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At least 415 records · Page 23

LLMs for Mfg.—On the State of Large Language Models and Applications to Manufacturing

Additive Manufacturing (AM), referred to as 3D printing, has emerged as a key pillar of Industry 4.0 enabling layer-by-layer fabrication of intricate geometries from CAD models. In parallel, Large Language Models (LLMs), deep learning models for natural language generation trained on vast text corpora, have demonstrated unprecedented capabilities in understanding and generating human-like text. The convergence of these trends opens new opportunities at the intersection of AM and AI/ML, where LLMs can assist engineers and researchers in design, manufacture planning, and knowledge discovery. Recent academic work has begun to explore LLM applications in AM and adjacent fields, such as material science, mechanical engineering, and design for additive manufacturing. This exploration ranges from intelligent process planning to domain-specific knowledge retrieval. This survey provides a comprehensive review of current developments, focusing on peer-reviewed literature contributions that apply, adapt, and advance LLMs in general and domain-specific domains. We analyze state-of-the-art (SOTA) techniques, such as fine-tuning foundational models for specific domains, retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) pipelines, knowledge graph integration, and delve into the architectures and evaluation methods employed. The goal of this survey is to inform researchers and practitioners of the current capabilities and limitations of LLMs in general and in domain-specific applications, and to outline how these models are being tailored to meet the requirements of these applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

JPL Innovation Foundry

Space science missions are increasingly challenged today: in ambition, by increasingly sophisticated hypotheses tested; in development, by the increasing complexity of advanced technologies; in budgeting, by the decline of flagship-class mission opportunities; in management, by expectations for breakthrough science despite a risk-averse programmatic climate; and in planning, by increasing competition for scarce resources. How are the space-science missions of tomorrow being formulated? The paper describes the JPL Innovation Foundry, created in 2011, to respond to this evolving context. The Foundry integrates methods, tools, and experts that span the mission concept lifecycle. Grounded in JPL's heritage of missions, flight instruments, mission proposals, and concept innovation, the Foundry seeks to provide continuity of support and cost-effective, on-call access to the right domain experts at the right time, as science definition teams and Principal Investigators mature mission ideas from "cocktail napkin" to PDR. The Foundry blends JPL capabilities in proposal development and concurrent engineering, including Team X, with new approaches for open-ended concept exploration in earlier, cost-constrained phases, and with ongoing research and technology projects. It applies complexity and cost models, projectformulation lessons learned, and strategy analyses appropriate to each level of concept maturity. The Foundry is organizationally integrated with JPL formulation program offices; staffed by JPL's line organizations for engineering, science, and costing; and overseen by senior Laboratory leaders to assure experienced coordination and review. Incubation of each concept is tailored depending on its maturity and proposal history, and its highest leverage modeling and analysis needs.

mission development↗

Lessons Learned in Decadal Planning in Space Science

This summary has been prepared by the workshop rapporteurs as a factual summary of what occurred at the workshop. The planning committee's role was limited to planning and convening the workshop. The views contained in the report are those of individual workshop participants and do not necessarily represent the views of all workshop participants, the planning committee, or the National Research Council. This summary was written using video recordings of the entire workshop proceedings. Speakers attributed in this summary were not asked to review the workshop summary before its release. This workshop summary has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC's Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the summary meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this summary: George Paulikas, The Aerospace Corporation (retired), Marcia Rieke, University of Arizona, Kunio Sayanagi, Hampton University, Marcia Smith, Space and Technology Policy Group, LLC, and Warren Washington, National Center for Atmospheric Research. Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they did not see the final draft of the workshop summary before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Kenneth Kellermann, National Radio Astronomy Observatory. Appointed by the NRC, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authors and the institution.

