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NASA NTRS1992

Global relationships among the earth's radiation budget, cloudiness, volcanic aerosols, and surface temperature

Global relationships among the earth's radiation budget, cloudiness, solar constant, volcanic aerosols, and surface temperature are analyzed using data obtained by the Nimbus-7 spacecraft. It was found that these parameters were interrelated on interannual time scales, demonstrating that the interannual variability in the earth's climate (i.e., radiation budget) is detectable and observable by current spaceborne instruments. The degree of global interannual variation is on the order of tenths of percent.

Ardanuy, Philip E.↗

NASA NTRS2007

The Influence of Sea Ice on Primary Production in the Southern Ocean: A Satellite Perspective

Sea ice in the Southern Ocean is a major controlling factor on phytoplankton productivity and growth, but the relationship is modified by regional differences in atmospheric and oceanographic conditions. We used the phytoplankton biomass (binned at 7-day intervals), PAR and cloud cover data from SeaWiFS, ice concentrations data from SSM/I and AMSR-E, and sea-surface temperature data from AVHRR, in combination with a vertically integrated model to estimate primary productivity throughout the Southern Ocean (south of 60"s). We also selected six areas within the Southern Ocean and analyzed the variability of the primary productivity and trends through time, as well as the relationship of sea ice to productivity. We found substantial interannual variability in productivity from 1997 - 2005 in all regions of the Southern Ocean, and this variability appeared to be driven in large part by ice dynamics. The most productive regions of Antarctic waters were the continental shelves, which showed the earliest growth, the maximum biomass, and the greatest areal specific productivity. In contrast, no large, sustained blooms occurred in waters of greater depth (> 1,000 m). We suggest that this is due to the slightly greater mixed layer depths found in waters off the continental shelf, and that the interactive effects of iron and irradiance (that is, increased iron requirements in low irradiance environments) result in the limitation of phytoplankton biomass over large regions of the Southern Ocean.

Smith, Walker O., Jr.↗

DOE OSTI2017

Windthrow Variability in Central Amazonia

Windthrows are a recurrent disturbance in Amazonia and are an important driver of forest dynamics and carbon storage. In this study, we present for the first time the seasonal and interannual variability of windthrows, focusing on Central Amazonia, and discuss the potential meteorological factors associated with this variability. Landsat images over the 1998-2010 time period were used to detect the occurrence of windthrows, which were identified based on their spectral characteristics and shape. Here, we found that windthrows occurred every year but were more frequent between September and February. Organized convective activity associated with multicell storms embedded in mesoscale convective systems, such as northerly squall lines (that move from northeast to southwest) and southerly squall lines (that move from southwest to northeast) can cause windthrows. We also found that southerly squall lines occurred more frequently than their previously reported ~50 year interval. At the interannual scale, we did not find an association between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and windthrows.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Preindustrial Control Simulations With HadGEM3-GC3.1 for CMIP6

Preindustrial control simulations with the third Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model,run in the Global Coupled configuration 3.1 of the Met Office Unified Model (HadGEM3-GC3.1) are presentedat two resolutions. These are N216ORCA025, which has a horizontal resolution of 60 km in the atmosphereand 0.25° in the ocean, and N96ORCA1, which has a horizontal resolution of 130 km in the atmosphereand 1° in the ocean. The aim of this study is to document the climate variability in these simulations, makecomparisons against present-day observations (albeit under different forcing), and discuss differencesarising due to resolution. In terms of interannual variability in the leading modes of climate variability thetwo resolutions behave generally very similarly. Notable differences are in the westward extent of El Niñoand the pattern of Atlantic multidecadal variability, in which N216ORCA025 compares more favorably toobservations, and in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, which is far too weak in N216ORCA025. In the NorthAtlantic region, N216ORCA025 has a stronger and deeper Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, whichcompares well against observations, and reduced biases in temperature and salinity in the North Atlanticsubpolar gyre. These simulations are being provided to the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6) and provide a baseline against which further forced experiments may be assessed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2000

