility "demand" from forecast errors, thermal generator outages, and other sources of uncertainty, as well as their RA impacts. Results are likely sensitive to the system buildout explored; future work could consider additional system configurations and conditions.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,POWER TRANSMI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Feasibility study for test rig assessments of fish passage conditions in a Kaplan turbine

The assessment of fish passage conditions in hydroelectric turbines consists of identifying and quantifying physical magnitudes leading to increased risks of injury of fish passing through turbines in operation. Such assessments are usually carried out either with the use of computer-based methods during design or with field testing of live fish and sensors passing through prototypes. A method in between consists of test rig experimentation, which is critical for testing fish-focused design concepts and offers the opportunity for implementing the most effective design measures for improved fish survivability. However, fish-related assessments in test rigs are not sufficiently documented for industrial applications. This work presents the main findings of an experimental campaign to quantify fish-related hydraulic magnitudes in a physical model of a Kaplan turbine in a commercial test rig. Two operating conditions were tested by releasing miniaturized autonomous sensor devices (termed Sensor Fish Mini) at the turbine intake flow, passing them through the runner in motion and recovering them at the draft tube exit. During passage, time series of acceleration, absolute pressure and rotational velocity were recorded. The recordings were then interpreted to determine the magnitude and likely location of hydraulic stressors hazardous to fish. The statistical tests on the reported measurements indicated that low pressure, collisions on the runner and rotations in the draft tube were not different between the two tested operating points. On the other hand, pressure drop and collision rates on the distributor differed considerably as a function of net head. The outcomes of this investigation showed that test rig evaluations of fish-related properties with Sensor Fish Mini can contribute to an evidence-based development of turbine geometries designed for providing safer passage conditions. Future work will investigate the scaling of test rig measurements to hydraulically equivalent magnitudes in the prototype and their biological consequences.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Detailed mixing measurements from single-hole converging ECN injectors using Rayleigh scattering

Time resolved liquid and vapor fields of dodecane and oxymethylene ethers are measured from Spray A-3 and Spray D using high speed Rayleigh scattering and diffuse back illumination at the Engine Combustion Network (ECN) Spray A condition of 900 K and 22.8 kg/m 3 . Global quantities including mixture fraction, vapor and liquid penetration, as well as spreading angle are measured. The mixture fraction fields and vapor penetration profiles are well predicted by the 1-D Musculus-Kattke model. The mixture fraction field and vapor penetration from Spray A-3 are similar to those measured from Spray A in previous works. Spray D exhibits higher mixture fraction fields and vapor penetration due to its larger nozzle diameter. The quasi-steady mixture fraction fields from these injectors scale well when distance from the injector is normalized by the nozzle diameter. The turbulent dissipation structures were also analyzed based on the orientation, thickness, and magnitude of the mixing layers. Furthermore, the orientation and thickness are similar to other measurements in atmospheric gas jets, while the magnitude is lower. The thickness and magnitude are subject to uncertainties due to limitations in the imaging resolution of the system but still provide an order of magnitude as a useful reference for comparison against computational fluid dynamic simulations.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Macrovoid resolved simulations of transport through HPRO relevant membrane geometries

Modeling the transport properties such as diffusivity and permeability of high pressure reverse osmosis (HPRO) membranes is critical for the selection and manufacture of membranes suitable for operation under high pressure. These properties can be significantly affected by the changes in heterogeneous pore structures due to compaction. Here, the modeling platform presented in this work resolves the two scale porosity in HPRO relevant membranes. A synthetic membrane geometry is constructed based on available experimental visualizations of pore structures. The simulations directly capture the flow channeling that results from a combination of material properties and geometric features of the macrovoids. A parametric study is presented to account for the transition of flow characteristics from a material governed regime to a macrovoid governed regime. Permeability of the membrane is evaluated using the simulation data and compared with an existing model that scales with the square of tortuosity over a range of material properties. The model is found to perform well under a narrow range of tortuosity while deviating from the calculated permeabilities at extreme conditions. The effective permeability of the membrane is found to vary by at least two orders of magnitude between the two flow regimes. It is also observed that tortuosity is a bounded property with its upper limit determined by the macrovoid geometry. Consequently, the tortuosity based correlations fail near a flow regime that is mainly governed by the macrovoids. The modeled permeability can be more than an order of magnitude smaller than the simulation result. A new model based on flux-weighted porosity of a membrane is introduced and its correlation with tortuosity is studied. The model agrees with the simulated data as, in addition to tortuosity, it also accounts for the flux partition within and outside the flow channels. Such correlations enable extending the existing understanding of flow characteristics to enhance predictability of porous media models.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