Groswald, Lewis↗

Lessons Learned from Daily Uplink Operations during the Deep Impact Mission

The daily preparation of uplink products (commands and files) for Deep Impact was as problematic as the final encounter images were spectacular. The operations team was faced with many challenges during the six-month mission to comet Tempel One of the biggest difficulties was that the Deep Impact Flyby and Impactor vehicles necessitated a high volume of uplink products while also utilizing a new uplink file transfer capability. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) Multi-Mission Ground Systems and Services (MGSS) Mission Planning and Sequence Team (MPST) had the responsibility of preparing the uplink products for use on the two spacecraft. These responsibilities included processing nearly 15,000 flight products, modeling the states of the spacecraft during all activities for subsystem review, and ensuring that the proper commands and files were uplinked to the spacecraft. To guarantee this transpired and the health and safety of the two spacecraft were not jeopardized several new ground scripts and procedures were developed while the Deep Impact Flyby and Impactor spacecraft were en route to their encounter with Tempel-1. These scripts underwent several adaptations throughout the entire mission up until three days before the separation of the Flyby and Impactor vehicles. The problems presented by Deep Impact's daily operations and the development of scripts and procedures to ease those challenges resulted in several valuable lessons learned. These lessons are now being integrated into the design of current and future MGSS missions at JPL.

uplink↗

A Multi-Scale Computational Platform for Predictive Modeling of Corrosion in Al-Steel Joints (Final Report)

The research team proposed to develop innovative multi-scale models to predict corrosion and the resulting mechanical performances in aluminum-steel joints. The methods of joining considered are resistance spot welding, self-piercing riveting, and rivet-welding, all suitable for mass production applications. The multi-scale models integrate high throughput first-principle calculations based on density functional theory (DFT), high throughput calculation of phase diagrams (CALPHAD) modeling, and finite element method (FEM) simulations. These models are to be validated through laboratory experiments. Furthermore, the models are available as open source so as to enable scientists and engineers in the community to adapt and contribute to the development and application. The approaches rely on the research team’s extensive experience on the prediction of properties of individual phases at finite temperatures and variable compositions through DFT calculations, and our broad expertise on dissimilar material joining and their corrosion. The proposed computational framework enables high throughput computations for improved predictions of corrosion and the associated mechanical performance in dissimilar material joints, resulting in significant reduction in computational time needed by the current state-of-the-art methods. With the participation of researchers from three universities, an auto manufacturer, two manufacturing technology/equipment suppliers, and a software developer/vendor, the interdisciplinary research team applies the technical development on both phase-based modeling and laboratory experiments into the automobile body joining processes for validation and technology demonstration. The global cost of corrosion was estimated at about 3.4% of the global GDP in 2013. By using available corrosion control practices, it is estimated a saving between 15-35% of the cost of corrosion. In the U.S., more than $276 billion is spent repairing corrosion damage. Prediction of the corrosion and its impact on performance of the dissimilar material joints is critical for reducing the massive number of the current corrosion-based recalls for automobiles. Thus, the project goal is to develop models to enable predictive maintenance and end-of-life planning of multi-metal joints with risk of corrosion under different conditions such as exposure to high temperatures in summer and salt solutions in winter, quantified through its pH. An academia-industry consortium led by the University of Michigan and including Pennsylvania State University, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, University of Georgia, General Motors Company, Livermore Software Technology Corporation, and Optimal Process Technologies, LLC. created multi-scale models for prediction of corrosion in aluminum-steel joint structures such of them used in vehicle subassemblies – chassis and transmission systems. Starting from the first principle calculations, the team developed mathematical and data-driven models to predict the metallic components, which are formed during joining of two metals, for example aluminum and steel - a lightweight multilateral system which is currently used in more than 60% car bodies. These models were used for simulating chemical reactions that are happening when the joining metallic components are exposed to high temperatures and different pH values. The team was able to predict how the corrosion installs on the metallic components and how they lead to a sudden failure of components in cars. Newly developed machine learning algorithms combining Science, Technology, Engineering and Math disciplines, advanced finite element simulation and experimental validations have been integrated in a platform for prediction of the corrosion evolution and prediction the failure of joints under mechanical loadings and fatigue. Moreover, based on machine learning and inverse analysis, the team proposed solutions for designing new metallic alloys less susceptible to corrosion when joining multi-material assembles. An average of 4% error compared with experiments was achieved for the most common joints that are used in vehicle subassemblies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Development of a Framework for Data Integration, Assimilation, and Learning for Geological Carbon Sequestration (DIAL-GCS) (Final Report)

