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At least 415 records · Page 23

Photoredox Catalysis with Spin Magnetic Field Effects: A Scheme for Chiral Resolution

Quantities that break both mirror symmetry and time-reversal symmetry, such as the orbital angular momentum, are known to connect molecular chirality with an applied magnetic field. This concept has led to observations such as magneto-chiral dichroism and chirality-induced spin selectivity (CISS). However, being small, these effects often require additional amplification procedures such as flow chemistry to achieve bulk enantioseparation. In this work, we demonstrate how the magnetic field effect on photogenerated radical pairs, which also breaks time-reversal symmetry, can be harnessed for enantiopurification. Fundamental to this process is the collective decay of the singlet and triplet radical-pair states made possible by an applied magnetic field. Because opposite enantiomers exhibit spin-orbit coupling matrix elements of opposite signs, the singlet and triplet decay channels interfere constructively in one enantiomer. Meanwhile, molecules of the other enantiomer are funnelled into the first enantiomer through excited-state chirality inversion, achieving (dynamic kinetic) chiral resolution. Using an axially chiral binaphthyl derivative and a borane photosensitizer as prototype, we predict an appreciable enantiomeric excess (e.e.) of 90% to be possible at steady state, attained within hundreds of milliseconds when irradiated by a laser. Importantly, our analytical results showcase regimes of perfect enantioselectivity (100% e.e.), accessible by further chemical optimization of the photosensitizer for which general strategies are discussed. Altogether, this work illustrates a so-far untapped but powerful control knob for photoredox catalysis based on spin chemistry principles.

Magnetic properties↗

Unusual plastic strain-induced phase transformation phenomena in silicon

Pressure-induced phase transformations (PTs) in Si, the most important electronic material, have been broadly studied, whereas strain-induced PTs have never been studied in situ. Here, we reveal in situ various important plastic strain-induced PT phenomena. A correlation between the direct and inverse Hall-Petch effect of particle size on yield strength and pressure for strain-induced PT is predicted theoretically and confirmed experimentally for Si-I→Si-II PT. For 100 nm particles, the strain-induced PT Si-I→Si-II initiates at 0.3 GPa under both compression and shear while it starts at 16.2 GPa under hydrostatic conditions. The Si-I→Si-III PT starts at 0.6 GPa but does not occur under hydrostatic pressure. Pressure in small Si-II and Si-III regions of micron and 100 nm particles is ~5–7 GPa higher than in Si-I. For 100 nm Si, a sequence of Si-I → I + II → I + II + III PT is observed, and the coexistence of four phases, Si-I, II, III, and XI, is found under torsion. Retaining Si-II and single-phase Si-III at ambient pressure and obtaining reverse Si-II→Si-I PT demonstrates the possibilities of manipulating different synthetic paths. The obtained results corroborate the elaborated dislocation pileup-based mechanism and have numerous applications for developing economic defect-induced synthesis of nanostructured materials, surface treatment (polishing, turning, etc.), and friction.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Infalling ultra-faint dwarfs as emissaries of the Axiverse

Recent discoveries of ultra-faint dwarf galaxies (UFDs) infalling onto the Milky Way, namely Leo K & M at r ≃ 450 kpc, considerably strengthens the case that UFDs constitute a distinct galaxy class that is inherently smaller and fainter, and metal-poorer than the classical dwarf spheroidals (dSph). This distinction is at odds with the inherent continuity of galaxy halo masses formed under scale-free gravity for any standard dark-matter (DM) model. Here, we show that distinct galaxy classes do evolve in cosmological simulations of multiple light bosons representing the “Axiverse” proposal of string theory, where a discrete mass spectrum of axions is generically predicted to span many decades in mass. In this context, the observed UFD class we show corresponds to a relatively heavy boson of 3 × 10 −21 eV, including Leo K & M, whereas a lighter axion of 10 −22 eV comprises the bulk of DM in all larger galaxies including the dSphs. Although Leo M is larger in size than Leo K, we predict its velocity dispersion to be smaller ( ≃ 1.7 km/s) than that of Leo K ( ≃ 4.5 km/s) because of the inverse de Broglie scale dependence on momentum. This scenario can be definitively tested using millisecond pulsars close to the Galactic center, where the Compton frequencies of the heavy and light bosons imprint monotone timing residuals that may be detected by the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) on timescales of approximately one week and four months, respectively.