The East Asian Jet Stream and Asian-Pacific-American Climate

The upper-tropospheric westerly jet stream over subtropical East Asia and western Pacific, often referred to as East Asian Jet (EAJ), is an important atmospheric circulation system in the Asian-Pacific-American (APA) region during winter. It is characterized by variabilities on a wide range of time scales and exerts a strong impact on the weather and climate of the region. On the synoptic scale, the jet stream is closely linked to many phenomena such as cyclogenesis, frontogenesis, blocking, storm track activity, and the development of other atmospheric disturbances. On the seasonal time scale, the variation of the EAJ determines many characteristics of the seasonal transition of the atmospheric circulation especially over East Asia. The variabilities of the EAJ on these time scales have been relatively well documented. It has also been understood since decades ago that the interannual. variability of the EAJ is associated with many climate signals in the APA region. These signals include the persistent anomalies of the East Asian winter monsoon and the changes in diabatic heating and in the Hadley circulation. However, many questions remain for the year-to-year variabilities of the EAJ and their relation to the APA climate. For example, what is the relationship between the EAJ and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)? Will the EAJ and ENSO play different roles in modulating the APA climate? How is the jet stream linked to the non-ENSO-related sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and to the Pacific/North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern?

Yang, Song↗

NASA NTRS2003

Measurement and Interpretation of Temporal Variations of the Earths Gravity Field Using GPS and SLR Data

This investigation has had four main thrusts: 1) The analysis of seasonal variations of the Earth's gravitational field using Lageos 1 and 2 SLR data and comparisons to geophysical models. We have estimated the annual variation of the gravity field via a spherical harmonic expansion complete to degree and order 4. We have also constructed a similar model using models of the annual variation in the gravity field due to atmospheric, hydrologic, and ocean mass redistribution. These three models, when combined together, are in excellent agreement with the variations observed by satellite laser ranging. An article on these results was published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters. 2) The second thrust of our investigation has been to analyze the output of a Global Climate Model (GCM) to determine if the GRACE gravity mission can be expected to detect climate change signals. Working with Gary Russell at the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), we have determined that there are several large secular signals that GRACE might be able to detect, including secular changes in snow cover, sea ice, polar ice, ocean mass, and other variables. It is possible that some of these signals could be detected with 5 years of GRACE measurements - its hard to judge this because the interannual variability in the GCM, which could mask the climate signals, is unreliable. Certainly a follow-on GRACE mission could detect these signals when compared to the data from the initial GRACE mission.). An article on these results will be published in the journal Journal of Geophysical Research. 3) In the last year of the investigation, we developed a new technique for analyzing temporal gravity variations using "geophysical fingerprints", which was successfully demonstrated on 20 years of satellite laser ranging data [Nerem et al., 20031. 4]. We also participated in a workshop on future satellite gravity measurements, which resulted in paper on measuring ocean mass variations using GRACE [Nerem et al., 20031 and on using laser interferometry for future gravity missions [Bender et al., 20031].

Nerem, R. Steven↗

NASA NTRS1991

Ocean circulation using altimetry

Our group has been very actively involved in promoting satellite altimetry as a unique tool for observing ocean circulation and its variability. TOPEX/POSEIDON is particularly interesting as it is optimized for this purpose. It will probably be the first instrument really capable of observing the seasonal and interannual variability of subtropical and polar gyres and the first to eventually document the corresponding variability of their heat flux transport. The studies of these phenomena require data of the best quality, unbiased extraction of the signal, mixing of these satellite data with in situ measurements, and assimilation of the whole set into a dynamic description of ocean circulation. Our group intends to develop responses to all these requirements. We will concentrate mostly on the circulation of the South Atlantic and Indian Oceans: This will be done in close connection with other groups involved in the study of circulation of the tropical Atlantic Ocean, in the altimetry measurements (in particular, those of the tidal issue), and in the techniques of data assimilation in ocean circulation models.