This project aimed to develop and demonstrate a Data Integration, Assimilation, and Learning framework for geologic carbon sequestration projects (DIAL-GCS). DIAL-GCS is an intelligence monitoring system (IMS) for automating GCS closed-loop management by leveraging recent developments in machine learning technologies, complex event processing (CEP), and reduced-order modeling. The safe and efficient operation of GCS repositories requires integrated monitoring to track the injected CO¬2 as it moves within a storage reservoir. GCS projects are data intensive, as a result of proliferation of digital instrumentation and smart-sensing technologies. GCS projects are also resource intensive, often requiring multidisciplinary teams performing different monitoring, verification, accounting (MVA) tasks throughout the lifecycle of a project to ensure secure containment of injected CO2. The success of GCS thus depends in a large part on our ability to access, assimilate, and analyze heterogeneous data and information sources in a timely manner. This project included a number of meaningful and necessary tasks to transform the human domain knowledge into machine-interpretable rules for automating knowledge extraction and discovery in GCS. The specific technical objectives of the proposed DIAL-GCS project were to develop an ontology-driven GCS data management module for storing, querying, and exchanging GCS data (both historic and live sensor data) from multiple sources and in heterogeneous formats. Incorporate a CEP engine for detecting abnormal situations by seamlessly combining expert knowledge, rule-based reasoning, and machine learning. Enable uncertainty quantification and predictive analytics using a combination of coupled-process modeling, AI/ML methods, and reduced-order modeling, and integrate and demonstrate the system’s capabilities with both real and simulated data. As far as we know, this is one of the first projects aimed to develop intelligent monitoring systems (IMS) targeting the GCS. Under this project, the team had developed a large number of web applications and scientific algorithms that contribute the main theme of intelligent monitoring. The team has published more than a dozen peer reviewed papers and disseminated the research results at multiple technical meetings.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Improving Prediction of Surface Solar Irradiance Variability by Integrating Observed Cloud Characteristics and Machine Learning

A 5-year, 1-minute resolution observational dataset of clouds and solar radiation was produced that includes two metrics of the variability in surface solar irradiance due to cloud type and fractional sky cover. Multiple regression models were trained to fit observations of surface solar irradiance variability from those two cloud property predictors. We found that ensemble tree-based methods, Random Forest and Gradient Boosting Machine, have the least overfitting issues and showed the best performance with an R2 of 0.42. While the observational data trained in this study was only from one site, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) site in Oklahoma, initial comparisons of the seasonality of the statistics suggest that these results are relatively weather regime independent; the generality of such a finding across sites will be tested in future work. The observational data and developed machine learning model are being used to create a numerical weather prediction model parameterization to enable day-ahead solar variability prediction in a computationally efficient way. This is a first step towards creating a new paradigm of predicting day-ahead variability with the potential to provide a new tool to improve grid operation, planning, and resilience.

Riihimaki, Laura↗

Environmental Testing of the OVEN System for Lunar Water Extraction and Prospecting