dark matter↗

AI-enabled high-resolution scanning coherent diffraction imaging

Ptychographic imaging is a powerful means of imaging beyond the resolution limits of typical x-ray optics. Capturing recovered images from raw ptychographic data, however, requires the solution of an inverse problem, namely, phase retrieval. Phase retrieval algorithms are computationally expensive, which precludes real-time imaging. In this work, we propose PtychoNN, an approach to solve the ptychography data inversion problem based on a deep convolutional neural network. We demonstrate how the proposed method can be used to predict real-space structure and phase at each scan point solely from the corresponding far-field diffraction data. Our results demonstrate the practical application of machine learning to recover high fidelity amplitude and phase contrast images of a real sample hundreds of times faster than current ptychography reconstruction packages. Furthermore, by overcoming the constraints of iterative model-based methods, we can significantly relax sampling constraints on data acquisition while still producing an excellent image of the sample. Besides drastically accelerating acquisition and analysis, this capability has profound implications for the imaging of dose sensitive, dynamic, and extremely voluminous samples.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Manifold Learning-Based Polynomial Chaos Expansions for High-Dimensional Surrogate Models

In this work we introduce a manifold learning-based method for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in systems describing complex spatiotemporal processes. Our first objective is to identify the embedding of a set of high-dimensional data representing quantities of interest of the computational or analytical model. For this purpose, we employ Grassmannian diffusion maps, a two-step nonlinear dimension reduction technique which allows us to reduce the dimensionality of the data and identify meaningful geometric descriptions in a parsimonious and inexpensive manner. Polynomial chaos expansion is then used to construct a mapping between the stochastic input parameters and the diffusion coordinates of the reduced space. An adaptive clustering technique is proposed to identify an optimal number of clusters of points in the latent space. The similarity of points allows us to construct a number of geometric harmonic emulators which are finally utilized as a set of inexpensive pretrained models to perform an inverse map of realizations of latent features to the ambient space and thus perform accurate out-of-sample predictions. Thus, the proposed method acts as an encoder-decoder system which is able to automatically handle very high-dimensional data while simultaneously operating successfully in the small-data regime. The method is demonstrated on two benchmark problems and on a system of advection-diffusion-reaction equations which model a first-order chemical reaction between two species. In all test cases, the proposed method is able to achieve highly accurate approximations which ultimately lead to the significant acceleration of UQ tasks.

42 ENGINEERING↗

High Performance PEFC Electrode Structures

Raytheon Technologies Research Center (RTRC) in collaboration with Ion Power Inc. and the University of Arkansas at Little Rock and the FC-PAD consortium executed a project that: (1) developed comprehensive models of oxygen and proton transport in cathode catalyst layers that provided new insights about losses associated with reducing platinum loading to 0.1 mg/cm 2 , (2) designed, fabricated, characterized, and tested cells featuring carbon-supported catalyst layers with low platinum loadings that met efficiency and power density targets set forth by the Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Technology Office, and (3) designed, fabricated, characterized, and tested novel catalyst structures. The modeling efforts produced eight scientific publications that shared new descriptions of oxygen and proton transport in catalyst layers with the broader technical community. The key physical insights from the models are expressed in straightforward algebraic expressions, facilitating easy adoption by other researchers. The models developed during the project explain why resistance to oxygen transport is inversely proportional to interfacial area of platinum – an observation that eluded quantitative explanation for a decade. The models quantitatively predict polarization when measured morphological parameters and transport properties are input. Membrane-electrode assemblies made during the project met stated goals for current at high voltage and power density at rated voltage for transportation fuel cells at the end of budget period 2. High performance was achieved by developing a diffusion layer with low resistance to oxygen transport and a PtCo/C cathode catalyst layer capable of supporting rapid proton and oxygen transport. The project was subsequently directed to curtail experimental work and focus on modeling during budget period 3. Ion Power Inc. developed new expertise in fabricating catalyst layers containing platinum-cobalt catalysts, and processing very thin membranes. The University of Arkansas at Little Rock developed novel nanocolumnar self-supported thin film electrocatalysts that can be grown on carbon supports using a simple high pressure sputter deposition method. The nanocolumnar microstructure provides adequate surface-to-volume ratio for efficient platinum utilization, and the conformal platinum shell with larger crystal grain sizes covering the carbon support surface may eliminate durability issues associated with catalyst dissolution, agglomeration, and carbon corrosion.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Evaluation of distributed gas cooling of pressurized PAFC for utility power generation

Two short stacks were pressure tested at 446 kPa (4.4 atm.) and the pressure gains were more than the theoretically predicted gains. Temperature profiles were observed to be independent of operating pressure. The pressure drop was found to be inversely proportional to operating pressure as expected. Continuous pressurized operation of a stack for 1000 hours verified the compatability of the fuel cell component design. A simple pressurization procedure was also developed. Six separate designs, covering two gas cooling schemes (DIGAS and separated) and two cooling channel geometries (straight through and treed), were analysed on the net voltage output basis. Separated cooling with 5 cells per cooler was recognized to be the best among the designs considered.