Minster, Jean-Francois↗

NASA NTRS2022

SAGE III/ISS Ozone and NO2 Validation Using Diurnal Scaling Factors

We developed a set of solar zenith angle, latitude- and altitude-dependent scaling factors to account for the diurnal variability in ozone (O3) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) when comparing Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) III/ISS observations to observations from other times of day. The scaling factors are calculated as a function of solar zenith angle from the four-dimensional output of a global atmospheric chemistry model simulation of 2017–2020 that shows good agreement with observed vertical profiles. Using a global atmospheric chemistry model allows us to account for both chemically and dynamically driven variability. Both year-specific scale factors and a multi-year monthly climatology are available to decrease the uncertainty in inter-instrument comparisons and allow consistent comparisons between observations from different times of day. We describe the variability in the diurnal scale factors as a function of space and time. The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) appears to be a contributing factor to interannual variability in the NO2 scaling factors, leading to differences between years that switch sign with altitude. We show that application of these scaling factors improves the comparison between SAGE III/ISS and OSIRIS NO2 and between SAGE III/ISS and OMPS LP, OSIRIS, and ACE-FTS O3 observations. The comparisons between SAGE III/ISS O3 for sunrise or sunset vs. Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) daytime or nighttime observations are also more consistent when we apply the diurnal scaling factors. There is good agreement between SAGE III/ISS V5.2 ozone and correlative measurements, with differences within 5 % between 20 and 50 km when corrected for diurnal variability. Similarly, the SAGE III/ISS V5.2 NO2 agreement with correlative measurement is mostly within 10 %. While the scale factors were designed for use with SAGE III/ISS observations, they can easily be applied to other observation intercomparisons as well.

Sarah A. Strode↗

NASA NTRS2002

Variability of Winter Air Temperature in Mid-Latitude Europe

The aim of this paper is to report extreme winter/early-spring air temperature (hereinafter temperature) anomalies in mid-latitude Europe, and to discuss the underlying forcing to these interannual fluctuations. Warm advection from the North Atlantic in late winter controls the surface-air temperature, as indicated by the substantial correlation between the speed of the surface southwesterlies over the eastern North Atlantic (quantified by a specific Index Ina) and the 2-meter level air temperatures (hereinafter Ts) over Europe, 45-60 deg N, in winter. In mid-March and subsequently, the correlation drops drastically (quite often it is negative). This change in the relationship between Ts and Ina marks a transition in the control of the surface-air temperature: absorption of insolation replaces the warm advection as the dominant control. This forcing by maritime-air advection in winter was demonstrated in a previous publication, and is re-examined here in conjunction with extreme fluctuations of temperatures in Europe. We analyze here the interannual variability at its extreme by comparing warm-winter/early-spring of 1989/90 with the opposite scenario in 1995/96. For these two December-to-March periods the differences in the monthly mean temperature in Warsaw and Torun, Poland, range above 10 C. Short-term (shorter than a month) fluctuations of the temperature are likewise very strong. We conduct pentad-by-pentad analysis of the surface-maximum air temperature (hereinafter Tmax), in a selected location, examining the dependence on Ina. The increased cloudiness and higher amounts of total precipitable water, corollary effects to the warm low-level advection. in the 1989/90 winter, enhance the positive temperature anomalies. The analysis of the ocean surface winds is based on the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) dataset; ascent rates, and over land wind data are from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF); maps of 2-m temperature, cloud cover and precipitable water are from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis.

Otterman, J.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Statistical relation between monthly mean precipitable water and surface-level humidity over global oceans

Monthly summaries of atmospheric soundings taken over 17 years from 49 midocean stations at small islands and weather ships distributed over major oceans are examined. Over tropical oceans, precipitable water is found to be a better predictor of surface-level humidity than surface-level air temperature. A statistical relation in the form of a polynomial is derived; from this relation, the monthly-mean, surface-level mixing ratio can be computed from monthly-mean precipitable water. The root-mean-square differences between the measured and derived values were found to be less than 8 x 10 to the -4th over most ocean areas. Such a relation is useful in deriving large-scale evaporation and latent heat flux data from the ocean, using spaceborne observations. The temporal and spatial variabilities of data deviations from this relation are examined. This relation is found to be applicable to all major ocean basins and can be used to monitor interannual variability. Boundary-layer thermodynamics of different air masses are suggested as an explanation of some characteristics of this relation.

Liu, W. T.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Attribution of Trends and Variability in Surface Ozone over the United States

Concentrations of tropospheric ozone, a greenhouse gas and air pollutant, are impacted by changes in precursor emissions as well meteorology and influx from the stratosphere. Observations show a decreasing trend in summertime surface ozone at rural stations in the eastern United States, while some western stations show increasing trends, particularly in springtime. We use the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) global chemical transport model to investigate the roles of precursor emission changes, meteorological variability, and stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) in explaining observed trends in surface ozone from rural sites in the United States from 1991-2010. The model's interannual variability shows significant correlations with observations from many of the surface sites. We also compare the simulated ozone to ozonesonde data for several locations with sufficiently long records. We compare a simulation with time-dependent precursor emissions, including emission reductions over the United States and Europe and increases over Asia, to a simulation with fixed emissions to quantify the impact of changing emissions on the surface trends. The simulation with varying emissions reproduces much of the east-west difference in summertime ozone over the U.S., although it generally underestimates the negative trend in the East. In contrast, the fixed-emission simulation shows increasing ozone at both eastern and western sites. We will discuss possible causes of this behavior, including long-range transport and STE.