Introduction: The presence of water ice in permanently shadowed regions on the lunar surface [1] may enable a sustained human presence on the Moon with minimal need for consumables. However, in order to develop a long term utilization plan that includes the usage of in-situ water we must first understand the abundance, stratigraphy and distribution of this re-source. Multiple space agencies currently have plans for lunar water prospecting missions. The Optimized Volatile Extraction Node (OVEN) was designed for water prospecting missions that require samples to be weighed, sealed, and heated as the means of determining water concentration. This method of water quantification necessitates a fair amount of automation, so a rigorous environmental test program was performed in order to build confidence in the performance of the OVEN design. The work presented here describes the OVEN environmental test program as well as ongoing efforts to improve on the design. Vibration: The OVEN participated in two rounds of random vibration tests. The first test was a stand-alone test performed at the Energy Systems Test Area of the Johnson Space Center. The second test was an integrated test with the mobile platform developed for the Resource Prospector project. The OVEN survived both tests without damage, but the tests did provide valuable lessons learned with regards to specific operations. Thermal Vacuum: The OVEN was successfully demonstrated at a temperature range of -50 to 75 C in a thermal vacuum chamber. The need to heat motor gearboxes at lower temperatures was predetermined so this test program was completed by implementing a method of gearbox heating that used the existing circuitry within the motors. Dust: A custom dynamometer was built in order to determine the torque required to move the various mechanisms within the OVEN at a range of temperatures. The OVEN system was coated with lunar dust simulant in order to determine mechanism torques under a worst-case operating condition. Sublimation: Sublimation losses within the OVEN were quantified through a series of test configurations, including an integrated test in a thermal vacuum chamber at Glenn Research Center [2]. Current Work: The OVEN subsystem is currently not a component of any existing prospecting missions, but work continues that will take the lessons learned from previous environmental tests and improve on the design in order to be considered for future prospecting opportunities. References: [1] Colaprete, A., Schultz, P., Heldmann, J., Wooden, D., Shirley, M., Ennico, K., ... & Sollitt, L. (2010). Detection of water in the LCROSS ejecta plume. science, 330(6003), 463-468. [2] Kleinhenz, J., Smith, J., Roush, T., Colaprete, A., Zacny, K., Paulsen, G., ... & Paz, A. (2018). Volatiles Loss from water bearing regolith simulant at Lunar Environments. In Earth and Space 2018: Engineering for Extreme Environments (pp. 454-466). Reston, VA: American Society of Civil Engineers.

A Paz↗

Development and Field Testing of the FootFall Planning System for the ATHLETE Robots

The FootFall Planning System is a ground-based planning and decision support system designed to facilitate the control of walking activities for the ATHLETE (All-Terrain Hex-Limbed Extra-Terrestrial Explorer) family of robots. ATHLETE was developed at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and is a large six-legged robot designed to serve multiple roles during manned and unmanned missions to the Moon; its roles include transportation, construction and exploration. Over the four years from 2006 through 2010 the FootFall Planning System was developed and adapted to two generations of the ATHLETE robots and tested at two analog field sites (the Human Robotic Systems Project's Integrated Field Test at Moses Lake, Washington, June 2008, and the Desert Research and Technology Studies (D-RATS), held at Black Point Lava Flow in Arizona, September 2010). Having 42 degrees of kinematic freedom, standing to a maximum height of just over 4 meters, and having a payload capacity of 450 kg in Earth gravity, the current version of the ATHLETE robot is a uniquely complex system. A central challenge to this work was the compliance of the high-DOF (Degree Of Freedom) robot, especially the compliance of the wheels, which affected many aspects of statically-stable walking. This paper will review the history of the development of the FootFall system, sharing design decisions, field test experiences, and the lessons learned concerning compliance and self-awareness.

SunSpiral, Vytas↗

I Know I'm Right, But Does My Phone?

Transportation is the largest source of green-house gas emissions in the United States. Reducing transportation emissions depends on human travel behavior, which relies on local land use and planning. Travel diaries, consisting of sequences of trips between places for a particular individual, are typically used to instrument human travel behavior. However, these diaries are only as accurate as the underlying methods used to construct them. Travel diary algorithms have been a popular research topic since the advent of GPS tracking surveys. Mode inference algorithms in particular have been well represented in literature. However, these algorithms have typically been validated using prompted recall of pre-segmented trips, which doesn't account for segmentation error, thus disregarding the continuity of mode inference. Furthermore, phone operating systems and applications have adopted battery-conserving techniques, but we are not aware of prior work that has characterized the resulting data collection errors or evaluated procedures to mitigate them. We introduce a framework to evaluate accuracy of trip length computations and mode inference. We develop a temporal alignment procedure in analyzing continuous mode-segmented trajectories for groups of trips. We then apply our framework to evaluate an example set of travel diary algorithms from the open-source OpenPATH travel diary platform against MobilityNet, a public dataset containing information from three artificial timelines that cover 15 different travel modes. Our results show that inference based on an integration with map features results in weighted F_1 scores of 0.60 (iOS) and 0.74 (android). We also show that OpenPATH tends to under count trip length, with mean of signed relative error of -0.0438 on android and -0.0704 on iOS. We hope that other travel diary algorithms will be evaluated using this standardized process, and that the results used to understand and improve the state-of-the-art in this field.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