Farooque, M.↗

The dependence of electroglow on the solar flux

Data from Voyager 2 UV spectrometer observations of electroglow at wavelengths below 110 nm in the atmospheres of Saturn, Jupiter, and Uranus are presented in extensive tables and graphs, analyzed statistically, and compared with the predictions of theoretical models. Findings reported include (1) a dependence (to within 10 percent) of electroglow intensity on the inverse square of heliocentric distance, (2) Uranian electroglow spectra consistent with Rayleigh-Raman scattering of sunlight, and (3) local-time electroglow variations suggesting a solar-flux-dependent excitation mechanism. Mechanisms involving the fluorescence of solar UV radiation in the H2 Lyman and Werner bands or H(-) photolysis are discussed.

Yelle, Roger V.↗

Surface gravity waves at equilibrium with a steady wind

Observations of wave fields' spatial evolution and of gravity wave spectra S(sub omega) are analyzed on the basis of the data reported by several research groups as well as on a 2-year data set of wind and wave measurements by stationary National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration buoys near the Hawaiian Islands. We seek to clarify the role of the wave energy advection (with the wave group velocity) in the overall energy balance. This advective transfer appears to be no less important than the local (breaking wave induced) dissipation as a factor of wind-wave equilibrium. The advection is found to manifest itself in the shape of wave spectra by reducing the rate at which the spectra density of the wave energy, S(sub omega approximately omega (exp -p), falls off as the frequency increases away from the spectra peak. This and other conclusions are derived by comparing the field observations with theoretical predictions of the weak turbulence theory for a spatially inhomogeneous, statistically stationary, wave field. The observations also indicate that the typical wave age xi = C(sub 0)/U in the open ocean is much greater than the limiting value 1.2 attributed to the 'fully developed sea.' Although the observed spectra can be approximated by a power law with a single 'effective' exponent, this apparent exponent, p, is found to depend on the wave age. At high xi and at frequencies below the generation range, -p tends to -3 rather than the value of -11/3 predicted by the Zakharov-Zaslavskii theory. This deviation is interpreted as pointing to a nonconservative nature of the inverse cascade, the latter including a leakage of energy to low-wavenumber modes. Dependence of the overall effective exponent on xi is shown to be responsible for variation in the coefficients b, B, c, C appearing in empirical fetch laws, such as xi = C bar-x (exp c) and e = B bar-x (exp B), where bar-x and e are the dimensionless fetch and wave energy, respectively.

Glazman, Roman E.↗

NASA Tech Briefs, April 2012

Topics include: Computational Ghost Imaging for Remote Sensing; Digital Architecture for a Trace Gas Sensor Platform; Dispersed Fringe Sensing Analysis - DFSA; Indium Tin Oxide Resistor-Based Nitric Oxide Microsensors; Gas Composition Sensing Using Carbon Nanotube Arrays; Sensor for Boundary Shear Stress in Fluid Flow; Model-Based Method for Sensor Validation; Qualification of Engineering Camera for Long-Duration Deep Space Missions; Remotely Powered Reconfigurable Receiver for Extreme Environment Sensing Platforms; Bump Bonding Using Metal-Coated Carbon Nanotubes; In Situ Mosaic Brightness Correction; Simplex GPS and InSAR Inversion Software; Virtual Machine Language 2.1; Multi-Scale Three-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation System for Coastal Ocean Prediction; Pandora Operation and Analysis Software; Fabrication of a Cryogenic Bias Filter for Ultrasensitive Focal Plane; Processing of Nanosensors Using a Sacrificial Template Approach; High-Temperature Shape Memory Polymers; Modular Flooring System; Non-Toxic, Low-Freezing, Drop-In Replacement Heat Transfer Fluids; Materials That Enhance Efficiency and Radiation Resistance of Solar Cells; Low-Cost, Rugged High-Vacuum System; Static Gas-Charging Plug; Floating Oil-Spill Containment Device; Stemless Ball Valve; Improving Balance Function Using Low Levels of Electrical Stimulation of the Balance Organs; Oxygen-Methane Thruster; Lunar Navigation Determination System - LaNDS; Launch Method for Kites in Low-Wind or No-Wind Conditions; Supercritical CO2 Cleaning System for Planetary Protection and Contamination Control Applications; Design and Performance of a Wideband Radio Telescope; Finite Element Models for Electron Beam Freeform Fabrication Process Autonomous Information Unit for Fine-Grain Data Access Control and Information Protection in a Net-Centric System; Vehicle Detection for RCTA/ANS (Autonomous Navigation System); Image Mapping and Visual Attention on the Sensory Ego-Sphere; HyDE Framework for Stochastic and Hybrid Model-Based Diagnosis; and IMAGESEER - IMAGEs for Education and Research.