The effect of current and lambda on white-etch-crack failures

White etching cracks (WECs) have been associated with premature failure of wind turbine roller bearings. Various drivers for the generation of WECs have been identified such as loading conditions, slip, steel quality, lubrication, hydrogen embrittlement, corrosion fatigue cracking, and stray electrical currents passing through the surface. Here, in this work, a benchtop test rig utilizing a three-ring-on-roller test configuration was used to investigate the effect of electrical current and operation in different lubricating regimes, defined by lambda (λ), on high-quality bearing steel samples tested in a commercially available power transmission EP gear lubricant. It was observed that there is an inverse correlation between the magnitude of electric current applied to the ring/ roller system and time-to-failure. Higher current magnitudes lead to shorter time-to-failure than lower current magnitudes, with macropitting as the main failure mode. Sub-surface investigation revealed the presence of WECs in all cases. For the same current magnitude, tests conducted in boundary and mixed lubrication regimes showed that time-to-failure increased as lambda increased, and the tests resulted in WEC related macropits, whereas tests conducted in near-hydrodynamic regime resulted in surface damage with no macropit. It was also noted that a shift toward near-hydrodynamic lubrication resulted in a distinct surface distress on the roller surface. Furthermore, there seems to be a transition in the mixed regime during which the surface distress occurred. The damage on the surface of the test samples resembled non-spatially, periodic, groove-like corrugations and, in some cases, crater-like depressions. Sub-surface imaging, performed by sequential sectioning, revealed the presence of WECs in all cases, and broad, branching cracks that were more prevalent under the more severe boundary conditions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Radiation-Enhanced Anion Transport in Hematite

The influence of radiation-induced (1 MeV energy H+ to ~0.1 dpa at 450°C), non-equilibrium point defect populations on mass transport is studied with an integrated campaign of experimental and theoretical methods. Using epitaxial thin films of hematite with embedded 18O tracer layers and nanoscale atom probe tomography measurements, it is shown that anion self-diffusion is enhanced by at least 2 orders of magnitude under irradiation compared to thermal diffusion alone. Complementary scanning transmission electron microscopy of vacuum annealed specimens, reveals associated microstructural changes in the oxide films, including local phase transformation to Fe3O4 and the development of nanoscale voids from vacancy coalescence. Point defect formation and migration energies were computed from density functional theory and applied within the context of chemical rate theory to analyze contributions from both interstitial and vacancy mechanisms to self-diffusion in thermal and irradiation conditions. Comparisons are made between calculated, literature and newly measured self-diffusion values, revealing good agreement on the magnitude of radiation-enhanced anion diffusion. Further, the model suggests a transition from vacancy to interstitialcy mechanisms at low temperatures and high oxygen activity, consistent with the varied activation energies reported from prior studies.

iron oxides, isotopic tracers, atom probe tomograp↗
DOE OSTI2022

Short–Term Forecasting of Wind Gusts at Airports Across CONUS Using Machine Learning

Short–term forecasting of wind gusts, particularly those of higher intensity, is of great societal importance but is challenging due to the presence of multiple gust generation mechanisms. Wind gust observations from eight high–passenger–volume airports across the continental United States (CONUS) are summarized and used to develop predictive models of wind gust occurrence and magnitude. These short–term (same hour) forecast models are built using multiple logistic and linear regression, as well as artificial neural networks (ANNs) of varying complexity. A suite of 19 upper–air predictors drawn from the ERA5 reanalysis and an autoregressive (AR) term are used. Stepwise procedures instruct predictor selection, and resampling is used to quantify model stability. All models are developed separately for the warm (April–September) and cold (October–March) seasons. Results show that ANNs of 3–5 hidden layers (HLs) generally exhibit higher hit rates than logistic regression models and also improve skill with respect to wind gust magnitudes. However, deeper networks with more HLs increase false alarm rates in occurrence models and mean absolute error in magnitude models due to model overfitting. For model skill, inclusion of the AR term is critical while the majority of the remaining skill derives from wind speeds and lapse rates. A predictive ceiling is also clearly demonstrated, particularly for the strong and damaging gust magnitudes, which appears to be partially due to ERA5 predictor characteristics and the presence of mixed wind climates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