Optimizing Information Automation Using a New Method Based on System-Theoretic Process Analysis: Tool Development and Method Evaluation

This report is an update to a prior report that describes progress and findings for a program of research supporting the design and optimization of information automation systems for nuclear power plants. Much of the domestic nuclear fleet is currently focused on modernizing technologies and processes, including transitioning toward digitalization in the control room and throughout the plant, along with a greater interest in the use of automation, artificial intelligence, robotics, and other emerging technologies. While there are significant opportunities to apply these technologies toward greater plant safety, efficiency, and overall cost-effectiveness, optimizing their design and avoiding potential safety and performance risks depends on ensuring that human performance-related organizational and technical design issues are identified and addressed early in the design process. This report describes modeling tools and techniques, based on sociotechnical systems theory, to support these design goals and their application in the current research effort. The report is primarily intended for senior nuclear energy stakeholders, including regulators, corporate management, and senior plant management. We have developed and employed a method to design an optimized information automation ecosystem (IAE) based on the systems-theoretic constructs underlying sociotechnical systems theory in general and the Systems-Theoretic Accident Modeling and Processes (STAMP) approach in particular. We argue that an IAE can be modeled as an interactive information control system whose behavior can be understood in terms of dynamic control, feedback, and communication relationships amongst the system’s technical and organizational components. We have employed two STAMP-based tools in this effort. The first is Causal Analysis based on STAMP (CAST), an accident and incident analysis technique that was used to examine a performance- and safety-related incident at an industry partner’s plant involving the unintentional activation of an emergency diesel generator. This analysis provided insight into the behavior of the plant’s current information control structure within the context of a specific, significant event. The second tool is Systems Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) which is a proactive risk analysis tool used to examine existing and potential, planned sociotechnical systems. STPA was used to identify risk factors in the current design of a generic nuclear power plant (NPP) preventive maintenance system. Our analyses focused on identifying near-term system improvements and longer-term design requirements for an optimized IAE system. CAST analysis findings indicate an important underlying contributor to the incident under investigation, and a significant risk to information automation system performance, was perceived time and schedule pressure, which exposed weaknesses in interdepartmental coordination between and within responsible plant organizations and challenged the resilience of established plant processes, until a human caused the eventual event. These findings are discussed in terms of their risk to overall system performance and their implications for information automation system resilience and brittleness. STPA findings exposed several areas of concern in the design of current preventive maintenance systems. We also present two preliminary information automation models. The proactive issue resolution (PIR) model is a test case of an information automation concept with significant near-term potential for application and subsequent reduction in significant plant events. The IAE model is a more general representation of a broader, plantwide information automation system and represents an end-state vision for our work. From our results, we have generated an initial set of preliminary system-level requirements and safety constraints for these models. We have also focused on early development of easy to learn, easy to use “transportable” tools for sociotechnical systems analysis. We intend these to be used by NPP personnel as a means of gaining reliable and relatively quick insight into (1) sociotechnical systems factors impacting incidents and accidents, (2) potential sociotechnical risk factors in existing or planned system designs, and (3) potential weaknesses in a system’s safety and/or information control structure. We conclude the report with a set of summary recommendations, a discussion of planned and potential follow-on research and development, and a draft list of system-level requirements and safety constraints for optimized information automation systems.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Cassini Titan Science Integration: Getting a 'Jumpstart' on the Process