Source record↗

Evidence for the Magnetic Breakout Model in an Equatorial Coronal-Hole Jet

Small, impulsive jets commonly occur throughout the solar corona, but are especially visible in coronal holes. Evidence is mounting that jets are part of a continuum of eruptions that extends to much larger coronal mass ejections and eruptive flares. Because coronal-hole jets originate in relatively simple magnetic structures, they offer an ideal testbed for theories of energy buildup and release in the full range of solar eruptions. We analyzed an equatorial coronal-hole jet observed by the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/AIA (Atmospheric Imaging Assembly)) on 2014 January 9 in which the magnetic-field structure was consistent with the embedded-bipole topology that we identified and modeled previously as an origin of coronal jets. In addition, this event contained a mini-filament, which led to important insights into the energy storage and release mechanisms. SDO/HMI (Solar Dynamics Observatory/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) magnetograms revealed footpoint motions in the primary minority-polarity region at the eruption site, but show negligible flux emergence or cancellation for at least 16 hours before the eruption. Therefore, the free energy powering this jet probably came from magnetic shear concentrated at the polarity inversion line within the embedded bipole. We find that the observed activity sequence and its interpretation closely match the predictions of the breakout jet model, strongly supporting the hypothesis that the breakout model can explain solar eruptions on a wide range of scales.

Sun: filaments↗

Leveraging the Gravity Field Spectrum for Icy Satellite Interior Structure Determination: The case of Europa with the Europa Clipper Mission

Understanding the interior structures of icy moons is pivotal for addressing their origins and habitability. We introduce an approach employing the gravity field spectrum as an additional constraint for the inversion of differentiated icy bodies' interior structures. After developing the general methodology, we apply it to Europa, utilizing the predicted measurement capability of NASA's Europa Clipper mission, and we prove its effectiveness in resolving key geophysical parameters. Notably, we show that using the gravity field spectrum in combination with the mass and moment of inertia of the body allows us to estimate, depending on the considered end-member interior structure, the hydrosphere thickness with 4–20 km uncertainty and reliably determine the seafloor maximum topographic range and elastic thickness to within 100–600 m and 5–15 km, respectively, together with the power–degree relationship of the seafloor topography. We also show that the proposed method allows us to determine the density of the silicate mantle and the radius of the core to within 0.25 g cc −1 and 50 km, respectively.

G. Cascioli↗

Improved Assessment of Recent Trends in NOx and VOC Emissions and Ozone Production Sensitivity Regimes Using Satellite Data