ozone↗

NASA NTRS2002

Biological-Physical Coupling in the Gulf of Maine: Satellite and Model Studies of Phytoplankton Variability

The goals of this project were to acquire, process, QC, archive and analyze SeaWiFS chlorophyll fields over the Gulf of Maine and Scotia Shelf region. The focus of the analysis effort was to calculate and quantify seasonality and interannual. variability of SeaWiFS-measured phytoplankton biomass in the study area and compare these to physical forcing and hydrography. An additional focus within this effort was on regional differences within the heterogeneous biophysical regions of the Gulf of Maine / Scotia Shelf. Overall goals were approached through the combined use of SeaWiFS and AVHRR data and the development of a coupled biology-physical numerical model.

Thomas, Andrew C.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Variability of the productive habitat in the eastern equatorial Pacific

It is shown that satellite ocean color data can be used to define the spatial extent of the region of enhanced biological production (the productive habitat) in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The degree of interannual variability in the areal extent of the productive habitat and in the estimated primary production of the region is determined. Frequency distributions of satellite-derived pigment concentrations are used to determine whether major changes in phytoplankton biomass have taken place from one period to the next.

Feldman, Gene Carl↗

DOE OSTI2023

Projecting Future Energy Production from Operating Wind Farms in North America. Part I: Dynamical Downscaling

Abstract New simulations at 12-km grid spacing with the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) Model nested in the MPI Earth System Model (ESM) are used to quantify possible changes in wind power generation potential as a result of global warming. Annual capacity factors (CF; measures of electrical power production) computed by applying a power curve to hourly wind speeds at wind turbine hub height from this simulation are also used to illustrate the pitfalls in seeking to infer changes in wind power generation directly from low-spatial-resolution and time-averaged ESM output. WRF-derived CF are evaluated using observed daily CF from operating wind farms. The spatial correlation coefficient between modeled and observed mean CF is 0.65, and the root-mean-square error is 5.4 percentage points. Output from the MPI-WRF Model chain also captures some of the seasonal variability and the probability distribution of daily CF at operating wind farms. Projections of mean annual CF (CF A ) indicate no change to 2050 in the southern Great Plains and Northeast. Interannual variability of CF A increases in the Midwest, and CF A declines by up to 2 percentage points in the northern Great Plains. The probability of wind droughts (extended periods with anomalously low production) and wind bonus periods (high production) remains unchanged over most of the eastern United States. The probability of wind bonus periods exhibits some evidence of higher values over the Midwest in the 2040s, whereas the converse is true over the northern Great Plains. Significance Statement Wind energy is playing an increasingly important role in low-carbon-emission electricity generation. It is a “weather dependent” renewable energy source, and thus changes in the global atmosphere may cause changes in regional wind power production (PP) potential. We use PP data from operating wind farms to demonstrate that regional simulations exhibit skill in capturing actual power production. Projections to the middle of this century indicate that over most of North America east of the Rocky Mountains annual expected PP is largely unchanged, as is the probability of extended periods of anomalously high or low production. Any small declines in annual PP are of much smaller magnitude than changes due to technological innovation over the last two decades.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

NASA NTRS2013

Spring-Summer Temperatures Since AD 1780 Reconstructed from Stable Oxygen Isotope Ratios in White Spruce Tree-Rings from the Mackenzie Delta, Northwestern Canada