The Cassini spacecraft has been in orbit for five years, returning a wealth of scientific data from Titan and the Saturn system. The mission is a cooperative undertaking between NASA, ESA and the Italian Space Agency and the project is currently planning for a second extension of the mission. The Cassini Solstice Mission (CSM) will extend the mission's lifetime until Saturn's northern summer solstice in 2017. The Titan Orbiter Science Team (TOST) has the task of integrating the science observations for all 126 targeted Titan flybys (44 in the Prime Mission, 26 in the first extension (Equinox Mission), and 56 in the second extension (Solstice Mission)) contained in the chosen trajectory. Cassini science instruments are body-fixed with limited ability to articulate; thus, the spacecraft pointing during the flybys must be allocated among the instruments to accomplish the mission's science goals. The science that can be accomplished on each Titan flyby also critically depends on the closest approach altitude, which is in turn determined by the attitude, but changing the altitude impacts the overall trajectory for the Solstice Mission. During the Prime and Extended missions, TOST has learned that the best way to achieve Cassini's Titan science goals is via a 'jumpstart' process prior to final delivery of the trajectory. The jumpstart is driven by the desire to balance Titan science across the entire set of flybys during the CSM, and to influence any changes (tweaks) to the flyby altitudes. By the end of the jumpstart, TOST produces Master Timelines for each flyby, identifying each flyby's prime science observations and allocating control of the spacecraft attitude to specific instrument teams. In addition, developing timelines early, while the science and operations teams are still fully funded, decreases the future workload in integration and implementation.

Steadman, Kimberly B.↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-35202-DND

On March 20th, 2019, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Sistema de la Integración Centroamericana (SICA, Central American Integration System) issued a joint statement sharing their mutual desire to make Earth observations and remote sensing data and products more readily available to SICA member countries to inform their decision making. Regional capacity building in the use of Earth observations was one of the many opportunities for collaboration highlighted in this joint statement. As an initial capacity building effort, NASA deployed a series of feasibility projects through the DEVELOP Program to engage emerging and transitioning professionals with SICA member state partner agencies. The initial projects in summer 2019 addressed landslides in the Dominican Republic, near-coastal flooding in Guatemala and El Salvador, and environmental challenges to the Mesoamerican Reef off the coast of Belize. Additional projects were planned for fall 2019 with the objective of impacting environmental challenges for the remaining SICA member states. This presentation will summarize the results of projects conducted to date, address the lessons learned in the process of rapid engagement with regional entities, and consider how the partnership may evolve over time.

Kenton Ross↗

Design, Preparation, and Execution of the 100-AV Field Test for the CIRCLES Consortium: Methodology and Implementation of the Largest Mobile Traffic Control Experiment to Date

This article presents the comprehensive design, setup, execution, and evaluation of the MegaVanderTest (MVT) experiment conducted by the Congestion Impacts Reduction via CAV-in-the-Loop Lagrangian Energy Smoothing (CIRCLES) Consortium, which aimed to mitigate traffic congestion using partially autonomous vehicles (AVs) (see “Summary”). The experiment involved 100 vehicles on Nashville’s Interstate 24 (I-24) highway, utilizing various control algorithms to smooth stop-and-go traffic waves. The execution of the MVT experiment required a coordinated effort from multiple teams. This article details the meticulous planning process, the coordinated efforts of multiple teams, and the innovative use of a dynamic agent-based simulation framework for traffic evaluation. Here, the contributions of this work include demonstrating and providing a detailed roadmap for large-scale live traffic experiments, illustrating the lessons learned from the MVT experiment, and introducing the other articles in this issue and their complementary relationship in the MVT experiment.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Experimental Results of Integrated Refrigeration and Storage System Testing

Launch operations engineers at the Kennedy Space Center have identified an Integrated Refrigeration and Storage system as a promising technology to reduce launch costs and enable advanced cryogenic operations. This system uses a close cycle Brayton refrigerator to remove energy from the stored cryogenic propellant. This allows for the potential of a zero loss storage and transfer system, as well and control of the state of the propellant through densification or re-liquefaction. However, the behavior of the fluid in this type of system is different than typical cryogenic behavior, and there will be a learning curve associated with its use. A 400 liter research cryostat has been designed, fabricated and delivered to KSC to test the thermo fluid behavior of liquid oxygen as energy is removed from the cryogen by a simulated DC cycle cryocooler. Results of the initial testing phase focusing on heat exchanger characterization and zero loss storage operations using liquid oxygen are presented in this paper. Future plans for testing of oxygen densification tests and oxygen liquefaction tests will also be discussed. KEYWORDS: Liquid Oxygen, Refrigeration, Storage