This presentation highlights results from a NASA Aura Science Team and Atmospheric Composition Modeling and Analysis Program (ACMAP) project which study the capability to observe and model trends in ozone (O3) production regimes using spaceborne sensors. Ultraviolet– visible (UV–Vis) tropospheric column satellite retrievals of formaldehyde (HCHO) (a proxy for volatile organic compound [VOC] reactivity) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) (a proxy for nitrogen oxides [NOx]) are frequently used to investigate the sensitivity of O3 production to emissions of NOx and VOCs. There are challenges that come from using satellite-derived ratios of HCHO and NO2 (FNR) to study O3 production sensitivity with the largest uncertainties associated with specific spaceborne sensor’s retrieval biases and errors. This study quantifies the differences and improvements in satellite retrievals of O3 production sensitivity regimes using FNRs when moving from legacy polar orbiting satellites such as the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) onboard NASA’s Aura satellite and Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite Nadir Mapper (OMPS-NM) onboard the NASA/NOAA Suomi-NPP platform to newer, higher spatiotemporal resolution satellite sensors TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) and eventually the recently launched NASA geostationary sensor Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO). Furthermore, we investigate how using retrievals of NO2 and HCHO from these different satellites to constrain model predictions impacts the ability to accurately simulate O3 chemistry including chemical production regimes. To this end, we have conducted inverse model simulations, using the WRF-CMAQ-DDM data assimilation system at 12 km × 12 km, to constrain emissions of NOx and VOCs over the contiguous United States (CONUS) when assimilating OMI and TROPOMI retrievals of NO2 and HCHO. Two advantages of this are that we a) account for each satellite’s errors/biases in the emission estimation and b) update the prior profile to ensure that only radiance information is used for optimizing the emissions. This presentation will demonstrate: a) the varying accuracy of different satellite retrieved FNRs and ability to capture known sub-annual emission trends (e.g., seasonal, weekend/weekday) and emission anomalies during the COVID-19 lockdown of 2020, b) the differences and improvements in top-down emission estimates of NOx and VOCs when constrained by newer satellite sensors compared to legacy systems, and c) multi-sensor optimized emission estimates of summer-time NOx and VOCs between 2019-2021.

Data↗

SSME Condition Monitoring Using Neural Networks and Plume Spectral Signatures

For a variety of reasons, condition monitoring of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) has become an important concern for both ground tests and in-flight operation. The complexities of the SSME suggest that active, real-time condition monitoring should be performed to avoid large-scale or catastrophic failure of the engine. In 1986, the SSME became the subject of a plume emission spectroscopy project at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). Since then, plume emission spectroscopy has recorded many nominal tests and the qualitative spectral features of the SSME plume are now well established. Significant discoveries made with both wide-band and narrow-band plume emission spectroscopy systems led MSFC to develop the Optical Plume Anomaly Detection (OPAD) system. The OPAD system is designed to provide condition monitoring of the SSME during ground-level testing. The operational health of the engine is achieved through the acquisition of spectrally resolved plume emissions and the subsequent identification of abnormal emission levels in the plume indicative of engine erosion or component failure. Eventually, OPAD, or a derivative of the technology, could find its way on to an actual space vehicle and provide in-flight engine condition monitoring. This technology step, however, will require miniaturized hardware capable of processing plume spectral data in real-time. An objective of OPAD condition monitoring is to determine how much of an element is present in the SSME plume. The basic premise is that by knowing the element and its concentration, this could be related back to the health of components within the engine. For example, an abnormal amount of silver in the plume might signify increased wear or deterioration of a particular bearing in the engine. Once an anomaly is identified, the engine could be shut down before catastrophic failure occurs. Currently, element concentrations in the plume are determined iteratively with the help of a non-linear computer code called SPECTRA, developed at the USAF Arnold Engineering Development Center. Ostensibly, the code produces intensity versus wavelength plots (i.e., spectra) when inputs such as element concentrations, reaction temperature, and reaction pressure are provided. However, in order to provide a higher-level analysis, element concentration is not specified explicitly as an input. Instead, two quantum variables, number density and broadening parameter, are used. Past experience with OPAD data analysis has revealed that the region of primary interest in any SSME plume spectrum lies in the wavelength band of 3300 A to 4330 A. Experience has also revealed that some elements, such as iron, cobalt and nickel, cause multiple peaks over the chosen wavelength range whereas other elements (magnesium, for example) have a few, relatively isolated peaks in the chosen wavelength range. Iteration with SPECTRA as a part of OPAD data analysis is an incredibly labor intensive task and not one to be performed by hand. What is really needed is the "inverse" of the computer code but the mathematical model for the inverse mapping is tenuous at best. However, building generalized models based upon known input/output mappings while ignoring details of the governing physical model is possible using neural networks. Thus the objective of the research project described herein was to quickly and accurately predict combustion temperature and element concentrations (i.e., number density and broadening parameter) from a given spectrum using a neural network. In other words, a neural network had to be developed that would provide a generalized "inverse" of the computer code SPECTRA.