High-latitude delta(exp 18)O archives deriving from meteoric water (e.g., tree-rings and ice-cores) can provide valuable information on past temperature variability, but stationarity of temperature signals in these archives depends on the stability of moisture source/trajectory and precipitation seasonality, both of which can be affected by atmospheric circulation changes. A tree-ring delta(exp 18)O record (AD 1780-2003) from the Mackenzie Delta is evaluated as a temperature proxy based on linear regression diagnostics. The primary source of moisture for this region is the North Pacific and, thus, North Pacific atmospheric circulation variability could potentially affect the tree-ring delta(exp 18)O-temperature signal. Over the instrumental period (AD 1892-2003), tree-ring delta(exp 18)O explained 29% of interannual variability in April-July minimum temperatures, and the explained variability increases substantially at lower-frequencies. A split-period calibration/verification analysis found the delta(exp 18)O-temperature relation was time-stable, which supported a temperature reconstruction back to AD 1780. The stability of the delta(exp 18)O-temperature signal indirectly implies the study region is insensitive to North Pacific circulation effects, since North Pacific circulation was not constant over the calibration period. Simulations from the NASA-GISS ModelE isotope-enabled general circulation model confirm that meteoric delta(exp 18)O and precipitation seasonality in the study region are likely insensitive to North Pacific circulation effects, highlighting the paleoclimatic value of tree-ring and possibly other delta(exp 18)O records from this region. Our delta(exp 18)O-based temperature reconstruction is the first of its kind in northwestern North America, and one of few worldwide, and provides a long-term context for evaluating recent climate warming in the Mackenzie Delta region.

Canada↗

DOE OSTI2017

Observed and Simulated Spring and Summer Dryness in the United States: The Impact of the Pacific Sea Surface Temperature and Beyond

This study characterizes major modes of variability in the spring and summer U.S. dryness, as measured by the seasonal total number of dry (no-precipitation) days, and assesses the impact of the Pacific sea surface temperature. The most severe spring and summer dry conditions typically occur in the western United States. Maximum covariance analysis reveals that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is the primary driver of interannual variability in the U.S. dryness. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) also contributes in part (especially during spring). Beyond the PDO and ENSO impact, interannual variations in spring dryness exhibit a meridional dipole structure, while variations during summer are related to a northwest-southeast (NW-SE) oriented dipole. The spring meridional dipole is associated with circulation anomalies resembling the West Pacific teleconnection pattern, while the summer NW-SE dipole is a downstream manifestation of a quasi-stationary wave train. A parallel analysis of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project's fifth phase models' historical simulations demonstrates that such models generally capture the relation between U.S. dryness and the PDO, albeit with varying degrees of accuracy. The models also show reasonable skill in simulating the residual meridional dipole in spring dryness variability but have difficulty representing the NW-SE oriented dipole occurring during summer. The model shortcomings isolated here largely arise from a misrepresentation of the corresponding large-scale circulation and moisture transport anomalies. These model biases suggest that great challenges exist in our ongoing pursuit of reliable projections of the U.S. hydroclimate variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1993

Differentiating the role of land surface variability and cloudiness variability on global energy transport within the atmosphere and oceans

The following provides the final report on NASA IDP Project NAGW-1840 'Differentiating the Role of Land Surface Variability on Global Energy Transport within the Atmosphere and Oceans'. The project was designed to investigate the role of regional perturbations in the earth radiation budget on atmospheric and oceanic energy transports on an interannual basis. We proposed a modeling strategy based on an entropy extremum principle that could be used to separate the transports into oceanic and atmospheric components so as to better understand the effects of regional perturbations at the distinct atmospheric and oceanic time scales. The original focus was to consider the maintenance and year-to-year modulation of a large-scale, low-latitude North African-West Pacific Ocean net radiation dipole, which we had detected in the Nimbus 6 and 7 record of earth radiation budget measurements, and which necessitated significant cross-meridional energy transports to maintain global equilibrium. In addition, perturbations in the radiation balance term were to be partitioned into cloud-induced and surface-induced components to better understand the feedbacks between clouds and surface boundary conditions on interannual variability of the radiation balance.

Smith, Eric A.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Anthropogenic warming drives earlier wildfire season onset in California

Annual wildfire area in California has rapidly grown in recent decades, with increasingly negative impacts on people. The fire season is also lengthening, with an earlier onset. This trend has been hypothesized to be driven by anthropogenic warming, but it has yet to be quantitatively attributed to climate drivers. Using a comprehensive fire occurrence dataset, we analyze fire season onset and climate controls on its variability and change during 1992–2020 in 13 California ecoregions. Northern California ecoregions show stronger trends toward earlier onset compared to more arid southern California ecoregions. Onset has trended earlier for all but one ecoregion. Interannual variability of onset is dominated by climate variability and its influence on fuel moisture. Trend attribution inferred from onset-climate relationships suggests that anthropogenic warming advanced fire season onset by 6 to 46 days during 1992–2020 in 11 of 13 ecoregions. Continued warming is expected to further promote earlier fire season onsets.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