Notardonato, W. U.↗

NASA Software Cost Estimation Model: An Analogy Based Estimation Model

The cost estimation of software development activities is increasingly critical for large scale integrated projects such as those at DOD and NASA especially as the software systems become larger and more complex. As an example MSL (Mars Scientific Laboratory) developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory launched with over 2 million lines of code making it the largest robotic spacecraft ever flown (Based on the size of the software). Software development activities are also notorious for their cost growth, with NASA flight software averaging over 50% cost growth. All across the agency, estimators and analysts are increasingly being tasked to develop reliable cost estimates in support of program planning and execution. While there has been extensive work on improving parametric methods there is very little focus on the use of models based on analogy and clustering algorithms. In this paper we summarize our findings on effort/cost model estimation and model development based on ten years of software effort estimation research using data mining and machine learning methods to develop estimation models based on analogy and clustering. The NASA Software Cost Model performance is evaluated by comparing it to COCOMO II, linear regression, and K-­ nearest neighbor prediction model performance on the same data set.

Hihn, Jairus↗

Develop a weather-aware climate model to understand and predict extremes and associated power outages and renewable energy shortages with uncertainty-aware and physics-informed machine learning

Focal Area(s): The focus area is predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components with a particular emphasis on extreme weather in Atmospheric Science and power outages and shortages in Energy Science. Science Challenge: Predicting weather extremes (e.g., heavy precipitation, strong wind, and large hailstones), and weather-related power system outages and shortages can mitigate economic losses, save lives, support renewables integration, and improve power system resiliency. However, currently, the poor reliability and large uncertainty associated with the weather extreme prediction in the current climate models make the problem intractable. The key challenges are: (1) physical factors like green-house gases (GHGs), aerosols, and land use and land cover (LULC) can significantly impact extreme storms, but the understanding of these impacts is limited, particularly globally; (2) the convective permitting resolutions needed to model severe convective storms and their impacts are computationally prohibitive with global climate models (GCMs); (3) interactions between weather extremes and power system outages are complex and subject to great uncertainty. Current outage prediction models are short lead (~ 3 days), which do not allow for long-time planning of energy production and distribution. Moreover, we have limited capacity to predict weather events leading to sustained shortages in a renewable-energy-dominated power system. These challenges drive motivation for mechanistic understanding and reliable and efficient predictive modeling of extremes and their impacts from the sub-seasonal to long term projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Artificial Intelligence: Powering Human Exploration of the Moon and Mars

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a growing field of computa- tional science techniques designed to mimic functions per- formed by people. Advancements in autonomy will depend on a portfolio of AI technologies. Automated planning and scheduling is a venerable field of study in AI, and is needed for a variety of mission planning functions. Plan execution technology is less well studied, but important for auton- omy and robotics. Specialized forms of automated reason- ing and machine learning are key technologies to enable fault management. Over the past decade, the NASA Au- tonomous Systems and Operations (ASO) project has devel- oped and demonstrated numerous autonomy enabling tech- nologies employing AI techniques. Our work has employed AI in three distinct ways to enable autonomous mission op- erations capabilities. Crew Autonomy gives astronauts tools to assist in the performance of each of these mission oper-ations functions. Vehicle System Management uses AI tech- niques to turn the astronaut's spacecraft into a robot, allow- ing it to operate when astronauts are not present, or to reduce astronaut workload. AI technology also enables Autonomous Robots as crew assistants or proxies when the crew are not present. When these capabilities are used to enable astro- nauts to operate autonomously, they must be integrated with user interfaces, introducing numerous human factors con- siderations; when these capabilities are used to enable vehi- cle system management, they must be integrated with flight software, and run on embedded processors under the control of real-time operating systems.We first describe human spaceflight mission operations capabilities. The remainder of the paper will describe the ASO project, and the development and demonstration per- formed by ASO since 2011. We will describe the AI tech- niques behind each of these demonstrations, which include a variety of symbolic automated reasoning and machine learn- ing based approaches. Finally, we conclude with an assess- ment of future development needs for AI to enable NASA's future Exploration missions.

Mission Operations↗