Hopkins, Randall↗

Bayesian operator inference for data-driven reduced-order modeling

This work proposes a Bayesian inference method for the reduced-order modeling of time-dependent systems. Informed by the structure of the governing equations, the task of learning a reduced-order model from data is posed as a Bayesian inverse problem with Gaussian prior and likelihood. The resulting posterior distribution characterizes the operators defining the reduced-order model, hence the predictions subsequently issued by the reduced-order model are endowed with uncertainty. The statistical moments of these predictions are estimated via a Monte Carlo sampling of the posterior distribution. Since the reduced models are fast to solve, this sampling is computationally efficient. Furthermore, the proposed Bayesian framework provides a statistical interpretation of the regularization term that is present in the deterministic operator inference problem, and the empirical Bayes approach of maximum marginal likelihood suggests a selection algorithm for the regularization hyperparameters. The proposed method is demonstrated on two examples: the compressible Euler equations with noise-corrupted observations, and a single-injector combustion process.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Code for Calculating Regional Seismic Travel Time

The RSTT software computes predictions of the travel time of seismic energy traveling from a source to a receiver through 2.5D models of the seismic velocity distribution within the Earth. The two primary applications for the RSTT library are tomographic inversion studies and seismic event location calculations. In tomographic inversions studies, a seismologist begins with number of source-receiver travel time observations and an initial starting model of the velocity distribution within the Earth. A forward travel time calculator, such as the RSTT library, is used to compute predictions of each observed travel time and all of the residuals (observed minus predicted travel time) are calculated. The Earth model is then modified in some systematic way with the goal of minimizing the residuals. The Earth model obtained in this way is assumed to be a better model than the starting model if it has lower residuals. The other major application for the RSTT library is seismic event location. Given an Earth model, an initial estimate of the location of a seismic event, and some number of observations of seismic travel time thought to have originated from that event, location codes systematically modify the estimate of the location of the event with the goal of minimizing the difference between the observed and predicted travel times. The second application, seismic event location, is routinely implemented by the military as part of its effort to monitor the Earth for nuclear tests conducted by foreign countries.

BALLARD, SANFORD↗

Regional Seismic Travel Time v.3.2.0

The RSTT software computes predictions of the travel time of seismic energy traveling from a source to a receiver through 2.5D models of the seismic velocity distribution within the Earth. The two primary applications for the RSTT library are tomographic inversion studies and seismic event location calculations. In tomographic inversions studies, a seismologist begins with number of source-receiver travel time observations and an initial starting model of the velocity distribution within the Earth. A forward travel time calculator, such as the RSTT library, is used to compute predictions of each observed travel time and all of the residuals (observed minus predicted travel time) are calculated. The Earth model is then modified in some systematic way with the goal of minimizing the residuals. The Earth model obtained in this way is assumed to be a better model than the starting model if it has lower residuals. The other major application for the RSTT library is seismic event location. Given an Earth model, an initial estimate of the location of a seismic event, and some number of observations of seismic travel time thought to have originated from that event, location codes systematically modify the estimate of the location of the event with the goal of minimizing the difference between the observed and predicted travel times. The second application, seismic event location, is routinely implemented by the military as part of its effort to monitor the Earth for nuclear tests conducted by foreign countries.

BALLARD, SANFORD↗

Using Machine-Learning Methods and Expert Prediction Probabilities to Forecast Solar Flares

It has long been known that studying connection between solar flares and properties of magnetic field in active regions is very important for understanding the flare physics and developing space weather forecasts. The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO/HMI) obtains tremendous amounts of magnetic field data products. However the operational NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) forecasts of solar flares still represent prediction probabilities issued by the experts. In this research we investigate the possibilities to enhance the daily operational flare forecasts performed at the SWPC by developing a synergy of the expert predictions and physics-based criteria, and by employing machine-learning methods. Among the physics-based criteria we consider the descriptors of the Polarity Inversion Line (PIL) and Space weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP), and derive from them daily characteristics of the entire Sun. We also consider the daily descriptors of the GOES Soft X-Ray (SXR) 1-8 Angstroms flux such as the flare history of the previous days and averaged X-Ray flux. We estimate the effectiveness in separation of flaring and non-flaring cases for each characteristic, as well as for the expert prediction probabilities, and find that some PIL, SHARP and SXR descriptors are as effective as the expert prediction probabilities and should be considered to issue the flare forecast. Finally, we train and test several Machine-Learning classification algorithms (Support Vector Classifiers with various kernel functions, k-Nearest Neighbor Classifier, Random Forest Classifier, and Neural Networks) using the most effective descriptors and expert prediction probabilities, and compare the obtained predictions with the current SWPC forecasts.

Machine-Learning↗